1. Trang chủ
  2. » Khoa Học Tự Nhiên

IFR 06 13 2020 PDF room (1)

112 14 0

Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)

Tài liệu hạn chế xem trước, để xem đầy đủ mời bạn chọn Tải xuống

THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU

Thông tin cơ bản

Tiêu đề Too Much, Too Soon For Frenzied Credit Market: Reality Bites At End Of Rollercoaster Week
Trường học Refinitiv
Chuyên ngành Finance
Thể loại Article
Năm xuất bản 2020
Thành phố London
Định dạng
Số trang 112
Dung lượng 6,39 MB

Các công cụ chuyển đổi và chỉnh sửa cho tài liệu này

Nội dung

International Financing Review June 13 20204 Top news Bottomless demand for sovereign issues „ Bonds Investors clamour for sovereign paper in banner week for syndications BY HELENE DURAN

Trang 1

JUNE 13 2020 ISSUE 2337 www.ifre.com

06

LOANS

EQT’s €2.3bn fund lNANCINGûRAISESû the bar for private equity and ESG

07

LOANS

3ANTANDERûROCKETSû UPûRANKINGSûASû CRISISûSHAKESûUPû European lending

10

Too much, too soon for frenzied credit market: reality bites at end of rollercoaster week

In demand: six European sovereigns raise

€40bn from €303bn of orders in just two days Lift-off for €10bn buyout financing for

ThyssenKrupp’s elevators division

Trang 2

IFR’s

ESG Financing Briefing

IFR’s ESG Financing Briefing is a subscription

service offering daily news, data and analysis

on green and ESG financing from across the Refinitiv Capital Markets Insight Team.

To subscribe or learn more, e-mail

ifr.clientsupport@refinitiv.com

Trang 3

International Financing Review June 13 2020 1

The coming storm

F inancial markets got a dose of reality last week They

needed it At the begining of the week, equity and credit

markets were chugging along as if the March and April

sell-offs were an aberration Data showing the US unemployment

rate was “only” 13.3% in May was deemed good news It

wasn’t It was terrible and a stark illustration of the economic

devastation being wrought by Covid-19.

Yet the S&P 500 had turned positive for the year, the

Nasdaq hit a record high and credit market indices were

moving closer towards levels that prevailed in January and

February rather than the peak of the sell-off in March.

That changed on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair

Jerome Powell’s sober assessment of the US economy and

THENûCONlRMATIONûOFûANûUPTURNûINûREPORTEDûCORONAVIRUSû

cases in parts of the US Both were blunt reminders of what is

actually happening to those who had got heady on the easing

of lockdowns and the prospect of a quick recovery.

As a result, on Thursday, US and European equity markets

saw their biggest one-day falls since March – and credit

markets suffered in sympathy.

Whether this becomes another prolonged sell-off or a few

unsettling days before markets go on their merry way again

remains to be seen.

But the shock was coming In the bond market, issuers were

getting greedy and investors were back in “hunt for yield” mode.

“Madness”, “nuts”, “ridiculous” were just some of the

words bankers used to describe the action.

Corporate hybrids? Yes please Bank AT1s? Not a problem

Asian real estate? Here’s a US$20m order.

4HEûDISCONNECTûBETWEENûECONOMICûREALITYûANDûlNANCIALû

markets has never been greater.

We all know why, of course So far this year, announced

GLOBALûlSCALûANDûMONETARYûSTIMULUSûAMOUNTSûTOû53TRN û

according to Bank of America.

!NDûTHATûlREPOWERûHASNTûALLûBEENûUSEDûUPû"UTûWHILEûTHEû

support of governments and central banks is necessary and

right following the coronavirus outbreak, one day there will

have to be a reckoning.

One day, companies that are maintaining a zombie-like

existence will be unable to borrow any more money to cover

their ever-bigger debt piles.

One day, the economic realities of what’s happening will

make themselves felt.

Secondary education

I f the latest Hong Kong listings are any guide, Chinese companies have little to fear from US threats to kick them off American exchanges.

The rapturous response to the secondary listings of Netease and JD.com underlines the depth of the local following for big Chinese technology stocks JD.com’s 53BNûSHAREûSALEûISûTHEûCITYSûMOSTûPOPULARûPUBLICû OFFERINGûOFûTHEûYEAR ûWITHûTHEûRETAILûPORTIONûCLOSEûTOûû pop, and traded on Friday at a small premium to its US price.

These listings challenge the assumption that Chinese companies would somehow struggle to fund their expansion without access to the US equity market.

-OREûSIGNIlCANTLY ûTHEYûALSOûLESSENûTHEûTHREATûOFûAûFORCEDû delisting if Chinese companies fail to make their audit trail available to US regulators Once a secondary listing is in PLACE ûITûWOULDûNOTûBEûDIFlCULTûFORûAû#HINESEûCOMPANYûTOû make Hong Kong its primary trading venue, bringing international shareholders along with them.

In fact, that switch may be already under way.

Alibaba, which started the ball rolling with its US$13bn Hong Kong listing last November, has seen a much bigger shift in its shareholder base than expected, with about 46% of all trading over the past month now taking place in the city.

On Thursday, 33 million Alibaba shares changed hands in Hong Kong, versus 29.7 million (via 3.71 million ADRs) the same day in New York, giving Hong Kong a 53% share At 55%, the Hong Kong stock will be deemed to have become

Alibaba’s primary listing, in a test the exchange applies over THEûWHOLEûlNANCIALûYEAR

A Hong Kong primary listing would not exempt Alibaba from any US disclosure rules, but it would make it eligible for the Stock Connect trading link with mainland China, opening up a new investor base It would also simplify the cancellation of its New York listing, if such a move were to be enforced.

If trading in JD.com and Netease follows a similar path, any US attempts to use the capital markets as a trade or political bargaining chip will carry little weight The sooner politicians come to that conclusion, the better

Trang 4

International Financing Review June 13 2020

2

Top news

Too much, too soon for frenzied

credit market?

„ Bonds Investors gravitate towards riskier structures but mini sell-off brings renewed doubts

BY SUDIP ROY

Questions about the intensity of

the credit binge were being

raised towards the end of last

week after US and European

equity markets suffered their

biggest one-day falls since March

on Thursday, bringing doubts

about whether the pace would

be sustained

A sober assessment of the US

economic outlook by Federal

Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on

Wednesday, and a jump in

reported coronavirus cases in

some US states in the south and

west on Thursday, led to

renewed selling

Whether this becomes a

prolonged sell-off or just a minor

correction of a market that had

risen too fast, too soon remains

to be seen, but both Powell’s

comments and the coronavirus

data delivered a reality check to

investors who had begun to get

excited about the prospect of a

quick economic recovery

“I think we needed it as the

market was too frothy and

issuers were getting greedy,”

said a senior banker on Friday

Bankers may now have to

reassess their pipelines and the

speed at which they planned to

bring deals into the market “We

had a few issuers early in the

week that said ‘no’ as we were a

few basis points wider Now I

guess they are 25bp wider So

that could mean they say ‘no

way, I need to get the 25bp back’

or they could say ‘OK, I messed

up and this could retrace more’

It’s too early to tell,” said the

banker

The good news for bond

markets is that the technical

support is still huge “Investors –

and the ECB – are still buying

We will just need to see higher

new-issue premiums Net-net, I

think we slow a bit, but don’t stop,” said the banker

Even on Thursday as the S&P

500 fell nearly 6%, some bond issuers still managed to print deals While a public holiday in parts of Europe meant the euro market took a breather, three US high-yield issuers priced deals and THAIOIL sold a US$1bn dual-tranche offering – inside fair value too – with some of the paper going to US accounts

The second half of the week WASûINûSTARKûCONTRASTûTOûTHEûlRSTûhalf as primary markets on both sides of the Atlantic were busy – despite the odd no-go call

While sovereigns led the way, WITHûlVEûEUROZONEûGOVERNMENTSûraising funds and three other European nations pricing publicly syndicated bonds, the credit markets across the world were also active as investors gravitated towards lower-rated issuers and riskier structures

“The huge bid for bank capital, corporate hybrids, Asian high-yield and so on is

incredible,” said another senior banker earlier in the week

The market backdrop was so good ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting that some thought it was even better than

at the start of the year even if

credit spreads haven’t recovered

to the tights of that period

h4HEûMARKETûISûONûlREûANDûprobably better than January and February when it was thought we were in a utopian phase,” said a syndicate banker before Powell’s comments

REALITY CHECK?

At €269bn, publicly syndicated issuance by European sovereigns

in the euro and sterling markets

is already almost double the amount raised in the whole of

2019 No other year in recent times has seen €200bn of issuance

As for euro issuance overall, the total for the year has already

SURPASSEDûõBNû4HEûlRSTûthree days of last week saw about €60bn of issuance – from SSA through to high-yield – with the week shortened by the Corpus Christi holiday on Thursday

It is an even more incredible story in the US where investment-grade issuance volume of US$1.1trn is just US$27bn shy of the amount raised in the whole of 2019 The full-year record of US$1.33trn set

in 2017 looks set to be smashed

But while supply has boomed ever since central banks began pumping unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the lNANCIALûSYSTEMûINûRESPONSEûTOûthe coronavirus outbreak, the rally was causing a sense of disquiet in some quarters

“I personally don’t buy this STRENGTHû3HORTûTERMûlNEûTHEREû

is a huge amount of cash trying TOûlNDûAûHOMEûANDûCERTAINûSECTORS ûSUCHûASûTECH ûWILLûBENElTûand rightly should be strong But give it three to six months and I think it has to unravel as the reality and costs of Covid are seen,” said one fund manager

Others agreed that there will

be an eventual fallout “Maybe lNANCIALûMARKETSûHAVEûNOWûJUSTûBEENûCOMMODITISEDûBYûlSCALûANDûmonetary stimulus, the latter mostly It’s simply now too much money chasing too few lNANCIALûASSETS ûWHETHERûTHATûISûbonds or stocks,” wrote Tim Ash,

EM sovereign strategist at BlueBay

“And the instruments themselves now have no relationship to the underlying assets or investments, whether that is companies or sovereigns

There has to be a price for all this, surely Maybe later on in INmATION ûORûPERHAPSûBADûPOLICYûchoices.”

1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5

2/6/20 2/5/20

2/4/20 2/3/20

2/2/20 2/1/20

of Covid are seen”

Trang 5

International Financing Review June 13 2020 3

For daily news stories visit www.ifre.com

@

In the meantime, though, the

fear of missing out pushed

investors into corners of the

market they would not have

looked at just a few weeks ago

“It looks like the yield hunt

has reached its illogically logical

height,” said Olga Budnovits, a

portfolio manager at Main

Partners

TAKING ADVANTAGE

Borrowers can hardly be

blamed for taking advantage

In emerging markets, for

example, supply from Africa

tentatively started again even

though several governments

from the region are seeking

countries, priced a US$750m

5.5-year non-call two issue at a

yield of 7.125% That compared

with initial talk of the 7.75%

area

Initially the company was

targeting a US$425m deal to

fund a tender offer on its

US$600mn 9.125% senior notes

due 2022

But such was the level of

interest following a day of

marketing, the tender was

cancelled and the deal was

UPSIZEDûWITHûTHEûPROCEEDSûNOWû

to be used to fully take out the

2022s at their call date next

month

Another regional issuer,

AFRICA FINANCE CORP (A3,

negative outlook) was also in

the market on the same

day The pan-African

multilateral institution,

based in Nigeria, sold a

yield of 3.25%, signifying a

minimal premium at most

“The screen was full on

Tuesday and order books

everywhere were stellar Fish

aren’t biting – they’re

swallowing the whole bloody

arm you hold out,” said the

syndicate banker

Another example of the

growing interest in esoteric

credits was evident in the euro corporate market as three unrated issuers – Portuguese utility GALP ENERGIA, French small appliance manufacturer

SEB, and ILIAD, a telecommunications operator across France and Italy – raised funds Galp and SEB had not issued since 2017

“It was not that long ago that you would have advised against unrated borrowers issuing, but the market is in good shape,” said another syndicate banker as these deals priced

MOMENTUM PLAY

DEUTSCHE BORSE and VW, meanwhile, maintained the momentum in the recently reopened corporate hybrid market

h)TûISûAMAZINGûHOWûSOMEûOFûthose credits that a few months ago you would have been wary

of have really rallied,” said a banker at one of the leads as VW priced its €3bn dual-tranche offering

“Hybrids are of great interest

to us at the moment I am getting something like a Double B yield on a bond from what is usually a very high quality issuer,” said an investor

h'IVENûTHEûYIELDû)ûCANûlNDûINûsenior, even if I go to the more riskier issuers which I don’t really want to do, there is a clear BENElTûTOûHYBRIDSûANDûWEûHAVEûactually increased their share in our portfolio.”

IN ON THE ACT

High-yield issuers were also getting in on the act Following only a trickle of deals in European primary over the past three months, supply began to pick up

Leading the way was VIRGIN MEDIA as it dipped into the euro, sterling and US dollar markets

to clean up its debt stack prior

to its merger with O2

“Finally the European issuers are coming out of hiding,” said a high-yield analyst

Average junk bond yields have recovered to 4.3%, down from a peak of 8.9% in March, ACCORDINGûTOû2ElNITIVûDATAûSome analysts are cautiously optimistic about the outlook, thanks to supportive technicals

“In high-yield, there’s been

no supply, because issuers haven’t needed to come But because of government support they’ve got liquidity anyway and

that’s reducing defaults,” said

!ZHARû(USSAIN ûHEADûOFûGLOBALûcredit at Royal London Asset Management

“That creates an environment

on the technical side that is very supportive Defaults aren’t going to be anything like what people thought they were going

to be two months or even a month ago.”

CAUTIONARY TALE

But while sectors such as high-yield and emerging markets play catch up, other areas were providing a cautionary tale

On Monday, Additional Tier 1 transactions from COMMERZBANK

and ABN AMRO demonstrated the strength of the primary market, with combined demand for the two trades peaking above

€19.5bn

But by mid-morning on Tuesday both deals were bid below par, at 99 and 98.60, respectively, setting a new tone, bankers said By Friday morning they had fallen to 97 and 97.62 respectively, according to 2ElNITIVûPRICES

Still, demand for less straightforward deals did not disappear as on Wednesday BPER BANCA BECAMEûTHEûlRSTû)TALIANûlender outside the country’s top tier to enter the market since the coronavirus outbreak

And NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY

took the AT1 revival to the sterling market, printing a

£750m deal on more than

£4.4bn of demand It was the since November

h)TSûAMAZINGûHOWûFARûWEVEûcome and we really are getting very close [to pre-crisis spreads],” said a DCM banker “The worry is whether

we have, in the last three or four days, moved too far too fast?”

“The market needs to consolidate because you can’t go 10bp tighter every day.”

Additional reporting by Eleanor Duncan, Tom Revell, Ed Clark, Robert Hogg „

2,800 2,850 2,900 2,950 3,000 3,050 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300

RUNNING OUT OF STEAM

Trang 6

International Financing Review June 13 2020

4

Top news

Bottomless demand for sovereign issues

„ Bonds Investors clamour for sovereign paper in banner week for syndications

BY HELENE DURAND

Six sovereign issuers descended

on the European primary market

last week, raising

€40bn-equivalent over two days in an

extraordinary manifestation of

demand that saw books peak over

€303.5bn-equivalent, despite the

relentless pace that has

characterised the sector in 2020

IRELAND, SPAIN and GREECE, three

issuers that almost a decade ago

were caught up in one of the

worst sovereign crises to hit the

region, were greeted by a deluge

of investor demand

They emerged on the same

day as the UK brought a £9bn

October 2050 and ahead of

another €9bn that was priced

the following day by GERMANY

and FINLAND

“There are six hundred billion

reasons why, as an investor, you

should buy bonds,” said a DCM

banker referring to the ECB

Pandemic Emergency Purchase

Programme that was increased

by €600bn at its last meeting

He added: “You have to

remember, some of the big issuers

like ESM or KfW have been

missing from the market, while

we have an unprecedented level

of central bank support which GIVESûTHEûMARKETûCONlDENCEvSyndications have become a mainstay for sovereign issuers trying to chip away at their increased funding needs resulting from the coronavirus pandemic

Over €269bn-equivalent has been raised using the method in euros and sterling this year, versus over €139bn-equivalent for the whole of 2019, according

to IFR data, and bankers expect the tempo to remain rapid while conditions are strong

“All these sovereigns are accelerating their plans because

they need more [funding] and they all want to come before the summer,” another DCM banker said

Spain and Ireland, for example, had recently outlined UPSIZEDûFUNDINGûNEEDS

“The ECB has buoyed markets and the tone is phenomenal, so clearly the decision to come now

is the right one,” he said, adding that other sovereigns that had wanted to bring their deals last Tuesday, opted to step back when it became clear how much supply was expected

“You could have had a bit of a TRAFlCûJAM ûBUTûROSEûmore than tenfold to trade at US$5.53 on June 8

“The recent market prices of and the trading volumes in Hertz’s common stock potentially present a unique opportunity for the debtors to raise capital on terms that are far superior to any debtor-in-possession lNANCING vû(ERTZûSAID

!NDûUNLIKEûTYPICALûBANKRUPTCYûlNANCING ûselling stock would not impose new covenants, it said

Philip Scipio

Trang 27

International Financing Review June 13 2020 25

People

& Markets

European banks say Q2 activity robust

European banking executives expressed

cautious optimism last week about

second-quarter trading – although they held back

from some of the bullish predictions made

by US peers in recent weeks

CREDIT SUISSE‘s new chief executive Thomas

'OTTSTEIN ûINûOFlCEûSINCEû&EBRUARY ûSAIDûACTIVITYû

so far had been “robust” in May and June

“Those early indications that we have seen

now in the last couple of weeks have been

actually quite promising and going in the

RIGHTûDIRECTION vûHEûSAIDûATûAûlNANCIALSû

conference organised by Goldman Sachs

“We clearly had a lot of stress in the system

in the second half of March, but things really

calmed down in April and they continue to be

quite robust in May and June.”

Gottstein warned that economic data for

the second quarter would be “very bad” for

Europe and the US But he said investment

banking colleagues were having a high level

of engagement with clients

Many corporate clients have made the

MOSTûOFûTHEûLOWERûRATESûAVAILABLEûTOûRElNANCEû

THEMSELVES ûSAIDûCHIEFûlNANCIALûOFlCERû$AVIDû

Mathers He said there had been a “very high

degree” of appetite

In a separate piece of research Credit Suisse

said it expected a solid rebound in European

economic activity during the third quarter, which could fuel an acceleration later in the YEARûINû-!ûhASûCORPORATESûANDûlNANCIALûsponsors vie to get ahead of the pack”

It said more corporate carve-outs could occur as clients “strive for optimum business models and structures in lower growth environment”

US bank chiefs have indicated trading revenues in the second quarter will continue Morgan last month said its Q2 markets revenues were on track to be up 50% from the same period last year

He said the CRE portfolio was “pretty ROBUSTvûSINCEûITûWASûWELLûDIVERSIlEDûANDûHADûreasonably low loan-to-value ratios of around 60% Similarly the aviation loans were AGAINSTûMODERNûmEETS

investment-grade oil and gas credits such as

US shale developers and its retail names

were mainly involved in groceries, he said at the Goldman conference

“We have done a bottom-up look across all those high and medium-risk sectors We HAVEûIDENTIlEDûTHEûSINGLEûASSETSûTHATûNEED ûsay, more attention Clearly some have moved to work out,” he said “[We] will be helping our clients as well as we can through THEIRûCASHmOWûDIFlCULTIESv

Credit Suisse’s Mathers said the outlook for its corporate loans had improved since THEûENDûOFûTHEûlRSTûQUARTER ûPARTICULARLYûFORûoil and gas names The bank had SFr2.9bn (US$3.06bn) of exposure to non investment grade oil and gas at the end of March

“There’s been a very substantial narrowing

of spreads over the course of the last two months, which I think one would expect to BEûBENElCIALûTOûTHEûRESERVEûBUILDûTHATûWEûTALKEDûABOUTûATûTHEûENDûOFûTHEûlRSTûQUARTER vû

he said, citing central bank support for investment grade credit

sub-“We’ve obviously seen a very sharp rise in oil and gas prices from the very distressed PERIODûATûTHEûENDûOFûTHEûlRSTûQUARTERû3Oû)ûthink in many ways, those types of risk exposures have probably improved since the ENDûOFûTHEûlRSTûQUARTERv

Christopher Spink

Travelodge uses new law for relief

TRAVELODGE last month fought off an

application by some of its landlords to

wind-up the UK hotel chain, after it failed to

pay its second-quarter rents The company

cited a planned new UK law aimed at

protecting tenants from eviction during the

coronavirus crisis – even though it is not yet

in force

The measures have since been put forward

to parliament, as part of the corporate

insolvency and governance bill, and are

being debated Travelodge, owned by

GOLDMAN SACHS, GoldenTree and Avenue

Capital, obtained the secret injunction

despite the laws not being passed

The High Court judgment was published

on Monday, days after Travelodge launched a

company voluntary arrangement It is

proposing to reduce the rents it pays on its

564 hotels by at least 50% until the end of

2021 Creditors, including landlords, will

vote on the proposals on June 19

There has been upset among its 300

landlords, since the CVA allows holders of

other unsecured debts to vote on the plans,

including those held by Travelodge’s equity

owners At the same time only a proportion

by value of landlords owed rent will be allowed to vote on the deal

Travelodge said the CVA was designed to temporarily reduce its obligations

“particularly those relating to its largest lXEDûCOSTûITEM ûLANDLORDûRENTSvû)TûSAIDûITûDIDûnot want to “compromise the claims of other creditors” such as its bank lenders and holders of its senior secured 2025 bonds

It said such other creditors will not be impacted by the CVA, except by waiving their rights to declare a cross-default on launch of the CVA These creditors had already agreed to that

At least 75% of unsecured creditors by value must approve the CVA and at least 50% of those unconnected with the company The CVA can also be challenged up to 28 days after the vote

Goldman and Travelodge’s shareholders have agreed to invest £40m more in the company, £10m of which is only available if the CVA goes through and any challenge is rejected The remaining £30m is contingent

on a £60m facility already provided by the SHAREHOLDERSûBEINGûRElNANCED

Before the CVA was launched, discussions had been held between the company and its landlords about how to cure the rental

default But Travelodge’s proposals were not considered adequate by all the landlords

“As this is a complex process involving around 300 individual landlords, each with differing interests, the company has decided to move to a formal CVA process to achieve the temporary rent reductions required,” it said

If the CVA is rejected, Travelodge has said it could make use of the new cram-down proposals

in the corporate insolvency and governance bill, which allow haircuts to be imposed on all creditors provided one class approves them

Travelodge said the business could lose

£350m of revenues this year due to closures, with much in its peak period between April and September The company’s annual rent bill is £215m Under the CVA, £230m in rent will be paid up to the end of 2021

Nick Leslau’s Prestbury is Travelodge’s biggest investor with 123 hotels It said it was scrutinising the proposals “in order to best protect its position”

Another landlord said the CVA was likely

to go through since it would be hard for most landlords to let their buildings to alternative tenants currently

Christopher Spink

Trang 28

International Financing Review June 13 2020

26

MOELIS CO-PRESIDENT NAVID MAHMOODZADEGAN, P19

“It’s hard to build relationships if

you’re not sitting in front of people”

India bankruptcy freeze to hurt banks

India’s freeze on fresh bankruptcy

proceedings due to the coronavirus

pandemic is expected to hurt the country’s

already fragile banking system and delay

bad debt resolutions

The government amended the Insolvency

and Bankruptcy Code 2016 so that no new

BANKRUPTCYûCASESûCANûBEûlLEDûFORûDEFAULTSû

arising on or after March 25, when the

lockdown was declared, with the suspension

to last for six to 12 months

While the suspension of fresh bankruptcy

cases will help businesses facing a near-term

LIQUIDITYûCRUNCH ûhBANKSûANDûlNANCIALû

institutions are worried that the credit

discipline which was enforced by the

bankruptcy code may go for a toss”, said Aviral

Jain, co-head and managing director of global

RESTRUCTURINGûADVISORYûATû$UFFûû0HELPS

India introduced a new insolvency and

bankruptcy framework in 2016 to try to

speed up debt workouts and has tweaked it

over the years

The clean-up track record for India’s

banking system is weak, though, with few

SIGNIlCANTûRESTRUCTURINGSûINûTHEûPASTûUNTILû

THEûCENTRALûBANKûPUSHEDûlNANCIALû

institutions to appropriately recognise the

stress on their balance sheet The Reserve

Bank of India forced lenders in 2017 to begin

insolvency proceedings against some of the

biggest defaulters, rather than rolling over

bad debts or understating them

Some analysts believe there could be an incentive for banks to revert to their old ways for handling large non-performing accounts in the absence of bankruptcy proceedings and with weak progress on inter-creditor agreements

“Any such action would be negative as it would delay timely recognition of bad assets and affect recoverability,” said Saswata Guha, director at Fitch

Also, given the suspension of section 10 lLINGSûUNDERûTHEû)"# ûWHEREBYûCORPORATEûDEBTORSûCANNOTûVOLUNTARILYûlLEûFORûinsolvency, some businesses may not be able

to get the immediate support that was previously available under the bankruptcy code

“This will lead to unnecessary decay of their businesses for the next six to 12 MONTHS vûSAIDû*AINûATû$UFFûû0HELPSûh'IVENûthese circumstances, it would be prudent if the central bank announces a one-time restructuring scheme to resolve such stressed assets during the six-months moratorium period.”

On March 27, the RBI offered a month moratorium on loans, which was extended by another three months on May

three-22, to tide debtors over the economic crisis

Goldman Sachs expects India’s economy to shrink 45% year on year in the April to June QUARTERûANDûûINûlSCALûûAFTERû)NDIAûimposed a lockdown lasting more than two

months to limit the spread of the coronavirus

DISTRESSED OPPORTUNITIES

$EPENDINGûONûTHEûPACEûOFûECONOMICûrecovery, there is a risk that bad loans as a percentage of total loans will rise more than 500bp, or even double in the next two years from an estimated 9% at the end of March quarter, according to Fitch

Banks are also likely to face bigger principal losses Corporate insolvency resolution proceedings are likely to suffer from lower valuations and a possible decline in interest from bidders because of the uncertainty across many sectors of the economy

“This in turn may result in creditors having to agree on higher haircuts,” said recent note

However, the economic pain is expected

to throw up opportunities for distressed debt investors

“There is an opportunity to extend credit

to good quality borrowers due to an increase

in demand for capital following the slowdown in growth, and a constraint in are less able to provide liquidity,” said Haseeb Malik, partner and head of Asia corporate and traded credit at Varde Partners

Krishna Merchant

Please contact us if you have

information about job moves at

your firm or within the market

Call +44 (0)20 7542 4367

or email steve.slater@refinitiv.com

Trang 29

„ FRONT STORY FINANCIALS

Nationwide demonstrates sub recovery

AT1 revival goes up a notch after UK lender prints

Bankers eye more opportunities as calls come due

NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY laid bare the

remarkable recovery in subordinated debt

levels as it brought the Additional Tier 1

revival to the UK on Wednesday, printing a

£750m deal on more than £4.4bn of demand

denominated AT1 since November, followed

the reopening of the euro AT1 market on

Monday by Commerzbank and ABN AMRO,

with combined demand for the duo peaking

above €19.5bn

But the UK lender was entering a softer

market, after the credit rally stalled on

Tuesday

Leads Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan

and Morgan Stanley opened books for the

transaction with initial guidance of the

ûAREA

4HEûCOUPONûWASûSUBSEQUENTLYûSETûATûû

for an expected £600m–£750m, before

BEINGûlXEDûATûaM

Notably, Nationwide was able to secure a

lower coupon than it achieved with a

coronavirus outbreak

In September it priced a £600m perpetual

Bankers said the deal demonstrated just

how far the market has rallied since the

“AT1s have moved a fair clip from the

wides and are pretty much back to where

syndicate banker “It’s remarkable we’ve

GONEûALLûWAYûOUTûANDûBACKûINûAGAINv

SûnûITSûONLYû!4ûOUTSTANDINGûnûWEREû

Wednesday’s open, according to Tradeweb

Bankers put fair value for the new issue at

n ûIMPLYINGûAûBPnBPû

concession

They said the deal should perform better

on the secondary market than Commerzbank and ABN AMRO’s euro trades, which have traded below par after having been priced without premiums

“Coming off the back of weaker performance yesterday, perhaps [Nationwide]

STARTEDûAûBITûMOREûTENTATIVELY ... class="text_page_counter">Trang 13< /span>

International Financing Review June 13 2020< /b> 11

For daily news stories visit www.ifre.com

@... class="page_container" data-page="15">

International Financing Review June 13 2020< /b> 13< /p>

For daily news stories visit www.ifre.com

@

Albertsons de-risks... class="page_container" data-page="7">

International Financing Review June 13 2020< /b> 5

For daily news stories visit www.ifre.com

@

Morgan Stanley to

Ngày đăng: 01/09/2021, 11:28