Ngay nay, dinh nghTa du lich drfdc thffa nhan rdng rai cua To ehffe Du lich thd' gidi (UNWTO): "Du lich la cac hoat ddng cua con ngffdi di chuyen tdi va d lai mot ndi bdn ngodi nd[r]
Trang 1CAC CHI TIEU CHINH
DO LlJOfNG CAU DU LICH
t PHAM THj THANH HUYEN
TOM T A T :
Nghidn cffu vl cau du lich ngay cang nhilu va cdng cd'p thie't dd'i vdi srf tang trrfdng cua nganh Du lich va tang trrfdng kinh te' ndi chung Viec Irfa chpn chi tidu ve cau du lich phu thupc vao nhffng muc dich nghien cffu khac nhau, tuy nhidn cdc nha nghien cffu thrfdng sff dung nhilu nha't hai chi tidu: Irfdt khach den va chi tieu khach du lich Day la md'i quan tam chinh ciia cdc doanh nghiep kinh doanh du lich; ding thdi cung la chi tidu dffdc cdc nlia quan ly quan ldm nhat
de cd thi Idp kd' hoach va quy hoach nganh Du lich phat triin
Tff khda: Cau du lich, khdch du lich, Du lich Viet Nam, chi tidu do Irfdng, nghien cffu, lifu Ini, Irfdt khdch dd'n, tSng trrfdng
1 Gidi thieu
Thed World Travel and Tourism Council, du
lich la mdt nganh kinh td' Idn va phdt trien nhanh
tren the' gidi Du lich qud'c le' ddng vai trd quan
trpng vdi nIn kinh Id' loan cdu ndi chung vd tffng
qud'c gia ndi ridng Khdch du lieh chi tidu vao eac
khoan: mua sam, an d, thffc pham va do uong, van
tai vd giai tri da dong gdp ldn vdo GDP cde nrfdc,
tao vide lam vd mang lai nhieu cd hdi phdt trien
kinh Id', xa hoi Trong dai han, du lich Id nguln
doanh thu hidu qua cho dilm dd'n cung nhrf ed hdi
viec lam Trong pham vi qud'c te', du hch giup giam
llnh trang thdm hut cdn edn thanh toan, da dang
cd'u true kinh te' va cai thien srf mat can bang kinh
Id' vung (Muzaffer Uysal, 1985) Vidt Nam cung
khdng ndm ngoai xu hrfdng phdt trien ctia nganh
Du lich the gidi, dffdc danh gia la mdt trong sd'
nhffng qud'c gia cd td'c dd phdt triin ngdnh Du lich
nhanh trdn thd' gidi vd khu vffe Du lich Viet Nam
ngay cang dffdc bie't dd'n nhilu hdn tren ban do du
lich Ihe'gidi va la dilm dd'n yeu thich ciia du khdch
qud'cte(WTTC, 2018)
Do lam quan trpng cua ngdnh Du lich dd'i vdi
kinh te', Chinh phii Vidt Nam dat rat nhieu quan
tdm tdi sff tang trffdng ciia nganh Du lich (Tong cue Du lich, 2013) Vl ting Iffdt khdch du lich tdi Viet Nam, so' Iffdng khdch du lich qud'c te tang manh trong thap ky gdn day Vi vdy, nghien cffu cde khia canh eua cau du lich va tang trffdng kinh te' la hd't sffc can thid't Dff dodn xu hffdng clu du lich trong irfdng lai cho phep nha eung ca'p cd thi dpc dung nhffng tin hidu tdi thi trffdng va cung cd'p sdn pham du lieh phu hdp, cung nhff cho nhffng nha ldm ehinh sach
2 Khai nidm can du lich
Du lich la mot khai nidm rdng, do dd, cd thi dffdc hilu vd dinh nghia theo nhilu cdch khdc nhau Wu (2010) cho rang, du lich drfdc dinh nghTa dau tien vao nhffng nam 1930 va cd trich ddn lai dinh nghTa cua Ogilvie: du lieh la hanh ddng khi con ngffdi rdi khdi ndi hp sinh sd'ng trong mdt thdi gian it hdn 1 nam va chi tidu tai ndi ho tdi tham
ma khdng vi muc dich kid'm sdng (Ogilvie, 1933) Tuy nhidn, Veneovska (2014) chi ra rang, khai nidm ve du lieh dffpc dinh nghTa ldn dIu tidn bdi Beard va Ragheb (1983) vao dau thd' ky 19 va drfdc mot nha kinh id' hpc ngrfdi Ao Id Van Schullard gidi thidu vao nam 1910: "Du lich la
Trang 2ling cdc boat ddng, chu yd'u ve ban ehd't kinh te',
lidn he trrfc tid'p tdi vide dd'n, d lai vd di chuyin
cua khdch nrfdc ngoai bdn trong va bdn ngodi mot
nrfdc, thdnh phd' hoac khu vrfc" (Veneovska',
2014) Dinh nghia nay da de cdp tdi srf ton lai effa
du lich nhan khach va gffi khdch, nhrfng chrfa cu
the chinh xdc ve khoang each dia ly, muc dich du
lich ciing nhrf mot ngrfdi d lai bao lau lai nrfdc
ngoai se drfdc coi la khach du Hch
Giai doan tff nam 1912 de'n nam 1940 chffng
kie'n sff sut giam nghidm trpng trong nganh Du lich
vi hai cude ehid'n tranh: Chid'n tranh The' gidi thff
nhd't (1914-1918) va Chie'n tranh Thd' gidi thff hai
(1939-1945) Khdng cd sff phdt triin v l djnh nghTa
du lich trong thdi ky nay (Pawaskar, 2012)
Dd'n nam 1942, hai nha nghien cffu ngrfdi Thuy
Sy la Hunziker va Krapf da dinh nghTa du lich nhrf:
"Ting hdp cdc md'i quan he vd Id ke't qua ciia hien
trfdng di chuyen va d lai cua nhffng ngrfdi khdng erf
trii hay khdng dan idi viec erf trii dai ban va khdng
lien quan tdi ba't ky hoat ddng lam viec dai han
hay tam thdi nay" (Beerli, 2004) Dinh nghia nay
da hodn thidn hdn dinh nghTa eiia Hermann Van
Schullard trrfdc dd vd drfdc cha'p nhdn rpng rai
Cling nhrfdrfpc thffa nhan bdi Hidp hoi qud'c te'ciia
eac chuyen gia khoa hpc ve Du lich (International
Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism), va
da dl cap dd'n cum tff "khdng cff tru" Vanhove
(2005) tranh luan rang, dinh nghTa eua Hunziker
va Krapf d l sdt du lich cdng vu trong khi lai ghi
nhan cd nhffng dd'i trfdng Irfu trii tai benh vidn Id
khdch du lieh Mot dinh nghTa khac drfdc xay drfng
bdi Gillbert (1990) cung gay chu y dae bidt, tdc gia
dinh nghTa du lich la mdt phan eua hoat dpng gidi
tri bao gdm di chuyen tdi dilm dd'n hodc cdng
dong, trong mpl giai doan ngdn de thda man nhu
cau tidu diing mot hoac kd't hdp nhilu hoat ddng
Ngay nay, dinh nghTa du lich drfdc thffa nhan
rdng rai cua To ehffe Du lich thd' gidi (UNWTO):
"Du lich la cac hoat ddng cua con ngffdi di chuyen
tdi va d lai mot ndi bdn ngodi ndi erf tru ihrfdng
xuyen ciia hp trong thdi gian khdng qud 1 nam lidn
luc, vi muc dieh giai tri, cdng vu hoac muc dich
khdc khdng lidn quan tdi cdng viec dffdc tra Iffdng
trong pham vi hp sinh sdng" Cung theo dinh nghTa
ndy, khdch du lich la "nhffng khdch tham quan lam
thdi Irfu trii d mot dia dilm bdn ngoai ndi sinh sd'ng
thrfdng xuydn cua hp, trong mdt khoang thdi gian
lidn tue it nhd't 24 gid, nhilu nhd't Id 1 nam, vi muc dich giai tri, cdng vu hodc muc dich khac"
3 Cac chl tieu do Irfffng cau du lich dff^c s^ dung trong cac nghidn cffu
D l do Irfdng edu du lich, eae nhd nghien cffu sff dung nhffng chi tidu khde nhau Kim (1998) da phan loai can du lich thanh 4 nhdm, dieu nay dffde chi ra trong nghidn cffu eiia Li (2004) vd Song (2010):
(1) Nhdm lieu chuan do ngffdi thffc hidn tinh bang Iffdt khach du lieh dd'n (tourist arrivals), Iffdt tham quan
(2) Nhdm lieu ehud'n do bang tien, la sd' lien khdch du lich chi lieu, chi lieu khdch du lich hay doanh thu Iff khach du lich, ddng gdp eua ehi tidu
so vdi thu nhdp
(3) Nhdm ehi tidu thdi gian tidu ton: ngay iifti tru, dem IrfU tru
(4) Nhdm ehi tidu khodng each du lieh: khoang each tinh bang dam hay km
Cde tdc gia Crouch (1994), Lim (1997) va Song
& Wilt (2000) sau khi td'ng hdp cac nghien cffu trffdc dd deu drfa ra ke'l luan: Irfdt khdch de'n, chi lidu khach du lich vd ddm Iffu tru cua khach la nhffng cdch do Iffdng bie'n phu thudc cau du lich qud'e td' dffde sff dung ehinh
Bang 1 Do Iffdng cau du Ijch dffcfc xac djnh trong cdc nghiin cffu trffdc dd
oan vi: s& luc^ng nghi§n cdu
Chi tieu
Liiot khach den Chi tieu i<hach du iich
Dp dai thdi gian liiu tru
So dgm nghi iai Khac long so nghien culu duoc xet Giai doan thuc hien nghien c6u
(Crouch, 1994b)
51
40
3
6
5
80
1961-1992
(Lim, 1997)
51
49
6
4
9
100
1961-1994
(Li, 2005b)
53
24
0
1
10
84
1990-2004
Nguon: (Cao, 2016)
Trang 3Theo sd'lidu ihd'ng kd eac nghidn cffu trffdc dd
cua Cao (2016), Iffdt khdch dd'n drfdc sff dung
nhilu nhd't de do Irfdng cau du lich Vdi nhffng
nghien cffu tde gia ihd'ng ke, Iffdt khdch du lich den
Cling la do Irfdng drfdc sff dung nhieu hdn han cac
do Irfdng cau cdn lai Lffdl khach dd'n drfdc do
Irfdng bang so' Irfdt tham quan/ hanh trinh; Irfdng
khdch du lich/lham quan; so' Irfdng khdch du lieh
(thed dau ngffdi) tren khach Iff hanh/ khach du lich
ddc lap (lich trinh chuyd'n bay), mua tour trpn gdi
(thud trpn gdi chuye'n bay) vddu lieh dffdng bd; sd'
Iffdng hay ty le khach du lich vui chdi gidi tri vd
khach du lieh edng vu, tdeh bidt khdi ting khach
du lich (Lim, 1997) Do Iffdng cau du lich theo lffdl
khdch den dffdc ffa thich vi so' lieu sfn ed va tan
sud't eao hdn (theo quy hoac theo thdng) Hdn nffa,
Irfdt khach den cung dap ffng dffdc nhu cau cua cdc
nha cung cap san ph^m/ dich vu du lich ra quye't
dinh vi chung trrfc liep anh hffdng tdi kha nang
cung cap ciia hp (vi du nhrf dau trf vdo khdch san
mdi hoac mdy bay mdi) Tuy nhien, ehi sd' nay
khdng dap ffng drfdc nhu clu drf dodn cua cdc nha
Idp kd' hoach kinh te', vi chi sd' nay khdng tinh tdi
dnh hrfdng kinh Id' cua du lich lidn quan tdi cdc ITnh
vrfc/hoat dpng
Chi lieu va/hoac hidn lai cua khdch du hch cung
drfdc sff dung Ihrfdng xuydn trong do Irfdng cau
trong du lich qud'e td' Nd drfdc bieu hien Id dieu
kidn thrfc td' hay danh nghia, dan so' nrfdc di tren
ddu ngffdi, tren khdch du lich hay tren ngay (Lim,
1997) Bid'n phu thudc nay bao gom: hda ddn bdn
hang thue' hang thang tren thrfc le; phan ddng gdp
cua long chi lieu ve may bay; phan ehi phi, ddng
gdp danh nghia vd thrfc te vdo thi ttrfdng du lich:
an ud'ng, qudn do, Iffu tru, van lai, giai tri va cdc
chi tidu khdc (Fujii, 1985) Chi tidu du lich do Iffdng
hidu qua kinh Id' cua mot diem dd'n, hdn quan Idn
tdi danh gia sffc canh tranh dilm de'n (Li, 2013)
Chi tidu la chi sd' chinh dffdc ehinh phu va ngan
hang quan tdm, ddnh gid dffdc anh hffdng kinh td'
vdi cde hoat ddng du lich Nhffdc diem la ehi sd'nay
thffdng khdng cung cd'p dffdc thdng tin thich hdp va
gdy ra nghi ngd trong qud trinh thu thdp dff lieu,
cung nhff sif lien kd't trong nen kinh te'
Chi so' Irfdt khach qud'c te' de'n cd dao ddng bat
thffdng nhieu hdn chi so' chi lidu cua khach du lich
Dieu nay dffdc giai thich bdi dd dai thdi gian khdch
Irfu trii va srf bid'n ddng ciia ty gid bd'i doai, cung
vdi nhffng yeu td kinh te' khac nhff thu nhdp cua
khdch du lich tai nffdc di va gia ca lien quan Sff khdc biet nay co the Id kl^t qua cua dac tinh hanh
vi tieu diing cua khach du lich (Li, 2004)
So ddm Iffu h-u bao gim sd' Irfdt khdch tdi khach san va chi lieu lai khdch san Theo Bakkal vd Scaperlanda (1991), vide sff dung chi so' sd' dem Iffu tru rfu viet hdn, vi nd bao gom ca thdi gian Irfu trii vd loai trff trffdng hdp d nha ban be vd ngffdi quen Tuy nhien, Syriopoulos (1990) lai coi vide ghi nhan Ihil^u loai hinh dn d bo sinh eua khach du lich nhff: cam trai, thud can hd, d lai nhd ban be va
hp hang se anh hffdng tdi dp tin edy Mot va'n dl nffa lidn quan tdi do Irfdng nay la vide sff dung duy nha'l mdt gia d l dai dien cho ta't ea loai hinh ndi an chd'n d se khdng the hidn dffdc dp nhay khdc nhau cua khdch du lich vdi srf thay doi gia d nhffng ndi luii tru khdc nhau va anh hffdng cua ehd't Irfdng ndi Iffu tru se hi lu md (Bakkal, 1991) Do khdng cd san dff lieu tai cac dilm dd'n, viec do Iffdng dem Iffu trd ciia khdch du lich hie^m drfdc sff dung trong cac nghien cffu cau du lich qud'c te' (Li, 2004) (Bakkal, 1991b, Bakkal, 1991a, Syriopoulos, 1990)
Dd ddi Irfu tru cung la mot ehi so' de do Irfdng cau du lieh, du lan sua't cac nha nghien cffu sff dung khdng nhilu Dp dai thdi gian Iffu tru ham chffa cd
sd dem Iffu tru tai cac diem de'n va khach tham quan trong ngay Theo Cao (2016), dp dai Irfu tru ddng vai ird quan trpng trong ting chi lieu khdch du lich Mdt khdch du lich d lai mdt diem de'n cang lau, s6' lien ngrfdi do chi tidu cang nhieu Tuy nhien, theo khao sdl eua Gokovali, Bahar va Kozak (2017), md'i lien be giffa dd dai Iffu tru va sd lien tidu khdng
ddpc edng bd' bdi bang chffng thffc nghidm Do dd,
dp dai Irfu tru cd phai la mdt thrfdc do chinh xdc khdng van cdn tranh cai Mac du vdy, ye'u to' do dai Iffu tru ngay cang drfdc chu y hdn Cde md hinh dinh hffdng nhrf md hinh vdng ddi binh qudn (hay md hinh sd'ng sdl) dffdc ihid'l kd' de nghien cffu vai ttd ye'u Id' nhdn khau - xa hdi eua khdch du lich hay dac trffng ky nghi eung nhff cdc ye'u td' kinh td' hpc xac dinh dp dai Iffu trii (Cao, 2016)
4 Kd^t luan
Sd Irfdng nghien cffu vl cdu du lich cang ngay cang nhieu trong 30 nam vffa qua Cac nha kinh te' hpc da drfa ra nhieu djnh nghia ve eau du lich, eho dd'n nay, dinh nghia dffde sff dung nhilu nhd't la cua UNWTO Vide Irfa chpn chi tidu d l do Iffdng cau du lieh phu thudc vdo cdc mue tieu nghidn cffu khdc nhau Tuy nhien, hai chi tidu drfdc cdc nhd
Trang 4nghien cffu sff dung nhieu nha't la lffdl khach de'n k l hoach va xem xet kha nang cung ffng ma cdn
va chi lieu khach du lieh Cdc ehi tidu nay khong drfdc cac nhd quan ly ddnh gid hidu qua vd sffc ehi Id moi quan tdm cdc doanh nghiep kinh doanh canh tranh cua mpl diem den cung nhrf ddng gdp
du lich va cac nhd quan ly quan tdm d l ed thi lap vao nIn kinh td' cua du lieh •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
/ Bakkal, I 1991a Characteristics of West German demand for international tourism in the Northen mediteranean region Applied economics, 23, 295-304
2 Cao, Z 2016 Modelling economic interdependencies of International tourism demand: The global vector autogressive approach University of Surrey
3 Fujii, E., M Khaled, MakJ 1985 An almost ideal demand system for visitor expenditures Journal of transport economics and policy, 19,161-171
4 Li, G (2004) Modelling and Forecasting UK Tourism Demand in Western Europe: Illustrations ofTVP-LAlDS Models' Superiority over Other Econometric Approaches Doctor of Philosophy, School of Management University ofSurrey
5 Lim, C 1997 Review of international Tourism Demand Models Annals of Tourism reserach, 24, 835-349
6 Li, G, Song, H, Cao, Z VA Wu, D C 2013 How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study Tourism Management, 36, 247-256
7 OGILVIE, F W 1933 The tourism movement: An economic study, London, Staples Press
8 VENCOVSKA', J 2014 The Determinants of International Tourism demand Bachelor, Charles University
9 WU, C 2010 Econometric analysis of tourist expenditure Doctor, The Hong King Polytechnic University
Ngay nhSn bai: 7/1/2019
Ngay phan bif n danh gia va sffa chffa: 17/1/2019
Ngay chap nhlin dang bai: 27/1/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
ThS PHAM THI THANH HUYEN
D^i hpc Kinh td' qud'c dan
INDICATORS TO MEASURE THE TOURISM DEMAND
• Master, PHAM THI THANH HUYEN
National Economics University ABSTRACT:
There is an increase in the number of researches on tourism demand These researches are
become more imporiant for the growth of Vietnam's tourism industry in particular and the
country's economy in general The selection of factors about tourism demand depends on each
research's objectives However, researchers often use two factors, namely the tourist arrivals and
the expenditure of tourists These two indicators are the main concern of tourism companies and
also the most important factors for drawing up tourism development plans
Keywords: Tourism demand, Vietnam's tourism industry, measuring indicators, research,
accommodation, tourist arrivals, growth