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According to Francis Fukuyama, “And the serious intellectual debate is urgently needed, since the current form of globalized capitalism is eroding the middle-class social base on which l

Viet Nam–Japanese University Viet Nam National University

Governance and Development

FINAL ASSIGNMENT

Read Francis Fukuyama’s “The Future of History”, and discuss how would, or would not, middle class contribute to democratization in Vietnam, taking into consideration the experiences of Thailand/Indonesia and China?

Name : Vu Hoang Dung

Student ID : 17110077

Program : Master of Public Policy

Hanoi, October 2017

1. Introduction

Under the influence of innovation, market economy development and international integration, the middle class in Vietnam is growing and developing in a diversified way They change role in the positive trend, very clear in all aspects, areas of the country's economic, political, cultural, educational, medical, scientific and technical life (câu này nhìn ko biết đâu là subject, đâu là verb, đọc đi đọc lại ko hiểu nghĩa) In democratization, the study of the contribution of this class, from which timely proposals??, recommendations solutions to promote the active role

of this class is very necessary

According to Francis Fukuyama, “And the serious intellectual debate is

urgently needed, since the current form of globalized capitalism is eroding the middle-class social base on which liberal democracy rests 1.” Historically, the rise of the middle class has led to the democratization of society This class has been developing for almost thirty years in Vietnam, and/but/so? they also involved in moving towards a democratic society This paper will clarify the contribution of the middle class for democratization and point out certain limitations in the current situation in Vietnam At the same time, it also takes the into consideration the experiences of Thailand and China

This paper will be divided into three main parts

- Middle class and democratization in Vietnam

- The contributions of the middle class of Vietnam to democratization

-The experiences of Thailand and China

1 Francis Fukuyama, “The Future of History”, 2012

2 Middle Class and democratization in Vietnam

2.1 Middle class in Vietnam

In the world, the precursors of the middle class are craftsmen, traders (Medieval Era) After the Industrial Revolution, a bourgeois force was formed and together with the factory workers created a middle-class today

According to Fukuyama (2013), “By “middle class,” I mean people who are

neither at the top nor at the bottom of their societies in terms of income, who have received at least a secondary education, and who own either real property, durable goods, or their own businesses”.

The Vietnam Communist Party's decision to reform the market-oriented economy since 1986 has increased the average income of Vietnamese people for nearly three decades According to various statistical sources,

in 2016, Vietnam has a median income per capita of US $ 2,000 or more a year2 At the same time, a middle class is formed They are private enterprises, technicians or managers in foreign-invested companies, freelancers, etc One common feature is that they are more educated than the majority of people in society

The middle class in Vietnam shows a consequence of the development of the market economy in Vietnam Market mechanisms have enabled people to free themselves of material and non-material assets, of the individual or of the family, to escape poverty and become members of the middle class It is the market mechanism that liberates and increases the efficiency of the use of these resources, creating economic growth and social progress It is the market economy which has made a part of the people population richer and more socially responsible The existence of the middle class is the evidence of the correctness of developing a market-oriented economy

2.2 Democratization in Vietnam

According to Article 4 of the 1992 Constitution, the Communist Party of Vietnam is the leading force in all activities of the society The people of Vietnam elect the National Assembly as the people's representatives to elect the president and the government However, there are some ideas

2 Report of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam 2016

that in Vietnam there is no democracy According to the 2012 Democracy Index conducted by the Economist Magazine, Vietnam ranks 144 out of

167 countries For many years, the US State Department has classified Vietnam as a "democracy, freedom of the press, religion." According to a survey conducted by the PEW Research Center based in the United States, 79% of Vietnamese respondents said that they "favor moderate democracy" and 29% of Vietnamese consider the military regime to be

"very good ", 41% considered" good "and only 3% considered" very bad "

Governance of today's democracy has reached a general state that is considered right It is widely acknowledged in countries that have achieved sufficient levels of material wealth to allow a majority of citizens

to think they belong to the middle class, which is why there is a tendency for correlation between the level of development and democratic stability

Democracy is always based on a middle class, while the citizenry that owns property increased everywhere People are getting richer and better educated, they often demand that governments do more for them, and because they have to pay taxes, they feel they have the authority to force officials to be accountable3 The legitimacy of state government derives from the ability of the state to protect the individual rights of its citizens, and that state power should be restricted by the rule of law, the fundamental right to be protected is the right to private property - which is extremely important to the middle class

3 The contributions of the middle class of Vietnam to democratization

3.1 Spreading the idea of democracy

Middle-based households are more likely to live in urban areas, where infrastructure is more developed, population is concentrated, and economic and employment opportunities are better In terms of location, the proportion of middle-class households is always higher than in rural areas, although the lower middle-class has no significant difference However, this rate is 63.4% of the middle-class households in urban areas and up to 73.7% in the upper middle class???4

3 The middle-class revolution, Francis Fukuyama, 2013

4 The role of middle-class Vietnam today, Nguyen Dinh Tan, Journal of Social Sciences Vietnam, No

9 (70), 2013

The middle class is characterized by the elite of society: the intelligentsia, thus playing an important role in spreading the idea of democracy Up to now, the middle class in many ways has always been a pioneer in spreading the idea of democracy in society, thus having a positive impact

on other classes such as farmers, workers and students, stand up for democracy??? Typical middle-class forces play an important role in the dissemination of the ideas of democracy as journalists, thinkers, academics and university lecturers

They understand technology and use social media such as Facebook and Twitter to spread information and organize demonstrations5 Even if they live in countries that regularly hold democratic elections, they feel alienated from the political elite However, the fact that they express their views and make arguments will help people around the world know about the current issues, and the government and the state to make timely adjustments

3.2 Joining civil society organizations

Vietnam has a wealthy middle class, a diverse civil society, a well-educated and progressive education All of these factors tend to increase the desire to engage in political activities

As in civil societies in other countries around the world, in Vietnam, middle-class forces play an important role in civil society organizations From the colonial period, the middle class played a major role in establishing and leading some civil society organizations After 1986, middle-class forces have directly set up their own organizations (writers' associations, journalists, business associations .), orienting for the establishment and operation of many Religious organizations, peasants, trade unions, youth, women, etc However, the activity of forming middle-class societies is sometimes restricted by government policy to control the organizations of thought Opposition At present, the middle class plays the role of establishing leadership and participation in many social organizations; plays a central role in establishing, operating and participating in civil society organizations Their activities in these organizations have had a major impact on the promotion of democratization in Vietnam

3.3 Democracy activism

5 Francis Fukuyama, “The Future of History”, 2012

At present, Vietnam emerges a new middle class is emerging in Vietnam.

A modern middle-class emerge wherever they are, causing political turmoil, but very rarely they are able, by themselves, to make a lasting political change

Studying Western societies, we also easily see the trend Do not know if it

is subjective when I think that the current Western countries help underdeveloped countries, socialist countries by trade, with aid packages, economic projects with the desire d to develop the economy for these countries, to create a middle class strong enough to find themselves democratic and civilized values (stringy and incoherent!) Because in this era, no country can bring troops to dictate intervene in another country openly They can only use subtle soft power through economics and

knowledge And people hope the middle class, the intellectuals of the country, the people responsible for scouting will lead the masses

Compared to other social strata such as workers, farmers, urban poor and students, the Viet Namese middle class is less likely to engage in rallies putting that put pressure on the mainstream to change policy At times, the Viet Nam middle class, characterized by dependence on the state, rarely expresses public opposition to the government, even though many

of them still support the regime and the struggle for democracy of other social forces In the current information explosion, however, it marked the transition of the middle class when many of them began publicly demonstrating the spirit of democratic struggle by supporting the struggle for democracy, the struggle of students and the poor, as well as direct participation in activities, giving comments to state agencies, demonstrating opposition to government policy Their participation is of great significance in encouraging the struggle of other classes in society 3.4.Limitations of the middle class Viet Nam

Despite its importance in the process of democratization, the Viet Nam middle class is, though important in the process of democratization, still carries the typical limitations of this class as well as the particular limitations of the middle class in Viet Nam First of all, it is the divisiveness

of the middle class Viet Nam, which originated from the ethnic conflict that existed during the formation of this class Although the trend of unity

is growing in the middle class of Viet Nam, divisions still exist, limiting the effectiveness of their democratic struggle

Another limitation of the middle class is the lack of dignity in democratic movements against other social strata such as peasants, workers and the

urban poor This is also a common feature of the global middle class This makes the middle class always associated with other social strata to encourage them to promote democratic struggles

4 The experiences of Thailand and China

4.1 Thailand

The growth of the middle class and civil society plays a pivotal role in the promotion of democracy They closely monitor a government’s performance and its commitment to good governance The middle class also demands access to political resources, while underscoring the importance of participatory democracy But in Thailand, the orthodox concept of the middle class as an agent of democratic change seems to be under challenge

Middle-class people do not necessarily advocate democracy in principle: Like other people, they are self-interested activists who only want to protect their assets and their status In countries like Thailand, many middle-class people feel threatened by the redistribution of the poor

income and thus they unite in favor of dictatorial governments Neither do democracies necessarily meet the expectations of their middle classes and when they do not, the middle class can become stiff6

4.2 China

The Chinese government is built around a long tradition of talent recruitment, civil service contests, high-level emphasis on education, and the advent of technocratic authority China combines dictatorial government with a partially marketed economy Many people admire China for their economic record, which can make large, complex decisions quickly It is unclear whether the model can be maintained forever Both export growth as a driving force and a decisive view from the top does not continue to reap good results forever Many problems hide behind the decision-making process effectively

China will face a major moral hazard It does not oblige itself to respect the basic dignity of its citizens Fast growth does not last forever, (giữa 2 mệnh

đề phải có từ nối and/but/so) the government pays for the repressed resentment The regime does not have any ideals to centralize it, it is

6 Francis Fukuyama, “The Future of History”, 2012

driven by a communist party that is supposed to strive for equality but is in charge of a society that expresses harsh inequality and growing

China argues that its citizens prefer a benevolent dictatorship and encourage growth rather than a chaotic democracy that threatens the stability of society7

5 Conclusions

The middle class in Vietnam now plays an increasingly important role, although (sau although ko bao giờ có dấu phẩy), in comparison with Western Europe or other developed countries, the middle class in Vietnam has not played a role (needs to be more specific) However, in the next few years, they will play an important role Do not look at them (academic writing ko dùng câu cầu khiến) as social commentators, they are the ones who will contribute to the socioeconomic development, let's look that way, then we will see that the middle class very important Do not be discouraged because they are now just taking care of family matters or just doing business to make their family grow It is these things that make the face of Vietnamese society in the future change so much significantly

In periods of the middle class, while not actively participating in the democracy movement as a social class, an elitist component in this class plays the role of oriented forces, leading the society along the path of democratization Up to now, the middle class has been transforming itself into a more democratic ideology and engaging more actively in the consolidation of democracy, becoming an essential pillar of the democratization process Although the middle classes are still limited, they are increasingly playing an important and pioneering role in promoting democratization

- TS Le Kim Sa, MSc Vu Hoang Dat, Identify the middle class in

Vietnam through a multi-dimensional approach, Political Issues and

Politics No 10 (222) 2014

- Z Abuza (2001), “The debates over - Democratization and

Legalization”, Renovating Politics in Contemporary

Vietnam (London: Lynne Rienner Publisher), pp 75-130.

- Nguyen Dinh Tan, The role of middle-class Vietnam today, Journal of

Social Sciences Vietnam, No 9 (70), 2013

- Francis Fukuyama, The middle-class Revolution, 2013.

7 Francis Fukuyama, “The Future of History”, 2012

- Francis Fukuyama, At the "End of History" Still Stands Democracy,

2014