The Challenges of Unsustainable Growth

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/ Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Land Figure TS.20

Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Communities

The Challenges of Unsustainable

On Technology / Sobre la tecnología

“The essence of modern technology starts

human beings upon the way of THAT

revealing through which reality everywhere, more or less distinctly,

Heidegger (1954)

“toda realidad se converte en recurso”

A new Paradigm: Numbers and Time /

un nuevo paradigma: números y tiempo

Very

Large

Numbers

Long Tern Horizon

DecadesYears

Forces Behind Construction /

las fuerzas detrás de la construcción

http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/presentations/

Growth in Income, Population and Technology /

crecimiento en entradas, poblacion y technologia

Sustainability

and Exponential

Natural Sustainability -Negated

by human intervention

Exponentialoid Unsustainable Growth

to be restrained by Artificial sustainability forces

China Construction Activity Growth / actividad

• Air passengers (Boeing, 07) triple by 2030

• Container shipment (International, 06) double in 10 yrs – Construction in general (as of 2006)

• Global trends (tc = 15 yrs)

Per Capita Consumption (2003)

(Approx population) / kilowatt hour

Affluence: Evolution of Global GDP and

Per Capita GDP

Source: Data from: Maddison, Angus 2001 The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective Paris: OECD.

GDP levels ($,000 Billions)

A.D 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000 per capita GDP

1990 international PPP dollars

GDP per capita

($,000)

Theoretical consumption and depletion of resources

Emissions Data /

data de emisiones

• China, added electrical power capacity

– 2004 of England (one coal plant/2 weeks) – 2005 of Spain (one coal plant/1.5 weeks) – 2006 of France (one coal plant/ week)

– 2007 of Germany ( 1.5 coal plants / week) – Now China is exporting quick coal plant construction to India

Emissions Data /

data de emisiones

• To eliminate global emissions from

current and future power generation needs alone, we need

– Approximately, one nuclear power plant every week from now until the end of 2070 (FT).

– IEA (International Energy Agency 6/6/08:

• Outfit 35 coal fired power stations with carbon

capture and storage equipment yearly

2006

123456789

11

10

12

Pacala and Socolow 2007, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current

Emissions Generation

400

420

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now – Land

Figure TS.20 (Top) Records of Northern

Hemisphere temperature variation during the last 1300 years with 12 reconstructions using multiple climate proxy records shown in colour and instrumental records shown in black (Middle and Bottom) Locations of temperature-sensitive proxy records with data back to AD 1000 and AD

1500 (tree rings: brown triangles;

boreholes: black circles; ice core/ice boreholes: blue stars; other records including low-resolution records: purple squares) Data sources are given in Table 6.1, Figure 6.10 and are discussed

in Chapter 6 {Figures 6.10 and 6.11}

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now – Potential Precipitation

Rainfall is increasing

Figure TS.8

Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#269,14,Figure 3.13

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now Precipitation

Texas has areas that had largest decrease in continental US

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now Precipitation

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#296,40,Figure 3.39

Rainfall became more concentrated and Texas again has such areas

Palmer drought index change 1900-2002, Regional map and graph of global average

Texas shows lesser index Did not graph last 20 years

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#300,44,FAQ 3.2, Figure 1

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now Drought

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now – Hurricanes

Figure TS.11 Tropical Atlantic (10°N–20°N) sea surface temperature annual

anomalies (°C) in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation, relative to the

1961 to 1990 mean.

Available observational evidence indicates that regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world

Observed changes include

Shrinkage of glaciers and sea ice

Snow cover has decreased

Thawing of permafrost,

Later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on lakes/rivers

Lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons

Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges,

Declines of some plant and animal populations,

Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds

Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now Other

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible

human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely

(>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average

temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%)

due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human

emission caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”

Degree of climate change - why is this happening

Source : U.S National Assessment /

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.

Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing longwave radiation while letting the Sun's energy pass through The transparent roof and walls of a greenhouse allow in the sunlight while keeping in the heat Since these gases act similarly in the atmosphere, we call them

greenhouse gases

Degree of climate change - why is this happening

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2

1985 - 345 this is increase almost doubles

2007 - 380+

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

Degree of climate change / cambio de clima

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now – Temperature since 1979

Texas in a relatively rapidly warming area within continental US

Rates of change accelerating as time progresses (colored lines)

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#299,43,FAQ 3.1, Figure 1

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change

What is happening up to now – Ocean Temp.

Figure TS.16

Ocean also shows temperature increase

Temperature, Atmospheric CO2 and Peak Year Estimate

Mean stabilized temp

increase above pre

emissions must peak /

Año

2015 to 2020 2010 to 2030 2020 to 2060 2080 to 2090

Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission by

Sector

CO2 and Temperature Stabilization

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now Other

CO2 and temperature linked but does not lead

• Less water

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Texas in relatively severely affected area

Data / Indicadores de ¿ porque esta pasando?

• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting

• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases in the

• Sea level projected to rise 1999 and 2099 by 0.18 to 0.59 m.

• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an increase in the

numbers of the most intense

• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks

• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) – Gulf Stream will slow down

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Demand Loop /

Circulo de demanda

From

Fig 4.3

& 4.4

Fig 4.5 World-view: Building Demand and

Emissions, Resource Consumption, Climate

Change

POPULATION AFFLUENCE

Global Population Estimates 80% Ratios 20%

5 - 10 % Migration Needs Wants 20% Consumption 80%

growth

Source : IPCC AR4t

Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a temp increase

Taming the Exponentialoid

B C

A

A New Design Paradigm

Time Line = Direction

What happens when we do something for

an indefinite period of time?

What happens when we do something in

extremely large number?

Can we increase numbers indefinitely and for an indefinite time?

Framework of Assumptions and Facts shared between the Artificial and Natural Worlds

Energ

y

Limited

Ulim

n-ited

Supply

Capit al

Natural World Artificial WorldNatural World

Need: A common

currency

Yesterday: Independent

INDEPENDENT

resources waste

Today: Grid

GRID DEPENDENT

resources

waste

Future: Hybrid

HYBRID

waste &

resources waste &

DayNight

From Independent to Grid to Hybrid

HYBRID

waste &

resources waste &

resources

Option 2 Option 1

Small Scale Very Large Scales

The Car Paradigm

New Paradigm?

Situation / el principio precaucionario

when we cannot determine the method which

which is probably the best … if the method selected is not indeed a good one, at last the

Rene Descartes quoted by Koen, 2003,

“Discussion of THE method,” all-is-heuristics

Q & A /

conclusiones, preguntas y respuestas

Our current form of economic development is

not sustainable

This situation will likely reach crisis proportions

in 10-20 years

Issues of sustainability are changing the way

business and government operate

What needs to change to tame exponential

growth?