Climate change adaptation in viet nam

ABBREVIATION GDP Gross domestic product UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change NTP National Target Program for Climate Change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

HCMC UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS AND CONTROL ENGINEERING

ACADEMIC ENGLISH ASSIGNMENT

TOPIC

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION IN VIET NAM

Professor : Dr LY CAM HUNG Student : NGUYEN N N QUYNH Student ID : 0250020074

HO CHI MINH CITY, 2016

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

HCMC UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS AND CONTROL ENGINEERING

ACADEMIC ENGLISH ASSIGNMENT

TOPIC

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION IN VIET NAM

Professor : Dr LY CAM HUNG Student : NGUYEN N N QUYNH Student ID : 0250020074

HO CHI MINH CITY, 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATION ii

INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW 3

1 GENERAL INFORMATION 3

2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIET NAM 4

3 CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES IN VIET NAM 5

4 CLIMATE CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE FASTER THAN EXPECTED 5

CHAPTER 2: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 6

1 IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES 6

2 IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE 6

3 IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY 7

4 IMPACTS ON URBANIZATION 7

CHAPTER 3: STRATEGY 8

CHAPTER 4: BARRIERS AND LESSON LEARNED 9

1 BARRIES 9

2 LESSON LEARNED 9

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 10

REFERENCES 11

ABBREVIATION

GDP Gross domestic product

UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

NTP National Target Program for Climate Change

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

ADB Asian Development Bank

GHG Greenhouse gas

INTRODUCTION

According to medium greenhouse gas emission scenario, at the end of 21st century,

Vietnam’s climate will change significantly

The temperature will rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius in most parts of Viet Nam Experts say a temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius may reduce the yield of rice by 10% and legumes

by 5-20% The annual rainfall will rise in most parts of the country by 2-7%, the Central Highlands and south central provinces will receive precipitation of less than 3% The sea level will rise by 57-73 centimeters along the coast of Viet Nam The southernmost area including Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces will see the highest sea level increase of 62-82 centimeters It’s calculated that a sea level rise of 1 meter without proper coping measures

will result in an approximate 6.3% submergence of Viet Nam’s land, directly affecting 16%

of the country’s population In particular, the Mekong river delta will be worst afflicted with

39% of the land at risk of submergence, impacting 55% of population

But this is not yet the worst scenario because it doesn’t include the gradual sinking of the

land The delta land is extremely weak and constantly shrinking Statistics indicate that areas where mangrove forests have not recovered shrink 1.6 times faster than the nearby areas where mangrove forests remain intact Without proper coping measures, most of the Mekong river delta will be submerged for much of the year and the damage for the region is estimated

at around 17 billion USD in 2030 It is one of the few plains most vulnerable to the rising sea level in the world Coping solutions such as growing mangrove forests to slow down the shrinking land are technically feasible But many measures to prevent floods, submergence, sanitization and drought in the 21st century are beyond the current capacity of Viet Nam Despite its difficulties, Viet Nam as a country responsibly engaged in global issues has actively worked with the international community to reach a global climate change agreement in 2015 to protect the earth, capping the global temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius in 2100 Viet Nam’s intended nationally determined contributions INDC report

indicates that the country would cut its greenhouse gas emission by 8% by itself compared with its national development plan The reduction would reach as much as 25% if the country receives international support in various sectors Some key sectors include energy, agriculture and waste treatment Since the first UN summit on climate change in 1995, in spite of disagreements, the world have been working together to protect the green planet, VN

is part of the course In recent years, international organizations have worked with VN to build policies in coping with climate change The “Support Program to Response to Climate change” is known as a prominent result of cooperation in climate change policy building

between Viet Nam and development partners such as JICA, AFD, WB and CIDA Since

2009, the program has resulted in more than 200 policy actions and attracted financial

support of more than 1 billion USD from VN’S development partners

With support from the international community, Viet Nam has effectively implemented the national strategy and program to cope with climate change, actively performed its responsibilities as a member of the UN framework convention on climate change, reliably participated in international forums on climate change

As one of the countries most heavily hit by climate change, more than 90 million people of Viet Nam are joining hands to protect their beautiful nation from extreme natural changes With its own efforts and support from the international community, Viet Nam through its INDC has reaffirmed its willingness to actively engage in global activities to cope with climate change and fulfill the UN framework convention on climate change Viet Nam believes that its intended contributions are fair, feasible and achievable

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW

Vietnam has the highest population density in Southeast Asia after Singapore, with a national average of 232 people/km2 and up to 1,000 people/km2 in the Northern Delta Since the country lies in the tropical cyclone belt, it is vulnerable to natural disasters, including typhoons, floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion and landslides

According to the National Climate Change Strategy (2011), between 2001 and 2010 damage caused by such disasters resulted in 9,500 deaths and missing persons as well

as the loss of approximately 1.5% of annual GDP The areas projected to suffer increased frequency and intensity of these disasters are largely those with already high levels of poverty At the 2007 13th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Bali, Vietnam was recognized as one of the five countries likely to be most affected by the impacts of climate change Vietnam’s Mekong Delta is one of the world’s three most vulnerable deltas to sea

level rise

A long and exposed coastline, low lying river deltas and an economy that is still very much centered on natural resource based livelihoods all make Vietnam one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change Gradual changes such as sea level rise and higher temperatures, more extreme weather such as foods and drought, and more intense typhoons are all predicted and will have a potentially devastating impact on the country’s people and

economy

The Government of Vietnam is taking the issue of climate change seriously leading national efforts to mitigate disaster risks and climate change through a National Strategy for Disaster Prevention and a National Target Program for Climate Change (NTP) However, as the 2007 IPCC report stressed, it is poor people within developing countries who are most at risk from climate change Despite the economic boom of recent years, there are still significant numbers of poor men and women living in areas of Vietnam particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change

The annual average temperature of Vietnam has increased about 0.7oC in the last 50 years; sea level has increased about 20cm in the same time El-Nino and La-Nina have seriously impacted Vietnam Climate change has made natural disasters, especially storms, floods, and droughts, become increasingly severe It is predicted that the average temperature will increase by 3oC and the average sea level of Vietnam will increase by 1m at the year 2010

According to the World Bank (2007), Vietnam is among the countries which are hardest hit

by climate change and sea level rise Mekong and Red rivers’ delta are projected to be the

most seriously inundated With sea level rise of 1 meter, about 10% of the population would

be directly affected and lost of GDP would be about 10%

About 40.000km2 of the coastal deltas are inundated every year, in which, about 90% of the Mekong River delta is almost completely inundated If sea level rises by 3 meters, about 25%

of the population would be directly affected with GDP lost of about 25%

Climate change impacts to Vietnam are considered to be serious It is obviously a challenge

to the cause of hunger eradication and poverty reduction, the implementation of millennium

development goals, and the country’s sustainable development Sectors, areas, and localities

vulnerable to climate change are defined as Water resources, Agriculture and Food Security, Public Health, Deltas and coastal areas The Government of Vietnam, with a clear vision on climate change impacts, early ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol

In summary the variability of the climate, particularly extremes resulting in climate-related disasters such as foods, droughts, and typhoons is a fundamental cause of poverty in Vietnam Poor people, who have limited coping capacity to current climate variability, may

be pushed beyond this coping range if faced with more severe variations or with future

climate change impacts Climate change is likely to worsen poverty and hinder Vietnam’s

efforts to achieve its development objectives

Climate change and sea level rise scenarios developed for Vietnam are based on different

greenhouse gas emission scenarios of IPCC’s 4th report (IPCC 2007),namely a low scenario

(B1), medium scenarios (B2, A1B), and scenarios of the high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission (A2, A1FI).Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation are developed for seven climate regions in Vietnam: North West, North East, Northern Delta, North Central Region, South Central Region, Central Highlands, and Southern Region

Temperatures at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)

 Low emission scenario (B1): annual average temperature increases by 1.6–2.2 °C

 Medium emission scenario (B2): annual average temperature increases by 2–3 °C

 High emission scenario (A2, A1F1): annual average temperature increases by

 2.5–3.7 °C

Precipitation at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)

 Low emission scenario (B1): annual precipitation increases 2–6 %

 Medium emission scenario (B2): annual precipitation increases 2–7 %

 High emission scenario (A2, A1F1): annual precipitation increases 2–10 %

Sea level rise at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)

 Low emission scenario (B1): average sea level may increase by 49–64 cm

 Medium emission scenario (B2): average sea level may increase by 57–73 cm

 High emission scenario (A2, A1FI): average sea level may increase by 78–95 cm

By the end of the 21st century, the number of days with maximum temperature of over 350

°C increases from 15 to 30 days in almost all regions in the country based on the medium

emission scenario A1B (MONRE 2012a, b)

In the future, the general trend is that the maximum daily precipitation increases in the North West, North East, Red River Delta and North Central Regions, and decrease in the South Central Coastal, Central Highlands, and the South Regions (MONRE 2012a, b)

The updating of such climate change and sea level rise scenarios has been determined in the national strategy on climate change and in order to provide the most updated information about behavior, tendency of climate change in the past and the climate change and sea level rise scenarios in the 21st century in Vietnam Vietnam built the first climate change scenarios

in 2009 and updated it for the second time in 2012 and for the third time in 2015

A comparison between the 2012 and 2015 scenarios shows that climate change has been taking place faster

For example, according to 2015 scenarios, under the medium emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), average temperature rise is from 1.3 to 1.7oC in middle 21st century; from 1.7 to 2.4oC at the end of the century This rise is much lower than forecast level in 2012 (maximum temperature rise of 3oC)

Nevertheless, under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5), temperature rise at the end of 21st century is expected to reach 4oC, while the forecast in 2012 is only 3.7oC

The rainfall indicator differs strongly between the climate change scenario in 2012 and in

2015 Rainfall increase, as forecast in 2012, is 2-10% but now the scientists project it to be 5-15% High rainfall increases in rain season while in dry season, rainfall tends to decrease Hence, drought and floods would become more complicated

Based on actual situation as well as advanced calculation models, the sea level rise estimated for 2015 also differs from what is forecast in 2012

According to the recent publications, at average emissions level, at the end of 21st century, the maximum sea level will be 83 cm (1cm higher than the 2012 scenario) Under the high emissions, sea level would increase up to 107cm (2cm higher than 2012 scenario)

Most importantly, according to the 2014 flood map, the flooding area is larger than 2012 forecast figure For example, if sea level rises by 1m, about 17.57% area of Red river delta would be submerged (2012 scenario: 10%), 1.47% area of coastal central provinces from

Thanh Hoa to Binh Thuan province (2012 scenario: 2.5%), 17.84% the area of Ho Chi Minh city and 4.79% area of Ba Ria Vung Tau would be submerged

Mekong river delta is highly prone to flooding (39.40% of area), of which Kien Giang province Kien Giang is the most likely to be flooded (75% of area) Islands subject to flooding include Van Don Islands, Con Dao islands, and Phu Quoc Island The risk of flooding for natural islands in Truong Sa archipelago is minimum Hoang Sa archipelago is more likely to be flooded, particularly Luoi Liem and Tri Ton islands

CHAPTER 2: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Viet Nam is located in the down streams of two major international rivers: the Mekong and Red Rivers The area of Mekong river basin is about 795,000 km2 while its annual water runoff to the East Sea is 505 billion m3 The Red River has a basin of 169,000 km2 in area; annually transporting to the East Sea 138 billion m3 of water The impacts of climate change on water run-off from the Red and Mekong Rivers will be as follows:

Compared with the present, by the decade 2070, annual runoff is projected to increase within the range of +5.8 to 19.0% for Red River and from +4.2 to 14.5% for Mekong River, low-flow changes are likely to be in the range of -10.3 – 14.5% for the Red

River and -2.0 – 24.0% for Mekong River while food-top discharge will likely change

within the range of +12.0 – 5.0% for the Red River and +15.0 – 7% for Mekong River

In summary, in both rivers, the decline in annual run-off is likely to be higher for low-flow, and surplus in annual run-of is likely to be higher for food-top discharge

In medium and small rivers, annual run-off would likely reduce or increase by a similar or higher amount

With the projected warming of the country, the adaptation time of tropical crops will be extended As estimated, the allocation of vegetation is likely to change as follows:

The planting boundary of tropical trees crops would move towards higher mountainous regions and northwards On the other hand, the adaptation area of subtropical plants would become narrower By the 2070s, the mountainous tropical trees would be able to grow at an altitude 100-550 meters higher and move 100-200 km northwards in comparison with the present

Due to abnormal changes in rainfall intensity, food inundation and droughts would occur more frequently