Description of a generic computer model for the evaluation of various forestry investments... Forestry Investment Computer Models To evaluate the NPV and LEV of particular plantation
Trang 1Chapter 13:
FINANCIAL MODELING
CASE STUDY IN FORESTRY
PROJECT EVALUATION.
Description of a generic computer model for the
evaluation of various forestry investments.
Trang 2Forestry Investment
Computer Models
To evaluate the NPV and LEV of
particular plantations.
The roles of modelling in
forestry investment.
To allow sensitivity and risk
analyses of forecast variables.
To facilitate analysis of
various cropping scenarios:
eg; harvest lives, planting
Trang 3Forestry Models
Modelling is useful because:
1 There are many data types.
2 The computational inter-relationships
between data types are complex: eg
rainfall/soil type/location/species.
3 Plantation life spans are very long.
4 Many scenarios are possible.
Trang 4Forestry Models:
Specific Vs Generic
A Specific model can evaluate
individual forestry projects.
A Generic model can evaluate a variety
of separate investment projects for a
variety of users.
Trang 5Forestry Models:
Specific Vs Generic Choice
Specific –
Shorter development time
easier to develop
less data required
- limited to one user/one application
a once off application means that there
are no economies of scale.
Trang 6Forestry Models:
Specific Vs Generic Choice
Generic –
multiple applicability means economies
of scale
wide range of users and applications
can be commercially marketed
- long development time
extensive data required
data relationships more complex.
Trang 7Forestry Investment
Computer Models
There are two types:
1 For evaluating forestry
investments as
independent projects
1 For evaluating forestry
projects within the
overall operations of a
business firm.
Trang 8Forestry Investment
Computer Models
Who are the
ultimate users?
Model Design Considerations I:
What software
should be used to
build the model ?
What hardware
platform should be
Trang 9Forestry Investment
Computer Models
How is the model
going to be tested?
Model Design Considerations II:
What type of user
interface is best
Who is responsible for
maintenance and
updates?
Trang 10Forestry Investment
Computer Models
Ch 13 reviews a generic computer
model: the ACTFM
Australian Cabinet Timbers Financial Model.
This model:
Suits investors, consultants, landholders,
and government agencies
Covers over 30 native species
Uses linked sheets in an Excel workbook
Is menu driven.
Trang 11ACTFM- Behind the Scenes
1 Information about the program; data
relating to MAI’s, stumpage prices, and harvest ages of over 30 different cabinet timber species
2 Data relating to plantation
establishment and maintenance costs
3 Input tables for the entry of
alternative MAIs, prices and costs,
and harvest age data
The Excel sheets behind the menus hold:
Trang 12ACTFM- Behind the Scenes
A picture of the logical layout.
Trang 13ACTFM- The User Interface
An output screen showing results
calculated from input selections.
Trang 14ACTFM- The User Interface
Selected dialog screens
An annual cost sheet
A prescriptive
cost sheet
Trang 15ACTFM- The User Interface
“Costs during plantation” sheet
A dialog screen.
Trang 16ACTFM
A Generic Computer Model
This model was difficult to
develop as it required extensive data collection, complex
computational formulation, and extensive interface planning,
but it is very successful, and has wide application.