tiểu luận kinh tế lượng econometrics report

Object and scale of the study The aim of the model is to study about the demand for Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of FTU students in 09/2019 by analyzing the factors affecting the demand forLem

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I ABSTRACT 4

II INTRODUCTION 5

III LITERATURE REVIEW ……… 6

IV THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 7

V DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF DATA 8

1 Research model 8

1.1 Research model…… 8

1.2 Meaning of the parameters…… 9

1.3 Sign expectation of the parameters……….10

2 Statistics description 10

2.1 Graph 10

2.2 Summary statistics ………… 11

3 Correlation matrix 12

VI ECONOMETRICS MODEL .12

1 Set up a general model…………

12 2 Interpret the model……… 14

VII ROBUSTNESS CHECK 15

1 Multicollinearity 15

2 Normality 16

3 Heteroscedasticity 18

VIII FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION 20

1 General summary 20

2 Findings and discussion 21

IX CONCLUSION 24

X.REFERENCES 2 5

I – ABSTRACT

1 Object and scale of the study

The aim of the model is to study about the demand for Lemongrass-Kumquat tea

of FTU students in 09/2019 by analyzing the factors affecting the demand forLemongrass-Kumquat tea of them From the perspectives as second-year students and thedata collected, we hope to find the way to develop the business of Lemongrass-Kumquattea stalls in the next few months

The data of observations was collected from 53 students of FTU aboutLemongrass-Kumquat tea – a recent new common favorite kind of drink among students

in big cities of Vietnam Anyway, because of the limited time, we only collected 53observations, which seems to be not enough to guarantee the exactness of the result ofour assignment We will be very appreciated if there are any further researches in thefuture to help our assignment more completed

2 Study method

In the assignment, we used both qualitative method and quantitative method tostudy the influences of factors affecting the demand for Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of FTUstudents

- Qualitative method: through the investigations about factor affecting the demand

of buyers and theoretical background to build research model, then design thequestionnaire

- Quantitative method: study the factors impacting the demand for Kumquat tea The method is shown through the processing and analyzing the data

Lemongrass-II – INTRODUCTION

In recent decades, Vietnam have spurred rapid economic growth anddevelopment, GDP has risen, people's lives have improved both physically and mentally.People in the past had thought that living was just to feed and clothe themselves properly.Nowadays, there is a significant change, everyone is looking for a higher enjoyment,better lifestyle and new standard of living Entertainment, food and beverage never beforebecome such a huge demand Especially in big city like Hanoi, students withcharacteristics of large number and great demand, spread across the market segments, hasautomatically become an important part Foreign Trade University students is not anexception Through the research process, our group realized that: besides other types ofentertainment such as sports, arts, etc., going to tea shop after stressful classes is quite alot of students' choice

Lemongrass-Kumquat tea is booming into a trend in a couple of months lately.Walking around the university, we can see many pubs selling this drink Indeed, to find afresh, diverse flavor, easy to drink, easy to find, perhaps in addition to Lemongrass-Kumquat tea, there is no more suitable drink There is an immense number of factors thataffect the purchasing power of customer such as The environment protection awareness

of buyer, Safety evaluation, Taste evaluation, Budget of living, services, etc Our groupwants to find a topic that apply what we have learned and all members are dedicated tobeing able to successfully complete the assigned tasks, at the same time meet the urgentneeds of society, and must also be very close to be able to apply immediately reality That

is the reason why our team decided to select the topic " Factors affecting buying power of

Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of FTU students" With a sample size that is not too large, easy

to implement to achieve the most accurate results, high applicability, practical issues

III – LITERATURE REVIEW

In recent years, especially in 2019, the trend of young people looking for theirfavorite drinks has started to become more subtle The favorite drinks of young peopleoften bring many benefits for health, physique and physicality Seeing the increasingdemand for the Lemongrass-Kumquat tea among students, we found this issue havingmany interesting factors to study Since there are few assignments researched about thedemand for the Lemongrass- Kumquat tea, especially researching the needs of this drink

of Foreign Trade University students Therefore, we studied this topic through the wayreading these books, materials related customer psychology We recognized some factorsaffecting demand, for instance: price, quality, service A decision-making style is defined

as a "mental orientation characterizing a consumer's approach to making choices."Sproles and Kendall (1986) developed a consumer style inventory (CSI) consisting ofeight factors, such as price-sensitivity, quality-consciousness, brand-consciousness,novelty-seeking, fashion-consciousness and habit Based on these factors, the authorsdeveloped a typology of some distinct decision-making styles:

Price-conscious shoppers carefully shop around seeking lower prices, sales ordiscounts and are motivated by obtaining the best value for money

a consumer's search for the very best quality in products; quality conscious

consumers tend to shop systematically making more comparisons and shoppingaround to compare quality and value.

buy expensive, well-known brands or designer labels Those who score high onbrand-consciousness tend to believe that the higher prices are an indicator ofquality and exhibit a preference for department stores or top-tier retail outlets

routine purchase pattern on each purchase occasion; consumers have favoritebrands or stores and have formed habits in choosing, the purchase decision doesnot involve much evaluation or shopping around

However, when we applied these factors into real life, specially the demand ofForeign Trade University students for Lemongrass-Kumquat tea, our research subject is

in a narrow range, we have known that these factors such as gender, age (19-20-21-22years old) and price (10,000VND/ cup) do not affect strongly on customer demand Afterdiscussing and examining with together, we determined to choose taste, service,enjoyment factors into our research

IV – THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

Water accounts for 65-70% of body weight, is the environment in the metabolismbetween inside and outside the cell We can fast for a long time, but we cannot abstainfrom drinking When losing 20-25% of water in the body, we will feel uncomfortable,born hallucinations, the situation can not last long In addition, when the body isdehydrated, it will lead to the loss of mineral salts and thereby lead to the imbalance ofsalt in the body So in many cases, people need to add about 1% of table salt to drinkingwater or mineral water to ensure the body stabilizes the amount of salt in the body Andsince then to improve and enhance the quality of drinking water, people have added manyother ingredients such as sugar, salt, flavor enhancers and preservatives In some cases,people add a small amount of stimulants (caffeine), sedatives, diuretics, healthsupplements (like in herbal soft drinks), digestive aids, etc These components have

changed according to customs and practices of each region and each locality Drinkingwater has been improved, more and more developed, from which the beveragemanufacturing industry was born.

There may be many ways to classify soft drinks, but generally soft drinks areclassified into two categories, alcoholic beverage and the second is non-alcoholicbeverage In the group of non-alcoholic beverages, we can mention familiar drinks such

as soft drinks (including two types, carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, juice,they are almost essential items and cannot be absent in daily life

The beverage market in Vietnam is currently developing at an extremely fast pace.The number of soft drinks is increasingly diversified, rich with products such as Coca-cola, Pepsi, which are produced from domestic as well as abroad Demand for softdrinks is met with better beverage companies and better care But looking at the reality ofVietnam, the beverage industry is extremely diverse and plentiful, such as the Streetbeverage market It is extremely popular in Vietnam, and extremely convenient foreveryone And over time, street refreshments have become familiar with Vietnamesepeople, especially the young students According to our observations at the streetbeverage cabaret, students often gather here a lot after school They talk to each other,and enjoy drinks such as “Tra da”, a popular drink However, drinking “Tra da” is forced

to sit in one place Therefore, another needs are gradually formed and developed, theywant convenient drinks such as street refreshments but can be taken away Therefore, anumber of fruit teas such as lemon tea, kumquat tea, peach tea, and especially lemongrasskumquat tea have been added to the student's list of convenient and favorite drinks Andespecially FTU students have the need to use lemongrass kumquat tea more and morebecause it not only fits the student's budget but also suits their interests

Realizing that this is a good, interesting topic, we have decided to research andexplore this topic

V – DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF DATA

1 About the research model

1.1 Research model

The demand for the Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of FTU student 09/2019 isestimated through the amount of money (million vnd) they spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat tea The demand is influenced by these below factors:

 EviProAware: The environment protection awareness of buyer ( The Kumquat tea is sold by plastic cups, which increases the amount of plastics toenvironment It causes the environment pollution problem to be more serious ).Code 1 if you are highly aware of it and try protect environment; Code 2 if you areaware of it but do nothing; Code 3 if you are not aware of it

Lemongrass- SafetyEva: Safety evaluation about Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of buyer Code 1Very bad; Code 2 Bad; Code 3 Neutral; Code 4 Good; Code 5 Very Good

 TasteOfLKT: Taste evaluation about Lemongrass-Kumquat tea of buyer Code 1Very bad; Code 2 Bad; Code 3 Neutral; Code 4 Good; Code 5 Very Good

 BugdetLiving: Budget of living (million vnd)

 ServiceEva: Evaluation about service at stall Code 1 Very bad; Code 2 Bad; Code

3 Neutral; Code 4 Good; Code 5 Very Good

PRF: AAM = β 0 + β 1 EviProAware + β 2 SafetyEva + β 3 TasteOfLKT + β 4

- β4: The change in “The average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat tea” according to “Budget of living per month” of buyer

- β5: The change in “The average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat tea” according to “Evaluation about service at stall” of buyer

- ui: error term

1 3 Sign expectation of the parameters

(*) AAM = The average amount of money spent on Lemon-Kumquat tea

Depending on the theoretical background and our real-life experience, we expect:

- The “Evironment protection awareness” should have the positive relationship with

“AAM”

OR: β 1 should be negative (+)

- The “Safety evaluation about Lemon-Kumquat tea” should have the positiverelationship wih “AAM"

OR: β 2 should be positive (+)

- The “Taste evaluation about Lemongrass-Kumquat tea” should have the positive

relationship with “AAM”

OR: β 3 should be postive (+)

- The “Budget of living per month” should have the positive relationship with “AAM”

OR: β 4 should be positive (+)

- The “Service evaluation at stall” should have the positive relationship with “AAM”

OR β 5 should be positive (+)

2 Statistics description

2.1 Graph

Graph 1: Actual plots and fitted line, using observations 1 – 53

2 2 Summary Statistics

Table 1: Main summary statistics, using observations 1 – 53

3 Correlation Matrix

Table 2: Correlation coefficients, using observations 1- 53

(*) The model has no autocorrelation

VI – ECONOMETRICS MODEL

1 Set up a general model (regression model)

We have a research model as below:

PRF: AAM = β 0 + β 1 EviProAware + β 2 SafetyEva + β 3 TasteOfLKT + β 4

BudgetLiving + β 5 ServiceEva + u i

Our regression model is like below:

PRF: AAM = b 0 + b 1 EviProAware + b 2 SafetyEva + b 3 TasteOfLKT + b 4

BudgetLiving + b 5 ServiceEva + e i

Using the OLS method, we come up with this table:

Table 3: OLS, using observations 1-53

According to the table, we can estimate the coefficients:

2 Interpret the model

- Intercept β0 = -0.191413 indicates that when EviProAware, SafetyEva, TasteOfLKT,BudgetLiving, ServiceEva in each state are 0, the average amount of money spent onLemongrass-Kumquat tea with the lowest value is -0.191413

- β1 = 0.0200984 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, ifEviProAware raises 1%, the average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquattea increases 0.0200984

- β2 = 0.0148653 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, ifSafetyEva raises 1%, the average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat teaincreases 0.0148653

- β3 = 0.0302317indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, ifTasteOfLKT raises 1%, the average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat teaincreases 0.0302317

- β4 = 0.0188710 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, ifBudgetLiving raises 1%, the average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquattea increases 0.0188710

- β5 = 0.0171528 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, ifServiceEva raises 1%, the average amount of money spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat teaincreases 0.0171528

- R-square = 0.848227 show that: 84.8227% of the variation in the average amount ofmoney spent on Lemongrass-Kumquat tea is explained by variables

VII – ROBUSTNESS CHECK

1 Multicollinearity

1.1 General theory

In statistics, multicollinearity (also collinearity) is a phenomenon in which one predictorvariable in a multiple regression model can be linearly predicted from the others with asubstantial degree of accuracy In this situation the coefficient estimates of the multipleregression may change erratically in response to small changes in the model or the data.Multicollinearity does not reduce the predictive power or reliability of the model as awhole, at least within the sample data set; it only affects calculations regarding individualpredictors That is, a multivariate regression model with collinear predictors can indicatehow well the entire bundle of predictors predicts the outcome variable, but it may notgive valid results about any individual predictor, or about which predictors are redundantwith respect to others

1.2 Check Multicollinearity

(*) If model has the statistical significance, it does not have check the multicollinearity.But in our case, the model does not have the statistical significance, we will check itthrough the table below

If a VIF > 10, the model has high collinearity and we have to cure it