Cd the chd rang, trdng 15 nam qua, NAFTA da cd mot thdi gdp p h i n tich ciic vac viec phat trien cac nen kinh te Bae My, phat trien thi trUdng lac ddng, vat tU, nguyen lieu, ban ch[r]
Trang 1NAFTA BEN LE HAI THE KY
Cho de'n nay, khu viic mau dich
tii do Bic My (NAFTA) da tdn
tai va phat trien dUdc 15 nam
(1/1/1995 - 1/1/2009), da mot thdi gdp
phan tich ciic phat trien dn dinh ben
vutng kinh te - xa hoi cua ca khdi tren
cd sd giai quyet td't nhUng nhu cau
rieng cua tiing nUdc thanh vien
Ddi vdi Canada, nhu c i u rieng ay
la de hang hoa, vat tu Mexico khdng
phai di dUdng vdng qua My rdi mdi
den thi trUdng Canada nhU trUdc khi
Mexicd gia nhap NAFTA: Canada cci
quan he thUdng mai tii dd vdi Mexicc
se mang lai ldi ich kinh te - xa hdi lau
dai chd ca hai nUdc Vi sd vdi Canada,
Mexicd da't hep (Dien tich la 1,9725
trieu km'^ so vdi 9,974 trieu km'^ cua
Canada), dan sd' ldn hdn Canada
(khdang 103 trieu ngUdi sd vdi 31,6
trieu ngUdi cua Canada) khi ky thda
thuan gia nhap NAFTA (ngay
1/1/1993), nen Canada hy vpng
Mexico se la ndi vifa tieu thu hang
boa, viia cung ca'p vat tU, nguyen lieu
va lao ddng re tien cho Canada Hdn
nuta, do vi tri dia ly va uy tin chinh
tri cua Mexico d khu viic My Latinh,
nen Canada hy vcng Mexico se la cau
nol giiip Canada thie't lap dUdc quan
he giad thUdng vdi cac nUdc khu viic
nay nhieu hdn nuta, mac du da cd
quan he giao thUdng vdi mdt sd' nUdc
vimg Caribbean Dd la chUa ke
Canada quan he thUdng mai vdi
Mexicc chi cd ldi chd Canada tren cac
dien dan kinh te the gidi vi Mexicc la
thanh vien cua nhieu td chifc qud'c te
Dang Thj Ha
Vien Nghien cdu Chdu My
trong dd cd WTO va IMF La thanh vien cua NAFTA va cua ddi tac an ninh thinh vUdng Bae My (The Security and Prcsperty Partnership
of North America - SPP), Mexico cd the la ddi trong trong cac quan he My
va Canada
Ddi vdi Mexico, nhu ciu ay la vifa nham thu hiit vd'n dau tu cua My va Canada de giai quye't viec lam, nang cao ddi sd'ng cho nhan dan, giam d i n tinh trang lao ddng ndng thdn bd ra thanh thi kiem viec lam hoac vUdt bien bat hdp phap sang My kiem an, gay bat dn chd xa hdi My, va viia cd the diing Canada lam trung gian boa giai nhiing bat ddng trong quan he Mexico va My, chii ye'u do ngUdi Mexicc vUdt bien bat hdp phap sang
My gay nen Sd di dan Mexico bd que hUdng sang My kiem sd'ng ngay cang nhieu chu yeu dc ddi sd'ng ngUdi dan Mexico qua khd khan Vi du, nam
1992 - nam dam phan gia nhap NAFTA - thi khoang 26% ngudi dan khdng cd nUdc sach de sinh boat; 29% lao ddng khdng cd viec lam; 20%) ngUdi dan khdng dUdc trd giiip y te; 400/1000 tre em sd sinh bi chet yeu -cdn d Canada la 7,2/1000 tre, d My la 9,2/1000 tre sd sinh
Nam 1993 - nam ky thoa thuan thanh lap NAFTA - GDP/ngudi cAa Mexico la 9136 USD, cua Canada la 30.163 USD, cdn cua My la 37.348 USD; chenh lech thu nhap giau nghec giuta 10% dan sd' giau nhat va 10% dan sd' nghee nha't ciia Canada la 10
Trang 2lin cua My la 15.7 lan cua ^Mexico la
43,1 l i n (Xem ME.MO - sd 7/2005, cac
trang 85 86, 90 va 91)
Ddi vdi My muc tieu cua My gia
nhap NAFTA khac vdi muc tieu cua
hai nu'dc ndi tren, trUdc het My mudn
bie'n NAFTA thanh hat nhan khdi
kmh te luc dia Tay Ban cau nen khi
ky van ban thanh lap NAFTA, My da
diia ra mdt luan thuyet het sifc md hd
"cac ben cimg cd ldi" ddng thdi nhan
manh khdng thanh lap lien minh kmh
te kieu EU da lam nghia la khdng
mudn NAFTA la hen minh thue quan
hay lien minh tien te Ngay til dau cac
quan he cua khdi kinh te luc dia nay
da mau thuan vdi cac nguyen tac va
chuan miic phap ly cua WTO nhUng
khdng lam My ban tam Cd le vi My cc
nen kinh te ldn nhat tean cau lai
chiem p h i n ldn GDP cua NAFTA, che
nen My cd the chi phdi dUdc mpi boat
ddng cha NAFTA Khi NAFTA ra ddi,
trong tdng GDP cua ca khdi, thi p h i n
GDP ciia My chie'm 88°o, cua Canada
-7°o, cua Mexico - 5"o,
Nhieii thdng tin cho biet, Mexico
dupc ket nap vae NAFTA chii yeu la
nhd cac cudc van ddng hanh lang
(Lobby) ciia cac cdng ty xuyen qud'c
gia Mexico mang lai Do vay sau khi
NAFTA cd hieu lilc (1/1/1994), cac
cdng ty nay ddng vai trd chu ye'u cua
Mexico trong boat ddng cua NAFTA
Trong thdi gian tdn tai va phat trien
cua minh, NAFTA boat dong trong
khudn khd phap dy do ba nu'dc ddng
thuan de ra Nhifng do xuat phat
diem kinh te - xa hdi cua cac nUdc
khdng nhu nhau khi gia nhap
NAFTA, nen kha nang binh d i n g
trong quan he giao thUdng giuta cac
nUdc vdi nhau ciing khac nhau
Do cd nen kinh te ldn nen My cd
kha nang tac ddng manh den nen
kinh te hai nUdc thanh vien cdn lai
Kinh te Canada phu thudc nhieu vao thi trUdng My, nen khimg hdang kinh
te My hien nay anh hudng xa'u den Canada nhieu hdn de'n Mexico Cuoc khimg hdang khdng nhutng anh hUdng xa'u den nen kinh te Canada, ma cdn tac ddng tieu ciic de'n tinh hinh chinh
tri ciia nUdc nky
Bad "NgUdi hudng dan khoa hoc dao Cd Dd'c" so ra t h i n g 12/2008 chd bie't, de cifu nguy cho ba doanh nghiep
d td My dang san xuat kinh doanh d Canada khdng bi sup dd, va de 150 ngan ngUdi Canada lao ddng tnic tie'p
va 400 ngan ngUdi Canada lad ddng gian tiep, phuc vu ba doanh nghiep khdng bi ma't viec lam chinh phu cua Thu tudng Harper da dung 3,29 ty tien thue nhan dan gdp cho ngan sach nha nUdc de cifu giiip ba doanh nghiep nay So' tien dd chie'm 20% tdng sd tien (17,4 ty USD) My cifu trd cac doanh nghiep nay, trong khi dd, cac quy cifu trd xa hdi cua Canada van chUa dUdc cai thien, khien dan chung bat binh vdi viec lam nay cua chinh phu, Dd vay, Ndi cac ciia dng Harper viia dUdc Qud'c hdi tuyen chen, bau ra vad ngay 28/10/208 thi de'n ngay 5/12/2008 da bi nhan dan bd phieu mat "tin nhiem,
Cd the tha'y rang, ba doanh nghiep
d td My hoat dong s i n xua't kinh ddanh d Canada la ba chi nhanh cua
ba dai gia c to ndi tieng My va the gidi, gdm Ford, Chrysler va General Mdtors Ba chi n h a n h nay da gdp phan quan trong vao tdng kim ngach xua't khau binh quan hang nam trUdc ngay khimg hoang kinh te toan cau, chiem khoang 23% tdng kim ngach xuat khau cua Canada, gdp p h i n lam cho cdng nghiep 5 td trd thanh nganh kinh t e l d n thii hai cua Canada
Mexico ciing chiu anh hudng xa'u cua khimg hoang kinh te My, nhUng
Trang 3khdng tai h a i b a n g C a n a d a Sd di nhU
vay, theo cac n h a q u a n sat va b i n h
l u a n k i n h te t h e gidi, chu ye'u la do
trUdc ngay gia n h a p NAFTA, Mexico
da ky dUdc n h i e u hiep d i n h thUdng
mai Sdng phUdng va da phUdng vdi
cac nUdc My L a t i n h , E U va chau A
Nhd dd, Mexicd p h a n t a n va da d a n g
hda dUdc t h i trUdng x u a t n h a p k h a u ,
khdng p h u thuoc n h i e u vao t h i trUdng
My va C a n a d a , giam t h i e u dUdc a n h
hudng x a u cua k h u n g h d a n g thi
trudng tai chinh, k i n h te'My
Vi du, t r o n g thdi gian 1991-2006,
kim ngach xua't k h a u cua Mexicc s a n g
cac k h u vUc ndi t r e n , n h a t la s a n g cac
nUdc My L a t i n h , t a n g d a n va dn dinh,
ndi trdi la s a n g Cdsta Rica - t a n g
409,3%; t r o n g thdi gian 19942006
-sang Chile t a n g 515,3%; t r e n g thdi
gian 1997-2006 - s a n g N i c a r a g u a t a n g
610,5% N a m 1993 - n a m ky thoa
t h u a n gia n h a p NAFTA, Mexico ky
thoa t h u a n , md rdng hdp tac giac
thUdng vdi cac nUdc k h u viic c h a u A
-Thai Binh DUdng NgUdi t a che r i n g ,
viec md rdng n a y cd y n g h i a dac biet
quan trpng ddi vdi Mexico vi day la
vimg da't rdng, ngUdi ddng, t a i nguyen
phdng phii, giiip cho Mexico sau khi
NAFTA cd h i e u liic, k h d n g cdn hi r a n g
budc n h i e u t r o n g q u a n he thUdng mai
ndi bd khdi NAFTA
Tif n a m 2000 de'n nay, hdp tac kinh
te giuta Mexico vdi T r u n g Qud'c, H a n
Qud'c va N h a t B a n ngay mdt n a n g
ddng hdn Ba qud'c gia n a y d a n g d i n
lam bie'n d a n g NAFTA ve m a t giac
thUdng k i n h te Trong tdng kim ngach
ngoai thUdng cua Mexico 2006, thi
p h i n cua ba nUdc n a y chiem 23,7%,
day C a n a d a tuf h a n g thif 2, xud'ng
h a n g thif 5 t r o n g q u a n he budn b a n vdi
cac nUdc c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng
Budc v a c t h e k y XXI, T r u n g Qud'c
coi Mexico nhU dia b a n t r u n g
c h u y e n , dUa h a n g hoa T r u n g Qud'c
q u a day vao t h i t r u d n g NAFTA, trUdc m a t h a n g h o a T r u n g Qud'c d i n
d i n la'n i t , c a n h t r a n h h a n g hoa My
va C a n a d a t r e n t h i t r u d n g Mexcio, rdi cd t h e l a n toa d i n s a n g t h i trUdng My va C a n a d a
Til n a m 2 0 0 1 , N h a t Ban ngay cang
b a n h t r u d n g m a n h s a n g thi trudng Mexicc, FDI cua N h a t vac Mexico
t a n g d i n , hien difng thif hai sau My
P h i n ldn FDI cua N h a t dd vao cac
n g a n h cdng nghiep dien tuf, cdng nghe
ky t h u a t cao va cdng nghiep che tao d
td cua Mexico - mot n g a n h n h a y cam ddi vdi My Til 1/1999 de'n 6/2006, FDI cua N h a t vao Mexico t a n g 77,4% Liia chpn k h u viic c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng lam ddi tac k i n h te, Mexicc da giam d i n p h u thudc n h i e u vac nen
k i n h te My, nhd vay n e n k i n h te Mexico chiu a n h h u d n g tieu ciic cua
k h i m g h o a n g k i n h te My it hdn sd vdi
C a n a d a nhU da ndi t r e n
Q u a n he giae thUdng giiia Mexicc
va C a n a d a t r o n g thdi gian tdn t a i va
p h a t t r i e n cua NAFTA k h d n g cd gi ndi trdi so vdi trUdc k h i NAFTA cd hieu liic, budn b a n h a n g hoa, dich vu qua lai giuta h a i nUdc v a n dien r a
b i n h t h u d n g qua n a m t h i n g NhUng
do gidi d o a n h n g h i e p C a n a d a hoai nghi ve t i n h t r a n g ba't lUc cua chinh quyen Mexico t r o n g viec tra'n ap cac phe p h a i b u d n b a n m a t u y chd'ng ddi
l i n n h a u , gay hdn loan xa hdi, can trd budn b a n , giad lUu h a n g hoa giuta Mexico va h a i nUdc NAFTA cdn lai,
l a m c h i n h p h u cac nUdc n a y p h a i
t h a n t r p n g t r o n g q u a n he giao thUdng vdi Mexicd
Hien nay, d a n Mexicc vUdt bien
t r a i phep s a n g My kiem sd'ng v i n cdn nhieu, gay nao loan t h i trUdng lad ddng, lam ma't t r a t t u xa hdi My, gay phiic t a p t h e m q u a n he My - Mexico,
Trang 4anh hudng xa'u den tie'n do thiic hien
dii an lam dudng cao td'c Mexico
-Canada xuyen qua cac vimg mien
lanh thd My Cac chuyen gia kinh te
My Udc tinh, hien nay cd khoang 22
trieu ngUdi Mexico dang kiem sdng d
My, trong dd, khoang 6 trieu ngUdi
vUdt bien trai phep
Gia nhap NAFTA, My ching nhiing
md rcing dUdc thi trUdng giad lUu
hang hod, ma cdn cd cd hdi tie'p can de
dang thi trudng lac ddng, vat tU, tien
vdn d Mexicd va Canada trong khudn
khd thoa thuan NAFTA, NhUng sau
vu khimg bdngay 11/9/2001, Tea thap
ddi, tru sd td chifc thUdng mai the gidi
d New Ydrk - bieu trUng che sii giau
cd himg manh ciia My - hi sup dc, thi
quan he giad thUdng cua My trcng
NAFTA ciing bi ran nift, mai den nam
2004 mdi d i n d i n ban gan dUdc ran
niit nay, Vi du, nam 2001, doanh so'
budn ban giiia My va Mexicc giam cdn
6 ty USD; giuta Mexico va Canada
-giam cdn 100 trieu USD,
Nguyen nhan la do liic nay phat
sinh Uu tien mdi trong quan he giao
thUdng giiia cac nUdc NAFTA Uu tien
quan trpng hang dau la bid dam an
tdan s i n xua't, lUu khd, luu bai, van
chuyen hang hoa de'n ngUdi tieu dimg
Budc d i u de bao dam sii an toan,
ngay 12/12/2001 My va Canada ky
tuyen cao chung ve an toan trong
boat ddng thifdng mai cua NAFTA
Dai dien Canada ky tuyen cao la Phd
thii tifdng John Manley; dai dien cho
My la Bd trudng An ninh ndi dia
-Tdm Ridge
De nang cao kha nang an toan cho
san xuat va tieu thu hang hoa cua
minh, Mexico dUa ra chUdng trinh "xa
hdi thinh vUdng", chd phep xay diing
cac quy che va nguyen t i c cimg cd'lien
ke't Bic My, bao ve tdi da he thd'ng tai
chinh, nang lUdng, thue quan va vidn
thdng cua nudc minh Nhd vay, doanh so' budn ban giiia Mexico va cac nUdc chau A tang dan Vi du, so vdi nam
2000, nam 2005, doanh sd' budn ban vdi Trung Qud'c - tang 6 lan, vdi Nhat
- tang g i n 2 lan, vdi H i n Qud'c - tang 1,5 lan Cdn vd'n FDI cua My va Canada vao Mexico giam d i n Vi du, ne'u nam 2001 - la 27,478 ty USD, nam 2002 - giam cdn 19,342 ty USD, nam 2003 - cdn 15,345 ty USD Trong khi dd FDI cua cac nUdc chau A, nha't
la cua Nhat vao Mexico ngay mot gia tang, lam hang hoa cua cac doanh nghiep chau A lien doanh san xuat d Mexicc ngay cang nhieu, mau ma kieu dang dep, cha't lUdng khdng thua kem cac mat hang cimg loai cua
My va Canada, gia t h a n h lai thap hdn hang hoa My va Canada vi gia nhan cdng d Mexico re hdn d hai nUdc nay, cho nen cd nhieu kha nang canh
t r a n h vdi cac hang ngoai nhap tren thi trUdng Mexicc, lam rcl Idan thi trudng hang hoa NAFTA
Cd the chd rang, trdng 15 nam qua, NAFTA da cd mot thdi gdp p h i n tich ciic vac viec phat trien cac nen kinh te Bae My, phat trien thi trUdng lac ddng, vat tU, nguyen lieu, ban che dUdc hang hoa chau Au, chau A hoi nhap Bae My, tao diing dUdc mang ludi giao thdng hien dai, thuan tien cho viec giao luu hang hoa giuta cac viing mien trong mot qud'c gia, giuta cac qud'c gia vdi qud'c gia, gdp phan thiic day phat trien kinh te, tao cdng
an viec lam, cai thien dan sinh
Dac biet, NAFTA da gdp p h i n quan trong vao thu hiit vd'n d i u tU nUdc ngoai, ddi mdi cdng nghe, cai td cd ca'u cic nen kinh te khu viic, nha't la cd ca'u nganh cdng nghiep cua Mexicc chd phu hdp vdi Id trinh khu viic hua, tdan cau hca cac nen kinh te, vdi qua trinh
Trang 5phan cdng lai lac ddng xa hdi tren
pham vi tean the gidi de hang hea lam
ra d mdi nUdc deu cd ndi tieu thu
Ben canh nhutng mat tich ciic ndi
tren, NAFTA cdn met sd' ban che, can
dUdc khac phuc de tdn tai va phat
trien thanh cdng hdn
Han che de thay la cac nguyen tac
lien ke't va thiic hien nhiing nguyen
tac nay chUa tao ra niem tin va hy
vpng de cd the bie'n NAFTA thanh hat
nhan cua khu viic mau dich tii do Tay
Ban ciu (FTAA), nhU EU da va dang
lam de thu hiit cic nUdc Nam va Ddng
Au theo minh, trd thanh lien minh
kinh te, dia ly - chinh tri ngay cang
rdng md Hien nay, EU da cd 25 thanh
vien va cdn nhieu ifng cif vien xin gia
nhap, dang dUdc xet ket nap trdng dd
cd Thd Nhi Ky Theo mot sd' nha kinh
te, sd di NAFTA khdng hd'p dan cac
nUdc My Latinh chu ye'u vi NAFTA
dUa ra nguyen tac ket nap "Trade not
Aid", dUdc hieu la cac mat hang budn
ban ndi khdi khdng cd trd gia, trdng
khi dd thi My lai trd gia chd cac mat
hang ndng s i n xua't khau cua minh de
canh tranh vdi cac mat hang cimg loai
tren thi trUdng the gidi Day chinh la
mdt trong nhutng nguyen nhan lam
vdng dam phan Doha cua WTO bi keo
dai, chUa rd hdi ke't
Them vao dd, NAFTA kiem scat
bet sifc chat che, ddi khi hi coi la may
mdc, xua't xif cac mat hang lUu thdng
tren thi trUdng NAFTA, ne'u mat
hang ngoai nao tieu thu nhanh, canh
tranh dUdc tren thi trUdng NAFTA va
nha't la d My, thi lap tifc bi gin cho tdi ban pha gia va bi ap thue chd'ng ban pha gia, nhU My da lam ddi vdi san pham s i t thep cua Brazil, Argentina, ddi vdi cac mat hang thuy san cua Viet Nam, Thai Lan, nhap vao My viia qua
Rd rang," NAFTA va nhat la My lam nhu vay thiic cha't la bao hd mau dich cho ca khdi NAFTA Mac du vay, day van dUdc cci la viec lam, la hanh ddng khdng khuyen khich tien bd khoa hpc cdng nghe, khdng khuyen khich nghien cufu khoa hpc, phat minh sang che, ddi mdi cdng nghe de tang nang sua't lao ddng, ha gia thanh san pham, nang cao hieu qua san xuat Suy cho cimg day la viec lam kim ham tie'n bd khoa hpc cdng nghe, anh hudng xau den chat lUdng cudc sd'ng cua mpi qud'c gia, hi phap luat thUdng mai the gidi tif GATT de'n WTO deu phan ddi
Vi My la tru cdt cua NAFTA, cho nen chinh quyen mdi cua dng Barack Obama sau khi dUa dUdc nen kinh te
My thoat khdi suy thoai, lieu cd chu tri va manh dan ddi mdi nhUng quy che sang lap da ldi thdi cua NAFTA,
de cd the bien NAFTA thanh hat nhan cua khu viic mau dich tii do Tay Ban ciu nhu md hinh EU d chau Au
de md rdng ve ca mat dia ly, hanh chinh, lan mat thi trUdng tien te chung chau Au •
Nguon: Khd ndng mdi de md rong hdp tdc
Bdc My My Latinh - sd312009