Tài liệu oecd environmental outlook ppt

When anaising resent ends and the projected outlook forthe diving fees ar the sectoral press wil aff the ae ofthe environment 220, ‘ie exensve work ofthe OECD sn eonomic and oval develop

OECD Environmental

Outlook

ENVIRONMENT

OECD Environmental Outlook

ENVIRONMENT

Afghătrseeel UCD gots you the ht tue one op thst or our pea eon rsaBerezdicprsdeter,

OECD Environmental Outlook

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION

‘AND DEVELOPMENT

Pursuant to Article {ofthe Convention signed in Parison 14th December 1960, and which cant ito force on 30th September 196 the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed:

to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member counties while maintaining financial stability and thus to contibute to The development ofthe woud economy

to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the ppracess of economic development and

~ to contribute tothe expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with intematignal obligations

‘The original Member counties of the OECD are Austia, Belgium Canada, Denmark, France Germany, Greece, leeland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Noreay, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States The fllowing counties became Members subsequently thiough 2ccession at the dates indicated hereafter Japan {25th pall 1904, Finland (28th January 1960), Austalia (th fune 1971}, New Zealand (29th May 19231 Mexico Liễth May 199%), the Czech Republic 12st December 1995) Hungary (71h May 19%, Poland {2und November 19%), Korea {12th December 1996] and the Slovak Republic sth December 2000), The Commission ofthe European Communities takes part inthe werk ofthe OECD Article 13 ofthe OECD Convention

` Washington emission lo reproduce a potion of his wok far son-commeial purposes or clssraom wee should be bane

‘rough the Centre taneas dexletation dy sot de cope {CPC} 29, se des Grands-Augustinn, 73008 Far permission should be obtained through the Copyriht Clearance center Customer Seaie, D83)770-808) Prt Rerowood Drive, Danvers, MA GID) USA or €ce Onne we apak cam All other applications For feimission to eprrce or tonsiate alr pat this boo sould be ade te OECD Pulao, 2 fue AnatePasa,

Preface

Jas over thee years ag, in 1997, OECD published study enitled “The World i 2020 ~ Towards a New

Goal Age" I gave a vision ofthe wort economy inthe year 2020, where govemments an societies seize the

challenge of realising global prosperity In my preface to that Report Fwme tt economic expansion of the Kin

‘envisaged bythe New Global Age would bring the foreson benefits only f pursued within the context of environ-

‘men sustain pois out ht there Was a urgent ned to del effectively wih sues such as seeenbouse

‘ss emissions hazardous waste production, megucy evolution, itensfialion of agrealtue timber ad fisheries

exploitation, and demsnds on freshwater Following rom ths twas only loge that Environment Ministers

‘wold ak the OECD for forwan-lookingenvimnment strategy when they met a Apel 1998 Ang the OECD

Environment Pliey Commitee wisely considered thit sha stategy would only he crib wnderpinned by

thorough analysis of how our use of natural resources and the quality ofthe envzonment may develop in the

medio log-tenfture

“This OECD Enimnmental Outlok 0 2020 provides the requested analysis presents a eeanomy-haned

assessment of environmental presire and onion 0 220, ndsstes pastel pli options to change the ot

Took ina more envionmenaly friendly direction, and analyses the potent economic and environmental conse {quences of implementing such policies In preparing the Emronmental Ousook data collected throughout the

‘OECD were used The economic model was sed on the one used inthe 1997 study and was combined with other

_moelso provide projections on envionmeatal prestrs and cndions Many OECD Directorates and affiliated sgencies hve contrite theirexperence and knowledge 1 the Enviromental Outlook, enserng tat is other

{ood example of the unique aiity ofthe OECD to provide highquaityeross-sectoral policy advice

“The Outlook also constitutes an important analyte! hackground for the environmental pila of the OECD=

Wide Intiativeon Sustainable Development and it as provided substantial conurbation othe Analytical Repos andthe Polly Repor on Sussiaable Development The resus ofthe Ouaookaze presented ia such a Way Cat a wide audience cam find this dy a worthwhile has for thinking bout the futre of our enviroment,

In preparing fora New Global Age itis becoming clearer that we dont own tis world hut ater have bor

‘wo irom ou cilren and the generations hat wil follow them We have responsi o pass ton na tate

‘which wl allow them to ull ambitions iia to ous, Ambitions at only with eset o economic aspiations,

"Ba leo terms of living in good helt and ia a lean envionment, without ata resoures ecoming scarce

‘The OECD Emironmental Outook provides a ision anda mes lor aehievng these amhtions However, thea

tothe fatare he more red and yell ight han green ones Were the late philosopher Leis Morford to review

‘his Outlook he would ks rept his famous observation of being" optimistic about the posiMitie peeimix: tic about the probabilities" hope his Oulook wl elp ong alarm bells incaptals around the World and inspire

‘onerete policy implementation which will ake ws optimistic about bh

Donald Iohndon Seretry-Generlof the OECD

Acknowledgements

‘This OECD Emironmentl Outlook was prepared by a horizontal taskforce inthe Eavinment Diteetorate

‘ofthe OECD, Joke Waler- Hunter, Director ofthe Envionmentat Disctorate, int and assumed an oversight

tole lathe preparation ofthe pot twas write and edited by Lars Fogh Mortensen and Helen Mountfond —

Iogethor wih Nils Atel Brasthen, Hoe-Seog Cheong Nis Crstnsea, Eline GeyeeAllly, Tom Joes, Sata

Ketiers, Nels Schenk, Dien Turneim and Porcini ViIo[aefe.Zavals = under the supervision of Rob Visser

Genera dance ws proved by Miche! Per and Kenneth G, Ring, The modeling framework Fer the ot

looks was provid hy Nils Axe! Brasthen, Hen Movitrd and Niel Schenk, in o-operton with ik Kem

ened of the Stskbolm Environment Institute ~ Boston,

“The report was propane in close co-operation with, and ised on background documents prepared bys oF

“andr the responsibilty uf, experts in the Envionment Directorate, incloing leon: Phline Bards, Noreen Beg,

Carla Bertuzzi, Dan Bills, Gerard Bonn, Chis Chung, Jan Coefee-Modo, Jane Elis, Nicky Grady, Henrik

Harjla, Nik Johstone, Jan Kepplet Myriam Lanse, Gene MeGlann Vula Megs, Laurie Michacls, Grzegore

Posoko Richard Sigman, Soizic de Tilly, Heino Von Meyer Peter Wiedekehe and Frégeique Zope Managemest

support was provided by Mark Baldock, Katherine Krai-Fenandes, Patricia Lackaud, Amy Plants, Bonnie

‘Schuler and Stephanie Sinonin-Fdwards Fatiha Cau-Lecland, Kristin Egleston, Wendy ages, lenmer Grin

and Barbara Ladeile gave seretarial assstange The report was edited for language by Beatin de Kose

‘OECD's Pubic Aairs and Communication Directorate ~ in particular Catherine Candea, Jean-Michel Leu,

AAnne-Lise Prigent and Mubecce Vltat-Gevier~ was responsible forts publication The Trnslacon Division of|

the OECD was in charge ofthe tanslation into Frenel

“The OECD Emirvomontat Outlook benefited from the extensive knowledge and experience of members of

‘the OECD Advisory Pans! onthe Ensronmentl Outlook ~ consisting af leading experts on environmental

Tooks an asessments~ who provided valuable guidance throughout the prvess, Members ofthe Advisory Panel

were Dr Allen L, Hammond, World Resources Institute (WR; Me Domingo Jinener-Bekran and Dr David

Staners, Euopean Environment Agency (EEA): Me Fred Langeweg, Dutch National Institute of Public Health

andthe Environment (RIVA): De Nebojsa Nakicenove,lateratonal Institute of Applied Systems Analysis

UIASA}: Dr Shuzo Nishioks, Kein Universiy: Me Nichols Sonntag an Dr Pot Raskin, Stockholm Ensirom-

rent Insite (SEN and Dr, Vesrle Vandewen, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),

Te ngon — and its hacksounl documents — benefited fom comment rom cllegucs inthe Envionment

Directorate tn in her OECD Directorates anda organitions, plang the General Serta the Bex

‘nomics Depiriment, the Distr for Fon, Agrslve and Fisheries, the Directorate for Education, Employment

Lor and Social Ais, te Dietmar Science Technology and Indust the Trade Dizetorae the Dieter

‘efor Financia, Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs, the Tetra Development Service, the Devslopment Co-operation

Digectozate te ltrmational Energy Agency (IEA) andthe European Conference of Ministers of Transpo ECMT)

Valuable comments and guidance were also receive fom expert in Member counties through various

‘OECD commitees and working groups neluding: he Enironment Polly Commitee (EPOC), the Working Party

‘on Poation Prevention and Control the Working Party’ on Economic and Envionmenal Policy Iteration the

Working Group onthe State ofthe Envitonmeat, the Chemicals Commitee the Join Working Paty on Aricatre

and the Eovieonment, the Working Group on Taaspot the Commit on Fisheries and the Ste! Comite

In the proces of preparing the Ono (wo stakeholder consultations were omnis, and the report bene

fe from comments frm epreenttves fom Busines, tae unions and environmental etiens organisations

Porthcmore, valuable comments were received a min\-workshops and consoltions bel fora mumber of specific

Secor examined inte report A workshop on forestry Was hosted by Poland, and eonslations were held forthe

‘hapterson the chemicals lads the pulp and pape industry and the tel indus

“The preparation ofthe OECD nnnmenal Ook wa made possible by ext-nodgetary eotbations rom

Austria, Denar the Earopean Commission, Japon, Korea, Mexoo, the Netherlands, Norway, Pol, Switzerland

sd the Unie States

Section 1

Table of Contents

BXECUTIVE SUMMARY, CONTENT AND STRUCTURE Executive Sommary

‘Challenges forthe fue

‘Green igh: proceed with eaton

‘Yellow lights eure fre investigation or atonal action

Red igh: need to be addressed urge

Imegrity of ecosystems

‘Technological change

De-coupliag envionment dopradation rom economic prow

Poe ation: ering fom he pst

Addressing the socal an enveonmentlintecace

Policy packages

| Contest and Strctore of the Report

LLL, Objectives and content ofthe eport =

12 Polly comes

Lộ Soures oF information nd modeling

L4, dont the most pressing envionment concems

1S Struetue snd coment ofthe eprt

References

Section ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

2 Demographic and Labour Force Developments

82 Developments in glolistion, toe and investment

33, Envioamental implications of slobalsation

Sik Policy ses

mm

43 Changes in the composition of production

44 Heonamic development and eavizonmentl pressures

‘Consumption Paerns,

5.1 Inradtion,

5.2 General consumption drivers and ens

53 Environment implications of conssmpion patterns,

S44 Policy istes

References

‘Technological Change os

ái Iamaduelsa

6.2 Drivers of technological change,

63 Technological change: ends and alk to 200

64 Environmental effet of tecnologia! change

65 Policy ates

References

Section PRIMARY SECTORS AND NATURAL RESOURCES

Agrieuture

TU Intradction

22 Developments in the agriculture sector

73, Effects of agricultural penuetion on the envionment

14 Policy options and their potential effets

References

Freshwater,

81 Inraducion

8.2 Pressures on feshwate esources

83, The ste of freshwater resoures,

84 Policy options and their potential fects 5

10.2 Developments athe forestry Seto

1W-3 Environmental effets of forestry sector activities 5

1044, Policy options and he potential effets

1

1

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1.3, Changes inthe sate of biological diversity os rr

Sevon ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, TRANSPORT AND AIR QUALITY

132 Presaes onthe ensroamen emissions of greenhouse gases 158

133 Theeffeets of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change la

Section V HOUSEHOLDS, SELECTED INDUSTRIES AND WASTE

18 ‘The Pulp and Paper Industry

18 Invdation

18.2 Developments in the pulp and paper indus

183 Bavionmentl effects of pl d paper proton snd ts,

1.4 Policy options and ther poe effets

19, The Chemicals ndusty

19.2 Developments inthe chemicals inst

18.3 Environment effects of he chemieals industry ands product

1044 Policy options snd thee potential effets nee

References,

20, Waste

20.1 Inradtion

20.2, Environmental pressres from waste

2053 Bavccomentl pacts of waste

204 Poliey opins

References,

Section VE SELECTED CROSS.CUPTING ISSUES

21, Human Health and the Environment

21 ntmadueipn

212 act of environmental degradation om oman ealth

2153, Tae heahh+eldelcos of nviuntenui deradtion

225, Soca dsnhution of environmental quay

223 Distributive eflects of envivamentalpoicics

225 Employinen implications of environmental plicis

23, Resouree Use Ffcleney

23.1 Inodetion,

352, The effect of resource us on the environment

233 Resource we elfcieney: cen tends an oatlovk Io 2020,

2314 Determinants of changes in resource use eficlency

235, Poliy testes

References

Section Vi INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS AND POLICY PACKAGES, VOR ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS, Signals of the OECD Environmental Outlook

24 Insiutonal Frameworks for the Environment

241, Itecton

2.2, National instuionalfeameworks

285 26s

‘Annex 2: Madeling Framework Used for the Reference Scenario and Poiey Simul mã

32 Sectoral effets of increased globalisation ~ forestry example sỉ

9.1, Exes fishing capacity and subsidies othe ishing industry nà

202, Effects of using economie insrumens for waste management aus

221, Main conelosons fom existing studies on the double dividend 263

242, Incressng privatisation of environmentally related service be

stot Tables

12 The ray of envionment polly options use in the Outlot St

61, Economic implications snd environmental effect for selected technologies vã

72 Environmental effets of agecultual subsidy removal and a tax on ageochemial use i OECD egious 0

923 Conparisen heweeneaimtaed polehijsanlshecseladinss tai capture fisheries of pinay

12.2, Contribution of energy ws airpolouts and greenhouse gas emissions 150 12.3, Effects of energy svbsidy removal ad energy 18 Hse in OECD eats BH

ĩ1, IIoeeloldapplanee nmnenhip lo leeted OUCD cònrtex, 1973-1997 (ants eẽ TÚI bonehold) 200

172 Subsidy and wx policy simulations effects on the cel istey in OECD regions ands

18.1 Key statistics and projections forthe pulp paper and publishing sector bie

182 Subsidy and wax ply simulations: fects on te pulp and paper industry ia OECD vegions

19.2, Effects of subsidy and x policy shock runecn the chemicals industy and is envsonmentl pacts 232 21-1 Tota health expendituce ix OECD counties and the envionment-rlaed share xe

212 Prionty enviroamentclated diseases sues and seco in OECD countries 333 23.1, Channels though which increases in resource efficiency can be achieve zm

25.1, Subsidies o primary sectors and natural resource use in OECD countries osconingW atu

estimates and as flected inthe Reference Ssnaro, 19S or most recent yoa, USS Pilon poe 25.2 Subsidies to eneray an el proton an use in OECD counties according to atl eximates

anda eflvtod inthe molling exercise, 1998 or newest year, USS Blion 29 25,3, Effects f applying an a valorem ax tat ineresses by 2 percentage points cach year on ll cemcale sein OECD counties and eemoving al subsides to manufacturing nus, difference ia 020

AL Histoneal and assumed levels of al GDP, 198 USS bilion sự

‘Ad Assumptions rganding he agricultural sectors annual percentage changes 1995-2020 318

Saeco

‘OECD age pyramids, 1995 and 2020

Peotsons aged Reteen I and 64 years, 1980-2020,

‘Urban and rural populations, 1980-2020,

‘Work expres, foreign aret investment and GDP, canrent USS, 1970-1998

‘World exports 1998-2020

‘Change in exports in 2020 under globalisation poey scenarios, compared tote Reference Seenara Real ODP, 1980-2020,

‘Average annual change in real GDP, 1980-2020

Real GDP per capita, 1980-2020,

Average annual changes in weal GP per capt, 180-2020,

Composition of valve de in OECD regions, 195-2020 :

{Composition of vale added in non-OECD regions, 1995-2020,

Private and government eonsunpion pe eat, 1980-2020,

‘Change in household expenditure, 1995-2020

‘Changes in envtonmentl effets ofthe sricalur cm

Water withdrawals pe eps, 1981-2020,

Water wihaawals hy sector, 1995-2020

Emissions of water poliatnts by str, 1995 2000

‘Wo sh production by gio and production spe, 1980-2020

Global fet capacity and catch fate, 1970-1089

Demand for primary ire inputs by type of we, 1995-3000

‘Change infested ae by fest type, 1995-2020

‘Changes in OECD laa se, 1998-2020,

“Tosa inl energy eonsompton (TFC), 195.2020, 2 3

Fel sates in enetgy mi of OECD counties, 1995-2020

Greenhouse gas emissions by gs in OECD counties, 198

Prjected COs emissions Im OECD cones, 1990-2020

Greenhouse gas emissionsby sector in OECD coontries, 1995,

Motor veel Kilometestevelld (VKT, 1990-2020,

Gob passenger airtel, 1990-2020,

Gighal CO; emissions trem motor vehicles, 1980-203

Motor viel emisions, GDP and population, 1995-2020

Externalities fom wanspot in Europe 1098,

Acemisson shares by region, 1995,

Emission soures for selected air potvtant OECD regions, 1097

Urban sites exceeding the WHO guidelines inthe OECD region 1993

Exceadence of eral levels fr ozone in Europe, 1990 and 2010

xeeadence of erica outs fr sensitive ecosystems in Bop, 1595

Apparent food consumption in OECD counties, 19742020,

Ecwiciy demand by houseolds, 1998-2020,

International tourist rivals worldwide,

2

41

3 3%

50

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18.2, Produetion inthe pulp, operand peblising sector, 1995.3050

18.1, Chemieals production, 1095-2020

19.2, CO; emisstons from fuel combustion In OECD countries 17

19.3, Proton of CFCs for selected ountries and regions, 1986-1997,

20.L, Munscipal waste generation, CDP and population 1 OECD counties, 180-2020

20.2, Municipal waste generation, 1995-2020,

2.3 Composition of etl waste generat inthe OLED rep ml 190s,

20-4 Recyling ates n seleted OECD counties, 1980-1997,

2115 Moncigal waste management, 195.2028

21.4, Tora buen of diese with tinned enviconscielted share, (mì 1990

21.2, Pater of disease burden with estimated envionmentrelatd sates, mie 9005

231, Rees ant metal ty of OFCD emi a we an ey of wean ODT

25 Effet in 2020 of removing subsist primary sectors and applying af o agrochemicals

in OECD regins

252, Effects in 2020 of removing emery soos napping a fuel e OECD regmne

2533, Etfets 2020 0 removing subsaes applying a fel lak an sheniel use ak it OECD cess

"AL Neste structure of production in the JOBS tose

Section I

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, CONTEXT AND STRUCTURE

Executive Summary

Challenges for the future Developing an Auth besinnig of the 2st contury, OECD coures are aking stock ofthat natural

OECD Strategy resourses, the damage hai being done to the environment, ad what ston they can

fo tackle the main take t ensue a clean, healthy aad productive environment to pass on to futore genera

fenvironmental sons To support the development of the OECD Envieonmentl Strategy forthe Fist

problems Deva of the 2st Century, the OECD ws asked to prepare an environmental outlook

‘sport analyse the likely eavgonmental changes 6 2020, and to evalte polly options L9 aidesing the main peor

requires on ‘This OBCD Bavroamenal Oatlook provides analysis ofthe forces diving envion-

Environmental mena change, the reent and projected pressures on the environmen, athe ressling

Outlook ‘changes inthe sate o he environment 2020, The Ouaokfocses on selected economic

examining recent sectors and key exviromental iste, The main divers of environmental change inclde

trends and sonore ders (economie gow ad development, wade and investment Ubon},

‘outlooks to 2020, social drivers snoraphic and Labour force developments and consumption alters) and

lechnolopcal novation When anaising resent ends and the projected outlook forthe diving fees ar the sectoral press wil aff the ae ofthe environment 220,

‘ie exensve work ofthe OECD sn eonomic and oval developments wa bt, OECD

kt and analysis of envionmeatl change and the OECD Pressure-State-Response (PSR)

‘Hamowouk form the bukboow ofthe analysis of eavitoametal changes, and of possible policy sponses to addres the eaviroamental problems

Traffic tights are ‘Trae tights ae set signal Key ingings ofthe report The “green igh signals

‘used to signal pressures that ate decreasing or environmental conditions for which the outlook to 2020

hey findings 5s positive It is also use 1 signal societal responses that have proved to help alleviate

{he problems deni The “yellow ight” signals eas of uncertainty a potential prod- lems aly the “ro ight” sjpnas pressures onthe envionment or environmental can Home lạ ehich recent trends have Been negative aid are expected io emt 19 he sỹ

40 202), for which resent reds have heen more sable, bul ae expected 0 worsen,

Green lights: proceed with caution

‘or many years, OECD countries have bee ying to tackle environmental problems

‘hey face, For some ofthese problems, major improvements have een registered oF ae expected by 2020, sich as decreasing emissions of some as pollutants reversal of efor

“sttlon ends i OECD regions and ructons in pont source pollon fom industry

(Gee Table There are some ‘OECD countries have viet eiminate leat emission frm pel an emissions

“green lights” of none depleting CFCs an significantly decrease emissions up oxides, ero

indicating ‘monovide and some particulate mater Implementation of already agreed emission redue-

‘eereasing Son taygets in many OECD countries is expected o lead to Further decreases inthe emis-

pressures or improving ‘son ofthese pollutants to 2020, The thee india examine in thịc eo Sind poper a chomials~ are examples of indusives whore ineeased efciney and ~ sts, pulp

conditions Jimproved production method re sigiicaily reducing the intensity of resource use and

‘he pollution and waste emited per unit of progust Aer centuries of deforestation or

«sed area and forest volume have begun to increase in most OECD countries over te lst two decades, and ae expected to emai stable inthe OECD aveao 2020 "Geen pur- chasing of enviaementlly friendly geod and products gaining ground in any OECD {countries The shire of waste that saver rom landing Io reeyeling is coining

to increas, ond is expected to ascount for 335 of municipal waste gener in OECD

‘ove in 2020, compared withthe ctment 18%, Atte sre ime, organi agfeture and tice eaviconsently fend fam protses are spreading ap For tose “eee lights", OECD counties should “proceed wih eatin”

Yellow lights: require further investigation or additional action Sever environmental pressures and problems fll unr “yell ight" hic sg ral unceninty or potential problems, One soc ie i water ase OECD countries

‘shih scontinsng to increase in oa, Bat as een declining per person in ove Pal of the OECD counties since 1980 and is expected 10 continue wo decline per unit of GDP 10-2020 (oe Figure 1) Silly, while there have ben sigaiieanimpeovements ns face water quality in OECD regions, with man of the worst polluted water bodies having eon cleaned op few OECD counties stsacony mest hast water quay hịectvex [so anogh CFC emissions have decreased signifeay in resent years defo the implementation ofthe Montel Proto, the ozone layer eomtiues to Become thinners pasemissions gradually each the stratosphere

For many environmental concer, avaiable daa of sienific understanding are inauate Elects om hum hel and easy anetions de ota emission rom industry ae still unensin nd poorly wndersoos, Data on hazards waste generation

‘OECD counrieshave not heen reliably collected so recent ends ae dificult to discern, though there are some indications that hazardous waste generation has Bean increasing Silay with expect many sepects of modern Biotechnology the potential elects on ott human and ecological heals are sl poorly undeesio

While hothsuaculare and plantation lores can hp alleviate presses frm incresed fish an fret product demnd on marl resorees (eg marine cape fish

‘ties and old growrh forests) hvugh intensive production, oth have potentially nezative

‘fects on loal ecosystem quality

Red lights: need to be addressed urgently {A erge numberof environmental presses nd contons have heen placed under x res Fight" signaling reson rend which have heen negtive and ste expected 6 om tinue 2020, c¢ recent tends which have been more sable bu ae expected 10 worsen,

‘These are the major problem areas, and need to be addressed urgently Many ofthe“ lghs late to global issues the state of environmental resources

‘orsioks of aloha significance and for which OECD counties ar only some ofthe wes oF polluters Overishing isa clear example of ated ight” sue of globe impocanee: one {quar ofthe worlds marine series are ale iter exhausted, overFshe, or eecoer ing tr overfishing Allicreee nthe demand for io 200 wl noe to be spo Through aquacltre, since marine capture fisheries show no signs of increasing Yi inst, their yields ae key to remain sable or even deine, Gb deforestation is another serious prolem ass Biodiversity los forts in OECD counties to imspove co

Saeco

.- elimate change

‘and urban air

pollution

to which energy

lise and transport

fare the main

‘conibutors,

Groundwater

pollation and

chemicals inthe

are also expected

tobe “red lights”

ions at home such as trough foresation programmes and te expansion of proce

as ~ are steps int igh direction, but inset to dominate the global tes, with

‘on-OECD replons expected lose almost a athe 10% of thee forest area by 2020, Cinate change asa es of greenhouse gas emissions is arguably one ofthe most 'perant "rd ight” ses fase by OECD countries Despite commitments by Annex 1 sowntreel rahse emieions he releseof toll greens gases OECD coties

is expected to continue to incase 19 2020, with emissions from non-OECD counties also growing rapily Undercurrent polivis, OECD counties age key to increse (CO, emissions by a further one-third 2020 fa from the overall Kyo Protocol target for Anno I counties of aS redetioa of grenouse gas emissions rom 1990 levels

1 2008-2012, Stronger pices olakle this prablem are urgently eure ithe worst, slices of climate change ae toe avril Energy use and transportation are Be sin

“ontributor to gresnfonse gs emissions as well sto vari ir ollatnts hat Ted 1

‘urban ae pollution, Ireurtent policy ates continue, the impact on elimate change of these actives ae likely to continue in OECD countries and worldwide 1o 202, with

‘motor vehicle Klomeiees travelled in OECD countries expected to increase by 40% from 1997 to 220, and pasenger ar hilomeres expected orp, Mean, energy sien OECD regions sexpected in nrease by 355% 4 2020

Wile groundwater potlaton has nt heen a major concem for OECD counties in the past itis increasingly Becoming one now The main source of groundwater comtni- atoms ariultualpllason As human populations draw mote ae more upon round- Water soures for drhing water and olher uses, the buildup of rates an other poilsants in these sources wil pose» growing problem, To 2020, nitrogen loading to

‘tera rom agricltre in OECD countries expected t nerease By more than one

‘quar, and persistent and toxie chemicals are expected to continue being widespread in the environment ovr the next 20 years causing serious tft om human health

TU the UN Framework Cosson on Cline Change (UNFCCC, Amex | asta counts ave ase 0 sumtin ices as rss Anes Ho he Koto Ptacol elise eal bi eens 5 a

Table |, Signals of the OECD Environmental Outlook

PRESSURES — + Industrial point + Water use + Agricultural pollution

ON THE ENVIRONMENT + Some air pollutants source pollution Ulead, CFCS, CO.50,) + Hazardous waste Toxicemissions from industry + Overishing + Greenhouse gas emissions

‘generation ‘+ Energy production + Motor vehicle and aviation aipollution

+ Municipal waste generation STATEOFTHE + Forest coverage in + Surface waterquallty Biodiversity

ENVIRONMENT — OECD regions + Forest quality in OECD + Tropical forest regions coverage

‘+ Ozone layer integrity + Fish stocks

+ Groundwater quality + Urban air quality + Climate change + Chemicals in the

RESPONSES + "Green" purchasing + "Green" agriculture + Biotechnology + Forest plantations

s Protected areas Aquaculture + Resource efficiency + Energy and wansport + Energy efficiency technologies + Waste management

but may aso

ead t new risks

‘Many renewable esouoes af wo in unsustainable ways, threstening the integrity

of ecosjsems As indicated bythe “ed ight" unsustainable maine Fisheries are no fcusing concern tat cute fishing practices and levels ae pt sasaiable i the long

fr, ad th the diversity and cae of the worl’ oeeans may decrease signifies

2020, Human indoced climate change i evident, andthe effects on ecosystems ae expected to be severe incading ising temperatures and rising levels of the wors's bosuns, Bindversty i threatened hy economic development in OECD and non-OECD countries, and topical forests ae continuing 1 diminish lly, freshwater seareity is ocoming a problem is some regions and deserteatin, land deradation ml is”

‘on ate als threatening Ihe hell of ecosystems

‘Wit the world’s poputtion expected to increase hy one-quarter to 2020, and eso

‘mie growth and glofalisstion continuing telly, human pressures onthe environment

ae not expected 0 ease uness strong policy đe si taken fo protet ecosystems snd

‘alata the extent services they provide ln ander ensure ecosystem ineplty over

‘he long tem, plies will he needed to secure deoxtiestion of te substances veleaned tothe environment, decorbonieatin of energy, conservation of bolic diversity and

‘he sstainle wee of renewable ata reso,

‘Technological change

‘Teetnologial responses have lesenel a numberof envionment presse inthe pst an they can be expected 4 allevisie many ~ thnigh certain not all — of the expected ure pressures Most of te technological developments have Bee i be [om

Df efficiency improvements, practices or tehnologies to increase th level of renewable resources production eg intesive forest and aprile, use of bitecnologies) and {0 reduce or eliminate he release of alla o environmental ed,

Inemny ils there have been new echnolngical breakthroughs resend others

ar expected to ocar nthe pri to 2020, These inclu new energy tevtnloges bch lui sel leebnoloE tạt can contiBt to Improving energy efficiency and reducing pressures on the envionneat

"Mod biotechnology including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have the potential to reduce the mount of damaging inputs (pestids, erties) used in natural resource sector agricul, testy, fisheries), ad inereae positon levels mest Than needs, However, there maybe negative effect human health and on global eo systems coping with these potential heats wil require more rescrch and improvements risk management regines

De-coupling environmental degradation from economic growth

In general environmental degradation has inreased at a slighty slower rate than sonomie go0wih The use of ener and other resourees, ike agecultural aw materials Water and metals, sow appears to be increasing ata slower at han GDP in many OECD counties st the pollaton sensi of ouput is growing even more slowly These rds

‘Suggests potential Tor decoupling economic grow rom envionment degradation I

Wo car learn fram

our past successes

However, despite improvement in resource eficieney, overall enviromental deg radaton has persisted in most areas as the volume elfet of toll increases in peviicbon Sind consumption have otcighed he reaurce efficiency gins per oni of prod Fle Towing rent tends, OECD counties are expected to reduce he energy intensity oftheir conomies by 20% 102020, while increasing to energy use by 38% (ee Figure I Even with house of sew more eicint energy and anspor lechbologies itis uliely

‘hat wal emissions fron these sures will decrease much over the hext two decades

‘OECD countries wil aed lo achieve more spifican anges in the fel mix th are -orreniy foreseen, wih rene sbstiition ofthe more poating Fs els with ene able resources and cleaner fel,

source and material intensity of OECD economies, total use and intonsity ‘of use relative to GDP, 1980°2020

ee Croom ctmunsiae ——Enagyuee — erste

Policy action: learning from the past

‘What san policy-makers do to tice these envionment problems? For dán, they nos 0 lok t examples of where improvements have already taken place or ae satin © happen nprovements have olen Been linked o pricing incentives reel interven Nor Rove redactions i water ase have heen tat pronounced in counres that have rere subsidies or water we rapped charges which llr lel he agin cols

‘of wate Simi the main restos inthe emery intensity of OECD economies, while rot driven environmental policy, occured during the major oil price shocks ofthe 1970 when eoeray pies increased apy

Government egubtions and esrctions have een pricy sees in ring

‘instal pollution, cleaning up the worst polite srface waters, and reducing the levels of

se ir pollutants, for example By phasing oth se of CFCs Dives iterton by gov {nents has alo eon sueesfl in sceasing the size and number fra ares in OECD Courses which are coaserved or wher only ese ve is alowed,praeing eug don

‘sulbeieriy Again, ile municipal waste eneraioncomindestoincreme almost 6p Say GDR, wate management pois in OFC coanreshaveneverthces let eer she of waste thats eel o eed rec its impels on the envionment

In other eases, government polices can fata environmentally hentia changes

Sn consumption patie This is bue forthe development a oganie agsculure ad thee cnvicamentlly sustinable agricultural paces, the rapid growth of which i OECD unis sary defo reter consumer demand and pty We governen bpp Si Shiny thew of ecole nd cericton schemes ea elo tee conor ar ress ofthe environmental and health impacts of thei consumption choies and direst demand towards les envtonmentaly-daaging products and services Ingenta rowing public acess 1 envionment information and the pole-making process eat help 19 nem individual constmption choices sd increase spert for environmental patie

Addressing the social and environmental interface

Perhaps some of the most sigifcant effects of environmental degradation from & social nd economic perspective ae the effets on human heath Kis estinated that vie

‘eonntentelaed hath effects ~ such sincressed ash and vespiestory diseases rom Seban smog, skin cancer rom thinner ozone layer an poisoning troup chemicals

‘he environment may amet to se meh a 2-65 of ttl hel-eate expenses OECD counries per year Furthermore, seften the poorest regions of the world andthe

‘oor communities in sciety tht are particularly exposed to these fects and that are the [east abl to access the benefits, esurces and services thatthe environment provides

Policies tat redeveloped to ptet the environment nd manage natural resources soald consider the disibutiveellets of environmental goal ad access 10 nara resources and of course, ensure that they donot free exacerbate these eects, Some

"ateges for addressing deribative issues environmental pli design are iscssed Joi report including measues to seduce any potently regressive effets of enviton-

‘mental ates orcharges (Le where lower-income groups spend gee prpostion ofthe

‘ncomes on he tak orcharge ta highorncome groups) Policy packages

To someextnt the most raetableenvieonmental problems have already been dealt swith The problems ofthe are are likely to he ore complex and their resolution wil

‘eure more aifficulttragenffs and greater intentional e-operaion, Thus, many’ of

‘he issues ideniied a "ee Tights" are problems of sharing the wse of alobaleesourees

fr sinks, such as biodversiy Toss, overfishing andthe release of greenhouse gases, White ulaoral action ean Help co alleviate some ofthe pressures on these resources strong internationally co-ordinated poliis willbe requeed A number ofthe other "ed Its are the elt of dlluse sources of polation eg poor Urban lly he dis persion af chemical inthe environment sind groundwater pollution ~ hich are if

st fo tackle Because they come from large numbers of dispersed or mobile sources (eg cas, farms, consumers) In many cases iti dil to identity the partiular

theres need

Jor packoges of

policy instruments fo successfully

address them:

The results willbe

both beneficial for

to improve understanding of envieanmentil ter and increase suppor for enviroo rental policy development

For each ofthe “te light issues examine inthe Ourloo, examples of appropriate poli instruments fr adressing the problem are denied and — where possible ~ their Posen ete re quaatvely assessd This report outlines "policy package” o on

‘nation of instruments —egulatry economic and ters tha exn be se to takle many tthe mow presing envionment mehlere I ofen dieu to design a ingle piey insirumen that wil sacestlly prove teri incentives frat redacom n resource

re in pliuen and waste generation, Insel generally be neessry to employ & mmx of policy insrumens, The policy mix suggested ere involves te combination of a robust regulatory framework with a variety of other nstunents, sch as swonger pricing

‘Mechaniats to influence the behaviour of consumers nd producers, lunar agreements rable permits ac labelsan information sence ll use repution a ne stricture provision fn prt the Ook recone the removal of envionment harmful stiles and more systematic use of envinmentl aes, args and oer eo: nom instruments get the pcs igh

Adopting this policy package soa elver inion nvionmentl Benefits ela tively low economicoss in OECD countries poli simulation Was undertaken to xan ine the penal effets of some of tbe key elements ofthe combined policy’ package: namely the emo of al the subsides ened sn OECD couric, the appeation of a erty tn inketo the caro content acs, ad axonal eee use The environ rental hencits from ths policy mix wold he substantia ase Figure 2) A8 a result of

In 2020 of removing subsidies, applying a tel tx fend a chemical use tax In OECD regione

Fragy demas PED)— cOgamasens—SOcamesons

implemcating th poliey mix, CO; emissions fms OECD countries would be 15% lower

in 2020 compared wih the Reference Scenario, SO, emissions woul! Be 9% lower, ad

‘methane emissions 35% lower Largely because ofthe effet ofthe ehemvea ax on fei

‘eruse agile, nitrogen outing watersays woul be alot 8% lower in 2020 npc with he Relrence Scenario With tis policy package the econ eoss a Dsvering thse environmental heneits were exited he ite fo len thin 5 {ecreae in GDP for OECD regions overall in 2020 sorared wih the Reference Sc

‘ato Thus mplementing such poiey package Would be cost-efietve and ead to i

— "

1

Context and Structure

of the Report

1.1 Objectives and context of the report

{1 Apei 1998, OECD Eavizonment Ministrs aopted a set of Shared Goals for Action This eluded an in

talon 16 OECD “to develop anew envionment strategy forthe nex decade o ensure excllnce inthe OECD's

contrition othe implementation of sestinable development nthe next entry” The Ministers requests that

‘rat of anew environmental sates he present or consideration a their mestng in 200, In order suppor

this exereise, the OECD Environment Policy Commits (EPOC) decided in Novembsr 1998 tat the Sưntesy

‘shouldbe underpinned by an esonony-based Enviromental Outlok to 2020, To ductysupporthe entiation

fof objectives to be olin ia the Eavonmeatal Strategy he Oullok would asoinelude an analy ofthe poliy

‘plios and potential poicy packages that coud be set aces th identified environmental problems and mest

‘he nbjestives to be olined inthe Environmental Satay, The Oatook provides an overview of developments

‘he economy o 202, and examines how these wil fest he envionment, whic polis an Be weed est

‘the environmental problems identified, and how te implementation ofthese policies woud affect the economy

“Ths Bmvronmenta Onsloo i also 9 response to he 1997 repr ofthe High-Level Advisory Gop on the

Environment othe Seeetary-Genetal ofthe OECD which recommended that "the OECD shoul asa mater oF

‘urgency, develop ino the Ke intergovernmenal organisation providing the industrialised nations with !heamlyt-

lealand comparative tamework of policy ncessry forthe economies to make the Wapsiton wo sstaisabiedevel-

‘pneat” By providing an environmental penpectve onthe plc challenges forte ute, the Earnie

‘Outlook ceinfores the environmental pill ofthe OECD-wide Initiative on Sestsnable Development

‘While sine envsonmestaloutoaks have been produce by aber international onnisstions (auch ss UNEP,

1997 and 2000; EEA, 2000; and UNCSD, 1907) the OBCD Envirpamental Outlooks istinet in tha it provides

etd economy: hissed environment oalopk ta 202) dae om the Tong experience and analysis by the

‘Organisation of economic and sectoral developments, ad focuses n ehange in OECD regions, recognising that

‘the OECD countries havea special esponsibility for aking ation on environmental problems an for achieving

progess cowards sustainable development The roar global situation sal considered, paticulely how devel

‘opments in OECD cousins ea alec ther cuties and tice vera

The Onalook draws on OECD data snd projections for economic and sectoral development tha aoe he

“environment 9 prove projections ofthe changes tha ay Geeu nthe ste of the environment 6 2020, Based

‘on in-house alysis of environmental policies, the report examines potential policy options otek the most sip

nifcantenvionmertal problems for OECD countries, and analyses the potetal environmental effects, economic

cost and strive impact ofthese plies The Outlook doesnot exhaustively adres al soc ad environ-

‘ent sues oF importance to OECD courses, but examines seleted pressures an issues and focuses on those

of highest oliy eelvance and for which information was avilable, bath aside stl ouside the OECD

1.2 Policy context

‘The Environmental Outlook stars front an evono%-based vision of emvioamenta sues Meeogniss tha

‘thre are underlying economic, sectal and ecological ators thal drive the prssires onthe envionment nd

that mos! ofthese pressures aie from activities speilic eeonomie actors, io and enna ese devel

‘opments are cent determining Ite pressires onthe environment na hese pressures may either be p=

Ported of alleviated by the policies implemented by countees In conjunction with increasing (but slowing)

‘Population pressures, the most significant rivers of environmental changeover the next two decades wil be con

tinge economic grow (articulsly in non-OECD countries) fuer globalisation of tae and investment, the tne of new technologies including information and communication cecology) and changes in consumption p= terns Changes in hese divers could have Both negative and positive effects onthe savirament, and piles will

be veda to addres the neptveefecs

‘Te broader context in which environmental policies operate has heen changing in resent doves, and expected t continue to evolve (ace Table 11) Environmental problems st eats the pest concen 20-0 years ago related (a poin-sooce polation, with politia interest Being Given mainly hy shoe-erenpaic health eo ern The est! for deisve political aston was le, an here enlef t be more winners han foe rm sich policy actions Tere was als relatively wide agreement on the pois that were needed (generally aban on he bffendingpolaant ois containment and progress was apd Infect environmental policies were ood by def

‘nin, While business di face addional cost In some sans, was able to Keep a cetain “distance” from the enviromental movement by respeting the new technical constrains that resulted ram the environmental pol

‘eis, The media coverage of environmental problems as exlensve, bul anlly supportive, given the phic health dimension of many ofthe underlying isics, Tere was ass general perception thal existing insions|

‘were capable of solving these problems During this period many’of the most uacable envitonmentalpreblems

‘were “chery picked nthe sense tat the easiest ssUes Were largely dealt with, leaving behind the more difficult {and mote cosy) questions to he face ihe fture

Table 11, The eveling context of enionmental ply mana

Sarton Mngmgabecittes

tention has hos sites from point sources of pllstion 1 non-point, diffse, snares sch a greats and other sectors The numberof ators with an interest in given environmental problem has inereased, compli- cating the policy ask considerably AWaeness has also grown tat environmental problems are very much pat of

Sao

broader "system", and cam be viewed i bolgion from ha system For example deforssaton snow seen as not just forest management problem ~ it also mereues erosion aes flod rks, degrades water uly and

‘us ih bie, wells csng“ebound” effects onthe sunny by destroying he resourscbase The diverse seologiea serves provided bythe environment (as “xnks” fir and Water pola sabia or comereal Fosheres und wii, ane a ¬ lon benenl or o fe dsl) have thereonegradaally come a he recoprise Pohl sted i reser management or, wal, i, wif) are ineresinay sompting for atention Su probleme relied to poilolion conte, Bess of these more complex iterations, he urgency of some enon

‘coal problems seems less evident than i the past Ae al, ew counts appr o be wang out of water or Fata key charatenstic of many ofthe esouee manazenrent poblens ha hey can pt eff ul late {Poot of sigh ut of min”) Ax aut, hang led len been ack of» tong plies emmatfUeny ta ohhy am etl these "new" envionmental estes, Een whers pen fr lobbying exists the sacs involve ae en

> compl at they ae ie to explain othe gener pubs, As sonsequenys, mod enion hs deslined inmnany counties

“The scale of exvironmental problems hs also Been changing ropidy: Whereas many environmental exter

to seat include ete

‘Sounties to cross borders and, inereasngly, osfect the enive world Clinatechange, Modiversity lasses ack

‘ain and retin i he thikness ofthe caone layer al incae thatthe woe nigh be overeapliting the resimilalive cacy uf me of ental resources As hese oss hese Dre mor empl, te Ing om every aspect of shcil and senamic sett, Hs Recoming cles thal einen pile lone ray not be sficiont 0 resolve them, Sectoral anil economic aftr ministes, in porcular, need to be actively engage ia the proces of proc

(0u In sorte focus has shiflod avay fom sinply “th envtozoneat” to“ enizonment in the conten

nalts were previously confined o local sources, these exteralities bave be

the envionment, together with the business eornmutity an environmental

voter reason why economl ffie minsuis and oer are showing a greater interest in environmental

‘lide tele growing cost Whereis environmental policies wee “obviously” meee in the cai days environ ets ars now inreasingy asked ati Fer els fore polis, The rest asin ae erp 0m

‘aling” he environmen’ (and ite sevice) fn economic tees Efforts io qoaniy environmental exteralites cross a wie rngeof tes have intensified, hough thes efforts are met wih suspicion hy many for which che

‘ery Hea of placing tn estnoaie “vale” on environmental services is inaphropie N

‘ntingent valuation, cost-benefit sali ak assesment, eegulsiry impact estesement and osteffectveness analysis ave now Fn her ay enstonmentlpoley decisis

shes, hols sh as

As we lok toward the fits, environmen Asa re ily to conte i hecome neeatngly oplek

“The long-term pare of many ervtonmentil problems wil cone more apparent evidence pro the are nvlaton of plltats in ecosystems an ofthe sradiel deneadation of renewable resource seks an qualities

‘The roleof these evosystms in underpinning economic ad sci atvity wil Become clearer will hence 0

«saiine the impacts of enone activities on esosysens Evieeomentl “sien” will tbseore LAS Beaee ngaranec Ôn the other hand, the sbilty of seience to deliver credible solutions w thee robles also ely tobe calld ito question more often nd lchates shout ie ned for “preaation”in desing with environmental

‘We can gieo anticipate tht dessins conserning environmental policy wl nreasngly hay to eiteErted with social and economic policy dessins ina sustainable development contet Two key message will in pati lar pz o be delivered 19 economic an soa policy-makers The Fst ithe es Ht the envionnient itl hase upon which all econonscand social atv bieatly depends this base jeopardise thea these "ri sive ation” will slo he jeopardised Second, nọ longer possible to completely separate economic ad

‘Sei policies fom envionment tees ss "somone eke” were oking fer he enranment Ih aet Io {shiee fall "polly integration” policy-makers the economic and social spheres wll ave to avept more env ronmental esponsbltes cand ite sera,

1.3 Sources o

“This spot examines the recent and projected fate le f the environment to 202 an the press exerted

‘pon it.The projections t 2020 are develope using an OECD glo, dynomic general equim mods! JOBS)

to projet eonomie developments i 1 regions and 26 diferent setts, in combination with the Stockholm Envi- ronment Institute's Poestrfumework io genenatenvioniental projections A Reference Scenario has ben devel- fopedand isused thoughout te repoet Resulso eeted poi situations are compared the Refereace Seeman Demand, production and prices inal sectors and tesions are determined simultaneously in JOBS The sumed household income elasticities ae among the important “devers” athe model The rect how much household demand fora given eategoy of products or services will change when incomes change The assumed subsitaionelanteties between vrious produto factors areas important in determining smlalion esl

‘These elicits tell ow much he composton of factor se wll ange when te restive price hetween factors ters The assumptions used are deseodin greater detail in Ane 2 and in the indivi ehapeso he repo

“The rests from the JOBS model are fed ino the PoeSr Framework, withthe maeoeconomicvarihles st ting the sale of aetvity within the secors modes, Once the esonomi an demographic variables have been entered, projections for enveonmental and resource pressures redeveloped, PoleSat is essentially an accounting ffamewoek for combining economic, ssoare and environmental information 4 examine aleve development scenarios The module slgorithns aad seenaeos rely ont update of the Global Secnario Group's Bending de Carve seearos Raskin ea, 199%; Heaps eta 198),

OECD and some non-OECD data for envionment isies Te base year data Wed in the JOBS model were mostly taken fom the GTAP (Global Troe Analsis Project database developed at Purdue Univesity In addition {othe base year dat, sumptions are made inthe Reference Scenario concerning

~ total GDP developments (hased on OECD Feonomics Department projections):

= poplation growth based on UN mein fertility estimations

~ Ishoursuply (hase on OECD Economics Department estimate and UN population daa and

~ supply and proutiviy of certain agicutral inputs based op OECD Ageiulural Directorate analyses

‘The eforence Scenario is base on current ative nd recent tren, dos ot ake at secon the alo tion or implementation af new pois

[A more deailed sectoral ode! for eansport (MOVE I} was used to develop projections of specie develop- mont and pessuees asing from the anspor sector that were aot Well eoezed inthe Reference Scenario The

‘derlying assumptions ofthe MOVE model are broadly consistent wih de other made usd nthe Reference

‘Scena

In ation tos application in developing the Reference Scenario, the mung framework has also hệt used:o examine the fees of particular envionment policies on economic and environmental conditions Draw ingon previous OECD analyse of poley options avilable for addressing environmental pressures and issue, he inet of potential “polly shocks" were Fist simulated in the JOBS re where, for insta, elects on ip

‘a ind peal value-added for each stor were quantified, The changes compared w the Reference Scenario Were

‘hen fed into the PoleSirs)sterm, which simiaed effets of the ply shocks on environment conditions Because of the nature ofthe modeling exercise and the models avallable the poicy shocks examined quanta tively were primarily ofthe following ipes:

{he removal of subsidies othe proton or consumption of partial products nd

~ the induction of wes or charges on te production or consumption of given produets

Sensitivity analyses on ote exogenous paraneters, such a changes in the sesumions reading atone

‘mos energy efficiency improveneot or transport and ade main, were uo performed

Wile poliey shocks were develope and analyse for particular sectoral pressures or environmental sss and ave desrbed thoughout the report “package of instruments” was also develope tht combines som ofthe

“ey policies for adressing the main environmental concerts of OECD counties i the ext fe decaes Those lements ofthe package o ssruments hat cul he modeled ina meaning way have been pa together a

‘intl policy shock examine the net effec of x eambination of policies both in terms of synergies and in terms

of potential policy ont

‘Consistency has Been sought wi ther OECD moselling exercises uch asthe modelling Work ofthe Eeo-

‘somes Department on getenbouse gas emissions using the GREEN dynamic general equim model, and the Work of he Iteration Energy Agency (IEA) using the paral equilib Worl! Energy Mode Consistency i thease assumptions wa sow, bat bess eerie the ierent scare of heel aswel 8 as tins aboot he fare va ofexogenowsvanbls, the resin pects nesesiily sil 0 sone exer

1.4 Identifying the most pressing environmental concerns

Based onsecen tends ad he ftue outlooks dosed in the chaps the rept emis he most pressing environmental concer facing OECD counsios over the net Iwo decades, 36 Well a8 some ofthe isos sd pressures tha ape corenly bon relalvely well-dressed The overall ress of the analysis an be summed

‘sing the symbols of tas gis These serve to indicate and simpy the major rests, bat re tana exten 9 etal summary of al the conclsions ofthe analysis More specie ndings neon recent tends and pros tions o 2020 for ceonomie secors and envionment ees, are dscuso in te chapters temssives

The"g ra igh” spas esse on the cnviounen or enviromental sss for which recent

‘Mond he been posse su are expels conte athe ue ofr whch he esa nds

‘tie signaling octal responses hat ep seve ernment problem: For the

‘The "yew gt” sigs ares of uncer ox pote poems Ths elt primi 0

‘veoaters presues sn euvonnenal aes for which eure ufecuaning tad {leon human heh or ecossems) Forth odrsunding te pesshes and mentoring the ste of the envionment and pecaion I yellow phe fers sel fearon Bete needed when adetsing these ses ress

“Te "ted eh” signals resus or environmental condos for which the recent ends ave

1.5, Structure and contents of the report

“The concep framework underlying the analysis and structure inthe Emiranmental Outlook is the OECD Pressure-State-RosponseFamework (PSR) lo this famework prssute indicates pressures on the eavionment from human atvites, stat indicates changes inthe tte ofthe eavieoamen! adits natal resources res from these presares ad “response” indices weit response to changes in the state of the environment (soe Figure 12}

Fgue +2 TheOECDPI ~ State Response (PSA) framework

“The underlying dkvers ofthe pressures and of ensrsamenl change — popaton growth, economic dev

‘pment wae at investnenlidtaisain, nological snpoxatioa, and consumpson paterns are discussed in Section I uf the Envdnamental Quo, Sections IV foes on the cet and peste future development ia select eeusomie sectors and for selected envionment ates Given the resources and tine availabe ws ecieio foci on tose sectors evant oe which tere ws high policy relevance and sh

‘fet mer (Bo mm withi an w18o the OECD} Among the sectors an sues not examine tam this Ourookaedhe sevice sear, ours an sil quay Section V examines seectod crose-cting ites a= tothe soil and economic aspects of envioamental sage, iteluing human Heath and teens onan he

“Si ah hư erase and fsoutce eeiney acoss the ecosoi The fina section Seto VI seis past ad posible futitedeveloprents in nttutonal amewinks fr he environment a anales th enti eltecs of paskagesot instruments tha cole aopied hy OUCD eae 9 aldress ero pressing

“ovina problems ered Wits") ees in he Ota

‘Sivton Me ergy limite Chongs,Tanspoet an ie sity

Section Ws Howseolls, Selected Indosties and Waste

Sretion WE Selected Crosscting ese

Section Vir nsttutonal Frameworks and Poliy Packs s for Addessing Envronmeotl Problems

Using the Pressure Sute-Responsefeamework 19 structure the individual shaptes, the major’ of the 2S chapters ofthe Oumbok follow one of the types of sucutes, depending on wheter te chapter describes &

Te chapters examining socal, céonimie or echaolagsal drivers of envionment chang fia briefly cut- line he inks Between the divers and the enviroment then describe the cen es nl projet oullook be changes in he deer followed by an anys hn fess changes might fet environmental conditions, Whete evant some policy ase regarding the diver ands elect on the eoviroament are discussed

Bosh the secon chapters ad envionmental sue chapters conchae with an examination of some ofthe nin pliey options in see ude sousiteration in OECD enue for addessng envionment problems This nciades, ere eal, analysts ofthe port lets tha snplenenting Hose plies may hae on heen rover he econo al putichlar sectors Sat analy sma psible by comparing the policy socks sth he Reference Senso The mai caepores of policy options extmine ile chapel slevelopment int diffusion, epultory inssments, economis instruments, voluntary agreements and information and other inseunens (ce Table 12)

‘uble 12 The array of environment

pele options esd inthe Outlot

= a —

Teclogcl —folccstiwenmnae ie dncopnenondne | at

| developmen ‘ofenvionmentally benign technologies, and limit the use ‘etswes can bent idetecasegea develpmentSpgoneemonmentl ` tian sieocinicer Technology information provision each sod

{idm many athe poly tnsuments bes blow ro Seetpment

‘Specie technologies ‘ce cnesonmeral only akomatoos x practices ining the development

Economie CN Esnone rteenh hpioly relkealrcslrer Charges ces Te

‘conc malig nen me Sosy gvingpeliterescanaaued " Beportund syeme co taal stncmemoml Enea seis Tremnbe develop len co abceren opens Caonowic Renee rend

‘vumene ro proves recone ats ation Perm th can ete er emma tet (Econ sokenrnduced gh sage number a

len Approaches abet Es moeconmiment N oimprove 0nlakenlemmiumens ican sence

teu and econo ware Te ate eich

‘eu on ey awoken ntccoomiey cet

REFERENCES:

EEA Euopean Eavionment Agen) |200, xscape 000, EaropeanErvitonment Agen, Copenhagen esp, €, E Kemp-Benedct and P Raskin 993), Comestonl er: Teal Depo “Bending the Carve Snort, folestar Seros Report No.9, Stockoim Eavitooment inti, Botton

from! OECD wa Dynamic Now Member commits, OECD, Pas

‘OECD 199), OECD Eninmenel Data Comendam 1929, OCD, Pri

askin, © Gallopin & Gutman, A Hammond and £ Sư 1998), ein he Cane Tours Gea Seay PoieSarSenearepot No 8, Secbhoim Exvrsnment nat, Boston

LUNCSD United Nations Commision on Sustainable Development (197, Cal Tats Cla Chae ant Sue: the Deco, United Nations New York

‘UNEP (United Nations Environment Programe! (1997), Cll Ennonment Ooi 197, United Nations Enviro Trên Peeretme) Na)

[UNEP (2000), Chal Emieamen On 2000, United Nations Environment Programme, Nahi

Section IT

ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS

‘changes might affect the impact of the diver on environmental conditions Where relevant, some policy issues regarding the driver and its effect on the

‘environment ae discussed,

Demographic and Labour Force Developments

+ The shar of peopl oer 60 ys in OBCD cone i expo inset unjust over 1796 ja 200010

+ Urn area expected scone eprom the neat we deces epi hou tans bat with

Tower growth rates thn ding the lại tho eas

+ The grow ates for be working age poplaton (18-64 yeas ot) in OBCD seghns ar epee w contin 10

2.1 Introduction

“The environmental impacts of changes in population size and sata tition area ener in th OECD

and nom OECD counties These impacts are linked to production eves in economic sectors land use patterns

tural resource 6e, and waste and pollution geneaton Qualiaive aspects of populations ~ suchas ection

loves lunes, workforce participation, age structure ct —and how these inflaenee consumption and rode

‘on pates ae potently sigateant drivers af exonone and enviroamenal change

“The main demographic ends in OECD counties are quite diferent from those i developing couse

While popoltion levels are sil slowly increasing in most OECD regions, there is aendeney towards stabilisation

inthe period 0 2020 In non-OECD cegions population levels are continuing to grow though ata slower rate than

inthe past Population sizes in OECD counties at significantly ifluenced by migration levels, with many ofthe

aiviag migrants of Working age The ageing of the population i OECD counties will fet demographic pes

‘sires onthe environment ~ particulary through changer n consumption putes and te proparion of te os

population thats active in the Isour Tore Magy developing counties, on the other hand, ate charsctersed by

‘ery large shares of young peopl, due to bk high Be ates and redoced child mortality

Population density and changes in setlement pattems also have important implications forthe envieon-

nent, Many counties are continuing to experience an exponsion of urbanisation ~ both in levis of «growing

percentage of the population living in urban areas and items of the physical expansion of urban azeas to

Tal zones (ethan spat) As fate popelation density of urban areas is eoncered, the environmental

‘est re mọt enlrely lear On the one han high poplaton density end to high ea presses on natal

Tesources, ch as wer and ar ql, as well as natural habitats, On the ether hand, urban ares sre more cm

‘act than suburban or rata areas, with less land used pe capita, more elective dssbution of eleetcty and

waterless travelling, an more centralised wast colle

tion Io terms ofthe piysical expansion of urban z0ne5

through urban spa he environmental effets te more

‘leary negative Urban sprain most cases causes dis

proportionally high levels of Is we, energy csp

tion and resoree use compared with more central high

‘ensty zones in ities,

‘The physteal expansion

of urban areas orb spas)

‘nce high bi ales and high mosaliy rats fesuling in slow or no population ghost ln He ea of indus

‘atlon, 2 demographic ansion tok place wit death rate falling desically wile birth rates mained high,

‘esting in very rapid population grow Ths was lagely the result of improved medial ear and higher comes,

‘vith eseexposie to health sk ih 8 poor dts an poe vingconitions are ranston Rs ake place that of detining bith tes, This has pomrily Been dven by actors sich a the greater pareipaton of women Inthe workforce a dramatic redtion in infant moral the indution of socal security and pension systems, snd the avaliabliy of elable bith cote

Overt, a real ofthese changes, the population in OECD counties and the ret of the word has grown rapidly since the 1950s, but with shower growth in the 1590s, His projected o exhibit even lower growth rates in

‘he period o 2020, secompanied hy an ageing ofthe popslion in OECD repens

‘The population in OECD counties increased fom about 1 ilion in 18010 | lion in 2000 average rl

‘increase 08%) and is pojected to increase o 12 billon in 2029 (average annual increase: 0.4%) (Figure 21) Some (OECD regions are experieneing very low (ess than 172) nual nereses, an the tral balance (is mins sath seven been negative ina mmiberof OECD counties, Wester Exe, as well as apn & Keep etd to face decease in teal population afer 2010,

Figure 2 also shows projected ttl percentage changes in population levels inthe perio from 1995 to 2020

‘Te srowin tes of ttl population have declined and ate projected t eonnue to deine in Villy al regions ofthe world over the peed upto 2020, The total worl population was 44 billion sn 1980, 6.1 billion i 2000, {averape annual ncresse: 1.6%) and estimated lo he 75 billion in 2020 lverage annual ness! 11) Thus,

‘he World population esl ineresing, bot more slowly thin before

Besides nate ineweases the populations of many counties also increase due to pet migration, Since th mi 1980s, international migration hs apy gunedin importance ass component of population ckange The word

‘otal iteration migrants increase font 75 lio a 1965 to 119 lion a 1990, wih natal onthe that peaked st 2.6% in 1985-1990, Among OECD regions, Western Europe and Nomth America have aeeped he highest numberof interational migrants (sith total immigrant populations of 24 ad 25 milion respectively

n 1090, while pan and Korea have experience ow immigration (300 BO an 0 migrants respectively in

‘he early 190s) Net migration isthe source of 75 ofthe population growth in EU counties and will mos likely

he their main source of population crease to the short and medive-cr,

Saeco

Figue 2.4 Total popuation, 1980-2020

Changing age pyramids wil also have important implications Forth ability of seity to generate slice income suppor dependants, Under curent circumstances likel thatthe proportion of dependant in society (Ge thse not atively panizipating ia the workforce wll few in OECD counties as the ageing of society results ina significant increase nected people (Figure 22) A number of counties are sleady considering policies 10

‘ales hs, cluding rising the eirement age wo ghe the abou fore

‘One way in which ageing popolations in OECD

ovnires are likely o affect envitonmental presses is “The fect of asin popolations

though changing consumption pattems (see also (Chaper 5) Theres stl substantial speculation a8 to the ‘onthe ensironment not well understood, ae

‘nt testa that wl aut ram these developments More

Teste ine andthe beter heath of etn persona may

lead to higher consomption levee (eg through incre tourism ial) oF relatively moderate or foe con

“simpion effects (eg thrgh staying at home or lower income level, Furthermore, decision how to rede oF increase working time (dal wel) annul, early retirement.) have major implications on spatial setlement patezns ad thus on te envionment

Figure 2.2 OECD age pyramids, 1998 and 2020,

‘The increase n the tal population of working age, however is ed to an increase Inthe absolute number of

‘unemployed in OECD regions, such shat ts now 57% higher than in 1980

Along listo economic and socal actor lect hour force paticpation rats, eluding the partition of

‘women in the workforce (hich corey varies gnilicany aesbss OECD countries and worldwie), ation levels, changes in retirement age, ee For example, higher eucaton levels have mixed inpats on labour free Partspation rates Higher education tends to decrease employment levels among persons under 30 yeas of age

ss anversiy aendanes i prolonged, but may neease participation of older age groups it leas o greater job Saustcton Because ofthe event diculy i projecting the gt mpoets of various enticing ends on labour force parciation rales, the Reference Senso lor this Oullonk assumes tht conan! shire ofthe polation

‘age erween 1S and 64 parcipates in he labour force,

“The grow inthe smber of working-age poople varies considerably etoss OECD regions with Canada oxic & United States showing the highest projected ierese, and the regions af Japan & Korea and Westem Europe showing » projected decrease (Figure 2-3) In OECD counties a whole, he total amber of persons a

‘his age group is expected 1 inereae by 0.6% anally fom 1998 to 2010 — he rom 748 to $10 milion — and

‘hen stabilise between 2010 and 2020, For non-OECD regions, the numberof people of working age is expected

te increase by 1.9% annually from 195 to 2010 an 08% anmlly over he pied 2010-2020,

Recent abourarkel developments an ature prspestshighlight he increase in parttime working al mone

‘red andfeibie working ives eg working rom home, shift work, te) The effects of mare parttime workers

nd generally shorer working weeks onthe environment area lear Wile they may eafto im time avalhle for consumption and wave, they may also lad 1 less disposable income Tor such activites Similarly the

‘environmental impacts ofthe noticeable tend toward an increase in tele-commmuting (working fom home using now information ecologies) ate patobvious although a number of observers expt that this may ead redaced

"wansporation use, with an eesing in pressures on the et unmest fom commuting

Figue2.3, Persons aged between 15 and 64 years, 1980-2020,

‘average annua iacrese of 9, Ii expectod increase uly eligi trot OECD elon verte nest twenty

‘years lowing popelation evel, which show tendency toward tubsaton athe endo hispid Plain

‘erst ies sonal arose OECD countries nd win them, with mos of he popelaton concentrated in cst zones an ivr valleys and emote areas, ike meus and dese often beng sparsely populated