International Perspectives on Managerial Decision-Making 2009.12.12

Key global climate talks begin in CopenhagenBy Hilary Whiteman, CNN | 12/07/2009 4:58 PM CNN -- The drumbeat rousing world leaders to action on climate change is fading out as delegates

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Key global climate talks begin in Copenhagen

By Hilary Whiteman, CNN | 12/07/2009 4:58 PM

(CNN) The drumbeat rousing world leaders to action on climate change is fading out as delegates get down to the business of negotiating a global deal at climate talks in Copenhagen.

Almost 100 heads of state have confirmed they will attend the 15th meeting of the Conference

of Parties, or COP15, which begins Monday in the Danish capital.

The summit is testing the capacity limits of the Bella Center, a sprawling conference building outside the city center where the talks are being held.

More than 34,000 people have applied to attend the meetings more than double the number allowed to be in the center at any one time.

Non-government organizations have been told some of their members will have to wait outside, while registration has closed early for journalists after 3,500 applied for access.

Speaking at a "curtain-raiser" press conference on Sunday, Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), said: "Time is up."

"Over the next two weeks government have to deliver a strong and long term response to the challenge of climate change."

He said the level of commitment so far from developing and developed countries to reduce their emissions was "unprecedented."

"Never in the 17 years of climate change negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together," he said.

On the sidelines, controversy over a series of e-mails stolen from the UK's University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) is igniting debate in some quarters over the extent of climate change.

The emails were seized upon by those who have questioned the evidence that the earth's climate is significantly warming and that human burning of fossil fuels is a significant contributor

to that warming trajectory.

De Boer said he welcomed the scrutiny that some have called "Climategate" has brought upon the issue.

"I actually think it's very good that what is happening has been critically addressed in the media This process has to be based on solid science If the integrity of the science is being called into question that needs to be examined," he added.

The head of the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, Professor Phil Jones, has stepped down while

an independent review is conducted into the affair.

De Boer said successive reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most recent of which was released in 2007, made it clear that man-made climate change was a global threat.

Those IPCC reports are based on many thousands of climate measurements examined by climate scientists from more than 100 countries.

"This is not the first report from the IPCC It's the fourth report and it's consistent in the trend."

"I do not believe that there is any process anywhere out there that is that transparent," he added.

In the last two weeks, the world's biggest emitters the U.S and China have quantified their proposed cuts in carbon emissions and intensity.

The U.S has said it will cut carbon emissions by 17 percent on 2005 levels by 2020 That equates to a cut of just four percent on 1990 levels, the baseline used by most other countries.

China announced a "notable" commitment of a 40 percent to 45 percent cut in carbon intensity

on 2005 levels by 2020 Carbon intensity is a measurement of emissions per unit of gross domestic product.

While De Boer welcomed President Obama's decision to reshuffle his schedule to attend the end

of the talks, he made it clear he expected the U.S to come to the talks with a firm emissions target and financial contribution.

Firm funding commitments from developed countries for developing countries is seen as vital to reaching an agreement in Copenhagen.

UNFCC is seeking $10 billion each year in 2010, 2011 and 2012 before the figures rise sharply.

"By 2020 and 2030 we're going to need much more significant sums to deal with mitigation and adaptation," De Boer said.

In the next two weeks, he said countries must agree on three layers of action: Fast action to mitigate and adapt to climate change from 2010, "ambitious" commitment to cut and limit carbon emissions and a long-term "shared" vision for a "low-emissions future for all."

"I know two things for sure: There will be many more steps on the road to a safe climate future but also few turning points And Copenhagen must be such a turning point," de Boer said.

as of 12/07/2009 4:58 PM

UN Summit on Climate Change, 22 September 2009 STATEMENT OF DR R K PACHAURI

Chairman, IPCC Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute Director, Yale Climate and Energy Institute Excellencies, members of the media, distinguished ladies and gentlemen! I speak

to you in the voice of the world’s scientific community, which in November 2007 completed IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the collective effort of almost four thousand of the world’s best specialists working tirelessly over five years The uniqueness of this mammoth exercise lies in the fact that all the governments of the world – your own governments –approved of this report, and therefore have full ownership of its contents, some salient features of which I mention now.

We stated, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global sea level”, and that “Most

of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations” In the twentieth century average global temperature increased by 0.740 C while sea level rise resulting from thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of ice across the globe amounted to 17 cms With this increase the Maldive Islands with land surface barely a metre or two above sea level, every storm surge and major upwelling of the seas represents a major danger to life and property But this is not all Climate change is already resulting in an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves Precipitation has increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, whereas it declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of south Asia Globally the area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s The frequency of heavy precipitation events (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas.

If we take no action to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then average temperature by the end of this century would increase anywhere from 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees C The world is increasing its emissions

at a rate that may take us to the upper end of the range projected, which implies

a total increase in these two centuries of over 7 degrees C, that is, over 12 degrees

Fahrenheit Yet between 1970 and 2004 global GHG emissions increased by 70% and carbon dioxide by 80% We must halt this unacceptable trend.

Climate change, in the absence of mitigation policies would in all likelihood lead to:

1 Possible disappearance of sea ice by the latter part of the 21st century

2 Increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation

3 Increase in tropical cyclone intensity

4 Decrease in water resources due to climate change in many semi-arid areas, such as the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil.

5 Possible elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7 metres Without mitigation future temperatures in Greenland would compare with levels estimated for 125,000 years ago when palaeoclimate information suggests 4 to 6 m of sea level rise.

6 Approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at

increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5

to 2.5 degrees C.

In Africa, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to water stress due to climate change, and in some countries yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% The impacts of climate change would be disproportionately severe on some of the poorest regions and communities of the world My own analysis suggests that at least 12 countries are likely to tend towards becoming failed states and communities in several other states would show potential for serious conflict due to scarcity of food, water stress and soil degradation.

Mitigation of emissions is essential, and the IPCC has assessed its costs as modest To limit average temperature increase at 2.0 and 2.4 degrees C, the cost

of mitigation by 2030 would not exceed 3% of the global GDP In other words, the so-called prosperity expected in 2030 would be postponed by just a few months Further, mitigation carries many cobenefits, such as lower levels of air pollution and associated health benefits, higher energy security, larger employment and stable agricultural production, ensuring greater food security A portfolio of technologies, currently available or expected to be commercialized, enable stringent mitigation efforts being mounted today.

It is heartening that the G8 leaders have recognized the broad scientific view of limiting increase in global average temperature to 2° C But, we have clearly specified that if temperature increase is to be limited to between 2.0 and 2.4° C, global emissions must peak no later than 2015 That is only six years from now And the 2.0° ceiling too would lead to sea-level rise on account of thermal expansion alone of 0.4 to 1.4 meters This increase added to the effect melting of snow and ice across the globe, could submerge several small island states and Bangladesh.

Avoiding the impacts of climate change through mitigation of emissions would provide incalculable benefits including economic expansion and employment If those in this August gathering do not act on time, all of us would become leaders and citizens of failed states, because we would be failing in our sacred duty to protect this planet, which gives life to all species Science leaves us with no space for inaction now.

Peanut shells, corn stalks: China's alternative to coal?

By Emily Chang, CNN December 6, 2009 9:55 p.m EST

Shengchang uses corn stalks, tree bark and peanut shells to make pellets that can replace coal.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases

• The country relies on coal for 70 percent of its energy

• Beijing to cut carbon intensity 40-45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020

• Analysts: China's emissions will still rise significantly but at a slower pace

Beijing, China (CNN) Mountains of peanut shells are spread out across Shengchang

Bioenergy's property on the outskirts of Beijing Local farmers drive in and out, unloading dried corn stalks in exchange for a small fee

The peanut shells, corn stalks and even tree bark are dried, ground and re-purposed The end result: Biomass pellets that can be used as a replacement for coal

Shengchang Bioenergy also makes a line of stoves and boilers in which the pellets can

be burned The company says the stoves are up to five times more energy efficient than traditional coal boilers and are slightly cheaper to operate

"Our stoves mean a lot to rural villagers because they heat more effectively," said the company's general manager, Fu Youhong "They're very accessible and we're planning toexpand with the government."

Just down the street from the factory, Bi Hongjun, a bus driver for the city of Beijing, has received a new stove as part of a test project with Shengchang Bioenergy and the Ministry of Agriculture

"It's very easy to use," Bi said as he demonstrated how to load the energy-saving stove with the pellets "It's not like the old-style cumbersome boiler which is difficult to light."The Shengchang boilers are one small-scale example of how China can make a large-

scale transition to becoming a low-carbon economy.

China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, relies on dirty coal for 70 percent

of its energy

But the Chinese government has recently made some commitments to change that The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) China's top economic planner has pledged to cut carbon intensity 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 Carbon intensity is the amount of carbon released per unit of gross domestic product.Last week Xie Zhenhua, vice minister of the NDRC, vowed that China would meet these goals

"China will not repeat traditional path of growth of developed nations of high emissions, high energy consumption and high pollution," Xie said

Analysts say this means China's emissions will still continue to rise significantly though

at a slower pace While China is not capping emissions absolutely, most argue it is a significant step in the right direction

"China will not repeat traditional path of growth of developed nations of high emissions, high energy consumption and high pollution."

Xie Zhenhua, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission

"Chinese leadership is very clear that China has to improve its environmental

performance," said Bjorn Stigson, president of the World Business Council for

Sustainable Development "It's really driven from a strong feeling that China needs to reduce its energy, reduce its pollution, to be able to provide a good future and quality of life."

Stigson was among a team of experts recently invited by the Chinese government to develop a plan to help transform China's energy-intensive economy He personally met with Premier Wen Jiabao, who will represent China at Copenhagen

In a November 2009 report entitled "China's Pathway Towards a Low Carbon Economy," Stigson outlined various steps China could take to "go green," including low-carbon industrialization, developing renewable energies and educating residents about how to live sustainably

Stigson also indicated that China's rapid development gave the Asian giant the potential

to implement green technology more quickly, perhaps bypassing the high polluting growthmodel of Western countries

"Because China is building so much new capacity, China can leapfrog with solutions," Stigson said "That will be the platform for the next phase of economic growth, which will probably, hopefully, clean up their resources and make them more efficient."

According to state-run news agency Xinhua, 80,000 households in downtown Beijing have done away with coal heating this winter, the Beijing Electric Power Company said.The courtyards homes located in a historic section of Beijing have replaced the polluting

coal stoves with electric heaters, a culmination of a seven-year program to eliminate coal heating in 160,000 homes in downtown Beijing, Xinhua reported.

But projects on the local level will not be enough to address the steep challenge in the country of 1.3 billion

Hundreds of millions of rural Chinese citizens will still rely solely on coal to keep their families warm through the heating season that ends on March 15 of next year

Shengchang Bioenergy has manufactured 12,000 stoves since opening in 2006 Many ofthem now belong to low-income families in the neighborhood around the plant outside Beijing, but many more are needed throughout China

"It is understandable that China has gone through this focus on economic growth," Stigson said "But now, you can, as a country, take this more holistic approach You have

to do it, because the consequences are beginning to be seen, in the form of local

pollution, in the form of impacts on water, in the form of impacts on rural areas."

China's premier to join Obama at

climate-change summit

From Jaime FlorCruz, CNN Bejing Correspondent November 26, 2009 Updated 1012 GMT (1812 HKT)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to attend Copenhagen climate summit

• China proposes emissions cuts of 40 to 45 percent compared with 2005 levels by 2020

• U.S President Barack Obama has also confirmed his attendance at the talks

• The climate conference aims to agree to a global treaty to fight climate change

(CNN) Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will attend a major U.N climate-change summit

next month in Denmark, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Thursday

Wen's attendance "will fully demonstrate the great importance the Chinese government attaches to this issue, as well as the political will of the Chinese government to cooperatewith the international community," spokesman Qin Gang said at a news briefing

Have your say at COP15 Join the CNN/YouTube debate

Also on Thursday, China's State Council announced plans "to reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit" of gross domestic product in 2020 by 40 percent to 45percent, compared with its 2005 level, state-run media reported

The reductions will be "based on our own national conditions" and "is a major contribution

to the global effort in tackling climate change," the State Council said, according to the Xinhua news agency

The news followed U.S President Barack Obama's announcement Wednesday that he would attend the summit, which is to run from December 7 to 18 in Copenhagen

The executive secretary of the climate change conference welcomed the announcementsfrom China and the United States but called for rich countries to come up with money to help poor countries meet their goals

"The U.S commitment to specific, mid-term emission cut targets and China's

commitment to specific action on energy efficiency can unlock two of the last doors to a comprehensive agreement," Yvo de Boer said

"We still await clarity from industrialized nations on the provision of large-scale finance to developing countries for immediate and long-term climate action," he added

Obama is prepared to offer a goal of the United States reducing emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, the White House said in a news release

The White House also reiterated Obama's goal of reducing U.S emissions by 83 percent

by 2050

Asked about the U.S offer of a 17 percent reduction, China spokesman Qin said: "The U.S is the biggest developed country in the world, so it should shoulder its historical responsibilities and obligations, commensurate to its national development level We alsobelieve the relevant countries and international community should make efforts toward the success of the Copenhagen conference."

The announcements by China and the United States follow the world's top economic powers acknowledging earlier this month that there was no hope of a major breakthroughover climate change by year's end They acknowledged that at the Asia-Pacific EconomicCooperation Forum in Singapore, dimming hopes for the Copenhagen summit

But Obama's decision to attend "flies in the face of predictions of failure in Copenhagen well before the conference even begins," said Oxfam America President Raymond C Offenheiser

The White House announcement coincided with a briefing from the U.N Framework Convention on Climate Change on what must be agreed upon in Copenhagen

De Boer, the executive secretary, welcomed Obama's decision to attend the talks, saying his presence is "critical to a good outcome."

He said the United States is the only industrialized country that hasn't yet given the group

a proposal for cutting carbon emissions It is "politically critical" that the United States indicate what it can do "in numerical terms" to reduce its climate impact, he added.Next month's climate talks aim to strike a deal on a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 pact that has legally binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions The United States never ratified it, though more than 200 nations did

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Global carbon emissions budget 10% off track for 2000-2050, and could run out by 2034

Published on Dec 1, 2009 - 10:09:08 AM

By: PriceWaterhouseCoopers

Dec 1, 2009 - Very few of the G20 nations are on track to live within their carbon budgets for 2000-50 according to a new report by economists and climate changespecialists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP(PwC) The report reviews G20 carbon intensity levels between 2000-2008 and the distance to go to 2050, underlining the case for an ambitious deal in Copenhagen

The report estimates a maximum global carbon budget for the period from 2000

to 2050 of just under 1,300 GtCO2, with national breakdowns for the G20 on an annual basis, to give the world a fair chance of limiting global temperature rises to

no more than 2 degrees C (relative to pre-industrial levels), without sacrificing long term economic growth

Against the levels implied by the estimates, global carbon emissions are already 10% off track, with even the EU currently 7% behind At current rates of carbon intensity improvement, the world will already have exceeded its estimated global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of

schedule

Such a ‘business as usual' scenario could result in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations exceeding 1000ppm CO2e by the end of the century with

potentially disastrous implications for the climate system and the global economy

Using PwC's global long-term economic growth and energy consumption model, the study derives plausible annual carbon budgets and carbon intensity pathways for the global economy and the individual G20 economies between 2000 and

2050, consistent with a consensus view of a 2 degree C stabilisation scenario ThePwC analysis estimates a global energy-related carbon emissions budget to be under 1,300 GtCO2 for the period from 2000 to 2050, to have a fair chance of restricting global warming to 2C

John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,

commented that:

"The PwC Low Carbon Achievement index highlights that, despite the widening consensus around the need to decarbonise, few countries are doing enough to livewithin our estimates of their carbon budgets If the world stays on this track we will have used up the entire global carbon budget for the first half of this century

by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule

"Getting back on track to a low carbon economy requires early action by all the major economies and underlines the case for firm political direction to incentivise the investments in energy savings and low carbon technology that are needed Setting challenging global carbon emission targets for 2020 and beyond, and taking further steps towards putting a global price on carbon, are key elements required from a deal in Copenhagen Delays and inaction will just make it harder

to avoid dangerous climate change."

PwC's carbon budget analysis provides the basis for constructing two new PwC Low Carbon Economy indices, examining carbon intensity reduction achievementsbetween 2000-2008 as compared to estimated carbon budgets for this period (thePwC Low Carbon Achievement index), and the mountain the world now needs to climb to get back onto a low carbon trajectory by 2020 (PwC Low Carbon

Challenge Index) and continue on this track to 2050

PwC Low Carbon Achievement Index 2000-2008: G20 running on borrowed time

Key points from the PwC Low Carbon Achievement Index are that:

* Almost a fifth of the total global carbon budget for the first half of this century has been used in the last eight years

* PwC projects that the world would have needed to achieve 2% per annum intensity reductions in 2000-8 to stay within the estimated budget To date, we have achieved less than half this rate of decarbonisation (0.8% per annum on average in 2000-8)

* The resultant cumulative global carbon debt in 2000-8 is estimated at around 13GtC02, roughly equivalent to the annual carbon emissions of China and the US combined in 2008

* Global carbon intensity in 2008 was already around 10% above the budget for that year