Tài liệu Hydropower development and management docx

- Hydroelectric Can Don IPP is expected to be finnished 78MW but in practice it just completed 1 unit 38,8MW in 12/2003 However, 2004, there is NM coal thermal electricity Formosa IPP 15

Hydropower development and management

ADB TA 4903-VIE

WATER SECTOR REVIEW PROJECT

………

Prepared for: Final Report Prepared by:

HA TIEN LUY Energy & Hydropower Specialist

05 / March / 2008

A Overview on hydro-power development status in national scope

1 Overview on Vietnam’s hydropower resources

Vietnam‟s hydro-power resources are very plentiful and distributed widespread in national scope Vietnam is one of 14 countries which are rich in hydro-electric resources in the world Total hydro-power resources potential of more than 2200 mini, medium and large rivers (just mention rivers with more than 10 km in length) in national scope is assessed as follows: 1.1 Theorical potential: Vietnam‟s hydro-power resources is evaluated to be 300 billion KWh, with capacity of 34.647 to 35.000 MW

1.2 Techno-economic potential: Vietnam hydro-power is about 82-100 billion KWh with capacity range from 18.600 to 20.000 MW as evaluated (about 30 to 33% of theorical potential) in which:

- Large and medium hydro-power plants (the kind with capacity of the same or more than 30 MW/1 plant): as expected there are about 150 such plants, with total capacity around 18.000 – 18.640 MW (about 90-93 % of total hydro-power teachno-economic potential)

See diagram 1.1 and table 1.1

- Small hydro-power stations (with capacity smaller than 30.000 KW/1 station): it is expected

to have total of capacity about 1.600 -2000 MW (about 7-10% of total hydro-power resource economic-technological potential

2 Operating and constructing hydro-power plants (to be put into operation in 2010)

At present (to lately 2007), total machine capacity of Vietnam‟s operating hydro-power plants

is 4.460 MW, many year‟s average electricity is about 18 billion kwh Therefore, more than 20% of total Vietnam‟s economic-technological potential was exploited

Regarding pump storage hydro-electricity at present, 10 feasible economic-technical projects with total machine capacity about 10.000 MW was planned (Son La has 7 projects, Hoa Binh:

1 projects, Ninh Thuan: 1 projects, and Binh Thuan: 1 project) Now, pre-feasible reports of

a Hydro-electric stations put into operation ( to December 2007)

Total such hydro-power plants (to Dec 2007) are: 4,457 MW In which:

( i )- Total capacity of medium and large hydro-power plants which has come into operation (to Dec., 2007) is 4.407MW including 12 plants : Hoa Binh ( 1920 MW), Thác Bà ( 108 MW), Vĩnh Sơn ( 66 MW), Sông Hinh ( 70 MW), Yaly ( 720 MW), Sê san 3 ( 260 MW ), Đa Nhim (160 MW), Trị An ( 400 MW), Hàm Thuận ( 300 MW ), Đa Mi ( 175 MW), Thác Mơ ( 150 MW)

Total capacity of these hydro-electric project is about 6.500 MW

At present, there are 19 hydro-electric projects invested by EVN have and have being constructed, in which Son La hydro-electric project with capacity of 2400 MW is the Asia‟s bigest, is expected to go into operation lately 2010 and finish totally in lately 2012 The following is list of executing hydro-electric projects invested by EVN (in order from the North

to the South)

See tables TD.4- 01, Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 )

TĐ 4- 02.List of constructing hydro-electric plants invested by EVN

Source : Master Plan for Electric Power Development in Vietnam 2005-2025 (MPEPD 6)

/ in Vietnamese : “ Quy hoạch Phát triển Điện lực Việt nam-Giai đoạn2006-2025 ( TSD 6 )”

c Hydro-electric plants with N> 30 MW invested by other Vietnam’s companies (not belong to EVN) follwing to BOT form IPP is constructing to go into operation in the period

of 2006 – 2010 :

Total capacity : 920 MW

B¶ng T§ 4 01 Các nhà máy thuỷ điện đã đưa vào vận hành

( tính đến thời điểm tháng 12 năm 2007 )

Table TD 4 – 01 Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 )

No

River Basin

Project name Province

Hong & Thai

Binh Da Hoa Binh Hoa Binh 1920 8,160

Gia Kon Tum 720 3,589

Ham Thuan

Lam Binh Thuan 300 957

Dong Binh thuan 175 590

Lam dong- Ninh thuan 160 1,025

13 Small Hydropower ( in all country ) : N= 50 MW / E = ( about ) 200 GWh

14 Total Existing HydroPower Capacity of National: N = 4,457 MW / E = 19,036 GWh

Bảng TĐ 4 - 02

Các dự án thuỷ điện đang thi công (để đưa vào vận hành vào thời kỳ 2010-2015 )

do EVN làm chủ đầu tư ( Theo thứ tự từ Bắc vào Nam ) –

Công suất (MW) Capacity

Chiều cao đập (m) Dam High

Sông River

11 Đồng Nai 3 Lâm Đồng 240 100 ĐồngNai ĐồngNai

12 Đồng Nai 4 Lâm Đồng 270 128 ĐồngNai ĐồngNai

Thuân

15 Buôn Tou srah Đắc Lắc 86 85 Serepoc Serepoc

Bảng TĐ 4 03 Các dự án EVN đang triển khai công tác chuẩn bị đầu tư

Công suất

N ( MW) Capacity

Điện lượng

E ( GWh ) Energy

Lưu Vực Sông River Basin

River

TB

Da

3.1.1 Compare real energy demands and one according to the forecast

TSD V is carried out in period 1998-1999, therefore, results forcasted (energy and capacity) may be compared to real data in period 2000 - 2005 real values is higher than all methods of forecast (high, low, medium) of TSD V High case has smallest disparity between forecasted value and real data The reason is that TSD V was established at the time when economic financial crisis happened in the area, therefore forecast of economic growth speed (according to national wide and economic sectors in common), invested capital estimated as well as reconstruction of industrial zones, export processing zones, large factories all are at rather modest starting point So, commodity energy and maximum additional charge capacity are smaller than ones in reality during last years

Comparision of energy demand forecasted results of TSD 5 with the fact of encreasing energy demand (2000-2005) is shown in table 2.1

Table 2.1 Forecasted results in TSD 5 in comparision with real value

case

Base case

High case

Low case

Base case

High case

After assessing the high rise of additional charge in years of 1999 - 2001, economic and envestment growth efficency due to timely and flexible managing methods of goverment, early 2002, electric sector actively revised some contents of TSD V such as: 2005 electricity demand was forecasted to be 53,4 TWh, 15% higher than the one of 46,5 TWh; and one of

2010 is 96,1 Wh, 23% higher than one of 78,5 TWh (high method of TSD V); push up some resource projects and transfered and loaded networks ext Therefore, during 2001 to 2005 electricity sector basically met highly increasing demands of electricity, serving economic and social development Table 2.4 and picture 2.1 show us sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995-

2005 period

One of big impacts which affected electricity demand recently is Asian Southeast area‟s financial monetary crisis in 1997 it caused a decline in foreign investment and internal industry during those years However, to 2001-2005 period, industry and commercial service sectors in the country thrived again, foreign direct investment (FDI) also returned Vietnam‟s electricity demands in last decade reflected that Through picture 2.1, we could see, if the crisis was not happened, it‟s likely that the forecast in total diagram IV would be rather accurate while beginning TSD V was rather pessimistic And, lastly, revises in TSD V is timely

Table 2.4 Electricity forecast for prodution according to TSDs compared to reality

Unit: GWh

year TSD 4

TSD 5 High case

-TSD 5 revised -Base case

Reality Reality /

TSD 5 revised (%)

Picture 2.1 sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand

in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995-2005 period

Note: Reality = thực tế TSD 5 revised - Base case = TSD 5 HC PA cơ sở

TSD 5 - High case = TSD 5 PA cao TSD 4 = TSD 4

Hydroelectric demand in the period of 2001-2005 tends to be different as expected in TSD V

While, it is forecasted that areas with fast increase in electricity demand are Ha Noi, Hai

Phong, Quang Ninh (development triangle), §a nang, Quang Nam - Quang ngai (economic axis of Central region) Ho chi Minh city, Ba Ria-vòng Tau, §ong Nai, Hai Phong, in fact, just increases upper 10%, Ha Noi 12,3%, Ho Chi Minh city 13% other areas increase faster than estimated such as Vinh Phuc 21,2%, Hung Yen 25,5%, Bac Ninh 15,1%, Whole Central region increase 14,8%, provincial region belonging to electricity company II increase 20,2% in average (Binh Duonng 34%, §ong Nai 18,2%, Ba Ria-Vung Tau 16,1%, Bac Lieu 18,9%, Binh Thuan 16,5% ) This change is assessed to be caused by following reasons: Investers‟s quantity and capacity (Vietnamese and foreign investers) in period of 2000 –

2005 increased strongly, policy for attracting investment create favorable condition for companies to work in some provinces, however, some provinces haven‟t had keen change

with the mechanism and lose the opportunity to attract investment

3.1.2 Assessment of electric resources development implimentation

Table 2.2 shows total capacity of electricity resources and amount of capacity put into use

2001 – 2005 according to electric plants Of which, in some years, capacity of hydroelectricity have maximum rate in Vietnam‟s enlectricity system (Ocupy about 36% in

( coal,oil ) 845 12.60 1445 16.60 1445 16.10 1445 14.10 1445 12.60 Gas turbine +

Diesel 1477 22.00 2649 30.40 2649 27.90 3117 30.30 3444 30.10 IPP+other 506 7.50 506 5.80 1287 13.50 1596 15.50 2439 21.30

Picture 2.2 Energy resource capacity 2001-2005 and years’ Pmax

Note : Hydro Themal(coal,oil) Gas turebine,Diesel & other Pmax

Diagram 2.2 show that total capacity of resources in comparision with maximum additional charge (Pmax)in years of 2001 – 2005

In period of 2001 – 2002, rate of progress of electric plant put into operation basically timely

as planed of TSD V Although years of 2003 – 2005, rate of progress of electricity resources slower than the plan proposed in TSDV

In 2003 there are 2 projects which are slower than rate of progress:

- Gas turebine Phu My 4 is expected to be 2x150MW but untill 3/2004 just work Up to 5/2004, steam turebine completed

- Hydroelectric Can Don IPP is expected to be finnished 78MW but in practice it just completed 1 unit 38,8MW in 12/2003

However, 2004, there is NM coal thermal electricity Formosa IPP 150MW put into operation and be added works compared to the plan of TS§ V

In 2005, according to TS§V, as expected, works put into operation are: expanded coal thermalelectric plant Uong bi 300MW, 1 unit of hydropower plant Se San 160MW, Coal

Thuû ®iÖn NhiÖt ®iÖn(Than,dÇu) Tua bin khÝ, Diesel vµ kh¸ c Pmax

thermalelectric plant Cao Ngan IPP 100MW and Gas turebine of Phu My 2.1 expanded In reality, almost mentioned projects are late in progress rate: coal thermal electric plant Uong

Bi in April and stably operate from June,2006; Coal thermalelectric plant Cao Ngan just number 1 unit completed in Dec.2005, number 2 unit completed in quater I, 2006; gas turebine Phu My 2.1 is delayed to May 2006

As recently report, 2006, there would have 1700MW not follows the plan

- The North has 600MW coal thermalelectric late in progress rate: Hai Phong thermalelectric I

is started construction in Nov.2005, as estimated, number 1 unit would come into operation Oct.2008; number 2 unit would later than the firt from 4 to 6 months; Thermalelectric Cam Pha I 300MW has just start work; besides, number 1 unit -114MW of Tuyen Quang hydropower plant also untill 8-10/2007 just go into operation, 1 year later than the plan

- The South contains upper 1000MW gas thermalelectricity later than the plan of TS§ V: mixed gas turebine Ca Mau 750MW just start construction and expectedly 4/2007 just completed gas turebine 2x250MW and 11/2007 just completly finnished; thermal electricity O Mon I unit - 300MW also just been signed contract EPC and expected to go into operation in quarterI II/2009

In 2007, some electric resource woul be later than the plan of TS§ V such as thermalelectric plant: Ninh Binh II – 300MW, gas thermal electric plant Nhon Trach I; O Mon I machine group

2 – 300MW

In addition, there are some hydropower plants such as A Vuonng I – 210MW, §akDrinh 100MW, §aktih 72MW, Chu linh-Coc san 70MW, Na Le 90MW and some other mini and medium plants are also late from 1-3 year as progress rate of the plan

Table 2.3 Capacity of electric resource expected to put in to use in period 2005-2007 ( MW )

Incoming resource capacity North Centre & South Total

- Expected to put in to use in period

3.2 General assessment on implimentation of electric resources development

- Period of 2001 – 2005 basically electric resources developmetn basically satisfied the need

of socio and economic development with additional charge of high

- 2006 – 2007estimatedly many electric works would be put into operation slowly due to many reasons of lack of experience in contracting process of some projects, slow imcoming eqipment, difficulties in compenstion, lack of investment capital, lenghening in capital borrowing procedure, weakness in project management, almost IPP projects don‟t ensure progress of project as registered schedule Electric demand is forecasted to continue increase from15 – 17%/year, this situation would lead to the risk of servere unbalance on coming years‟s demand, especially in the North

- Slow original projects in the period of 2006 – 2007 woul come rapid-firely in 2008 – 2010, that could cause a serries of other difficulties such as capital mobilisation, investment

3.3 General assessment of project implementation during the previous

phase of TSD V

After nearly 5 years of implementation of TSD V, here are some general assessments:

- Demand for additional electrical power has increased rapidly and continuously, attaining the

highest level in the area

- Since forecasted electrical demand in TSD V was lower than actual needs, EVN submitted

a number of corrections to the contents of the TSD V to the Government in 2002, this

included forecasted electrical production demand in 2005 from 53 – 55 billion kWh and in

2010 from 96,1 – 105 billion kWh Actual need in 2005 was 5.5 billion kWh In early 2005

(May), low power reserves combined with suddenly hot weather and the lowest water levels

in rivers of the Northern region for a number of years, many hydroelectric power plants such

as Hoa Binh and Thac Ba had to operate below dead level but still had shortages of power in

the North

- Due to timely direction and management of the Government, together with great effort,

electrical suppliers essentially ensured a stable supply of electricity to meet the needs of

social-economic development; to contribute to general social-economic development; and

although electrical costs increased day by day, the actual increase in the price of electricity

was not significant EVN sales in 2004 reached more than 33 million VND, double figures

from 2000 Profits maintained from 1.7 to over 2 billion VND, with an annual budget of 2.2 –

2.7 billion VND

- Additional charge increases rapidly and constantly, reach the top level in the area

- Electrical source rise from over 6000MW in 2000 up more than 11000MW in 2005, 1.9

times rising There is average over new electrical source capacity 1000MW every years

According to the plan of 2006 – 2008, the power reserved source is gong to be low,

especially the South is always in the shortages of power despite of 500kV line combined the

South-North by 2 circuits

- The density of NMD …IPP, Pot has been higher, 2006, July this comprises about 21% of

total capacity of the hydroelectric plants in the whole country

- The new power source is applied with modern technology, productivity is high, therefore it

helps to increase yield and decrease the price

- The speed construction grid is quite fast Total of quantity transition lines to late 2004

increase 1.3 times (22kV) and 1.6 times (110kV); total capacity of transformer stations rise

1.5 to 2 times in comparison with 2000 If implementation follows the plan of 2005, total of

quantity of lines 220kV rise 1.75 times; total lines 110kV rises 1.5 times in comparison with

2000

- Electricity grid is designed that has good power reserves, good supply for the economic

centre The national electricity grid has covered the whole of 64 provinces, 97% of districts,

96,6% of towns and more 90,4% of households In electricity grid management the number

of breakdowns the500kV systemhas decreased considerably and that on 200kV system has

decreased too, but not stable Breakdowns on 110kV network are still high

- General assessments about finance is to map TSD 4 and TSD 5 According to the

committed roadmap, to make sure capacity of paying debt and demand of investment capital,

the electricity price should be about 7 cent/kWh from 1999 The rate of balance of capital is

not high, debt coefficient

- Although the price now is just only about 4.91cent/KWh, with the attempt of the whole

electrical suppliers that aim to decrease maximum cost of business production (cost of loan

interest, cost of fuel…); to moderate power gainings maximum, take amortization more than

10% but in reality to quickly withdraw capital, this helps to re-invest, therefore the electrical

suppliers by themselves balance their financial demand and investment capital in 1999-2004

However, elements of input is getting higher, if electricity price increased roadmap is

continued, the electricity price can not meet the production cost and there are not capital to

re-invest for extension of electric system Thus, there are not attraction for expanding the

generating power market

4, Forecast areas with biggest hydropower potential in the period of 2010-2020, considering 2025 and motivate activities toward the forecast

4.1 Viewpoint of hydropower development planning

Starting from experience learned during process of carrying out studies and implementation of last NEPDPs, some important issues is taken account in electricity planning VI are:

1 Develop equally electric resource capacity in The North, Central and Sourth, ensure providing electricity to every interregional electricity system

2 Ensure reasonable ratio among kinds of electric resources of primary energy fuel nationwide and every region in every planned period:

The North focuses on hydropower and coal thermo-electric construction; the South develops hydropower, gas and coal thermal electricity; the Central develops hydropower and after that further develops gas thermo-electricity (if discover gas) and coal thermo-electricity

- Continue to further develop thermal power plants in the South to take advantage of gas resources and create condition for promotion of exploring more gas resource

- Continue to take priority over hydropower construction, especially multipurpose projects: against flood, providing water, generating electricity…

- In other hand, it is necessary to pay attention on coal thermoelectric plants, includes ones in the South

3 In every region, take priority over developing thermo-electric resources located near additional charge centre to reduce far transmit

4 It is necessary to carry out early invested projects to import electricity from Laos, Cambodia and the South of China

5 Take priority over developing new electricity projects such as mini hydropower plant (capacity

of 30MW), wind electricity, solar electricity, biomass electricity, geothermal electricity

6 Have measures to develop electric resources, take account of the risk and progress rate of construction which may be later than as expected

7 After finding a measure with low cost and ensure the norm of safety and reliance to provide electricity, it needs calculate investment manually in planning period, then check feasibility of the proposed measure of investment capital, balance in total investment capital of whole society

8 in the future, EVN would just manage essential electric plants in electric system such as Son

La, Lai Chau hydropower plants, nuclear electric plants almost other electric plants would be managed by domestic and foreign joint-stock and private companies (IPP, BOT, ) A competitive electric market would gradually be formed and develop Therefore, electric resources planning need clarify kinds of thermal electric plants in electric system and operation measure following additional charge diagram so that the government could regulate importance, specific tasks as well as appropriate electric cost of expected resources to maintain security of electric providing but still create competition and enhance economic efficiency in electric resource construction and operation

4.2 Methodology and calculating condition to plan and develop electric resources

In NEPDP of period IV (1995 – 2005) and period V (2000 – 2010) recentlyy, optimal problem for electric development is to use measure of motivate planning through WASP program Though, this is famous computer program and so far, it is still be used by electric planners in many countries but it also shows some shortcomings such as: regarding whole electric system as only button, not take account of transmitting limit of connect lines

So, new feature in the methodology of electric planning problem electric planning VI is to

find solution to maximum balanced development of electric resources in every region, taking into account of efficiency and shortcomings of connect lines to ensure providing electricity safely, reliably in every region and nation wide

4.2.1 Rank hydro-power projects

NEPDP V ranks the list of construction investment of 31 NM hydro electricity in period of

2001 – 2010 and takes account of 2020 So far, there are 23 works constructed and under construction Since 2001 to 2004, there are 5 hydroelectric plants put into operation with total capacity1343MW Besides, there are some mini hydropower works constructed and put into operation in 2004 such as Nam Mu, Na Loi, Ry Ninh,

Now, 20 hydropower plants are being constructed with total capacity about 3200MW, of which 15 works belong to EVN

In addition, in the country, many mini and medium hydro plants (range from 10 to 50MW) with a total of capacity about 350 - 400MW are being constructed to come into operation in the period now to 2010

13 projects were planned to be constructed and started construction in late 2005 and 2006; and come into operation in the period 2009 – 2010 with a total of capacity up to upper 1900MW, 9 hydroelectric plants of which belong to EVN

It‟s expected that after 2010, there remains 15 hydropower plants in progress of establishing Pre-F/S, F/S, ladder planning report with a total of capacity upper 3500MW

Intermediate report of advisory joint venture SWECO-STAKRAFT-NORPLAN on national hydroelectric planning studies– (NHPS 2) in the period 2, on the base of researching terrain map 1/50000, field work, update techno-economic calculation standards, social-environmental affects, ranked 21 hydroelectric works planned or expected to be developed in the period after 2010 NHPS 2 added more 4 works into the ranking study including:

- Trung Son 250 -:- 310MW ( Ma - Chu river basin): is upper ladder of Ban Uon hydroelectric plant This plant combining with Ban Uon hydropower plant III - 80MW would have a total of capacity 330MW

- Hoi Xuan : 75 -:- 96MW (Ma - Chu river basin)

- Song Bung 5 : 50 -:- 85MW ( Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin)

- Nam Na : 200 -:- 300MW (top ladder of Da river)

The project consulted the latest ranking of advisory joint venture in NHPS 2 about mentioned

21 hydropower works techno-economic ranking index is chosen according to 100 mark scale, the same with the ratio between B/C of each project per B/C of the most beneficial project (including electricity efficiency, water irrigation and against flood) The rank according

to efficiency (rural electrification, promotion of health and education, roads, provincial investment, landscape creation…) and impacts of environment, society is calculated by the index of projects with the worst social environmental effect per the index of projects considered at 100 mark scales, specifically as following table

Table 7.1 The rank of total hydroelectric projects ( # )

No Project name

N (MW)

E (GWh) B/C

Ranking according

to economy

techno-Ranking according to social

environment

Total ranking (order)

(# ) Consult the national hydropower planning research in period 2 ( of advisory joint venture SWECO-NORPLAN)

According to the collective ranking result, 5 highest ranked projects are: Nho Que 3, Lai Chau, Thuong Kon Tum, Huoi Quang, Song Bung 2

According to the researching result of the project “Pump Storage Hydropower (PSHP) and to work at peak load of electric generation system (JICA-2004), 3 areas which have potential to develop PSHP are Phu Yen §ong, Phu Yen Tay ( S¬n La province) and Bac Ai (Ninh Thuan) In each area, it is possible to built 1000 – 2000MW PSHP

According to the resolution no.3837/Q§-BCN on November 22nd, 2005 of ministry of industry

on ratification of PSHP planning, 2 areas expectedly given priority to develop first PSHP are

§ong Phu Yen (Son La province) and Bac ai (Ninh Thuan)

4.2.2 Assess ability to provide coal and gas fuel to electric production

As the draft development target of Vietnam oil sector up to 2015 , oriented to 2025, total gas resource (includes parallel gas and natural gas) from about 5 billion m3 now would increase about 11,1 billion m3 in 2010, 14,6 billion m3 in 2015 and 14 - 15,6 billion m3 in 2020, of which about 63 – 68% gas amount lies in continental shelf in the East (Southern Con Son, Cuu Long), the remains are in the Western- Sourthern continental sheft (Malai-Tho Chu: PM3-CAA, Cai Nuoc, Block B, 52/97, 46/02 )

Gas demands for other sectors includes gas for production of nitrogenous fertilizer (NM Phó

Mü, Cµ Mau) and stell industry, pottery & porcelain, cement are forecasted to increase from

5 million m3

currently to 1,75 billion m3

in 2010 and increase about 1,8 – 2 billion m3

in the years after 2010

With detail calculation of maximum exploitation capacity coal mine, October, 2005 TVM&CN company estimated amount of domestic exploited coal which be provided to electric production in the period of 2006 – 2025, gathered No 5 Hon Gai (heat energy ~ 5500kcal/kg) and collected in the following table:

Table 7.2 Capacity to providing coal to electric production ( a )

Therefore, new electric resources would have to base on coal thermal electric plants and nuclear electric plant If providing coal to electric production as above table 7.2, around since

2016, it must be imported coal for coal thermal electricity in the Sourth and up to 2022, need import coal in the North

4.2.3 Nuclear electric plants

In TS§V, it‟s considered and calculated options to put nuclear electric plants into operation the number 1 generator with capacity from 800 to 1350MW in the period 2017 – 2019 The prefeasible research‟s report (Pre-F/S) of nuclear electric project was been finnished in 2004 and submitted to the goverment Proposal of the report is that together with economic competition of nuclear electricity compared to imported coal thermal electricity, advanced technology, enhancing resources diversification, reduction of depending on imported fuel, promoting energy security and be premise for development of the country industrialisation and modernisation, need a further deep research to put nuclear electricity in use According

to the target of nuclear energy development for peace approved by the government in 2005,

up to 2020, the first nuclear electric plant would be put into operation with the scale 2000MW

It is expected that the first nuclear electric plant would need insert machine 1 since 2019 Scale of the plant is 2,1000MW in 2020 and up to 4 x 1000MW in 2025 Sites for nuclear electric plant construction are compared then chosen to have the most favorable site It is Phuoc Dinh (Ninh Thuan)

4.2.4 Ability to import electricity from countries in the region

According to before studies and cosulting Laos‟ electric development panning (in 2004), in addition to hydroelectric work Se Kaman3-250MW which is being constructed by investment joint venture company, the Laos‟s Southern area located following hydropower projects expected to be constructed in 2010 to export electricity to Vietnam:

- Se Kaman 1 – 488MW

- Se K«ng 4 – 485MW

- Se K«ng 5 – 405MW

- Nam Kong – 240MW Mentioned projects with total capacity of 1600 MW, if all are collected to Ban Sok area, it is convenient to get 500kV line to Pleiky station with the length of 180km

Expectedly, hydropower plant Se Kaman 1 would be put into operation in 2012, and then, Se Kong 4, Se Kong 5, and Nam Kong

In addition, as the plan, Vietnam would soon coordinate with Laos to do hydropower planning

in Nam U river basin (Northern Laos) with total potential of hydropowr plants is eqivalent to one of Da river basin If it is possible to develop hydropower in Nam U river basin, and export electricity to Vietnam, this would open up remarkable potential of new electric resouces

In West North area of Cambodia There have some hydro-electric projects expected to be deleloped before 2015 to export electricity to Vietnam, they are: Ha Se San 3 – 375 MW, H¹ Srªpok 2 – 222MW and H¹ Sª San 207MW Outside Ha Se san 3 planed to to integrated to Pleiku station by 220kV lines Total estimated capacity imported from Cambodia is about 800MW

As regards to electric inter-grid with China, now, Vietnam is importing electricity from Yunnan and Quang Tay with the scale of 200MW, import time is expected to 2010 to 2007, we would have imported through 220kV electric grid from Yunnan to Vietnam with total capacity 450-

500 MW, after that, the capacity could increase to 600MW Around 2016-2-19, we could import electricity from Yunnan province about 1500MW It is expected to provide electricity to Soc Son station through 500kW wire with length of 400km

4.2.5 Zoning inter-regional electric systems

Zoning inter-regional systems is very important because through belancing supply and demand

in each region, ability and shortcomings in electric capacity exchange through 500kV wire, we would have the best solution to electric resources distribution and reasonable rate of progress

in each region Besides, considering whether it is neccessary to build 500kV connecting circuit

3 or not and when if it is neccessary? Due to the structure of 500kV, distribution of additional charge areas and locations of hydropower plants currently and expectedly, 2 locations chosen

to be slice separating systems are: space between Ha Tinh and Quang Binh (locate between 500kV station of Ha Tinh and one of Da Nang) – regarding 2 circuit DZ 500kV Ha Tinh – Da Nang as North – Central link; the space among Pleiky and the station 500kV Di linh and Dac Nong is DZ 500kV linking Central – Sourth region

- additional charge of the North electric system includes areas of Hanoi, Hai Phong, Hai Duong, and Ninh Binh, belonging to electricity company Hydropower plants located from Ha Tinh province belong to the North electric system

- Additional charge of the Central electric system belong the area of electricity company III and electricity company Khanh Hoa Hydropower plants in Yaly, Vinh Son, Song Hinh, Se San 3, 3A and a series of hydropower plants is expectedly located from Quang Binh to Northern Daknong province belong to electricity system of the Central

- Additional charge of the South‟s electric system belong to the area of electricity company II

Ho Chi Minh city and Dong Nai Hydropower plants in Da Nhim, Tri An, Thac Mo, Ham Thuan – Da Mi, Can Don; and, expected hydropower plants in Dai Ninh, Dong Nai 2,3,4 and 5, Srepok, Srok, Srok Phu Mieng, Dak Tih, Dam Bri, Duc Xuyen all belong to the South

4.3 Measures to develop electric resources

4.3.1 Basis to plan projects

From viewpoint and methodology on electric resources development planning, the project is expected to analyse the comparison between electric resource development projects with basic additional charge demand level Intaking conditions would be basis to have options of calculation and comparision Policy factor or other objective tie (such as gas thermal electric development in the South; the time import from 500kV grid of Southern China…) would decide some conditions in the maximum problem, outside pure techno-economic option Those conditions are considered as following aspects:

1 – inherit and expand studies in last TSD V, researching results of the prefeasible reserching report on nuclear electricity projects and assessment on hydropower development planning in the project of national hydroelectric planning, period 1 (finnished) and national hydropower planning, period 2 having draft:

2- lilmit of fuel (parallel gas and natural gas according to sediment reservoirs, domestic and imported coal):

 From the ability to provide gas from continental shelf in the East and West South shown

in chapter VI, limit providing gas could reach 16 billion m3/year in the period of 2012 – 2020, after that, could inrease to 19 billion m3 Gas market demand for industrial sectors excepting electricity (nitrogenous fertilizer production, metallurgy, plottery and porcelain ) is forecasted to increase about 1 – 1,5 billion m3/year within 10 – 15 next years So gas ceiling limit provided to electric production would be about 15 - 17 billion m3/year

 Domestic coal provided to electric production is expected to increase gradually, could reach about 20 – 25 million tons in 2015 and about 42 – 45 million tons up to 2025

 Coal imported from Australia or Indonesia Thermalelectric plants which use imported coal fuel are expectedly taken priority to develop firstly in the South, after that, when domestic coal is short off, thermalelectric plants in the North would be built

3 - Price and slippage in price of gas, coal, oil fuel for electric production

4 – Abilities to import electricity from hydropower plants (Laos, Cambodia) or from the Southern China electric system

5 – Limit of transmition and mode of reasonable operation of 2 circuit wire 500kV linking 3 regions North – Central – South

6 – Cost and efficiency of PSHP in the role peak capacity diagram and capacity spare;

7 – improvement of hydropower plants‟ technology impact to fuel safety and economistion towards thermal electric plants

8 – Especially, in the period from 2006 – 2010 and after 2010, the option of electric resources development made the list of 12 urgent constructing thermal electric plants with special mechanism of prime minister as announcement no.184/TB-VPCP on December 28th,

2005 and resolution 1195/Q§-TTg on September 11st, 2005 to meet electric demand in the period of 2006 – 2010 and after 2010

9 – Besides, it needs consider the late risk possibility in electric resource rate of progress in period up to 2010 and after 2010 (due to difficulties of investment capital, procedule, removement compensation, executing, imported equipmetn )

4.3.2 Preliminary screen

To reduce quantity of unneccessay composed elictric resources, preliminary assessment economic competition of fuel kinds, projects to impliment screening steps by setting up the average cost calculation table upon thermalelectric plants planned to develop The result of this is shown in Fig 7.1

In table 7.8, coal thermalelectric plants in the North using domestic coal always get lowest averge cost (coeffecient of capacity using from 60 to 80%), the second is coal thermal-electric plants transfered from the North to the Central and the South The third is mixed gas turebine (GT) ( with coefficient of capacity from 60-80%) Nuclear electricity would compete with imported coal when coefficient of capacity is above 75%

Because imported electricity from China is mainly provided to the North, the electricity price

is 3,8 -:- under 4 UScent/kWh would push back the rate of progress of the North‟s coal thermalelectric plants If electricity cost was upper 4UScent/kWh, construction of the North‟s thermalelectric plants need be carefully considered and compared to importing electricity through further comparing other factors such as investment burden reduction, Carbon dioxin emission (apply the method ” avoidable cost”)

4.3.3 compare options

Analyze and compare options carried out on the base a change in input date of case according to objective factors (operation target DZ 500kV inter-region, increase coal pric ) and objective factors (ability to provide gas and gas price, difficulties to import electricity ) The option with lowest cost, ensuring reliance, highest feasibility would be chosen and proposed

Option imitated in maximuum calculation programs, caculation of investment cost, fuel cost, importing electricity cost, cost for loss in exchanging electricity via §Z 500kV North-Central-South

4.4.1 Plan to construct electric resource (2006 – 2010)

In chapter II, section of reviewing TSD V‟s implimentation shows situation of thermalelectric plants‟ construction up to 2007 together with the forecast in electric planning VI, electricity demand following low - primary – hight options is 106,7 – 112,7 – 117,3 billion kWh To meet electricity demand of primary option and taking account of high option, electric resource option proposed is PA3, in which, rate of progress of some coal thermalelectric plants is expected to be push up sooner in the North such as: Hai Phong II 2x300MW in 2010; Son Dong 220MW (2008), Mao Khe I - 220MW (2009), Cam Pha II-300MW (2010) Vung ang I-600MW (2010); The South: mixed GT Ca Mau II – 750MW; mixed GT in O Mon 2x330MW (2008-2009); mixed GT in O Mon IV-750MW ( in the case of late O Mon IV, replaced by Nh¬n Tr¹ch II); some mini and medium hydroelectricity plants are encouraged to develop upto 2010 total install capacity and import reached 25880MW, meeting maximum additional charge demand according to primary option 19117MW with spare rate as install capacity (after repair-mainternance): The North is 23,0% and the South is 22,6%; in dry season (May) rate of spare capacity after repair and mainterance is 29,0% and the South is 21,5%(detail rate of progress, see in the appendex)

4.4.2 Base Case of additional charge (Case 3 – choose of Case )

4.4.2.1 electric resource development Program in the period 2011 – 2015

Electric resource development program in the period 2011 -2015 toward basical additional charge option ( electricity demand is 90 billion kWh in 2015) is defined as follows: in the period from now to 2015, total capacity new electric plants about 30.800MW, of which hyddroelectricity 9.400MW; gas thermalelectricity (mixed gas turebine and condense steam thermal electricity) about 7.700MW; coal thermalelectricity10.500MW; electricity imported from neighboring countries 2.000MW; and energy from new kind of energy (mini hydroelectricity, wind electricity )1.200MW

As regards to this resource development, up to 2015 total capacity of Vietnam‟s electric

plants is 42.470MW, in which hydropower is 13.600 (32,0%), oil-gas thermalelectricity is 13.400 (31,5%), coal thermalelectricity is 12.100 (28,6%), imported electricity is 2100MW (5,0%) and electric from new resources of energy is 1.270MW (3,0%); ensure meeting additional charge demand of 31495MW with a spare ratio after repairing-mainternance is 26,2% in the rainy season and about 20,9% in the end of dry season

Production electricit‟s capacity in 2015 is190 TWh, in which, hydropower is 53,1 TWh

(27,9%), oil – gas thermalelectricity is 66 TWh (34,8%), coal thermal electricity is 60,4 TWh (31,8%), electricity from mini hydropower plants and new energy is 3,0 TWh (1,6%),

imported electricity is 7,6 TWh (4,0%) Detail list of electric resource in the period 2006 –

2015 is put in the appandex

4.4.2.2 electric resource development Program in the period 2020 – 2025

Till 2020 total capatity of electric plants is 60.700MW, of which, hydropower and pump

storage hydropower‟s capacity is 17.200MW (28,3%), oil-gas thermalelectricity: 16.300 MW (26,8%), coal thermalelectricity:18.300 MW (30,2%), nuclear electricity: 2.000MW (3,3%), electriciy from mini hydropower plants and new energy:1800MW (2,8%) and imported electricity: 5.200MW (8,6%)

Electricity‟s capacity for production in 2020 is 294 TWh, of which, hydropower: 63,6 TWh (21,6%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 90,6 TWh (30,8%), coal thermalelectricity:101,2 TWh (34,4%), imported electricity: 25,5 TWh (8,7%), nuclear electricity: 8,0 TWh (2,7%) ; and electricity from new resource of energy: 5,1 TWh (1,7%)

Till 2025, total capacity of electricity plants is 85.500MW, of which, hydropower and pump

storage hydropower ocupy 21.300MW (24,9%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 17.000MW (19,9%), coal thermalelectricity:35.800MW (41,8%), imported electricity: 5.200MW (6,1%),

nuclear electricity: 4000MW (4,7%), electricity from new energy resource: 2300MW (2,7%); meet additional charge demands of 68.440MW with spare ratio after repairing and mainternance is 14,4% in the rainy season and about 12,1% in the end of dry season

Production electricity‟s capacity in 2025 is 431,7 TWh, of which hydropower (subtracted electricity for PSHP): 62,8 TWh (14,6%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 113,8 TWh (26,4%), coal thermalelectricity: 198,3 TWh (45,9%), imported electricity: 25,5 TWh (5,9%), nuclear electricity:24,6 TWh (5,7%) and electricity from new energy: 6,6 TWh (1,5%)

Since 2020, it would be constructed some coal thermalelectric plants in the Central with the scale from 600MW to 2400MW in areas of province Thua Thiªn-Hue, Quang Nam, Khanh Hoa,

4.4.2.3 Electric resource projects IPP (BOO, BOT, BT, )

Conformity with target of electricity sector development approved by Prime Minister, aiming

to diversify kinds of electric investment, management , businessment, strengthening competition to enhane economic efficiency, reduce investment capital burden for EVN, in the program of electric development, there would have many electric resource projects called for investment according to IPP form Total electric resource‟s capacity is invested and called for investment in IPP form in the period 2006 – 2015 is about above 10.000MW, not take account of about 500MW mini hydropower projects invested by other investers outside EVN

In addition to projects such as: coal thermalelectric plants: Cam Pha, Son §ong, Mao Khe, Mong Duong II, Vung ang I, TBKHH Ca Mau I, II, Nhon Trach I, hydropower plant: Se San 3A, Nam Chien, with total capacity to above 5.700MW Some projects expected to be invested according to IPP form are: coal thermalelectric plants Nghi Son II – 2x600MW; Vung ang II (2x600MW); the Southern thermalelectric plants: Two of areas field worked are Tra Cu, Tra Vinh and Vinh Tan-Binh Thuan have ability to build plants with capacity from 2x600 to 4x600MW in each area; gas thermalelectric plant O Mon II – 750MW, Nhon Trach II-750MW and some following works:

a) Projects invested by Vietnam‟s coal and mineral cooperation:

- Coal thermal electric plants produced for test electric plant equipment in the country – 100MW

50-: Coal thermalelectric plant Cam Pha III – 2x135MW used poor quality of coal

- Coal thermalelectric plant Mao Khe II – 220MW, could increased two electric machine

- Coal thermalelectric plant Dien Cong – 2x300MW

- Expanded projects of coal thermalelectric plants Cao Ngan, Na Duong, Son Dong

- Coal thermalelectric projects in Quang Nam, Binh Thuan

b) Electric projects proposed to invest by othe companies:

- Coal thermalelectric plant Thang Long 300MW (Use poor quality of coal ) – joint stock cement companyThang Long

- coal thermalelectric plant Thuy Nguyen, Hai Phong: 2 x 300MW – invested by joint stock comercial construction company

c) Thermalelectric resource rojects proposed by some People‟s commission of some provincesÞ:

- Regional coal thermalelectric plant Chan May – Lang Co (Thua Thien Hue province), predicted to 2400MW

- Regional coal thermalelectric plants in provinces: Phu Tho, Ninh Binh, Quang Ninh, Binh

The project refered electric resource development options, taking account of those projects‟ participation in electric system However, together with electric resource works ratified to be invested and implimenting, projects which is being invested belong to urgen mechanism of goverment in resolution1195TTg, these electric plant projects would meet difficultes to be embalanced in period 2011 - 2015 Therefore, the projects mentioned in sections a), b) vµ c) would be considered to embalance in the development project with high additional charge or continue to be researched to put into operation in period after 2015

4.4.2.4 Fuel demand for electric production

From result of the calculation program, according to electric resource development plans in mentioned above option 3, we have the need to balance gas, coal and oil fuel

Total coal demand for electricity production is 11,9 million tons in 2010, increas to 24 million tons in 2015, 39,1 million tons in 2020 & 76,4 million tons in 2025 amount of imported coal in

2015 is about 4 million tons; 11,5 million tons in 2020; about 36,7 million tons in 2025

The balance in table 7.7 shows that total gas demand for electricity increase 7,7 billion m3 in

2010, to 13 billion m3 in 2015, to 15,6 billion m3 in 2020 and reached 17 billion m3 in 2025

In the balance table of electricity, firs generators of nuclear electric plants came into

operation with coefficient of capacity more than 70%, it‟s estimated fuel for each

generator1000MW/ unit about 26 -27 tons Uranium fuel each year

4.4.3 Conclusion on development planning of electric resource

1 in years from 2006 to 2008, due to the late in progress rate of some electric resources,

at additional charge projects, the risk of electricity shortage is very high, especially in the Northl A series of measures is implimented to reduce maximumly the risk such as: control strictly progress rate of the works under construction; move the current schedule of repair and maintenance existing electric resources to maintain usable capacity of thermalelectric plants Phu My, Ba Ria; promote early importing electricity from 220-110kV grid of China; mobilise everyone to save electricity using and strengthen measures DSM , however, electric plants slill operate at hard regulations continously in years, easy to breakdown Reliability to provide electricity of the North‟s electric systems is low Regarding low additional charge project, the risk of electricity shortage would reduce remarkable

2 To limit the continous late to build electric resources, it must control monthly progress rate of the works under construction to put into operation in 2006 - 2008 such as: Hydropower plant Tuyen Quang, thermalelectric plant Hai Phong I, thermalelectric plant Son

§ong in the North; hydroelectric plants Se San 3, Se San 3A, Preikrong, Quang Tri, Buon Kuop, in the Central; hydroelectric plant §ai Ninh, Dong Nai 3 - 4, in the South Soon starting construction gas thermalelectric plants Nhon Trach I, O Mon III,

3 From now to 2010, there are from 350 – 400MW mini and medium hdro electric resources as expected to be put into operation, mostly IPP investment form.But, progress rate of the works during last years is slow It must have a mechanism to control progression rate these resources, includes removing projects of model ”book a seat” but not have development capital

4 In the list of electric resources in period 2006-2010 in the appendex, the most

importance is that: Resources intaking could be earlier, but by every measure to keep, it must not later than the time planed

5 Period 2011-2015, the list proposed in the appendex includes some notes: Impossibility

to be later than progression rate scheduled Because the maximum calculation program considered barely enough reliance to provide electricity and enough for spare If being later than the time scheduled, it could cause the risk of unreliability in providing electricity and possibly cause electricity shortage

6 In planning locations of coal thermal electric plants in the South, there are 2 locations examined by electric construction and consulting company 2 are Tra Cu (Tra Vinh province) and Long Phu (Soc Trang) These 2 places are evaluated to be convenient for development coal thermal electric plants when the channel Quan Chanh Bo (the work belong to Vietnam‟s sea harbor planning approved by the government) finnish dredging so that it could intake ships with tonnage of 20.000 tons in 2010 – 2011 An other location also examined by electric construction and consulting company 2 and foreign company (belong to CSG corporation, China), Vinh Tan, coastal area of Binh Thuan is also possible to construct coal thermal electric plant with the scale of 3000MW Except Phuoc An (30km far from Nhon Trach) belong to Dong Nai province is assessed to be rather convenient about premises, water providing, coal habor with ship scale of 20 000 tons It needs to consider the coordination with Dong Nai to build plants of about 1000-1200MW coal thermal electricity in this place if having enough opportunity

7 import electricity from China could be chosen one in 2 options: Option 1: Install shift

unit AC-DC-AC Back to Back in import site 220kV Lao Cai andHa Giang in 2009, enhancing

import capacity to 300MW at each site 220kV grid Vietnam would reconcile Then up to

2017 importing via 500kV grid, gradually increase to 1500MW; b) Option 2: Maintain 220kV grid in area where receiving imported electricity The part from electric grid system of place would shrink litle by little according to the rise of additional charge of the imported area; Till 2015-2016 Vietnam would stop importing electricity through level 220kV and move to connect 500kV via DC electric line or install Converter Back to Back level 500kV

8 According to recently proposal of gas porovider BP on development plan of Moc Tinh and Hai trach mines (Plot 05.2 and 05.3), total reserves of the 2 gas mines about 32 billion m3 as estimated, late 2010 it is possible to exploit gas and provide to thermal electric center Nhon Trach with amount of 1,6 – 1,7 billion m3/year in time of 18-20 years Now BP is seeking a MOU for ministry of industry an 3 sides PV, EVN and BP agree about development plan the

mines and thermal electric plants Nhon II and III (2x750MW)

It is neccessary to promote progresses of reviewing reserves, agreement in the plan of providing gas, pipe line construction; decision of reasonable cost to develop further 2 x 750MW thermal electricity in Nhon Trach The case generator of mixed gas turebine O Mon

IV is not in time to use in 2010, it could be replaced by generator of Nhon Trach II (750MW);

similarly, tæ m¸y Nhon trach III – 750MW could be used in 2011 - 2012

9 In low additional charge option

Reduction of demand Pmax in comparision with basic additional charge is 1016MW and

3448, MW in the years of 2010 and 2015 So, Capacity is neccessary to be reduced 2300MW and 6100MW according to milestones 2010 and 2015 as follows:

- Cµ Mau II could be delayed to - 2009

- Hai Phong II “ - 2011-2012

- O Mon IV (hoÆc Nh¬n Tr¹ch III) “ - 2013

- Quang Ninh II could be delayed to – 2013-2014;

- Nhon Trach III „ - 2014

The North up to 2020 – 2025 would just construct coal thermal electric plants using domestic coal Nuclear electricity would be developed to 2000MW in period 2020 – 2025

10 To diversify investment, basing on working mode of the additional chargediagram bed

of some coal thermal plants in the North (kind of 300-600MW) and mixed cycle gas thermal electricity (kind of 720 -750MW) in the South, it needs encourage investors excepting for EVN to participate in electric production‟s development and operation from this kind of thermal electric plants under IPP form

11 Pump storage hydropower would enter the first generator in 2019 in the North (size 300MW), then increase to 1500MW in 2025 The South would have generators PSHP in

2020 and increase to 3300MW in 2025 In addition to locations of Phu Yen (Son La) and Bac

Ai (Ninh Thuan), new locations should be found

12 For places of coal and gas thermal electric plants after 2020 :

a The North need to build further some 6400MW coal thermal electric plants Potential places are in the North of Hai Phong, areas of Uong Bi-Quang Ninh, Thai Binh, Ninh Binh and possibly Hung Yen (use brown coal in Hong river delta) Places are not clear,

so it needs research to find further coastal locations of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Thai Binh which have ability to build harbor importing coal to construct a new thermal electric centre

b The Central up to the period of 2020 - 2025 would need construct some 2400MW -:- 3600MW of coal thermal electricity It needs continue studies on feasibility of the locations examined at the beginning in the range of provinces: Quang Binh, Thua Thien – Hue, Quang Nam, Quang ngai, Phu Yen and Khanh Hoa If gas container is discovered in the area from Quang Nam to Quang Ngai, it would be built here some 600 – 700MW mixed gas turebine

c In addition to mentioned coal thermal electric centers in Tra Vinh, Soc Trang, after 2020 the South also need construct some 5000 -:- 6000MW coal thermal electricity which use imported coal It is necessary to further seek locations inshore of Ninh thuan, Binh Thuan…for new coal thermal electric centers In other hand, in the future, ability providing gas from plot B, 52/97, belong to gas container Malai-Tho Chu is possible to reach 5,2 billion m3/year Excepting amount of gas provided to O Mon thermal electric center, we could seek locations in Kien Giang or Cai Lay to construct further some 2000MW gas thermal electricity in these places

Depending on mentioned base, it needs to identify the list and progression rate of electric resources according to basic and high additional charge project in period 2006 – 2025

13 Total electric capacity of river basin and areas put into operation in period of 2011-2020 and take account of 2025 :

To meet energy demand for social-economic development of the country; base on potential

of energy forms in regions, basical contents of national energy policy and strategy of electric sector development in period 2010-2020 and the resolution approved by The Government on Vietnam electric development planning in period 2011-1020, considering to 2025, we can see that Vietnam‟s potential of hydroelectric development put into operation in this phase is very huge, about 33,310 MW Total hydroelectric capacity in river basins and regions put into operation in this phase and the ratio of it compared to total hydropower capacity of the whole country as follows:

( i ) Hong & Thai Binh river basins : 11,286 MW /take up 34 % of the whole country ( ii ) Dong Nai river basin: 1,194 - / - 08 -

( iii) Coastal region of The Eastern South( SERC ): 3, 900 - / - 12 -

( almost are PSHP serve for the peak of additional charge electric system)

( iv ) Sesan basin : 1,731 - / - 05 -

( v ) Vu Gia-Thu Bon basins : 1,194 - / - 04 -

( vi ) Mini hydropower ( of the whole country ): 4,102 - / - 12 -

( vii ) import ( from hydropower plants of Laos and Yunnan (China ) and Cambodia: 5,724 - / - 17 -

Detail data is shown in table 06.A1 and table 06.A2

Picture 7.3 Electric resource capacity and Pmax in period 2006-2025 – basic option

Picture 7.4 Structure of electric resource capacity period 2006-2025 – basic option

NhiÖt ®iÖn than Thuû ®iÖn vµ T§ tÝch n¨ng Pmax

Diagrams of dditional charge 8760h ranked according to the gradually reducing order of additional charge rate, illustrated working mode of electric plants in the 3 regions in period

The speed of increasing power source in the period 2001-2005 at average of 14.3%/year, lower than the increasing of electricity for producing (~14.8%) The rate of IPP and BOT power stations increase quickly, from about 506MW (gain 6-7%) in 2001, increased 2439MW (21.3%)in 2005

In order to meet the speed of sustainable development of the economy, projects about the speed of increasing electric demand in the period of 2006-2025 as follow:

Low additional charge project is predicted according to the growth of GDP of foundation drama: 7.5%/year (2006 – 2010); 7.2%/year (2011-2020) and 7%/year (2021-2-25) The average growth of electricity for producing 14.8%/year in the period of 2006-2010, increasing 9.7%/year in the period of 2011-2015, the average increasing in 2016-2020 is 7.9% and 2021-2025 increase 7.2%

Basic additional charge project is predicted according to the high growth of GDP best project 8.5%/year (2006-2020), 8%/year (2010-2025) The average growth of electricity for producing

is 16.1%/year in the period of 2006-2010, decreasing 11%/year in 201-2015, in 2016-2020 the average increasing would be about 9.1%/year and 2021-2025 increase 8%/year

High additional charge project is also predicted according to the high growth of GDP 8.5% and 8% as above, the increasing rate in 2006-2010 is 17%/year, later, the increasing rate will decrease to 13%/year in 2011-2015, in 2016-2020 will increase 9,1%/year and 2021-2025 will increase 8%/year See 7.4 picture., 7.12 A table and 7.12b table From this requirement, the speed of electric development (include hydroelectric power) need to acheive 8-11%/year in the peridod of 2011-2025 In all areas, it must take many power sources into effects

About hydroeclectric power, see 06-A1 and 06-A2 table

Electric development in rural area program 2006-2010-2015:

Together with the development of middle and large size power sources and the electric line system The government and electric corporation have to invest in small hydroelectric power and other kinds of new energy to solve the electric demand in rural area, especially

in the less development area where can‟t supply the electricity through national electric net system and areas with the main solutions as follow:

Solutions to supply for areas that are far away from national electric net, develop kinds of new energy for less developing areas

Encourage the development of technology outside net Improve the using of reproduced energy Encourage the supply of electricity from independent power sources

Predicted results:

In 2006-2010”