eWork and ebusiness in architecture engineering and construction

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 5th EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON PRODUCT AND PROCESS MODELLING IN THE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY—ECPPM 2004, 8–10 SEPTEMBER 2004, ISTANBUL, TURKEY... R.Jardim-Gonçal

ARCHITECTURE, ENGINEERING

AND CONSTRUCTION

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 5th EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON PRODUCT AND PROCESS MODELLING IN THE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY—

ECPPM 2004, 8–10 SEPTEMBER 2004, ISTANBUL, TURKEY

Architecture, Engineering and

University of Technology, Dresden, Germany

A.A.BALKEMA PUBLISHERS LEIDEN/LONDON/NEW

YORK/PHILADELPHIA/SINGAPORE

All rights reserved No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permission from the

publisher

Although all care is taken to ensure the integrity and quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers nor the author for any damage to property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein

Published by: A.A.Balkema Publishers, a member of Taylor & Francis Group plc

http://balkema.tandf.co.uk/ and http://www.tandf.co.uk/

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2006

To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of

thousands of eBooks please go to http://www.ebookstore.tandf.co.uk/

ISBN 0-203-02342-0 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 04 1535 938 4 (Print Edition)

eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction—Dikbaş & Scherer (eds.)

© 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 04 1535 938 4

The next generation of eBusiness and eWork—what is needed for the systemic

innovation? An executive summary of the EU supporting research and

Virtual building maintenance: enhancing building maintenance using 3D-GIS

and 3D laser scanner (VR) technology

A persistence interface for versioned object models

73

Semantic parameterized interpretation: a new software architecture for

conceptual design systems

B.Firmenich

Integration of product models with document-based information

Aligning IFC with the emerging ISO10303 modular architecture Can AEC

community take advantages from it?

R.Jardim-Gonçalves, K.Farinha & A.Steiger-Garcao

144

Optimization of project processing in the steel construction domain

155

Location sensing for self-updating building models

Modeling cast in place concrete construction alternatives with 4D CAD

Pilot implementation of a requirements model

A combined product-process model for building systems control

206

FIDE: XML-based data model for the spanish AEC sector

A framework for concurrent structure analysis in building industry

A.Niggl, R.Romberg, E.Rank, R.-P Mundani & H.-J.Bungartz 233

Implementation of the ICT in the Slovenian AEC sector

Towards engineering on the grid

Ž.Turk, M.Dolenc, J.Nabrzyski, P.Katranuschkov, E.Balaton, R.Balder &

296

Managing long transactions in model server based collaboration

A software generation process for user-centered dynamic building system models

Process modelling technology

The development of a technical office organization structure for enhancing

performance and productivity in fast track construction projects

358

Innovative production planning system for bespoke precast concrete products

371

Process and information flow in mass customisation of multi-story housing

RoadSim: an integrated simulation system for road construction management

Connet Turkey—gateway to construction in Europe

A.Dikbaş, S.Durusoy, H.Yaman, L.Tanaçan & E.Taş 408

Process modelling in building engineering

Project planning: a novel approach through a universal e-engineering Hub—a

case study of seismic risk analysis

G.Augenbroe, Z.Ren, C.J.Anumba, T.M.Hassan & M.Mangini

An ontology-driven approach for monitoring collaborative design knowledge

528

Setting up the open semantic infrastructure for the construction sector in

Europe—the FUNSIEC project

C.Lima, B.Fiès, C.Ferreira da Silva & S.Barresi

540

Supporting ontology management through self-describing concepts

569

eWork and eBusiness

An assessment methodology for eBusiness and eCommerce in the AEC sector

The digital dormer—applying for building permits online

594

An inquiry into building product information acquisition and processing

Development and implementation of a functional architecture for an

e-engineering Hub in construction

633

Legal and contractual issues—are they considered in RTD achievments

Modeling of ERP system solutions for the construction industry

Construction informatics themes in the framework 5 programme

DIVERCITY: distributed virtual workspace for enhancing communication and

collaboration within the construction industry

695

Cooperation and product modelling systems

Linking early design decisions across multiple disciplines

Agent-enabled Peer-To-Peer infrastructure for cross-company teamwork

Mapping site processes for the introduction of mobile IT

817

Mobile field data entry for concrete quality control information

Issues of context sensitivity in mobile computing: restrictions and challenges in

the construction sector

843

A context based communication system for construction

Interlinking unstructured text information with model-based project data: an

approach to product model based information mining

900

Live capture and reuse of project knowledge in construction: a proposed strategy

C.E.Udeaja, J.M.Kamara, P.M.Carrillo, C.J.Anumba, N.Bouchlaghem & H.Tan 913

Assistance to building construction coordination by images

Gesprecons: eSafety and risk prevention in the construction sector

Intelligent Construction Sites (ICSs)

Virtual reality at the building site: investigating how the VR model is

experienced and its practical applicability

980

Evaluating competitiveness in construction industry: an alternative frame

Seismic risk and environmental management

Do phased Environmental Management Systems actually benefit SMEs?

Software based knowledge integration for seismic risk management

Real-time earthquake prediction algorithms

IT supported architectural design

Hybrid approach to solve space planning problems in building services

APSIS architectural plan layout generator by exhaustive search

B.Kisacikoglu & G.Çağdaş

1063

Architectural parametric design and mass customization

A model for hierarchical floorplan geometries based on shape functions

E-learning and education

E-learning with puzzle collages

eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction—Dikbaş & Scherer (eds.)

© 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 04 1535 938 4

The global community has stepped into the next revolutionary phase of the long-term evolution of the information society and is now facing a new challenging phenomenon: Ambient Intelligence—providing and getting the right information to the right people in the right configuration at the right time anywhere Our business processes have started to change New working methods are available and asked for; new forms of organizations have been proven to be efficient and effective—the vision of the previous decade have been conquering practice Ambient intelligence is the final keystone for a breakthrough and the industry-wide business revolution, in particular for our one-of-a-kind multi-shareholder and hence very complex projects

Intelligent management of the right information has become the focus of research Computing power is now available on the Web and basic technologies—like P2P, Grid, Agents and Web services—have been developed to ripeness by the informatics community for application in AEC/FM Apply it to your benefit—this is the offer of the informatics community—and also the challenge

Making intelligence happen requires more than solely utilizing the basic technologies and computing power on the Web It means algorithms, either numerical or reasoning ones and it means enhanced semantic data structures, in which the information and knowledge is integrated and can be retrieved on request—when and where and how desired Intelligence does not mean merely powerful numerical algorithms for solving and simulating complex engineering systems—as understood in computational mechanics In this context intelligence means autonomous problem specification, decision preparation for problem solving and to some extent even problem solving itself Such systems, not necessarily located on one computer and eventually distributed throughout the Web, should be capable of recognizing, deciding, retrieving and providing any piece of information, not only explicitly stored data, and at the same time support the co-operation with the end-user to serve him/her intelligently and polite Data structures and hence product and process modelling are as important as the respective algorithms to make this happen, in particular for recognising the context, which is the prerequisite for any autonomous action Data structures, i.e data schemata must inherit meanings, semantics must be more than an identifier They have to encapsulate knowledge on the objects This knowledge must be re-usable in a flexible way and provide for reasoning to interrelate it with knowledge on other objects and their status described by the object data

in order to build up the current context Recognizing the effective state and crystallizing

happen

Research on and building of ontologies besides product data models have increasingly been the focus of research activities in AEC/FM However, do ontologies really replace product data models? Or if not, do they subsume them? It is neither of them Ontologies extend product models adding a new functionality, namely carrying knowledge, which is simply another objective The main objective of product models is the very generic representation of real world objects as well as their respective general relationships to form a generic object net from the singular units, the objects to model a very generic skeleton for any kind of application Other extensions to the generic product model are already on the way For instance, product models are favoured, being the anchor for project documents and structuring the document information space Data and text mining methods are increasingly applied to identify the representative semantic items of the documents and mapping them to the semantics of the product model in order to interpret the meaning of the document, i.e recognizing its information contents and further multi-interlinking it with the product model Again, being accessible via a VR building environment, ambient intelligence makes document information tangible The user is no longer required to search for the right document in order to get the right information, he only has to identify the building object in his VR model and the information system provides him with the right information at any place and any time The power of the automatic selectiveness depends upon the capacity and power of the underlying context-sensitive system—and again context-sensitivity is first of all determined by logic reasoning on product and process models based ontologies We can subsume generic product models and ontologies as well as any other knowledge-related extensions of product models to be intelligent product models

In recent years, the quality of product models has reached a level that allows for the design of reasoning systems to check architecture and engineering systems consistency as well as conformity with building codes and guidelines The few existing and very successful examples have to be considered first attempts, looking at the great variety of reasoning methods provided by basic informatics—this new area has just been touched

on However, the results gained are more than promising The consistency checking methods are an important pre-requisite for co-operative and concurrent working, namely the consistency problems arising from long-term transactions in complex data bases, as it

is the case in our AEC/FM data bases We have now the confidence that they can be handled, but practically sufficient solutions still need valuable research and development efforts to cope with the whole AEC/FM domain

In this context, the numerical and reasoning algorithms are utilised in a new, separate information process, namely the information configuration process, so that we can now distinguish among processes on three different levels Besides modelling the tangible work processes such as the production, organizational as well as the planning and controlling processes, we have to consider the intangible communication processes supporting formal information management and information logistics as well as the configuration processes to determine e.g the user’s information needs, critical notification events or the optimal configuration and presentation of the information In the future our research efforts will more and more shift from basic product and tangible

In recent years, new business concepts and modelling techniques have been developed for the virtual enterprise that have demonstrated their proficiencies in several best practice cases Again ambient intelligence and additionally mobile computing are expected to provide for a push to flexible adopt the formal business models in AEC/FM practice It will be of utmost importance to the industry to extend these organisational models to efficient autonomous teamwork across enterprises anywhere and in any team Flexible systems and automatic configuration methods are required to install immediately operable virtual teams within short lead times, that are supported by sound organization structures, team-focused information spaces and corresponding information logistics Virtual enterprises will no longer be limited to strategic alliances providing interoperability on a corporate and/or product level, but will also be able to significantly reduce the management cost of true interenterprise collaboration on the team level

Focusing on a few selected but outstanding topics of today’s research on Product and Process Modelling the papers of the ECPPM 2004 draw a very good overview on the current state of the art in practice, emerging new business models as well as on the cutting edge technologies available for architecture, engineering and construction It thus provides for solid fundament to explore the outlined possibilities of applying ambient intelligence in our domain

The Istanbul Technical University, Turkey has been selected to host the ECPPM in

2004 After holding the ECPPM 2002 in the former candidate state of Slovenia, the EAPPM therewith again takes a clear stand for integrating researchers from all over Europe and aligning the various activities in product and process modelling for a better future Today, Turkey is potential new EU member state of great importance and an agile economy Moreover, it is the bridge between Europe and Asia and it has been a melting pot of cultures for more than 3000 years

In Istanbul the ECPPM 2004 again introduces a new platform to share knowledge and transform it into an active, fimctional asset ready to be shared, integrated and traded Latest research results and businesses applications in the areas of eWork and eBusiness, product and process modelling, collaborative working, mobile computing, knowledge management, ontology will enable research and industry organisation to develop new lines of services and usher in a new breed of research areas The committees of ECPPM

2004 have selected the best papers and organized attractive sessions for their presentation The number of abstracts submitted was again unusually high and their quality was remarkable

Numerous people have made conference and the proceedings possible We thank the authors, the scientific committee members and the ITU Project Management Centre for their contribution, support and encouragement in compiling this book Sincere gratitude

to each and all of them

Attila Dikbaş and Raimar Scherer Istanbul and Dresden, June 2004

eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction—Dikba§ & Scherer (eds.)

© 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 04 1535 938 4

CONFERENCE CHAIR Attila Dikbaş, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

STEERING COMMITTEE Raimar Scherer, University of Technology Dresden, Germany

Ziga Turk, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Gülsün Sağlamer, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Nüzhet Dalfes, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Yildiz Sey, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

EDITORIAL BOARD Amor, R., University of Auckland, New Zealand Andersen, T., FMRI Consultant, Denmark Augenbroe, G., Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

Bjoerk, B-C, Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Finland

Böhms, M., TNO, Netherlands Cervenka, J., Cervenka Consulting, Czech Republic

Christiansson, R, Aalborg University, Denmark Çağdaş, G., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Dağ, H., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey Drogemuller, R., CSIRO, Australia Ekholm, A., Lund University, Sweden Fischer, M., Stanford University, USA Froese, T., University of British Columbia, Canada

Fruchter, R., Stanford University, USA Giritli, H., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey Goncalves, R., Universidade Nova Lisboa, Portugal

Haas, W., Haas+Partner Ingenieurges mbH, Germany

Kalay, Y., Berkeley University, USA Kanoğlu, A., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Katranuschkov, R, TU Dresden, Germany Lemonnier, A., ADEI, Spain Menzel, K., TU Dresden, Germany Mitchell, J., Graphisoft, Hungary

Sağlamer, A., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Skibniewski, M., University of Purdue, USA Smith, L, Federal Inst of Tech., IABSE WC6, Switzerland

Steinmann, R., Nemetschek, Germany Thomas, K., Waterford Institute of Technology, Ireland

Tzanev, D., University of Sofia, Bulgaria Baslo, M., Istanbul Technical University, Project Management Center Ergun, Z.N., Istanbul Technical University, Project Management Center

PROGRAM COMMITTEE Amor, R., University of Auckland, New Zealand Andersen, T., FMRI Consultant, Denmark Anumba, C., Loughborough Uni., UK Augenbroe, G., Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

Bjoerk, B-C., Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Finland

Böhms, M., TNO, Netherlands Borkowski, A., Polish Acad of Sciences, Poland Cervenka, J., Cervenka Consulting, Czech Republic

Christiansson, P, Aalborg University, Denmark Coyne, R., University of Edinburg, UK Drogemuller, R., CSIRO, Australia Ekholm, A., Lund University, Sweden Fischer, M., Stanford University, USA Froese, T., University of British Columbia, Canada

Fruchter, R., Stanford University, USA Garas, F., Consultant, UK Garrett, Jr., J., Carnegie Mellon University, USA Goncalves, R., Universidade Nova Lisboa, Portugal

Gudnason, G., Icelandic Building Research, Iceland

Haas, W., Haas+Partner Ingenieurges mbH, Germany

Hannus, M., VTT Technical Res Centre of Finland

Howard, R., Technical University of Denmark Juli, R., Obermayer Planen+Beraten, Germany Kalay, Y., Berkeley University, USA Katranuschkov, P, TU Dresden, Germany Llambrich, A., ADEI, Spain Lemonnier, A., ADEI, Spain Liebich, T., AEC3, IAI, Germany Mangini, M., Geodeco S.p.A., Italy Martinez, M., AIDICO Constr Tech Inst., Spain Mitchell, I, Graphisoft, Hungary

Moore, L., University of Wales, EG-SEA-AI, UK Nolan, J., European Commission, Belgium Rezgui,Y., University of Salford, UK

Sozen, Z., Istanbul Technical University, Turkey Steinmann, R., Nemetschek, Germany

Storer, G., Consultant, UK Tzanev, D., University of Sofia, Bulgaria

Vanier, D., National Research Council, Canady Winzenholler, J., Autodesk, Germany

Wix, J., AEC3, IAI, UK Zarli, A., CSTB, France

LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE

Akkoyun, I., ITU, Project Management Center Artan, D., ITU, Project Management Center

Aslay, Z., ITU, Project Management Center

Baslo, M, ITU, Project Management Center

Çağdaş, G., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Çelik, Ç., ITU, Project Management Center

Dağ, H., ITU, Informatics Institute

Erdem, A., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Ergun, Z N., ITU, Project Management Center Gökçe, Umut, ITU Project Management Center, TU Dresden Göksel, Ç., ITU, Faculty of Civil Engineering Ilter, T., ITU, Project Management Center

Oraz, G., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Öney, E., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Sanal, A., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Taşli, R., ITU, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Yaman, H., ITU, Faculty of Architecture

Keynote papers

eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction—Dikbaş & Scherer (eds.)

© 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 04 1535 938 4

construction sector—a global perspective

Roger Flanagan

The University of Reading, UK

ABSTRACT: All organisations, whether they are engineering and design

consultants, contractors, or manufacturers and suppliers in the construction sector, need a strategy to survive, grow and succeed in a

rapidly changing world This paper identifies nine drivers that are impacting construction organisations These drivers emanate from political, environmental, technological, social and economic changes impacting the global economy In facing change, there is a need to balance

the internal juxtaposition of change and continuity The error made by

some organisations is that they see all the new technology and materials

and feel it must be used as soon as possible Stopping to develop a strategy is important; it provides the framework to implement a plan for

the future whilst maintaining the goals and the direction of the organisation

1 INTRODUCTION The challenge for all organisations is facing, managing and implementing change, whilst

at the same time ensuring profitability and maintaining customer satisfaction Construction organisations need to recognise today, the oppoijunities of tomorrow Realism must prevail; construction is predominantly a local business using mainly local labour and complying with local requirements The developed countries will have different needs to developing, and newly industrialised countries For example, India’s need is to have an efficient industry that can provide work for the people, whereas in the USA, with its higher cost base, the need is to build efficiently by exploiting technology, more mechanisation, and off site pre-fabrication wherever possible

Our lives have been transformed by electronics and information technology but, most

of all, by the processes of change itself Knowledge has become pivotal and globalisation has changed the face of competition

Local issues will always be important, but construction sectors around the world are not immune from the global issues that impact upon the economy, demand for their services, and quality of life Drivers can be defined as those forces that cannot be changed and are an inevitable result of development in the broadest sense The drivers of change involve social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends Many countries have undertaken futures studies and Foresight studies with the aim of identifying the drivers that will influence construction in the next 20 years Studies from

10 developed countries (Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland,

Singapore, Sweden, UK and USA) were analysed, from which nine key drivers were identified for the purposes of this paper; it is possible to identify many more drivers Each country is influenced by local needs and challenges, with different emphasis between the developed and developing world However, organisations need to consider the drivers of change and ask: ‘How will the drivers affect our business in the future, are they a threat

or an opportunity, how should we react to the challenge?’

2 THE DRIVERS

1 Urbanisation, growth of cities, and transportation

2 Ageing population

3 Rapid technological and organisational change

4 Environmental and climate change

5 Shift from public to private

6 The knowledge economy and information overload

7 Technologies for tomorrow

8 People, safety and health

9 Vulnerability, security, corruption and crime

2.1 Urbanisation

The move from rural to urban communities, and the change from agricultural to industrial societies in all parts of the world is putting pressure on infrastructure and changing patterns of settlement Between 1990 and 2025 the number of people living in urban areas is projected to double to more than 5 billion (UN, 1996)

In 1800, only 2% of the world’s population was urbanised; this rose to over 30% in

1950, and 47% in 2000; a population that was growing three times faster than the population as a whole Figure 1 shows that the percentage of urbanisation is predicted to

be over 60% by 2030

Growing urbanisation creates congestion, puts pressure on utilities, and results in many social issues In many cities built since the Industrial Revolution there is a decaying infrastructure that is not meeting increased demand By 1900 only 12 cities had 1 million

or more inhabitants, by 1950, this had grown to 83 cities In 2004, there are over 410 cities with over 1 million people (UN) The current stock of infrastructure cannot cope, and modification, modernisation and refurbishment will be required to the existing infrastructure, with particular emphasis on the environmental impact This dilemma is typical of many countries around the world

Figure 1 The growth of urbanisation (The Population Institute, 2004)

People are more mobile, using roads, rail and air more frequently In the UK, the average person travelled 5 miles per day in 1950, and 28 miles in 2001 Projections suggest this could reach 60 miles a day by 2025 (Cabinet Office, 2001) New airport development is fraught with social and environmental problems as airport development increases urbanisation, putting pressure on available land Increased airport capacity will involve new regional airports with technology to cope with noise levels

2.1.1 Growth of cities

Congestion is an increasing problem in urban areas, impacting the economy and the environment European research showed that congestion costs between 1–2% of GDP (Cabinet Office, 2001) New methods of car parking will be required on streets and in car parks Automatic (electro-mechanical) parking without manual assistance is being used in congested city centres, based on an underground silo system making maximum use of limited space (Trevipark, 2004)

2.1.2 Transportation

Modernisation and retrofit is required for existing transport infrastructure Engineers will retrofit roads with new technologies rather than reconstruct them; interactive vehicle-road systems will be widespread

Underground road construction will be inevitable as cities become more crowded According to one report, it is anticipated that 10% of the trunk road network in the UK will be tunnelled by 2050 However, the report highlights the cost of tunnel maintenance—about 10 times that of an equivalent surface road Restricting tunnels to cars and lighter vehicles can improve operation and reduce construction cost by around 40% (RAC Foundation, 2002) This trend is also evident, for example in Sweden, the Gota Tunnel, and the ‘Big Dig’ in Boston Tunnelling must be seen in the future as a viable option if all social and environmental costs are included

Light rail systems and people movers will be used increasingly in urban areas Rail infrastructure is in need of renewal and improvement to take account of high speeds, greater density of use, improved safety measures and modernisation of control systems Maglev (magnetically levitated) trains, that allow speeds of up to 350 km per hour, have experienced a long period of research, but development and application is now proceeding For example, China is considering 250 km of rail extensions north and south

of Shanghai using a maglev system

Greater demand management is needed including price tolling and inter-modality, maintenance planning and durability Advanced transport telematics (ATT), will become prevalent, specifically concerned with improving safety and efficiency in all forms of transport and reducing damage to the environment ATT allows efficient management and improvements in many areas of road transportation, such as demand management and automatic debiting, driver information and guidance, pedestrian and vehicle safety; monitoring of vehicle emissions; trip planning; integrated urban traffic control; public transport; and freight transport

2.2 Ageing population

The developed world has an ageing population whilst populations are getting younger in the developing world According to the United Nations, the number of persons aged 60 years or older was estimated to be nearly 600 million in 2000 and is projected to grow to almost 2 billion by 2050, at which time the population of older persons will be larger than the population of children (0–14 years) for the first time in human history (UN, 2004)

The majority of the world’s older persons reside in Asia (53%) while Europe has the next largest share (25%) Figures 2 and 3 show the percentage of population over 60 in different countries across the world

Figure 2 Percentage of population over 60–2002 (UN, 2004)

Figure 3 Percentage of population over 60–2050 (UN, 2004)

One of every 10 persons is now aged 60 years or older; by 2050, the United Nations projects that 1 person of every 5 and, by 2150, 1 of every 3 will be aged 60 years or older The percentage is much higher in the more developed than in the less developed

regions, but the pace of ageing in developing countries is more rapid, and their transition from a young to an old age structure will be more compressed in time

Few facilities are built to cope with an ageing population, so infrastructure will need to

be built for an inclusive population and to meet a growing need for more healthcare facilities An increasing number of people with severe disabilities are living longer and wanting to live independently Design companies and construction organisations will need to think and work differently to meet this demand

2.3 Rapid technological and organisational change

The new kind of economy will create many more business opportunities, the rate of change will make it more difficult for an organisation to profit from an investment before

a new competitor or development erodes the temporary competitive advantage We are more used to the idea of firms seeking an environment in which they can put down roots and flourish, than to the idea of firms being created for an intentionally brief life to exploit an idea before being washed away by a new wave of innovation (Chatham House Forum, 1998)

Technology enables almost anything to be done; deciding what to do becomes the critical skill In the broadest sense of technology, our capacity to perform tasks, and our ability to perceive and interact with complicated, remote, huge or tiny, abstract or concrete things will be unprecedented Personal computers will not be the main source of information Instead of buying a computer, most people will buy devices with computers

in them (embedded systems): those devices will talk to each other (interoperability) The big breakthrough will come when all communication technologies become integrated Then you will have an all-in-one device that communicates

Agile, knowledge-deploying firms may be able to build sustainable positions in the new environment, but they will do so in an innovative way The electronics industry talks

of ‘copetition’—co-operation merged with frenzied competition In design consultancy businesses, the high cost of developing the integration of CAD and visualisation will mean that development and application costs will be shared between competitors

2.4 Environmental and climate change

There is an increasing environmental awareness by governments, industry, clients and the general public Global environmental problems are high on political agendas with increasing environmental legislation at a national, supranational and international level Ozone depletion, pollution, depletion of resources, and global warming are all common topics of concern

Climate change will affect physical and biological systems in many parts of the world The earth’s climate is predicted to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the build-up of greenhouse gases—primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed Although uncertainty exists about exactly how earth’s climate responds to these gases, global temperatures are rising

A change in a regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies Flooding of settlements near low-lying coastal areas and rivers will be prevalent causing

severe damage to buildings and infrastructure and putting greater pressure on the repair and maintenance sector of the industry Energy demand is expected to increase for space cooling and decrease of space heating, according to location Energy supply may be disrupted in the same way as other infrastructure

2.5 Shift from public to private

There is an increasing trend towards private funding of public infrastructure Infrastructure projects such as power, telecommunications water and sewerage, and transport facilities have a number of characteristics: they lack portability, are rarely convertible to other uses, and investments in them are difficult to reverse Infrastructure projects require very large capital investments, and have long development and payback periods

There has been a change in the forms of financing over the last few decades with a shift from public to private sector financing For example, the UK government implemented a Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and there has been a major privatisation of utilities companies The number of BOT, BOOT, BOO, and public/private partnerships has increased The ‘public good’ nature of infrastructure projects makes them sensitive to public opinion and political pressure The mechanisms to attract private finance into infrastructure provision are becoming more complex and more acceptable with the multi-lateral development agencies and institutional investors embracing the BOT concept The message for construction is that there is no shortage of projects around the world, there is a shortage of bankable projects This new form of procurement will grow in size, importance, and complexity Ways will have to be found for large companies and SMEs

to meet the challenges of the shift from public to private

2.6 The knowledge economy and information overload

The know-how of people is one of the critical determinants of competitiveness, both at a company and national level Rapid technological changes mean that the traditional skill bases are no longer enough and the future will be characterised by skill shortages and skill gaps High obsolescence of knowledge will have to be tackled in the context of an increasingly ageing workforce There will be at least 1 billion university graduates in

2020 compared with a few million in 1920 There will be several billion more sophisticated customers by 2020, who will be better informed and more demanding than ever before (Chatham House Forum, 1998)

Learning matters, for individuals, companies, industry and the economy as a whole The tradition has been to measure success by economic growth and by the level of capital In today’s knowledge economy, knowledge capital is more important Knowledge capital is ‘the source of economic value added by the organization, over and above the return on its financial assets’ (Strassman, 1998) Investment in education and training helps form the human capital—‘the knowledge, skills, competencies, and attributes embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation of personal, social, and economic well-being’ (OECD, 2001)—that is a vital element in assuring economic growth and individual advancement and reducing inequality

Technology gives us more and more access to information, so life gets more and more chaotic ‘Information chaos’ prevails and we need to help people find the information that they want, when they want it

2.7 Technologies for tomorrow

Technology is a word that frightens some, excites others and prompts a feeling of inevitability in the rest There have been major advances in materials and technologies in general Extensive research has been undertaken into the use of composite materials, providing lightweight, strong materials that do not rely on the earth’s non-renewable resources For example, soya and castor seed oils that are cheaper, bio-degradable and an economic multiplier of using local products (ACRES, 2002) Many of the new/smart materials are finding their way into the construction sector, having been first developed for other industries such as automotive, aeronautic and defence

These new materials, combined with the incorporation of intelligence, herald exciting scientific advances Smart or intelligent materials or structures are those that recognise their environment and any changes and can adapt to meet those changes System integration, mass and energy reduction are just some of the benefits of using smart materials The technology of intelligent or ‘smart’ materials uses the knowledge of a number of different technologies such as materials science, biotechnology, biomimetics, nanotechnology, molecular electronics, neural networks and artificial intelligence Four new technologies are considered in this paper:

Biomimetic engineering could provide clothing that is light, responsive and strong and could be used in harsh site conditions Mimicking nature could produce new designs in civil engineering that are lighter, stronger and with greater adaptability to a changing environment New adhesives, based on those produced in nature (the blue mussel), could revolutionise the building process Buildings could be ‘glued’ together, giving stronger,

faster and cleaner construction techniques The possibilities for the use of biomimetics appear to be endless, but the research needed to achieve effective, efficient and viable materials will not happen overnight

2.7.2 Smart materials and structures

Extensive research has been undertaken into the use of composite materials, providing lightweight, strong materials that do not rely on the earth’s non-renewable resources These new materials, combined with the incorporation of intelligence, herald exciting scientific advances

Smart or intelligent materials or structures are those that recognise their environment and any changes and can adapt to meet those changes System integration, mass and energy reduction are just some of the benefits of using smart materials

The technology of intelligent or ‘smart’ materials uses the knowledge of a number of different technologies such as materials science, biotechnology, biomimetics, nanotechnology, molecular electronics, neural networks and artificial intelligence These technologies are inter-related Just as stone implements triggered the Stone Age, alloys of copper and tin triggered the Bronze Age and iron smelting triggered the Iron Age, the new generation of materials will have a revolutionary effect

Smart materials can be further defined as (Jane and Sirkis, 1994):

– Materials functioning as both sensing and actuating

– Materials that have multiple responses to one stimulus in a co-ordinated fashion

– Passively smart materials self-repairing or standby characteristics to withstand sudden changes

– Actively smart materials utilising feedback

– Smart materials and systems reproducing biological functions in load-bearing structural systems

Sensor materials should have ‘the ability to feedback stimuli such as thermal, electrical and magnetic signals, to the motor system in response to changes in the thermo-mechanical characteristics of smart structures’ (Jane and Sirkis, 1994) Actuators should also react to the same stimuli, but their reaction should be to change shape, stiffhess, position, natural frequency, damping and/or other mechanical characteristics

2.7.3 Nanotechnology

Nano as a prefix to any measure is a one billionth For example, a nanosecond is one billionth of a second; a nanometre is one billionth of a metre etc The essence of nanotechnology is the ability to create large structures from the bottom up, that is by starting with materials at a molecular level an building them up The structures created—

‘nanostructures’ are the smallest human-made objects whose building blocks are understood from first principles in terms of their biological, chemical and physical properties

Diamonds are lightweight, very strong and have a number of materials properties that would make an ideal choice of materials for many items, from aeroplanes to cars However, although its versatility and strength are ideal its cost/availability is not

Nanotechnology may provide the answer to this by taking manufacturing down to atomic scale Manufactured products are made from atoms if the atoms in coal are rearranged, the result is diamonds; atoms of sand are rearranged then get computer chips are ‘born’ Rearranging the atoms in dirt, water and air produces grass (Merkle, 1997) A shatterproof diamond could be purpose ‘grown’ to provide an ideal component in the electronics, manufacturing, and construction sectors

2.7.4 Embedded intelligence

A number of industrial applications are beginning to emerge that exploit the newly

emerging Internet capabilities of embedded systems Embedded systems differ markedly

from desktop systems, being fitted with just enough functionality to handle a specific application, enabling them to be produced at low-cost Such systems have a more limited processing speed, CPU power, display capability and persistent storage capability The challenge for developers is to produce embedded systems that are able to provide network fiinctionality within these constraints

The future is where all electronic devices are ubiquitous and networked with every object, whether it is physical or electronic, electronically tagged with information pertinent to that object The use of physical tags will allow remote, contactless interrogation of their contents; thus, enabling all physical objects to act as nodes in a networked physical world This technology will benefit supply chain management and inventory control, product tracking and location identification, and human-computer and human-object interfaces In the construction sector auto-ID technologies will have a huge impact on the supply chain, the design and construction process, and facilities management (Marsh et al., 1997)

2.8 People, safety and health 2.8.1 People in a two-speed world

We have a two-speed world with a widening gap between the ‘haves’ and the nots’ Large areas of the world have missed out on the information revolution, threatening to widen the gap between rich and poor—see Figure 4 We need to bridge the digital divide According to a World Bank report ‘a global explosion of knowledge is underway which may lift hundreds of millions of the world’s poor out of poverty, or it may create a widening knowledge gap, in which poor countries lag further and further behind’

‘have-– The richest 20% of the world’s people consume 86% of all goods and services while the poorest 20% consume just 1.3% The richest 20% consume 45% of all meat and fish, 58% of all energy used and 84% of all paper, has 74% of all telephone lines and owns 87% of all vehicles

– The three richest people in the world have assets that exceed the combined gross domestic product of the 48 least developed countries

– 2/3rds of India’s 90 million lowest-income house-holds live below the poverty line

– The estimated additional cost of achieving and maintaining universal access to basic education for all, basic health care for all, reproductive health care for all women, adequate food for all, and clean water and safe sewers for all is roughly US$40 billion

a year—or less than 4% of the combined wealth of the 225 richest people in the world The message for construction organisations is that more focus will be required on regional markets For example, China has the knowledge and capacity to build innovative and complex structures, but it lacks the finance and the managerial efficiency Hence, finance and managerial systems help to bridge the gap The developing world needs appropriate technology, rather than leading edge advanced technology Local power generation, waste water treatment, and fresh water supply will need to be designed for local provision Affordability is key, both of the capital plant and the community’s ability

to pay for the service

Figure 4 The widening gap between the richest and the rest

Human capital is an increasingly important asset; the tacit knowledge of a business rests within its workers Therefore, the health and work environment of construction workers needs to become more important The overall ‘cost’ of accidents and near misses on a typical building site can amount to some 8.5% of the contract price; applied to the UK’s

£84bn annual output, this is a significant cost (Minister of State for Work, Department for Work and Pensions 13 September 2003) An HSE report calculated that one third of all work fatalities happen in construction and construction workers are six times more likely

to be killed at work than employees in other sectors (HSE, 2003)

New construction processes will lead to greater mechanical assistance for construction workers and the elimination of dirty, dangerous and debilitating activities through the provision of advanced mechanisation They will benefit safety (due to better ways of working) and job satisfaction (due to changes in the nature of the work accompanied by new rules for site management procedures)

Short-term contracts, self-employment and job mobility will increase, creating demands for personal pensions and rental stock Teleworking will increase, but human interaction will remain fundamentally important

New employment patterns with the old idea of the ‘employer and employee’ are becoming obsolete No one can feel secure in the sense of lifetime employment Only those who learn new skills will achieve long-term employability Service providers are growing in importance with outsourcing to specialist providers

2.8.2 Safety

A focus on safety from a design and construction perspective by companies is encouraged by insurance companies and legislation, and is important to employers, employees, and public attitudes Ultimately, safety by design will be viewed as part of the normal design process Accident and illness prevention plans need to be built into schemes at the design stage in response to design-led safety information required by clients Scheme safety requirements will also include information feedback reporting to originating scheme designers and to a master industry reference database

Training, advances and greater use of personal protective equipment and clothing, and using technology will combine to make the construction process safer Better safety policies and regulations will control risks associated with construction sites and environmental decisions

Virtual reality will simulate site working environments for safety training and to help minimise vehicle movements and risks in general Modular design, offsite prefabrication,

‘lntelligent site vehicles’ and use of robotics will reduce the number of traditional tradesmen required, leading to fewer people on-site and a reduction in accidents Automation will also reduce the need for scaffolding and the number of people working

at height More off-site work could tackle the problems of quality, safety and speed of construction

2.8.3 Health

Over 1 billion people in the world are without safe drinking water Almost 3 billion people (roughly half the world’s population) are without adequate sanitation in developing countries Technology has the solutions to provide safe drinking water, but cost is the issue

2.9 Vulnerability, security corruption and crime

Different designs are being studied that minimise the impact of bomb-related threats Structures are being designed such that a column collapse would only result in the collapse of a single floor or area without causing the collapse of the floors below it Reinforcement of the columns in existing buildings by the use of fibre glass or carbon fibre materials is being researched and also how to minimise the impact of shattered glass Experts are investigating the effects of the introduction of an aerosol agent into the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system through the development and installation of devices that are designed to kill microorganisms or filter harmful chemicals

2.9.1 Corruption

Levels of investment, both, foreign and domestic depend on the quality of the business environment of a country The business environment among others is a function of the rule of law, in particular the stability of rules and regulations governing business transactions, political stability and transparency Corruption increases the uncertainty of doing business because it erodes the rule of law and is associated with high levels of bureaucratic red tape Some describe corruption as a tax that adds to the cost of doing business Various business surveys have concerned themselves with the prevalence of corruption in everyday business operations An empirical analysis of transition economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia showed that investment levels in countries with high levels of corruption were 6% lower on average than in countries with medium levels of corruption (21% and 27% respectively) (The World Bank, 2000)

3 THE MESSAGE The best way to predict the fiiture is to create it—ignore the future at your peril!

We have enormous potential for the future This includes technology, improvements in communication, availability of capital, and increases in the quantity and availability of information and knowledge These require a capacity to invent and seize opportunities, and innovative thinking Innovation is the means by which firms can exploit change as an opportunity for a different business or service and gain a competitive advantage

The drivers above relate to a snapshot in time; they will change over time and in importance and impact The impact on the developing world will be different to the developed world For example, in the developing world the results of desertification, deforestation, hunger and depravation will all ultimately impact the developed world For design and construction organisations they represent both a threat and an opportunity

REFERENCES ACRES (2002) Affordable composites from renewable sources, University of Delaware, Center for Composite Materials, USA

Cabinet Office (2001) Transport: trends and challenges Performance and innovation Unit, Cabinet Office, Her Majesty’s Government 13 November 2001

Chatham House (1998) Open Horizons Report from the Chatham House Forum Royal Institute of International Affairs London ISBN 1-86203-094-4

Jain, A.K and Sirkis, J.S (1994) Continuum damage mechanics in piezoelectric ceramics, in Adaptive structures and composite materials: analysis and application, Garcia, E., Cudney, H and Dasgupta, A (Eds) Presented at ASME 1994 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, Chicago, November 6–11, pp 47–58

Marsh, L., Flanagan R and Finch, E (1997) Enabling technologies: a primer on bar coding for construction The Chartered Institute of Building, ISBN 1 85380 081 3

Merkle, RC (1997) It’s a small, small, small, small world, MIT Technology review Feb/March issue

OECD (2001) The Well-Being of Nations: The Role of Human and Social Capital Paris:

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD

RAC Foundation (2002) Motoring towards 2050—an independent inquiry RAC Foundation for Motoring, London

Strassmann, P.A (1998) The value of knowledge capital American Programmer, 11(3), pp 3–10

The Population Institute (2004) Website: www.population-institute.org

Trevipark—http://www.trevipark.co.uk

UN (1999) World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision, Population Reference Bureau, UN

UN (2004) World population trends on web site:

http://www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/a99/a99cht.htm

UN Population Division (1996) World urbanisation prospects, New York, 1996

Urban Task Force (2000) Our Towns and Cities: the future Urban White Paper, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London, UK, 183pp

eWork and eBusiness in Architecture, Engineering and Construction—Dikbaş & Scherer (eds.)

© 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 04 1535 938 4

be measured and can give a sense of direction, then there needs to be a vision to provide the will to make things happen and lastly the change must be in line with the values which a particular society holds dear Vectors, visions and values lie at the heart of the changes which the research community must address but perhaps the greatest of these are values

1 INTRODUCTION One of the pre-occupations of this age is the desire to see into the future This is understandable because the speed of change is so great that if you do not prepare then you begin to lose out in some way This is particularly true of organisations and the concept of the ‘learning organisation’ (Senge, 1990) to prepare for change is now an established metaphor for this preparatory process We need to learn in advance in order that when change occurs we have the tools and culture to adapt to its requirements This has been taken a stage further with foresight studies where the scientific and technological base of whole countries has been marshalled to examine future possibilities and to prepare a research agenda to match Over thirty countries have undertaken such exercises over the past thirty years and many have found it enormously helpful In many cases it has been the process that seems to have been the great benefit To get several hundred experts to engage in such a process begins to change the culture of the country towards a desire for self improvement

Within such foresight exercises there has often been sector groups looking at the needs and possibilities for major industries and of course construction being one of the major manufacturing industries of the world has received due attention Flanagan and Jewell (2003) summarise the results of such exercises (See Table 1) Some aspects need to be interpreted because, for example, Information Technology may be assumed by some countries to be embedded in all the various aspects and therefore it does not necessarily require to be shown as a separate item However it is, of course, a major issue Likewise

the improvements in process, whether design, manufacture, assembly or occupation can

be found within many of the assumptions made about where improvements will occur This kind of exploration sometimes using scenario planning (Ratcliffe, 2004) is healthy for any discipline and reveals the maturity of the industry in terms of its realisation of, and the willingness to, change It can be argued that once a corporate view takes hold, caused by sufficient people seeking and adopting the new view, that change can be rapid and revolutionary It may be that construction is reaching such a point when

it comes to the adoption of Information Technology and process improvement

2 THE TIPPING POINT Malcolm Gladwell (2001) in his international best seller entitled ‘The Tipping Point’ identifies a phenomenon whereby an activity or a technology suddenly emulates the kind

of behaviour that we see when we talk of an epidemic in medical terms It is a significant point in time when there is a dramatic moment when everything can change at once The situation moves from incremental to revolutionary change in what appears to the observer

a very short space of time Gladwell attempts to identify three characteristics required for this phenomenon Firstly, contagiousness where the concept or idea suddenly becomes the

Table 1 Comparison of Foresight issues from various countries (Flanagan and Jewel)

Australia Canada Finland France Germany Ireland Singapore Sweden UK USA

accepted wisdom and produces a new paradigm which the vast majority follow Secondly, a period where little causes can have big effects and thirdly, where change happens not gradually but at one dramatic moment He applies this to many instances where social behaviour becomes revolutionary but the same can also be said of technology

It was the introduction of the personal computer which suddenly made the power of that computational machine available to the masses which in turn led to changes in communications and the way people undertook many of their normal activities whether it

be leisure, or communication with friends or purchasing travel tickets or discovering knowledge The world changed in the space of less than one working lifetime to something quite new Partly it was contagious as the word was passed on as to what this technology could do for the everyday life of people and once imparted it was difficult to stop Partly it was the fact that a relatively small but significant piece of software, the internet, enabled people to access knowledge and interact with it through the machine at their office or their home Partly it was the dramatic possibilities which were seen suddenly by so many that help create a critical mass of activity which brought the investment, intellectual capital and imagination to produce the information infrastructure

we have today Of course there were many factors which aided and abetted the change but viewed from a distance these major drivers created an epidemic in human behaviour which still continues today

3 THE TIPPING POINT FORIT IN CONSTRUCTION

So what happened to the Construction Industry and the application of Information Technology? Here is an industry which appears ripe for reaping the rewards of improved communication It requires vast stores of inter-disciplinary knowledge, it can be aided enormously by visual imaging of a finished product and the simulation of performance when at the present time the cost of physical prototyping is just too prohibitive The recent short term forecasts for when the industry might get its act together e.g when its supply chain will come ‘on-line’ have all proved much too optimistic There have been significant mini epidemics, for example when contractors of all sizes suddenly found the benefit of the mobile phone to communicate in a geographically distant and often dirty and noisy environment The industry was one of the first to take this technology on board

in a big way But what about the big changes where collaborative working in design, manufacture and operation are seen and exercised through a virtual model for the benefit

of all stakeholders in the process: where remote sensing and control allows machines to manage and direct activity in what are often dirty and hazardous environments: where ordering and purchasing all resources can be done electronically: where it is possible to try before you buy and know what you are going to get and why The industry is sometimes described as the world’s largest but here you see this great industry locked into its craft technology which in principle has not changed for millennia The management of large projects has become more complex, certainly so has some of the structures which are now designed (Gehry, 2002) and in many cases they could not be built except for the support of computer technology However the wide scale adoption of the machine to harness its power in a way that can be seen in, say, the aircraft industry, is just not in place despite the excellent aspirations and investment made by enlightened clients such as British Airports Authority Where there is movement it comes from collaboration between individuals such as the way in which the Frank Gehry Partnership has worked with Dassault Systemes to adapt software originally designed for aircraft design to meet the aspirations of one of the world’s great architects It is interesting to see that it was another industry that provided what was needed to achieve a new free form structure which has excited the world

These breakthroughs are relatively minor outbreaks of a benign driver which pave the way for what might be The epidemic is still to come There are signs that mass breakout

is possible soon and this conference identifies the work of some of the ‘thought leaders’

in the field It addresses what is happening, what might happen, what should happen and what should definitely not happen! Although the term ‘thought leader’ seems to have Orwellian overtones it does capture one important aspect It identifies the power of thought and the imagination to provide visions of the possible This aids the first ingredient of the ‘tipping point’, that of contagion So what of the other two ingredients?

If we can identify little causes which can have big effects then we may be well on the way to radical change A view of the industrial/social world we live in would provide us with the following trends which coming together might provide the spark for ingredient number two As with all epidemics it is impossible to predict but somewhere in the soup

of ideas and developments lurks a minor change which will revolutionise the way the construction industry works

• Convergence: The last decade has seen a massive change in digital technologies which

has seen all forms of media whether it be visual imagery, radio, television, audio, personal computers or telephone communications all come together in one digital representation Mobile phones today now have the capacity to bring most of these aspects together It does not end there Society across the world is changing and despite resistance in some quarters there is much more sharing of knowledge leading

to a common or converging viewpoint which may in the long run lead to globalisation

of values The seduction by western values is seen by many to be one of the downsides

of such open access which is controlled by a few Will the construction industry come together in a way we have never seen before?

• Connectivity: Alongside the convergence through technologies has been the vast

increase in communication and the access we have in the developed world to all forms

of information We can now be ‘connected’ anytime any place anywhere and with the development of ambient computing this is going to extend still further With

connectivity comes contact, access and the inability to hold on to and protect specialist information for more than a short period The hold of the professions and their

‘fortresses of knowledge’ protected by their examination systems and barriers to entry begins to disappear and boundaries between knowledge disappear Connectivity allows us to change quickly and for the ‘virus’ of change to move through the

population unfettered, unleashing a contagion of ideas which can tip us into a new and unknown situation

• Culture: As the technologies converge and connectivity allows the spread of the

contagious idea then it needs a receptive culture within which it is easy to ‘breed’ The present generation of university leavers are the first cohort of graduates who have been through the complete school system where information technology was an integral part of the curriculum from the very first year of entry into education To them it is the norm whereas to previous generations it had to be learnt and absorbed and systems had to be re-learnt to embrace change The information technological change is now endemic in society as a whole and it is even stranger to be outside it than to be in it

• Creativity: Do computers release creativity or constrain it? In past generations the need

to standardise and formalise to use the machine was prevalent Now this is changing as the nature of the machine becomes more flexible and adaptive There is still a long way to go and the culture has changed so that there is mutual give and take between machine and user to which both are becoming more accustomed The games industry

is a leading example where the users speak the language and seldom seem to have to read any rule book before they can participate at a high level This natural take up needs to extend to industries like construction

• Content improvement: As the content of what is provided through the technology

improves so it is more likely that more people will want to use it When that content of knowledge or access becomes indispensable for normal living then the technology also becomes indispensable In the developed nations we are getting close to this situation

as our financial, employment, consumerism etc is being built around electronic processing For the construction industry we have some way to go but the industry is a

laggard in the race towards electronic business and falls sharply behind transport, banking and other sectors

• Collaborative working: When the stakeholders need to work together for maximum

efficiency and they are geographically separated then the drive for integrated

communication and sharing becomes paramount In addition the real benefits often arise when the stakeholders work together and it is just not possible for one

organisation to act alone The benefits of airline booking of tickets would not be as successful if each company developed its own system which could not speak to the others Where the benefit is of this nature it may be necessary for Government or a major player in the software industry to take the lead In addition there must be willingness for all parties to work together in pre-competitive research to establish the platform

• Content: With the growing developments in the hard technologies comes an increased

impetus to provide the content for users to find the technology even more usefiil The entertainment industry has been one of the first to realise the potential for extra services and education is following close behind, often using the same technology It has been argued that the distribution networks required for the content may create a monopoly of knowledge, not unlike the half a dozen or so global film distributors who control the films made available to us for general viewing This could be dangerous as

we then leave the access to knowledge and the values that the knowledge conveys in the hands of a few

• Cost reduction: As quickly as a new refinement to the technology takes hold then an

improved version is produced This highly competitive market creates a leap frogging effect which sometimes leaves the purchaser bewildered and unable to invest without substantial risk However the overall impact is for more computing power to become available to each individual which in turn enables him or her to do more for the same cost and in some cases to be more flexible in their use of the technology, thus

removing some of the barriers to use

• Common Standards: This may be a temporary factor in the tipping point agenda The

technology is moving so fast that the hurdles we see now to inter-operability are likely

to disappear and the issue will become unimportant However for the time being the move towards standards for inter-operability such as the Industry Foundation Classes (IFCs) is opening the opportunity to exchange information and to integrate processes together This in turn allows the collaborative working around a single model which has long been the holy grail of the IT model builders

We may well find within the above list that key activity which will tip the balance and bring the construction industry to the fore in e-business It is likely to be a combination of many of the above but one new development could well take us into a new digital craftsmanship to replace the old If this is about to happen and many think the time is ripe then we need to consider future possibilities and what it might be like to live in this new world What will be the advantages and the pitfalls? To do this we need to consider the manner in which we approach the subject This can be considered under three headings namely, vectors, visions and values All three share a degree of inter-dependence but all three have significant lessons to teach us