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CFA 2018 smart summary, study session 03, reading 12 1

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Reject H0 if TS > TV or TS < –TV One Tailed Test Alternative hypothesis having one side.. Decision rule Reject H0 if TS < TV Hypothesis Testing Procedure It is based on sample statist

Trang 1

2017, Study Session # 3, Reading # 12

CV = Critical Value

SE = Standard Error

∝ = Level of Significance

TS = Test Statistics

TV = Table Value

Two Tailed Test

 Alternative hypothesis having two sides

 H0: µ = µ0 vs Ha µ≠µ0.

 Reject H0 if

TS > TV or TS < –TV

One Tailed Test

Alternative hypothesis having one side

 Upper Tail

H0:µ≤µ0 vs Ha: µ > µ0

 Decision rule

Reject H0 if TS > TV

 Lower Tail

H0:µ≥µ0 vs Ha: µ < µ0

 Decision rule

Reject H0 if TS < TV

Hypothesis Testing Procedure

 It is based on sample statistics & probability theory

 It is used to determine whether a hypothesis is a reasonable statement or not

Steps in Hypothesis Testing

1.State the hypothesis

2.Identify the appropriate test statistic and its probability distribution

3.Specify the significance level

4.State the decision rule

5.Collect the data &

calculate the test statistic

6.Make the statistical decision

7.Make the economic or investment decision

Hypothesis

Statement about

one or more

populations

Null

Hypothesis H0

 Tested for

possible

rejection

 Always

includes ‘=’

sign

Two Types

Alternative Hypothesis

Ha Hypothesis is accepted when the null hypothesis is rejected

(Source: Wayne W Daniel and James C Terrell, Business Statistics, Basic Concepts and Methodology, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, 1997.)

Statistical Significance vs

Economical Significance

 Statistically significant results

may not necessarily be

economically significant

 A very large sample size may

result in highly statistically

significant results that may be

quite small in absolute terms

Significance Level ( α )

 Probability of making a type I error

 Denoted by Greek letter alpha (α )

 Used to identify critical values

Two Types of Errors Type I Error

Rejecting a true null hypothesis

Type II Error

Failing to reject a false null hypothesis

Decision Rule

 Based on comparison of TS to specified value(s)

It is specific & quantitative

Test Statistics

Hypothesis testing involves two statistics:

 TS calculated from sample data

 Critical values of TS

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2017, Study Session # 3, Reading # 12

Population Mean

• σ2

known

x z

σ

= • Ho:µ ≤ µ0 vs Ha: µ >µ0

Reject H0 if TS > TV

• Ho:µ > µ0 vs Ha: µ <µ0

Reject H0 if TS < –TV

• Ho:µ = µ0 vs Ha: µ ≠µ0

Reject H0 if TS > TV or TS < – TV

• n ≥ 30

• σ2

unknown

 = ̅



√

 or  ∗ = ̅

*(more conservative)

• σ2

unknown

• n<30

x

tn

σ

µ0 1

=

Equality of the

Means of Two

Normally

Distributed

Populations based

on Independent

Samples

Unknown variances assumed equal

2 1

2 1 2 1 ) (

1 1

) (

) (

2 2 1

n n s

x x n

n t

=

− +

µ µ

where;

2

) 1 ( ) 1 (

2 1

2 2 2 2 1 1

− +

− +

=

n n

s n s n

sP

df = n1+n2 - 2

• Ho:µ1 - µ2 ≤ 0 vs Ha: µ1 -µ2 > 0 Reject H0 if TS > TV

• Ho:µ1 - µ2 > 0 vs Ha: µ1 -µ2 < 0 Reject H0 if TS < -TV

• Ho:µ1 - µ2 = 0 vs Ha: µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0 Reject H0 if TS > TV or TS < – TV

Unequal unknown variances

2

2 2 1

2 1

2 1 2

(

n

s n s

x x t

+

2

2

2

2 2

1

2

1

2 1

2

2

2 2 1

2 1

.

n n s

n n s n

s n s f

d





+









+

=

df = Degree of Freedom

n ≥ 30 = Large Sample n< 30 = Small Sample

n = Sample Size

σ2

= Population Variance

N.Dist = Normally Distributed

N.N.Dist = Non Normally Distributed

Power of a Test

 1 – P(type II error)

 Probability of correctly rejecting

a false null hypothesis

p- value

 The smallest level of significance

at which null hypothesis can be rejected

 Reject H0 if p-value < α

Relationship b/w Confidence Intervals &

Hypothesis Tests

 Related because of critical value

C.I

 [(SS)- (CV)(SE)] ≤parameter ≤[(SS) + (CV)(SE)]

 It gives the range within which parameter value

is believed to lie given a level of confidence

Hypothesis Test

 -C V≤TS≤+ CV

 Range within which we fail to reject null

hypothesis of two tailed test at given level of

significance

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2017, Study Session # 3, Reading # 12

Testing Variance of a N.dist Population

 TS

Decision Rule

Reject H0 if TS > TS

Chi-Square Distribution

 Asymmetrical

 Bounded from below

by zero

 Chi-Square values can never be –ve

Testing Equality of Two Variances from N.dist Population TS



 ; >

Decision Rule

Reject H0 if TS > TV

F- Distribution

 Right skewed

 Bounded by zero

Parametric Test

 Specific to population parameter

 Relies on assumptions regarding the distribution of the population

Non-Parametric Test

 Do not consider a particular population parameter

Or

 Have few assumptions regarding population

Paired Comparisons

Test

TS t(n-1 )= 

  

̅ = 1  





S= S

√n



=  ∑ ( − ̅)

 − 1

Decision Rule

 H0: µd ≤µd0 vs Ha: µd > µd0

Reject H0 if TS > TV

 H0: µd ≥µd0 vs Ha:µd < µd0

Reject H0 if TS <-TV

 H0: µd = µd0 vs Ha: µd ≠µd0

Reject H0 if TS > TV

...̅ = 1< /sup>  





S=...

√n



=  ∑ ( − ̅)

 − 1< /h3>

Decision Rule

 H0: µd ≤µd0 vs Ha:

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