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Comments on the age distribution of patientsFrom the above frequency graph Frequency Histogram, we easily see the majority of patients visit the hospital A on 20/8/2008 are greater than

Subject: BUAD555 Decision Science and Statistic for Managers

Class: GaMBA01.C02 Student: Truong Minh Chien, ID # 113408

Final Individual Assessment TOPIC: APPLIED STATISTIC FOR BUSINESS AND

ORGANIZATION

INTRODUCTION

1 – Background :

Statistics in the business application is the performance of statistics probability theory to the realistic business environment in order to serve purposes such as collection - data processing, sample surveys, studies the relationship between phenomena, predict and help the CEO decision-making within the specific business scene As we all know in statistics business, it includes descriptive statistics and statistical inference Actually, in limited of this article, I only apply statistical inference to solve problems specific topic request

2 - Purpose

Applying statistical theory to solve exercises 2.2, 5.16 and 8.3 of the textbook Since then draw the lessons of experience and practical help for the operation of Son Trang Ly Limited Company

3 - Progress

This report is realized bases upon below steps :

i Understand and gather information

ii Calculated and solve the Regression Equation

iii Applied Excel and SPSS version 17

iv Applied the Estimation Theory in Statistic

v Draw the plots

APPLIED STATISTIC AND ESTIMATION THEORY FOR ORGANIZATION

Execercise 2.2 The below information are data on the age of the patients visit the hospital A on

08/20/2008

Request :

a Stem & Leaf display representing

b Construct table of frequency distribution and cumulative percentage distribution

c Draw the frequency plot

d Comments on the age distribution of patients above

Solve

a Stem & Leaf display

Frequency Stem & Leaf

6.0 4 5 5 7 7 8 9

6.0 6 0 1 1 2 4 4

Width of Stem : 10.00

Each Leaf includes : 1 case(s).

b Table of frequency and cumulative frequency

Table 1 Descriptive frequency, percentage table

Age-grade Frequency Percentage (%) Cumulative

frequency

Cumulative Percentage (%)

c Histogram, and other frequency plots

d Comments on the age distribution of patients

From the above frequency graph (Frequency Histogram), we easily see the majority of patients visit the hospital A on 20/8/2008 are greater than 45 years of age and under 65 years old The amount of patients under 40 years old and is at least 65 years of patient accounting for a small amount Particularly of patients from 45 to 50 years old and the patients age 60 to 65 increased sharply higher It shows the hospital A on health care for middle-aged or older and retired people or those who were too old working age.Basing oneself on above frequency histogram, we can imagine more value-added services for Hospital A such as life insurance for elderly people or drugs on specific diseases of the elderly such as heart tonic, hypertension, diabetes doses drugs to increase market power or other drugs increases the digestibility of etc

Exercise 5.16 The consumer rate of a local product at district A is 60% After the marketing

campaign believed that the rate has increased To test this idea, we randomly interviewed 400 people and has 250 consumers found that product category With the 0.05 significant make meaningful conclusions about the comments above

Solve

The rate of customer consumption of products before advertising campaign is: p0 = 60% = 0.6

The rate of customer consumption of products after the advertising campaign: p

Set theory: H0 : p = p0 = 0.6

H1 : p ˃ p0

After implementation of advertising campaigns, the amount consumers are: p* = 250/400 = 0.625 = 62.5%

From above equation :

In other hand :

Comments : Because that we accept the theory H0: p = p0 = 0.6, it means after the advertising campaign that the percentage of customers used the product is less than or equal before advertising campaign Thus, the advertising campaign is a failure in district A because after doing the advertisng campaign that the rate of customer consumption would not rise as expected and tends

to decrease (significant at 5%)

Exercise 8.3 The following data is the number of readers of a local newspaper (thousand person):

Made a Least-Squares Trend Function and forecasts the total readers in 2008 and 2009 with 95% confident interval

Solve

Table 2 Readers of the newspaper related to time.

2004 9 144 1296 81 11664 729 104976 6561 944784

I have graphs show audience of the newspaper in 12 years from 1996 to 2007 as follows:

From table 2 above, we calculate the means value of t and y as follows:

As the graph represented by the function y t above, we easily see t and y is a linear relationship Applied Linear-Trend model for with variables y and t, we get :

From above equation, we get :

(với n=12)

From equation above, we can rewrite the regression Linear-trend model as below :

Comment 1 : annual average of the local newspaper has a constant readership of 34,818 people and

tends to increase a fort of the year which is 12,566 people online Thus, each year the local newspaper have got over 12,566 more readers and a pretty big audience

From regression equation above, we can forecasts the readers in year 2008 and year 2009 as :

Comment 2 : I predicted that the newspaper will have 198,182 readers in 2008 and 210,748

readers in 2009

Applied Excel 2007 for solving regression Linear-trend equation (set Data  Data Analysis 

Regression  chọn Confidence Level = 95% to identify the confident interval of 95%)

As the Excel data presented above, by 2007 the linear regression equation is the audience of about 185.615 people, nearly 9.500 lower than the actual person Because this is a local newspaper within increasing readership about of 12.566 every year, so the error of the linear regression equation is too large for practica It does not satisfy the necessary elements and integrity of data As calculated in

2007, then perhaps the local newspaper can be a severe loss not fully meet the needs readers and customers will turn to the competitors of that paper to buy other newspapers Thus, local newspaper can lose audience and gradually narrow the market until the dissolution or closure

Applied the ability to graph illustrating of the SPSS 17 that is one form of graphs showing the distribution of medical standards y by t:

From the graph above, we easily see that the Quadratic-Trend model which standard distribution approaches to y values From that view points, I concludes that distribution of is a Quadratic-Trend model

We have got equations (n=12) :

From above equation as well as solution of SPSS 17, we can write the Quadratic-Trend equation as:

Applied above equation to forecast the readers in three years 2007,2008 and 2009:

Applied SPSS 17 we can get solotion as :

Comments : easily see the trends on the quadratic distribution function that we obtain more

accurate data on the audience in the local newspaper As the equation shows normal distribution, the newspaper audience has a 48,636 average each year and tended to increase more linearly 6,644 audiences and concurrently around of 456 extra readers In 2008, the number of newspaper readers can be achieved 231,028 readers and it will be 212,072 people in 2009

Conclusion of excercise 8.3 : The standard distribution is a Quadratic trend model as

Instead of this , each year the local newspaper has a readership of

an average 48,636 people and increased the annual premium 6644 readers within regular extra 456 people online

TEXTBOOK:

1 Lecture notes and articles of BUAD555 Decision Science & Statistic for Managers(Griggs University)

2 Mark L.Berenson, David M Levine & Timothy C.Krehbiel, “Basic Business Statistic : Concepts and Applications” 11th edition, Prentice Hall, 2009, ISBN : 978-0-13-500936-9

3 Financial Bureau of Vietnam, “Manual of Accounting For Director and Accounting

Manager In Enterprise”, Lao Dong – Xa Hoi, 2009, ISBN: 89-35206-50099-8

INFORMATION RESOURCE:

4 South Branch Office of the Hanoi University of Technology

5 Chula bookstore of Thailand Kingdom

6 Phuong Nam Bookstore of Vietnam (PNC group)

OTHER IMPORTANCE ARTICLES:

7 Website of Vietnam Statistic Office: http://www.gso.gov.vn