International perspectives on natural disasters occurrence, mitigation, and consequences

In the 1990s there was a concentrated focus on natural disaster information and mitigation during the International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction IDNDR.. Become familiar with th

VOLUME 21

The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.

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Kalamazoo, MI, U.S.A.

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This book is dedicated to

Chapter 8: Natural Hazards in Japan 163

Hiroshi Sasaki and Shuji Yamakawa

Chapter 9: Natural Disasters in China 181

Yang Hua Ting

Chapter 10: Natural Disasters in Oceania 193

Chapter 14: Natural Disasters in Europe 263

Lea Houtsonen and Arvo Peltonen

Stephen Yool

Chapter 15: Natural Disasters and Their Impact in Latin America 281

James J Biles and Daniel Cobos

Chapter 20: The Experience of Natural Disasters:

Psychological Perspectives and Understandings 369

Joseph P Reser

Chapter 21: Curriculum Innovation for Natural Disaster Reduction:

Lessons from the Commonwealth Caribbean 385

Michael Morrissey

Chapter 22: Curriculum Adaptation and Disaster Prevention in Colombia 397

Omar D Cardona

Chapter 23: Current Curriculum Initiatives and Perspectives

in Education for Natural Disaster Reduction in India 409

Chapter 26: Natural Hazards and Disaster Information on the Internet 445

John A Cross and Yasuyo Makido

Chapter 27: Capacity Building, Education, and Technical Training 457

Joseph P Stoltman, John Lidstone, and Lisa M DeChano

Chapter 16: Disaster Impacts on the Caribbean

List of Figures on CD-ROM 467 CD-ROM of All Figures by Chapter: Inside Back Cover

Reports of natural disasters fill the media with regularity Places in the world are affected by natural disaster events every day Such events include earthquakes, cyclones, tsunamis, wildfires – the list could go on for considerable length In the 1990s there was a concentrated focus on natural disaster information and mitigation during the International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (IDNDR) The information was technical and provided the basis for major initiatives in building structures designed for seismic safety, slope stability, severe storm warning systems, and global monitoring and reporting Mitigation, or planning in the event that natural hazards prevalent in a region would suddenly become natural disasters, was a major goal of the decade-long program

During the IDNDR, this book was conceptualized, and planning for its completion began The editors saw the need for a book that would reach a broad range

of readers who were not actively or directly engaged in natural disasters relief or mitigation planning, but who were in decision-making positions that provided an open window for addressing natural disaster issues Those people were largely elected public officials, teachers, non-governmental organization staff, and staff of faith-based organizations Those people, for the most part, come to know very well the human and physical characteristics of the place in which they are based With that local outreach in mind, the editors intended the book to encourage readers to:

1 Recognize the dangers that natural hazards present in a location or region;

2 Become familiar with the patterns of natural disaster events that occur globally

and realize that, while each event is reported as a unique occurrence in the media, events may be associated in global patterns and may offer local to global disaster mitigation opportunities; and

3 Interact with information about natural disasters in the book that ranges from

accounts of events to analysis of the psychological and social consequences The readership we had in mind was important in our decisions about design and content for the book First, we believe that people in the educational community have a great influence over young people who will make future scientific, economic, political, and social policies about natural disasters and the efforts to mitigate their effects Those individuals engaged in education go far beyond the classroom teacher and include curriculum experts, adult and community education personnel, evaluation and assessment specialists, and leaders of faith-based organizations Young people in school are a critical audience Conveying knowledge about natural hazards, the mitigation steps possible, and responses to natural disaster events is an investment in the future

A second intended audience consists of policy makers People residing within

a policy maker’s jurisdiction are likely to be confronted by a particular set of natural hazards or disaster events In order to address policy in various contexts, the attention to natural disasters is international Natural disasters in a worldwide context are addressed

to provide a global perspective Affected segments of the population, such as women and people in developing countries, may respond differently to different types of

ix

disasters Different types of mitigation strategies may be required to address similar hazards in different regions of the world The mitigation of effects proposed by policy makers has been presented by examining one of the most basic of institutions, the school Examples from New Zealand and Colombia demonstrate the role that young people can play as disseminators of information to the local population This includes enhancing the knowledge of policy makers at the local and regional levels regarding their responsibilities for hazard mitigation efforts by the affected community and its citizens

Finally, we wanted the book to do more than report current natural disaster events We believed it should reflect temporal as well as spatial information When events are reported, they are in the context of a history of natural disasters and patterns

of occurrences Natural disasters are largely expected, but not predictable specifically to

a particular time or place Therefore, this book is intended to develop a “habit of mind” that results in accessing information about a local area, reviewing the patterns of natural disasters that have occurred, and planning on how to mitigate the effects on a personal scale, while urging policy makers to initiate mitigation strategies at regional and national scales

An author with a particular perspective and involvement in natural disasters research, mitigation, and response has written each chapter The chapters were drafted during the IDNDR period and reflect much of the enthusiasm that pervaded the scientific community The editors thank the authors for sustaining their commitment to

a book focused on natural disasters during several rounds of manuscript reviews

Joseph P Stoltman John Lidstone Lisa M DeChano

The editors thank the authors of the chapters for their contributions and patience in the preparation and publication of the manuscripts International contributions require a special type of interaction between the editors and chapter authors in order to maintain dedication to an idea and pursue a completed book The editors appreciated the cooperation in completing the book project

The editors would like to recognize the baccalaureate and graduate students at Western Michigan University who assisted with the preparation of the draft manuscript The book has been a memorable part of their education and impressed upon them that a book does not appear suddenly It requires hard work and persistence from everyone who has a part in its publication The students were: Fitria Wahid, Vinodh Venugopalan, Olena Smith, Peter Kimosop, Jennifer Klaeren, Kelly Lockey, and Matt Pasztor

The translation of an original chapter from Spanish was completed by María Elena Soler

Laurel Singleton and Cindy Cook completed the copy editing and formatting

of the manuscript Their expertise was greatly appreciated

The following colleagues served as external reviewers and provided suggestions regarding the content of the chapters while in the final draft stage The editors thank them for specificity, clarity of suggestions, and the time they devoted to the review process These reviewers were: Joby Bass, James Biles, Paul Blank, David

R Butler, Lex Chalmers, Eric Fournier, Eve Gruntfest, Joseph Kerski, Tom Martinson, Barbara McDade, Chris Merrett, Philip Micklin, William Monfredo, Janice Monk, Michael Naish, Jose Nuñez, Linda Prosperie, Savita Sinha, Philip Stimpson, and Michael Williams

The editorial staff at Kluwer Academic Publishers was consistently helpful in providing suggestions and responding to questions during the preparation of the manuscript

Support for this project was provided by the Committee on International Organizations and Programs, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council; the International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction Committee; the International Council for Science (ICSU); The International Geographical Union (IGU); the Commission on Geographical Education (CGE-IGU); Western Michigan University; and Queensland University of Technology The responsibility for opinions expressed in each chapter rests solely with the editors and authors and does not constitute an endorsement by any of the above listed organizations

The editors have exercised editorial license with the manuscripts Any errors

of commission or omission in the manuscripts are the responsibility of the editors

xi

J.P Stoltman et al (eds.),

International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequence, 1-10

NATURAL DISASTERS: RAISING PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING ABOUT RISK, OCCURRENCE, MITIGATION, AND

Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, USA

The chapters in this book were prepared by scientists who have researched and written about natural hazards and disasters for much of their careers Most have visited disaster events and sites at one time or another; have consulted with policy makers regarding natural disasters, risk assessment, mitigation, and preparedness; and have thought deeply about the role of natural disasters in the everyday turn of events that occur in various regions and within diverse cultures The information they conceptualize in their chapters ranges from the underlying theory for a particular event to the practical information that can be presented to elementary school students to prepare for and mitigate the effects of a natural disaster event The book is written for professionals and citizens who are engaged in natural disasters preparedness, prevention, and response wherever those events occur It is intended to inform those who are charged with educating the public about the occurrence, risks, and consequences of natural disasters, and what people, governments, and social institutions may do to mitigate the effects of those events In the broadest sense, the book is about increasing the capacity of the larger public to address natural disasters In a much narrower sense, it is a book that will enable specific groups of professionals to assist the general public in preparing for natural disasters Those people include teachers, public response specialists, leaders of faith-based organizations, and policy makers They may rely on the information in the book to further educate themselves and to advance public understanding of natural disasters in the larger community

Public understanding of science and the occurrence of natural disasters are two main topics presented in this book The first, public understanding of science implies the presentation of scientific information in a manner that enables people who are not specialists in science to comprehend the information and case studies and readily determine how it applies to their lives Few people are not subject to some form of natural disaster It is often the scale of the disaster that varies, so that in some cases

© 2007 Springer.

individuals or small groups of people are affected, such as in a snow avalanche In other cases, disasters are large-scale, such as earthquakes, in which many thousands of people are affected There is virtue in knowing about both small- and large-scale disasters, since they are the very basis for raising public understanding of vulnerability to and mitigation in natural disaster-prone circumstances

There is also virtue in knowing about the natural disasters that people in the various regions of the world face Today’s mass media allow real time delivery of all types of news, and natural disaster reporting receives a high priority for media time and space at the time of the event and for a relatively brief period afterward In order to enhance the public understanding of natural disaster events as ongoing, geographically diverse, and extending for more than just a few days when response and recovery are both considered, it is desirable to develop a broader general information base among the population Such an information base will have two effects First, it will improve the capacity of the public to comprehend the reasons natural events occur and sometimes result in natural disasters Second, it enables people living in a particular region of the world to empathize with the victims of a natural disaster in another place or region In order to frame the issue of public understanding of natural disasters, the following are three basic questions that must be addressed and scientific hypotheses formulated for examination in the future:

x Where did the natural disaster occur?

x Why did it occur at that location or place?

x What can I do to help mitigate the effects or future risks?

General access to the information with which to answer the questions will do two things It will improve public understanding about why natural disaster events occur Subsequently, that will result in improved understanding of the science that underpins natural disaster research relative to cause, effect, and mitigation of effects It will also provide the public with information regarding where disasters occur, the most basic being: do they occur near where I live? The association of the natural disaster event with a place or region is essential to understanding its potential impact and need for a mitigation strategy Both why and where are significant to the public understanding of the science of natural disasters

Natural disaster events also occur in time as well as space The common view

of natural disasters is often as current events; this view is reinforced by the way the media presents natural disasters as short-term occurrences Natural disasters are contemporary issues of considerable duration, both in terms of the time between similar events at a place and the overall pattern of events for long periods of time Specific types of events tend to revisit particular places and the people living at those places; thus, while there may be a current example, there are also many chronological layers of the natural hazard and subsequent disasters present at that place The contemporary but persistent presence of a natural hazard may be verified by taking a vertical cross section

of the place As an illustration of how natural disaster events are told time and time again, consider the region near Mt Vesuvius The current nature of the natural hazard is reflected in the single most recent catastrophic event, or the eruptions of Vesuvius in 79

CE However, the contemporary, common memory of the natural hazard presented by Vesuvius is reflected in the written accounts, artifacts, and clues taken from the physical impact of the eruption on the place Vesuvius thus becomes a persistent

contemporary issue rather than a current event Natural hazards and disasters as contemporary issues are evident in their persistence in the public’s view and the persistence of policy makers and local citizens in mitigating their effects

1 Natural Hazards and Disasters

The first seven chapters of this book examine natural hazards in the environment and the resultant disaster events Those presented are the natural hazards and disasters that most people recognize on a global scale: earthquakes, volcanoes, windstorms, global flooding, wildfires, mass movement and drought The initial two chapters on earthquakes and volcanoes examine recurrence of those disasters and relate them to plate tectonics The spatial relationships between tectonic plates, earthquake occurrence, and inactive and active volcanoes present a compelling record of past, present, and future risks from those types of natural disasters Public understanding of those relationships is essential to the willingness to recognize risks and take steps to mitigate for a natural disaster that may not occur anytime in the near future, but all evidence suggests will occur at some future time Dealing with uncertainty of when, where, and the intensity of an event is a persistent issue in natural disasters mitigation efforts

The five chapters that follow focus on natural hazards and disasters that have a pattern of past occurrence They present a combination of earth’s physical systems that interact to prepare a set of conditions that suggest a natural disaster will occur In most cases it is the interaction of atmosphere and land, while in others it is too little or too much precipitation resulting in drought and mass movement With greater scientific knowledge of how those natural hazards develop into disasters, a more informed public will have a greater capacity to observe and make judgments regarding the dangers of natural conditions that are encountered and that require decisions relative to both the mitigation of effects and the response to events after they occur

2 Natural Disasters Occur in Regions and Places

Some regions of the world experience greater numbers and others experience greater magnitudes in the case of particular natural disasters South Asia floods regularly during and following the continental runoff from the summer monsoon Central North America is affected by tornadoes during the late spring and summer months Australia suffers from drought during the summer months and wildfires occur Residents in some regions expect to contend with multiple natural disasters during the calendar year Some natural hazards, such as volcanoes, are associated with a relatively confined region or place In other cases the human element and the risk element of a natural hazard coexist The village perched on the slope of an active volcano so residents can benefit from the fertile volcanic soil, for example, experiences a higher level of volcanic disaster risk than does a place in central Siberia In the global view, there is considerable spatial differentiation in the presence of natural risks and the occurrence of natural disasters related to those hazards The spatial differentiation provides a regional context; for that reason, Chapters 8 through 17 are based on case studies of regions and their complex of natural disasters

A persistent issue continually arose in defining and applying the concept of natural disasters by region Africa is a huge continent and there is one chapter devoted

to its entirety Japan is a relatively small region, compared to Africa, and it also has one chapter devoted to it There is no regional chapter that focuses on Australia, although it

is incorporated in Oceania, along with New Zealand In most cases, arbitrary decisions were made by the editors after reviewing the regional information available and agreeing with a natural disasters scientist who had completed field work on that topic within that region and who was willing to contribute a chapter Those criteria were heavily influential in the regional organization and coverage

The regional chapters appear in a very general geographical pattern of inclusion from the Asian Pacific Rim westward, beginning with Japan Regional treatments of the natural disaster topics do several things First, they set the context for the range of natural disasters experienced The intent of the regional chapters is to examine how the population of the region, or national units and places located there, face risks and how they implement plans for both disaster mitigation as well as recovery following an event The initial regional chapter on Japan sets a context within which flooding, tsunami, volcanoes, and typhoons are on the hazards watch list Japan

is a country of earthquakes and multistoried buildings, and disaster mitigation has been largely accomplished by engineering and public information

China has an immense span of territory across a diverse range of geographical conditions, including its latitudinal range and considerable river basins and coastal shorelines As a country, it faces a host of natural hazards and disasters China is likely

to be preparing for, experiencing, or recovering from one or more natural disaster of significance at any given time Its large population, high population densities in the eastern region of the country, and great geographic diversity are the underlying reasons why many natural disasters are experienced Similarly, Russia is the world’s largest country and one would expect natural disasters to reflect its area Russia experiences disasters that are associated with climate, especially temperature, and to a lesser extent the sub-regional precipitation regime in some parts of the country The characteristics

of the climate make their effects apparent in different ways, but wildfires in the boreal forests during the warm, dry summers in Siberia are one consequence Temperature and precipitation also contribute to blowing snow as a natural disaster in northern Russia during the winter months In the summer months, temperature and lack of precipitation

on a cyclical basis contribute to drought across the steppe lands of southern Russia The diverse natural disasters of Russia and China reflect the range of natural disasters observed on the Eurasian continent

Other regions of the world have addressed natural disasters in the contexts of different hazard risks Within South and Southeast Asia, the mitigation of natural disasters is a long-term project that will take several decades of concerted work For example, flooding in the delta of the Ganges is an annual event related to both the wet monsoons and snowmelt runoff from the Himalayas The more severe threat of coastal flooding occurs when a tropical depression enters the Bay of Bengal and tracks northward into the low-lying delta region The ensuing wind and flood damage to property and agricultural fields can be enormous In Oceania and the Caribbean, for example, the challenge is somewhat different and stems not only from primary natural hazards, but from multiple hazards The islands in both Oceania and the Caribbean

comprise relatively small total land surface areas surrounded by extensive areas of water The geographic distribution of the land areas in both regions and the relative locations in the low latitudes have given these two regions on opposite sides of earth very similar natural hazards and, therefore, similar natural disaster risks For example, the small land area of islands reduces the probability they will suffer a direct hit by a cyclonic event However, if a direct hit occurs, the results are often disastrous for the entire island community

Europe and North America are challenged by many natural disasters, but they have also made considerable social, economic, and engineering investment in preparedness for natural disasters, response plans to deal with natural events, and programs to mitigate effects As in Japan, the history of natural disasters and the financial resources to implement mitigation practices is evident While early programs

to address natural disasters were largely disaster response planning and involvement of local communities, today new construction, land use planning, and school-based and community education are essential components of natural disaster reduction Despite the great strides made in natural disaster mitigation in Europe and North America, there are events that defy what are seemingly the necessary steps in caution and preparation, and natural disasters continue

The chapter on Latin America presents both the record of natural disasters as well as modeling some recent methods used to examine hazards, their risk potential, and the predicted consequences of a natural disaster event While aerial photography, remote sensing, and mapping are portrayed in several of the chapters, it is the chapter

on Latin America that takes the opportunity to demonstrate how a Geographic Information System (GIS) may be used to research population density and risks from flood and landslides The case study used is El Salvador, but the principles may be applied in any local or regional context as long as the data are available The risk of natural disaster events is high for many places within Latin America, but GIS enables scientists to examine the vulnerability of the population to a particular natural event The planning principle underlying the use of GIS in natural disaster research rests with knowing where the vulnerability is greatest and using widely accepted information to inform policy makers and citizens alike about where to focus disaster mitigation activities

Africa is a continent that spans the equator so evenly that natural disasters related to the combination of latitude and climate are predominate in both the south and the north While health issues, and especially AIDS, are significant disasters in Africa, they are not treated in this book Those issues are left to the growing public health and medical specialty information that is devoted to the disease There is no doubt that the epidemiology of many diseases is affected by natural disasters For example, drought is

a natural disaster that often results in the migration of populations under social and physical stresses They may inadvertently introduce or spread a health condition or become susceptible to a new health condition or disease at their place of in-migration That relationship between human and natural disasters is not a topic addressed systematically in this book

The number and variety of natural disaster events in Africa, when compared to the size of the continent, appear to be disproportionately smaller than experienced in other regions of the world On closer examination, the natural disaster events that affect

Africa, such as drought, impact vast areas of the continent and can displace large numbers of people While the total number of events may be fewer than other places, the magnitude and duration of natural events make Africa comparable to other regions

3 Social and Educational Perspectives on Natural Disasters

The philosophical perspective that policy makers and people take regarding natural disasters, their occurrence, response to, and the mitigation of effects are reflected in Chapters 18 through 26 The chapters in this group address the place of natural disasters in various formats of education, access to information, and social considerations that impact vulnerability and mitigation The psychological factors that function before, during, and after a natural disaster event are important issues for response teams The field of crisis intervention and crisis response devotes considerable thought to disasters response applications

The large question of people living a more harmonious existence with the environment is discussed in another chapter, since the “disaster” element of a natural event occurs when people and property are affected The practicality of disaster mitigation by hazard awareness and viable alternatives within a mitigation strategy is a major issue, since much of the world’s population lives within or near places where natural hazards are prevalent Within that context of population and proximity, different segments of the population, such as women and children, are more vulnerable to effects

of natural events Gender and age of the population interact to affect the consequences

of natural disasters

Information access is a common issue when determining natural hazards risk, response, and mitigation The Internet and World Wide Web provide opportunities to address the information problem The chapter on Internet sites and web pages refers to those of considerable duration that are important resources for natural disasters education and training

Education and training are critical to reducing the effects of natural disasters Observation, data analysis, and decision making are skills that are significant in natural disasters reduction at all scales as well as skills that are presented and applied in education and training Educational services increasingly reach a greater percentage of elementary and junior secondary school-aged youth each year In some instances, the elementary age children are the first in their families to attend school, and more often the only ones in their families and communities to attend school beyond the initial one

or two years In more developed countries, this is no longer the case, but in less developed countries the first generation to fully complete elementary schooling (ages 5 through 12) is emerging in the population These young people represent a valuable human resource in reducing natural disasters, since the skills of literacy, problem solving, and decision making are available to address local community issues

Elementary, junior, and senior secondary students are among the best diffusion agents for information about natural disasters, their occurrence, planned responses, and the means to mitigate effects Students study ways to prepare for a natural disaster event and take that information home and teach it to their parents, siblings, and extended family For example, students learn that the cooking stove should be anchored

to the floor to prevent its toppling and starting a fire in case of an earthquake They

observe that the stove in the school is anchored They then ask: Is the stove at home anchored? An important educational goal in regions prone to specific natural disasters

is to prepare students with the types of questions to ask about mitigating the effects of such disasters, and how they might go about doing that Upon hearing the suggestions and rationale from their children, many parents will take the initiative to follow up on the suggestions or to do so with the help of their child Many forms of mitigation against natural disasters are not terribly expensive and can be accomplished with little expenditure In urban areas, a homemade rope ladder will provide an escape from the upper floors of a building if the stairway is damaged in an earthquake Just as schools have procedures that guide the response to a natural disaster, students can develop similar written and rehearsed plans at home with their families

What is the source of the information that students need? Four examples of school curricula from four regions (Colombia, India, New Zealand, and the Caribbean) that experience natural disasters are examined The curriculum component may be taught in elementary school as part of the science, geography, or social studies It can

be a component of applied domestic studies, biology, or health studies It is important that the capacity of students to use scientific observation, data analysis, and decision making must precede taking action in preparing for and mitigating of the effects of natural disasters Diffusing the newly learned information to others must also be a service that the young people in a community provide to other residents

4 The IDNDR and Mitigation

The International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (IDNDR) ended in 2000, but the work initiated by citizens, community leaders, scientists, and international organizations continues into the twenty-first century There is a trend towards increasing occurrence of natural disasters and they may be associated with other environmental issues, such as global climate change, inappropriate location of structures near natural hazard zones, population and population density growth in natural hazard zones, urban growth and inadequate or non-enforcement of building codes, watershed destruction due to deforestation, and ecological change due to changes in biodiversity, such as is the case with desertification The consequences have been increased human suffering, loss of life, and economic losses The proportion of the world’s population affected by natural disasters was nearly one tenth of the world population in 2000 The total global economic damages during any given year are enormous and exceed the gross domestic product of many of the world’s countries (Asia Disasters Reduction Center, 2002; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2002)

The United Nation’s International Strategy for Disasters Reduction (ISDR) has both built upon and continued many of the IDNDR’s initiatives in monitoring hazards and disasters and training The IDNDR’s mission by 2000 was to complete national risk assessments, initiate national and or local prevention preparedness plans, and implement global, regional, national, and local warning systems (International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction, 1989) It was a huge undertaking, and many of the objectives articulated in the plan were achieved on a limited global scale and many on a limited national scale The extent to which they were achieved at the local scale is

practically immeasurable since evaluation of the effects at that scale is not in projects, but in results Natural disasters mitigation will undoubtedly take more than a decade to begin to reflect local and region-wide benefits to the population and the economy The reviews of disaster response planning and mitigation initiatives indicate that the goals

of IDNDR were disseminated and acted upon during and following the decade (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2004) However, many of the initial goals were not attained and the work has continued under the auspices of the UN’s ISDR The mission of the ISDR is to build disaster-resilient communities through increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development This will be possible by reducing human, social, economic, and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters

Recognizing that natural hazards can threaten any one of us, the ISDR builds

on partnerships and takes a global approach to disaster reduction, seeking to involve every individual and every community in working towards the goals of reducing the loss of lives, the socioeconomic setbacks, and the environmental damages caused by natural hazards In order to achieve these goals, the ISDR promotes four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster reduction for all:

x Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability, and disaster reduction globally The more people, regional organizations, governments, non-governmental organizations, United Nations entities, representatives of civil society, and others know about risk, vulnerability, and how to manage the impacts of natural hazards, the more disaster reduction measures will be implemented in all sectors of society Prevention begins with information x Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions The more decision-makers at all levels commit themselves to disaster reduction policies and actions, the sooner communities vulnerable to natural disasters will benefit from applied disaster reduction policies and actions This requires, in part, a grassroots approach whereby communities at risk are fully informed and participate in risk management initiatives

x Stimulate interdisciplinary and intersectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks The more entities active in disaster reduction share information on their research and practices, the more useful the global body of knowledge and experience will become By sharing a common purpose and working collaboratively, we can ensure a world that is more resilient to the impact of natural hazards

x Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction The more we know about the causes and consequences of natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters on societies, the better prepared to reduce risks we are able to be Bringing the scientific community and policy makers together allows them to contribute to and complement each other’s work (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2000, p 1)

Considerable work remains That work is, however, of a special type that requires reaching out in a number of different areas of research and public understanding of hazards, risks, and possible mitigation strategies Education and

training are perhaps the topics that will result in the largest return on the investment in natural hazard mitigation over an extended period Once the knowledge, skills, and political process are embedded in the population through education and training, then the effects are similar to a bank account that continues to pay dividends in the future Natural disaster education and training are an investment in the future for those who are presently at risk from natural hazards as well as those people who will be asked to respond in providing relief to the victims of natural events The following pages delve into those events and propose ways that knowledge of hazards and public understanding are significant baseline information The next step is more diffuse and requires the incorporation of local and national training and educational programs to raise the common knowledge about natural hazards and disasters Each national, cultural, and local context will have a particular set of experiences and lenses through which they will view public understanding and disaster mitigation initiatives

In some cases traditions, folklore, faith-based beliefs, and conventional wisdom will influence a group’s perspective on a natural hazard and risk of a disaster

In some societies the dimension of time is associated with a natural event, such as a disaster, and values are given priority relative to the consequences having been judged within the cultural context For example, the volcano erupted and destroyed the community, but it also enriched the soil for future generations, or the gods were punishing our community for something we did in the past The examples are numerous and reflect the strong connections between belief systems that are underpinned by sociofacts, or practices of the social group, and mentifacts, the communal values and attitudes of the individuals making up the group

In the twenty-first century, disaster reduction education and training include satellite imagery, geographic positioning systems, geographic information systems and science, laser-based measurements of the features of the earth, distant monitoring stations, telecommunications networks that spans the earth and traditional earth system content, including geography, geology, meteorology, biology, hydrology, etc., and computer and engineering topics That range of expertise requires participation by teachers, university and technical institute faculty members, community leaders, and people working in governmental and non-governmental agencies Education and training in the use and interpretation of instrumentation need to take place across the range of scales, from local to international A landslide event is nearly always at the local scale, but a hurricane tracking through the Caribbean is an international event Location should not interfere with the education and training of people in the reduction

of natural disasters and the mitigation of their effects Similarly, education and training must pursue interdisciplinary solutions to issues that are faced by people, impact on ecosystems, and economic and environmental sustainability within a hazards-prone locale Education and training are investments that will have continuing benefits in natural disaster reduction and mitigation

5 References

Asia Disasters Reduction Center (2002) Natural disasters data book Kobe, Japan: Asia Disasters Reduction Center Retrieved May 18, 2004, from the World Wide Web: http://www.adrc.or.jp/publications/databook/databook_2002_eng/1_1.pdf

International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (1989) IDNDR targets Geneva, Switzerland: IDNDR Retrieved May 18, 2004, from the World Wide Web: http://www.unesco.org/science/earthsciences/disaster/disasterIDNDR.htm

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2000) Mission and objectives Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Retrieved May 18, 2004, from the World Wide Web: http://www.unisdr.org/eng/about_isdr/isdr-mission-objectives-eng.htm

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2004) Living with risks: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives New York: United Nations

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) Natural disasters and sustainable development: Understanding the links between development, environment and natural disasters Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Retrieved May 18, 2004, from the World Wide Web: http://www.who.int/disasters/tg.cfm?doctypeID=32

J.P Stoltman et al (eds.),

of dollars in property damage within a fraction of a minute, interrupt tens of thousands

of businesses, and leave hundreds of thousands homeless and without jobs

Community decision makers often look to earth scientists and engineers for guidance on assessing earthquake risk and ask:

x Where should we expect earthquakes?

x How large will these earthquakes likely be?

Key Ideas

x Earthquakes are closely associated with the dynamic characteristics of theearth’s tectonic plates, especially at the boundaries, but also within a plate x Only about 100 of the many earthquakes felt and recorded each year are likely

to cause earthquake disasters as a result of their size, proximity to thecommunity, and the state-of-preparedness in the community

x The greater the density of population in a community and the number ofvulnerabilities in the community’s buildings and infrastructure, the greater thepotential for a disaster

x The precise occurrences of earthquakes cannot be predicted reliably;therefore, prevention mitigation and preparedness are the principal strategies

to protect people and property

x Vulnerability to earthquakes is often greatest for the poorest members ofsociety and in those nations in a period of development

International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequence, 11-36

11

© 2007 Springer.

x How frequently will these earthquakes likely recur?

x How strongly and with what vibration frequencies will the ground likely shake?

x What other geologic effects such as aftershocks, landslides, liquefaction, surface faulting, uplift, subsidence, or tsunamis are likely to be triggered? x How will the ground shaking and geologic effects vary in space and time across the nation, region, state, community, or at a specific site of interest? x What will it cost to enact and enforce prevention mitigation and preparedness measures?

Interdisciplinary investigations conducted by earth scientists and engineers after earthquake disasters throughout the world have shown that the losses from an earthquake depend on seven independent factors These are:

x The characteristics of the fault or seismogenic structure;

x The “size,” as indicated by the magnitude, an index of the energy release of the earthquake;

x The frequency of the large- and great-magnitude earthquakes;

x The earthquake’s proximity to a community and its buildings and infrastructure;

x The seismic wave attenuation function, which causes the energy to decay with distance;

x The local ground and soil conditions, which can amplify ground motion in selected frequency bands, or undergo permanent deformation; and

x The earthquake resistance of the buildings and infrastructure in the stricken area to ground shaking and permanent ground deformation

In most countries, historical records of seismicity, or earthquake activity, only extend back for a few hundred years, which is too short a time to understand the seismic cycle, to determine reliable recurrence intervals, and to specify when the next one will occur Even in countries such as China and Turkey, where the historical record goes back for centuries, the record is often inaccurate and unclear

The earthquake-prone areas of the world are characterized by active faults, seismogenic structures, moderate to high seismicity, and fracture and permanent deformation of rocks, especially along the margins or boundaries of plates and in fault zones A review of the largest earthquakes during the twentieth century demonstrates their distribution (Table 1.1)

2 Plates and Faults

Sixteen major and minor tectonic plates across the earth’s surface varying from 50 to

100 kilometers (30 to 60 miles) in thickness are continually and slowly moving Some are moving together, some apart, and some sliding past each other Figure 1.1 shows the continents as they were 180 million years ago, while Figure 1.2 shows the continents and the plate boundaries as they are today (USGS, 1994) Movements of the Earth’s crust along these plate boundaries result in mountain building, island uplift, and

Table 1.1: Severe Earthquakes (Richter Scale) During the Twentieth Century

Location Date Fatalities Magnitude

Source: U.S Geological Survey, 2004.

Figure 1.1: The continents as they were 180 million years ago Source: Author

Figure 1.2: The plate boundaries of the world Source: USGS (2001)

seismicity Although most earthquakes occur along the plate boundaries (i.e., interplate earthquakes), some major earthquakes have also occurred within the plates (i.e., intraplate earthquakes)

The plates move slowly with speeds ranging from a fraction of an inch to about 4 inches per year on an underlying layer of hot, almost molten rock (known as the aesthenosphere) Convection currents in the earth’s mantle power this movement, which is remarkably consistent over time As the rocks move, they become stressed and may break and rupture, creating faults as shown in Figure 1.3

The plate boundaries fall into three broad categories:

1 Zones where two plates are diverging or separating such as the Eurasian and

North American plates;

2 Zones where the plates are converging and undergoing subduction (a tectonic

process causing one plate to slide beneath another), such as the Pacific and North American plates, Cocos and North American plates, Nazca and South American plates, Eurasian and Arabian plates, and Caribbean and North American plates, or collision, such as Eurasian and African plates; and

3 Zones where the plates are sliding past one another along a great fault zone

without colliding or separating such as the Pacific and North American plates along the San Andreas fault zone, the Arabian and Sinai plates along the Dead Sea rift zone

Figure 1.4 illustrates the movements of the plates on the West Coast of Mexico, where the Cocos plate is being subducted beneath the North American Plate

Figure 1.3: Rocks under stress break and create fault lines Source: Author

Figure 1.4: Plate movements along the west coast of Mexico Source: Author

Fault ruptures that reach and break the ground surface, such as the San Andreas fault system in California, the North Anatolian fault zone in Turkey, or the Wasatch fault system in Utah, are easy to identify and study In every country, those that do not extend to the surface, such as the “blind” thrust faults underlying the greater Los Angeles region in Southern California, the New Madrid seismic zone in the central Mississippi Valley, or the submarine subduction zones in the vicinity of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Puerto Rico, are much harder to identify and to study Figure 1.5 shows the San Andreas Fault system on the earth’s surface

Figure 1.5: The San Andreas fault system Source: National Geophysical Data Center (1994)

Studies of earthquakes throughout the world indicate that a magnitude earthquake requires a fault that is at least 5 to 10 kilometers (3 to 6 miles) long, and a great-magnitude earthquake requires a fault system that is as much as 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) long These data have produced the following “rules” about seismicity and faults

moderate-Expect earthquakes to recur on active faults and seismogenic structures where they have occurred in the past in response to the seismic cycle The longer the fault line, the larger the maximum magnitude earthquake that can be generated The history,

or seismic cycle, of the fault system controls how often earthquakes of a given magnitude recur and, if it is completely understood, tells us approximately when to expect the next earthquake

“Young” fault systems are more dangerous than “old” systems in that almost all large earthquakes have occurred on pre-existing faults that have had a previous history of displacements in the recent geologic past (within a few tens of thousands of years) Faults grow in length as a result of the gradual and incremental lengthening and coalescing of small faults that ruptured in small earthquakes

3 Ground Motion

An earthquake is the result of the continuous cycle of stress accumulation and strain release along faults and seismogenic structures in the earth’s crust All parts of the earth’s crust are subject to compressive (pushing together), tensile (tearing apart), and shearing stresses, which cause strain to accumulate gradually over time When the stress exceeds the strength of the rocks, brittle failure occurs, resulting in slip or rupture and permanent deformation along a fault zone The rupture front spreads out from the focus of the earthquake (sometimes called the hypocenter) as elastic seismic waves The following four types of waves are shown in Figure 1.6:

1 P-waves (or primary waves) are push-pull waves, which travel at about 8

kilometers per second (km/s) in the earth’s mantle and 6 km/s in the earth’s crust These waves vibrate at a high frequency as they propagate through the earth from the fault to the surface and have a similar effect on buildings as a person bumping solidly into a table on which are bowls of soup

2 S-waves (secondary shear waves) travel slower than the P-waves and have a

slightly lower dominant frequency of vibration They are like the waves created by shaking a rope, which is tied to a tree The S-waves involve horizontal and vertical movements at right angles to the direction the waves are moving The S-waves are more destructive than P-waves

3 Love waves, one of the two surface waves, are generated near the earth’s

surface They propagate slower and with a lower dominant frequency of vibration than the P- and S-waves and exert a side-to-side force relative to the main direction of propagation

4 Rayleigh waves, the other surface wave, cause the earth’s surface to move up

and down and back and forth in an elliptical rotational pattern They propagate slower and with a lower dominant frequency of vibration than the P- and S-waves The forces their ground motion induces can be damaging to tall buildings and distributed infrastructure such as highway systems and pipelines

Figure 1.6: The ways in which the earth moves during an earthquake Source: Author

Both horizontal and vertical movements of the ground are measured by the network of seismograph stations across the globe; since seismologists know the average speed of movement of the various waves through different rocks, they can determine the location of the earthquake, the type of fault rupture, and the magnitude of the earthquake Seismologists calculate the distance of an earthquake’s epicenter based on the difference in the arrival times of P and S waves However, the precise location of

the epicenter can only be calculated from the data from at least three and often more seismograph stations

The size of earthquakes is determined from instrumental records called seismograms The magnitude of the earthquake is measured on the Richter Scale, which represents the amplitude or height of the waves recorded on a seismogram Each whole unit on the Richter Scale represents a ten-fold increase in wave amplitude and a thirty-two-fold increase in the energy released by the earthquake A magnitude 5.0 earthquake is termed a small earthquake and usually causes only slight damage In contrast, a magnitude 7 earthquake releases 1,000 times more energy and is termed a large earthquake A large-magnitude earthquake can be very damaging if it occurs close to a densely populated community having vulnerabilities in its built environment Great earthquakes, with magnitudes of 8.0 and greater, can cause catastrophes

The intensity of an earthquake, a subjective, non-instrumental index of damage (not magnitude or size), is based on empirical data incorporated into damage versus intensity scales such as the Modified Mercalli Scale, which is based on the graduation

of physical effects as perceived by people Mercalli values are derived from field interviews and observations of damage Maps of Mercalli values (i.e., isoseismals) show the gradation from “no damage” to “slight damage” to “moderate damage” to

“total destruction,” as one moves away from the epicenter of an earthquake through a stricken community However, the pattern is not always a simple one as the nature of the underlying rocks and soil play a role The age and types of buildings and the quality of construction can have a significant effect on the damage at a specific site

4 Vulnerability

Scientists have determined that approximately one hundred of the more than twelve million earthquakes that occur annually throughout the world are potentially disastrous because of their size (magnitude, abbreviated “M”) and their proximity to an urban center Post-earthquake investigations provide case histories and are the ultimate

“scientific laboratory,” because they teach valuable lessons and are a reality check on the relative vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure at risk in a community

Vulnerability refers to the flaws in planning, siting, design, and construction of

a community’s buildings and infrastructure As in other areas of disaster research, post- earthquake investigations make use of geologic, seismological, engineering, health care, and social science studies in order to understand the effects of earthquakes on people, the community’s buildings and infrastructure, the environment, and the administrative structures

Such studies have revealed that the vulnerability of a community to the physical effects of an earthquake depends on physical factors such as the frequency of the large- to great-magnitude earthquakes, the earthquake’s focal depth and proximity

to the urban center, the direction of the energy release, and the geometry and physical properties of the soil and rock underlying buildings and infrastructure It also depends

on social factors such as the availability of earthquake insurance and the degree of prevention, mitigation, and preparedness measures that are adopted as public policy and enforced by the community

5 Earthquake Damage

Earthquake damage and loss of life depends not only on magnitude but also the following conditions: the nature and physical properties of the foundation rocks and soils in the area; the resistance of the constructed environment to ground movements; the density of population and buildings and the time of day; and the ability of infrastructure (i.e., public utilities and other organizations providing the essential services of supply, disposal, communication, and transportation) to survive an earthquake

5.1 THE NATURE OF THE ROCKS AND SEDIMENTS IN THE AREA Structures built on solid rock are more stable than structures built on soil or unconsolidated sediments, especially if they are poorly drained or compress when shaken by an earthquake Buildings and infrastructure founded on such soils may collapse due to liquefaction, landslides, and subsidence When water-loaded sediments are shaken, they may liquefy and flow out from under foundations Some soft sediment can cause the elastic seismic waves to increase in amplitude In Mexico City, which is built on old, soft, lake sediments 50 meters thick, much of the damage from earthquakes is attributed to the amplification of seismic waves having a 0.5 Hz frequency Liquefaction is also a major problem in portions of Mexico City Figure 1.7 shows a six-story building that subsided more than a meter into liquefied soil during the

1985 Mexico earthquake Other buildings, whose pile foundations rested on hard substrata, experienced far less damage from liquefaction

Figure 1.7: Earthquake damage, Mexico City, September 19, 1985 Source: National Geophysical Data Center (1985)

5.2 THE RESISTANCE OF BUILT STRUCTURES TO GROUND

MOVEMENTS

The way in which a building is constructed determines its ability to withstand an earthquake Brick buildings tend to fail; bricks are brittle and cannot flex They also fail if the cement is weaker than the bricks Wooden buildings are more forgiving of flaws in construction than any other material and often are able to flex without breaking when subjected to ground shaking Ornamental facings to buildings can fall off and injure passersby While reinforced concrete is very strong, earthquake vibrations, which coincide with the natural frequency of vibration of a building, may cause it to shake so violently that it collapses Poured concrete floors in high rise buildings may come adrift from their corner fastenings and fall one by one to the next level below in a process called “pan caking.” Buildings also collapse because the ground on which they are built undergoes permanent deformation such as liquefaction or landsliding Tall buildings vibrate much more than low buildings when excited with low-frequency ground motions; if they are close together, one can “pound” the adjacent building until

it collapses Unanchored equipment and furniture inside buildings may injure people and smash into walls and windows

5.3 THE DENSITY OF POPULATION AND BUILDINGS AND THE TIME

OF DAY

The higher the density of people and the greater the number of vulnerabilities to ground shaking and permanent ground deformation in the buildings, the greater is the risk of death, injuries, loss of function, and destruction in an earthquake The greatest toll of injury and death to human beings occurs when earthquakes occur during daylight hours and particularly during urban rush hours Home is often, but not always, the safest place The threat of an earthquake disaster in a megacity located in a seismic active area, such as Tokyo, Mexico City, Los Angeles, or Istanbul, is magnified greatly when compared with an earthquake of similar size or magnitude in a less populated region because of the complex dependence on infrastructure and social systems in a megacity 5.4 THE ABILITY OF PUBLIC UTILITIES TO SURVIVE AN

As with other potential hazards, vulnerability to similar events varies with the level of economic development and status within the society The 1988 and 1989 earthquakes that occurred, respectively, in Soviet Armenia and San Francisco, were of similar magnitude (the San Francisco earthquake was twice the size of the Armenian earthquake), but the death tolls varied greatly California had invested much greater resources over time in mitigation and preparedness than Soviet Armenia had Fatalities were much less and recovery faster in San Francisco The building regulations enacted

in California were also more effective in ensuring earthquake resiliency and safety than the building codes adopted in Armenia Figure 1.8 shows a five-story building that collapsed in Armenia

Figure 1.8: Partial collapse of a five-story building in Armenia Source: National Geophysical Data Center (1988)

6 Earthquake Disasters: Case Studies

The locations of some of the world’s major earthquake disasters are shown in Figure 1.9 and listed in Table 1.2 Each may be regarded as a case study to examine various aspects of earthquake behavior and its effects on human activity A number of these events have been investigated by multidisciplinary teams of earth and social scientists, engineers, health care specialists, architects, planners, and emergency managers to produce a spectrum of lessons, which provide a framework on what to expect in future earthquakes Collectively, the investigations have improved the understanding of earthquake processes and their effects at the disaster location; provided baseline information for forecasting the temporal and spatial distribution of physical effects and societal consequences as a function of magnitude, distance, soil type, and structural inventory at risk; and introduced a wide variety of options to manage earthquake risk

The lessons from each earthquake comprise a compendium about what might

be expected to happen, why certain damage patterns and damage modes keep occurring, and the best options for changes in public policies and professional practices to reduce the vulnerability of buildings and lifeline systems in future earthquakes These

“earthquake events” represent different cultural and tectonic settings, but the lessons can be applied for all cultures

Figure 1.9: Distribution of some major earthquake disasters: 1755-2003

Table 1.2: Some Major Earthquake Disasters

Date Location

1976 Tangshan, China

1923 Kanto-Toyko

November 1, 1755 (All Saints Day) Lisbon, Portugal

Source: USGS (2004)

6.1 DECEMBER 26, 2003—BAM, IRAN

The moderate (M 6.5) earthquake that struck Bam, a city of 100,000 in Southeast Iran,

at 5:26 a.m local time on December 26, 2003, was one of the world’s worst earthquake disasters in terms of loss of life and the nature and extent of the economic loss, societal disruption, damage to buildings, and destruction of property and infrastructure The city was destroyed, with fatalities reaching at least 45,000, almost one-half of the population This earthquake disaster teaches an important lesson: namely, that scientific and engineering knowledge are insufficient in and of themselves to prevent an earthquake disaster The key is implementation of scientific and engineering knowledge in the form of realistic public policies for prevention, mitigation, and preparedness Bam had never experienced a damaging earthquake during the 2,000 years prior to December 26, 2003, even though Iran has a high level of seismicity and Bam is surrounded by known active faults In that sense, the earthquake that occurred

on the Bam fault, a well-known right-lateral-strike-slip fault system passing through Bam, was a surprise However, it was not a surprise that a disaster occurred when the Bam fault ruptured in a M 6.5 earthquake because of (1) the lack of enactment and enforcement of modern public policies to protect Bam’s people, buildings, and infrastructure, (2) the high vulnerability of the sun-dried clay bricks used to construct the 2,000-year-old castle, Arg-e-Bam, and most of Bam’s buildings, (3) the shallow hypocenter (8 km) located essentially under the city, and (4) the high levels of horizontal and vertical ground movements, which at levels of 70 to 90 percent of the force of gravity are much higher values than expected for an M=6.5 earthquake

The factors that contributed over time to increasing physical and social vulnerability and unacceptable risk to people, property, and infrastructure in Bam included (1) rapid urban growth, (2) weak national economy, (3) lack of government funds to support earthquake hazard mitigation programs in cities, towns, and villages, (4) lack of seismic rehabilitation programs for upgrading all highly vulnerable public buildings and multiple family residential buildings, (5) inexpensive and poorly

constructed private dwellings that often fail even in the absence of earthquakes, (6) a tendency of both government officials and the citizens to ignore the earthquake hazard due to more immediate and basic needs, (7) lack of or very low public awareness about the earthquake hazard, and (8) lack of enforcement of existing building codes and standards for infrastructure

6.2 AUGUST 17, 1999—KOCALEI, TURKEY

This M 7.4 earthquake occurred at 3:02 a.m on the North Anatolian Fault This is where Arabia and Eurasia, located on either side of Turkey, press against the Anatolian plate Homes and buildings were destroyed up to 320 kilometers (200 mi) from the epicenter Thousands were killed in the city of Izmit, near the epicenter Istanbul, a city of 12 million people, was spared extensive damage, but a suburban area, Avcilar, was greatly damaged Many multi-story buildings collapsed by pancaking, one floor coming down on the next, until the bottom levels were covered by mounds of debris, making rescue attempts difficult and dangerous The disruption of water, electricity, and communications services also made rescue and rescue coordination difficult Estimations are that at least 17,600 people were killed in this disaster

6.3 MAY 29, 1995—SAKHALIN, RUSSIA

This M 7.5 earthquake, which occurred at 1:00 a.m., is representative of the type of earthquake that occurs as a consequence of the subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Eurasian plate Almost all of the 3,200 residents of the town of Neftegorsk were killed when five-story concrete apartment buildings collapsed as a result of their inability to withstand the ground shaking The isolation of Neftegorsk was a major problem in the emergency response A hospital ship took four days to reach Neftegorsk because of the thick ice

6.4 JANUARY 17, 1995—GREAT HANSHIN-AWAJI, JAPAN (KOBE) This M 6.9 earthquake occurred at 5:46 a.m 20 kilometers from Kobe on a right-lateral-strike-slip fault instead of the expected scenario of a large-magnitude subduction zone earthquake located much farther away in the trench It is representative of the type of urban earthquake disaster that can be expected when a combination of negative geotechnical factors are involved The negative factors included (1) the magnitude,( 2) the epicenter being close to Kobe, (3) a relatively shallow focal depth, (4) fault rupture effects focused toward Kobe, (5) enhanced ground shaking due to amplification of soft soils underlying much of Kobe, and (6) liquefaction and lateral spreading of human- made soils, especially in the port area

The “surprises” included (1) the extent of the damage to the elevated Hanshin expressway, (2) the nature and extent of the damage to the port facilities, (3) the collapse of many single-family dwellings, (4) damage to welded, moment steel-frame buildings, and (5) the long duration acceleration pulse in the ground motion The economic losses exceeded $140 billion; deaths totaled 5,600 and injuries 26, 000; the homeless toll was more than 250,000 The disaster led to a renewed effort by the Japanese government to implement improved earthquake loss prevention and mitigation measures and to strengthen all aspects of earthquake preparedness, mitigation, emergency response, and research through increased international cooperation

6.5 JANUARY 17, 1994—NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA

This M 6.7 earthquake, which occurred at 4:31 a.m., illustrates what can happen in the epicentral area of an urban earthquake The earthquake was generated on a “blind” thrust fault zone, which underlies Los Angeles The fault rupture did not reach the ground surface It represents the least frequent but most destructive of the three types

of earthquakes that are being used for risk assessments, to increase preparedness, and to foster mitigation in the Los Angeles area In this case, instead of “the big one” caused

by rupture of the San Andreas fault or a moderate quake caused by rupture of the Newport-Englewood fault, a blind thrust fault ruptured in response to the ongoing north-south compression caused by the big bend in the San Andreas fault system that marks the active boundary of the North American and Pacific plates

Among the several “surprises” were the following: (1) additional verification

of the web of blind thrust faults beneath Los Angeles, one of which produced the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, (2) the exceptionally strong horizontal and vertical ground accelerations in a 20 x 20 square kilometer epicentral area, which exceeded levels of ground shaking prescribed in the building code, (3) ground motion characterized by a long duration acceleration pulse, the so-called “killer” pulse, (4) damage to elevated highway systems, (5) damage to welded, moment steel-frame buildings, (6) economic losses reaching $50 billion with more than $12 billion in insured losses, and (7) mortality of only 61, along with 15,000 injured and more than 50,000 homeless

6.6 SEPTEMBER 29, 1993—KHALARI, INDIA

This M 6.3 earthquake is representative of the type of infrequent, but devastating moderate-magnitude intraplate earthquake that can occur in a low seismicity region on

a shallow unknown fault system It was a “surprise,” not only because it occurred at a great distance from the well-known active Himalayan seismic belt in India’s northern border region, but also because it happened at 3:46 a.m on a Wednesday while people were sleeping in the supposed “security” of their unreinforced masonry homes Many

of the homes had heavy stone roofs These homes are well known for their vulnerability to earthquake ground shaking, but, because of the low seismicity, the potential risk was considered “acceptable” and they were purposely not designed to withstand the level of strong ground shaking that occurred Not a single house remained standing in Khilari The death toll is thought to have reached at least 23,000 6.7 AUGUST 8, 1993—GUAM

This M 8.1 earthquake, which occurred at 6:35 p.m., was located 55 miles northeast of Agana The shaking damaged homes and hotels Damage was less than it might have been because hotels and some buildings were designed to resist severe windstorms Liquefaction, lateral spreading, and landslides added to the disruption of the infrastructure and closed the harbor There were no deaths

6.8 JULY 12, 1993—HOKKAIDO-NANSEI-OKI, JAPAN

This M 7.8 earthquake occurred at 10:17 p.m near Okushiri Island in the Japan Sea, 30 kilometers off the coast of southwest Hokkaido The event is typical of subduction events along the recently recognized subduction plate boundary that parallels the

seacoast of northern Honshu and Hokkaido Property loss was estimated at $600 million, and 197 were killed Aonae, a small town of 500 on the southern end of Okushiri comprised mainly of one- and two-story buildings of wood post and beam construction, was heavily damaged from the ground shaking as well as tsunami wave runup, liquefaction, lateral spreads, loss of building foundation strength, settlement, landslides, and a fire that started at 10:40 p.m Because of the short distance, tsunami warnings were ineffective for Aonae Within two to five minutes after the earthquake, while the ground was still shaking, the largest tsunami ever to strike Japan began to arrive on the east coast of Okushiri The tsunami hit other locations within approximately two minutes after the shaking had stopped The surge of ocean water ranged from 15 to 30 meters nearest the epicenter to 10 meters or less on the northern and western portions of the island The fault rupture caused the duration of high frequency ground shaking, estimated to have reached 0.4 to 0.5 g at Aonae, to range from one to two minutes and to be longer east of the epicenter than in other directions Because of the 30-kilometer distance from the epicenter, structures were not as vulnerable to ground shaking as they were to the tsunami The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warning five minutes after the earthquake that a major tsunami of over 3 meters had been generated Although the warning, which was issued through local television and radio stations, came too late to benefit the local populace, many were saved because they had run immediately for higher ground on the basis of past experience The warnings were useful for other locations The tsunami reached Russia in 20 minutes and South Korea in 90 minutes with waves of 1 to 4 meters in Russia and 1 to 2 meters in South Korea

6.9 SEPTEMBER 2, 1992—OFFSHORE NICARAGUA

This M 7.0 earthquake, which occurred 120 kilometers (70 miles) west-southwest of Managua at 6:45 p.m., is representative of what can be expected in the complex tectonic area where the Pacific, Caribbean, Cocos, and North American plates are interacting Although not a subduction event, its destructiveness is related to the shallow focal depth and the tsunami, which caused an 8-meter (30-foot) wave that extended along a 330-kilometer (200-mile) stretch of the Pacific coast This stretch of the coast ranging from Porto de Corinto in the north to San Juan del Sur near the border with Costa Rica was comprised mainly of fishing villages and small resorts The town

of Masachapa, located 58 kilometers (35 miles) southwest of Managua with a population of 25,600, was devastated by the tsunami flood waves, which struck with no warning except the “noise of death” heard when the flood waves arrived at the coast The societal tolls included an estimated 500 deaths, many injuries, and 16,046 homeless

6.10 OCTOBER 11, 1992—DASHOUR, EGYPT

This M 5.9 earthquake, which occurred at 3:12 p.m., is representative of the type of infrequent, moderate-magnitude, but very damaging intraplate earthquake that can occur along the northeast corner of the African plate Regional seismicity is controlled

by interactions along tectonic plate boundaries: (1) to the north, the African and Eurasian plates converge near Cyprus, (2) to the northeast, the Arabian and African plates are separated by the Levant transform and, (3) to the east and southeast, the

Arabian and African plates are separated by the Red Sea spreading zone The earthquake was located 25 kilometers (15 miles) from Cairo, which has a population of

14 million and many nonengineered dwellings, buildings, and infrastructure The earthquake demonstrated the well-known high vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings to ground shaking Over 1,000 buildings, including a 14-story apartment building at Heliopolis, collapsed and many schools and monuments were badly damaged The economic toll reached $2 billion; more than 700 were killed, and more than 2,000 were injured At the time of the earthquake, Egypt had not adopted a seismic building code, although the Egyptian Earthquake Engineering Society had proposed one

6.11 JUNE 28-29, 1992—LANDERS-BIG BEAR, CALIFORNIA

Located on different strike slip fault systems, these two earthquakes are representative

of what should be expected along the Pacific and North American plate boundary in Southern California Although rural earthquakes, they are important because of their contribution to the understanding of geologic processes in Southern California, the physics of surface fault rupture and ground shaking, validation of damage from surface fault rupture, and calibration of the response of base isolated buildings to strong ground shaking The nature of their occurrence led to a new hypothesis that the San Andreas fault system might be attempting to cut a new path to get around the “big bend” in southern California Landers (M 7.4), which occurred at 4:58 a.m., was the largest earthquake to occur in California since 1952 It was a generating right-lateral strike-slip surface fault rupture that extended northward for 85 kilometers, starting on the Johnson Valley fault and continuing in a series of easterly steps across the Homestead Valley, Emerson, and Camp Rock faults The Big Bear earthquake had a magnitude of 6.5 and occurred at 8.04 a.m More than 250 strong motion records were recorded from the two earthquakes with the Landers records characterized by long duration acceleration (the “killer pulse”) and effects that were more pronounced in the direction

6.12 MARCH 13, 1992—ERZINCAN, TURKEY

This M 7.1 earthquake, which occurred at 7:19 p.m., ruptured the same segment of the 1,000-kilometer-long (600 miles) North Anatolian fault zone marking the boundary of the Eurasian and Arabian plates that ruptured on December 26, 1939, in the M 8.0

Erzincan-Rafahiye earthquake A surface fault rupture of 20 kilometers (12 miles) was observed The earthquake was like a “mini Mexico City” event because it exposed the vulnerability of unreinforced masonry and non-ductile concrete buildings in a 125 kilometer by 80 kilometer (75 mile by 48 mile) alluvial valley, which amplified ground motions in the 0.3 to 0.5 second range Many of the 300 collapsed buildings, which included housing, schools, hospitals, and hotels, were three to five stories in height, underlain by soft alluvium, and susceptible to soil/structure failure The societal impacts were 653 dead, 3,850 injured, and about 50,000 homeless

6.13 DECEMBER 12, 1992—FLORES ISLANDS, INDONESIA

This M 7.5 earthquake struck the eastern region of Flores Island at 5:30 a.m It generated a tsunami of 25 meters or more at Maumere The toll was 2,080 deaths and 2,144 injuries

6.14 OCTOBER 20, 1991—GARHWAL, INDIA

This M 7.1 earthquake, which occurred at 2:53 a.m., is representative of the rural earthquakes that occur in the Garhwal Himalayas in northern India This is one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world as a result of the ongoing collision between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate Two prominent northwest-southeast trending thrust faults are the principal sources of seismicity in the collision zone A population

of 307,000 living in 1,294 villages at the time of the earthquake was affected The ground motion exposed the well-known vulnerability of the non-engineered local housing, constructed of random rubble stone masonry with heavy roofs, and unreinforced concrete Transportation in the area was affected due to extensive damage

of roads, failure of bridges, and failure of retaining walls The tolls were 768 dead, 5,066 injured, and 42,000 destroyed homes

6.15 APRIL 22, 1991—COSTA RICA

This M 7.6 earthquake, which occurred at 3:55 p.m., is representative of the type of earthquakes that occur in conjunction with interactions of the Caribbean, North American, and Cocos plates The earthquake demonstrated the vulnerability of unreinforced masonry buildings and bridges to ground shaking, highways to liquefaction, cracking, and landslides, underground utilities to ground failure, and ports, like Puerto Limon, to liquefaction and lateral spreads The beach towns of Puerto Viejo and Cahota were isolated when the only highway connecting them was made impassable because of landslides or damage to bridges The death toll was 52

6.16 JULY 16, 1990—LUZON, PHILIPPINES

This M 7.7 earthquake, which occurred at 4:26 p.m., is representative of the types of earthquakes that are generated in this high seismicity region by two colliding plates: the Philippines Sea plate moving northwest and the Eurasian plate moving southeast The Philippines has a population of about 60 million, with Luzon having about 4 million at risk to earthquakes that strike at frequent intervals The earthquake was generated by a slip on the 1,000-kilometer-long left-lateral strike-slip Philippines fault that marks the interface of the colliding plates Severe damage occurred in urban centers such as

Dagupan, Gerona, Agoo, and Baguio, all of which are underlain by soft soils In Dagupan, hotels collapsed from the strong ground shaking, and the central business district was destroyed by extensive settlement of 1 m or more and liquefaction The toll was at least 1,700 deaths, 3,500 injured, and 27,000 homeless

6.17 JUNE 21, 1990—MANJIL, IRAN

This M 7.5 to 7.7 earthquake is representative of earthquakes occurring in the Zagros folded belt, the most active seismotectonic region of Iran In the villages construction was mainly of irregularly shaped lava blocks set in dried mud, or of sun-dried mud bricks with similar “cement.” The roofs in these villages were of thick layers of dried mud spread upon reeds laid across closely spaced horizontal poles, a construction practice that was highly vulnerable to earthquake damage The earthquake demonstrated the vulnerability of unreinforced masonry houses and buildings to ground shaking (Figure 1.10) Houses and infrastructure were also vulnerable to rock falls triggered by the ground shaking An estimated 50,000 people were killed

Figure 1.10: Collapse of unreinforced masonry buildings in Iran Source: National Geophysical Data Center (1990)

6.18 OCTOBER 17, 1989—SAN FRANCISCO (LOMA PRIETA),

CALIFORNIA

This M 7.1 earthquake is representative of the type of earthquakes that occur along the right-lateral-strike-slip San Andreas fault zone in Northern California marking the active boundary of the North American and Pacific tectonic plates With its epicenter

60 miles from San Francisco and Oakland, this rural earthquake occurred at 5:07 p.m.,