http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-forex.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk Exhibit 6.1 Measuring Foreign Exchange Market Activity: The Trading Volume of Currency Transactions Per Hour ※
Trang 1CHAPTER SIX
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKET
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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
• Spot market for Foreign Exchange
– Market characteristics
– Arbitrage
• Forward market for Foreign Exchange
– Why is it used
– Market characteristics
– Arbitrage
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3
ORGANIZATION OF
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
– Large commercial Bank – Foreign exchange brokers in the interbank market
– Commercialcustomer: MNCs – Central Banks
– Arbitrageurs.
– Traders – Hedgers – Speculators
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Trang 26
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Trang 3http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-forex.html?mod=mdc_curr_pglnk
Exhibit 6.1 Measuring Foreign Exchange Market Activity: The
Trading Volume of Currency Transactions Per Hour
※This exhibit illustrates the trading volume of currency transactions ebbs and
flows as the major currency trading centers across the globe open and close
throughout the day
※The per-hour trading volume data suggests that Europe is the major center for
foreign exchange transactions, the U.S is the next, and Asia is the third
Transactions in the Interbank Market
• In interbank markets, forward exchange rates are usually quoted for value dates of 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months
• Buying FX forward and selling FX forward
describe the same transaction (the only difference is the order in which currencies are referenced)
– A FX forward contract to deliver dollars for Euros in six months is buying Euros forward with dollars or selling dollars forward for Euros
TRANSACTIONS IN THE INTERBANK MARKET
• A foreign exchange swap transaction (FX swap) in
the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value dates with the same counterparty
• Some different types of FX swaps are:
– Spot against forward
• The dealer buys a currency in the spot market and simultaneously sells the same amount back to the same bank in the forward market
Trang 4TRANSACTIONS IN THE INTERBANK MARKET
• For example, if a Taiwanese firm needs US$1 million for the
following 3 months, it can enter into a spot against forward swap,
in which this firm buys US$ 1 million at the spot exchange rate
today (e.g., NT$34/US$) from a bank, and this firm agrees to sell
US$ 1 million back to the bank after three months at the 3-month
forward exchange rate (e.g., NT$32/US$)
• Because these two transactions are in a single contract with one
counterparty, it can save some transaction costs
• A swap can be viewed as a technique for borrowing another
currency on a fully collateralized basis (in the above example, the
NT$ is the cash collateral for borrowing US$ 1 million)
– Forward-forward
• For example, a dealer sells ￡1,000,000 forward for US dollars
for delivery in two months at $1.842/￡ (two-month forward
exchange rate) and simultaneously buys ￡1,000,000 forward for
delivery in three months at $1.84/￡ (three-month forward
exchange rate)
Transactions in the Interbank Market
• In addition to traditional spot, forward, or swap foreign
exchange transactions, there are new types of
transactions, e.g., nondeliverable forwards
• Nondeliverable forwards (NDF)
– Created in the early 1990s, NDF is now a relatively common
derivative in the interbank market
– Similar to traditional FX forward contracts, except that they
are cash-settled (in domestic currency) and the foreign
currency being sold forward or bought forward is not
delivered physically on the maturity date
– The profit or loss of the NDF at the time of the maturity date
is calculated by taking the difference between the agreed
forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate at that time
point, for an agreed notional amount of funds
TRANSACTIONS IN THE INTERBANK MARKET
– For example, consider a NDF of buying US$1,000,000 with NT$
after one month and the one-month forward exchange rate is NT$34/US$ After one month, if the spot exchange rate becomes NT$35/US$, the holder of the NDF can earn (NT$35/US$ – NT$34/US$) × US$1,000,000 = NT$1,000,000
– Note that it is not necessary to buy foreign currency (US$1,000,000) with the domestic currency (NT$34,000,000) after one month
• Comparing to the traditional forward contracts, on the maturity date, the holder should buy US$1,000,000 with NT$34,000,000 physically and resale US$1,000,000 in the market to exchange for
NT$35,000,000
– Another advantage of using NDFs is for emerging market currencies–currencies that typically do not have liquid money markets, because it is not necessary to buy or sell the foreign currency physically
• Every three years, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) conducts a survey to estimate the global trading activity of traditional foreign exchange transactions
• The BIS data for surveys from 1989 to 2010 is shown
in Exhibits 6.2.
• For the market size in Exhibit 6.2
– In the surveys of 2007 and 2010, the daily global trading amount in traditional foreign exchange market activities are
$3.32 trillion and $3.98 trillion, respectively – Those results imply increase of nearly 19.8% for the foreign exchange trading from 2007 to 2010
Trang 5Exhibit 6.2 Global FX Market Turnover (daily averages in April, billions of US$)
Generally speaking, all three categories of traditional currency transactions have rising trends from 1989 to 2010
http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfxf10t.pdf
• Buy low in one location & sell high in another location
In the FX market
– The buying price (ask price) in one bank is lower than the selling
price (bid price) of another bank
• Market adjustments which will eliminate locational
arbitrage
In the FX market:
– The ask price will rise and bid price will fall
– Till ask price (of one bank) is greater than or equal to bid price (of
another bank)
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CASE 1: ARBITRAGE POSSIBLE
• New York Bank quotes:
– Ask $1.84/1BP – Bid $1.81/1BP
• London Bank quotes:
– Ask $1.89/1BP – Bid $1.86/1BP
CASE 2: NO ARBITRAGE POSSIBLE
• Chicago Bank quotes:
– Ask $0.64/1SF – Bid $0.60/1SF
• Berlin Bank quotes:
– Ask $0.66/1SF – Bid $0.62/1SF
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20
THE SPOT MARKET
CURRENCY ARBITRAGE
– For example, suppose we observed the following for the
Mexican peso (Ps) and the Swiss franc (SF):
Ps per $1 = 10.00 in Mexico
SF per $1 = 2.00 in New York
Ps per SF1= 4.00 in Zurich
– Is there an arbitrage opportunity, suppose you have $100?
Trang 6New York
Mexico Zurich
Start
$100
Ps 1.000
SF 250
Finish
$125
1 Sell $100 in Mexico at Ps10/$
Divided by Ps4/SF
Divided by
SF2/$ Multiplied Ps10/$
2 Buy these SFr in Zurich at Ps4/SF
3 Buy dollars
in NY at
SF2/$
4 Round-trip profit equals $25
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THE SPOT MARKET
CURRENCY ARBITRAGE
– Example, suppose the exchange rate for the British pound
and Swiss Franc
– Pound per $1 in New York = 0.6
– SF per $1 in Frankfurt = 2.00
– SF per pound in London = 3.00
– Is there an arbitrage opportunity, assume you have $100?
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Example: US corporation receive dividend from France Subsidiary Company They decide to invest this money to another company in Swiss Whether they buy SFr, as follow information:
$1.4341-1.4372/€
€0.6218-58/SFr
SFr1.6010-40/€
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• Buy Forward Contracts (take a Long Position in the FM):
When you expect the future spot rate to be higher then the current forward rate:
– You will gain when the future spot rate is higher than the current forward exchange
rate
– You will lose when the future spot rate is lower than the current forward exchange
rate
• Sell Forward Contracts (take a Short Position in the FM):
When you expect the future spot rate to be lower then the current forward rate:
– You will gain when the future spot rate is lower than the current forward exchange
rate
– You will lose when the future spot rate is higher than the current forward exchange
rate
SPECULATION: THEORY
Trang 7• Spot and forward rate are closely linked to each other and to interest in
different currencies through the medium of arbitrage
• The movement funds between two currencies to take advantage of
interest rate differential is a major determinant of the spread between
forward rate and spot rates
• The forward discount and premium is closely related to the interest
differential between the two currencies
• According to interest parity theory, the currency of the country with a
lower interest rate should be at a forward premium in terms of the
country with higher rate
• In the efficient market with no transaction cost, the interest
differential should be equal to forward differential
• Covered interest arbitrage forces interest rates on different currencies to
be at parity with each other
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• Fund will flow from home country to foreign country if and only if:
• Fund will flow from foreign country to home country if and only if:
S
F
r
r
f
h
1
1
f
h r
r S F
1 1
) 1 ( ) 1
S
F
) 1 ( ) 1
S
F
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Indicate: f: forward rate compute from interest rate parity equation,
F: forward rate in the market
If F > f : sell foreign currency in forward rate
If F < f : buy foreign currency in forward rate
) 1 (
) 1 (
f
h
r
r s f
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Illustration,
• Suppose an investor with $1.000.000 to invest for 90 days
Interest rate and exchange rate in exchange market as follows:
– 8%per annum (2%/90 days)in dollar, 6%/year (1.5%/90 days)
in SFr – Spot rate: SFr1.5311/$, 90-day forward rate: SFr 1.5146/$
Trang 8Illustration,
• Suppose an investor with $1.000.000 to invest for 90 days
Interest rate and exchange rate in exchange market as follows:
– 8%per annum (2%/90 days)in dollar, 6%/year (1.5%/90 days)
in SFr
– Spot rate: SFr1.5311/$, 90-day forward rate: SFr 1.5236/$
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• Example:
• Suppose: 7%/year for dollar in New York, 12%/year for £
in London - Spot rate: £ =$1.75, one year forward rate : £
=$1.68
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity? Compute the profit
using $?
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• When transaction cost exist, how can define arbitrage opportunity
• Defined:
– Sb& Sa: Bid price and ask price (spot rate) – Fb& Fa: Bid price and ask price (Forward rate) – rha& rhb: borrow rate (ask rate) and lend rate (bid rate) in home currency – rfa& rfb: borrow rate and lend rate (foreign currency)
There are two cases:
– borrow in home currency – Borrow in foreign currency
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• Borrow in home currency
• Fb> fa: company can gain in the foreign exchange, by selling foreign currency at forward rate
• Borrow in foreign currency
• Fa fb: company can gain in the foreign exchange, by buying foreign currency at forward rate
i fa
i S F
fb
ha a
1 1
i fb
i S F
fa
hb b
1 1
Trang 9• Suppose the annualized interest rate on 180-day GBP
deposits is 67/16-5/16%, meaning that GBP can borrowed at
67/16% (ask rate) and lent at 65/16% (bid rate) At the same
time, the annualized interest rate on 180-day AUD deposits
is 93/8-1/8%, spot rate and 180 day forward quotes on AUD
are £0.4706-80/AU$ and £0.4811-75/AU$ respectively Is
there an arbitrage opportunity? Compute the profit.
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• Suppose the annualized interest rate on EUR deposits is
7-7.5%, meaning that EUR can borrowed at 7.5% (ask rate)
and lent at 7% (bid rate) At the same time, the annualized
interest rate on USD deposits is 91/4-3/4%, spot rate and one
year forward rate quotes on EUR are 1.2320-60$/€ and
1.2430-80$/€ respectively Is there an arbitrage
opportunity? Compute the profit.
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• Covered cost and arbitrage opportunity
• American company will pay €100.000 due in 180 days They can one of two ways as follows:
– Negotiating 180 day forward contract – Investing in money market, borrow USD -> convert to Euro -> invest Euro at r can get€100.000 in 180 days
– Compare 2 technical term and make a decision EX.: American company have to pay€100,000 to German company due in
180 days Company want to expose this payment Suppose, Spot rate:
$1.14/€, and 180 day-Forward rate:$1.24/€ Interest in European money market: 8%/year for $ and 10%/year for€
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n t
t
m j
t j t
j
k
1
= 1
, ,
1
ER E CF E
= Value
E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S parent at the end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent
Forces of Arbitrage