Autonomous vehicles and impact on cities

Road Capacity • AVs will run closer together, increasing highway / junction capacity • Road capacity is estimated to increase by a conservative factor of 2 or 3 • Real-time, data-driven

Autonomous Vehicles and Impact on Cities

LEEDS UNIVERSITY STELIOS RODOULIS

What’s in a car?

• The Big Auto Manufacturers’ approach: ABS, cruise control, hazard

recognition, collision prevention, steering/parking assist, active lane keeping, blind-spot identification, etc

• Google’s approach: ‘shooting for the moon’

• Incremental evolution VS Google’s disruptive approach

Nomenclature

• Autonomous Vehicles, Robocars

(Brad Templeton), Driverless

Cars, intelligent drive systems,

Self-Driving Cars, Unmanned

Ground Vehicles (MIRA)

• “Driverless Car” = the new

“Horseless Carriage” ?

Levels of Automation

MIRA LTD

• Lower operating costs

• ‘Value of Time’ in transport economics and appraisal

methods needs to be reconsidered

• Changes in car ownership & better vehicle utilisation

• The Sharing Economy and “Mobility as a Service”

10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology

3 Smarter + Faster = Efficient

• Smoother, faster and more predictable traffic flows = reduction in congestion

4 Improved Quality of Life

• New mobility opportunities regardless of age, physical or driving ability

• Lower emissions (electric or combustion engine) due to the AV-controlled

optimal energy utilisation and lighter vehicles

Blind man sitting in the driver's seat of Google's self-driving Prius

5 Road Capacity

• AVs will run closer together, increasing highway / junction capacity

• Road capacity is estimated to increase by a (conservative) factor of 2 or 3

• Real-time, data-driven traffic management

• This would materially affect the way transport infrastructure is appraised and planned

‘Rush hour’ by Black Sheep Films (2014)

6 Land Use Planning & improved urban realm

• Singapore is already constructing a 200 hectare ‘Autonomous Transit Oriented

Development’ at OneNorth

• Blighted housing stock close to traffic, fumes, and noise may become more desirable and increase in value

• De-cluttering of hard traffic management measures (e.g road signs, gantries)

• Streetscaping and shared space schemes may become more common

10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology

7 Parking

• Cars with no drivers can park more closely together

• Decreased demand for parking near the destination

• City centre car parks: change in land use?

8 Public Transport

• Impact will vary according to density, provision, demand

• AVs as an extension of public transport?

• We must plan to avoid Transport Poverty

9 Infrastructure investments

• Increasing capacity on existing roads reduces the need for new road

infrastructure

10 Urban Sprawl

• More comfortable and potentially productive commuting = Urban Sprawl?

• Road pricing can be used to alleviate/control urban sprawl

Planning

• AVs impact will vary according to a city's age, size, morphology and existing transport provision

Legislation and Liability

• Insurance Market: why would you need to pay for insurance in a

world with no accidents?

• Who would take responsibility in an accident: the occupant, vehicle manufacturer or software company?

• New methods of risk management will be required and the insurance industry will need to adapt to the technology

The Challenges - Safety

• The Trolley Problem: how will

an AV choose between

damaging itself and/or the

people in it, or a child in its way?

• Hardware or software failures and cyber-attack scenarios

• Artificial Intelligence may

provide some solutions

• Generation Y is more interested in owning and using their latest

smartphone, than driving the latest hot-hatch car or even getting a driving licence

• Breakdown of traditional concepts of owning and driving cars

• Driving as an activity:

enjoyment, chore or inconvenience?

The Challenges - Acceptability

• Potential resistance to the

technology by the ‘Top Gear’

demographic

• Race Tracks & Motorsports

can be one outlet for car

enthusiasts who prefer control

and like to drive ‘manually’

• People’s acceptability of

driverless technology is likely

to be gradual, becoming more

positive as people or society

experience the range of

benefits

• Significant societal, economic and environmental benefits but also barriers to the deployment of AVs

• The profile of AVs is promoted in the mainstream by Google et

al, but it is largely ignored in current urban and transport

planning thinking

• Cities need to understand and incorporate AVs into their future visions, from today onwards

Charging for AVs = a new smart urban

The price set for using or accessing an AV will have a direct impact on how cities experience the benefits (or disbenefits) of AVs

What are the advantages and disadvantages of each pricing scenario?

Impact on Low Price Scenario Charging for AVs High Price Scenario Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic

(VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it

Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use

Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

Impact on Low Price Scenario Charging for AVs High Price Scenario Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic

(VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it

Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use

Public Transport Public Transport subtraction Death

of local bus networks, except on very dense transport corridors

AV technology used mainly to lower fares for driverless bus/shared taxi networks – through

a reduction of operating costs

Impact on Low Price Scenario Charging for AVs High Price Scenario Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic

(VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it

Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use

Public Transport Public Transport subtraction Death

of local bus networks, except on very dense transport corridors

AV technology used mainly to lower fares for driverless bus/shared taxi networks – through

a reduction of operating costs

Car Ownership Patterns Variety of car ownership models: outright ownership, on-demand hire

(from a private or public operator), car sharing

Few people own an AV outright, most share or hire on-demand

Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

Impact on Low Price Scenario Charging for AVs High Price Scenario Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic

(VKT), offset by improvement in ability of road network to handle it

Price as a deterrent for km travelled or an incentive to change time of travel (e.g cheaper in off peak) Price to constrain car use

Public Transport Public Transport subtraction Death

of local bus networks, except on very dense transport corridors

AV technology used mainly to lower fares for driverless bus/shared taxi networks – through

a reduction of operating costs

Car Ownership Patterns Variety of car ownership models: outright ownership, on-demand hire

(from a private or public operator), car sharing

Few people own an AV outright, most share or hire on-demand

consumption

Concentration of homes / workplaces leading to urban containment which may also constrain energy consumption

• Price of AVs must be balanced and ensure that transport is inclusive for all and avoid transport poverty

• AV pricing has the potential to contribute or control urban sprawl

• Cities will face many dilemmas regarding road capacity:

• Allow more vehicles on the road OR reallocate road space to more sustainable transport modes, such as walking and cycling or

other uses?

• Will induced demand create need for more roads?

• City authorities need to have a clear appreciation of what land is likely to become available (or not) and a strong vision/leadership for its re-use or management

Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

www.jacobs.com | worldwide

TECHNOLOGY, AND I'M REALLY LOOKING

FORWARD TO A TIME WHEN GENERATIONS AFTER

US LOOK BACK AT US AND SAY HOW RIDICULOUS

IT WAS THAT HUMANS WERE DRIVING CARS”

SEBASTIAN THRUN (GOOGLE)

Stelios Rodoulis stelios.rodoulis@jacobs.com