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Tiêu đề The Economic Crisis and Its Consequences for the Environment PPT
Trường học Sample University
Chuyên ngành Environmental Studies
Thể loại Presentation
Năm xuất bản 2023
Thành phố Sample City
Định dạng
Số trang 101
Dung lượng 6,43 MB

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which mukes comparison of ‘cages ricky, Furthermore, any elements ofthese packages ean enti ingot effets, which diminish the original environmental progress, eer aly speaking any stimulu

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The economic crisis and its consequences for the environment and environmental policy

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© noraen

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The economic crisis and

its consequences for the

environment and environ-

mental policy

lina Berghe! and Adriaan Perrels

TemaNord 2010:555

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Preface

“The purpose ofthe project The Eonnomle Crist and its Consequences fr the Environment and Environmental Policy isto proxide a review oF the fect of the crisis on environmental policy and onthe enviconment i the onli counties, followed by an analysis of warous posible poliy intr:

‘eons aimed a mii

Thisreporecontansaquck review of ypical mechanisms an effets ke

is based on literature survey a well as oa a quick sean ofrecer tems ia

ky sttistis regarding the econoay and the enviroamint ia Noni coun

g adverse effets,

wes, in as far as data ae eaily available,

The assesment was cated ut by two economic rescatcher ofthe Gov rumen! lsitte for Beonomie Research (VAT) in Helsinki, Elina Berghall and Adciaan Perrels The co-ordination on behall ofthe Nordic

(Couneil of Ministers was avied out by Main Vurelna and Magnus Ced

Af ofthe Finish Ministry ofthe Environment,

‘The theme is rather complex, whereas the station ofa sill uafoking sis Himits the availability of the most elevant dat, Othe other hand it was avery interesting sid rom which easily varius new research ideas oul be derived aswell as 2 umber of wpies and suggestions for possible Iypes of solutions fr forthe follow-up reading safeguarding of envinon mental poli goal

Ovvind Lone, Chaieman

“The Working Group on Enviconment and Eeonory

tuner the Nordic Counei of Ministers

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Summary

‘Some Nordic counties were hit more severely by the economic esis than

‘thers, owing to dfferem esonomic stares an ifesences in monetary Policies Recovery has bosn ar Besta, Considering the sources ofthe crisischanges a bank egultion, supervision and financial sector sk ma geet procedures and techniques ean heexpecte From easier crisescan

te inere hat hanking crises can be especially severe nd protracted Cx ses usually ako set ia mosion sigaifeant changes ia the suture of the

‘canomy ans institutions, which constitute both risks and opportunites,

Green stints plons

Many countiss,tactuding most Nordic count

allegedly have lược shares ot “ence sins thee stil packages, meaning ha # good part ofthe extra investments s meant for environmental purposes such as

‘mission abatement and energy saving However, ther + nơ comamonly accepted definition fo “green investment which mukes comparison of

‘cages ricky, Furthermore, any elements ofthese packages ean enti ingot effets, which diminish the original environmental progress, eer aly speaking any stimulus measure tht promotes sstnable investment and operations which go beyond a baseline wend could be eegaeded as preen”, Mare soneretel investments in energy efiiensy, renewable en

egy (th some peovisos), waste eduction and eceycting 38 well avaions|

“mission contol technology could be termed “green” From an environ

‘mental pitt of view the sustenance of sufcint levels of environmental

invesiments i the postersis years seems mare fmporant than the shot

‘eri peak in efforts 9 mitigate the economic criss, Careful selection and dosage of measures wil holp to ease tha recovery’ poli also promote

‘sustainable transi,

Fiscal post-crisi cay

‘Outright gren timelas programmes will espn any soon, bat foe the me

cu to long term changes in fiscal policies may he expected, whic can aso offer oppanunies foc “greening” public finance paliy A common Clement for most if ot all None coun is futher shit wars 30 called “ecological a efor taxing envzonmeatally Darden atv ties more and tasng labour income less Fiseal policy is expected ta tighten

considerably nll Nvtieeountis and elsewhere, a the ers led si nificant increases in public debt whereas the ageing of the population ads futher pressures, This creates possibilities o continue ecoligcal tax form

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Immediate environmental effects

Mos if no al rises tend to relieve the burden onthe environment inthe short wen, Tiss also tf he current rss, Fr example, greenhouse _s missions in 2008 in Norway went downy about 2% and in Fatand by about 105%, even though the rdustion in Norway maybe owing 4 ater

‘Wochaical) reasons The substantial reduction af grenhowse gas emissions

hs approximately halved the pie af emission permits inthe European Emission Trade System (EU-ETS) This price drop ia EU-ETS, together

‘sith diminished world coal prices, has incited electric power companies 0 use more coal, eg ia Finland coal use ease by aout 20% in 2009), As con Sequence apart of the sulden

will erode away in de following years, unless further policy measures ate taken or precipitated

showse gas etnssion reduction in 2008

Medium ten environmental ests

“The severity of the crisis in combination with structural change in easy industries is expected oalfet the medium tert development pathway of _tcenoune gas cnssions, despite the evsion of emission retin met Uioned bose, This means that the Nore counties which te commited 0 the EU 20-20-20 forthe year 2020 wil probably exporicnes a sgaiicant

elit as regands the get amount of emissions to he eae crn his

‘would mean some cli for abatement investment nceds, Applying a crude downscaling of IEA projections for Eutopearcnersy inveslment neds be

‘ween 2010 and 2020 to achieve long term emission reduction gous, the Nonlie annual investment aces woald be sonewhat under hilon ear

Pt year Yet the above mentioned easing of the 2029 emission eduction tasks implies a ection of the ana investment ned by few bún

‘ied alin eure,

lon term environmental effects

Long-tsen impacts could be profoundly adverse forthe etvironment duct

«severe slosiosn in environmental investments and environmental re:

search and development [tisespeetadiference eould he made between

“environmental ists for which policy importation isaleady well esta Tished (such as is dhe eas fr acidification) and polices foe which poliey packages are sill n various stages of development (e.g in ese oF 8 louse gas emission reduction athe ensphieation of the Bali Se) Con sidering tends in varias emission the frst mentioned ypc øf emiton

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mental policy areas (¢ well established implementation) seems to be less affected by economie eres On the ether hind fr the laller type a en oneal themes the polices have offen not yet succecded! in sutfeient decoupling ofthe emission tends rom economic development This means

‘hat for aot yet decoupled environmental effects dhe activity level of re search, development and demonstration merits he warranted by means of sppropriat polices

“The above considerations sre mainly base on the economic eysle and the expected low level of investment afer aciss in case of absence ofp icy intervention In addition it sould he sel tha rises ae often fo Towed by significant stuctual change, which caw tun aut tobe citer a blessing or conversely worse hun for the environment, depending dn

Public policies and business stateges ahead,

Green innovations ina globalising economy

Alin all Asi’ sole in determining global econome growth and sssoxiated missions and relative prices likely to get ever more important At te

‘ame ime these counties constitute growing expo opportunites fr green relucts and servos from Nore counties nts respect smelled Rea age of emissions by replacement of emission intensive production from [Nordic countries to high growth esononics with less stringent envison mental policies should be understo part af the globalisation proces, However dec eplacement of such produeton capacity is a exception instead prada disphacement of proton eat i Nordic counties by nowy invested capacity in growth markets fan issue The challenge i (0 censure that this nes eapacity embodies uptodate clean technology re

‘tably based on Node innovations, Ít remsins to be seen whether border

“ajvsimenttaxes for enunterig emission leakage problems would hea use Ful supplementary instrument in this contest Its implementation oi re ire ill amuitude of ressarch, regarding economic effet, generation of satbon footprint data aud international tadelgislaion and ade coals,

Penwising green innovation potential iw Nordic coun

IWiernationa comparisons None counties generally ate ghia eis of innovation effets In trm of eventual output (as compared tthe sizeable input there i sil scope for improvement af the effectiveness, which may

be patcslely important shen tate gets and eredit marks tighten,

“Thanks tothe substantial and sustained innovaionetons (and thanks Isnt sit domestic envionenetal polices) Nordic countries have tong

positions in «quis lage portfolio of environmental technologies ands vices For Nordiccountries ad theirexport potentials song ander proms

ig green penta service areas ae:

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Bionass inl, irextpnoduet)

Biomass production (sustainable orestyfasrculue

Biomass ose incineration, gasification, refining)

Enctgy’ saving technology

{na selection of industrial applications

in residential applications /hildings ~ optionally in combination with localised energy conversion / storage

ICT solutions

Smart energy metering

Monitoring and feedback

‘ther measurement / monitoring systems

Recycling

+ Waste water teatment

Safegaring continuity in green innuwotion and te marke wpe

The upkeep of eavinsomenta research, development and demonstration is not a straightforward boosting of support of ongoing efforts, bt should pi

lob ecomomy rather than sss hen

‘Considering the inited size f domestic mashes of sạch Nordic county

"

“onstaton joint efforts could enable significa positive seal eects,

‘course thereof venture capital could be better explited in development

‘and demonstration projets

In the nearhy future investment levels in envisoamenta techaology a0 lab for ahatement, an he expoeted Wo stay below engin peers base Tine expectations incase no action i laken which promotes coinuaion of

‘environmental invesiment levels In this respeet it merits 14 menin that now tchnologies wood asl applications, is by means of demoustration projets, oer to ge costs down ove lite, In ther words beter market Prospects for innovation in the shor eun can help o precipitate the redo tion of wit cost f ach techlagicsịn the medium @ ong term, hat

‘ane it is however essential that the promotion polcics stimulate the lower

ing af unit-ost,

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Sustaining emrirnamswtalpoley in a budget constrained world

In onder to ensure that environmental poliey goals ave abieved while ste tural change takes place and sats bets are ihtened various policy i struments may need revision In short he following sptations could be

‘onsidered(1) 1 reforms, with ever more stress on taxing comsumption of {natural esomces and oly Finite (temporary) vera increase of 8

‘ates, (2)abolshient ort least eduction of environmentally harmful a sides, (3) her quas-market inceaive secures (tradable contfcae sys terms performance dependent Yee bats") (4) radical improversentof ma

et information via monitoring and feedback services, certified labeling

fe and (5) combinations of he aforementioned options

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1 Introduction

“The financial vss as eapily vanes from the US bousing market o 8 fullbiown global economic ernis Among the many implication i wil have

‘he implications forthe envioanent ad for environmental poey deserve

"tention, The commitments cinate policy and to sustainable develop nent have become prominent plicy kaucs, which need new reflection in

‘he light of wha the economic criss may ental

‘rom an environmental point of view the economic crisis seems to ing

‘th opportune and heats In the short ran one ay expec some tempo

ty posive eects, notably in ems of enisions ta

level of economic aetvity ako eames along with «reduction in the con sumption of fossil fut Yet, this peri of rlvced emission feels may be

‘apected 10 last only a fw yeas, ltr which emissions wil art to grow gain environmental ivestment effonts ae slowed dawn det the sss,

‘he resumption in growth of environmental burdens may even be significa, This kind of concerns motivated miny governments abd specialists around the world to consider how econorni stimulus packages cou be made “ereen’, ke promoting envionment proection and sustainable de

‘lopment the othr had these stimulus packages are supposed wo have

‘only ited lifespan, wheres the economic eonitins for bot public and private investments probably imply 2 substantially reduced mance rine spice fr lang elfors in varies environmental poiey areas This prospect invites to consider what kind of policies could overcome these ob staces for envisaged inreased environmental policy etfs

The envionment policy challenges most notably regarding climate frag have © be dealt ith against a hackdrop of her major hangss

‘some of thei peciptated by the econo criss There is fr example the rising prominence the G20 group, which indies thatthe recovery from

‘th erisis wil eal more than just tightened policies in public finance wn reregalation inh Financial sector.‘ more profound reconsideration of the valuation of capital and resource prlutivity across sectors, aerative uses and countries ctl emerge To ths set of hallenges shold headed

th challenges and opportunites) caused by the ageing ofthe population i None and other OECD countries, which ean hưthet sean the financial

‘sustainability of he public budget and of households" purchasing poser The purpose ofthis pojcetisto review the eects othe cconomic crisis

‘on environmental poly and on the environ

necessary and posible, county specific situations in the Nordic cetscs

‘sil be discussed, This repoet ofthe frst phase is meant fora quick eview

‘of typical mcchanisms an effets Is based on a iterate survey ts Well son aguick scam of recent wend in key statstieseegaing the economy

ts the diminished

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le srses withthe aim to emily commonalities, Aer having deseribed inal effects and commonalities and differences of Nordic counties in hapice 2, chaper 3 handles recovery policies, ther do's and don'ts, an

‘overview of stimulus packages in various countries a8 well aa diseussion

‘ofthe “greenness ofthese packages and of the likely manoossring spase for aiubiious enviromental polices in he medium term given the expected Fiscal implications ofthe sis,

‘Whersas the chapters 2 and 3 discuss the economic impets and public sono mieramework conditions for ambitious environmental poiie, chấp" ter nies to ap evaluation ofthe challenges and possibilities from an env ronmental point view Implications for achievement of medium er

‘ange of the economy into a greener one The chapter looks atthe uptions

te ensure contination an reinforcement of green ination an inves men etfons Chapter 6 synthesizes the conclusions

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2 The economic crisis of 2008

2.1 GDP development in the Nordic countries

Up 10 2007 the Nowdic counties as a group tended to experience GDP _growth rates similar oF somewhat above the average ofthe eleven Euro

‘unites! (Eueo_I1 area: seefgute 1) Since 2004 lesland has experienced amore roller-coaster like GDP development The dispersion of growth rates across Nord counties grew in 2007 and 2008, seems to have grown even

‘more in 2009, ut isexpected to narow down in 2010 Since 2008 the Noe- die countries ~ a5 group ~ ae not any more performing Deter than the

‘uro_11 ara in terms of GDP growth ates The differences in the drop in {GDP growth sates in 2008 and 2009 across Nordic countries ean be larg tributed to diflerencs in economic structure, whereas aso differences in exeliange tte policy pla aol Leland constitutes a special ease du tos bunking esis which heavily aggravates the effects othe global economic

‘unique events, not captured hy seasonal adjustments, may cause quarterly data wo he suggestive of even deeper slumps or quicker recoveries, which The ti sethơ ben cúng set em 9e on Cự im)

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1 The ecomomy oth emma nd eirormet ply

may be momentarily accurate, but tll nothing about a ead In October

2009, various indications ofa rebound have already emerge, even though

‘there are also warnings that these might be temporary fees auebutable public timolus programmes Various observers even war of further or mew Aeclnes As igure 2 shows, mos countries stated to show sign of cov

in 2008, whereas the situation fr lelands til mare precarious Thais

‘to say many counties atleast se that thee economies are not or hardly any

more shrinking (i growth rates approach zero) Yet indeed its wo early

to judge whether recovery has set in on a more solid basis

Pyare? Quarers GDP volume got i rae the previ acer

2.2 The crisis build-up

A phenomenon called the Great Moderation, play arole in the Background

‘The Great Moderation refers oa significant dserease in volatility of GDP _rowtrates and other key indicators (inflaton, interest of OECD counties (CPR, 2000; van Ewijk and Teulings, 2009; Speer, 2009 which tok place inthe past 20 ~25 years Thre i sil a dehate going on about he si of)

‘the contribution of various Factors, seh as changes in memnetary polices, [nbour market polices ete (eg Spehar 200),

‘The consequence ofthe Great Modertôon was that over reictbiity improved and thereby the ides that isk cone, eg of ered stratcais, in

‘este portfolios and predets, had greatly alvaced In fact the under tanding and quantitative analysis of volatility on stock exchanges and of, key indicator id improve remarkably over the past decades On that bass now crediting structures emerged (ooably securitization), which one way o¢

another implied dissoltion ofthe rsks of ert products across an ever

‘expanding global eapital market (ECB, 2009, pp 7172) This development

‘was especialy sing in the US, a was fuelled bya iberl monetary pol

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iey which also meant that an ever larger att of hank activities were ot

“any more subjel to the (conventional Banking sevtor inspection systems

an solveney guidelines

In the years prot the vies, 2082 — 2006, monetary picy xa nơ sestitve especially inde USA, which edo Jow interest fates Trade su pluses in China and various ther countries nee invesrnent apport,

‘which the innovative American seal estate Financia sector was more than willing offer, Come ‘rat leas recent — monetary polity uses indie {ors such s inflauon and outpu ap" to monitor whether overheating of te conomy i occuring Asst pie rises are ot regard a inflation but 8

‘sc in valu, which in toa helpso reduce the Tikethood that postive output {gaps accu As aconsequencein most OECD countries monetary shots

id got see (enough) veason to tenuate the boom til), eg by raising

‘Thedissolation of sks tough multi-step repackaging of isk portfolios Hiectvely reduced the vanspaency of risk trctures apd sources When

ko conventional hanks around the world got mote involved inthe isk di solution process, by buying packages of varios kinds of derivatives) an intended bvepriat ws made To pohalising a US eet exis more fee fully han othervise would have heen case Nextt this msthoadologicl issue of risk management at hank level mu hacm-eeogomie lvel, gi

‘sly the imbalances anid apd movements on global eapital markets play an

‘importa

‘bubbles, which could grow to record sizes dc othe absence of trey lerventons by monetary authors

lin the sense that provided ample “Tul” fo eeating lage

2.3 Differences between the Nordic countries”

par from monetary policy, recent economic trends have been similar in Noli counties, Only the magni vary greatly, though al ne sal

‘open trade dependent economies Absit toa diffrent degre, all Nordic

‘outros have experienced eeanomie dont in 208 an even mere 50 jn-2009 Public consumption and — ny in 2008 — private consumption ad sill positive growth contributions, Invesnents export, imports, and

‘household consumption declined, even though the later component 10 lesser esten, Unemployment rates are climbing, the worst Being yot to come Norway hạ survived rather well, despite a allapsing oil pve whieh Intern recovered purty In coreat the economy of Iceland has plunged

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deepest Particularly, Faland, Denmark and Sweden have shifted © expan- sionary Fiseal pic inthe ace o therapy Worsening economic station, Ieclands scope fr pubic stimuli is virally nonexistent under its new debt hurd,

“The differences between the Noni countries garding the ining and severity ofthe shocks and the policy eesponses cin be mainly athe 10

‘wo aspects, ing: (1) the differences in monctary frameworks, and (2) the Lilerences in economic rueture

Countries ina monetary union (ike the Euro nea) and counties with

‘eggod curry may he confronted wih exchange rales tha may’ be 90

‘pmal for thir econowes On the oer hand the foreign euteney risk and

‘xchange competition effets ate eliminated for trae between counties

‘within & monetary union, Fora small econony wit a fieely Roating eur rene (eg like Sweden} ups and dons the ccunomy ae —parly cash ied by the coresponding apprceaton and depreciation inthe exchange

inland sin the euro zea this means that he xshioning potential f4 ating exchange rte only applies in elation okey val outside the ear area (notably the US doa) whereas ts noon barely Hoke tothe sate of the Finnish ccooomy, The Daaish sown is pouged to the euro” and here

‘ot constrain, macroeconomic polity choices For Nonway being not an

EU Member state, an inslea mach more dependent on the markets fore

tr ngu gas the situation s quite different (ego prices and dollar ex

‘hang ees fst Norway's monetary policy)

By and large it means that Sweden had the most manoeuvring space 10 have shocks ofthe criss cushioned i (automatically osurring) depres

‘he eters sufesed simply duc to lack of demand

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In counties without cushioning elects oF Mating exchange rates com pies are (even) keener an eating ost spall by Iemponry) ly of, Tabour time reductions, rczing salaries, te-In ira his threatens to reduce

"agerogate consumer demand, which in tar has a negative effect on compa nes only active on the domestic matket With some exceptions, such a ca porchaves, consumer demand sustained relatively well in Filan and Dew

‘mark Thereby suggesting that households citer reduced saving andor have

ca mainly on a few large expenses (durables, oid),

10 200 Finland was one of the worst performing counties in the euro

‘one and EU27, Exports of high-technology Finnish prac have tumbled and indusuial padaetion hà falen faster than anywhere cise in the 16

‘country eure zone, An explanation fr this s that Finish port contains 3 high share of investment gonws (44% in 2018) and incemediae products

‘8% in 2008), The demand far investment owls has collapsed, whereas incemediate products are very sensitive w price competition Unemploy rent in Filan may ise wp to 10% (MLE 2000),

‘Swesh firms have benefited fim a depreciating crown, which was

help t cep up imernational ost competitiveness 0 some exten Figure 3) The Sweils and Danish espe bases are generally more versed than

Jn other Nordic counties, Nonsthcless also Sweden is suering from the

‘lohalinvestnentshunip ast affects he county's investnent york setoy,

‘Also the Swedish car industry hasbeen sutering fom the evs

‘The Danish economy s dominated hy consuntee goods prodtion, 8

‘well as services, suc as logistics Thi sưuetue hy helped cúthienire te ris, since the demand forconstaner necessities deine es than demand For durables or tury goods Yet amids deflation and durables consump:

‘ion postponements, Denmark has ben force 1 Keep interest ies above the interest level of dhe Euro area owing tits euteaey’s peg to the eu,

‘This has fer deectrated ceonomic activity

Relaive wo other countries Norway appears to have survived dhe criệc rather wel In aition too snd elated products (68%), Norway expors fish products and shipping services, Whew ol prices collapsed, Norway's sovereign wealth fan serve 10 hur public finances al mini Now ays high standard o ving By Qetohor 2000, nao had deeined fom 3% levels ta ahout 2.5%, while unemployment expected peak at sho 1.56 in June 2010 In 2008 exports declined, but singe the summer oF 2009 silprices stared sorise again, Domestic pubic al privat consumption as

‘eboutdel anal GDP geowsth is expected resunie ia 2010 atthe lates Nowway's cereal han fecame the fist in Europ to ease its interest rate in

‘October 2002 (Barclays Capital, Euro Weekly, 30 October 2010)

In September- October 2008, Ieland plunged intoa vital state of bank supe, National ouput and income have dsclined strongly since the out

‘sak ofthe international backing crisis, am

others Becaue it enised & collapse of lelaic hanks In the preceding years Telanie banks were

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22 Theccammc cpr anit comgurce for hecriranmen and namely

‘walking fine fine in thet rapid leverage financed expansion oversets This

risky seategy collided withthe international banking ess eventual li

ing the Icelandic state to tur to international monetary support from

the IMP Asa consequence the private sector ereitrunch canby no means

‘be compensated hy adet sticken leslandcpublicsctor.lafation hasbeen

galloping despite đecining housing costs Despite the exehange rate col-

lapse the global vss as begun to take its tol om exports Move waditional

"lu resoure oriented products have regained importance in the export

‘ns, with fish (36%) and aluminium (42%) as principal export products in

2008, Asa consequence of all his, Iceland is eyeing EU membership and

joining ofthe euro zone to ensure fuute financial stability

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2.4 Experiences during previous crises

The Great Depression ofthe 19308

“The curenterisis represents a collapse comparable othe Grea Depuession

‘ofthe 1930s, Thoweh the depression spread via trade tothe Nore coun twes, the shares of forcign trade were lw compared io the current decade

Forinstance in Finland, the depression of the 30's was many fet because i coincided with increased timber market competition from Russia Largs evaluations rapidly reverse tpt decline ad song growth resumed, For

‘most countries, 1980 policies, such a increased potetioninm aggravated

‘he depression Keynesian type public demand fl growth poli ws ex: sed succesfully inthe New Deal of President Roosevelt inthe USA la the later pant ofthe thirties global recover: rom the depression tok oft with public procurement led devand elated in accelerating ce-armament ia response toe policies of Nazi Getmany The vi arnount of destvetion uring World War I, also in various Nordic counties, was followed by a

‘ast cepa resuery boom lasting anil the ety sat,

The Banking Crisis of the early 19008

Liberalisation and dere gelation stared in the 1980's, Though the marines

fo deepulation at asin Finland, rose rast ofl fom leakages inthe system the rise of supply’ side economics played a role The er released acumlted presses for tea aa franc mark idealist iginat ing in Angh-Saxon countries The new doctrine was crystallised in he so called Washington consensts, hich characterise the government role sound growth poiey According it the governmeat should abstain fom unecessary inererence and confine picy measires to securing a stable and sound investment climate, notably tough budget discipline and price stability, which pave the wy forthe wrest meron see section 22) In

‘hore days radical, such recommendations are now the roi inthe EU

‘OBCD and IMF These tendencies tured prevailing stv aginst ine vention in general, which together with belies inthe efficiency of markets played a important rlein the buld-upo the current risis (Bergh tl 2006) As ncated in section 2.2 some conection in those views seems to

be 0n le rise, no so much amounting toa reversal of heavy handed intr: vention or secring, but rather furtier development of monitoring tools as suppor foreclose preventive interventions (Spehtr, 2008)

Thẻ Nodi banking evs of carly 1990's zescmbled each ater Seong connie growth inthe 198s ested in oervating, Graal unbalance

‘etepultion of credit markets tad alto foreign curency denominated

‘debs aso inflaton and nai tt am stock marke bubbles, Investments and

‘consuniption ose rapidly, while budgets fied o accommodate with Gscal estat Liberalisation of te capital account bas inte major banking,

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financial and economic crisis an several accounts nhistory, noi recsny Ín

1097 Asia and 199% Russia There are similis withthe resent ers in Tesland otto mention the cuteat lohalcsis (Bergh et 2006)

In almost al rss sitatons, large devalations have heen the ee immediate remedy imposed Though they increase foreign debs servicing 0s theyll economies lu round atl export led growth 0 gran ally take of Finland suffered pertups the most, Because ts banking crisis

‘coincided with the collapse oft imaprtant export math, tha ofthe Soxiet

‘Union During the depression of 1990 1993, Finland's GDP declined by

136 (9"ein 1991 alone) and unemployment ros rom 3.56 w 18% (Figure 4} Nokia Corporation emerged as the new engine of growth tha pled long an cute new hh Iehnology electronics industry, an accelerated Fioland’s average esonoinie growth 1 second in the EU afer tetand

‘Berghall ct a 2006) Similarly ip Sweden Ericsson Mourished Yet i Sweden she induswial basis of the grotth was moe diverse han in Fouad Bursting ofthe decom babble

Allies have involved sigaificaa inflows of so-called “os money" tha seeks high ern fer the Asian 1997 eis tase the Dotcom buble

‘ofl technology stocks The ICT stock bubble represented a i

sis buts buik-up involved great technology Bele sini to criss solu ion beliefs today To RAED and other intangile inputs were sched in

‘ccasng retums to sale and sky-high growth opportunities This boom

‘othe bubble burst nth spring of 2000 a stock pices purmmeted Avcushout the world, Among the Nordic countries, Finland was the enost affected withthe largest hubbe Agerskow, 2009), Clea the esis” pact was compounded by the 9/1 tenors attack onthe New York World

“Trade Cente Subseaently, ho money was channelled othe US housing marks

2.5 Summary

‘Some Noni eountrios were hit more severely hy the economic eis than

‘others, owing to differea ceonomie sutures and diferenes in monty pulicies, Recovery has heen rather hesitant, Considering the sources of the

‘ss changes in bank epulation, supervision and financial sector sk ma

agement procedures ard techniques canbe expected: From cad

be inferred that banking crises can he especially severe al protracted, Ci

ss usually alo set in motion significant changes inthe structure of the

‘seonomiy al is nstuions hỉch cansitule bon risks and opportunites,

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3 Recovery policies and public finance

3.1 Lessons about recovery from previous crises

Accodig to Pisani For & van Potelsberghe (2009), prio crises Fina

‘Sweden Japan and South Korea ia de 1990's have ugh important essons that should he kept in nind when applying mee today Fs tere ay be

“apermanen lossin output, tough grt may reste, the ost born

‘ul fom long-term unemployment implies ewer get path at lest for

‘he ae ure) This eflsct has boc conlinedto apply to wider oun of iss experiences and ove long pero (Cen and Saxena, 2008; Reinet, and Rogott, 2008 fa Pisani-Ferey & van Poesbesshe, 200)

‘Secon the output loss can he sinimised with appropriate policy, Swe dns silt measures in ecaptalisation of vile hanks and nationalization

‘of insolvent ones enable a timely and relatively sioth transformation of

is economic stuctze, which accelerated productivity grow (or sone Hime), Incomtras the growth nace ot pest war Japan Was sie tase decade” because the prolongation ofthe banking tsi decelerated neces sary restructuring Pisani-Fery & van Pottelserghe, 2009), Pliey meas: ures should be directed at activation, while avoiding measures inducing &

‘permanent rection in Iahour supply sch as early retirement sehemes Furtermove, stimulus packages shouldbe “targeted, imely and iemporay” and be sealed back when recavery takes off (OECD, 20),

‘The packages should he education, novation and general

cente, Permanent labour supply eu, sich as carly retirement sehemes, Stoull be avoided, and eet constaned innovative growth Firms should be rortzed over large compunies in matare industries, while R&D support Should be countercyetial (sani-Feary va Potesbeeghe, 3009) .denhoor & Sten 12019 n the report the G20 Spring mestng of

2 m9, secommend investment i energy eiceney, sine its wplake is han pete various market failures, inching R&D forenergy elfciency while itdes nn crowd out private sector activity, The later assertion may be only

‘aid up tcertan extent of stimu, dhe oalarge outflow of building Work ino retirement without adequate replenishment by young workers (x

‘he casein Flan, The sme authors and ters z, ƯNEP, 3008) gi

recommend substantial green investments in energy an public anspor i Frasratue Foe hose options applies the same proviso a czars a “double dividend” of nore growth an! less essions, Too much stitnuks (fom & macro-economic poiat of view) would incur (exa} inflation and a grosing are of leaka! stimulus to foreign suppliers and foreign workers, Further

Trang 28

more sustainable wanstion ofthe economy i static lon ‘cum process

to which socalled green simuhis may contribute, bathe differences be

‘sicenchjetives between raustion aud stimulus shoul be well undeston

‘Small innovative manalcturng finn often have seed mae rom er ses than Larger firms, as it wes harder for thm wo find alternatives for tight

coed credit alte, These small inovaiv firms represent a important

‘oicnal for growth and industial renewal, Acooding to Pisani-Ferry &

‘an Pvtelsberghe (200), the procyclical nature of business RAD spending shouldbe countered by public suppor They emphasize the importance oF

hopelessly indeed companies at the expense of young innovative companies, Otherwise eave destruction doesnot reallacate

resources optimally (Pisani-Femry & san Pote-borghe, 2009), In praeiee however it may heditficul discern ig advance —herween single haak failure andthe collapse ofthe banking stem, Furthermore, when success ful thsicianovaton, small fms afc often aequited by latge ones, whieh

in small counties ate move likly 4 be frsign This entails some risk tht

‘oval returns 1 innovation spill abroad On de other hand it may sep up ths leo diet foe

3.2 Stimulus types and their problems

Banking evses tendo linger Fonger than average recessions, 38 the hss of|

‘value of productive capital is accompanied by malfunetioning credit ma els, For many countries poly options ste init 35 terest aes are al seady aan exceptionally low level (igure 5) Since the Financia ess a: fected inal all counties i the world, theve are few counties inthe work hat offer some engine of growth potential or expor-e ecovery in recession hit eeonenies China's demand may’ not slice alone, tov

‘combined withthe pl effect of other Asian growth economics there might ana some global imps from Asia's grosth

‘The ierest tae reduction in the Euro area and in Denmark, Sweden and

[Norway dd not seem to provide mh simul a ste (atleast wot nthe

‘at tera, bun eushioaing effet of a(eoncoastan) depeeiation of te Nomegian an Swedish crown helped export demand to some extent foe those counties, For Finland and Denmark the absence of cushioning elects fof deprecation made stimulus programmes more prominent and urgent Demand stimulus occurs partly more ores automatically i connection with increased use of the sosial security syste In aditon vowernments

‘can decide t actively inevease tor precipitate) pblieinvestnen an veal measures, With he excsption of cela Nonic counties ar relatively well Placed to exploit fiscal still and enance public investaents, as they are among the few EL eountis tht cotred the crisis in surplus ad oltvely Tew puble det OECD, 2009h), but this may change apy 3s oe example ths Finnish Ministry of Finance showed recently (MOE, 2014),

Trang 29

Te som criss an cote fr theme a min oes TP

‘The so-called leakage f domestic stimulus i usually large in small open economies owing 10 higher import shares IF (almost) all wade partners would do the stm, the leakages would compensate each ther Yet in prac tice there may be winters and losers inthis respect Leakage in Nordic

<ountres hovers aroun the OBCD average (OECD 2009, p15), albeit, with Norway and Sweden leaking clearly mow Concerted ation of timu- Jus may reduce severe imbalances in leakage Accordingly the international

<onmunity has suived to eooddiaate economic stimulus packages that t0- _sther would generate sfiient momentum forrecovery otake off Yet, at Teast European policy responses tothe etsis have heen nationally focused and mostly unevordinated Countering leakage by means of import subst tion may be councrproductive, not only because itis likely 0 lead 0

‘counter measures of ther counties, bu just aswell because ittends to dis- tort the allocation of resources and ay leat signtieat long-term inet ences, when such policies are continued

3.3 The size of stimuli packages

Discretionary fis measures have been indeed throughout the word South-Korea, the US, Australia, Japan, Turkey, China, Brazil, Russia and

‘Canada have intradaced stimulus measires sing above 4% of GDP (OECD June 20098)

‘Automate stabilisers are generally forceful in Nordic counties, with,

‘Sweden and Denmatk showing top OECD levels (OECD 2000, p.118) 1a Aiton, by Maeh 2009 Denmark, Sweden and Finland hid announced Fiscal stimulus equal 92.5% ~ 3.1% of GDP (OECD, 2009, p.L10) In une

2008, thes estimates had een revised 0 rse above 3% of GDP for 2008

2010, as of 2008 GDP Sweden's $27 billion stimulus package focuses on

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public infrastructure and investment inhuman capital, aching job tra

in, soeational workshops, and workple esiracarings extension of sea

‘neni ta parctime workers (CRS, Apt 200),

“Tax measures comprise about SMG of Finland's stimuli package ita

‘ion in June 2000), Spending was argete at the constuction sete rans-

ort, infrastrete nd enerpy profess, business sphsides and RED, an

abou policy and education,

Tn January 2009, Norway announced a package of §2.9hn or €2.269 oF

“investment in construction, ifratrctue, and eenovaion of state-owned

boiling, tax bras for companies.” (CRS, Apel 2009), OECD is conta

dicory giving Norway a mere 0.8% of GDP stimulus package (OECD 2009,

1.18) orslightly over 1 of GDP for 2008-2110, sof 2008 GDP incon

‘rast ean differs fo all wih a pening cut of 9.4% of GDP (OECD

2009, p18), Most stimls packages focus on 2009 and fll rapidly in

2010, with the excopion of at least Funland and Dena,

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3.4 Green Stimulus Programmes

The contents of green stimulus programmes

“Theeeovomie crisis ha also peceipitated wide als For cea-effcint eo

ry plans or "econ stimuli", In the short-term there may’ be seme for simulating depressed economies by bringing forward low-carbon and re rnewahle energy investment expemlitnes, Groen simulas presents a case

‘cxtmple of high stated socal turns Factors ffseting increased costs

‘of stimu include accelerated technical ehange in low-carbon activites,

employment of otherwise ile resources,

“nueprencurship which engender fre growth opportunities enter & tri, 207), In as far ts the concerned efforts ate teparded as largely u- voile, realisation daring a sump may’ lower the sos af these policies

ond simulating innovation and

‘hanks ta suppressed prices of prodets al labour

Atthe global level, the share of green in stimlus packages has heen es timated at about 15% ofa ola of 3.1 alin US dolar stimulus (UNEP, September 2009 and Robins ata 2009), China 34-385 of about $90 Bi Thon US dlr and the US (12 % oF about $790}n) have induced the largest green packages in vollncers lars, hile South Korea asthe highest share of geen spending in its overall stimulus packs approx 80%

ff about 38 billion US dollan, The EU also rates high (39% of shout 39 Dillion US dolar (source: HSBC February 2009) Among he larger Ewo

‘ean counties Haly’s green stimulus effect ssems to get more than ou

\eighe by exteaspendig om nes wads The UKs sal simul package aso favours roa uilding Germany’s and dhe US's stmolus packages are

Farge, amounting 100155 of GDP, snd predarinanty greun Ge, 13% aad

126 respostively aondng to UNEP, September 2009) Though funy oem (18 3% aeconding to UNEP, September 200), dehiridden France can ford only abou 0.15 of GDP seinulis package (ECOFYS, 2048),

‘The share of “green” in stimls packages varies in pons, Paty this

ts 10 do with timing differences, partly wid how it evaluated pasty case estimates ofthe effets of ox shift environmental taxes are nt

‘scaly available, Whil large governments have dedieated over 180 billion dollar sustainable energy in the stimulds conten, counties dle in

‘he shares and lucidity oftheir instruments, Accouding 1o UNEP once erie

‘constrains ae eased, renewable energy projets are among the fist gain

as steady pret revenue from steadfast public serves and ineastuc ture (UNEP et al, 2008), Yet wil be further discuss in the next se

‘ions and in chapter, it wil really depend on the eovitonmentl und fiscal poly context how expansionary this investment rea ill rt hệ

‘ting tls he most relevant ar ln9-cafhoncpoTey tolucion inc

Trang 32

«ceive climate change as an important factor in risk assessments (HSBC,

‘ne note thal the ratiag was made in he context temporary green inal

‘packages, Fr lon term strategic plans economic and enviroment et iene ratings may look somewhat different again

Tr shuld be noted ha there des nt exist generally acepte tana: ised definition of gecenivestnents, and neihcr of green products an se

‘es (6e also Stand and Toman, 2010), Ths makes it hand to compare packages and to terre investment pla reviews in eras of

without posting arbitrary, Some ions ar rate clear and largely unis puted, such as sola eletcity panels, wind whites and many energy sa ing measures Yet, biomass needs alteay mach mone senting, e with

rating, ds local circumstances cam be more o kes conlteite tứ sụch sol tions Sint, he ating of tansport solutions depends on the lea pope lavion density, pe of shipped ponds, ete

“Testi mamateheynetetgcpinone nant

Trang 33

(Ove may also wonder to what extent radical impeovements inthe env ronmental effets of hey industry processesean be termed “green, when sch sectors wil remain almost inescapablytesource intensive, This also tes in with concer about “carbon leakage” and the “polation haven hy pothesis” These concerns refer othe effect petaining that industries with hieh emission intensities may got ever more tempted orslocate¥ Aceuniry

cies, when envisommcatal policies i the

with es costly envionment pe

‘original peodction country continue to Hien If notions for hea industries enable tenn produce also in strict environmental policy env

‘onions han such innovations may help to retain such nsties ad re

to countries were high emission activites canbe

‘duce “emission leakage’

‘ontinge However, a good part ofthe growth prospects of these hey industries oinsides wid hezeonomie developmen phases of China i, Brazil, and other emerging markets, So the wverriding eason to expand sbyoal and to ~ gradually ~ seduce in advanced economies is elated to a

‘ory substantia demand pl Retention throughinnovatf ray tam ti

De merely posiponement of eduction hat ease dhe stimulus of imnovaton

sot be considered right away in conjunction with echnology-expor and teaser potentials, oth n eeononje aml emrernenGl terns, ad mụch less as an induscl eetcntion state

Comins packoges

The US pln fares well agaist de Granta Intute stra isthe major simolus package with sipnificant support ve renewable energy 299.1 la iuktion the package includes encegyefficieney in baiMings C837) lơơ cat vehicles (84) rall 94), gids 11%), and wastewater eaten CE 5%) HSBC, February 2009 pA)

China has responded surpssingly rapidly, Hs stimu package implies an ator star-up of large eoseuction investments and combines geen i

Trang 34

plies, carbon reductions and water resource development, industal and informacion inrastretures quality of ie improvements by mens of green sihiurhioods aad Rousing About 38 of Korea's pachage fires a water and wane themes HSBC, February 2009, OECD, Jane 200),

"EV stimulus packages are generally smaller dus tothe large automat Fiscal tabisers that widen seal defies in any ease, bt involve mere sip nificant climate components in the form of low carton investment (414) than inthe US Greer stimulus in EU packages generally favour enerey sifciency (68%) followed by green vehieles (whatever those may’ bed {HSBC February 2009), The BU proms arson picts priority along

‘nesay efficicney, and plans w layne European gecen cus inaive (OECD lune 200,

Stinntis packoges i dhe Nordic countries

As for the Nordic eounses, by February 2009 Denmark had not ilu

any green stimuls Norway complemented its stimulus package with a _rcen compart of NOK 6 bili (C183iin.), targeted at energy ef Sine, the development of earn capture technologies, and charging si tions for eletrie vehicles, amongst otc things (OECD, June 200; HSC Febyuary 2009) According 10 the OECD sn August, 2088, Denmark Finland and Sweden among other OECD couattics are moving towards green” taxation inthe content oftheir Economie eenvery Fo common stimulus, Seder hi wesignel as ich as C10 billion, of which halon

Swesen a eis timus package to ts log term ema poli a gels, To teach these targets, eid connections an wind power will he ia Proved ail an annua investnent of about (27.3 milion wil allocated to

‘nergy elfcioney between 2014 and 2014, 8 wel ohereombinations of measures, Moreover, between 2009 and 2011 Sweden wil jnvest about

£363 milion in climate related development assistance Pofieies to aap climate change have boen earmarked sbout (273 million forthe years 2190-2011 {egeringskansiet, March 2009, OECD, June 28; HSBC Fes han 2009)

Finland’ stimu package of €2 billion launch in Fbruaey’ 2088 cludes green clments, A goneral sift taxation of labour to environment

‘a consumption, and eeo-tficient energy saves are promoted as cei elements in an ecological tx reform, A metsue, which seems hot env ronmertlly and evonomically quite effective isthe introduction in 2008 of

an emission dependent car purchase tux ta October 200, the Finnish gov

‘enntenaaouneed a general target of reducing rconhouse gases by HO {1990 level by 2050, By 2020, Norway ais to reduce its emisions by 40

"(29 millon tonnes), and lend hy 18 % (3 milion tonnes),

Trang 35

CGieon sữenglo hc ejoyed a cenudl role at least in the packages of South Korea, China, Germany, Sweden and the US-Outpat deci cae > halt in Sweden i the second quarter of 2009, Recent epors Su

‘German and French econonies resumed growth in the second quarter ki modesty Tete ate fears (ECE Monthly ballein 20/9) that his may be {de to Fiselly non-sstanable programmes sch as the new car exchange

premiunn in conjunction with an old ctr demoishnent premium in Germany

‘nl iil programmes in varius her EU eoanres, Nevertheless mong

‘others the European Cental Bank emphasised that suck progtamnes should

he operated cautiously (ECB Monthly bulletin 20000, Aw analysis of car

‘renova schemes indicates that the macro-cffeets are modes

iy positive, but temporary, while also some crowding ot of oer expenitres occ Fur

‘ermore precipitated Mock renewal may be followed phase of reduced

‘demand, as people have heen buying new cars or equipment earlier, bat in

‘the Tong cua not more than previous periods’ Thiskind of eyeliea tous

«ould alo occur in some eer stimuhis packages Alia a he fest emp

«al indications seem 10 provide support forthe expectations that gteen

asin he shor ron, but there are als four concerns

imalus hp at

that heireventual economic and environmental effects ight he very mes {st Inher words stimulus may have more lstng effects, it eoincdes with eter seta poley reforms (seal orotierwis)

3.5 Fiscal consequences of the crisis for policy design

2008 in Nonway Finan, Sweden aad Denmark, the public budget si -anasupigs, whereas he consolidated government gross bis well below the euro area average (igure 6) Only in Tecland the consolidated dst has Ion isinesteply Ye, gross national saving aes have plummeted (i Which is only pay compensated by seduced need for investments Indeed

‘he Finish Ministry of Fiance (MOP, 2010) foresees the gross public debi

to grow dramatically from approx 34% in 2008 t approx 48S of GDP in

2010, We therefore reiterate thatthe combination of shronk asset vals

tightr credit eles, higher publie debs, and slowly recovering economics

‘weatesacontextin which tighter eaital market and henes higher interes

‘ales canbe expect In tur this makes investing regardless of being green

‘orn more expensive forthe public and private sector

‘Even though Nordic counties have sontwhat more fiscal maxocuvting space die their fnitlly) lower government det (a share of GDP), this does not constitute a big difference compared to some Western European

y of climate polices, Furthermore, agcing of

Trang 36

MMe ecommerce te inn an enronmentel as

‘hand and caution with respect tothe raising of taxes the need fr very ffee= tive instruments probably willbe sressed even more than tay Likely developments are (1) tax reforms, with evermore stress om taxing consump- tion of (natural) resources and only limited overall inrease of ax rates (2) abolishment oat east reduction of environmentally harmful subsites, (3)

‘other quasismarket incentive structures (ralable certificate systems; per formance dependent “ee ate"), (4 diel impeovement of marke aor ration and (5) combinations ofthe aforementioned options This kind of

«expectations (or in some cases recommendations) can also be found else-

‘whee, eg, UNEP 2008) and OECD (20090,

Trang 37

il both domestic markets and nearby export markets (leas af camsomer provduets) ean be expoeted to show sather modest growth ates fr good part ofthe nexideeade, Therelare, innovations that provide high ost elf:

het for producers or consumers may be in high demand Exam ples with a benign environmental potential are advancements in tee

‘ncetngs, inlligent ectering, and monitorng-feedback systems (ace also sections 4 and 5.1),

‘Less grown in consumer markets will ate the resurgence off

‘estments, Purthermore, bt ia he pli nthe private sector new) cap talean be expected 1 become more expensive fora gond put ofthe upon ing decade" (eg Voigt and Moncula Putcroo-Castllo, 200), A possible

consequence ot his may e for example that reenhouse gas emission abate

‘ment solutions, that enti lar up-front expenditures and reasonable pay ack ines, will gin popularity, Energy saving efforts fe fll neo that sategory In general lrg, risky and eosty options may be vise, whereas asosomeratical cost-efficient iannvations fea originating in won-ener sectors may succeed summing that he economic recovery inChina India and other Asian counties continues o strengthen, fossil fel prices will {etuen to the high pre-2008 levels within the upeaming decade, This will

‘make the market penetration af non-fossl fuel pions, notaly renewables, sssie On the other hand in conjunction with the cet nuns Fssi fue

price rises may ten gaveraments to aso elace Francia suppor foe RED 1T

mm 11 rues from carbon pci tha could help cece the deficit at low iF Any, welfare ests (OECD, 2009), rom igure 8 and ea enrol tha also in Nozdi cuties there would sil be space for more abundant fiscal exploitation of environmen tation, Denmark his sleep is en

‘sonmentalaxation from 2003 oawards (gure 8, whereas it has been bh leay fr years in Denmth, For ther Nonli coussies there seems abe sill space forgrcening” the tax system End-ase energy taxation used tobe bigh in Denmark, hú posibly duc to ongoing savings the taxable base d Iminished iste than rates went up (iguee 9) Also in Sweden energy ea

ts taxation was tightened somewhat In Norway’ and Finland energy end

vse taxation dosn't seem (0 hate heat consumption signfieaaly, even

‘ough for some sab-proups eects have heen reported Possibly the revemt

Trang 38

36 Tecoma in comsgee fo te inn an enamel a

‘nergy ta changes ia Finland start to have more elfet at least om house- holds wel as smal aed medium sized companies

| Pie Eimer ac even a share fot ts een Nr oe an

‘As regard the pricing of greenhouse gas emissions Denmark, Finland and Sweden take par in the European Emission Teade system (EU-ETS),

‘ster the Norwegian emission rade system is litsed to BU-ETS, Fan" thermore, Denna, Faland, Norway and Sweden apply earbow taxes on isi fucs, sehich however tend to involve exemptions for industies

Trang 39

(among others because of iteretion with EU-ETS) and entail different

ogres ofrevene recycling, leslandis considering the imposition af aca

‘hn ts on fos asl" Some revisions inthe carbon tasaion schemes of

Noalie countries would make sense and are probly feasibe, hut major changes (eg cegarding exemptions or much higher rate levels) might be

‘unfeasible However reconsideration of envionnnentally anil subsidy Setimes includ tx eebtes) may he both economically and environmen Lally mor elfetive, among thers dhe la side- benefits forthe environmen andor public heath

sre discussions going on within the EU concerning new carbon

0 for aearbon ii, see below) As long asitconceas nly fos sil Tues and would leave a ot of leeway for national ate setting, there

would change litle forthe Nowie EU member states Expansion of uh a

‘ax beyond fossil uel would cat significa methadological problems

‘would require assessntent of the embodied COs (e.g Usva etl, 2009), Fartermore, for other prods (than fils the efectiveness of sc fax

ca he questionable (Pesels, 2908 Geller avd Atal, 2008)

IFinteratona climate change negotiations fall shorcof EU argts ne

‘ate picture ofthe embdied emission content of the taxable pot prod vets, Yet, wth evermore glbullsing supply chains that wil get weumber some exercise (Heri and Peters, 209; Use a, 2009),

3.6 Summary

Recovery policies, even whea “pieea shoul he distinguished fom long term polices aiming at & sistainable transition, inte alia creating & low catbou seiety, The former ype of po

latter on sructurat change Carel selection and dosage of measures will

cies focuses on econontle growth the help to ensue that recovery poiciss also promote sustainable waning Many sữnglus programmes were dbed “green” Ther is however 0 commonly agieed defvition for “greenness” of public stimulus pro _rammes Generally speaking any stimlus measine tha promotes sas able investinent and operations which go beyond a baseline tend could be inked as “green” More concrete efficiency

Trang 40

well as vious emission contol chology could be termed “green” Also

1s wth eevn elements «x

the Nose counsies apply stimulus program

‘opt Icland which cannot afford a stimulus programme, duets domestic braking rss

‘Outright grcen stimulus programmes wll expt url soon, but forthe me ium long term changes in fiseal policies may he expected, which cam uso offer oppostuaities for “peccaing” publi finance poliy 6 common lement for most i nt all Nordic counties isa further sift towers 0 called “ecological ws efor” tang environmentally busdening ats

48 well a lo diminish or abolish envizonmentally harmful subsidies, Pr Theme la addition to emission wade her quasi aarkt instruments and informational instruments may gin importance

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