• Tren thi trudng tin dung quoc te Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on dinh ty trgng ciia USD xoay quanh mure 50%; EUR xoay quanh mii
Trang 1KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU
DONG CUR TR6N THj TRUdNG TRI CHINH QUOC T€ Hlf N NRV:
vi TH€'VR CRC Vl'u TO RNH HUdNG
Ths Nguyen Thi Vu Ha - Nguyen Thanh Hue
Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te - Dai hoc Qude gia Hd Noi
Su ra ddi cua ddng EUR dem da den hy
vgng ve mot cue tien te du manh de duy tri sir
can bang cua he thdng tai ehinh - tien te the
gidi, von le thugc qua muc vao ddng USD ke
tu sau hdi nghi Bretton Wood Tuy nhien,
cuoc khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au hien nay
da khiln dilu nay bi nghi ngd Vay tren thuc
tl, EUR CO vi the nhu the nao tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh qude te, dac biet la sau cude
khung hoang kinh te toan ciu nam 2007
-2008 va vi thi cua ddng tien nay chiu sir chi
phii cua nhung ylu td nao? Bai vilt sau day
nhim muc dich tra Idi hai cau hdi neu tren
L Vi the cua dong EUR tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh quoc te
• Tren thi tru&ng ngogi hoi
K I tu khi chinh thue luu hanh din nay,
ding EUR luon chilm mot ty trgng khoang
37-38% tren thi trudng ngoai hdi va chi diing
vi tri thu hai sau ddla My Cude khung
hoang tai chinh d My culi nam 2007 da
khiln cho ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng
ngoai hii tang len dang kl (hon 40% tu culi
nam 2007 din culi nam 2009) Gia tri cac
' Thj trudng t^i chinh cju6c it bao g6m: Thj trudmg
ngoai h6i, thj truemg tien t? qu6c tg, thi trufifng tin
dyng quoc te, thj tnrdmg trii phi^u qu6c xk vi thi
tnifmg churng khoin qu6c te
giao dich cd lien quan den EUR khi quy ve USD tang len ttr 1.232 ty USD nam 2007 din hon 1.556 ty USD nam 2010 (tuong duomg vdi mGc tang la 26,3%)^ Tuy nhien khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au da khien cho ty trgng cua ddng tien cua khu vuc nay
bi sut giam xudng dudi 40% (tinh den thang
4 nam 2010 la 39%)
Trong hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao doi ngoai hdi, vi the cua EUR va USD ludn van dgng ngugc chieu nhau mot each rd net Cu thi la kl tii khi chinh thuc luu hanh tren thi trudng, vi the cua dong EUR tien gan sat nhat vdi vi the cua ddng USD, nhung cang ve sau thi vi the cua hai ddng tien cang each xa nhau theo chieu hudng ddng EUR ngay cang giam dan vi the cua minh Cu the
la vao nam 2001, ty trgng cua EUR chilm hon 50% cac ddng tien trong giao dich ngoai hoi phai sinh, nhung den nam 2009, con sd nay chi con khoang 40%
Ngugc lai vdi hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den trao ddi ngoai hoi, hoat dgng phai sinh lien quan den lai suat ghi nhan mot sir vugt len cua dong EUR Ty le giao dich bang ddng EUR la 39,1%, trong khi ty le cac giao
^ BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and derivatives market
activity in April 2010
Trang 246 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU • EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011
dich bang USD d miic la 34,1% (thap hon
5% so vdi EUR) Tuy nhien, gia tri cac giao
dich bang ddng USD cd xu hudng tang ke tu
nam 2000 trong khi gia tri cac giao dich bang
ddng EUR lai giam ddi chut vao nam 2007
Gia tri giao dich bang Yen Nhat da giam dan
sau khi tang len cao nhat vao dau 2007 Khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau nam
2007-2008 da khien cho vi the cua ddng EUR cai thien dan so vdi day vao nam 2007, tuy nhien muc do tang ty trgng cua EUR trong cac hoat ddng phai sinh lai suat cdn thap
Ty trong cac
dong tien
(%)
Dola My
EUR
Yen Nhat
Bang Anh
2001
89.9 37.9 23.5 13.0
2004
88.0 37.4 20.8 18.5
2007
85.6 37.0 17.2 14.9
2010
84.9 39.1 19.0 12.9
Ngudn: BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange
derivatives market activity in April 2010
* S6 lieu dugc \ky vio thang 4 hing nSm
and
_ _ USD EUR
— JPY GBP
Ty trgng c&c dong tien
giai do^n 2006 - 2009
7 0
60
50
30 —
2 0 , - ^ ; : ^
O
-Jiuy Jan July Jan July Jaik Jvty
Ngudn: The international role of the Euro 2010
USD
EUR
JPY
Ty trgng c^c d6ng tien trong giao djch ngo^i lioi phai sinh
(%)
Cic dong tien khiic (die nirfrc piiit trign)
Ciic dong tien IcIiAc ( c i c nvtifc DPT)
199» 2001 2003 20QS 2007 2009
Ngudn: The international role of the Euro,
2010
70
60
50
40
30
20 Y"
10
1999
Ty trpng cac dong tien trong ho^t dpng phai sinh
^ ~ USD EUR * , „ ,
" " JPY lai suat (%)
^ ~ ~ C i c dong tiln Idiic ( c i c niriv pliit Irien)
C i c dong tiin khii ( c i c aain DPT)
I ' ' ' • • > • • • , ^ * • '
* " '
2001 2003 2003 2007 2009
Ngudn: The international role of the Euro,
2010
Trang 3^D0*ig ^(Jldl trin thi trttdng tai ehinh Al
• Tren thi trir&ng tiin t^ quoc te
Thi trudng tien te quIc t l giao djch chii
ylu vdi 3 dong tien chinh la USD, EUR va
Yen Nhat, trong do USD chiem ty trgng Idn
nhSt, xoay quanh miic tren 50% tir nam 1999
den nam 2005 Din nam 2006, ty trgng USD
tang dan, len miic cao nhat (60%) vao giai
doan cuoi nam 2007, dau nam 2008 Ngugc lai
vdi xu hudng do, ty trgng cua dong EUR tir
khi ra ddi den nam 2003 giii d miic 30%
nhung sau do giam dan va xuIng miic thap
nhat (20%) vao khoang culi nam 2007 Gia tri
cac khoan tien giii bSng Yen Nhat In djnh d
miic 5% trong suit khoang thdi gian tir 1999
-2008 va c6 sir giam siit sau cuoc khung hoang
toan cau
Nguyen nhan ciia sir van dgng ngugc
chilu trong ty le cac khoan tien giii dinh danh
bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi
nam 2007, dSu nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so
vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR = 1,4349 USD (20/12/2007) va 1 EUR = 1,4482 USD (21/01/2008)^ lam giam cac khoan tien gui bang EUR va tang cac khoan tiln gui bang USD dii lai suat cac khoan tien giii bang EUR hip din hon so vdi cac khoan tien giii bing USD
Tir cuoi nam 2008 den dau nam 2009, khiing hoang kinh te bat dau bung no d My da lam USD giam vi the so vdi EUR Cu the la trong giai doan nay, tren thj trudng tiln te, ty trong cua USD da giam xuIng dudi miic 60% trong khi ty trgng cua EUR da tang len miic khoang 23% Tuy nhien, kl tir culi nam 2009, khi FED dua ra nhiing chinh sach hieu qua giiip nIn kinh t l My phuc hIi trd lai va dau hieu ve mot cuoc khung hoang ng cong chau
Au ngay cang ro net da lam giam vi the cua EUR Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d miic 22%^
http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/euro fcref-praph-usd.en.html
" ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The international role of
the EURO,
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/index.en.html
Trang 448 NGHIEN CQU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).20n
So iirgng
Gia tr| cac khoan tien gui dirgrc dinh danh bang cac dong tien
Thi phan
CUSD bflli<mi>
U S D
E U R
JFY
o&er
7,000
6,000
5,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1,000
O
i|||;![fU ifllilli I
(peicepCTgea; at oonstant eKcliaxi£e zates)
— U S D
EtXR
— — JFY
^
**-1999
2001 2003
J £-_ ^
2003 2007 2009
Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010
• Tren thi trudng tin dung quoc te
Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng
cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on
dinh (ty trgng ciia USD xoay quanh mure 50%;
EUR xoay quanh miic 20% va Yen Nhat chilm
dudi 10%) trir mot sir bien dgng dang ke vao
nam 2006 Nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang len
khoang 55% trong khi ty trgng EUR va Yen
Nhat giam doi chiit Dieu nay la do chi phi di vay bing USD thSp hon so vdi chi phi di vay bing EUR da thiic day viec di vay bing USD Chenh lech lai suat ciia cac khoan vay bang USD va EUR nam 2006 theo ky han 1 thang, 3 thang, 6 thang va mot nam luon nam trong khoang 1.6% din 2%
Gia tri cac khoan cho vay qua bien gidi tinh theo cac dong tien
Sd lirgrng Thi philn
U S D
JPY
otbjsr
8,000
7.000
6,000
S,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1.000
0
111
I [I
ill
— USD
E U R JPY
8,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 4.000 3,000 2,000 1.000
0
SO
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
„
i
I
!
(
•-^
80
ssis^ 6 0
30
m ^ 20
Ngudn: The international role of the Euro, 2010
Trang 5fDeng l^Qldl triri thi trúd^ng tai ehinh 49
Chenh lech lai suat cac khoan vay bing USD va EUR nam 2006
1thang
3 thSng
^6 th^ng
gl.nam '
i 5.09737 ,,
5.1988
•'15.27789 ,^^,
5 3 1 2 9 6 "
4 i 1 94319^^ '
3.08101 3.23614 ""' 3.4382
' , ' '.' 2.26
1.1,2 9K''^f2.22<'
2.069
Ngudn: http://www.econstats.com
Cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl My culi nam
2008 - diu nam 2009 da lam suy giam niem
tin cua cac ngan hang vao dong USD va hg
chuyen sang cho vay bang dong EUR Tuy
nhien, vao cuoi nam 2009 khi ng cong chau Au
c6 dau hieu lam vao khiing hoang thi thi
trudng tin dung quIc t l lap tiic phan ling theo
chieu hudng ngugc laị Ty trgng cua EUR tren
thi trudng nay tinh vao thang 12/2009 da giam
1.6% so vdi ciing ky nam trudc dộ
• Tren thi trudng chiing khoan quoc te
Gia tri cua cac chung khoan ng^ djnh danh
bing EUR khong ngimg tang len kl tir khi no ra
đi cho den nay (ngoai trir mot sir suy giam nam
2008 so vdi 2007 do anh hudng cua khung
hoang kinh tl toan cau) Ben canh do, ty trong
ciia EUR tren thi trudng nay cung tang, tir
khoang 20% (miic gin bing vdi Yen Nhat) vao
nam 1999 len hon 30% vao nam 2009 (trong khi
Yen Nhat chi chiem dudi 10%) Dilu nay cho
thay vi thi cua EUR da tang len so vdi khi mdi ra
đị Cung dl dang nhan thay, theo thdi gian,
EUR da thay thi Yen Nhat dl trd thanh ding
tien CO vj tri thii 2, sau USD
Dilm dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trong cua
USD giam xudng miic thap nhit trong khi ty
trong ciia EUR tang len miic cao nhit va hai ty
trgng nay xIp xi nhaụ Dieu nay la do nam 2005,
lai suat cua cac trai philu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam djnh danh bing EUR thap hon cac trai phieu ciing ky han khac lan lugt la 11 % va 15%^
Nam 2008, khi khiing hoang kinh tl dien
ra d My va c6 nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau, FED da lien tuc cit giam lai suit va den thang 12/2008, lai suit cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam xuIng miic lan lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%, trong khi cac chiing ng djnh danh bang EUR ciing ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va 3.698%* Lai suit cua cac churng khoan ng djnh danh bing USD thap da thiic diy viec phat hanh chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR, tuy nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao culi nam 2008' lai ngan chan sir tang trudng naỵ Do do, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den culi nam 2008, ty trgng ciia USD la 44.7%, tang nhe (1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty trgng cua EUR vSn giii" nguyen d muc 32.2%'"
DIU hieu vl cuoc khiing hoang ng cong
Hy Lap da khien cho culi nam 2009 ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng djnh danh bing EUR giam xuong miic 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi cuoi nam 2008) va tang ty trgng cac churng khoan ng djnh danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi cuoinam 2008)"
' ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sđ
* Thj truemg churng khoin ng 1^ thj truemg m^ t^i do
ding ti^n dugc dimg de djnh danh churng khoan
kh6ng phdi 14 ding tiln cua nude nguexi pMt hdnh turc
\k thi tnremg chi bao gIm cic giao dich qu6c iị
^ ECB (2008,2009,2010), sđ
'Nt
' Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB
'" ECB (2008,2009,2010), sđ
"Nt p„
Trang 650 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011
Ty trgng cac dong tien trong tone ngr quoc te
So lirgrng (nghin ty USD) Thi phan
VSD
EUR
iiiiiill
1999' ajoi' '2003 2005
•
1999
.-.•-•, • • - ^
2001
'•••«u_
!20O3 7001 200? 20QS
Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010
Diem dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trgng
cua USD giam xuong mire thap nhat trong khi ty
trgng cua EUR tang len miic cao nhat va hai ty
trong nay xap xi nhau Dieu nay la do nam 2005,
lai suat ciia cac trai phieu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam
dinh danh bing EUR thip hon cac trai phieu
ciing ky han khac lin lugt la 11% va 15%'^
Nam 2008, khi khung hoang kinh t l dien
ra d My va co nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau,
FED da lien tuc cat giam lai suit va den thang
12/2008, lai suit cac chimg khoan ng dinh
danh bing USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam
xuIng muc lin lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%,
trong khi cac chiing ng dinh danh bang EUR
cung ky han lin lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va
3.698%'^ Lai suit cua cac chiing khoan ng
dinh danh bing USD thip da thiic day viec phat
hanh churng khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR, tuy
nhien viec USD mit gia 2% so vdi EUR vao
culi nam 2008*'* lai ngan chan sir tang trudng
'^ ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd
"Nt
"* Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB
nay Do dd, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den cuoi nam 2008, ty trgng cua USD la 44.7%, tang nhe (1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty trgng ciia EUR van giir nguyen d miirc 32.2%'^ DIU hieu ve cude khiing hoang ng cong
Hy Lap da khiln cho cuoi nam 2009 ty trgng cac chung khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR giam xuIng muc 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi culi nam 2008) va tang ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng dinh danh bing USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi culi nam 2008)'*
• Tren thi tru&ng trdi phieu quoc te
Hoat dgng phat hanh trai phieu dinh danh bing EUR tren thi trudng ng quoc te da suy giam trong quy dau nam 2009 do cuoc khung hoang da lam gia tang bien dgng tai chinh toan ciu Ting trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing EUR da giam xuIng miirc khoang 2.8 nghin ty vao quy diu tien cua nam 2009, sau do khoi phuc len miic hon 3 nghin ty vao
nua sau ciia nam Tren thuc te, phan Idn cac
trai philu, ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR dugc
" ECB (2008,2009, 2010), sdd
'*Nt
Trang 7(Dang&atdl trin thi trt^^tg tai ehinh 51
phat hanh bdi cac thi chi tai chinh Culi nam
2009, ty trgng ciia khu vuc nay xoay quanh
mire 69% Miic dong gop nay Idn hon so vdi
mire dong gop cua no trong trai phieu, ky
phieu dinh danh bing USD va Yen Nhat (lin
lugt la 52% va 56%) Cung trong thdi gian
nay, ty trong cua khu vuc nha nude va cac to
chiic phi tai chinh trong phat hanh trai phieu,
ky phieu dinh danh bing EUR lin lugt la 6%
va 12%, thap hon miic dong gop cua no trong
phat hanh trai philu, ky philu dinh danh bing
USD (lan lugt d mire 12% va 16%) Tuy nhien, do dung lugng thi trudng trai phieu, ky phieu ciia USD Idn hom so vdi EUR (4.7 nghin
ty so vdi 3.1 nghin ty) nen mac dii cac the che tai chinh phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang EUR d miic 69% (trong khi ty trgng cua no trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD thap hon la 52%) nen cac
to chiic nay van phat hanh mot lugng Idn hem cac trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD trong hoat dong phat hanh ciia no
Gia tri cac trai phieu quoc te dugrc djnh danh
bing EUR xet theo khu vuc phat hanh (Ty
USD)
(USD billions) C4c to chiic quoc tS
Cac thi chg t&i chinh
u«i fir Cac cong ty
^ ^ Cdc khu vvrc cong khac
•»•«• oi Khu vvrc nhd nude
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
i i
i
j ; i ; : i t i i ; ; : : ! ! ! { ! i i « « > ! ) M i m n ! n i | , n
H
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500
0
1999 2001 20O3 2005 2007 2009
Sources: BIS and ECB calculations
I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public
financial institutions
Gia trj cac trai phieu quoc te dirgrc djnh danh
b i n g EUR xet theo khu v y c phat hanh (%, quy
IV nam 2009)
(percentages; jchu v^c nhd nudc
• _ so Cdc khu v^rc cong khdc
mtm od Cdc c6ng ty
' ^ Cdc the cha tai chinh ^^_,^ J,, Cdc to chiic qu6c tS
Dung IiTQ^ng thj trirdrng (nghin tyS)
Sources: BIS and ECB calculations
I) Includes public corporations, public banks and other public financial institutions
Nguon: The international role of the Euro, 2010
• Trong dif trie ngogi hoi todn cau
Du- trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khdng phai la
mot trong s i cac thi trudng tai chinh toan cau
nhung viec xem xet tinh hinh sir dung dong
EUR vdi vai tro la dong tiln du trir cung rat
quan trgng Dir trii ngoai hoi la phuomg tien de
cac quIc gia can thiep vao nen kinh te bang each mua ban cac dong tien va no cung co moi quan he mat thilt vdi can can thanh toan quoc
tl Do dd, ty trgng cac ding tien trong dir trCir
se phan anh ro net vi thi cua cac dong tien tren cac thi trudng tai chinh toan ciu
Trang 852 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).20n
Ty trong cac ddng tien trong dur trCr ngoai hoi toan cau 1999 - 2008
S6 luyng (nghin ty USD) Thj phan
•USD I E H IJPY lOtlieraiireDcies Undisclosed
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 i m Mi 2008
— U S D — E U R -JPY
I 1 1 1 1—n 1 1 1 r
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 200
^70
60
50
40
30
20
Ngudn: The Future of Reserve Currencies, 2009
So lieu tren cho thay USD la ddng tien
dugc dir trir nhieu nhat vdi ty trgng trong du
trir ngoai hoi toan ciu tir 60% din 70%, dumg
thii hai la dong EUR vdi ty le dao dgng tir 20
-30% Ty trgng cua cac ddng tiln trong du trir
ngoai hoi toan cau kha on dinh, ngoai trir sir
biln dong vao nam 2003 va 2005 Nam 2003,
ty trong ciia USD trong dir trii ngoai hoi toan
cau giam ciing vdi do la sir gia tang ty trgng
cua EUR Nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD tang
trd lai trong khi ty trgng cua EUR giam xudng
Sir bien dgng dang chii y ve ty trgng cac dong
tiln trong dir trir ngoai hdi tir nam 2003 din
nam 2005 dugc giai thich bdi hieu ling gia tn
Sir thay doi trong ty gia USD/EUR da anh
hudng den gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing
USD va EUR Gia tri ddng EUR lien tuc tang
kl tir diu nam 2003, din culi nam 2003, EUR
da tang gia gin 20% so vdi USD [15] Do do, gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR va ty le cua chiing trong du trii" toan ciu tang len Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ke tir dau nam
2005, ding EUR lien tuc giam gia so vdi USD, tinh den culi nam 2005, EUR da giam gia 14%
so vdi USD [15] Dilu nay lam cho gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR giam va gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bing USD tang len, dan den tang ty trgng ciia USD va giam ty trgng cua EUR trong du trir ngoai hdi toan ciu
Mat khac, kl tir khi ra ddi cho din nay, ty trgng cua EUR trong du trii ngoai hIi toan cau
da tang len trong khi ty trgng cua USD da
Trang 9<I>&nq ^(WQ trin thi tnte^ng tai ehinh 53
giam doi chut Dieu nay la do mot vai nguyen
nhan nhu sau:
* Thu nhdt, cac nude tren the gidi muon
phan tan rui ro va giam bdt sir phu thugc vao
chinh sach tiln te ciia My Nude di dau trong
phong trao nay la Lien bang Nga Nude nay da
tang ty trong ciia EUR trong ro tien te dugc sir
dung bdi Ngan hang Trung uong Nga tir 10%
-20% vao thang 5 nam 2005, len lin lugt la
35% (8/2005), 40% (12/2005) va 45%
(2/2007)'^
* Thic hai, tinh long cua cac tai san dinh
danh bing EUR da tang len dang kl Mot cuoc
khao sat dugc thuc hien bdi Ngan hang Thanh
toan Quoc tl (BIS) da dua ra kit qua la 74% cac
Ngan hang Trung uong cho rang cac trai phieu
dinh danh bing EUR cd tinh long cao, diing thir
hai sau cac trai philu dinh danh bing U S D ' ^ DO
la ly do vi sao hg tin tudng sir dung cac tai san
dinh danh bing EUR trong du tru ngoai hIi ciia
minh
* Thif ba, cac giao dich sir dung ding
EUR da tang trong 10 nam trd lai day doi hoi
cac Ngan hang Trung uong phai tich trii mot
gia tri Idn hon cac tai san dinh danh bing EUR
trong du trii ngoai hIi cua minh
Nhin chung, tren cac thi trudng tai chinh
toan ciu, ty le sir dung ding EUR vin thap
hon so vdi USD Tuy nhien, ty le su dung
dong EUR trong nhung nam gan day da tang
so vdi khi dong EUR bat dau chinh thiic dugc dua vao sii dung Mat khac, dong EUR dugc sir dung nhilu nhat d cac nude EU khong phai
la thanh vien Eurozone, sau do den khu vuc BIC My, trong khi do no dugc sir dung rat it d cac nude chau A - noi ding USD dugc sir dung phi bien
Nhu da noi d tren, ty trgng cua USD trong dir trir ngoai hIi toan ciu khong ngimg suy giam ke tir khi EUR ra ddi cho den nay Cuoc khiing hoang kinh t l My cang thiic diy xu hudng nay Ty trgng cua USD trong dir trii ngoai hIi toan cau tinh den cuoi nam 2008 la 60.7% (giam 1.3% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)'' trong khi ty trong cua EUR cuoi nam
2008 la 30% (tang 1.4% so vdi binh quan nam 2007)^° Ngay ca khi cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl cua My din qua di va chau Au lam vao khiing hoang ng, cac Ngan hang Trung uong van khong tang ty trgng cua USD trong du trir ngoai hIi cua minh Thay vao do, tinh den cuoi nam 2009, cac nude tilp tuc giam ty trong cua USD xuIng miic 58.5%, giii nguyen ty trong cua EUR va tang ty trgng ciia cac ding tiln (khong kl Yen Nhat) khac len 9.6% (diu nam
2008 miic nay la 7.8%)^' Dilu nay la do trong bii canh kinh tl toan ciu co nhilu biln dong, viec da dang hoa du trii ngoai hIi se giam bdt riii ro cho cac nude
" Ellas Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The
international role of the euro: a status report,
European Commission
" ECB (2008, 2009,2010), sdd
"Nt
^' ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), sdd
Trang 1054 NGHIEN COU CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW N°07 (130).2011
smices
euro area euro area Uiiited United J ^ J ^
(1997- {2001- States Stats (M7-
QOOl-2000) m i ) (mi- (2001- QOOl-2000) 2006)
2000) 2006)
Ty trgng cua khu virc Eurozone v i My trong tSng
GDP toan cau (theo PPP)
100%
8OP/0
eop/o 40%
20%
0%
!.MUIKt,it;ftirit.M»ilMII «M,HII I
iKIuVTIcdTkigELR IM? IKIBC
2 Cac yeu to anh hirdng den vj the
cua dong EUR
• Quy mo kinh te, do md ciia cua khu
vuc su dung dong EUR (Eurozone)
Eurozone la mot khu vuc co quy mo kinh
te Idn (GDP theo ngang gia sire mua cua khu vuc
nay nam 2010 la 10.793,97 ty USD^^), dieu nay
giai thich tai sao ngay tir khi mdi ra ddi ding
EUR da dugc cac nude tren the gidi chip nhan
va sii dung rgng rai Tuy nhien, ddng EUR van
ehua the thay the vai trd chu dao cua ddng USD
mot phan la do trong suot thdi ky tir 2002 din
nay quy md kinh te ciia Eurozone con kem My
Nam 2010, ty le dong gop ciia My,
Eurozone va Nhat Ban lin lugt la 20,22%,
14,62% va 5,83%^^ Ba khu vuc nay da dong
gop gan 50% trong GDP toan cau Dieu nay
giai thich mot thuc t l la ddng USD, ddng EUR
^^ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics
" Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the
dollar and Euro, European Commission, tai lieu duac
lly tu trang web
http://www.ecb.int/pub/html/index.en.html
va dong Yen la nhung dong tien dugc sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te, trong dd quy md kinh t l tuomg duong vdi vi the cac ddng tien
Ngoai quy md kinh te thi miic do md cira cua khu vuc chau Au, My va Nhat Ban cung cho thay vi thi cua cac ding tiln nay tren cac thi trudng tai chinh qude tl Do md cira cua Eurozone trong thdi ky tir 2001 den 2007
la gin 38%, tang 5% so vdi thdi ky tir 1997 din 2000 Cung vdi xu hudng do, do md cua ciia My va Nhat Ban cung tang len dang ke (lin lugt la 25% va 23% trong thdi ky 2000 -2007) Tuy nhien, do md cua nen kinh te hai nude nay vin thip hon so vdi Eurozone
Nam 2009, gia tri xuit khiu cua Eurozone neu tinh ca ndi KhIi chilm 29,1% tdng gia tn xuat khau toan cau, Idn hom rat nhieu so vdi My (8,6%.) va Nhat Ban (4,7%) Neu khdng tinh gia tri thuong mai ndi KhIi, ty trgng xuat khau cua khu vuc nay trong gia trj xuit khau toan cau vin Idn hon My gan 7% va Nhat Ban 12%