Adaptation to climate change variability and change - methodological issues

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incor

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE:

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES

RICHARD J.T KLEIN1and DONALD C MACIVER2

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

2 Atmospheric Environment Service, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario

M3H 5T4, Canada

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a

Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that

involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research

communi-ties This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the

contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science

Key words: IPCC, adaptation science, methodologies, recommendations.

1 Introduction

In its Second Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) concluded that:

“There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcings by

greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the observed climate record This

evidence comes from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of

tempera-ture change Taken together, these results point towards a human influence on

global climate” (Santer et al., 1996, p 412).

This “discernible human influence on global climate” is particularly important in the

light of the considerable time lags between the emission of greenhouse gases and their

consequent effects on global temperature and especially sea level Even if atmospheric

greenhouse-gas concentrations are stabilised over the next decades, global temperatures

are still projected to increase for another few decades, while sea level will continue to rise

for a number of centuries (Wigley, 1995; Raper et al., 1996) These lagged effects,

attrib-utable to past emissions, are often termed the “commitment to climate change” that

nature and society have to face

The awareness of this “commitment”, combined with the notion that it is unlikely that

current patterns of greenhouse-gas emission will soon be curbed, has led scientists and

policymakers to recognise the increasing need for adaptation to climate change, while

continuing mitigation efforts However, climate adaptation has a considerably longer

his-tory, focusing on hazards resulting from natural variability and weather extremes In fact,

there is a large literature on weather-related hazards that is highly relevant when

study-Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4: 189–198, 1999.

c

ing adaptation to climate change (cf Burton et al., 1993) To date, however, it has been

largely ignored by those focusing on climate change, in part perhaps because it uses a

somewhat different terminology For example, in the hazard literature, activities that

equate with climate adaptation are termed hazard mitigation

2 Rationale for the Workshop

To bring together the various fields relevant to climate adaptation, the IPCC Workshop on

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change (San José, Costa Rica, 29 March - 1 April

1998) involved over 200 experts and incorporated views from many research

communi-ties Relevant fields included those of hazard mitigation and climate variability, even

though the mandate of IPCC is limited to assessing climate change However, the

partici-pants in the IPCC Expert Meeting on Adaptation (Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 20-22

March 1997), which served as a preparatory meeting for the IPCC Workshop, concluded

that adaptation to climate change cannot be meaningfully studied and conducted without

considering climate variability The IPCC Bureau subsequently adopted this conclusion

Some may ask why, irrespective of the consideration of climate variability, it has

taken IPCC ten years to organise a workshop on adaptation to climate change To a large

extent, adaptation has played only a marginal part in the reports produced by IPCC thus

far This reflects the limited attention given to adaptation by scientists worldwide In his

review of the Working Group II volume of the IPCC Second Assessment Report, Kates

(1997) suggested the reason for this lies in the existence of two distinct schools of thought

about climate change, both of which have chosen not to encourage adaptation research

On the one extreme Kates identified the “preventionist” school, which argues that the

ongoing increase of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations could be catastrophic and

that drastic action is required to reduce emissions Preventionists fear that increased

emphasis on adaptation will weaken society’s willingness to reduce emissions and thus

delay or diminish mitigation efforts On the other extreme, one finds what Kates referred

to as the “adaptationist” school, which sees no need to focus on either adaptation or

mitigation Adaptationists argue that both natural and human systems have a long history

of adapting naturally to changing circumstances and that active adaptation would

consti-tute interference with these systems, bringing with it high social costs

Following the publication of the IPCC Second Assessment Report, a distinct third

school of thought has emerged, which we will label the “realist” school The realist

school positions itself in between the two extreme views of the preventionists and

adap-tationists Realists regard climate change as a fact, but acknowledge that impacts are still

uncertain Further, realists appreciate that the planning and implementation of effective

adaptation options takes time Therefore, they understand that a process must be set in

motion to consider adaptation as a crucial and realistic response option along with

miti-gation (e.g., Parry et al., 1998; Pielke, 1998) The IPCC Workshop on Adaptation was a

first step in this process

190 RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER

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• Adaptation Science, Adaptive Management and Adaptation Options Framework

This Workshop Framework, as illustrated in the Working Paper on Adaptation to

Climate Variability and Change (Wheaton and MacIver, 1998) worked extremely well

and it is recommended that Working Group II follow a similar subdivision of Adaptation Science (Theory); Adaptive Management (Practice) and Adaptation Options (Solutions) for the TAR Further subsections within Science include Adaptation Research, Scenarios, Monitoring/Data Management, and Adaptation Science Assessments Adaptive Management subsections include Socio-Economic Sectors, Ecosystems/ Species Environments and Integrated Assessments; and within Adaptation Options sub-sections include Reducing Vulnerabilities, Enhancing Opportunities and Options Assessments It is suggested that Regional Impact Studies be integrated into the Adaptation Science and Adaptive Management sectors, respectively

• Assessments of the Use of Traditional and Local Knowledge

The IPCC needs to incorporate traditional and local knowledge into the TAR A considerable wealth of traditional knowledge exists and various mechanisms, including Workshops, need to be initiated to synthesise and summarise this information, especially adaptation to extreme events

• Assessments of the Use of Proprietary and Industrial Knowledge

Considerable proprietary information, industrial analytical reports and management plans contain relevant and critical information on adaptation, even though this may not always be recognised This information, such as managerial codes and practices (e.g., building codes, forest management agreements, engineering designs), requires independent assessment and incorporation within the TAR

• Adaptation Monitoring, Data Management and Early-Warning Indicators

A recurring issue at the Workshop was the need for consistent monitoring networks for adaptation, adaptation data management, baseline analysis, literature reviews, information and the development of early-warning indicators The IPCC is recommended to develop guidelines for adaptation monitoring, data management and early-warning indicators

• Assessment of Analogies

The 1997/98 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and other natural hazards have provided global opportunities to identify lessons in impact assessment and adaptation options The IPCC needs to assess the literature on a world-wide series of case studies of specific ENSO-related events Such science assessments should not only evaluate all aspects of the event, but also address the question of how one would

respond to exactly the same event, should one know that it would occur again in a

number of years' time

• Integrated Assessments for Adaptation

Building adaptation beyond the traditional socio-economic sectors and natural

systems into integrated assessments is strongly recommended for the contribution of

Working Group II to the TAR Recommended chapters include biodiversity, social

vulnerability, water resources, coastal zones, human health, and trade and equity

issues

• Assessment on Adaptation to Climate Variability

Many participants recognise that reducing vulnerability to current climate variability

is an essential step towards reducing vulnerability to climate change The TAR should

therefore include an assessment of the scientific literature on impacts of and

adaptation to current climate variability This will enhance the TAR's relevance to

policy-makers with respect to their current investment decisions and international

co-operation, while also providing a framework to assist longer-term choices related to

climate change

• Adaptation Options Assessment

Science assessments on specific issues are a recognised process to capture the state of

knowledge It is recommended that Working Group II develop the methodologies to

assess adaptation options, with particular attention to the role of technology, technology

transfer, risk assessments and cost/benefit analysis

• International Impacts and Adaptation Training

Participants recognised the urgent need for International Training Programmes on

Impacts and Adaptation and, in some countries, the development of Facilities In this

latter case, it was emphasised that impact studies, adaptation theories, practices and

options must be regionally oriented in their training, education and awareness

programmes It is suggested that the IPCC First Assessment Report, Second

Assessment Report, interim up-dates and special reports could provide the basic

curriculum

• Linking Mechanisms

There needs to be a specific section in the TAR that addresses the linkages between

(i) Impacts and Adaptation, (ii) Adaptation and Mitigation, (iii) Climate Science and

Impacts, and (iv) Climate Science and Adaptation This will require close collaboration

between the three Working Groups of IPCC

3.2 ADAPTATION MESSAGES

• Global losses due to climate-related disasters have increased by a factor of 40

since the 1960s The current uncertainty surrounding climate-change impacts,

includ-ing their interaction with climate variability and non-climatic stresses, requires an

assessment of risks and opportunities High-impact-low-probability events present

special challenges and should be included in the risk analysis

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• Many lessons can be learned from past and current experiences to cope with

climate variability and natural hazards, most notably in agriculture, water resources,

human settlements, human health and coastal zones It is important to build on these

experiences in order to improve capabilities to anticipate or respond to

climate-change impacts The identification of indicators can act as early-warning systems of

climate change

• Adaptation to climate variability and change can be "autonomous" or "planned"

Autonomous adaptation takes place without intervention of an informed decision

maker Planned adaptation requires strategic actions, based on an awareness that

cli-mate is changing and that action is needed to better respond to such changes The

pos-sibility of rapid climate change poses new challenges for adaptive management and

adaptation options

• Adaptation can be either "reactive" or "pro-active", depending on the timing,

goal and motive of its implementation, Reactive adaptation takes place after impacts

of climate change have occurred, while pro-active adaptation takes place before

impacts are apparent Autonomous adaptation, in both natural and human systems, is

by definition reactive, while planned adaptation in human systems can be both

reac-tive and pro-acreac-tive

• Planning for adaptation will take time and should therefore not be postponed

until impacts of climate change occur In spite of the current uncertainty, a range of

adaptation options can be employed to increase the flexibility and adaptability of

vul-nerable systems, and reverse trends that increase vulnerability Many of these options

will be of immediate benefit, and can therefore be considered "no-regret" adaptation

Consideration of adaptation costs and benefits must include consideration of

inter-generational and intrainter-generational equity

• Data and information are critical for climate-change adaptation They can come

from a wide variety of sources, including risk and natural-disaster management, but

accessibility is often constrained (e.g., disparate sources, proprietary holdings, costs

and other restrictions on exchanges)

• "Maladaptation" describes the extent to which adaptation fails, and is part of a

dynamic learning process Maladaptation can be reduced or avoided by greater

con-sideration of external drivers, cross-sectoral and cross-regional impacts, analysis of

case studies of specific situations and areas, and equity issues Maladaptation may be

encouraged by insurance and disaster-relief measures The establishment and

enforce-ment of standards (e.g., building codes), taking account of climate change, is crucial

• Social vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of groups or individuals to stress

as a result of social and environmental change Important elements of social

vulnera-bility include food security, resource dependency, risks to human health, migration,

and economic factors In many places, social vulnerability is increased by climate

variability and change, particularly extreme-weather events

• Many technologies that can be used to adapt to climate change are already in use

to adapt to climate variability Technology needs and technology-transfer mechanisms

should be more fully assessed and reported to increase the role of technology in

cli-mate adaptation

• Institutional and financial arrangements should give greater support to

adaptation Adaptation assessment should be included early in vulnerability studies in

co-operation with a wide range of stakeholders

• Water resources could be seriously impacted by increased droughts and high-water

events Priority should be given to adaptation in catchments where water is close to

full utilisation A regional and integrated approach to adaptation, incorporating

mar-ket and non-marmar-ket values, multiple stakeholders, groundwater and vegetation, is

expected to be most effective

• Many coastal zones and small islands face erosion, inundation, saltwater

intrusion and increased flood risk as sea level rises These stresses are already

occur-ring now and are aggravated by current socio-economic trends Adaptation to climate

change and sea-level rise must therefore be integrated with coastal zone management

and development plans, and should reduce maladaptation

• Biodiversity, forests, coral reefs and other ecosystems with non-mobile species

are particularly susceptible to multiple stresses such as fire, pest outbreaks, storm

damage and sediment changes A number of pre-adaptive measures may exist to

cope with climate change, but important constraints limit potential adaptation for

bio-diversity

• Climate-related impacts on human health are strongly related with other factors

While primary sensitivities to climate change are known, increased understanding of

indirect effects and cross-linkages to, for example, food, air, water and natural

haz-ards are needed Co-ordinated health and climate data, monitoring, assessment and

other functions are also required

• Access to insurance as a means to adapt to climate variability and change is severely

limited for most of the Earth's population Some adaptation measures within the

insurance industry (e.g., reduced coverage) may not be beneficial to society as a whole

4 The Special Issue

Around thirty papers were presented at the IPCC Workshop, covering a wide variety of

relevant science issues, ranging from data requirements for adaptation and the role of

bio-diversity to adaptation decision techniques and methods for assessing social vulnerability

and resilience These and other papers were subjected to peer review and most have now

been published as two special journal issues Roughly, a division has been made between the

theory and practice of adaptation Most papers found in a special issue of Environmental

Monitoring and Assessment (MacIver and Dallmeier, 1999) present adaptive management

and sectoral issues All papers in this special issue (MacIver and Klein, 1999) contribute to

the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science They propose, discuss or apply

methodological concepts or frameworks for assessing adaptation research and for planning

and implementing adaptation options from a range of perspectives

Smit et al (1999) examine the conceptual basis of adaptation assessment They

dis-tinguish between two types of adaptation assessment: positive and normative, both of

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Basher (1999) discusses the important aspect of data availability for adaptation purposes Effective adaptation relies on relevant, accurate and up-to-date data to inform scientists and managers Data and information are required for adaptation research, for the development and testing of adaptation methods, and for the routine operation of adap-tations Basher (1999) identifies a number of constraints to the accessibility and use of data and information, including data charges, inadequate monitoring networks and lack

of awareness of relevant data, leading to incomplete or inappropriate data collection Wheaton and MacIver (1999) identify the critical need to understand and develop adaptation options and to reduce the social and economic vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change They use key questions to build a framework for adapta-tion by organising the quesadapta-tions into three major areas: adaptaadapta-tion science, adaptive man-agement and adaptation options The authors identify that the move towards adaptation research, management and options needs to be fully supported along with mitigation

Klein et al (1999) evaluate the applicability of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations (Carter et al., 1994) to assess

adap-tation in coastal zones Based on case studies from The Netherlands, the United Kingdom

and Japan, they develop a framework for coastal adaptation that comprises four steps:

(i) information collection and awareness raising, (ii) planning and design, (iii) imple-mentation and (iv) monitoring and evaluation They conclude that the IPCC Technical Guidelines consider adaptation assessment primarily to be the evaluation of imple-mentable options, rather than the assessment of a system’s adaptive capacity To assess a system’s adaptive capacity, the entire process of adaptation must be considered

Adger and Kelly (1999) present a conceptual model of vulnerability at the level of individuals and communities Instead of using impact scenarios of a future climate, they study adaptive processes in communities to today’s climate and socio-economic context, and investigate how these processes serve to increase or decrease vulnerability to climate change Using poverty, inequality and institutional adaptation as indicators of vulnerabil-ity, they find remarkable differences in relative vulnerability between groups within eleven Vietnamese coastal communities They conclude that vulnerability at this level is determined by the availability of resources and by the entitlement of individuals or communities to call on these resources

Handmer et al (1999) also approach vulnerability and adaptation to climate

variabil-ity and change from a societal perspective From studying food supply securvariabil-ity, the emer-gency planning and management industry and a case study of Australia, they identify five themes that determine societal adaptive capacity: (i) vulnerability and resilience, (ii) globalisation and markets, (iii) institutional responses, (iv) uncertainty and (v) the

physical environment They conclude that human societies in general are highly adapt-able and that constant adaptive behaviour is a characteristic of social, political and eco-nomic activity However, large disparities exist between and within regions In places without strong institutions, well-functioning systems and economic power, even minor climate variability may be catastrophic

Bruce (1999) discusses the role of disaster loss mitigation in further detail He reflects

on the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and provides an overview of

a range of recent related extremes He argues that the occurrence of weather-related disasters has shown a sharper increase over the past three decades than that of other, non-atmospheric, natural disasters According to Bruce (1999), this shows that changes in land use and increased exposure of population and infrastructure are not the only factors contributing to a trend of increasing damages At least on a regional scale, changes in climate are also to blame Based on the natural-hazard literature, Bruce (1999) suggests six categories of adaptation aimed at minimising risks: (i) warning systems, (ii) preparedness, (iii) safe buildings, (iv) water structure safety, (v) other infrastructure safety and (vi) land-use planning

Berz (1999) also presents statistics that show increasing trends of weather-related dis-asters and damages He focuses on the impacts of these disdis-asters on the insurance indus-try and on the possible responses of this indusindus-try to such disasters, particularly when they would become more frequent or intense as climate changes These responses could include increasing deductibles or restricting cover Berz (1999) also suggests that the insurance industry become more active when it comes to climate protection and set its clients an example of precautionary action

Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999) present IPCC with ten lessons drawn from adaptation analyses under conditions of risk and uncertainty They scold IPCC for its efforts of “sci-ence by consensus” and argue that for its Third Assessment Report, IPCC cannot afford

to continue in that tradition According to Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999), science by con-sensus fails to consider the low-probability-high-risk extremes associated with climate change Yet, robust adaptation to climate change depends on a better understanding of these extremes Yohe and Dowlatabadi (1999) also warn IPCC for too great a reliance on integrated assessment, for this type of analysis will never accommodate adequately the richness and diversity of climate adaptation across the world

Leary (1999) develops a cost-benefit framework for evaluating the consequences of climate adaptation on social welfare In doing so, he distinguishes between autonomous

adaptation (i.e., actions taken by individual households or firms that are in their own interest) and public adaptation (i.e., collective actions to protect public goods, or the

pro-vision thereof) Leary (1999) also discusses the optimal timing of adaptation He shows

that when benefits of adaptation are uncertain (e.g., because of uncertainty about

impacts), it could be optimal to postpone irreversible investments until more information

is obtained He therefore concludes that investing in research and in adaptation measures that address both future and current concerns is to be preferred

Smith (1999) combines climatic, hydrological and socio-economic information to assess the policy implications of urban flooding in three Australian catchment areas He

196 RICHARD J.T KLEIN AND DONALD C MACIVER

that the Nile Delta is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to sea-level rise and that adaptation can be very costly They conclude that a combination of beach nourishment and hard structures would be the optimal adaptation, to be carried out in a framework of integrated coastal zone management

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