Chapter 13 - The value of information. Chapter 13 examines the value of acquiring new information about relevant risks before making an important decision and also analyzes the problem of optimal search for the best alternative.
Trang 1Managerial Economics, 8e William F. Samuelson Stephen G. Marks ●
Chapter Thirteen
The Value of
Information
Trang 2The race isn’t always to the fastest nor the battle to the strongest, but that is the way
you should bet.
~Damon Runyan
Trang 3For discussion
The Stock Market and the Economy
Forecasting the economy is big business.
Trang 41.3
The Value of Information
The Oil Wildcatter Revisited
Imperfect Information
Trang 5Figure 13.1
A Perfect Seismic Test
Trang 6Figure 13.2
An Imperfect Seismic Test
Trang 7Revising Probabilities
Bayes’ Theorem
Health Risks from Smoking
Valueless Information
A New Seismic Test
Trang 8Other Applications
Predicting Credit Risks
Business Behavior and Decision Pitfalls
Example 1: Likely Occupations
Example 2: 3 Boxes
Example 3: Testing for Cancer
Trang 9Other Applications
The Challenger Disaster
and NASA’s Risk Analysis
Trang 10Figure 13.3
The Winner’s Curse
Trang 11Figure 13.4
Yacht Orders and the Stock Market