IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN VIET NAM AND RECOMMENDATIONS

LIST OF FIGURESFigure 1: Vietnam annual GDP growth % from 1985 - 2020...12 Figure 2 Trends of temperature a and rainfalls b in Vietnam from 1958 - 20113 Figure 3: Typhoon tracks in the N

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

-*** -MID-TERM REPORTCourse: DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Instructor: Nguyen Thi Hai Yen (M.A)

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN

VIET NAM AND RECOMMENDATIONS

GROUP 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I Introduction 5

1 Research rationale 5

2 Research objective 5

3 Research subject and scope 6

4 Methodology 6

II Theoretical overview about Impact of climate change on agriculture 7

1 Climate change 7

2 Agriculture 7

2.1 Definition of Agriculture 7

2.2 Characteristics of Agriculture 8

2.3 The role of agriculture in economic development in developing country 9 3 Impact of climate change on agriculture 10

III Discussion about the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam 11

1 Overview about agriculture and climate change in Vietnam 11

1.1 Vietnam agriculture 11

1.2 Climate change manifestation in Vietnam 13

2 Impacts of climate change on VN agriculture 16

2.1 Impact of increase in average temperature 16

2.2 Impact of increase in sea level 17

2.3 Impact of drought and saltwater intrusion 18

2.4 Impact of storms and floods 19

3 Possible impacts of climate change on Vietnam agriculture in the future 20

3.1 Impact of temperature change 20

3.2 Impact on the crop water supply and demand 21

3.3 Impact of sea-level rise 22

3.4 Impact on crop output 23

3.5 Impacts on economic growth 24

4 Some actions taken in Vietnam 24

4.1 Adapting the climate change by nature-based solution 24

4.2 Developing and selecting climate-adapted varieties 25

4.3 Restructuring agriculture in some regions 26

4.4 Controlling the source of water in the dry season 26

IV Recommendation 27

1 Foster agriculture's adaptability 27

2 Restructure agriculture to help combat climate change 29

3 Policy and management recommendation 30

V Conclusion 32

VI References 33

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Vietnam annual GDP growth (%) from 1985 - 2020 12 Figure 2 Trends of temperature (a) and rainfalls (b) in Vietnam from 1958 - 20113 Figure 3: Typhoon tracks in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and East Sea 15

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Average annual temperature increases in degrees by agro ecological zone

in different scenarios 20 Table 2: Average percentage changes in annual precipitation by agro ecological

zones in different scenatios 21 Table 3: Loss of rice area and production in 2050 due to flood inundation and

salinity intrusion caused by rising sea levels in the Mekong River Delta and lower

Dongnai River basin 22 Table 4: Forecasting the impact of 1m sea level rise in Vietnam 23

in scale.

Farming throughout the globe has its own specifics that depend on weather conditions,with the climate change’s impact on agriculture being tremendous It is pointed out thatagriculture is sensitive to short-term changes in weather and to seasonal, annual and longerterm variations in climate The relationship between climate change and agriculture is aparticularly important issue, because The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) hasestimated that the global demand for food will rise by approximately 70 percent over thenext 40 years to feed a rising world population with changing dietary trends

In fact, developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change because of theirgeographic exposure, low incomes and greater reliance on climate sensitive factors,particularly agriculture And Vietnam is a typical example However, there still remainsquestions about its impact on agriculture in Vietnam and what we should do to adapt to thisproblem Understanding the gravity of climate change as well as the importance of

agriculture in Vietnam’s economy, we have been motivated to carry out the research “THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN VIETNAM”.

Despite the urge for intensive research on how changes in weather patterns influenceagriculture, there is still a shortage in researches that show clear and detailed guidance forfarmers and agricultural businesses to respond to this issue This calls for intensive research

and investment or policy assistance from the government to make clearer guidance forindividuals and businesses in upcoming years.

As a result, we are going to investigate the actual situation and manifestations of climatechange, how these changes influence crop production and livestock raising in particular,and thereby agricultural growth in general Besides, this finding will put forward somenational policies, smart technologies and mechanisms that farmers and agricultural firmscan apply to adapt to climate change

This paper investigates the actual situation and characteristics of agriculture in Vietnam,how the weather patterns have changed since the 2000s and also tended to change in thenext 30 years in terms of several manifestations like temperature, rainfall, sea level, salinityintrusion, The subjects of this study are “climate change” and “agriculture” in

Vietnam, especially going into details about crop production and animal production

In terms of methodology, this paper uses a qualitative approach by collecting informationbased on researches that were carried out in the previous years; along with datas, reports andpredictions of large organizations This approach aims to identify the trends in changes ofdifferent weather patterns, evaluate its economic impacts on both crop and animal productionduring the period from 2014 until now; and thereby, forecast the influence degree toagricultural output and revenue under climate change scenarios in the next 30 years It is alsoexpected that findings from this paper will make a contribution to practical

adaptation initiatives, the governments’ management and policies for Vietnam in the context of climate change these days

II Theoretical overview about Impact of climate change on agriculture

Climate change is becoming a present reality and is one of the major challenges of ourtime In fact, many researchers were carried out to analyze the concept of climate changeand its impacts on different fields in different countries all over the world According to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change isdefined as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activitythat alters the composition of the global atmosphere

Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or topersistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use(IPCC, 2001) The main characteristics of climate change are increases in average globaltemperature (global warming); changes in cloud cover and precipitation particularly overland; melting of ice caps, glaciers and reduced snow cover; or increases in oceantemperatures and ocean acidity

As climate change worsens, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent orsevere If there are no timely actions, it is likely that the effect of climate change willexceed the adaptability of some countries

2.1 Definition of Agriculture

The Oxford English Dictionary (1971) defines agriculture very broadly as “The scienceand art of cultivating the soil, including the allied pursuits of gathering in the crops and

rearing livestock; tillage, husbandry, farming.”

In Vietnam, agriculture is intensive rice and crops growing agriculture, now divided intomany production sectors Since the August Revolution, Vietnam’s agriculture has madeimportant progress: agricultural production has become rich and diversified, fertilizers andpesticides are relatively adequate Production and productivity of crops and livestock bothincreased markedly

2.2 Characteristics of Agriculture

Land is the main means of production and can not be replaced.

This is the most important characteristic to distinguish agriculture and industry Thescale and direction of production, the degree of intensification, and even the organization

of the territory, are highly dependent on the land This feature requires agriculturalproduction to maintain the quality of soil and to use it rationally and economically

Agricultural production focuses on crops and livestock

Objects of agricultural production are living organisms They grow according to the law

of biology and are greatly influenced by nature Thus, understanding and followingbiological and natural laws is an essential requirement in the agricultural process

Agricultural production is seasonal

This is a typical characteristic of agricultural production, especially in cultivation Thegrowth and development time of plants and animals is relatively long, different, andthrough a series of successive stages

Agricultural production depends on natural conditions

This feature is due to the subjects of agriculture: plants and livestock Plants andlivestock can only survive and grow when there are five basic elements of nature:temperature, water, light, air, and nutrition These factors are closely combined with eachother, working together in a unified and irreplaceable way

In the modern economy, agriculture has become a commodity production industry

A specific manifestation of this trend is the formation and development of specializedagricultural regions and the promotion of agricultural product processing to improvecommercial value

2.3 The role of agriculture in economic development in developing country

Agriculture plays a vital role in the economic development of developing countries Therole of agriculture in economic development is crucial because a majority of the population

of developing countries make their living from agriculture

Product Contribution

Most of the developing countries depend on their own agriculture to provide food andmeet the basic needs of their population Farmers in these developing countries have toproduce food over and above their subsistence needs so as to provide necessary food totheir urban population As the industrial and services sectors develop further, theagricultural productivity and production must also rise to sustain the industrialdevelopment by feeding the increasing industrial workforce

Market Contribution

The market contribution of agriculture means the demand for industrial products Theincrease in agricultural productivity causes an increase in the home market formanufactured goods and services, thereby speeding up the economic growth rate

Factor Contribution

Another contribution of agriculture to economic development is that it provides twoimportant factors - labour and capital - for industrial growth The size of the agriculturalsector in developing countries is quite large as around 60 per cent of the population andtherefore it can release a significant amount of labour to be employed in the industrial andother non-farm sectors However, agriculture can release labour for industrial development

if its productivity rises

Foreign Exchange Contribution

The exports of agricultural products can also be a source of foreign exchange earnings

By contributing to foreign exchange earnings, it enables the developing countries to haveaccess to imported goods needed for industrial growth which cannot be produced

at home or can be produced at a higher opportunity cost Thus agriculture can make asignificant contribution to economic development by earning foreign exchange required forimporting industrial raw materials and capital goods required for expanding industries.

Agriculture and Poverty Alleviation

In any strategy of eradication of poverty, agricultural growth plays an important role.Agricultural growth raises the productivity and incomes of small and marginal farmers, andraises employment and wages of agricultural workers With this, it helps to reduce povertyand disguised unemployment Besides, increase in agricultural productivity leads to lowerfood prices and keeps inflation under control which also contributes to lowering of poverty

3 Impact of climate change on agriculture.

Agricultural production will be affected by increasing temperatures, changing rainfallpatterns, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events Some countries willexperience more negative effects on agriculture associated with climate change Thesituation will be particularly acute in developing countries that do not have enoughresources compared to developed countries to quickly adapt to climate change

The relationship between agriculture and climate is pronounced, often complex, and notalways well understood Temperature increases can have both positive and negative effects

on crop yields, with the difference depending on location and on the magnitude of theincrease

Agricultural systems are most sensitive to extreme weather events such as floods, windstorms, and droughts, and seasonal variability such as periods of frost, cold temperatures,and changing rainfall patterns Climate change could alter the frequency and magnitude ofextreme events and could change seasonal patterns in both favorable and unfavorable ways,depending on regional conditions Increases in rainfall intensity pose a threat to agricultureand the environment because heavy rainfall is primarily responsible for soil erosion,leaching of agricultural chemicals, and run-off that carries livestock waste and nutrientsinto water bodies Currently available climate forecasts cannot resolve how extreme eventsand variability will change because the rate of change is always uncertain

Climate change can also have a number of negative indirect effects on environmental systems that have been largely ignored in climate change assessments.These indirect effects include changes in the incidence and distribution of pests andpathogens, increased rates of soil erosion and degradation, and increased troposphericozone levels from rising temperatures Regional shifts in crop production and expansion ofirrigated acreage may stress environmental and natural resources, including water quantityand quality, wetlands, soil, fish, and wildlife.

agro-However, agricultural systems can be managed Farmers have a number of adaptationoptions open to them, such as changing planting and harvest dates, rotating crops, selectingcrops and crop varieties for cultivation, consuming water for irrigation, using fertilizers,and choosing tillage practices These adaptation strategies can lessen potential yield lossesfrom climate change and improve yields in regions where climate change has beneficialeffects

III Discussion about the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam

1 Overview about agriculture and climate change in Vietnam

Since the economic and political reforms in 1986, Vietnam's economy has been growing

at an exceptional rate, averaging 6 percent annually Between 2002 and 2018, GDP percapita increased by 2.7 times, and more than 45 million people were lifted out of poverty(World Bank, 2021) Under “Doi Moi”, Vietnam has risen to the lower-middle incomecategory and become a leading agriculture exporter from one of the world’s poorest nations

(World Bank, 2013) Such miracle economic growth is difficult to achieve without the

contributions of the primary sector

Figure 1: Vietnam annual GDP growth (%) from 1985 - 2020

Source: World BankThe agrarian system in Vietnam, as well as other developing countries in East Asia, is

characterized with the problem of fragmentation and subdivision of Peasant

Land According to the World Bank, 39.4% of Vietnam’s land area is dedicated toagricultural production Vietnam agriculture is highly labor-intensive, much of this sector isdriven by manual processes, which are low efficiency compared with machineryapplication

Although the agricultural share of Vietnam’s GDP has been decreasingthroughout the year, from 38% in 1986 to 14.8% in 2020, it is still one of the mostimportant sectors The health of agriculture affects the welfare of 37.2% of the labor forcesand their families, of which 89% are small family farmers (FAO, 2018)

Among four sub-sectors of agriculture, cultivation is the main contributor to the growth

of Vietnamese agriculture (Britcham, 2021) The staple crops in Vietnam are rice, cassava,corn, and sweet potatoes Of which, rice – the main food consumption in Vietnam –

accounts for 94% of land under intensive cultivation (Britcham, 2021) The Mekong delta

is the main rice-producing region in Vietnam, accounting for 90 percent of Vietnam’sexported rice every year Most crop production is dominated by small farm households,whereas most of the expansion of livestock production is occurring in medium and large-size farms (World bank, 2016)

The livestock sector in Vietnam is undergoing a structural change involving a movetoward intensive systems and larger production scales (Dinh, 2017) According to thestatistical handbook of Vietnam 2015, livestock accounted for 28% of agriculture grossvalue added The most common livestock species are pigs, buffalo, cattle, chickens,waterfowl, goats, horses, of which pig dominantly accounts for 72.6 percent of meatproduction, and is followed by poultry with 18 percent (Dinh, 2017)

1.2 Climate change manifestation in Vietnam

In recent years, Vietnam has been ranked among the top countries likely to be mostaffected by climate change in terms of environment This part will explore severalobserved changes in Vietnam climate including temperature rise, an increase in sea level,weather extremes such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, heatwaves etc

Figure 2 Trends of temperature (a) and rainfalls (b) in Vietnam from 1958 - 201

Source: FAO, 2011

The rise in temperature

Vietnamese scientists estimated that the annual average temperature in Vietnam hasrisen about 0.62oC for the last 50 years (1958 - 2007), which is about 0.1oC every decade(Figure 2a) while the global increase each decade is 0.12 (IPCC 2013) and predict acontinuous uptrend in the future (Nguyen, et al, 2010) Furthermore, the minimum andmaximum temperature also increased, in which the minimum rose faster than the maximumlevel (Schmidt-Thome, et al., 2014) Overall, the data shows that the changes in averagetemperature in Vietnam are consistent with global warming that is happening in many otherparts of the world

The changes in rainfall

In the time span from 1958 to 2014, the average precipitation increased mildly eachyear, especially in summer and winter (IMHEN and UNDP, 2015) In particular, rainfall isreported to decline in the North area but rise significantly in the southern and centralregions of Vietnam In addition, the data shows that there were different changes in therainfall pattern of different regions of Vietnam (Nguyen, et al, 2010) In some places in thenorth, the rain season starts later, whereas the rain season in the southern part seems to startsooner or end later (Figure 2b)

Increase in sea level

Virtually all observation stations reported the rise in sea level at the average rate ofabout 2.45 mm per year, which means that Vietnam’s sea level increased 15 - 20 cm inthe last 50 years The mean seal level observations suggest that the rise is strongest in theCentral and South-west coastal areas (Nguyen, et al, 2010)

Saltwater intrusion

The risk of saltwater intrusion is increasing, especially in the Mekong Delta Saline water ispenetrating deeper into the land of downstream areas of the Red River, Thai Binh, and DongNai river, and Mekong river basin Due to the rise of sea level, the inland penetration

depth is projected to increase significantly at the end of the 21th century (IMHEN andUNDP, 2015).

Floods

Records of most rivers in North and in North Central Vietnam in the last three decadespresent an increase in the number of flood peaks Records from rivers in the Central regionand South East show a similar upward trend in the number of flood peaks The water level

in the Mekong River in the last 30 years also suggests a rise in the flood height which isassociated with climate change Some other places recorded a decline in flood peaks which

is explained by the building of new reservoirs and dams (IMHEN and UNDP, 2015)

as well as the number of droughts In contrast, the hot days are decreasing and more heavyrainfalls occur in the other parts of the country Generally, the climate is becoming warmer,more extreme, and more unpredictable, which is seemingly consistent with the globalclimate changes.

2 Impacts of climate change on VN agriculture

2.1 Impact of increase in average temperature

Crop Production:

Rising temperature will influence food production, reducing productivity by directeffects on the crop growth process The IPCC's assessment report on the impact of climatechange on food crops shows that in tropical regions, an increase in average temperatureswill adversely affect productivity through pollination periods (10oC for wheat and maize,20oC for rice) Extremely high temperatures above 30°C can do permanent physicaldamage to plants and, when exceeding 37°C, they can even damage seeds during storage(FAO, 2020) The type of damage depends on the temperature, its persistence, and therapidity of its increase or plants’ capacity to adjust (Wahid et al., 2007) It alsodepends on the species, the stage of plant development

Climate change reverses the structure of crops: increased temperature changes thedevelopment period of crops and the flowering time, thereby reducing the ability to croprotation and increase crops, especially winter crops and subtropical plants such as peachplums, apricots, etc As the climate changes, the frequency of periods when temperaturesrise above critical thresholds for maize, rice, and wheat is predicted to increase (Gourdji etal., 2013)

High temperature leads to drought and a shortage of water for crops If the temperaturerises to 10oC, the demand for watering crops will increase by 10% overwhelming thewatering capability of the current irrigation structure (IPCC, 2007)

The increased temperature could increase pest insect populations: Researches have

shown that increased temperatures can potentially affect insect survival, development,geographic range, and population size Temperature can impact insect physiology and

development directly or indirectly through the physiology or existence of hosts Depending

on the development “strategy” of an insect species, the temperature can exert differenteffects (Bale et al., 2002) The temperature may change gender ratios of some pest speciessuch as thrips (Lewis, 1997) potentially affecting reproduction rates

The increased temperature could decrease pest insect populations: Some insects are

closely tied to a specific set of host crops Temperature increases that cause farmers not togrow the host crop any longer would decrease the populations of insect pests specific tothose crops The same environmental factors that impact pest insects can impact theirinsect predators and parasites as well as the disease organisms that infect the pests,resulting in increased attacks on insect populations

Animal Production:

Rising temperature in summer leads to a significant increase in water requirements forlivestock Meanwhile, the water supply is not fully sufficient Climate change can reducelivestock growth and production through the deterioration of animal feed quality and theliving environment In Vietnam, climate change accompanied by the El Nino phenomenonhas decreased rainfall by 20-25% in the southern part of the Central Highlands, causingwidespread and prolonged drought

High temperature also makes animals anorexic, reducing milk and egg production If thetemperature is lower than 5°C or higher than 21°C, milk production decreases slowly; ifthe temperature is higher than 27°C, milk production is significantly reduced When thetemperature is high, cows tend to reduce their activity to limit heat production, reducingtheir need for food and drinking more water

2.2 Impact of increase in sea level

Crop Production:

As the sea level rises, the sown area reduces, and the arable land is adversely affected bysalinization, which will cause a shortage of cultivated land, threatening food security InVietnam, according to the forecast of IPCC (2007), if the sea level rises by 1m, it can

adversely affect 12% of the area and 10% of the population, causing floods of 5000km2 inthe Red River Delta, 15,000-20,000 km2 in Mekong Delta This means losing 300,000 -500,000 hectares in the Red River, 1.5-2 million hectares in the Mekong Delta, andhundreds of thousands of hectares in the central coast It is estimated that Vietnam will lose

a lot of agricultural lands affecting adversely on national food security (Tran The Tuong,2011)

Animal Production:

The effect of salinization and alum contamination threatens water supplies for farm

animals in some Southwestern provinces

Sea level rise will diminish much of land used for livestock of coastal farms, causing a

lack of arable land dedicated to animal production for raising livestock and poultry

2.3 Impact of drought and saltwater intrusion

Crop Production:

Drought and salinity cause a shortage of freshwater for agriculture, thereby reducing thecultivated area, reducing productivity and output of crops which are mainly food crops.Water shortage and drought adversely affected the area of industrial crops in the CentralHighlands and Southeast part with a total area of 15,823 ha and 28,000 ha, respectively(Bao Han, 2016)

Statistics of the Department of Agricultural Economics showed that by the end of May

2016, damage to rice reached 249,944 ha, crops 18,960 ha, fruit trees 30,522 ha, industrialcrops 149,704 ha It is estimated that drought and saltwater intrusion caused a loss ofabout VND 15,183 billion (Bach Duong, 2016)

Drought causes saltwater intrusion to widely affect the field, making the soil salinized

and unable to use

Animal Production: