... any information hereto contained Israel Information Technology Report Q3 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page Israel Information Technology Report Q3 2012 CONTENTS Executive Summary... Page Israel Information Technology Report Q3 2012 Country Snapshot: Israel Demographic Data 67 Table: Israel' s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 68 Table: Israel' s... and Israel Direct Insurance (IDI) Local IT leader Ness was © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 25 Israel Information Technology Report Q3 2012 among those vendors reporting a rebound in Israeli
Trang 2Business Monitor International
85 Queen Victoria Street
© 2012 Business Monitor International
All rights reserved
All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor
TECHNOLOGY REPORT Q3 2012
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2016
Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series
Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: July 2012
Trang 4CONTENTS
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Israel IT Sector SWOT 7
Israel Telecoms Industry SWOT 8
Israel Political SWOT 9
Israel Economic SWOT 10
Israel Business Environment SWOT 11
MEA IT Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Table: MEA Q312 IT Risk/Reward Ratings 14
IT Markets Overview 15
IT Penetration 15
Sectors And Verticals 18
Market Overview 22
Government Authority 22
Background 22
Government Initiatives 23
Hardware 24
Software 25
Services 27
Outsourcing 28
Industry Developments 29
Offshoring 29
E-Services 30
Israel's Digital Divide 30
Industry Forecast 32
2012 Outlook 32
Market Drivers 33
Opportunities 33
Table: Israel IT Industry – Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated) 34
Industry Forecast Internet 35
Table: Internet Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 35
Competitive Landscape 37
Macroeconomic Forecast 42
Table: Israel – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 44
Company Profiles 45
Ness 45
Hewlett-Packard 48
Matrix 54
IBM 57
Microsoft Corporation 62
Trang 5Country Snapshot: Israel Demographic Data 67
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 68
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 69
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 70
Table: Israel's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 70
BMI Methodology 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 71
Transport Industry 71
Sources 72
Trang 6Executive Summary
BMI View: Israeli IT spending is expected to reach US$5.8bn in 2012, up 2%, lower than previously
forecast, due to the global economic headwinds In Q112, several indicators suggested moderating consumer demand, but vendors still reported a solid trading environment for IT services across
industrial, government, defence and financial services segments The Israeli IT market should gain
enough momentum from key sectors to expand at a CAGR of 8% over BMI's 2012-2016 forecast period,
due to momentum from key segments
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: US$2.5bn in 2011 to US$2.5bn in 2012, +1% in US dollar terms Forecast in
US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but Israeli businesses are investing more to facilitate expansion and development
Software sales: US$1.3bn in 2011 to US$1.3bn in 2012, +3% in US dollar terms Forecast in US dollar
terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification, but device and data proliferation will drive
spending on customer relationship management (CRM), databases and business intelligence
IT services sales: US$2.0bn in 2011 to US$2.0bn in 2012, +3% in US dollar terms Forecast in US dollar
terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification but key segments such as government and defence will be a continued source of opportunities
Risk/Reward Ratings: Israel's score was 66.5 out of 100.0 Israel ranks first in our latest RRR table,
ahead of Qatar and the UAE
Key Trends & Developments
BMI forecasts overall solid growth for the Israeli IT market for 2012, despite a deteriorating
external economic environment Businesses will maintain a cautious attitude to IT investments due to uncertainty about a sustainable global economic recovery in key export markets There should, however, be growth in areas such as business intelligence, server virtualisation, mobile devices and cloud computing
New cloud computing offerings and increased competition in this segment should fuel further demand from users Particular areas of opportunity for cloud computing include banking and retailing as organisations in those fields look to save money on hardware investments
Businesses will, not only seek to make cost savings, but will look to boost efficiency and increase flexibility of response to customer needs
Trang 7 The Israeli government has launched various initiatives to increase computer and internet penetration The current rate of PC penetration, while high for the region, represents potential for organic growth Household penetration is estimated at around 75% Due to digital divide issues, Israel has around 600,000 children living below the poverty line and only 3% have internet or home PC access, compared with 90% in the top income group
Trang 8SWOT Analysis
Israel IT Sector SWOT
Strengths One of the most modern economies in the region, with a highly educated,
linguistically skilled workforce, and relatively low labour costs compared with most developed countries
Strong defence and government spending provides base for IT demand
Relatively mature IT market, with services accounting for an estimated 33% of spending in 2009 Despite this, the market for basic IT hardware and software is far from saturated
Strong political support, with the government having implemented many policies
to aid in the development, success and expansion of the IT sector
Weaknesses The recession at the beginning of the 2000s created a client mentality of
focusing on the bottom line, with enhanced services and customer market power adding to pressure on pricing and margins
Digital divide, with 3% of bottom-income group having home internet access
Opportunities Despite the financial crisis, the financial services sector, which accounts for
around 15% of spending, will have to spend on compliance with Basel II and other international standards, driving growth
Defence and government projects should be less sensitive to the economic downturn
Outsourcing, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and applications management likely
to grow fastest out of IT services, with particular opportunities in financial sector
Opportunities for partnership/investment in Israel's lively local IT company sector
Healthcare IT will be a growing source of opportunity
Threats Economic downturn and unemployment will lead to weaker consumer and
business sentiment
Other factors may affect business confidence, notably the security situation
The weaker local currency, and aggressive pricing, may continue to constrain growth and put pressure on margins
Trang 9Israel Telecoms Industry SWOT
Strengths Well-developed internet/broadband sector compared with regional peers
Liberal mobile market consisting of four operators
Mature market with strong take-up of value-added and 3G services
Weaknesses Mobile penetration rate of over 120% means growth in the mobile market has
slowed considerably and operators must look for alternative revenue sources
Lack of competition in all telecoms sectors
Regulator has been slow to license new services, such as WiMAX wireless broadband
Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) licensing and triple-play for Bezeq placed on hold, which could hinder prospects
Opportunities Emergence of rival operator HOT Telecom, made up of the main three cable
operators (Golden Channels, Matav and Tevel) to compete against Bezeq, could provide cheaper services
Introduction of number portability and the entry of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) to the mobile sector could shake up competition and drive down retail prices for consumers
Threats Continued interconnection tariff reduction could have a devastating effect on
Trang 10Israel Political SWOT
Strengths Despite corruption allegations against some officials and members of
parliament, government members are still some of the most accountable in the region
Elections are for the most part free and transparent, ensuring that a broad spectrum of political views are represented within government
Weaknesses The protracted conflict with the Palestinians means there are persistent security
risks, although violence in the West Bank has been reduced significantly
Strategies to minimise or end the conflict are domestically divisive
Frequent change to the composition of the coalition government often leads to policies becoming fragmented or significantly diluted
The fallout between Turkey and Israel, caused by the Gaza flotilla incident of May 2010, has meant that Israel has lost a key Middle East ally
Opportunities A warming of relations with Greece has given Israel the ability to engage in
military exercises over a larger geographic area
Threats The victory of Hamas in the 2006 Palestinian elections, its subsequent takeover
of the Gaza Strip, and Israel's military incursion into the territory in December 2008/January 2009 has added to uncertainty Finding a lasting solution poses a dilemma for Israel, which has previously said it will not talk to the militant organisation
The construction of the West Bank barrier and the continued home-building in some West Bank settlements antagonises the Palestinians and stands in the way of the peace process
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's refusal to give up his country's nuclear programme raises concerns that nuclear weapons could be used against Israel in the future
Trang 11Israel Economic SWOT
Strengths The policy framework has stabilised in recent years with fiscal deficits brought
well under control
The workforce is highly educated and skilled
The country's close ties with the US provide it with substantial financial assistance for economic and military ends
Weaknesses The main downside risk to the economy is the security situation A sharp
deterioration can have an immediate impact on domestic confidence, tourism receipts, the exchange rate and foreign investment
The economy is highly exposed to that of the US, in terms of exports, investment and remittances
Opportunities In the long term, rising levels of employment will underpin private consumption
Threats Israel's energy supplies are not stable at the moment – the Egypt-Israel gas
pipeline has been targeted frequently in 2011, forcing the country to buy more expensive fuels from alternative sources
Competition from emerging Chinese and Indian producers of high-tech goods and polished diamonds, as well as sluggish growth in the eurozone, could undermine demand for Israeli exports
Trang 12Israel Business Environment SWOT
Strengths The business environment is supported by sound infrastructure and
communication networks, as well as transparent legislation
The banking system is one of the most sophisticated in the region, and offers a wide range of both consumer and commercial credit products
Weaknesses Historic political instability increases the risk premium of investment in Israel
Some limits on repatriation of capital exist and there are constraints on foreign investment in the high-tech sector
Opportunities Corporate tax rates, at 25%, have not increased markedly as a result of social
protests in 2011
The Qualified Industrial Zone agreements with Jordan and Egypt boost the potential for trade
Threats Strike action has proved extremely disruptive to the business environment over
the past two years
The parliament approved a plan to increase the country's oil and gas royalties, which could reduce energy profits in the future
Trang 13MEA IT Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI's Q312 update to the Middle East and Africa IT Markets Risk/Reward Ratings contains changes
from our previous update, driven mainly by IT Market and Country Risk factors The ratings reflect our assessment of key growth drivers and risks to outlook in the IT markets of the 11 countries in our regional coverage
The information and communications technology (ICT) sector is a key focus of most countries in the region, firstly as a key part of their diversification strategy away from hydrocarbons, and secondly
because of the growth of ICT services globally and the increasing integration of IT services with other industry verticals In addition to governments' strategic view of the ICT sector, we expect increases in disposable incomes in the region, following public sector wage rises to drive growth in the consumer segment of IT markets across the region
Israel retains top spot on our RRR table this quarter following a slight increase to its aggregate score from
66 to 66.5 The country has one of the most developed IT markets in the region, reflected by household computer penetration of more than 75% and significant government and military expenditure on IT projects Israel's well educated population, strong policies for IP protection, stable political environment and developed telecoms infrastructure also make it an attractive location for global IT players to site key R&D and production facilities
Qatar moves into second position this quarter, displacing the UAE which drops to third place, following changes to its Country Risk rating and an upgrade to Qatar's IT Market rating We downgraded Qatar and the UAE's Country Risk scores this quarter from 76 and 72.7 to 69.7 and 67 respectively, to account for the likely slowdown in economic growth because of the downward pressure on crude oil prices driven by economic crisis in Europe and a possible slowdown in China However, an upgrade to Qatar's IT Market score, as a result of strong demand for IT products and services in that country, led to a marginal net gain its aggregate score this quarter
Kuwait retains fourth place despite a slight decrease to its overall score this quarter The sharp increase in
government expenditure in 2011, which BMI expects to continue into 2012, provides a favourable
platform for strong demand for consumer and corporate IT products and services However, the country continues to be held back by a relatively small population and, consequently, a small-sized consumer market Bahrain, which drops to seventh from fifth in this quarter's update, also faces similar limitations
to its IT market potentials Bahrain's IT Market score of 26.3 is considerably lower than the regional score
of 30.7 The heightened risk in Bahrain's political environment, with the likelihood of continued government protests in the short term, also led to a downgrade of Bahrain's Country Risk score this
Trang 14anti-Saudi Arabia and Turkey moved up one place each into fifth and sixth positions, following Bahrain's slip Both countries boast large populations, strong demographics and better performing economic growth compared to many of their neighbours There have also been significant investments into the telecoms sector in both countries, a development we expect to sustain demand for IT services
Oman moves up one place into eighth position on our table this quarter to displace South Africa which drops one place into ninth There is no change to Oman's aggregate score from last quarter, but South Africa's IT Market score is downgraded from 47.3 to 44.9 to reflect the effect of slower economic growth
on demand for high-value IT services, especially in the consumer segment That said, we note that South Africa's large population and developed industry verticals such as financial services and retail make it an attractive market for IT services
Egypt drops into last position this quarter, although there is no change to its aggregate score The country was leapfrogged by Lebanon whose aggregate score was boosted by an upgrade to its Country Risk score Lebanon has some advantages in the form of its geographical location and youthful population However,
we retain our view that sustainable growth in the ICT sector depends on political stability and the
implementation of necessary reforms such as liberalisation of the telecoms market to drive growth Egypt also has the potential to be a regional IT hub considering its large population size, young and educated population, an expanding middle class and geographical location However, the ongoing political crisis in the country is undermining its potential Perhaps a successful transition to democracy after presidential elections in May/June 2012 will provide the much needed stability to drive growth and investments
Trang 15Table: MEA Q312 IT Risk/Reward Ratings
Limits Of Potential Return
Risks To Realisation Of
Returns
IT Market
Country Structure Limits
Market Risks
Country Risks Risks
IT Risk/
Reward Rating
Regional Ranking
Previous Ranking Israel 51.00 100.00 68.15 55.00 67.69 62.61 66.49 1 1
anticipated returns Source: BMI
Trang 16IT Markets Overview
IT Penetration
The Middle East region divides into two
groups in terms of information society
development In the first group are richer
and more technologically advanced
countries, such as Israel and the UAE,
where internet penetration is relatively
high and many households have access to
broadband services In more emerging
markets such as Egypt, on the other hand,
computers remain a luxury for many
Across the MEA region, the number of
internet users is expected to grow
significantly South Africa is projected to
advance the most in percentage terms,
with penetration rising from about 16.3% in 2012 to 24.1% by 2016 (note: figures may vary elsewhere in report due to updated forecasts after time of writing) Egypt, where the second biggest increase is
forecast, will have 55.4% penetration by 2016, up from 40.1% in 2012 The UAE is one of the most ready states in the region, with internet penetration seen as reaching 78.1% within the forecast period Growth in the number of internet subscribers is also forecast to pick up in Saudi Arabia, with a 21% increase between 2012 and 2016
e-Similar contrasts are apparent in relation to broadband penetration, where mobile broadband is now a major driver of overall penetration, due to 3G mobile service roll-outs across the region, and a
proliferation of mobile connectivity devices such as smartphones and tablets Broadband penetration, which currently ranges from 5.8% in Kuwait to 41.4% in Saudi Arabia
Government initiatives are afoot in most places, ranging from wireless broadband in Dubai to plans to
deploy optical fibre extensively in countries such as Kuwait BMI's broadband penetration forecasts have
been downgraded in many markets as a result of the economic downturn, with Saudi Arabia's 55.5% penetration see as the highest in 2016 Israel is projected to reach 28%, ahead of Qatar with 26.6%, the
second and third highest respectively among the countries covered by BMI
Internet Penetration
Per 100 Population
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI
Trang 17Internet and broadband penetration growth will receive boosts from continued efforts to liberalise
regional telecoms markets Moves towards telecoms market liberalisation have continued in Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries Broadband penetration has become a driver of PC ownership in some segments, due to the growing variety of multimedia and communication services available
There is also considerable PC market
growth potential as the current level of
computerisation is estimated at less than
50% in every country in the region PC
penetration in Egypt is estimated at
around 10% and is forecast to rise to
above 20% by 2016 In Saudi Arabia, PC
penetration is currently above 25% and
should increase to around one-third by
2016 Even in Israel, where household
penetration is estimated at above 75%,
there is potential for further growth
Government initiatives will drive more
use of computers in education In 2011,
the Egyptian government announced a EGP150bn new school building programme, which should provide opportunities for IT suppliers Around 25% of Egypt's schools are not equipped with computers In the UAE, the Ministry of Education is leading an initiative to supply computers to state schools Meanwhile, the South African Department of Education has announced a target of rolling out laptops to all school children in the country by 2014
Governments in the region have also allocated significant budgets for e-government development The Qatari government has outlined plans to invest QAR6bn (US$1.6bn) in information technology and IT services as part of its ICT-2015 strategy The Kuwaiti government plans to spend US$104.3bn over the next four years, in an attempt to diversify the economy away from oil and boost the private sector Egypt aims to make 200 government services available soon online through a new e-government portal
Meanwhile, Qatar's e-government programme and Hukoomi e-services portal will continue to drive investment in computer hardware across government agencies and client organisations South Africa's IFMS (Integrated Financial Management Systems) project manages the evolution of government IT systems to support interoperability and e-government service development
Broadband Penetration
Per 100 Population
f = BMI Forecast Source: BMI
Trang 18vendors are capitalising on is the United Instalment Scheme (USI) finance option, which makes quality notebooks available to SMEs Qatar's ICT governing body, ictQatar, has made increasing SME utilisation of IT a key policy objective However, access to credit remains a barrier for smaller companies
high-in Egypt and elsewhere
Drivers are increasing economic
diversification and strong spending from
non-oil sectors such as government,
finance and enterprise By 2016, this
should be more evident, with IT's share
of GDP rising in many countries In
Saudi Arabia, for example,
government-driven investments in transportation,
property constructions and water and
power plants will drive opportunities for
IT vendors
An expected recovery in population
growth underpins our IT market growth
projections for markets such as the UAE
and Kuwait, which saw an exodus of expat workers in 2009 In particular, strong positive population growth gives Saudi Arabia an advantage, with growth expected to reach 10% by the end of our five-year forecast period
Across much of the MEA region, youthful population demographics and rising PC penetration will drive growth An evolving retail landscape will also help to stimulate sales, with the traditional domination of smaller stores having been diluted by the appearance of multi-brand electronics sections in hypermarkets and mono-brand stores in malls
In many Middle Eastern states, the hydrocarbon sector remains a key one for IT spending Expected increases in both oil output and prices should provide support for higher IT budgets in this vertical
Regional sector giants such as Saudi Aramco and Kuwaiti leader KNPC are investing in IT to enhance
operational efficiency, optimise cost structures and boost overall business agility
The banking sector will also remain a major user of technology as banks and other financial services organisations look to become more efficient and launch new services Telecoms is another growth area for technology spending, as service providers look to exploit the potential for increased revenue
generation from new services by implementing tools that facilitate more personalised offers to customers
Market Size
As % Of National GDP
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI
Trang 19In the wake of the political unrest that
swept the Arab world in the first half of
2011, government spending is expected
to help address economic concerns that
may have underpinned dissatisfaction in
some cases To help maintain social
stability, the Saudi government has
announced US$93bn in handouts,
including wage increases, which should
boost consumer spending on electronic
items such as PCs However, a further
deterioration of political stability in
countries such as Egypt could potentially
cause disruptions to distribution networks
and have an impact on outsourcing
operations
The highest growing IT market in the MEA IT market over the forecast period is expected to be Egypt, with compound growth of 89% for 2012-2016 There is room for considerable growth in the country in the next few years, given the current low level of computerisation, which is much higher in the business
sector than in the population at large BMI highlights strong growth for GCC countries, including Qatar
(47%), where the decision to award Qatar the 2022 FIFA World Cup is expected to fuel a wave of
investment in IT products and services Government spending, investment and private consumption growth are all expected to trend upwards in 2012, as Qatari real GDP growth reaches a projected 28.6%
in US dollar terms Other high-growth opportunities are forecast to include the UAE (72%) and South Africa (66%)
Sectors And Verticals
Hardware will continue to dominate MEA IT spending as the number of personal computer users rises steadily over the forecast period This will be driven by growing affordability, government initiatives and the popularity of notebooks There could be a boost from computer hardware tenders delayed as a result
of the economic situation
Sales of notebooks are growing roughly twice as fast as desktops in many markets In 2011, Saudi
retailers reported a surge in demand mobile PCs, in many cases fuelled by price cuts PC sales were stronger than previously expected, although this growth was driven in part by promotional price cutting
IT Market Compound Growth
2012-2016 (%)
Source: BMI
Trang 20The notebook sector was the main factor driving retail segment growth across the region in 2011 as consumer sales felt the benefits of aggressive channel promotions Notebooks are expected to account for more than 60% of total sales over the forecast period However, in a few markets such as Egypt, desktops still account for around half of the total PC market in volume terms
Much of the growth of notebooks has been driven by price cuts In 2011, average notebook costs dropped
by up to 25% for some models Many notebooks now retail in the price range US$544 to US$680, down from an average price of around US$800 before the financial crisis The launch of notebooks based on the Android operating system has supported this trend, as Android netbooks are often cheaper than Windows
7 ones
However, the growing popularity of tablets is expected to provide a growth area in 2012, after the product
category enjoyed a surge of popularity in 2011, fuelled by Apple's iPad Tablets will be a growth area
across the region in 2012, and the devices, originally seen as primarily for consumers, are forecast to experience increasing take-up in the business segment However, the popularity of alternative
connectivity devices such as tablets and smartphones has undercut replacement sales of notebooks
Government programmes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have made low-price computers available in easy instalment payment schemes Government investment in education and e-services will mean desktop purchases for schools, colleges and government offices
Spending on software as a share of total IT spending is as low as 14% in Egypt and below 20% in a majority of MEA markets As the regional economy improves, more investment is likely to be driven by
Market Structure
% Of Total IT Market
f = BMI forecast Source: BMI
Trang 21plans for expansion, rather than merely to realise cost efficiencies Similarly the growing regional
ambitions of South African companies will be a factor driving corporate spending on software in that market,
Across the region however, many businesses remain focused on costs, and software vendors will pitch efficiency gains from virtualisation and cloud computing, as companies focus on return on investment
2012 should, however, see a boost from systems upgrades deferred from 2009 Migrations to the
Windows 7 operating system and new Intel core technology could trigger a new cycle of hardware
upgrades, although much will depend on business and consumer confidence Around half of Saudi
businesses still use computers based on the Windows XP operating system Meanwhile, about one-third
of computers in the UAE are still based on the Windows XP operating system
BMI predicts plenty of room for software market growth over the forecast period as numerous untapped sectors still exist Key verticals will include telecoms, finance, retail, healthcare and the public sector There has been growing demand in the market for applications tailored towards particular verticals SMEs are likely to lead spending growth, with manufacturing and trading firms seeking efficiencies by making the transition from manual environments to full automation of back-office systems Customer relationship management (CRM) will be a growth area, and other high-growth categories are set to include business intelligence, storage and security products The security software market is very important throughout the region as increased investments in IT hardware over recent years are now driving spending on secure content management technologies
There are some challenges for the regional software market One key issue is that of illegal software: across the region, up to 80% of software is counterfeit Another important factor is low income, including the high costs of operating systems such as Windows, which has led to activity to promote open source in
countries such as Egypt, championed by IBM and other vendors
Over BMI's five-year forecast period, software-as-a-service (SaaS) business models are expected to provide a growing opportunity for vendors, with increasing demand for industry-specific applications Government adoption will also be a key driver in many countries, such as the UAE where cloud services are central to the emirates government's e-government strategy for the next three years
BMI predicts that demand for IT services will grow strongly during the 2012-2016 period The regional
IT services market is dominated by demand from oil and gas, government, finance and telecoms sectors, which many markets account for more than half of total spending In markets such as Saudi Arabia, most enterprise application spending still comes from segments such as oil and gas and banks However, more projects are expected in segments such as education and health
Trang 22Currently, IT services' share of IT spending ranges from around 25% to 37% in the MEA countries covered by BMI Support and maintenance account for around one-third of spending on IT services, but demand for more complex services has increased, with large outsourcing deals in the UAE, Israel and elsewhere There is also demand for services such as hosting, facilities management and disaster
recovery
Vendors have reported an evolution in demand for services, with a shift away from the dominance of product implementation and installation to greater interest in managed services, value-added services, facilities management, hosting and business continuity and disaster recovery Even in less mature markets such as Egypt, larger customers are becoming more demanding in terms of their IT expectations
In both the private and public sectors, MEA organisations are looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing services such as SaaS and infrastucture-as-a-service (IaaS) Surveys suggest that cloud spending was an IT investment priority for around one-quarter of MEA businesses in 2011 Cloud
services are central to the UAE's e-government strategy for the next three years In 2011, Kuwaiti data
communications services providers such as Zajil signed agreements with partners to expand their
cloud-based product offerings Particular areas of opportunity for cloud computing include government, banking and retailing as organisations in those fields look to save money on hardware investments
Cloud computing is also becoming viable in markets such as South Africa due to improved and cost bandwidth availability
Trang 23lower-Market Overview
Government Authority
Government Authority Ministry of Science and Technology
Minister Daniel Hershkowitz
The Ministry of Science and Technology has undergone numerous name changes and received its current name following the election of Binyamin Netanyahu's government in March 2009
The ministry's responsibilities include forming a national science and technology policy, coordinating research areas and technological analysis and organisation
The main priorities for the ministry are as follows:
Establishing a national policy and priorities for R&D;
Developing scientific and technological infrastructure;
Establishing and strengthening foreign scientific relations;
Participating in the establishment of research centres, including regional R&D centres;
Participating in the development of scientific and technological human resources;
Increasing awareness of science within the public, especially the youth of Israel;
Developing digital infrastructure (facilitating access to information);
Consulting the government and its offices in the area of science and technology
Background
All major vendors have a direct presence in Israel, employing substantial numbers of staff For example,
IBM has its only IBM Global Services regional subsidiary in Petach Tikva and employs around 2,000 staff at its Haifa Labs and various IBM facilities in Rehovot and Jerusalem HP has as many as 4,000
Trang 24employees and offers services and support through its subsidiary HP-OMS Other vendors such as Oracle and EDS also have a sizeable presence
Foreign direct investment (FDI) first started to play a key role in Israel's economy in the mid-1990s as the country's high-tech sector underwent a rapid expansion As well as the opening up of the financial and telecoms sectors, the high-tech sector succeeded in attracting large FDI inflows The government's policy made foreign high-tech companies eligible for government grants covering 38% of the cost of new research and development facilities Today, Israel has more offshore R&D centres of US high-tech companies than any other country
Local companies also have a significant presence in the Israeli IT market, with seven of the top 10 IT
services firms being Israeli Major players include Matrix, Ness Technologies and Malam Group, with
Israel typically accounting for 40-50% of their revenue.
Government Initiatives
Gov@Net – Government intranet
A cross-government intranet planned to connect more than 80 governmental networks and hundreds of institutes The implementation will create the largest Israeli IP-VPN The project will allow efficient internal communication and resource sharing
Mercava – Government ERP
Mercava is the largest ever IT project implemented in Israel It will gradually replace the assortment of unique legacy systems currently operating in governmental bodies with a central, unified enterprise resource planning (ERP) system running on SAP system software
This project will create a unified language for cross-government activities
Government EIP
This project is intended to promote enterprise portals within the government Since a cross-government portal will be based on information received from the different bodies, the first step involves the construction of a ministry-level portal This portal will draw information from Merkava, ministry-specific operational systems, and intra-government shared resources
Tehila – Government ISP
The Government ISP project has been operational since 1998, providing essential infrastructure for public-government communication
To date, 60% of the governmental bodies have voluntarily joined the project
Shoham – E-commerce infrastructure and service
A central e-commerce service allowing citizens and companies to access a uniform interface to carry out a variety of payments and purchases, including the payment of taxes, fees, fines (VAT, vehicle and driving licence fees, traffic fines), and the purchase of tangible goods (government publications) The service processed more than ILS250mn in its first year
Lehava project
Group of initiatives to help close digital divide
Trang 25Hardware
The Israeli computer hardware market, including desktops, notebooks, servers and accessories, is
forecast to reach US$2.5bn in 2012 The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7% over the forecast period to reach US$3.3bn in 2016, higher than previously forecast
BMI upwardly revised its Israeli PC market growth estimate for 2011, when the market consolidated
recovery from the impact of the economic slowdown, which hit consumer demand for electronic goods Businesses are now investing more to facilitate expansion and development, rather than purely to realise cost efficiencies, but there should be growth areas However, lower average prices have meant that revenue growth in most segments has lagged shipments
As the Israeli economy's growth cools in 2012, enterprises will remain cautious about capital spending, but there could be a boost from computer hardware tenders previously delayed because of the economic
situation Migrations to Microsoft's Windows 7 operating system and new Intel core technology should
stimulate new cycles of hardware upgrades, although much will depend on business and consumer
confidence In 2010, Israeli computer shipments recorded a strong recovery, which continued in 2011, but
a moderation is expected in 2012
Consumer spending is also expected to moderate in 2012, having been the main growth area in 2011 The current rate of PC penetration, while high for the region, represents potential for organic growth
Household penetration is estimated at around 75% Digital divide issues mean Israel currently has
600,000 children living below the poverty line, only 3% of whom have internet or home PC access, compared with 90% in the top-income group The Israeli government has launched various initiatives to increase computer and internet penetration, including Computer for Every Child, Window to Tomorrow's World, Tapuah (the Israeli Society for the Advancement of the Information Age) and others The level of support, however, has been criticised by some industry insiders as too low Meanwhile, there were signs
in early 2012 of a consumer slowdown, although low unemployment and inflation, and a wage rise for public sector workers, should prevent this from being too severe
The Israeli IT market is relatively mature, but hardware still accounts for around half of the total market, excluding communications hardware Notebooks are the fastest-growing segment of the market, although
as recently as 2008 desktops still took around two-thirds of unit sales In 2010-2011, however, the share
of desktops declined precipitously, due in large part to demand for non-PC form factors such as
smartphone and tablets
This trend of mobility is expected to continue over the 2012-2016 forecast period Despite its declining share of sales, however, the desktop sector is still significant, largely due to business and government
Trang 26competition from form factors In particular, smartphones from Palm, RIM, Apple and other vendors are
being offered as alternative connectivity solutions and often include a Wi-Fi option
Tablet notebooks first emerged as a significant market factor in 2010, spearheaded by Apple's iPad In October 2010, Apple released the Hebrew-compatible version of its operating system for the tablet, which was expected to boost imports of the device to Israel Previously Israeli users of the iPad were obliged to pay for a less than optimal Hebrew keyboard application
In August 2010, iDigital, the Israeli importer of the iPad, had announced the availability of the device for
sale in Israel, but, as of October 2010, the cellular companies were still not offering the device The Israel Ministry of Communications had cleared import of the Apple iPad for Israel in April, after previous concerns that iPads were in non-compliance with Israeli wireless standards One Israeli chain was selling the iPad at a retail price of ILS3,800, or around US$1,000, about twice the price of the device in the United States
Other vendors are expected to follow Apple in releasing net tablet devices, which have a form factor between the size of a smartphone and a netbook Tablets are being designed to appeal to consumers who find a smartphone inconvenient for consuming video media or surfing the web, but for whom a netbook is still too big or heavy Tablets are expected to be significantly more expensive than smartphones, but, despite a previous mixed record with this form factor, are seen as a growth area
Another area vendors will watch is the e-reader market Like iPads, Kindles are not yet readily available
in Israel, but that situation is expected to change Currently Amazon, Barnes and Noble and Apple do
not permit the use of an Israeli credit card at their online bookstores However, Amazon now offers Israeli consumers the ability to download content directly to their PC or Kindle using an Israeli credit card
Software
Israeli software spending is projected at US$1.3bn in 2012, up 3% year-on-year The packaged software segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 10% over the forecast period In 2011, the pick-up in demand for systems and upgrades continued in both public and private sectors, with investments by government organisations such as the Israeli Ministry of Defense and Israeli Police, and from utilities
leader Israel Electric Company
Despite the uncertain global economic outlook for Israels export-based economy, opportunities for software vendors continue to exist across a range of sectors from government to energy, financial
services, telecoms and utilities Large organisations investing in SAP-based systems included the Meitav Regional Water and Sewage Corporation and Israel Direct Insurance (IDI) Local IT leader Ness was
Trang 27among those vendors reporting a rebound in Israeli market revenue growth, with the company's
annualised revenue growth increasing in each quarter
Meanwhile, the SME segment, the mainstay of the Israeli business sector, has emerged in recent years as
an important growth area for enterprise systems Spending on enterprise solutions should continue to grow steadily, with reviving or emerging areas of opportunity including security, CRM solutions and business intelligence However, in the current economic climate, vendors will continue to pitch the efficiency gains potentially offered by these applications
Migrations to the Windows 7 operating system should have a positive impact on 2012 sales despite business caution More than 50% of Israeli computer users are estimated to still be using the Windows XP operating system, and this represents a significant potential market, as support for XP will be withdrawn
by 2014
2012 should, in any event, see a boost from systems upgrades previously deferred as a result of the impact
of the economic crisis in public and private sectors Current areas of enterprise demand include
management of Microsoft systems and servers, as well as systems management, basic data management, firewalls, enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation and CRM CRM is a particularly buoyant area, while in H111 vendors continued to sign up new business intelligence customers
The security software segment is an important opportunity, potentially worth tens of millions of dollars Israel has become more aware of the growing threat and sophistication of cyber attacks and has been encouraging government and private sector organisations to take action Spending is likely to continue across all segments, with security content and threat management the current priorities
Given the current focus on many businesses of controlling costs, the pay-on-demand SaaS model has grown in popularity and spread beyond the initial core application area of CRM The economic crisis may have provided a lasting boost to the SaaS model, particularly as broadband penetration grows More vendors are looking for channel partners to help them offer cloud computing and rented software services
to local organisations
New cloud computing offerings and increased competition in this segment should fuel further demand from users As well as cost savings, businesses will look to boost efficiency and increase flexibility of response to customer needs Large businesses are most likely to put IT applications such as mail, phone systems and document management into the cloud However, enterprise applications that require a high level of customisation, or which are subject to regulatory or data-sensitivity constraints, are more likely to stay on premise
Trang 28In terms of verticals, the financial sector has been a mainstay of demand, with other key areas including defence and healthcare These three sectors are somewhat immunised against the consequences of the global slowdown Despite the current financial crisis, regulatory compliance and demand for new services will continue to drive IT spending by banks Vendors reported in Q110 that the key financial services segment had started to see demand recovery Similarly, defence spending on new systems is likely to be maintained given the current security situation
Software comprises an important part of Israel's industrial production and exports, with software exports
of US$3bn representing around two-thirds of the value of the entire domestic IT sector Almost all global vendors are active in the domestic market, selling licences alongside integration and applications services Global vendors control more than three-quarters of the market, with SAP in first place In the past, the Israeli SME segment was dominated by local software companies Now international players, including market leaders such as SAP and Oracle, are entering with appropriate software packages Microsoft is also designing a software package for this market segment
Services
The IT services segment is forecast to reach a value of US$2.0bn in 2012, and this is expected to grow at
a CAGR of 10% over the forecast period to reach US$2.9bn in 2016 In 2011, vendors reported a
continued flow of new projects in sectors such as government, financial services, homeland security and utilities Key sectors such as government and financial services had driven a pick-up in growth in
2010 after demand was hit by a slowdown in 2009
In H111, demand for IT services continued to be healthy, according to leading vendors, with new projects across public sector, industrial and financial verticals The defence and homeland security sector was also solid However, much will depend on confidence in the global economic recovery, particularly in key Israeli export markets Vendors have had to adapt to an environment where some projects are
commissioned more in response to immediate needs and with a focus on cost reduction
Defence and government spending represent a significant component of Israeli IT demand and have some immunity to economic vicissitudes In Q410, the Ministry of Defense awarded a US$6mn IT contract, and in Q111 the same department awarded a US$10mn contract for a new command and control system Among other smaller government projects in 2011, the Israeli Police awarded a US$6mn contract
Vendors reported that in 2010 demand had revived in the key financial services vertical, where new
projects included an US$11mn IT outsourcing tender by the First International Bank of Israel
Government agencies were also commissioning or extending IT contracts, including a US$2.6mn
outsourcing contract extension awarded by Israel's Ministry of Environmental Protection Meanwhile, healthcare and utilities were also generating outsourcing projects This continued into H111 with the
Trang 29award of a US$17mn deal by Israel Electric Company The development of a natural gas sector should be one driver of opportunities in the utilities vertical
The relatively robust economy and increased investment by several key sectors have driven recent
growth, but the number of new projects decelerated in 2009 owing to the economic slowdown Public sector spending helped to prop up demand, however Among public sector organisations tendering IT outsourcing contracts in Q409 were the Israeli Ministry of Immigration Absorption and the Israeli
Ministry of the Interior
Growth is expected to reach a higher trajectory in the second half of our five-year forecast period Key Israeli IT services spending verticals include the financial sector, where international regulatory
compliance and structural and market reforms have driven substantial IT investment The sector accounts for around 25% of total IT services spending, while the government accounts for another quarter
Along with defence, these two key sectors are likely to be a continued source of opportunity because the factors driving spending in each case are not particularly sensitive to the economic downturn The new administration will likely feel pressure to ramp up government spending to combat lower private
consumption and rising unemployment Another key area of opportunity is healthcare IT
One potential demand driver will be organisations looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing such as SaaS and Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) Particular areas of opportunity for cloud computing include banking and retailing as organisations in those fields look to save money on hardware
investments In 2011, vendors such as Alcatel-Lucent have continued to invest in new cloud computing
facilities in Israel, leveraging the country's expertise
While large organisations still dominate, SMEs have also been investing more and represent a growth opportunity Many SMEs are waking up to the need to compete through more direct investment in support and service infrastructures Similar factors are driving an increase in demand for managed services, with businesses reluctant to invest in internal IT capabilities, or deterred from doing so by a lack of available skills
Outsourcing
Outsourcing has become a bigger factor and was forecast to account for about 20% of IT services
spending, or at least US$320mn, in 2011 Key sectors for IT outsourcing include:
The military, with outsourcing deals such as that awarded to HP by the Israeli Navy for management of its IT infrastructure highlighting the opportunities there While the value of the
Trang 30 The financial sector is another leading vertical for outsourcing In 2006, a deal between First
International Bank of Israel and EDS Israel was the largest outsourcing contract in the Israeli banking industry and a milestone at the time Tata Consultancy Services' decision to open a
local branch also underlines the potential attraction of the financial sector, now benefiting from economic recovery and greater security
The retail sector offers further opportunities, with IBM Israel having a 10-year outsourcing contract with Clubmarket Marketing Chains The contract includes computer systems for the
supermarket chain's branches and point-of-sale terminals
Although Israel seemingly possesses many advantages as an outsourcing destination (in particular a technologically literate, linguistically skilled workforce and low labour costs relative to most developed countries), the country has failed to capitalise on these strengths in the past Aside from Israel's small size, another issue is security However, the government is now actively promoting Israel to multinationals, and there has been a spate of call-centre construction The work seems to be paying off, with Israel starting to emerge as a desirable location for packaged applications and localisation services
Industry Developments
IT is an important element of the Israeli government's socio-economic policy framework The National Economic Council submitted a policy agenda to the government that specified two main policy tracks to reduce poverty and achieve balanced growth The first track is expected to emerge as the main priority for the government The digital divide is both a symptom and an aggravator of relative poverty In May 2010, the Israeli Ministry of Finance launched a programme called 'Relative Advantage' to provide a boost to Israel's high-tech sector
IT will be harnessed to the second goal of achieving balanced, long-term economic growth Israel's software sector has long been one of the country's economic pillars and a magnet for inward
investment.The Israeli Association of Electronics and Software Industries has projected that the software sector will generate US$3.2bn annually by the end of the decade The government hoped the high-tech sector would generate US$3.0bn for the nation's economy by 2010
Offshoring
Israel is working hard to ensure it benefits from the global offshoring trend, which it sees as an area of potential Despite an often unstable political and security situation, Israel has marketed its IT skills with some success and attracted outsourcing operations from major IT corporations such as Intel, IBM and
Microsoft, as well as Motorola One factor in this, of course, has been incentives that the Israeli
government started to offer back in 2006, with subsidies of up to ILS1,000 per employee per month
Trang 31Several major public and private sector outsourcing deals have also highlighted the growing importance
of outsourcing
However, there are fears of a skills bottleneck In 2007, the government said Israel hoped to produce 10,000 engineers a year by 2010, up from the present graduation rate of 4,900, a small number by the standards of China, India and the US, but a big challenge for Israel The number of jobs in the sector rose
to around 61,000 in 2006, according to the government's Central Bureau of Statistics Engineering
salaries in Israel are about half those in the US but double those in India
HP The government chose Microsoft search technology to power its government services portal, gov.il
Meanwhile, the Israeli government was progressing with its plans to roll out smart ID card systems intended to cover the entire population With an urgent need for the government to update technology and strengthen authentication systems, the original target was to introduce 2.5mn smart ID cards In
December 2008, HP was awarded a contract to produce 5mn ID cards; however, it is yet to receive the go-ahead from the Knesset, which is deliberating over the passing of the biometric database bill The ID cards, set to cost Israel US$67.49mn, would use 'smart' identification methods involving fingerprints and digital photography
The 2005-2007 masterplan of the government's ERP project called for implementation in around 90 government units by the end of 2007 The project leveraged mySAP ERP (content delivery software) and had a focus on financial, logistics and human resource components Dubbed Merkava, the project cost an estimated ILS800mn since its launch in 1999
Israel's Digital Divide
It has been estimated that Israel currently has around 600,000 children living below the poverty line, and the Gini co-efficient has been estimated as among the highest of any Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) country A 2007 survey found only 30% of children living in poverty have internet or home PC access, compared with 90% in the top-income group Alarm at such statistics has helped to make tackling the digital divide central to the government's key policy goal of reducing poverty There is also an ethnic dimension to digital inequalities Recent research by the
Trang 32University of Haifa showed a consistent gap in internet access between the Jewish and Arab populations, with 72.5% of the former using the internet in Israel compared with 52.5% of the latter
In order to deal with the digital divide problem, the following measures have been proposed:
A senior minister for the high-tech sector should be appointed to coordinate activities currently carried out by various ministries The minister should prepare a master plan for government policy in the information industry
Regulations should be amended to facilitate rapid investments in communications, technological infrastructure, bandwidth and fast internet backbone
Massive investment should be made in the educational system for training information workers
Aid to be given to the less wealthy to make them part of Israel's information industry
Trang 33Industry Forecast
BMI projects that the Israeli IT market will grow to a value of US$5.8bn in 2012, lower than previously
forecast, due to the global economic headwinds The market is forecast to reach US$8.1bn in 2016 In Q112, several indicators suggested moderating consumer demand, but vendors still reported a solid trading environment for IT services across industrial, government, defence and financial services
segments
The Israeli IT market should gain enough momentum from key sectors to expand at a CAGR of 8% over
BMI's 2012-2016 forecast period, thanks to stable demand from defence and government sectors as well
as opportunities in verticals such as financial services and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
2012 Outlook
Spending on IT products and services is expected to moderate in 2012 In 2011 PC sales bounced back with modest single-digit year-on-year (y-o-y) growth However, growth momentum is expected to ease because of shifts in the global economic environment The Israeli economy continues to cool and sluggish external demand and weaker consumer spending are likely to weigh on headline growth throughout the year
BMI forecasts overall solid growth for the Israeli IT market for 2012 With IT spending highly correlated
wtih GDP growth, businesses will maintain a cautious attitude to IT investments this year There should, however, be opportunities for vendors around business intelligence and cloud computing Sales could receive a boost from computer purchases previously delayed as a result of the economic situation The move to mobility and new form factors such as tablets will help to drive demand in the consumer
segment, while to some extent undermining demand for traditional notebooks
Consumer spending continued to slow in Q112, after spending on durable goods such as PCs showed signs of falling off in 2011 Per capita consumption of durable goods contracted by an annualised 14.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q211 However, consumer spending should be supported by stimulatory fiscal spending as well as falling unemployment and low inflation and interest rates
Meanwhile, in 2011, vendors reported a continued pick-up in the flow of IT projects, with new large
tenders from the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Israel Electric Company Vendors reported demand
had revived in the key financial services vertical, continuing a trend established in 2010, when new
projects included an US$11mn IT outsourcing tender by the First International Bank of Israel
Healthcare, the public sector and utilities were also generating new projects or significant contract
Trang 34Migrations to Microsoft's Windows 7 operating system could trigger a new cycle of hardware upgrades
in 2011, although much will depend on business and consumer confidence More than 50% of Israeli computer users are estimated to still be using the Windows XP operating system
Market Drivers
The Israeli IT market has several positive fundamentals that should keep it in positive territory during
BMI's five-year forecast period Household computer penetration of around 75% offers potential for
further growth High internet penetration and growing broadband penetration are drivers for the retail segment, along with interest in multimedia and mobile computing applications and the new popularity of mini-computers
Per capita IT spending is expected to rise from US$764 in 2012 to US$1,059 by 2016 Spending by key
IT spending verticals such as defence and financial services are somewhat insulated from economic vicissitudes Vendors will target projects across a range of sectors from government to financial services, telecoms and utilities Regulatory compliance will continue to necessitate IT spending by banks and the financial services sector, which accounts for about 15% of Israeli IT spending
Another 50% of IT spending is accounted for by government and military projects, which will have a relatively low sensitivity to economic downturn compared with the commercial sector Government IT and digital-divide initiatives are important sources of opportunity for vendors, with recent projects
ranging from government e-services portals to healthcare The government remains determined to
preserve the country's status as a high-tech powerhouse and drive development of the knowledge
economy
While the defence sector is, and is expected to remain, the single most important vertical, investments by financial sector organisations should mean more large outsourcing deals Other sectors of opportunity will include healthcare and telecoms, as well as infrastructure, transport and the small office and home office sector
Opportunities
As a result of this activity, IT services are expected to display the highest growth over the forecast period Growing enthusiasm for outsourcing is putting Israel on the map, with some recent large tenders such as
HP's contract for outsourced management of the Israeli navy's IT infrastructure The economic slowdown
may reinforce this trend
Trang 35Israel is also emerging as a location for some business process outsourcing (BPO) functions helped by government incentives However, much depends on there being a sustained improvement in the economy,
as well as the overall political environment
One potential demand driver will be organisations looking for help in using efficiencies from cloud computing, such as SaaS and Infrastructure-as-a-Service Particular areas of opportunity for cloud
computing include banking and retailing, as organisations in those fields look to save money on hardware
While large organisations still dominate, SMEs have been investing more and represent a growth
opportunity Many SMEs are waking up to the need to compete through more direct investment in support and service infrastructures
Summary
Although the Israeli economy is vulnerable to continued global economic headwinds, BMI believes that
IT spending has sufficient strength in key demand verticals to maintain a positive trajectory The
hardware market is forecast to grow from US$2.5bn in 2012 to US$3.3bn in 2016, with PC sales
projected to rise from an estimated US$2.0bn to US$2.7bn Over the period, software spending is
expected to increase from an estimated US$1.3bn to US$1.9bn and services from an estimated US$2.0bn
notebooks) (US$mn) 1,853.2 1,726.3 1,832.8 2,013.5 2,047.0 2,243.4 2,412.0 2,550.9 2,715.6
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: BMI, ITU (Internet and broadband penetration)
Trang 36Industry Forecast Internet
Table: Internet Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: ITU, BMI
As with our fixed-line and mobile
telephony forecasts, we have revised
and extended our forecast for the
development of Israel's internet user
and broadband subscriber markets Our
new set of forecast figures runs to the
end of 2016 We estimate that there
were a total of 5.34mn users as of 2011,
giving Israel a penetration rate of
70.6% We expect steady, but slowing,
growth in the number of internet users
to continue for the duration of our
forecast, resulting in 6.52mn internet
users in 2016, equivalent to a
penetration rate of 79.7%
Meanwhile, owing to a lack of reliable data on the number of mobile broadband subscribers (specifically those subscribers who use USB dongles and data cards to access the internet via laptops, PCs and
smartphones), our forecast for the Israeli broadband sector is currently based on fixed broadband
connections only Data published by incumbent telco Bezeq suggests that the number of fixed broadband
subscribers had increased to around 1.874mn at the end of September 2011, up by 3.5% from 1.81mn at
the end of 2010 BMI estimates that, by the end of 2011, Israel's broadband subscriber base had risen to
1.893mn; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 25% and reflects full year growth of 4.6%
Industry Trends – Internet Sector
2009-2016
e/f = estimate/forecast Source: BMI
Trang 37Over the next five years ended 2016 we envisage average annual growth of 3.9% for the Israeli
broadband sector This will see the subscriber base reach 2.29mn subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 28% We expect the growing popularity of mobile broadband services to result in slowing demand growth in the fixed broadband sector Nevertheless, we identify several developments which will sustain fixed broadband growth for the duration of our forecast and beyond These include Bezeq's ongoing deployment of its fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTC), a development which is helping to drive capacity for its residential and corporate customers' broadband access Meanwhile, recent months have seen considerable reductions in the price of broadband tariffs being offered by the major operators Another development likely to stimulate growth is the introduction of LLU, which will give alternative operators access to Bezeq's network and will stimulate much greater competition