Bdi Thu tu, mac dii dich den chua rd rang vay, mot trong nhirng dilm din dat qua trinh song cd mot sir ddng thuan kha Idn ciia cac hgp tac Ddng A hien nay la tang cudng hgp hgc gia ve [r]
Trang 1l i THI Al LAM* BUI THAI Q U Y E N "
1 Gioi thieu
Hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh te Ddng A tir
sau Chien tranh The gidi thii hai tdi nay
dugc coi la mot qua trinh phat triln tich cue,
theo do nen kinh te khu vuc da tao ra dugc
sir gan ket chat che tren nhieu ITnh vuc dac
biet la thuang mai va dau tu Nhirng thanh
qua lien ket dat dugc hien nay ciia mdi quan
he kinh te Ddng A cd sir ddng gdp rat Idn
ciia dieu chinh thi trudng va sang kien doanh
nghiep Cac mang san xuat khu vuc da tao ra
nhirng mdi lien ket chat che ve ca thuang
mai va dau tu ciing nhu chuyen dich nhan
lire Do la nhirng nen tang dac biet tot cho sir
hoi nhap sau rgng han ciia toan khu vuc
Dong A Tuy nhien, ke tir Khung hoang Tai
chinh Chau A 1997 thue tien cho thay mot
hudng phat trien va hdi nhap kinh te chu
dgng han theo hudng tang cudng manh me
sir phat triln cac khudn kho the che Ve ban
chat, khi ndi din hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh te
Ddng A, ngudi ta dac biet nhan manh giai
doan nay, nd la diem ed thi tao sir dot pha
bit ngd mang tinh chu dgng hoi nhap Day la
giai doan tich cue thiet lap cac ca che tu do
thuang mai va hop tac kinh te toan dien song
phuang va da phuang
Nhirng thay ddi trong dinh hudng hgp tac
nhu vay cd thi ggi ra cho cac thanh vien
trong nhdm cac nude Ddng A cd nhirng
phan ling thich hgp Bai viet nay se danh nd
lire dua ra cac dac diem ca ban ciia khudn
khd hoi nhap kinh tl Ddng A hien nay va
* Ti^n sT, Vi?n Kinh ti vd Chfnh tn Th6 gidi
" Th^c sT, Mekong Economic
dua ra mdt vai phan tich mang tinh ham y ddi vdi Viet Nam
Bai viet gom 2 phan chinh, ngoai gidi thieu va ket luan Sau phan gidi thieu, phSn hai, trinh bay mot vai nhin nhan vl khudn khd hgp tac va hoi nhap kinh te Ddng A hien nay Phan ba phan tich cac ham y ddi vdi Viet Nam tren co sd cac nhan thiic ciia tac gia ve khudn khd hgp tac va hdi nhap Ddng
A va cudi ciing la ket luan
2 Khuon kho ho'p tac va hoi nhap kinh
te Dong A Hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh te Ddng A hien nay dang dien ra tich cue han bao gid het Tuy con nhieu diem trong muc tieu va tien trien hgp tac va hoi nhap khu vuc chua the xac dinh dugc mot each rd rang, song co the dua ra mot sd dac diem ca ban ciia qua trinh hgp tac va lien ket kinh te hien nay cua Ddng A
Thu nhat, xet tir gdc do nen tang lien ket
va hdi nhap, qua trinh hdi nhap khu vuc cua Ddng A tir sau Chien tranh The gidi thir hai cho den nhirng nam 1990 chu yeu la mot qua trinh hoi nhap kien tao nen tang san xuat khu vuc, ma cu the la thiet lap va phat trien cac mang ludi san xuat khu vuc Day dugc coi la mot phat kien quan trgng cua khu vuc doanh nghiep Ddng A tren co sd tan dung nhirng sir khac biet ve tien luang, trinh do ky nang, va cac Igi the ve mdi trudng chinh sach va vi tri dia ly gan gui Phat kien quan trgng nay la ggi y quan trgng cho viec phat trien cac mang ludi san xuat toan cau hien dai ngay nay Tuy nhien, md thirc lien ket nay cung
NGHIEN C(]fa OdNG B^C 4 s6 5(99) 5-2009 15
Trang 2da nhan dugc kha nhiSu nhirng Idi chi trich 3 hay 16 nude la 10 nude ASEAN, 3 nude coi rang thieu ben viing bdi vi md thue lien Ddng Bac A va An do, Uc va Niu-Di- Lan ket nay chi tao ra nen tang cung ung hang Trong khi trat tu qudc te trong tuang lai hoa trong khu vire, song lai hudng dSn xudt chua dugc dinh hinh rd that khd xac dinh khau va tim kiem thi trudng ben ngoai cho dugc mot hinh anh rd rang cho Cong Ddng cac san pham cudi cimg nay la Bac My va nay Ben canh dd, mac dau cd nhirng ke Chau Au, khien nd cd do le thugc vao thi hoach dua ra ve Cdng Ddng Ddng A va trudng ben ngoai Idn Tinh thieu ben viing ddng tien chung, sir khac biet Idn giira cac cua mot md hinh phu thugc thi trudng ben nude Ddng A ve cac khia canh kinh te va ngoai cang trd nen rd hon trong bdi canh chinh tri khien Cong Ddng khd dat dugc hien nay khi Bac My va Chau Au roi vao trong tuang lai gan
khung hoang va giam manh tieu diing Bdi Thu tu, mac dii dich den chua rd rang
vay, mot trong nhirng dilm din dat qua trinh song cd mot sir ddng thuan kha Idn ciia cac hgp tac Ddng A hien nay la tang cudng hgp hgc gia ve each thue hay la con dudng hdi tac ngi bg khu vuc, tren ca sd tilp tuc phat nhap kinh te Ddng A, coi dd la mdt qua trinh trien nSn tang san xuat khu vuc song lai md rgng dan quy md tir tieu khu vuc sang nhan manh phat triln nln tang thi trudng cho toan khu vuc Ve phia tao dung lien ket tu cac san phlm cudi cimg ngay trong khu vuc do thuang mai, nhieu y kien cho rang cac
Thu hai, dinh hudng tang cudng hgp tac hiep djnh thuang mai tu do song phuang va
va hdi nhap khu vuc dugc thue hien theo tieu khu vuc dugc xem la cac nen tang quan nhieu kenh khac nhau, tuy nhien hai hinh trgng bude tdi khu vuc thuang mai tu do d thue dac biet ndi trgi dugc hudng tdi hien Ddng A, theo dd FTA toan khu vuc se la sir nay va dugc du bao la cd nhiing tac ddng tdng hgp va phat trien tiep theo cac dang ke hon ca la cac hiep djnh thuang mai FTA/EPA song phuang va tilu khu vuc
tu do va cac thi chi kinh tl va tai chinh da Tuang tu, Cdng Ddng Kinh te Ddng A nhu phuang khu vuc Mdt mat, chinh sach mdt cap do hdi nhap cao hon cua khu vuc thuang mai cua Ddng A hien nay chuyen thuang mai tu do se dat dugc thdng qua sir sang cac each tilp can hudng tdi khu vuc va tang cudng hdi nhap tirng phan ciia cac tieu nhSn manh cac hiep djnh thuang mai tu do khu vuc Quan dilm chu chdt dang sau sang
do chu nghTa da phuang trong khudn khd kien Cong Ddng Kinh te Ddng A coi sir tien WTO va chu nghTa khu vuc md dua tren trien trong lien ket kinh te cudi ciing se dan APEC gap trd ngai Mat khac, Ddng A dang den mdt Cdng Ddng kinh te Ddng A Mot tich cue thiic dSy sir phat triln va phdi thai khi FTA khu vuc dugc hinh thanh, bao gom cua mot sd thi chi kinh tl quan trgng nhu su thiet lap thuang mai, dau tu va the che ASEAN, APEC, GMS, ASEAN +3, ASEAN cho cac hinh thirc hgp tac khiu vuc khac, thi + 6, APEC, ASEM va mot sd the che hgp tac nen tang ca ban ciia Cong Ddng Kinh te
tai chinh khu vuc daxv thilt Ddng A se dugc tao lap
Thu ha, cho din nay, dich den cudi ciing Thu nam, trong sd cac khudn khd hgp tac
cua qua trinh hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh te va hdi nhap khu vuc cd sir phan hoa rat Ddng A la chua rd rang Hien nay, cugc manh Nhieu cau phan tieu khu vuc cd su tranh luan van chua thoat khdi thanh phan dinh hinh, thanh phan va co che hgp tac va tham gia la 13 nude theo mo hinh ASEAN + hdi nhap kha rd rang nhu ASEAN, AFTA va
16 NGHIEN C(ifU DONG B^C fl, s6 5(99) 5-2009
Trang 3GMS, trong khi dd cung cd nhilu khudn khd
hgp tac va hdi nhap tieu khu vuc dang mang
cac dac trung kha mo hd, dac biet cac khudn
khd gan vdi cac nude Ddng Bac A, bao gdm
Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc Dac
diem cua nhdm cac nude Ddng Bac A nay la
quy md kinh te Idn, tiem lire qudc gia manh
va kha nang chi phdi len qua trinh hgp tac va
hoi nhap kinh te Ddng A cao Tuy nhien,
lich sir va hien tai trong quan he bang giao
ve kinh te, chinh tri va ngoai giao giira cac
nude trong khu vuc, cho thay tinh canh tranh
va nghi ky lan nhau van rat Idn, ddi khi lan
at va gay han cho quan he hgp tac Sang kien
ve khu vuc thuang mai tu do Ddng Bac A da
dugc dua ra, song nd van thieu nhirng nen
tang rd rang de tien tdi thue tien
Thu sau, hgp tac tai chinh dugc coi la mot
ITnh vuc uu tien dac biet va mdt sd the che
hgp tac tai chinh khu vuc da dugc hinh
thanh va chuin bi cho mdt sir hdi nhap tai
chinh tich cue Trong nhirng nam dau the ky
21, chinh phu cac nude Ddng A nd lire thiic
day hgp tac tai chinh d eSp do khu vuc vdi
muc dich giam bdt tinh d l tdn thuang cua
nin tai chinh khu vuc trudc khung hoang va
cai thien tinh hinh phan phdi von trong khu
vuc Cac nude da dua ra mot loat cac sang
kiln nham tang cudng kha nang dgc lap tai
chinh cua khu vuc, tir chia se thdng tin din
cac thoa thuan hoan ddi tai chinh va thj
trudng chung khoan khu vuc Sang kien
Chiang Mai (CMI) va Sang kiln v l Quy
chirng khoan chau A (ABFl) cho thdy mdi
lien he va thai do mdi cua Ddng A vdi viec
dilu hanh tai chinh toan chu trong the ky 21
Sang kiln Chiang Mai la su triln khai cac
hiep djnh cung cSp tai chinh khu vuc nham
hd trg thanh khoan cho cac nude thanh vien
bj tham hut can can thanh toan trong ngan
han, ddng thdi ngan chan khiing hoang tai
chinh tiln te cd thi xay ra Ciing vdi CMI,
sang kien ve Quy chirng khoan chau A va Thi trudng Trai phieu chau A (ABMI) dugc dua ra vdi muc dich dua lugng du trii ngoai hoi khong Id cua chau A von dang dugc giir tai My hoac chau Au quay trd lai khu vuc thdng qua viec dau tu vao chirng khoan Cho tdi nay, phan Idn tiet kiem cua chau A dugc chuyen vao cac thi trudng chirng khoan quoc
te d My hoac chau Au do thi trudng chung khoan chau A chua phat trien Ngudn lire ciia Dong A can dugc diing de tao ra sir phdn thinh cho khu vuc, hon la sir dung de bii dap cho muc tham hut tai khoan vang lai khdng Id cua My (dudi dang mua trai phieu kho bac My) Theo dd, chinh phu cac nude chau A phai day nhanh cac ke hoach xay dung thi trudng chung khoan chau A trd thanh ddi trgng vdi cac thi trudng chirng khoan phuang Tay Han nira, ABFI la nham bao ve khu vuc khdi nhirng tdn thuang tir ben ngoai bang each xay dung cac thi trudng v6n dia phuang phat trien nang ddng va da dang hon Cugc khiing hoang tai chinh chau
A cd thi se khdng gn> ra qua nhieu thiet hai nlu nhu cac thi trudng chirng khoan cua cac nude trong khu vuc da phat trien hon va vai tro trung gian tai chinh d nhirng nude chiu tac ddng cua cudc khung hoang khong qua tap trung vao cac ngan hang Quy chirng khoan chau A dugc quyet dinh thanh lap nam 2003, vdi sd vdn ban dau khoang 1 ty
USD.Trong giai doan dm, ABFI dau tu vao
rd cac chung khoan menh gia USD dugc cung clp bdi cac nha phat hanh qudc gia hoac do qudc gia bao trg ciia chau A Trong giai doan 2 cua ABFI, ABFI dau tu vao trai philu menh gia ddng ndi te do cac ddi tugng nha phat ndi tren dua ra tren cac thi trudng Ddng A - Thai Binh Duang (EMEPA) Cac thanh vien EMEAP da dau tu tdng cdng 2 ty USD cho ABFI 2, bao gdm 9 quy thanh
NGHIEN Cflfa OdNG BflC (I $6 5(99) 5-2009 17
Trang 4phan la Quy chi sd chirng khoan lien chau A
(PAIF) va 8 quy thi trudng don le
3 Ham y doi vol Viet Nam
Nhu da phan tich trong khudn khd hgp tac
va hdi nhap kinh tl Ddng A d tren, tuy thilu
hinh anh ciia mot dich den cudi ciing song
tien trinh hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh tl ciia
Ddng A da cd nhiing kenh hgp tac va dudng
di kha rd rang Hiep dinh thuang mai tu do
va cac the che kinh te va tai chinh nhieu ben
la cac kenh hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh te dugc
coi trgng Ddng thdi mot eon dudng tien tdi
muc hdi nhap kinh te cao nhat cua Dong A
-Cong Ddng kinh te Ddng A dugc kha nhieu
hgc gia va cac y kien luu y la sir hdi nhap va
phat trien tir tir theo nhieu tang nac, trudc het
nhan manh hon cap tieu khu vuc va thdng
qua sir hdi nhap tieu khu vuc tien tdi hdi
nhap toan khu vuc Cho den nay trong hgp
tac va hdi nhap kinh te Ddng A, trong khi
hinh anh hgp tac cua mot sd tieu khu vuc va
toan khu vuc edn chua rd rang vi du nhu
khudn khd hgp tac tieu khu vuc Ddng Bac A
hay thanh phan tham gia toan khu vuc chua
rd rang, thi lai cd nhieu khudn khd tieu khu
vuc dac biet rd rang va cd nhiing the che hgp
tac da dii manh de tien trien tren thue te, vi
du nhu ASEAN, GMS, AFTA, ACFTA va
cac the che hgp tac tai chinh
Trong tien trinh hdi nhap va hgp tac kinh
tl Ddng A nay, Viet Nam cd mot sd dac
dilm kha rieng biet Thu nhat, nhu da trinh
bay d dac diem dau tien ciia hdi nhap Ddng
A, nIn tang hdi nhap dugc dinh hinh tuang
ddi rd ciia Ddng A trong nhirng thap ky qua
la cac mang ludi san xuat hay la mot nen
tang cung ling san pham hang hoa Trong
khi dd, Viet Nam la mdt nude di sau, tham
gia md cua va hdi nhap muon han da khdng
sdm kip dat chan vao cac mang san xuat dd
mdt each ben vHng Cho tdi nay, sir hdi nhap
ciia Viet Nam vao cac mang ludi san xuat
khu vuc la khdng dang ke Su hdi nhap ciia Viet Nam vdi the gidi tir thdi ky md cua tdi nay chii yeu thien ve hdi nhap tim kiem thi trudng, tiic san xuat trong nude va xuat khau
ra nude ngoai, chu yeu sang cac thi trudng
Au My Vi du, tang cudng nudi trdng va che bien thiiy san, san xuat ca phe, hd tieu, khai thae dau thd, v v de ban ra thi trudng nude ngoai Tat nhien khdng the ndi rang, nen tang san xuat nay la hoan toan do Viet Nam
tu than Thue ra trong thdi gian qua, sir tham gia cua FDI vao Viet Nam ciing ddng gdp dang ke vao xuat khau tuy nhien cac dong FDI nay chi gan vdi mot cdng doan rat so khai ddi cong nghe va ky nang don gian va tao ra gia tri gia tang thap trong chudi gia tri toan cau ciia san pham hoac tham chi tach biet khdng gan vdi mdt mang ludi san xuat toan cau nao Dac trung khac biet nay ciia Viet Nam cd mdt ham y dang ke doi vdi dat nude Mot Viet Nam dat chan tru vao nen tang san xuat khu vuc chua virng lai tich cue tham gia hdi nhap khu vuc vao thdi ky ma hgp tac va hdi nhap khu vuc dat tieu diem phat trien nen tang thj trudng ngay trong khu vuc cho cac san pham cudi ciing dugc san xuat bdi khu vuc Trong khi dd, cd thi nhd lai Igi the ciia cac mang san xuat qudc te la cat giam chi phi, tang cudng siic doi mdi cho qua trinh san xuat va quan ly Dieu nay cd nghTa rang, san pham dugc tao ra bdi cac mang ludi san xuat nhin chung cd siic canh tranh rat cao San pham dugc tao ra bdi cac cdng ty don le, nam ngoai mang ludi san xuat khd cd the canh tranh thi trudng vdi cac san pham dugc san xuat trong cac mang ludi Nhu vay, ham y ddi vdi Viet Nam la da
rd, nguy co khdng nang cao dugc nang lire san xuat, trong khi lai md cua thj trudng dang Idn dan len cho san pham nude ngoai, bao gdm ca san pham khu vuc
Trang 5Tat nhien, trong thdi dai ngay nay ddng
cua, tir chdi tham gia hgp tac va hdi nhap
khu vuc la khdng thi, song Viet Nam phai
cd nhirng nghien cim cSn than d l lira chgn
each thirc hdi nhap va hgp tac lam sao dk tdc
do tang cudng nang lire san xuk trong nude,
cu the hon la nang cao nang lire tham gia cac
mang ludi san xuat qudc te (toan ckx hoac
khu vuc) dien ra nhanh hon tdc do md cira
thi trudng ndi dja
Thu hai, mot dac trung kha rd ciia Viet
Nam trong qua trinh hgp tac va hdi nhap
Ddng A hien nay la nude ta cd mdt Igi thi
tuang ddi khi chii yeu gan vdi cac khuon
kho hgp tac va hdi nhap tieu khu vuc da
dugc dinh hinh kha rd nhu ASEAN, AFTA,
ACFTA, GMS va cac the che hgp tac tai
chinh trong bdi canh nhieu khudn khd hgp
tac tieu khu vuc d Ddng A van mii md chua
rd djnh hinh Theo nghTa nay tdi cho rang,
mac dii chua xac dinh dugc dich den cudi
ciing ciia hdi nhap kinh te toan khu vuc
Ddng A trong tuong lai dai han, song dich
den trong ngan han va trung han cua Viet
Nam la kha rd rang Viec dat nd lire uu tien
cho cac qua trinh hgp tac tai chinh khu vuc
thi rd rang la khdng thi bd qua ddi vdi bat cii
nude nao trong khu vuc trong bdi canh tu do
hoa tai chinh da khiln ITnh vuc tai chinh
vugt qua kha nang kiem soat cua bat ky mdt
qudc gia dan le nao Tuy nhien, ben canh
cac nd lire hgp tac tai chinh khu vuc, Viet
Nam can gan giai doan dau ciia con dudng
hdi nhap khu vuc vdi viec tim kiim, khai
thae va khang dinh vi thi dk nude, trudc hit
tren cac diln dan hdi nhap tieu khu vuc Van
dl la d l hdi nhap, Viet Nam nen lira chgn uu
tien chinh sach thi nao trong viec tham gia
vao cac thi chi tilu khu vuc nay
Hien nay, Viet Nam dang cd mdt chinh
sach hgi nhap qudc t l tich c\rc, song dudng
nhu dd la mgt su tich cue diu, nd lire tham
gia mgi tran tuyen hdj nhap dugc md ra bdi cac ca che da phuang va khu vuc Vdi mot nude Viet Nam, mdi cai each va dat dugc thdi ky tang trudng vira phai va do vay mgi ngudn lire edn han hep, lieu c6 dii tai lire va nhan lire de hdi nhap tich cue ddng deu tren tat ca cac khudn khd hdi nhap ma the gidi dua ra khdng Trong nhiing nam vira qua, dudng nhu Viet Nam dang theo dudi mdt chien luge hdi nhap rgng va thieu deu ngudn lire cho mdi khudn khd hdi nhap va dieu nay dang cho thay nhirng ket qua can luu y Lay hgp tac tieu viing song Me kdng (GMS) lam
vi du Nhin so qua be ngoai, cd ve Viet Nam
cd nhiing Igi the trong qua trinh hgp tac va hgi nhap GMS, song khi di vao nhin sau han lai cho thay Viet Nam dang thien ve ben thua hon la ben thang trong qua trinh hgp tac
va hdi nhap nay Tham hut thuang mai cua Viet Nam vdi cac nude nay ngay cang tang manh, gdp phan khdng nhd vao sir tham hut thuang mai tdng the Idn hien nay cua dat nude, von dang dugc coi la mdt moi de doa dang ke cho sir dn dinh phat trien kinh te cua Viet Nam Ve quan he dau tu, Viet Nam thien ve hudng tiep nhan cac du an ciia khu vuc de khai thae thi trudng ngi dia va khai thae quang mang lai hieu qua kinh te cao trong khi dd lai tap trung vao cac du an dau
tu ra ngoai can nhieu vdn va cdng nghe ma hieu qua kinh te khdng dac biet cao (xem them 1)
Rd rang d day, trong mdi quan he hgp tac thuang mai va dau tu giiia Viet Nam va cac nude trong khdi GMS tdn tai mdt cai gi dd meo md, khien cho Viet Nam rai vao the bat Igi ve ban chat Trong khi do, neu xet ve tilm nang va be ngoai, thi le ra Viet Nam phai cd Igi the Vi tri dja ly Viet Nam la mot Igi thi dang ke trong hgp tac khu vuc Viet Nam gan nhu nam trung tam cua khu vuc GMS, cd the trd thanh mgt cau ndi cho giao
NGHIEN CCJfU OdNG B^C fl s6 5(99) 5-2009 19
Trang 6thdng thuan tien va re bang dudng bd giira
Cam-pu-chia, Thai Lan va Trung Qudc Xet
ve ngudn lire con ngudi, neu nhin mgt each
tuong ddi, Viet Nam ciing cd nhirng sir vugt
trgi nhat dinh Vay tai sao ket qua hgp tac lai
khdng nhu mong dgi?
Ngoai nhiing ly do ma mdt sd tac gia nhu
Hoang Viet Khang thudng neu ra gan vdi
cac han che cho sir hgp tac tich cue cua
GMS nhu sir phdi hgp thue hien cac du an
kem, ngudn nhan lire yeu, co sd ha tang
thieu, theo tdi mgt nguyen nhan can dugc
luu y la dinh hudng chinh sach hoac la dgng
ca chinh sach cua Viet Nam trong quan he
hgp tac nay chua thoa dang de cd the lai
doanh nghiep va cac khu vuc kinh te trong
nude tham gia hgp tac theo hudng cd Igi cho
dat nude Quay lai van de dau tu d GMS,
thirc ra cd kha nhieu doanh nghiep Viet Nam
da vuan dau tu sang Lao, tiep can vdi cac
ITnh vuc khai khoang va rirng cd Igi nhuan
cao song hg hau het la cac du an tu nhan vdi
quy md rat nhd, trung binh 70 trieu USD
mdt du an Trong khi dd hd trg vdn lai chii
yeu danh cho cac cdng ty nha nude, ed the
cd quy md Idn hon, song lai khdng dii linh
hoat ve ca chien luge dau tu lan ca che de
tham gia vao cac ITnh vuc cd Igi nhuan cao
Xet cue dien the gidi hien nay va tan dung
Igi the khoang each dia ly gan giii, Viet Nam
nen cd nhirng bude di tich cue uu tien cho
hgi nhap sau khu vuc Ddng A, ma trudc het
coi trgng hdi nhap cac tieu khu vuc Tham
chi trong hgp tac va hdi nhap tieu khu vuc,
Viet Nam nen cd nhiing lira chgn uu tien tap
trung hon vao nhirng tieu khu vuc ma Viet
Nam ed the cd Igi the phat trien va chiem
ITnh thj trudng va tang cudng md rgng nang
lire san xuat hien cd
D I cd nhirng dinh hudng chinh sach diing,
tap trung vao cac tieu khu vuc dang mong
mudn, cd the can cd nhirng nghien cxiu phan
tich va so sanh sau han cai dugc va cai chua dugc hien nay ciia Viet Nam trong hdi nhap
va hgp tac cac khudn khd tieu khu vuc hien
cd Tuy nhien, trudc mat mdt dinh hudng tiln tdi tham nhap sau han niia thi trudng cac nude trong tieu khu vuc GMS, dac biet cac nude Ddng Duong can dugc khuyen cao tich cue han
D I cac dinh hudng uu tien tap trung vao cac tieu khu vuc ed lira chgn thanh cdng can
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Khung 1: Viet Nam vdi khudn khd GMS Hgp tac trong khudn khd GMS dugc tang cudng manh me ke tir dau nhirng nam 1990 Khdi dau vdi Chuang trinh GMS nam 1992 ciia ADB den nay sau hon 15 nam thue hien, hgp tac tieu viing song Me Kdng da dat dugc nhirng thanh tiru dang ke Vdi cac dac trung la dua tren nguyen tac thoa thuan va tu nguyen, hgp tac GMS la mdt co che rat md
va hoan toan do sang kien, chii dich va Igi ich ciia cac nude rieng le ma khdng can cd
su ap dat vdi bat ky mdt ben nao khdng mudn tham gia hgp tac Tuy nhien, ca sd tu nguyen va thoa thuan nay ket hgp vdi nhirng yeu kem hien hiru trong hau het cac nude thanh vien nhu co sd ha tang phat triln kem, siic canh tranh thap, ngudn lire tai chinh thieu thdn, nang lire the che va nhan lire han che, V V da khien cho tien triln ciia qua trinh hgp tac GMS trong hon mgt thap ky qua dudng nhu chua giup dang kl cho viec khai thae cac Igi the ciia tieu khu vuc ciing nhu chua giup cac nude khai thae tilm nang cho minh tot han
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tiep nhan hon 3,6 trieu khach du lich tir
Trung Qudc Ngoai ra, nhilu cdng ty Viet
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thdi ky 2001-2005 Theo dd, nhap khlu cua Viet Nam tir cac nude trong tilu viing la Lao, Campuchia, Myanma, Trung Qudc \a Thai Lan da tang tir 2,4 ty do la nam 2001 len khoang 8,3 ty dd la nam 2005 va xudt khau tang tuang ling la 1,9 ty dd la len 4,3 tyddW"
Tuy dugc hudng Igi kha nhilu tir cac du
an phat triln ca sd ha tSng trong khuon khd GMS, song neu xet tir gdc do thuang mai thi
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iu 267,3
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Trang 8Xet ve gdc do dau tu, mdi quan he giira Nhin nhan tien trinh hgp tac ciia Viet Viet Nam va cac nude lang gieng trong tieu Nam va cac nude trong GMS cd the thay, khu vuc dugc tang cudng dang kl Sd du an mac dii tiem nang phat trien rat Idn, su gan dau tu ciia Trung Qudc dang tang len kha giii ve dja ly, su so khai ciia thi trudng nhieu nhanh, hien nay dat eon sd 357 du an vdi nude trong khu vuc, sir cai thien dang ke ve
739 trieu dd la My Tuy nhien, nhin qua cd ca sd ha tang nhd cac nd luc ben ngoai, chii the thay, cac du an dau tu chii yeu quy md yeu cac nha tai trg nhu ADB va Nhat Ban, nhd, trung binh hon 2 trieu do la, tap trung kit qua ciia sir hgp tac la rat han che Vdi vj vao nhiing ITnh vuc " khdng qua dang mong the hien nay, cd ve nhu Viet Nam thien ve vi dgi" xet ve mat dai han hoac su phat trien tri ciia ngudi thua hon la ngudi thang trong ben viing nhu che tao xe may hoac khai thae mang ludi hgp tac nay Tham hut thuang tai nguyen Hay xem cac nha dau tu Trung mai ngay cang tang manh, gdp phan khdng Qudc ndi gi? Hg ndi: "Trong khi nhirng nhd vao sir tham hut thuang mai tdng the Idn ngudi mdi giau d Trung Qudc nham den xe hien nay ciia dat nude, vdn dang dugc coi la hoi thi d Viet Nam, xe may van la "vua" va mdt mdi de doa dang ke cho sir dn dinh phat day la tin tot cho nhiing nha san xuat nhu trien kinh te ciia Viet Nam va bien dat nude Chongqing Dongli (nha san xuat xe may) thanh con ng tren trudng qudc te Ve quan Sir can bang trong dau tu-muc dich chinh he dau tu, Viet Nam thien ve hudng tiep ciia nhirng nha dau tu Trung Qudc vao Viet nhan cac du an cua khu vuc de khai thae thi Nam ciing nhu cac noi khac tren the gidi: trudng ndi dja va khai thae quang mang.lai Tai nguyen thien nhien Nam 2005, miic dau hieu qua kinh te cao trong khi dd lai tap
tu vao cac du an khai thae than va quang trung vao cac du an dau tu ra ngoai can bauxite chiem 44% tdng vdn dau tu cua nhieu vdn va cdng nghe ma hieu qua kinh te Trung Qudc vao Viet Nam, tang 3% so vdi khdng dac biet cao.*^^
nam trudc dd" (Viet Bao) 4 Ket luan
Dong thdi, dau tu ciia Viet Nam vao Lao Hgp tac va hdi nhap kinh tl d Ddng A
va cam-pu-chia ciing dang cd nhirng tien dang diln ra manh me theo mgt bude ngoat trien tot dep Den cudi 2006, Viet Nam cd 11 kha viing chae kl tir sau Khung hoang tai
du an d Cam-pu-chia vdi sd vdn la 4 trieu do chinh Chau A 1997, nhdn manh viec hgp tac
la va 52 du an tai Lao vdi sd vdn la 368,7 kinh te ehii ddng tien tdi hdi nhap sau trong trieu do la Tuy nhien, cac du an ciia Viet toan khu vuc Khudn khd hgp tac va hgi Nam tai Lao dang chii yeu tap trung vao cac nhap kinh te Ddng A, tuy thilu hinh anh ciia ITnh vuc nhu thuy dien ddi hdi vdn Idn, cdng mdt dich den cudi ciing song tiln trinh hgp nghe va ky nang phiie tap song Igi nhuan va tac va hdi nhap kinh tl ciia Ddng A da cd hieu qua dau tu nhieu khi lai khdng phai la nhirng kenh hgp tac va dudng di kha rd rang, mgt Igi the so vdi cac nganh khac Neu nhu nIn tang hdi nhap da dat dugc cua
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*^' Tong hgp v^ phan tich cua tdc gia d\ra tren cdc l^p lu^n
va so lieu thong ke ve hgp tdc GMS
22 NGHIEN CdTU OdNG B^C fl SO 5(99) 5-2009
Trang 9khu vuc thien nhilu han v l tao dung mdt
nen tang cung irng va san xuk nhd cac mang
ludi san xuat khu vuc, hudng hdi nhap khu
vuc trong giai doan mdi dudng nhu da md
rgng them tang cudng vi thi cua khu vuc la
diem den thi trudng cua san phim san xuit
trong khu vuc nham bao dam tinh ben virng
tot hon cho md hinh hgp tac khu vuc Hiep
djnh thuang mai tu do va cac the che kinh te
va tai chinh nhieu ben la cac kenh hgp tac va
hgi nhap kinh te dugc coi trgng Ddng thdi
mgt con dudng tien tdi miie hdi nhap kinh te
cao nhat cua Ddng A - Cdng Ddng kinh te
Dong A dugc kha nhieu hgc gia va cac y
kien luu y la sir hdi nhap va phat trien tir tir
theo nhieu tang nac, trudc het nhan manh
han cap tieu khu vuc va thdng qua sir hgi
nhap tieu khu vuc tien tdi hgi nhap toan khu
vuc Cho den nay trong hgp tac va hdi nhap
kinh t l Ddng A, trong khi hinh anh hgp tac
cua mdt sd tieu khu vuc va toan khu vuc cdn
chua rd rang vi du nhu khudn khd hgp tac
tilu khu vuc Ddng Bac A hay thanh phan
tham gia toan khu vuc chua rd rang, thi lai
ed nhilu khudn khd tilu khu vuc dac biet rd
rang va cd nhiing thi che hgp tac da du
manh dl tiln triln tren thue tl, vi du nhu
ASEAN, GMS, AFTA, ACFTA va cac thi
che hgp tac tai chinh
Viet Nam tham gia vao hgp tac khu vuc
dang cd nhiing uu thi va yeu the nhat dinh
Song dudng nhu cho din nay, cac uu the va
Igi thi chua dugc khai thae triet dk, trong khi
dd ylu thi lai cd thi tao ra nhirng sir de doa
dang kl cho sir phat triln hon nira cua dk
nude, dac biet nguy co bi chilm ITnh thj
trudng ndi dja trong khi khdng phat trien
dugc nang lire san xuk kit ndi mang vdi cac
nude khac
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1 Lum Th.& Nanto D (2006), China's trade
with the United States and The World CRS
Report for Congress, the Library of Congress
2 Gia tdng dau tu Trung Quoc tgi Viet Nam,
http://vietbao.vn/0-to-xe-may/Gia-tang-dau-tu-Trung-Quoc-tai-Viet-Nam/61002753/376/
3 Kawai Mashairo & Ganeshan Wignarja
(2007), ASEAN + 3 or ASEAN + 6, which way
forward, ADBI discussion paper 77
4 Shimizu Kazushi (2005), Issues and Tasks
in Intra-ASEAN Economic Cooperation after the Asian Economic Crisis, Journal of political
economy, Vol.71, No.2/3 tr 219-236
5 Ma Hong (2005), On Economic
Cooperation in East Asia
6 Lu Jianren (2005) Process of East Asian
Economic Cooperation and Its Impacts on the Regional Economic Growth
7 Lum Th.& Nanto D (2006), China's trade
w'lh the United States and The World, CRS
Report for Congress, the Library of Congress
Iittp:"www,fas.org sgp CISiou'R1.3 1403.pdf
8 Masahiro Kawai (2004), Regional
Economic integration and cooperation in East Asia,
http://\\\\w.oecd.org/dataoecd/43/7/3362875 6.pdf
9 Mona haddad (2007), Trade integration in
east asia: The role of china and production network,h.XX\):llw\\v.- wds.worldbank.org/servlet
/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/03/06/000 016406_20070306101249/Rendered/PDF/wps4 160.pdf
NGHIEN CCJfU OdNG B^C fl sd 5(99) 5-2009 23