Opportunities High PC market growth potential particular in rural areas due to overall low PC penetration rate of 15%.. The government has digital divide programmes to boost internet
Trang 2Business Monitor International
85 Queen Victoria Street
© 2012 Business Monitor International
All rights reserved
All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as
TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2012
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2016
Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series
Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: August 2012
Trang 4CONTENTS
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Vietnam IT Sector SWOT 7
Vietnam Telecom SWOT 8
Vietnam Political SWOT 9
Vietnam Economic SWOT 10
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 11
Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Table: Asiapacific It Risk/Reward Ratings 17
IT Markets Overview 18
Market Overview 26
Government Authority 26
Industry Developments 35
Industry Forecast 39
Table: Vietnam IT Industry – Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated), 2008-2016 42
Industry Forecast Internet 43
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Hardware 45
Software 47
Operating Systems 48
IT Services 51
Macroeconomic Forecast 53
Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 55
Company Profiles 56
FPT Software 56
Demographic Outlook 57
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60
BMI Methodology 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
Transport Industry 61
Sources 62
Trang 6Executive Summary
BMI View: Vietnamese IT spending is expected to reach US$2.6bn in 2012, up 14%, with BMI upwardly
revising its forecast due to macroeconomic factors Drivers such as rising PC penetration, economic growth, a range of government ICT initiatives and a campaign to develop Vietnam's domestic IT industry will help to sustain continued expansion going forward Vietnam's improving ICT infrastructure will also drive the development of the nation's IT market in a country with below 20% PC penetration Meanwhile, cloud computing revenues are expected to report at least 300% growth over the forecast period
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: US$1.60bn in 2011 to US$1.85bn in 2012, +12% in US dollar terms
Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, but due to lower prices tablets are expected to provide a strong
growth area in 2012
Software sales: US$191mn in 2011 to US$224mn in 2012, +17% in US dollar terms Forecast in US dollar terms upwardly revised due to analyst modification, but will depend on the success in bringing
down illegal software use
IT Services sales: US$402mn in 2011 to US$478mn in 2012, +19% in US dollar terms Forecast in US dollar terms upwardly revised due to analyst modification with growing demand for digital
infrastructure projects in various sectors, such as banking, telecoms, energy and government
Risk/Reward Ratings: Vietnam's score was 33.2 out of 100.0 Vietnam ranks 11th in our latest Asia
RRR table, ahead of Sri Lanka The country ranked only ninth for its IT market score of 36
Key Trends & Developments
The Vietnam IT market is expected to grow around 14% in 2012 Government and business IT spending remain subject to fiscal restraints and external economic headwinds, and the
devaluation of the dong will also inhibit demand However, the Vietnamese economy is expected
to remain generally strong and drive growth in IT investments
In 2011, a number of government ministries and organisations, including the Ministry of Education and Training, started to promote the roll out of cloud services Plans to modernise IT
in government agencies and the customs department, as well as the Tax Administration Modernization Plan for 2008-2013 represent opportunities for vendors of IT products and services
Trang 7 An ambitious government IT plan for 2010-2020 should shape many segments of the Vietnamese IT market, with the government pledging to invest VND2.4tn (US4,115mn) from the State Budget in the ICT sector over the next decade The government's increasing focus on encouraging ICT development and foreign investment in the tech sector will also create opportunities Many of the government's ICT development plans and programmes are still in a nascent stage and their ultimate effectiveness is yet to be determined
Trang 8SWOT Analysis
Vietnam IT Sector SWOT
Strengths The domestic IT market is in a rapid growth phase, with trade liberalisation and
growing affordability driving projected double-digit growth of notebook computers
Expanding ICT infrastructure and internet penetration will continue to drive demand for IT products and services
Vietnam's gradual integration into the global trade network via its accession into trade organisations such as ASEAN and WTO, as well as bilateral agreements with Japan and China
Weaknesses IT spend per capita much lower than in neighbouring Thailand, reflecting a
much lower GDP and GDP per capita
Low levels of access to credit and budgets restrain spending by SMEs
Highly cost-sensitive market, with 75% of software provided by lower-cost local software vendors
High level of software piracy at 85%, although it has fallen in the last few years
Opportunities High PC market growth potential particular in rural areas due to overall low PC
penetration rate of 15%
Vast and relatively under-penetrated rural market presents a significant growth opportunity as the government rolls out measures to boost rural connectivity and incomes
National IT Plan will drive spending on IT utilisation in areas like e-government, e-taxation and education
SMEs have much potential to increase spending on basic solutions, including customer relationship management and security
Threats Continued depreciation of the dong against the US dollar would increase the
pressure on Vietnamese distributors of foreign IT goods
Falling prices may further undermine margins and profitability after steep discounting in 2009
The implementation of the China-ASEAN free trade agreement means that established multinationals will face a growing challenge from low-cost Chinese vendors in the Vietnamese market
Trang 9Vietnam Telecom SWOT
Strengths Fixed-line penetration levels and internet user rates are high in major urban
centres, such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Danang and Haiphong
Competition exists in fixed-line and internet access markets; VNPT faces competition from several other state-owned companies and two privately-owned operators
High levels of literacy and other demographic factors bode well for strong and continued demand for wireline services over the next few years
Weaknesses Vietnam's fixed-line and internet access markets are both dominated by
state-controlled operators, VNPT and Viettel
Although alternative broadband infrastructures are currently being explored, broadband growth continues to be dependent on DSL
Low fixed-line penetration rates in rural regions limit the scope for DSL broadband growth
Internet user growth is slowing, despite the limited access to internet infrastructure in much of rural Vietnam
Broadband tariffs remain high, creating a barrier for low-income subscribers to access
Opportunities The privatisation of VNPT could help to bring about increased investment
revenues and the arrival of new skills
On a national level, broadband penetration rates remain low; this means that the sector has considerable growth potential
VNPT plans to invest US$1bn in 2009, in order to upgrade its broadband networks and expand its international internet bandwidth
Significant opportunities exist to develop alternative broadband technologies, including WiMAX and fibre
WiMAX services are currently being trialled with a view to licensing a number of WiMAX service providers in the near future; WiMAX internet services have the potential to raise the level of internet user penetration in rural parts of Vietnam
Draft Bill of Law on Telecommunication has been put forward for discussion at the National Assembly Steering Committee If passed, the bill will allow private companies to build network infrastructure for the first time and will open up the telecoms market to foreign investors
Threats Fixed-line sector may enter a period of decline, with potentially negative
consequences for ADSL growth
As the market for mobile data services grows, this could have potentially negative consequences for the growth of fixed broadband services
Trang 10Vietnam Political SWOT
Strengths The Communist Party of Vietnam remains committed to market-oriented
reforms and we do not expect major shifts in policy direction over the next five years The one-party system is generally conducive to short-term political stability
Relations with the US have witnessed a marked improvement, and Washington sees Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia
Weaknesses Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of
the ruling Communist Party
There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership's tight control over political dissent
Opportunities The government recognises the threat corruption poses to its legitimacy, and
has acted to clamp down on graft among party officials
Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government policies This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the one-party system
Threats Macroeconomic instabilities in 2012 are likely to weigh on public acceptance of
the one-party system, and street demonstrations to protest economic conditions could develop into a full-on challenge of undemocratic rule
Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam's political scene in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party state will probably be unsustainable
Relations with China have deteriorated over recent years due to Beijing's more assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands, which could potentially cause wide-scale environmental damage
Trang 11Vietnam Economic SWOT
Strengths Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years,
with GDP growth averaging 7.1% annually between 2000 and 2011
The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 14.0% in 2010
Weaknesses Vietnam still suffers from substantial trade, current account and fiscal deficits,
leaving the economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties in 2012 The fiscal deficit is dominated by substantial spending on social subsidies that could
be difficult to withdraw
The heavily managed and weak currency reduces incentives to improve quality
of exports, and also keeps import costs high, contributing to inflationary pressures
Opportunities WTO membership has given Vietnam access to both foreign markets and
capital, while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased competition
The government will, in spite of the current macroeconomic woes, continue to move forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and liberalising the banking sector
Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver The UN forecasts the urban population rising from 29% of the population to more than 50% by the early 2040s
Threats Inflation and deficit concerns have caused some investors to re-assess their
hitherto upbeat view of Vietnam If the government focuses too much on stimulating growth and fails to root out inflationary pressure, it risks prolonging macroeconomic instability, which could lead to a potential crisis
Prolonged macroeconomic instability could prompt the authorities to put reforms
on hold as they struggle to stabilise the economy
Trang 12Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Strengths Vietnam has a large, skilled and low-cost workforce, that has made the country
attractive to foreign investors
Vietnam's location – its proximity to China and South East Asia, and its good sea links – makes it a good base for foreign companies to export to the rest of Asia, and beyond
Weaknesses Vietnam's infrastructure is still weak Roads, railways and ports are inadequate
to cope with the country's economic growth and links with the outside world
Vietnam remains one of the world's most corrupt countries According to Transparency International's 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index, Vietnam ranks
112 out of 183 countries
Opportunities Vietnam is increasingly attracting investment from key Asian economies, such
as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan This offers the possibility of the transfer of high-tech skills and know-how
Vietnam is pressing ahead with the privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the liberalisation of the banking sector This should offer foreign investors new entry points
Threats Ongoing trade disputes with the US, and the general threat of American
protectionism, which will remain a concern
Labour unrest remains a lingering threat A failure by the authorities to boost skills levels could leave Vietnam a second-rate economy for an indefinite period
Trang 13Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI's Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) compares the potential of a selection of the region's
markets over our forecast period through to 2016 Our Q312 ratings reflect our consideration of the political and economic risks, as well as the risks associated specifically with IT intellectual property (IP) rights protection and the implementation of state spending projects
While there were changes to the countries' individual scores, the rankings were largely unaffected The only change came in the form of Indonesia overtaking India and Thailand to become the eighth ranked
country among the 12 covered in the Asia Pacific region by BMI
Singapore retained its leader position with an IT Ratings score of 74.1 Although Singapore's IT market is significantly smaller than many of its regional peers, the country has other redeeming factors For
example, Singapore is highly urbanised with a pool of skilled labour The country is also strategically placed at the heart of South East Asia amid emerging markets such as Indonesia and Thailand Its strong infrastructure (which includes access to major submarine cable networks and high-speed broadband connectivity), political stability and pro-business environment attract foreign investors and spur
technological developments
Singapore's ambitions to emerge as a regional cloud computing hub will fuel vendor investment in service capabilities In February 2011, the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore and the Information Technology Standards Committee (ITSC) formed a Cloud Computing Standards Coordinating Task Force to: 'address the industry demands for cloud computing standards and coordinate the cloud computing standardisation efforts across the different Technical Committees in ITSC'
Australia closed the gap with Singapore by achieving an IT Ratings score of 73.2, up from 70.9 in the previous quarter The upgrade was largely due to an improvement in its IT Market score, although an increase in its Country Risk score aided as well Due to the country's sheer size, it is inevitable that certain regions suffer from a deficiency in IT network and services However, the government has been looking to resolve the issue with its ambitious National Broadband Network (NBN), which aims to deliver nationwide high-speed broadband connectivity with a combination of fibre, fixed-wireless and satellite technologies The introduction of high-speed broadband connectivity should fuel demand for sophisticated services such as cloud computing (which is already being embraced by the public sector and enterprises), machine-to-machine (M2M) connectivity and telepresence as well as devices, as the industry moves towards ubiquitous connectivity and internet-connected homes
Hong Kong saw its IT Ratings score rise to 72.6 from 69.4 in the previous quarter Like Australia, the
Trang 14offset by a decline in the territory's Country Risk score Hong Kong has one of the lowest fibre broadband tariff rates in the world, and this provides the backbone for next generation IT services such as cloud computing and data centres Hong Kong is also well connected to the international submarine cable network, and the territory is one of the 11 landing sites for the new 10,400km Asia Pacific Gateway (APG) system The network, which is scheduled to become operational by June 2014, is designed for an initial transmission speed of 40Gbps per wavelength, using Digital Coherent detection and Optical Add-
Drop Multiplexing technologies, according to Japan's NEC The APG system will be able to
accommodate 100Gbps for increasing efficiency and capacity in the future
Similar to its developed peers in the region, South Korea is also encouraging the utilisation of cloud computing by small businesses New cloud computing offerings and increased competition in this
segment are expected to fuel growing demand to use this technology Other areas of growth include M2M and telecare, which are led by technological advancements in the underlying networks At the end of January 2012, there were 44mn 3G subscribers and 2.8mn 4G (comprising WiBro and LTE) users By comparison, there were only 6.7mn 2G subscribers
However, besides being vulnerable to the global headwind, South Korea's economy has its own
problems Firstly, South Korea's household debt situation remains an overriding concern While a
collapse in the housing debt market looks to be an unlikely scenario, considerable risk remains from households' debt servicing capacities as the economy heads south Secondly, its external debt situation puts the economy in a very precarious position Given that a significant portion of external debt is held by foreign bank branches and is short-term in nature, a sudden bout of risk aversion could see substantial foreign capital outflows
Malaysia remained in fifth position in our Q312 regional ratings There are increasingly attractive
opportunities in the IT services area as the government implements measures to make Malaysia a growing regional services and outsourcing hub Guiding the government and industry is the country's Economic Transformation Programme, which has earmarked areas such as cloud computing as one of its top 10 strategic technology priorities The rollout of the High Speed Broadband network will also boost IT spending outside the Klang Valley and help the country achieve a household broadband penetration rate
of 75% by 2015 Other projected growth and PC market drivers include a rise in the PC penetration level from about 35%, tax exemptions for notebooks and growth in disposable incomes
Our Chinese hard landing view is playing out well, evidenced by the People's Bank of China's decision to
cut its reserve requirement ratio in February 2012 and a sharp drop in the HSBC flash purchasing
managers' index for China to 48.1 in March 2012, from 49.6 in the previous month
A Chinese economic slowdown would negatively affect IT market growth, albeit to a lesser extent than other industries like infrastructure or automotives Factors such as the vast potential rural market and a
Trang 15commitment to modernisation in sectors such as education, healthcare and manufacturing are among the expected drivers We expect growing interest in cloud computing will be stimulated by the establishment
of government pilot programmes Besides market risks such as poor intellectual property rights
protection, piracy and a lack of business transparency, the overall pace of development has been
comparatively slow However, companies have started to seek the help of foreign counterparts to
accelerate the process For example, China Mobile collaborated with South Korea's SK Telecom to develop technologies such as M2M, while China Telecom formed a strategic partnership with Internet
Initiative Japan to provide cloud computing services in China
In the Philippines, the IT market will be driven by the local IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) sector The BPO industry, which accounts for around 30% of IT spending, continues to grow, and it is in the midst of expanding operations outside Metro Manila In order to facilitate the expansion, network operators are extending fibre optic network throughout the country to provide high capacity
connectivity The Philippines is also looking at cloud computing as the next growth driver, with the private sector leading the charge Domestic firms have partnered with foreign IT companies in order to provide the necessary infrastructure and technology to expand their products portfolio, which should attract businesses including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as they look to cut costs amid an uncertain global economy
Indonesia is ranked eighth with an IT Ratings score of 42.8, up from 39.1 in the previous quarter The significant improvement was driven by an upgrade in its IT Market, Country Structure and Country Risk scores With ICT penetration of only about 20% and development restricted to richer areas such as Java,
the Indonesian IT market has much growth potential BMI expects the Indonesian market to be one of the
fastest growing in the region over the five-year forecast period, and this has been reflected in the country's movement up the Risk/Reward Ratings table Spending in some key IT verticals such as financial services and banking should continue to be significant in 2012 Government IT spending is also expected to increase and could account for as much as 25% of the IT market The SME sector will drive demand for basic hardware and applications as enterprises focus on enhanced productivity
Indonesia is also susceptible to the global headwind, and weak demand from China will pressure
Indonesia's trade surplus However, we expect resilient private consumption and capital investment to enable the archipelago to continue to outperform the region Wage growth in Indonesia has been strong as the economy's growth has begun to translate into higher employment Reports indicate that minimum wages have been raised by as much as 20% in some cities, and double-digit wage growth is widely expected Consumer strength has translated into increasing demand for goods previously inaccessible to the majority of Indonesians, such as automobiles and consumer electronics
India's IT industry possesses significant growth potential as only a small portion of the country's massive
Trang 16from Indian businesses and government agencies to help use more advanced IT solutions to improve efficiency and reduce costs Consequently, India had a relatively high IT Market score of 52.5 However, the country was significantly let down by its weak Country Structure score
Although India has made strides to address its electricity deficit (the country's power supply deficit improved from an 11.1% power deficit in Q1 FY2008/09 to a 6.6% deficit in power supply during the first quarter of FY2011/12); that deficit remains sizeable and India needs to boost investment to cope with demand, which has been growing at a significant pace, fuelled by rapid population growth and continued high levels of economic growth This is set to continue and presents a major obstacle to the country's business environment and economic development
However, it is insufficient for India to only address power generation as the annual power loss through the country's power grid system is estimated at more than 30% As of 2006, about three-quarters of India's villages received an electricity supply, but only 43% of rural households had been provided with a
permanent supply According to the Planning Commission of India, 600mn people are not connected to the power grid That said, India's transmission grids sector is showing significant growth potential for private investors The sector is undergoing a process of liberalisation, requiring state-run companies such
as state-owned Power Grid Corporation of India to compete with private sector companies for
electricity transmission projects
The short-term outlook on Thailand's IT sector is largely mixed Local media have reported that retail IT sales are expected to decline by 15% year-on-year in Q112, attributable to higher living costs
Furthermore, the effects of the flooding are still being felt, with higher end-product prices in light of supply chain disruptions to hard disk drives However, the industry envisages a recovery in H212 due to the launch of new products such as ultrabooks (which are expected to become more affordable),
government-led projects and increasing 3G network coverage BMI shares the sentiment as the
government has been trying to fulfil its election promise of bridging the digital divide in the country
The Smart Thailand project, which was first unveiled in September 2011, aims to boost the country's competitiveness through greater ICT development The initiative rightly looks at integrating ICT
particularly into the government sector, and expanding and upgrading the underlying network
infrastructure, which would improve the overall business environment
Smart Thailand has a two-pronged approach The Smart Network project, which will cost THB80bn, aims
to expand broadband coverage to 95% of the population by 2020, up from a forecast 80% in 2015 and the current 33% The Smart Government project aims to transition all 800 government services across the education, health, government service and agriculture sectors to an electronic platform, which should improve service quality and the communication between agencies If both measures are successfully implemented, Thailand should become more attractive to companies and foreign investors
Trang 17Vietnam remains in 11th position with an IT Rating of 33.5 While the sizeable population, growing affluence and increasing middle class present long-term potential for IT demand, like India, Vietnam's poor Country Structure score has negatively affected the country's attractiveness The government has digital divide programmes to boost internet and digital utility in rural areas, which theoretically should help to fuel market growth and open PC ownership to a growing number of rural inhabitants Moreover, Vietnam's gradual integration into global trade networks such as ASEAN and the WTO has helped reduce tariff barriers and prices, and has increased opportunities However, overall progress has been slow, partially due to a lack of clear vision and state-owned companies' dominance in the ICT market
There were no changes to Sri Lanka's IT Rating score of 28.3, although we highlight that the country holds long-term potential in light of the restoration of peace and improvements in the security situation, which will help to release pent-up demand for IT solutions The country has felt the effects of instability over the years, from disruption of distribution channels and a flourishing grey market to the
underdeveloped telecoms infrastructure However, Sri Lanka will feature on IT vendors' radars as one of the best potential growth prospects in South Asia Computerisation has only just started in government services Major public and private sector organisations remain largely underpenetrated in terms of basic enterprise software
However, initiatives such as network expansion projects by telecoms providers to increase internet penetration rates in Sri Lanka, and free training tools for SMEs from the International Finance
Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group) to boost adoption of IT services, could help the
country to close the gap with its regional peers
Trang 18Table: Asiapacific It Risk/Reward Ratings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Country MarketIT
Country Structur
e Limits Market Risks Country Risk Risks RatingIT Regional Rank
proprietary Country Risk ratings The ratings structure is aligned across the 14 industries for which BMI provides
Risk/Reward methodology and is designed to enable clients to consider each rating individually or as a composite, depending on their exposure to the industry in each particular state For a list of the data/indicators used, please
consult the appendix at the back of the report Source: BMI
Trang 19IT Markets Overview
IT Penetration
Across Asia, government ICT initiatives and growing affordability will help to drive increases in PC
penetration during BMI's five-year forecast period While some cities and regions stand out, there is an
unbalanced pattern of regional development, with PC penetration in countries such as
Singapore exceeding 50%, while in other countries such as Indonesia, it is less than 5%
The two Asian giants, China and India,
embody the region's growth potential,
as in both countries computer
ownership remains the preserve of a
minority In China, PC penetration is
only around a forecast 30% in 2012;
although it is far higher in cities such as
Shanghai and Beijing, and urban PC
penetration is projected to pass 60% by
2016 In India, less than 5% of people
own a computer However, some 45%
of the population is under 25, which
provides a promising demographic
context for increased PC ownership PC
penetration in Vietnam is estimated by
BMI at around 20% in 2012
Notebooks are owned by an estimated
10% of the Vietnamese population, which points to significant growth potential for the local PC market
Lower prices will help to drive higher PC penetration in developing markets The average price of a PC in the Indian market has nearly halved over the past few years, and rising incomes and greater credit
availability will continue to bring computers within the reach of lower-income demographics Even in more mature markets there is room for development, however, with official data suggesting that as many
as 25% of Hong Kong households do not have a computer at home
Around the region, affordable computer programmes continue to find favour with governments In China,
a subsidised household electronics products initiative aimed at rural residents has helped to boost PC sales
in areas where penetration was low In Australia, national and state governments continue to roll out new initiatives, with the Victoria government investing more than US$150mn in IT in schools
Narrowband Penetration
Per 100 Population
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI, Regulators
Trang 20In Indonesia, PC penetration of around 3% could double by 2016 if government initiatives are followed through The Indonesian government is also rolling out new e-learning initiatives, with a target of raising the current 1:3,200 ratio of PCs to students in public schools to 1:20 Meanwhile, the Vietnamese
government has launched a programme entitled One Teacher-One Computer, which offers discounts on PCs for teachers and students
A similarly broad range is found with respect to internet penetration The highest levels of internet
penetration are found in South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, with estimated 2012
penetration rates of 76.9%, 74.0%, 73.3% and 71.0% respectively Singapore has by far the highest rate of broadband penetration, which was estimated at 189.5% in 2012 Meanwhile, the Philippines has the
lowest levels of internet usage, with just 8.3% narrowband and 7.4% broadband penetration estimated in
2012
The fastest growth is expected in Indonesia,
where internet penetration is projected to
leap from 45.4% in 2012 to 68.9% in 2016,
and the Philippines, where penetration is
forecast to reach 12.6% by 2016 India is
still at only 11.8% internet penetration
despite an improvement in fixed-line
infrastructure, and penetration is forecast to
reach only 16.2% by 2016 Steady growth is
also projected for Sri Lanka, where
penetration is projected to increase from
18.8% to 25.4% by 2016 Some 56.4% of
Malaysians have internet access in 2012
Dial-up technology is still the dominant
access method in many states However,
even in developing markets, the number of broadband subscribers continues to gain ground steadily
Broadband penetration has been boosted by a growing number of mobile broadband users, as 3G mobile services are expanded across the region In China, broadband penetration is on course to reach 20.9% by
2016 In India, penetration should more than double to reach 2.8% by 2016 from around 1.2% currently, although this remains below government targets Sri Lanka will also see continued solid growth in
broadband penetration, which is projected to reach 21.7% by 2016
Across the region, government programmes are an important driver of ICT penetration The Chinese
government has a five-year plan to make the internet available in every administrative village in central
Broadband Penetration
Per 100 Population
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI, Regulators
Trang 21and eastern China and every township in the west In Australia, the government's commitment to develop the National Broadband Network should further the development of Australia's digital economy
Meanwhile, the growth of Wi-Fi coverage will be one driver of notebook sales in places such as Hong Kong, where the government has committed another HKD200mn to the deployment of a Wi-Fi network covering more than 200 public venues
IT Growth and Drivers
Across Asia in 2012, IT spending
should benefit from improved
economic circumstances and tenders
previously deferred as a result of the
economic situation, although a forecast
slowdown in China could act as a drag
on some markets Strong fundamental
demand drivers of IT spending mean
that there will be continued
opportunities Key factors common to
most markets include cheaper PCs and
reform in sectors such as
telecommunications and finance, as
well as government initiatives
In some of the region's largest markets,
such as China, lower-tier cities and towns will be among the fastest growing segment of the IT market
BMI expects China's IT market growth to be driven by an expansion into western China and rural areas
as well as growing demand from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
Despite these drivers, BMI expects a moderation in Chinese consumer and business IT investment in
2012 owing to government economic cooling measures and uncertainty about the global economic situation However, an expansion in consumer credit and a modernisation drive in sectors such as
education, healthcare and manufacturing will sustain market growth
The long-term IT market potential of another Asian giant, India, is plain: less than 3% of people in India own a computer (about one-fifth of the level in China), meaning particular potential in the lower-end product range Having postponed IT projects during the economic slowdown, many Indian private and public sector organisations are now investing again in upgrading their IT infrastructure
2012 IT Market Sizes
US$mn, forecast
Source: BMI
Trang 22India's IT market appears to be positioned for
strong growth thanks to an improving
economy and consumer sentiment as well as
government support for modernisation in
lagging sectors Meanwhile, India's business
process outsourcing industry is growing at
around 40% per annum and will continue to
generate opportunities for vendors of IT
products and services
In Thailand, demand will be bolstered by
market expansion in the relatively
underpenetrated rural areas SIS estimates
that market growth in upcountry areas should
be 30% in 2011, double what it has forecast
for the country as a whole A similar situation
pertains in India where in 2012 strong growth
opportunities are expected in smaller cities
The Philippines is one of the countries currently benefiting from low-priced PC programmes (PC4ALL), which provide opportunities for vendors to penetrate the low-income segments Other regional computer sales drivers over the forecast period include education, lower prices, IP telephony and cheaper
processors, as well as notebook entertainment and wireless networking features Meanwhile, in Indonesia the basic demographics of rising computer penetration and growing affordability should drive growth SMEs represent a growth opportunity, as currently only around 20% of Indonesian SMEs are estimated to make use of IT Compliance with government and international regulations will be a driver in financial, manufacturing and other sectors
IT Market Sizes
As % Of National GDP
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI
Trang 23In more developed markets, such as Hong
Kong and Singapore, robust retail sales led
the way in 2011, as evidenced by the strong
advance sales of Apple's iPad2 In 2012
vendors hope that the iPad 3 and ultrabooks
will provide new growth areas Economic
expansion and improving business
conditions are underpinning stronger
business sector demand while a strong
property market and lower unemployment
have boosted confidence among consumers
However, a potential cooling of the Chinese
economy as a result of monetary tightening
would quickly spread to both markets
The largest IT market in the region is,
unsurprisingly, China; forecast at
US$121.7bn in 2012, trailed distantly by Australia (US$21.6bn), India (US$20.7bn) and South Korea (US$18.5bn) Singapore's IT market (including communications) is the largest as a proportion of national GDP (2.4%), followed by Hong Kong (2.1%) Thailand's IT market has been affected by a number of exogenous events including floods, which in late 2011 disrupted its production of hard disk drives, but in
2012 looks to be back on track
The fastest growing IT markets over the forecast period look set to be India and Indonesia, with
2012-2016 compound growth of 109% and 96% respectively, driven by increasing PC penetration Sri Lanka is
third, with its IT market growing by an estimated 83% over BMI's five-year forecast period, while
China's total growth is estimated at a still-healthy 55%, slower than Vietnam at 69%
Sectors And Verticals
Regional IT markets remain hardware-centric, with hardware accounting for 43-73% of total spending in all markets in 2012 However, spending on software and services will grow faster Notebook sales are growing much faster than the PC market as a whole, with growth driven by falling prices and more
features
In mature markets such as Australia and Singapore, PC sales are dominated by replacement sales In Australia, upgrades are estimated to account for at least 80% of business purchases and more than 50% in the case of households More than 90% of Australian households now have a PC, but consumers have appeared willing to spend on upgrading their notebook computers It is also becoming more popular to
IT Markets Compound Growth
2012-2016 forecast (%)
Source: BMI
Trang 24Tablet sales will provide a PC market growth area, with triple-digit growth projected in many markets In China it is estimated that tablets accounted for around 6-7% of computer sales in 2011 The tariff on an imported iPad was previously set at around CNY1,000 and has now been reduced to CNY500 In 2012, tablets should be a growth area in India as well, with sales surpassing 1mn units, although much will depend on greater affordability The arrival on the market of cheaper, locally produced tablets, retailing for as low as US$30, will help expand the market
However, partly thanks to the tablets surge, demand for netbooks has lost momentum in some markets Sales, although initially promising, have sometimes fallen short of perhaps unrealistic expectations Meanwhile, vendor expectations of a substantial boost from their promotion of high-tier ultrabooks may not be realised until prices come down closer to their US market level
In less developed markets, demand from under-penetrated rural areas, affordable computer programmes and growing broadband penetration should generally drive growth In China, as in much of emerging Asia, demand from smaller towns and rural areas where PC penetration is relatively low will provide the main source of growth In India, 2011 saw a wave of computer procurements by local governments Another driver in emerging Asian markets will be replacement of desktops with notebooks SMEs will be one of the strong growth segments over the forecast period, with SME demand for servers and networking equipment a significant growth opportunity
Falling prices is another major driver, placing pressure on margins In India, the average price of a PC has nearly halved over the past few years, and rising incomes and greater credit availability will continue to bring computers within the reach of lower income demographics
In both emerging and more mature markets, the growing popularity of broadband will help to support
computer sales China Telecom is among regional telecoms companies to have rolled out PC bundling
offers as part of its broadband packages Meanwhile, broadband plans will also help to popularise tablets
Australia telecoms operators such as Telstra were competing to offer affordable tablets bundled with data
services
Due in part to high levels of piracy, software's share of IT spending is relatively low, ranging from
11-36% among countries covered by BMI Efforts are being made to tackle the issue of piracy but, despite
government crackdowns in China and the Philippines, software piracy remains at more than 70% in most
Trang 25integrated into the global supply chain, their multinational business partners often encourage them to install back-office systems to meet requirements of efficiency The growing global ambitions of many Asian companies, as well as often booming domestic markets, will fuel investments in software
In general, ERP and other e-business products still dominate the enterprise software market, but vendors are also looking to other areas such as customer relationship management (CRM) and business
intelligence, where faster growth is possible Although the market remains relatively small, more
companies are looking at computing solutions such as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Cloud computing business models such as SaaS offer smaller businesses a cost-effective way to deliver applications such as payroll, tax-return processing and recruitment
Market Structure (% of IT Market)
2012f (LHS) & 2016f (RHS)
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI
The hosted application model may already account for between one-fifth and one-quarter of China software revenues and SaaS has also enjoyed steady growth in the Hong Kong market over the past few years Improved broadband infrastructure will assist the popularisation of the rented software model in markets such as Indonesia Meanwhile, around one-third of Australian organisations already use some cloud computing The cloud computing market in India is currently very small but is forecast to expand rapidly
New platforms and services in the telecoms field are drivers for that key IT spending segment, where an industry restructuring with the advent of 3G mobile services has led to more competition Meanwhile,
Trang 26expanding technology adoption in the logistics industry and public transport will be a source of IT
services projects Sectors such as hospitals and real estate will also provide opportunities
The IT services segment accounts for 17-41% of spending in the Asian markets covered by BMI The
global economic slowdown and credit tightening had an impact on projects in some verticals, but in 2012
a brightening business climate should mean more opportunities in key IT spending verticals such as financial services, telecoms, government, healthcare and logistics
Government spending will account for a larger share of spending in many markets In China, government stimulus packages have helped to drive IT-related investments, while in Singapore, government ICT projects such as SOE2 provide significant opportunities Meanwhile, the Hong Kong government's Digital 21 initiative will continue to generate spending
Regionally, hardware deployment services remain the largest IT services category, with other
fundamental services including system integration, support systems, training, professional services, outsourcing and internet services Main spenders across the region include banks and financial institutions
as well as governments Even in emerging markets such as India, IT vendors are having to pay more attention to value-added services such as technical support and product troubleshooting, or basic IT and hardware consulting
In many countries, the number and size of local outsourcing deals are increasing Outsourcing could account for as much as 30% of China's IT services spending by 2013, while in India there have been some
large contracts such as that awarded by Idea Cellular to IBM Singapore and Hong Kong have both seen
a trend towards larger outsourcing projects in the public and private sectors
Meanwhile, growing interest in cloud computing will be further stimulated by government programmes
In China, government cloud pilots are under way in at least five cities The Hong Kong government announced plans in 2011 for an escalation of its cloud strategy over the next few years In 2012 more leading Australian private and public sector organisations are expected to launched cloud initiatives and the government has adopted a six-year cloud computing strategy
Trang 27Market Overview
Government Authority
Government Authority Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC)
Minister Le Doan Hop
Government Authority
The Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) is the main Vietnamese policymaking and regulatory body in the field of IT, although its brief also covers a number of other areas, such as
telecommunications, broadcasting and publishing
The MIC's major functions include proposing and drafting laws, regulations and development plans related to IT and other policy areas The current national framework for IT is the Strategy for IT
Development, which was approved in 2005 and covers the 2010-2020 period
Background
The Vietnamese IT market, including computer hardware, packaged software and IT services, was valued
at US$2.2bn in 2011 Vietnam IT spend per capita, at around US$25 in 2011, was considerably lower than the US$225 estimated for ASEAN neighbour Thailand However, IT spend per capita is expected to almost double to US$45 by 2016
Computer hardware, including desktops, notebooks, and accessories, is the largest IT market segment in Vietnam, accounting for around 74% of spending in 2011 Packaged software was valued at US$191mn that year, equivalent to around 9% of spending IT services and outsourcing comprised 17% of spending
Tariff reform, expanding internet infrastructure, a growing economy and government programmes will all play a part in driving Vietnamese IT market growth over our five-year forecast period Vietnam has a relatively good IT and telecommunications infrastructure, with particularly high mobile telecoms
penetration However, with PC penetration at below 20%, there is still a large portion of the population that do not participate in the digital society and are unable to afford the latest IT products
The household sector, which accounts for below 15% of the IT market currently, should increase its share
by 2016 The country's vast, under-penetrated rural market offers the most PC market growth potential, with Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City accounting for most sales currently, also presents a significant growth opportunity as the government rolls out measures to boost rural incomes
Trang 28The government sector is a key segment of the Vietnamese IT market and comprises about 30% of national IT spending Public IT spending by around 7,000 government organisations at national,
provincial and municipal levels will provide important opportunities to vendors A number of
programmes exist to increase IT utilisation in areas like e-government, e-taxation and education The national IT plan has regional components, focused on northern, eastern and southern regions
The private sector accounts for around 60% of IT demand and both domestic and foreign enterprises are investing in IT to boost performance Large corporations are more likely to buy software from top-tier vendors, but SMEs account for the majority of Vietnam's 400,000 enterprises and are increasingly a target for multinationals There is a lot of potential for Vietnamese enterprises of all sizes to increase spending
on basic solutions, including customer relationship management (CRM) and security
The Vietnamese IT market remains constrained by high levels of grey market activity, and particularly by software piracy, which accounts for around 85% of installed software However, the rate has come down from 95% in the last two years due to a more proactive government approach to the problem
ICT Sector
The ICT sector is a key growth priority for the Vietnamese government, which has a plan to grow it The value of the ICT sector was put by government figures at around VND330bn (US$16.5bn) in 2010, but around two-thirds of those revenues were telecoms related Hardware sales were estimated at around US$7bn, while revenues from software and digital media development were put at US$2bn The total of approximately US$9bn represented growth from around US$6.6bn in 2009 Electronics companies in Vietnam focus mainly on assembly, with value-added contributing only about 10% of revenues Vietnam has around 150 software companies, many of which are focused on export markets
In 2009, the government set an ambitious target of 14% annual growth for the ICT sector, with total turnover to reach US$50bn by 2014 US$14bn is to come from hardware and US$5bn from software Telecommunications is projected to account for half the total, or US$25bn
Hardware
BMI projects that sales in Vietnam's computer hardware market will be worth around US$1.8bn in 2012,
up from an estimated US$1.6bn in 2011 The main growth driver will be affordable notebooks BMI
projects growth of around 12% in the Vietnam PC market this year, slightly below the growth rate
estimated in 2011, and 2010 when the market bounced back from the effects of the economic slowdown
In Q311, vendors reported continued strong growth in PC sales, boosted by inventory restocking and back-to-school sales However, following a robust performance in the first three quarters of the year, a deceleration was expected in Q412 The Thai floods led to reports of shortages of HDD supplies,
Trang 29while seasonal promotions placed further pressure on prices and margins According to information from the Vietnam Government Statistics Office, in the first eight months of 2011, the country spent US$3.91bn
on imports in the category of computers, electronics products and spare parts This represented a rise of 28% on the same period of 2010 Imports in the category reached US$600mn in August, up from a revised figure of US$569mn in July
In 2010, overall PC sales were similarly reported to have achieved double-digit growth, compared with
2009 The growth was driven mainly by imported laptops, with shipments up by around one-third in H110, both sequentially and y-o-y Desktop sales, however, remained in negative growth territory The depreciation of the dong restrained demand by leading to higher prices for imported laptops Vendors reported the number of first-time buyers in the market was relatively limited, with most sales coming from purchases of typically lower-priced second computers Going into H210, growth received a boost in August with back-to-school sales, and summer retail promotions Sales of PCs picked up as new vendors entered the market while others rolled out new models, allowing for double-digit growth for FY10
In 2012, sector procurements across a wide range of sectors, including education, healthcare and
transport, and growing demand from businesses in rural areas, will help maintain momentum In the first
11 months of 2011, procurements of PCs and other IT hardware comprised around 50% of total
government ICT spending of VND856bn, although this total also included fibre optic cables However, a number of factors could potentially act as a check on the PC market, including government cutbacks and continued caution in the business segment, despite growing awareness of the strategic value of IT
investments
PC penetration in Vietnam was estimated by BMI at around 18% in 2011 Notebooks are owned by an
estimated 7% of the Vietnamese population, which points to significant growth potential for the local PC market, with the most potential being in rural areas Currently, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are thought
to account for around 85% of notebook sales The spread of fixed and mobile broadband services will
spur purchases of mobile PCs as connectivity devices As elsewhere, telecoms operators such as Viettel
are emerging as significant distribution channels for notebooks as vendors seek tie-ups
Going forward, government programmes are expected to make a significant contribution to computer sales In August 2009, the Vietnamese government announced a national programme to supply 1mn
computers at favourable prices to Vietnamese schools by 2011 Multinational IT vendors such as Acer,
Intel and Microsoft were all participating in the programme Desktops will retail under the programme at
around US$161, or about half the usual price The computers will come loaded with educational software and with broadband connections
The programme received reinforcement with the launch in Ho Chi Minh City in January 2010 of a
Trang 30the Ministry of Education and Training, will provide laptops at a price that is VND800,000 below the market price Discounts of up to 80% for schools and 30% for teachers will also be offered on VNPT's broadband service packages
The main driver of sales is notebooks, for which the addressable market was estimated at around 1.5mn units in 2011 Notebooks' share of the total PC market has grown very rapidly over the past five years and
in 2012 is forecast at around 70% Further double-digit growth in netbook sales in forecast over the forecast period In particular, LCD-screen notebooks are forecast to grow at an almost triple-digit rate
Meanwhile, desktops have seen a corresponding rapid decline in their PC market share, and are expected
to account for fewer than 30% of units sold in 2012, down from above 70% five years ago
Netbooks saw a steep decline in popularity in 2011, with a number of leading vendors, such as former netbook segment leader Sony, withdrawing models from the market Retailers such as home appliance chain Ideas reported that sales declined rapidly last year with the result that less shelf space was allocated
to the devices Other chains, such as Thien Hoa, said that netbook sales remained stable but this segment has faced strong competition from low-end notebooks with more features, as well as from smartphones, tablet notebooks, and specialist devices such as e-readers
Tablet sales are expected to report another year of near triple-digit growth in 2012 Several Vietnamese enterprises has launched tablet PCs, with the first such product, from Hanel, being introduced on the market in October 2010 Tablets are being designed to appeal to consumers who find a smartphone inconvenient for consuming video media or surfing the web, but for whom a netbook is still too big or heavy Tablets are generally significantly more expensive than smartphones but due to falling prices and a growing preference for mobility are seen as a strong growth area
However, local products are expected to find it hard to compete in this segment with tablets from
multinational brands, like Apple's iPad, which has enjoyed growing recognition in Vietnam since
undertaking to release 6mn low-cost versions Other vendors, such as Samsung with its Galaxy Tab, have followed Apple in releasing tablet devices, which have a form factor between the size of a smartphone and a netbook
Meanwhile in 2012, vendors are pinning their hopes on the much-hyped new product category of
Ultrabooks as a growth area Ultrabooks are fully featured portable computers whose functionality compares favourably with the scaled-down netbooks and tablets that have dominated PC sales in the recent past However the current high prices of Ultrabooks are likely to limit demand in the short term to below 10% of sales
Trang 31Software
In 2012, Vietnam software sales are projected by BMI to grow to US$224mn, and software CAGR for
2012-2016 should be in the region of 18% Software spending comprises around 9% of total Vietnamese
IT spending currently The market is expected to reach a value of around US$380mn by 2016, with steady growth in demand for licensed software from government, enterprise and household segments
Vietnam's software market is developing, despite the problem of software piracy, which still accounts for around 83% of software, compared with around 76% in neighbouring Thailand While high, the piracy rate of 83% in 2012 did represent a drop of 2% compared with 85% in 2010, and 95% as recently as
2007 This has at least enabled Vietnam to escape the list of the top ten countries for software copyright infringement The Vietnamese government has gradually taken a tougher stance, with the problem is more one of enforcement rather than a lack of legal provisions In 2012, inspectors discovered 10
computer sales agents of leading brands such as HP, Dell, Lenovo and Acer installing pirated software products According to estimates, the value of the seized software products was around VND1bn
In November 2011 the government provided a boost to legal software usage by signing an extension of a deal with Microsoft to purchase licensed software for government organisations The original 2007 agreement had covered all 63 provincial authorities, 24 ministries and enterprises where the state has a stake of more than 50%
In the past year, the government has moved to tighten enforcement of copyright regulations Decree 47.2007.NP-CP, which became effective in June 2009, allows for a penalty of up to VND500mn (around
US$28,000) for instances of software piracy In April 2010, it was announced that Bach Khoa Internet
Security Centre (or BKIS) and Lac Viet Computer Joint Stock Co had become the first Vietnamese
firms to join the Business Software Alliance, a global software industry association that focuses on copyright issues
The Vietnamese software market remains highly cost-sensitive, with around 75% of the market served by lower-cost local software vendors Local software dominates the market for government and SME
segments However, larger Vietnamese companies are more likely to buy higher-priced software from multinationals, which have around 25% of the market Vietnamese customers are demanding a higher level of support for software compared with a few years before
Growing PC penetration, as well as new technologies and business models including 3G mobile and WiMAX, and industry trends such as software-as-a-service (SaaS) and open source will provide areas of Vietnamese software market growth going forward Most demand remains for on-premises subscription models, due to the greater perceived security and degree of control However, as internet infrastructure improves in Vietnam, there should be more demand for alternative models such as SaaS and other cloud
Trang 32In 2012, migrations to Microsoft's new Windows 7 operating system should continue to have a positive impact on software revenues, although much will depend on consumer and business confidence
Microsoft officially introduced Windows 7 in Vietnam in early November 2009, with the programme
being installed in PCs sold at leading electronics distributors such as Nguyen Kim, Tran Anh, Phong
Vu and Dang Khoa However a large portion of the installed computer base still uses the Windows XP
operating system Meanwhile Microsoft has introduced a Vietnamese version of Windows Live and has announced a list of Vietnamese software programmes that are compatible with Windows 7 including Vietnamese font programmes, dictionaries and accounts software There should also be a boost from systems upgrades previously delayed as a result of the economic situation However much will depend confidence in the economic situation
The global economic downturn may have added to the forces driving interest in open-source software due
to its perceived lower cost and access to codes The economic downturn has led businesses and customers
to look more closely at open-office-type open-source software, as well as free services such as Google Docs, which are funded by advertising Once again, a key issue and precondition for the more widespread adoption of open source will be the development of a support infrastructure
There is still a lot of potential for Vietnamese enterprises to increase spending on basic solutions,
including CRM and security According to estimates by the Ho Chi Minh Computer Association, the local market for ERP software was forecast to grow to VND700bn (US$46.3mn) in 2010, from
VND700bn (US$46.3mn) in 2010 Government support for ICT development should provide a
framework for growing utilisation of software in both public and private sectors
Over BMI's five-year forecast period to 2016, the Vietnamese enterprise software market should offer
opportunities in many sectors While management software remains at less than 10% of the total software market, basic applications such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) and accounting are finding
increasing popularity with the business market There is a growing emphasis on cost efficiency as
enterprises look to enhance productivity through automating these and other functions
Cloud services adoption is expected to accelerate over the next few years, after recent pilots scheme were deemed to have been successful An increasing number of Vietnamese companies have shown an interest
in and willingness to use cloud services The government has also got involved in encouraging the
development of this business model in Vietnam, and in 2010 reached an agreement with Microsoft to cooperate on research Given the current focus on many businesses of controlling costs, the pay-on-demand SaaS model should grow in popularity and spread beyond the initial core application area of CRM
Meanwhile, new cloud computing offerings and increased competition in this segment should fuel further demand from end-users to utilise this technology In addition to cost savings, businesses will look to