Climate change adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries an examination of municipal climate action plans

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN COASTAL CITIES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EXAMINATION OF MUNICIPAL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS by Tu Dam Ngoc Le September 01, 2019 A dissertation submitted to t

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN COASTAL CITIES

OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EXAMINATION OF

MUNICIPAL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS

by

Tu Dam Ngoc Le

September 01, 2019

A dissertation submitted to the

faculty of the Graduate School of

the University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Dissertation committee:

Professor, Dr George William Page

Associate Professor, Dr Jiyoung Park

Assistant Professor, Dr Zoé A Hamstead

Professor, Dr Errol Meidinger

@ Copyright by

Tu Dam Ngoc Le

2019

DEDICATION

I want to dedicate my dissertation to people in coastal cities who are suffering from

coastal hazards and increasing impacts of climate change and sea level rise I wish that proper

adaptation planning and prompt responses will contribute to alleviate the vulnerabilities of

coastal residents and cities

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to my country, family, advisors, colleagues, and friends Particularly, I

acknowledge the scholarship received toward the doctoral degree from the Vietnam International

Education Development, Vietnam Ministry of Education and Training Without their

sponsorship, I could not make this advanced education

I would like to thank my advisor, Prof George William Page for his excellent guidance

and invaluable support throughout my study from formulating the research topic to the very end

step of completion of this dissertation I want to extend my appreciation to my committee

members: c for their insightful advice and extensive support during my study I also

acknowledge the constructive feedback from Dr Emmanuel F Boamah on the draft of my

papers I also want to thank my fellow doctoral students and friends: Yasmein, Ilham, Herbert,

Jimin, Hao, Smitha, Huong Nguyen, and My Nguyen for their companion and continuous

encouragement

Especially, I wish to give my most profound appreciation to my parents, husband, my

lovely kids, father-in-law, and in the memory of my grandmother and mother-in-law Without

their love, tolerance, and strong support, it would not be possible for me to pursue this Ph.D

education and complete this dissertation

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DEDICATION III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS V

ABSTRACT IX

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Theoretical foundation of climate change adaptation 3

1.1.1 Climate change adaptation 4

1.1.2 Hazard, risk, and vulnerability assessment 8

1.1.3 The concept of resilience 11

1.1.4 Pathways of adaptation and urban resilience 12

1.2 Practices of municipal climate adaptation planning 14

1.2.1 Local governments and the role of municipal climate adaptation plan 14

1.2.2 Relationship between vulnerability and adaptation in planning practices 18

1.2.3 Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience in adaptation planning 20

1.3 Studies of municipal adaptation planning 22

1.4 Study region: coastal cities in developing countries 24

1.5 Organization, questions, and hypotheses 25

CHAPTER TWO: Climate change adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries:

Characterizing types of vulnerability and adaptation options 29

2.1 Introduction 30

2.2 Framework for tracking coastal climate change adaptation planning in developing countries 32

2.3 Methodology 39

2.4 Results 44

2.4.1 Exposure to natural hazards and climate risks in coastal cities of developing countries 44 2.4.2 Issues and drivers of social sensitivity 47

2.4.3 Adaptive capacity of coastal cities in developing countries 50

2.4.4 Adaptation options and strategies 54

2.5 Discussion 57

2.6 Limitation 59

2.7 Conclusion 60

CHAPTER THREE: Exploring vulnerability and adaptation response relationships in the context of coastal cities in developing countries 62

3.1 Introduction 63

3.2 Methodology 67

3.3 Results 73

3.3.1 Disparities of vulnerability level and adaptation response by city size 73

3.3.2 Relationship between vulnerability level and adaptation response 74

3.3.3 Relationship between types of vulnerability and adaptation typologies 76

3.3.4 Influence of city size on the vulnerability-adaptation relationship 79

3.4 Discussion 81

3.4.1 Vulnerability - Adaptation relationship and issues of vulnerability framework 81

3.4.2 Adaptation options for different types of vulnerability 82

3.4.3 The matter of city size: implications for planning practices and resource distribution 88

3.5 Limitation 89

3.6 Conclusion 90

CHAPTER FOUR: Theoretical frameworks in climate change adaptation planning: A comparative study in coastal cities of developing countries 92

4.1 Introduction 93

4.2 Theoretical framework of climate change adaptation planning 95

4.3 Methodology 98

4.3.1 Sample selection 98

4.3.2 Study approach 100

4.4 Influence of theoretical framework and controlling variables on the formulation of adaptation measures 108

4.5 Comparing the influence of theoretical frameworks on adaptation measures 112

4.6 Discussion 113

4.7 Conclusion 117

CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION 119

REFERENCES 125

Appendix 1 List of case studies 136

Appendix 2: Ranking scale of types of risk and vulnerability 140

Appendix 3: Types of risk and vulnerability in coastal cities in developing countries 159

Appendix 4: Formulated adaptation options and strategies 163

ABSTRACT

Adaptation planning is crucial for cities and their communities to plan for and take

actions to tackle climate change, the current greatest risk to human-being and ecosystem Cities

across many regions have benefited from the scholarship development of vulnerability,

adaptation, and resilience Reflective studies to track these planning practices, however, are

scarce at the city level in developing countries Especially while climate change poses an acute

impact on the coastal cities of developing countries, there are no broad-scale comparative studies

of municipal adaptation plans in this context

This dissertation, formatted into three papers, aims to fill three important gaps of

municipal climate adaptation planning The first paper seeks to unpack the state-of-the-art of

adaptation planning in 45 coastal cities in developing countries, particularly focusing on

understanding the types of vulnerability and exploring the planned adaptation options Using

content analysis on the planning documents, the study found that vulnerability in this local

context is not only the climate change impacts, but more importantly, the sensitive

socio-economic status, the insufficient infrastructure system, and limited capacity Adaptation options,

correspondingly, aim to address current vulnerabilities rather than climate change impacts

The second paper strikes to explore the relationship between vulnerability and adaptation

Using ANOVA and multiple regression analysis, this paper found an inconsistency between

vulnerability level and the extent of adaptation responses but a significant relationship between

exposure level and the number of institutional measures This study also found a matter of city

size while the vulnerability level is not statistically different between large and small cities, the

capacity for adaptation is notably different with large cities tend to propose a significantly high

number of adaptation initiatives

The third paper examines the influence of theoretical frameworks on the adaptation

planning outcome The finding shows a significant difference in planning outcome associated

with the theoretical framework that guides the planning process The vulnerability-based

framework tackles the issues of climate change sufficiently with a relatively equal focus on

structural, social, and institutional aspects The hazard-based approach shares resources for both climate change and other matters and focuses prominently on structural measures The urban

resilience framework puts more efforts into other issues rather than climate change, with the most emphasis on social initiatives

Several important implications emerge from these findings First, municipal climate

change adaptation in developing countries cannot separate from socio-economic development

and capacity building, and a coordination mechanism for inter-policy is necessary Second,

adaptation planning in cities needs to be more focused on vulnerabilities for better understanding

their causes to take proper actions that account for potential climate change impacts and future

needs Third, institutional measures should be promoted to address rising exposure to coastal

hazards and climate change Fourth, planners should acknowledge the distinctive influence of

theoretical frameworks on the formulation of adaptation options The planning process,

therefore, should apply a comprehensive vulnerability assessment to minimize the framing bias

issue Lastly, given the uncertainty and increasing impact of climate change, the large and small

cities should receive equal attention and proportional resources to tackle this global issue

CHAPTER ONE:

INTRODUCTION

Risks from climate change are inevitable even with mitigation and adaptation (IPCC,

2014b) While mitigation needs the international commitment to emission reduction1, adaptation

can be managed effectively at the local level Adaptation planning can provide cities and their

communities a comprehensive approach to assessing existing vulnerabilities, potential climate

change impacts, and identifying strategies to adapt (Bierbaum et al., 2013) Bearing current and

potential impacts of climate-related hazards, coupled with non-climatic factors, cities need to

identify their vulnerabilities, shocks, or stresses to respond appropriately With international

assistance and collaboration, many cities in developing and especially the least-developed

countries have made significant progress in shaping their climate action plans to adapt to climate

change (Dodman, 2012; Tyler et al., 2014) Tracking the practices of climate adaptation planning

is necessary to offer interactive lessons between theory and practice

Along with the development of vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience scholarship,

municipalities across the world have applied theoretical frameworks in adaptation planning

practices Many studies have examined adaptation planning progress These studies, as reported

in the literature, are primarily focused on developed countries, for instance (Baker, Peterson,

Brown, & McAlpine, 2012; Baynham & Stevens, 2014; Morsch, 2010; Tang, Brody, Quinn,

Chang, & Wei, 2010; Woodruff & Stults, 2016) Although the development of local climate

adaptation planning in developing countries was initiated relatively early with the city of Cape

Town, South Africa in 2006 (Mukheibir & Ziervogel, 2007), there are very few studies of the

municipal climate adaptation planning in this local context Studies mainly focus on single cases;

examples include Sorsogon, Philippines (Button, Mias-Mamonong, Barth, & Rigg, 2013),

Semarang, Indonesia (Wijaya, 2015), and Maputo, Mozambique (Broto, Boyd, & Ensor, 2015)

Few existing case studies provide an analytic comparison Tanner, Mitchell, Polack, and

Guenther (2009) looked at urban governance for adaptation in ten Asian cities Sharma, Singh,

and Singh (2013) examined the methodology of urban climate resilience planning in Indian

cities Nevertheless, there are no broad-scale comparative studies of municipal adaptation plans

across multiple cities in developing countries from different regions in the world

Specifically, coastal cities in developing countries are increasingly sensitive due to

climate change impacts coupled with non-climatic factors Projected sea-level rise (SLR)

exacerbates the adverse impacts of submergence, flooding, and erosion in coastal systems and

low-lying regions (IPCC, 2014b) Worldwide, as many as 20 million people are already living

below normal high tides, and more than 200 million people are currently vulnerable to flooding

by extreme sea levels (Nicholls, 2010) Rapid urbanization, dense population, and a high rate of

informal settlement have increased the vulnerability of those cities (Surjan, Parvin, Atta, &

Shaw, 2016) Comparative studies of coastal cities’ adaptation plans are still scarce Therefore, it

is urgent for a study of adaptation plans focusing on this local context

This dissertation will contribute to the discourse of climate change adaptation planning,

especially the subfield of adaptation tracking, by seeking to fill three important gaps First, the

study seeks to unpack the state-of-the-art of adaptation planning practices in coastal cities of

developing countries by characterizing the types of vulnerability and planned adaptation options

Second, the study aims to explore the relationship between vulnerability and adaptation

responses Third, the study tests the influence of the theoretical framework that guides the

planning process on the planning outcome

In this introduction, I present the theoretical foundation of climate change adaptation that

illustrates how the concept of adaptation evolves and links with other concepts, including hazard,

risk, vulnerability, and resilience I then discuss the practices of municipal climate adaptation

planning to reveal how local governments use climate action plans for climate change adaptation,

the relationship of vulnerability and adaptation in planning practices, and studies of adaptation

tracking at the municipal level Next, I situate this study in the coastal cities of developing

countries and justify why I choose this local context for the research setting Last is the outline of

organization, research questions, and hypotheses of the dissertation

1.1 Theoretical foundation of climate change adaptation

A generalized adaptation planning framework comprises five main phases: vulnerability

assessment, adaptation planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation, and strategy

revision, with stakeholder engagement in all phases (Bierbaum et al., 2013) (Figure 1.1)

Theoretically, vulnerability is considered as the impetus of adaptation options since the existence

of specific vulnerability leads to the need for adaptation

The two first components are crucial in developing an adaptation plan, while the three

last ones are more related to on-the-ground implementation This study concentrates on the two

first components of this adaptation process, the identification of risks and vulnerabilities

(hereafter referred as vulnerability assessment) and the planning, assessing, and selecting options

(hereafter referred as adaptation planning) These practices are guided by the theory of climate

change adaptation, the framework of risk and vulnerability assessment, and recently, the

emerging concept of resilience

Figure 1.1 Generalized adaptation process

Source: Reprinted from (Bierbaum et al., 2013)

1.1.1 Climate change adaptation

In climate change science, there are numerous definitions of adaptation (see detail in

Smit, Burton, Klein, and Wandel (2000), Adger, Arnell, and Tompkins (2005)) The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as

The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects In human

systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial

opportunities In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate

adjustment to expected climate and its effects (IPCC, 2014b)

Adaptation involves changes in ecological, social or economic systems in coping with

actual and projected impacts of climate change with the interaction of non-climatic factors to

alleviate or avoid harm or take advantage of new opportunities (Moser & Ekstrom, 2010)

Setting the context of adaptation planning in the eco-socio-economic system is necessary since

human activities occur under the mutual interaction between societal (human) and ecological

(biophysical) subsystems (Gallopín, 2006) Many non-climatic factors, including social,

Stakeholder Engagement

economic, political, and cultural conditions, will affect human behavior in response to external

climatic stress The non-climatic factors are seen as the pre-conditions, and in some societies, causes of people’s vulnerability to climatic impacts

Dimensions of adaptation

Adaptation can be classified based on types, timing, or characteristics Adaptation

responses can be autonomous or planned, reactive or anticipatory, and can take the form of

technology, economy, legislation, or institutions Autonomous adaptation usually occurs

reactively and comes from communities’ experiences and individual actions to adapt (Adger,

Huq, Brown, Conway, & Hulme, 2003) Planned anticipatory adaptation involves long-term

strategies that are the result of deliberate policy decisions and have the potential not only to

reduce vulnerability but also to realize opportunities associated with climate change (Burton,

Challenger, Huq, Klein, & Yohe, 2001; Smit et al., 2000) Planned adaptation is assumed to be

undertaken by the government on behalf of society (Adger et al., 2003) In practice, the

distinction between autonomous and planned adaptation may be fuzzy and the types may be

supplemental to each other (Füssel, 2007a) Reactive or autonomous adaptation can provide

lessons and experiences for planned adaption Planned adaptation can create new conditions for

the better practice of autonomous adaptation

Adaptation can involve building adaptive capacity or implementing adaptation decisions

(Adger et al., 2005) Building adaptive capacity means to enhance the capability of individuals,

groups, or organizations to become adapted to a particular range of environmental incidents

(Adger et al., 2005; Gallopín, 2006) Adaptation decisions can range from incremental to

transformative options that can change the social roots of vulnerability Adaptation is diversified

and involves many climatic and non-climatic domains To address the issue of adaptation

planning more efficiently, one should take an inclusive approach that can consider the issue from

many perspectives, which can combine multiple forms to address one type or multiple climate

hazards at different time scales

The need for adaptation occurs when the climate event exceeds the coping range and is

likely becoming more frequent in the future (Füssel, 2007a) The coping range is a given extent

within which the community is assumed to be well adapted to a climate variation Climate

change projection, however, is a subject of uncertainty It hinders the investment decisions of

society to extend their coping range if a previously extreme event would become increasingly

frequent in the future More accurate information on climate change will help to define a better

coping range, thus reducing the total costs of adaptation Adaptation strategies, therefore, should

take into account both observed and expected climate stimuli and consider extreme events to

define the necessary coping range (Füssel, 2007a)

Theoretical development of climate change adaptation

The evolution of climate change adaptation has shifted from a single-dimension approach

to an integrative approach that interacts with the theoretical framework of vulnerability

assessment and the framework of urban resilience

The first generation, hazard-based approach, is a top-down approach or a linear

cause-effect chain that is triggered by climate change scenarios This model focuses on future climate

change impacts to identify proper adaptation options (Carter, Parry, Harasawa, & Nishioka,

1994; Füssel, 2007a; Smit & Wandel, 2006) Although this model is crucial for risk assessment

and awareness-raising, it fails to address non-climatic factors that are essential for the system to

cope with new impetuses, such as current socio-economic impediments, or rights or entitlements

to resource assess

The vulnerability-based approach takes a more inclusive approach to assess future

climate change in consideration of existing climate risks and non-climatic factors This approach

focuses strongly on social factors and takes into account the involvement of stakeholders from

the outset and the past experiences of communities for the formulation of adaptation decisions

The model assumes that given the same hazard attack, the loss is different between different

communities based on their socio-economic predispositions The approach, therefore, can yield a

useful result even if there is a lack of reliable climate change scenarios, and the result can be

immediately applied since it emphasizes enhancing the vulnerability of socio-economic status It

is most useful for identifying priority areas and vulnerable groups for actions This approach,

however, strongly relies on local context and qualitative methods such as expert judgment Thus

it is difficult to have a generalizable, clear methodology and comparability across regions

(Füssel, 2007a)

Integrated from different perspectives of former models, the complex integrative

approach suggests the mainstreaming climate adaptation into existing management activities and

development plans (Füssel, 2007a) The model situates climate adaptation among other

development goals and policy contexts It considers current climate variability, future climate

change, and also non-climate factors and its development as the driving force for the need of

adaptation This approach is particularly relevant to developing and least developed countries,

where people are still suffering from their current socio-economic issues and shortages of

resources due to low levels of capital, human, and technological capacity For instance, since

2003, there has been an effort to mainstream climate change adaptation in sectoral planning in

the least developed countries (Huq, Rahman, Konate, Sokona, & Reid, 2003)

1.1.2 Hazard, risk, and vulnerability assessment

Hazard is defined as the potential of occurrence of a natural or human-made physical

event or trend that may cause fatalities, injuries, or other health impacts, and damage or loss to

assets, livelihoods, service delivery, infrastructure, ecosystems and environmental resources

(IPCC, 2014b) Natural hazard refers to climate-related physical events and their physical

impacts A hazard is measured by its character, magnitude, frequency, duration, and the areal

extent to which it impacts (Burton, Kates, & White, 1993)

Risk refers to the possibility for consequences where something of value is in jeopardy

with the uncertainty of outcome, recognizing the diversity of values Risk is characterized by the

multiplication of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of hazardous events or trends and the magnitude of these events’ consequences if they occur (IPCC, 2014b) Risk relates to the

hazard impact on a specific system, for instance, people, livelihoods, their assets, the social,

economic, or ecological system If a hazard occurs in an area with no people or values being

affected, there is no risk (GFFDRR, 2014)

Vulnerability refers to the predisposition of a system to be adversely affected by external

stress (IPCC, 2014b) To some extent, the evolution of vulnerability assessment overlaps with

the theory of climate change adaptation since the vulnerability assessment aims to inform the

development of adaptation policies There are multiple models for assessing vulnerability The

risk-hazard framework, prevailing in the field of risk and disaster management, denotes internal

biophysical vulnerability, which considers vulnerability as the dose-response relationship

between an external hazard and its adverse impacts (Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon, & Davis, 2004)

This approach examines vulnerability as hazards’ impacts determined by exposure to hazards

and sensitivity or the degree of damages in a way more focused on economic estimation of losses

or damages (Burton et al., 1993; Füssel, 2007b) The social constructivist framework or

political-economic model argues that non-climatic determinants of vulnerability, such as communities’

prior socio-economic conditions, determine the impacts of different groups or communities by

climate variability and change (Adger, 1999; Füssel, 2007b; Füssel & Klein, 2006) The

pressure-and-release model (PAR model) examines vulnerability as a result of integrated

pressures, including limited access to resources and economic-political systems, global, social

pressures, and unsafe local conditions (Wisner et al., 2004) The hazard-of-place model or

integrated approach is a combination of the risk-hazard approach and the political-economic

model but with a more areal focus Vulnerability is the integration of both biophysical risk and

social response but within a geographical domain (Cutter, 1996)

Evolved from the former models, the

integrated vulnerability assessment is

constructed from three interactive dimensions

of exposure, sensitivity or socio-economic

vulnerability, and adaptive capacity (Adger,

2006; Füssel & Klein, 2006; IPCC, 2007)

(Figure 1.2)

Exposure is the character, magnitude,

frequency, duration, and areal extent of

climate variation a system experiences (Adger, 2006; Burton et al., 1993) It refers to the

physical presence of people, livelihoods, species, or ecosystem, environmental, economic, social,

or cultural resources in places that are put in harm (IPCC, 2014b) Exposure represents an

external side of vulnerability, denotes the relationship between the system and the external

Figure 1.2 Framework of vulnerability

assessment

Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007)

Adaptive Capacity

Exposure Sensitivity

Biophysical Vulnerability Socio-economic Vulnerability

VULNERABILITY

perturbation while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are the internal attributes of the system

(Gallopín, 2006)

Sensitivity indicates to the degree to which a system is affected directly or indirectly,

detrimentally or beneficially, by climate variability or change (IPCC, 2007) Scholars have

different definitions regarding sensitivity as the extent to which a system can absorb impacts

without suffering long-term harm (Smith, Klein, & Huq, 2003), or as the degree that a system is

modified or influenced by an external or internal perturbation (Adger, 2006; Gallopín, 2006)

Measurably, sensitivity is the predisposing conditions or inherent attributes of a system, part of

the socio, economic, political or cultural dimensions that incline people to risk or enable them to

cope with stress (Cutter, Emrich, Webb, & Morath, 2009; Shepard et al., 2012)

Adaptive capacity is another internal attribute of the system, which represents the

system’s ability to adjust to a disturbance to moderate potential damages, take advantage of

opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (Gallopín, 2006; IPCC, 2014b) It can be

interchangeable between adaptive capacity with coping capacity or capacity of response

“Coping ability” tends to be applied for short-term capacity to survive while “adaptive capacity”

or “capacity of response” implies longer-term or more sustainable adjustment (Gallopín, 2006;

Smit & Wandel, 2006) Since adaptive capacity is an inherent attribute of the system that exists

before the disturbance, there is a wide range of building adaptive capacity for the system to

prepare and respond to projected stress Given the increasingly important role of adaptive

capacity in alleviating overall vulnerability, much of adaptation planning emphasizes building

the capacity of the city In this way, the concept of resilience has grown to guide planning

practices

1.1.3 The concept of resilience

Resilience denotes the capacity of a social or ecological system to cope with a

disturbance or an external event, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain its essential

function, identity, and structure (IPCC, 2014b) This concept has roots in the natural sciences and

entered the field of ecology with the rise of systems thinking in the 1960s (Davoudi et al., 2012)

The systems theorists argued that poor performance, organizational failure, and inability to adapt

are caused by the deficiency of individual cognitive skills and capabilities compared to the

complexity of the systems that they are urged to manage (Forrester 1961, cited in (Senge &

Sterman, 1992)) Influenced by this systems thinking perspective, resilience considers the

deficiency of cognition and capability within the socio-ecological system Holling (1973), a

theoretical ecologist, defined principles of resilience through the distinction between engineering

and ecological resilience Engineering resilience refers to the capacity of a system to bounce

back to a steady state after a shock, which could be a natural disaster In this case, resilience

consists of the resistance of disturbance and the return time of the system to equilibrium

Ecological resilience is “the magnitude of the disturbance that can be absorbed before the system

changes its structure” (Holling, 1996, p 33) This perspective focuses on “the ability to persist” and “the ability to adapt,” and acknowledge “the existence of multiple equilibria” (Davoudi et

al., 2012, pp 300, 301) The former noted that the single-state equilibrium is the ability to revert

the system to a previous status post-disturbance, which is dominant in the field of disaster

management Meanwhile, the latter noted that multiple-state equilibrium theorizes that the

system has various stable states and may be transformed from one stability domain to another in

the face of a disturbance (Holling, 1996; Meerow, Newell, & Stults, 2016)

The notion of multistability is now widespread in the concept of resilience, representing

the dynamics of resilience It depicts the trajectory of a system to cope with a climate extreme or

disaster through multiple equilibrium stages, which are determined by the capacity of the system

(Gallopín, 2006) Scholars identify three levels of stability, corresponding to domains or basins

of attraction An attraction domain is a portion of state space where the system tends to remain in

the absence of severe disturbances (Gallopín, 2006) The first, engineering resilience or local

stability, refers to the persistence of a system within a given domain of attraction The second

level denotes the adjustment of the system between different domains of attraction but within the

stability landscape of the system The third level comprises changes in the structural stability

landscape itself, representing the possibility of a transformation of the original system to a

different one (ibid.)

1.1.4 Pathways of adaptation and urban resilience

With the positive connotation of focusing on the “strengthening” of local communities,

resilience is increasingly preferable over the commonly used terms such as “impacts and

vulnerability” (McEvoy et al., 2013) Cities have considered resilience as a desirable goal in the

face of climate change (Meerow et al., 2016) with multiple possible stages of equilibrium

Meanwhile, adaptation is conceived of as a dynamic and multi-layered process (Pelling, 2011)

Climate change is a process with high uncertainty Thus, it requires the society to adjust and be

flexible to adapt to new stimuli continuously Adaptation is not only a technological but more

importantly a social and political interaction with the contemporary and the potentiality for

reshaping future power relations in society (Inderberg, Eriksen, O'Brien, & Sygna, 2014; Pelling,

2011)

Pelling (2011) proposes a three-level framework of adaptation: resilience – transition –

transformation This framework also denotes the pathways to three levels of stability in an urban

resilience state (Meerow et al., 2016) Adaptation as resilience refers to the functional

persistence, i.e., the system’s ability to absorb the disturbance within the current functional

system (McEvoy, Fünfgeld, & Bosomworth, 2013; Pelling, 2011) In this model, the

communities have the ability for social learning, the capacity and processes to disseminate,

popularise, and make dominant of new values, ideas, and practices, and self-organization, the

tendency to form social collectives formally or informally without direction from higher-level

actors (Pelling, 2011)

Transition refers to incremental reform in the application of governance at separate

policy sectors or specific physical areas A transitional adaptation can happen when adaptations

intervene in the relationship between individual political actors and the administrative structure

These are potentially from the bottom-up For instance, the promotion of stakeholder

participation can produce new added perspectives and values in the decision-making process

Also, the replication, scaling-up, and mainstreaming of multiple, small initiatives can have a

broader influence leading to transformational change (ibid.)

Transformation is a radical change in a socio-political regime Regarding urban

governance, transformation requires the social contract based on the prerequisite of human

security in the distribution of rights and responsibilities in risk management as a part of

development These requirements embed climate change adaptation within ongoing development

struggles for rights and powers (ibid.) In a holistic approach, transformation is an interaction

between the practical, political, and personal sphere In other words, the beliefs, values, and

worldviews of individual social actors will shape the socio-political systems, which in turn will

facilitate or constrain the technical and behavioral changes to adaptation (Inderberg et al., 2014)

Identification of adaptation pathways, as well as desired resilience stages, depends on the

framing of the vulnerability and adaptation issue When a vulnerability is credited to local

proximate causes, such as inappropriate land use or unsafe building regulations, the adaptation

will be likely incremental Contrarily, if a vulnerability is framed as the outcome of broader

social and political processes that shape the relationship of people with the socio-ecological

environment and their role within the political system, then transformational adaptation become

relevant (Pelling, 2011)

1.2 Practices of municipal climate adaptation planning

1.2.1 Local governments and the role of municipal climate adaptation plan

Given the place-based nature of climate variability, local response plays an essential role

in adaptation since they are the first responders to climate impacts The role of local response has

strengthened since 2002 when Local Action 21 mandated municipal authorities worldwide to

move from agenda to action and ensure an acceleration of implementing sustainable

development (Otto-Zimmermann, 2002) For decades, national and international programs have

assisted local municipalities in developing local climate action plans across both developed and

developing countries For instance, the Cities for Climate Protection Programme provides

technical assistance to more than 650 local jurisdictions worldwide (Baker et al., 2012) The

Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) has sponsored the process of

climate action planning and implementation measures in Asian cities since 2008 (Tyler et al.,

2014) The program of Cities and Climate Change Initiative, launched by the United Nations

Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat) in 2009, promotes climate change mitigation and

adaptation in developing and least-developed country cities (Dodman, 2012; Sierra, Flores, &

Zamora, 2009) As a result of these local efforts, numerous cities have made significant progress

in shaping their climate action plans Worldwide, local climate action plans (CAPs) have

contributed positively to reducing GHG emissions as well as formulating climate adaptation

agendas (Baker et al., 2012; Millard-Ball, 2012)

A climate adaptation plan plays an important role in setting an agenda for local

government in response to climate change among other priorities As categorized by Ingram et

al (2014), adaptation planning focuses on four main essential areas The first area emphasizes

the enhancement of adaptive capacity, including raising awareness, disseminating knowledge,

and training skills for institutions and stakeholders The second involves the management of the

socio-economic impacts of climate change and variability, as well as assessment and reduction of

vulnerability of people, places, and sectors The third is to promote opportunities for

coordination and cooperation between and among stakeholders The last one refers to the

mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into local development plans and sectoral

development projects These four intervention areas, together, contribute to leveraging the

socio-economic conditions, building capacity and networks, and tackling the impact of climate change

Given the uncertainty of climate change projections, the mainstreaming approach yields

an effective result for local communities while addressing climate change issue within other

development priorities It takes into account the local policy and management context (Füssel,

2007a) Cities have integrated climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction and city

planning (Taylor & Lassa, 2015; Wijaya, 2015), or have mainstreamed climate change into local

land use plans, local development plans or coastal management (Cuevas, 2016; Florano, 2015;

Pasquini, Ziervogel, Cowling, & Shearing, 2015; Sales Jr, 2009)

A climate adaptation plan has offered local government ways to address not only the

impact of climate change but also domestic issues and structural deficiencies The vulnerability

assessment will help to identify vulnerable hotspots and their causes The recognition of

vulnerability is crucial for the just distribution of resources (Fraser, 1997; Schlosberg, 2012;

Young, 1990) It provides the input for climate action planning to mitigate hazard impacts and

address the social roots of vulnerability For instance, zoning disaster-prone areas in the city of

Sorsogon, Philippines has helped to eliminate continuing development in these areas and move

toward new development in safer zones (Button et al., 2013) Identification of the most

vulnerable communities has directed the redistribution of local resources, for instance, the

installation of an early warning system at these communities, or the construction of hazard

mitigation structures

The methodology in adaptation planning additionally provides the local government a

useful instrument to reinforce the planning process as well as implementation, monitoring, and

evaluation of adaptation strategies The participatory approach promotes a network development

both horizontally and vertically for the collaboration between local government, the community,

and higher-level government, as well as between local government and line sectors It creates a

mechanism for network building, joint-learning, and co-production of knowledge Cities can

transfer their experience and strategies, learn from others, and share their institutional hurdles

(Carmin, Anguelovski, & Roberts, 2012) The incorporation of climate change consideration has

shifted cities from short-term planning to a long-term horizon and will help to address local

issues more comprehensively from economic, environmental, and social angles Thus, it will

need not only an incremental adaptation but also a transformative adaptation that can treat the

social roots of vulnerability (Pelling, 2011)

A community-based approach is usually used in developing countries since not every city

has ready scientific data They also lack resources, capacity, and best practices available, which

“promote innovation and attention to the most crucial needs and subpopulations, and the

advancement of policies and initiatives that are grounded in local context and cultures”

(Anguelovski & Carmin, 2011, p 173) The community-based approach targets vulnerable

communities and develops activities to strengthen the adaptive capacity of local people (Ayers &

Forsyth, 2009; Ensor, Berger, & Huq, 2014), encourages community involvement from the

starting steps of the planning process to identify vulnerable areas and local issues (Button et al.,

2013) This approach is also an effective instrument to co-opt indigenous and local knowledge

into the planning process, such as small-scale or autonomous adaptation strategies (Marfai,

Sekaranom, & Ward, 2015; Taylor & Lassa, 2015) Community-based adaptation can capture the

local social vulnerability rather than only physical climate risks for the creation of place-based

resilience building (Ayers & Forsyth, 2009) Climate action planning creates a mechanism for

engaging with local priorities, particularly those of the most vulnerable populations, and for

bridging the gap between policymaking and the real life in the city (Luque, Edwards, & Lalande,

2013)

The sectoral engagement in the planning process creates favorable conditions for

mainstreaming climate change into sectoral activities For instance, health and water issues were

included in the development of Durban’s municipal adaptation plans (Carmin et al., 2012) The

implementation of adaptation strategies is integrated into education and capacity building for

students, for instance, swimming courses in frequently flooded areas and revising school

curriculum with climate change knowledge (Berke & French, 1994; Luque et al., 2013; Reed,

2013) Sectoral engagement ensures the comprehensiveness and consensus across sectors in

formulating adaptation strategies and avoids the maladaptation of an action that might be

relevant to one sector but harmful to another Building dikes, for example, will reduce flooding

but might affect fishery or agriculture Involvement also creates a shared responsibility among

stakeholders from the planning process to implementation and monitoring Civil societies might

play a central role in the implementation of the adaptation measures, while local universities and

research centers monitor climate vulnerabilities or take other responsibilities (McCarney, Blanco,

& Colley, 2011)

1.2.2 Relationship between vulnerability and adaptation in planning practices

Vulnerability and adaptation are two connected components of climate change adaptation

planning Vulnerability intrinsically relates to adaptation since the existence of a specific

vulnerability leads to the need for adaptation Their linkage takes the form of a problem-solution

relationship Once the problems are well recognized, proper solutions can be formulated A

vulnerability assessment will provide information on the local effects of climate change and

assess vulnerable people, places, and sectors (Dodman, 2012; Turner et al., 2003) It addresses

the question of who and what is vulnerable and how the vulnerability has occurred It helps to

identify vulnerable people, places, and sectors and understand the causes of these vulnerabilities,

which lead to the formulation of climate actions and policies

Vulnerability, however, can be interpreted in different ways that frame adaptation

responses differently Corresponding to the theoretical development of the vulnerability concept,

whether vulnerability is framed as an end-point, a dose-response relationship between external

hazards and their adverse impacts, or as a starting point, the resource availability and people’s

entitlement on these resources will influence adaptation responses (Kelly & Adger, 2000;

O'Brien, Eriksen, Nygaard, & Schjolden, 2007; Wisner et al., 2004) The end-point

interpretation, corresponding to the risk-hazard approach, takes the net impacts of climate

change as the main problem This approach is likely to select climate change mitigation,

technical adaptation, and compensation as the primary solutions (McCarthy, Canziani, Leary,

Dokken, & White, 2001; O'Brien et al., 2007) The starting-point interpretation, corresponding to

the social constructivist framework, takes social vulnerability as the primary concern This

approach is likely to focus on social adaptation, sustainable development, and inequity reduction

as the leading solutions (Adger, 1999; O'Brien et al., 2007) The integrated vulnerability

assessment, which analyzes vulnerability from the three perspectives of biophysical exposure,

socio-economic sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system, will need a diverse range of

adaptation responses (Füssel & Klein, 2006)

In current practice, cities can apply various conceptual frameworks in adaptation

planning The conventional approach, the hazard-based model or risk-hazard approach, relies on

downscaled climate modeling to estimate the impacts and vulnerability to climate change, then

propose recommendations to respond to this projected condition Another model is the

vulnerability-based model, which is applied prominently by cities that receive funding from the

UN-Habitat under the Cities and Climate Change Initiatives programs and elsewhere (Ingram et

al., 2014) This model, according to the integrated vulnerability assessment, analyzes

vulnerability based on the framework of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity The urban

climate resilience framework applies the concepts of resilience, in which the urban system

consists of three main components: systems (infrastructure and ecosystem), agents (individuals,

households, public and private sector organizations), and institutions (the social rules, rights, and

entitlement to access systems, decision-making processes, information flow, and the application

of new knowledge) Vulnerability in this model is assessed by climate exposure to these three

main urban components for the identification of actions for resilience building (Moench, Tyler,

& Lage, 2011; Tyler & Moench, 2012)

1.2.3 Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience in adaptation planning

The practice of climate change adaptation planning is guided by the theories of

vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience These frameworks, originating from different sciences,

have coevolved and intertwined for the ultimate goal of sustainable development under the

impacts of climate change There is fuzziness in delineating the relationship between these

notions In the early stages of evolution, the distinction between vulnerability and adaptation is

ambiguous Both frameworks are mostly the same in emphasizing the physical impact of climate

change, then accounting for current climate risks and socio-economic conditions This shows a

borrowing of concepts between these two theories In the later stage, adaptation and vulnerability

are distinguishable Vulnerability appears as a static concept to represent the cross-sectional

status of interaction between the hazard exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacities of

people, places, and systems; it is still a dynamic notion driven by the dynamics of climate change

and the feedback of society after implementing adaptation options Meanwhile, adaptation

consists of both adaptive capacity and adaptation actions Adaptive capacity, included as a part

of vulnerability, will determine the level of vulnerability leading to the delineation of the scope

of actions and will potentially foster or hinder future capacity to adapt (Pelling, 2011)

The distinction between adaptation and resilience is even more complicated It appears

that resilience can be used interchangeably with adaptive capacity since both refer to the

system’s capacity in responding to a hazardous event, trend or disturbance However, when

referring back the definitions of these terms compiled by the IPCC in 2007 and 2014, there is a

substantial difference between these terms Adaptive capacity, as well as adaptation, merely

claim the goals to “moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007,

2014b) Meanwhile, resilience specifies the ability to reorganize social, economic, and

environmental systems in ways that “maintain their essential function, identity, and structure,

while also maintaining the capacity for adaption, learning, and transformation” (IPCC, 2014b)

These definitions have specified adaptation as a process of adjustment while resilience is a system’s state In short, vulnerability is considered the driver for triggering the adaptation

process while resilience is a desirable goal Multiple adaptation pathways lead to relative

resilience or equilibrium stages, including functional persistence (or engineering resilience),

transition, and transformation (Figure 1.3)

Figure 1.3 Theoretical framework of adaptation planning: linking vulnerability, adaptation,

and resilience

Source: Adapted from Holling (1996), IPCC (2007), and Pelling (2011)

Additionally, climate change adaptation planning is influenced by many other factors

relating to the planning approach and method The participatory approach promotes the

involvement of stakeholders in the planning process The community-based approach looks more

specifically to empower marginalized and vulnerable people and uses local knowledge as an

essential source besides the scientific data The mainstreaming process places climate change

among other development goals and issues Moreover, the method of spatial vulnerability

assessment, which is used to map vulnerability based on selected indicators, has better support

for the identification of vulnerable people and places, which in turn facilitates the allocation of

adaptation resources

Due to the overlaps and interaction between the three notions of vulnerability, adaptation,

and resilience, this study will use the generic term of vulnerability assessment to indicate the

process of resilience assessment, which is to examine the types and impacts of shocks and

stresses Also, the term adaptation planning will be used to refer to the process of formulating

adaptation options as well as a resilience strategy

Given the complexity of the multiple theories and factors affecting climate change

adaptation, climate change adaptation planning is a challenge for many cities’ governments in

developing countries Therefore, they tend to rely on external resources when conducting their

climate action plans Many coastal cities in developing countries have conducted their climate

adaptation plans, but the majority of studies focus on single cases and a particular aspect of the

adaptation process We have a modest knowledge of the state of the art of climate change

adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries Moreover, we know little about how these

theories are applied and aligned in planning practice in the context of climate change This

dissertation study seeks to fill the gap between theory and practice to ease the process of local

climate adaptation planning

1.3 Studies of municipal adaptation planning

With the increasing importance of climate change adaptation, many local municipalities

have conducted adaptation plans Studies of municipal adaptation plans are increasingly

necessary to offer interactive lessons to improve climate action planning progress In developed

countries, researchers started tracking municipal adaptation planning in the early 2010s, when

local governments were found to have two primary weaknesses: (1) high awareness but limited

preparedness for adaptation (Morsch, 2010; Tang et al., 2010) and (2) lack of consideration for

non-climatic factors (Preston, Westaway, & Yuen, 2011) Although highly aware of climate

change, local governments have limited capacity in adaptation planning, especially the

implementation of adaptation measures (Baker et al., 2012; Baynham & Stevens, 2014;

Woodruff & Stults, 2016) Hamin, Gurran, and Emlinger (2014) have identified the main barriers

to climate adaptation in small cities and towns, including the conflict between values and beliefs,

lack of resources, local and state leadership, as well as information Other scholars have studied

the observed or ongoing climate adaptation actions and policies (Araos et al., 2016; Bierbaum et

al., 2013; Ford, Berrang-Ford, & Paterson, 2011) Some specific issues have been explored, such

as the presence of climate action responses that take place inside and outside of municipal

climate reporting framework (Robinson & Gore, 2015) and the consideration of climate

projection uncertainty in local climate adaptation plans (Woodruff, 2016)

In developing countries, although the development of local climate adaptation plans

started relatively early, tracking of these planning practices is still scarce The municipal

adaptation plan for Cape Town (South Africa) was developed in 2006 (Mukheibir & Ziervogel,

2007), followed by other cities, such as Durban’s adaptation strategy (Roberts, 2008) Increasing

numbers of cities in developing countries receive international support to develop their

vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning, such as the Cities and Climate Change

Initiatives launched by UN-Habitat in 2009, the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience

Network (ACCCRN), and the Sub-Saharan African Cities program (Dodman, 2012; Tyler &

Moench, 2012) Reflective studies between theory and practice mainly focus on single cases,

such as Sorsogon, Philippines (Button et al., 2013), Semarang, Indonesia (Wijaya, 2015), and

Maputo, Mozambique (Broto et al., 2015) Some offer a comparison but focus primarily on one

country, one region, or the application of one theoretical framework (Sharma et al., 2013;

Sharma, Singh, & Singh, 2014; Tanner et al., 2009) Nonetheless, there is no study of municipal

adaptation plans in multiple cities across developing countries

1.4 Study region: coastal cities in developing countries

Developing countries are believed to be significantly vulnerable to the impacts of climate

change due to the dependence of their livelihoods on climate-sensitive sectors, infrastructure

deficits such as housing, public service, and transportation networks, and limited adaptive

capacity The escalating intensity and frequency of disasters have made developing countries

highly susceptible to natural hazards Based on the Global Climate Risk Index (Germanwatch

2017), low income and low-middle income developing countries were the most affected

countries2 in the period 1996 to 2015 regarding fatalities and economic losses caused by past

extreme weather events (Kreft, Eckstein, & Melchior, 2016)

Coastal cities in developing countries are increasingly impacted by the adverse impacts of

climate change Coastal and low-lying areas are frequently affected by many coastal hazards

such as flooding, storm surges, saltwater intrusion, and marine pollution (Finkl, 2012) Climate

change scenarios additionally project significant submergence, flooding inundation, and erosion

in these regions due to rising sea level (IPCC, 2014b) In Africa, South and Southeast Asia, with

many concentrated low-lying populated deltas, cities are among the areas most vulnerable to

flooding (Nicholls, Hoozemans, & Marchand, 1999) The warming trends and increasing

temperatures will also cause significant challenges, such as water scarcity, food production, and

food security, especially in many regions across Asia and Africa (Hijioka et al., 2014; Niang et

2 The ten most affected countries by natural hazards (1996 – 2015): Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti, Nicaragua,

Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Guatemala, and Thailand Source: Global Climate Risk Index 2017,

retrieved from https://germanwatch.org/de/download/16411.pdf

al., 2014) Increasing urbanization has added to the vulnerability of coastal cities in developing

countries, which are the hubs of diversified socio-economic activities with dense populations and

both horizontal and vertical expansion (Surjan et al., 2016) Particularly, coastal cities in Asia are

experiencing multiple stresses caused by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic

development exacerbated by climate change These stresses also exist in other parts of the world

Sea level rise and climate change pose a significant threat to the marine ecosystem and human

health as well as food security in coastal Central and South American regions (Magrin et al.,

2014)

Numerous studies propose “best practices” for adaptation planning in coastal systems and

low-lying areas (Wong et al., 2014); however, few studies examine coastal cities’ adaptation

plans Fu, Gomaa, Deng, and Peng (2017) explore the integration of SLR adaptation in local

major planning mechanisms, but this work fails to examine other risks or vulnerabilities and the

content of adaptation options to respond Given the potentially increasing impacts of climate

change and the significant concentration of populations in coastal cities of developing countries,

there is an urgent need for a study of municipal adaptation plans focusing on this local context

This study takes coastal cities of developing countries as the primary focus to have a better

homogenous comparison regarding coastal hazards and socio-economic issues even though

heterogeneity is unavoidable due to the differences in local context and geographical regions

1.5 Organization, questions, and hypotheses

While there are numerous studies on climate change action plans in developed countries,

relatively few have focused on developing countries Given the impacts of climate hazards in

coastal cities, this study will concentrate on the climate adaptation plan of coastal cities in

developing countries The dissertation aims to fill three essential gaps in adaptation tracking

studies First, the study seeks to unpack the state-of-the-art of adaptation planning practices in

coastal cities of developing countries by characterizing the types of vulnerabilities and planned

adaptation options There are some studies tracking adaptation status in the global South These

studies, however, are at the country level (Ford et al., 2015; Mertz, Halsnæs, Olesen, &

Rasmussen, 2009) Also, with the complex impacts of climate change coupled with non-climatic

factors, studies on multiple coastal cities of developing countries are crucial to understanding

better their vulnerabilities and how they plan to adapt and to assist decision-makers as well as the

allocation of resources

Second, while the relationship between vulnerability and adaptation is crucial since it

forms the essential part of an adaptation plan, few studies reflect how vulnerability identification

informs adaptation planning, with the exception of the work of Taylor and Lassa (2015), but this

work compares two approaches of vulnerability assessment in Indonesian cases A body of

literature seeks to improve vulnerability assessment with an assumption that better understanding

of vulnerability will contribute to effective identification of adaptation options (Dodman, 2012;

Ingram et al., 2014; Kumar, Geneletti, & Nagendra, 2016) However, we have a modest

knowledge of the relationship between the outcomes of vulnerability assessment and adaptation

planning The second part of this dissertation seeks to examine the relationship between

vulnerability and adaptation responses Notably, the study tests two hypotheses: (1) a higher

recognition of vulnerability will lead to a greater extent of adaptation response and; (2) specific

types of vulnerability will relate significantly to specific types of adaptation responses

Third, although several studies argue the critical role of theoretical framing in planning

outcomes, few studies examine this role empirically except for the work of Koski and Siulagi

(2016) This work, however, focuses on the U.S municipal climate action plans and the

interpretation of climate change as a hazard or environmental harm The third part of this

dissertation examines the influence of the theoretical framework that guides the planning process

on the planning outcome Particularly, the study tests the hypothesis that different theoretical

framework will frame the issue of vulnerability differently, thereby, will influence significantly

on the formulation of planned adaptation options

The dissertation is organized into three papers with the primary questions and hypotheses

as outlined below

Chapter 2 (Paper 1): Climate change adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries: Characterizing types of vulnerability and adaptation options

Q1.1 What are the types of risk and vulnerabilities in coastal cities in developing countries?

Q1.2 What are the adaptation options and strategies formulated to respond to these

vulnerabilities?

Q1.3 What is the status of adaptation planning in coastal cities of developing countries?

Chapter 3 (Paper 2): Exploring vulnerability and adaptation response relationships in the context of coastal cities in developing countries

Q2.1 How does the recognition of vulnerability affect the extent of the adaptation response?

H2.1 A city with higher reported level of vulnerability is likely to formulate a higher number of

adaptation options

Q2.2 How do the types of vulnerability relate to adaptation typologies?

H2.2 There is a significant relationship between specific types of vulnerability and adaptation

typologies, such that higher exposure is likely to formulate a higher extent of structural

adaptation response

Chapter 4 (Paper 3): Theoretical frameworks in climate change adaptation planning: A comparative study in coastal cities of developing countries

Q3.1 How does the theoretical framework affect the formulation of adaptation options?

H3.1 Theoretical frameworks significantly impact the formulation of adaptation options, in

which documents with the hazard-based approach might generate a higher number of structural

adaptation actions and climate change adaptation measures, while the vulnerability-based and

urban resilience framework might generate more social, institutional, and baseline adaptation

measures

CHAPTER TWO:

Climate change adaptation in coastal cities of developing countries:

Characterizing types of vulnerability and adaptation options

Abstract

Facing the increasingly adverse impacts of climate change, many coastal cities in developing and

least-developed countries have shaped their climate adaptation plan This study aims to unpack

the state-of-the-art municipal adaptation planning in developing countries The paper seeks to

understand the types of vulnerability and explore planned adaptation options through a content

analysis of adaptation planning documents in 45 selected coastal cities in developing countries

The result shows the complexity of vulnerabilities that are not only climate change impacts, but

more importantly, the socio-economic sensitivity, the insufficient infrastructure system, and

limited adaptive capacity Adaptation responses, correspondingly, address primarily current

vulnerabilities rather than future climate change impacts Local climate change adaptation in

developing countries, therefore, cannot separate from socio-economic development and capacity

enhancement A coordination mechanism for inter-policy is necessary to manage the trade-offs

between multiple priorities

Keywords climate change adaptation, coastal cities, developing countries, vulnerabilities,

adaptation options

2.1 Introduction

Since climate change is likely unavoidable even with proactive practices in emission

reduction, adaptation has become increasingly important Although governments have

committed to limiting global warming to 1.5oC, the potential impacts of and the risks associated

with climate change are still very high (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018) Local communities, the

first responders, will need adaptation actions to alleviate these impacts and risks

In responding to this global climate issue, many local municipalities have conducted

adaptation planning to assess current and future vulnerabilities, potential climate change impacts,

and identify actions to adapt to variability in the future Tracking the practices of climate change

adaptation (CCA) planning is necessary to offer interactive lessons between theory and practices

These studies, as reported in the literature, are primarily focused on developed countries, for

instance (Baker et al., 2012; Baynham & Stevens, 2014; Tang et al., 2010; Woodruff & Stults,

2016), but few on developing and least-developed countries The development of local climate

adaptation planning in developing countries was initiated relatively early with the city of Cape

Town in 2006 (Mukheibir & Ziervogel, 2007), the locally-rooted adaptation strategy in Durban,

South Africa (Roberts, 2008), and become more prevalent given the international cooperation

and assistance to the least-developed and developing countries (Dodman, 2012; Tyler &

Moench, 2012) Studies of local climate adaptation plans, however, mainly focus on single cases,

such as (Broto et al., 2015; Button et al., 2013; Wijaya, 2015) Some offer an analytic

comparison, for instance, urban governance for adaptation in ten Asian cities (Tanner et al.,

2009), and the methodology of urban climate resilience planning in Indian cities (Sharma et al.,

2013) Nonetheless, there is no study of municipal adaptation plans across multiple cities across

developing countries