Green Energy and Technology - Energy for a Warming World Part 9 doc

Population pressure and demand for consumer goods causes a continuing rapid growth in industrial output, soaking up mineral and other re-sources, so that by 2070 the costs of extraction

144 5 Known Knowns and the Unknown

expenditure in the region of 4% of the global economy is called for It should be noted that this money does not disappear, like investments in modern banks are prone to do, it gets spent on real physical infrastructure It represents a good old Keynesian boost to the world economy

5.4 The Unknowable

From the miniscule scale of nano-engineering, where molecules are massaged to form novel materials, to electrical engineering on the macroscopic scale where massive components are manipulated to build power stations and other large elec-trical systems, in general the technical problems that are encountered by scien-tists/engineers, have known or knowable solutions Because of this most technolo-gists would probably aver that engineering in the physical world is largely ‘child’s play’, by comparison with the complexities and imponderables inherent in the social version, where problems seemingly have no definitive answer, or the an-swers are politically unpalatable, or they have a myriad of anan-swers all of which generate further problems! Unknown knowns or perhaps known unknowns? Who knows? The social engineering of reluctant and recalcitrant mankind, away from its drug-like dependency on fossil fuels, which is absolutely essential to a success-ful transition to renewable energy, seems a daunting task, if just democratic and market levers are employed On all the available evidence, it will call for voter and consumer manipulation of a truly Machiavellian quality and scale to shift en-trenched attitudes in the market fixated democracies It is difficult to be confident that this will ever happen What is really needed is wise leadership But politicians who are sufficiently knowledgeable to be wise seem no longer to exist

Returning to the world of do-able engineering, an effective ecogrid, as we have now seen, can be built, but it will be necessary to divert a considerable proportion

of the globe’s human resources and capital towards implementing this task The question that then arises is to what extent, and in what way, this huge undertaking will impinge on the rest of the global economy? To answer this kind of broad economic question it is usual to resort to a sophisticated computer model of the economy, but even with the best of these it is prudent to exercise a suitable degree

of caution in applying or interpreting the results, because:

a model is a simplified representation of reality If it were a perfect replica, it would not

be useful For example, a road map would be of no use to drivers if it contained every ture of the landscape it represents – it focuses on roads and omits, for example, most fea-tures of buildings and plants along the way [29]

At the level of global economics and population dynamics one such model is WORLD3, which is described in detail in ‘Limits to Growth’ (LTG) [29] This simulation is a complex, non-linear, delayed-response computer program, which keeps track of stocks such as population, industrial capital, persistent pollution,

5.4 The Unknowable 145

and cultivated land It calculates the movements of major parameters such as population (through births and deaths), capital stock (through investment and depreciation), arable land (through erosion, pollution, urban and industrial sprawl) and non-renewable resources All of these parameters and others are linked through multiple nested feedback and feedforward loops The primary global out-puts from the program are presented in three categories, namely: ‘state of the world’, ‘material standard of living’, and ‘human welfare’, as a function of time The first category includes available resources, food production, industrial output, population level and pollution level Material standard of living includes life ex-pectancy, food/person, consumer goods/person and services/person, while human welfare presents us with the changes over time in the model ‘world’ in a human welfare index and in the human ecological footprint

One of the computer runs described in LTG, directs the WORLD3 model of the global economy to simulate a scenario in which a massive enforcement of pollu-tion reducpollu-tion is introduced into the model economy In a ‘world’, which in 2000 has plentiful non-renewable resources, and in which human beings have developed sophisticated technology to extract these resources, the assumption is made that mankind decides to make a concerted effort to tackle pollution by diverting 4% per year (about $ 2 trillion in 2000) of global output into technology to eradicate it, this effort commencing in 2002 This scenario is not unlike one in which humans might consider diverting 4%/year of global capital into building an ecogrid The convergence of the two figures is obviously helpful, but it is entirely fortuitous The simulation predicts that pollution will continue to rise for nearly 50 years after 2000 despite the drive towards renewables This is because of delays in im-plementation and because of continuing industrial and population growth But, as one would hope and expect, the pollution level is predicted to drop to a considera-bly lower level from 2030 until 2100, than it would have done in a ‘world’ where the transition were not attempted (BAU scenario) Pollution never gets high enough to deleteriously affect human health and consequently the transition to renewables succeeds in prolonging the delivery of high welfare to a high popula-tion for another generapopula-tion But that is it! In the model ‘world’ the ‘good times’ come to an end in about 2080, just forty more years further into the future than in the BAU scenario Population pressure and demand for consumer goods causes

a continuing rapid growth in industrial output, soaking up mineral and other re-sources, so that by 2070 the costs of extraction become so overwhelming to the rest of the economy that collapse occurs Also, although pollution is lower than in the BAU scenario, it is still enough to have a negative affect on land fertility, and eventually food production cannot match demand from the growing population Human welfare collapses by about 2080

The sad fact is that, in the model ‘world’ of LTG, of the many scenarios, that are postulated and dissected in order to assess possible futures for a resource lim-ited planet, all predict eventual collapse for the global economy No matter what

we do, the end of the ‘good times’ comes before 2100, unless global

over-popula-tion is seriously addressed Of course, this is a model predicover-popula-tion, which is no better that the data supplied to it It should therefore be interpreted with caution

How-146 5 Known Knowns and the Unknown

ever, as far as one can gauge, virtually nowhere in the political firmament, apart from some laudable but almost undetectable exceptions [30, 31], is there any at-tempt being made to engage with the issue of population stabilisation, never mind reduction The Chinese experiment, of limiting families to one child, is generally considered to have been far too draconian! The issue is immensely difficult for the democratic nations of the world because a population policy is a certain vote loser Its formulation would inevitably entail some rather serious dismantling of irra-tional and entrenched human belief systems relating to fertility, contraception, abortion, family size, etc., which cannot be done quickly Unfortunately, time is not on our side, since in the background to all this, is the threat of anthropogenic global warming, which is growing relentlessly If it is not addressed before scien-tifically defined tipping points are breached, and a run-away warming process begins, it is not only the global economy that will collapse, but very likely the human species itself

The unfortunate but unavoidable conclusion is that technology alone, no matter how good, is incapable of providing a cure for a feverish planet We are seemingly paralysed by an inescapable paradox The most successful species on the planet is too successful There are too many of us and we are, as a result, relentlessly de-spoiling the only habitat we will ever have Despite the munificence of the planet

we inhabit, and despite the opportunities presented to mankind through science and engineering, we appear doomed to fail to grasp them Mankind’s tragedy is that notwithstanding all the possibilities that exist to secure the future, we are unlikely to avail ourselves of them, because we seem trapped by history, beliefs, misconceptions and ignorance – a tragedy, which would have been well under-stood by that renowned engineering cynic Edward A Murphy Jr, who coined the tried and tested law (Murphy’s law, sometimes referred to as sod’s law), which states: ‘if anything can go wrong it will’, particularly where human beings are implicated [32] We know this because he is also reputed to have been the source

of the aphorism: ‘If there are two or more ways (for humans) to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe, then catastrophe is inevitable’

It should perhaps be observed that, in fact, in the engineering world at least, Murphy’s laws are by no means infallible They can actually be rendered tooth-less, by the rigid application, to any given problem, of sound knowledge, good understanding, flawless logic, and unremitting rationality

147

Glossary

Ampere (A) Unit of current

Bear Stearns US financial institution

BESS Battery energy storage system

Billion One thousand million (1 × 109)

BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China

Br Bromine

Burns (Robert) Scottish poet (1759–1796)

Bus-bar Metallic (usually copper) high current interconnector BTU British thermal unit (= 1,055 Joules)

CAES Compressed air energy storage

CES Capacitive energy storage

CH4 Chemical formula for methane

Coriolis (force) Inertial force on a moving body caused by the

earth’s rotation

CO2 Chemical formula for carbon dioxide

Coulomb (C) Unit of electrical charge

Dopant Foreign molecules added to a pure crystal (e.g., silicon to

form a semi-conductor)

EC Electrochemical

ECES Electrochemical energy storage

Ecogrid Global electrical power transmission system

148 Glossary

EDL Electric double layer

Electron Negatively charged sub-atomic particle

Farad (F) Unit of capacitance

Fannie Mae US federal national mortgage association (FNMA) FES Flywheel energy storage

Forcing Atmospheric warming over and above natural

solar warming Fossil fuels Carbon based energy sources such as oil, natural gas,

and coal

Freddie Mac US federal home loan mortgage corporation (FHLMC)

g Gravitational acceleration for the Earth (9.81 m/s2) G8 Abbreviated reference to the ‘top’ eight global nations

Great Wall Ancient defensive wall which criss-crosses China Greenhouse gas Mainly carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour Grid Electrical power transmission system

HES Hydrogen energy storage

Henry (H) Unit of inductance

Hertz (Hz) Unit of frequency

(1 Hz = 1 cycle/second) HES Hydrogen energy storage

H2 Chemical formula for hydrogen

H2O Chemical formula for water

HTSC High temperature superconductor

HVDC High voltage direct current

Kelvin (Lord) William Thomson Kelvin (1824–1907) physicist

particu-larly in fields of thermodynamics and electricity

kg Kilogram

Kinetic energy Energy of motion

MES Massive energy storage

Micro (μ) × 10–6

Microwaves Radio frequencies from 1 GHz to 100 GHz

Milli (m) × 10–3

m.k.s or MKS Metre-kilogram-second dimensional system

mm Millimetre

Glossary 149

Murphy (Edward) As in Murphy’s law

Nano (n) × 10–9

Newton (N) Unit of force

NiCad Nickel–cadmium

Nimbyism Not in my back yard (-ism)

NT Non-transport

Ohm ( Ω) Unit of electrical resistance

Pascal (Pa) Unit of pressure

PEM Proton exchange membrane

Period Time occupied by one cycle of a wave

Permian Geological period 280–250 million years ago

PHES Pumped hydro-energy storage

Photon Elementary particle representing the quantum of energy

in light – or any electromagnetic wave Pole Source (north) or sink (south) for magnetic flux

Potential energy Energy of position

Proton Positively charged sub-atomic particle

ppmv Parts per million by volume

PSD Passive solar design

PV Photo-voltaic

Renewables Sources of energy which are essentially inexhaustible as

long as the Sun shines – such as wind

Robben Island Prison island off the west coast of South Africa

Scientific American US Science Magazine

Siemen (S) Unit of electrical conductance

SMES Superconducting magnet energy storage

Sputnik First man-made earth satellite

Tera (T) × 1012

Tesla (T) Unit of magnetic flux density

THES Thermal energy storage

Tipping point A climatic or geological event which introduces positive

feed back into the global warming process Third Reich German regime before and during second world war Thyristor Resistive device whose resistance is dependent on the

direction of flow of the electrical current Tonne (metric ton) = 1000 kg

Triassic Geological period 250–200 million years ago

150 Glossary

Trillion One million million (1 × 1012)

Valve Evacuated electrical device which permits current flow

through it in one direction only

Volt V) Unit of voltage

Watt (W) Unit of power

Wavelength Distance in space occupied by one cycle of a wave Weber (Wb) Unit of magnetic flux

Zn Zinc

ZnBr Zinc–bromine

151

References and Notes

Chapter 1

[1] Stott, P A et al., Human contribution to the European heat wave of 2003 Nature 432:

610–614, Dec 2004

[2] Emanuel, K., Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years Nature

436\4:686–688, Aug 2005

[3] MacCracken, M.C., Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Journal of Air & Waste Management Association, 50:735–786, 2008

This article is a clear and comprehensive summary of the global warming issue, which presents and reviews all of the relevant data A strenuous plea is made for governments to act quickly, with vigour and determination, to engineer an effective strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but the solutions proffered, ranging from efficiency drives, nu-clear build, expansion of solar and wind farms, moves towards a hydrogen economy, carbon capture and replanting of forests, imply that a solution exists within the envelope of global capitalism and the market, and therefore that economic growth and population growth need not be addressed

[4] Lenton, T.M., Climate change to the end of the millennium Climatic Change 76:7–29,

2006

[5] http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/richard_adams/2006

[6] Ascherson, N., How far can we fall The Sunday Herald, UK, 27 July 2008

[7] Meadows, D et al., The Limits to Growth Universe Books, New York, 1972

[8] Athanasiou, T., Slow Reckoning Secker & Warburg, London, 1996

the planet is attributed to the North/South divide, to the gross differences between the rich and poor world These differences are being exacerbated by current obsessions with global-isation and markets The book warns that severe consequences will be experienced if we continue to pursue first world economic strategies to solve global poverty

152 References and Notes

[9] Meadows, D et al., The Limits to Growth: Thirty Year Update Earthscan, UK, 2005

If you are concerned about the planet and the future of mankind, this is essential reading

By marshalling a huge volume of real and hard data, and feeding it into a powerful software model of the global economy, scenarios for both economic collapse and sustainability are presented

[10] International Energy Outlook 2008 – Highlights, Energy Information Administration, June

2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

[11] Scientific American, September 2006

[12] Bartlett, A.A., The Physics Teacher 44:623–624, Dec 2006

[13] Centre for Alternative Technology, Zero Carbon Britain: An alternative energy strategy

10 July 2007

[14] Monbiot, G., Heat Penguin, 2006

[15] Calhoun, J.B., Death squared: the explosive growth and demise of a mouse population

Proc Roy Soc Med 66:80–88, Jan 1973

[16] Brown, L., How food and fuel compete for land The Globalist, Feb 2006

[17] Bell, I., The Saturday Essay The Herald, 26 April 2008

[18] Angel, R Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner

Lagrange point PNAS 103(46):17184–17189, 2006

[19] Budyko, M.I., Climatic Changes American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 1977 [20] Latham, J., Control of global warming Nature 347(27):339–340, 1990

[21] Lovelock, J., Revenge of Gaia Penguin Books, UK, 2006

This book provides an elegant account of the controversial Gaia hypothesis, which views the Earth as a self regulating system, not unlike a living creature This leads to the conclu-sion that if the system is pushed too far by an invasive ‘disease organism’, it may react in forceful and unexpected ways

[22] Romm, J., The Hype about Hydrogen Island Press, Washington DC, 2004

Romm takes a hard look at the so called hydrogen economy and finds that it is largely unachievable This is in a book which is written from a United States perspective Hydrogen has been widely plugged as a major techno-fix solution, being represented as a primary fos-sil fuel replacement in the long-term However, change is considered to be possible only if

it is market sympathetic Consequently, despite dire warnings of the dangers of global warming he sees only very slow advances in the supply of electricity from renewables and envisions a strong road transport sector built around electric vehicles or e-hybrids (Toyota Prius’ which can access mains electricity) long after 2030

[23] Romm, J., Hell and High Water Harper Collins Publishers, New York, 2007

[24] Tickell, O., Kyoto 2: How to Manage the Global Greenhouse Zen Books, London, 2008

The Kyoto protocol, and its influence on green house gas emissions in the years since it was ratified, is put under the ‘spot-light’, with the damning conclusion that it has been little more than ‘window dressing’ Carbon trading schemes emanating from Kyoto have made some people a lot of money, but have certainly not had the desired effect of forcing down emissions More rigorous and hopefully more effective mechanisms, are proposed for

a sequel to Kyoto

References and Notes 153

[25] Flannery, T., The Weather Makers Penguin Books, 2007

This is a clear and very readable exposition of the history, the problems and the conse-quences of climate change The book is comprehensive encompassing as it does, possible causes of global warming, the growing evidence, and possible solutions, both of the techno-fix variety and those requiring societal changes The transport dilemma arising from the lack of an alternative to fossil fuels is addressed, as is the urgent need to procure sustainable electric power

[26] G8, Breaking the Climate Deadlock G8 Report, Japan 2008

[27] Meteorological Office, International Symposium On Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases: Tables of Impacts, Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2003

[28] New Economics Foundation, 100 Months Technical Note, August 2008

http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/sbfxot55p5k3kd454n14zvyy01082008141045 pdf

[29] Institute of Engineering Technology, Electromagnetics – University and Industry Study

2002

[30] RAE, Educating Engineers for the 21st century The Royal Academy of Engineering Re-port, 2007 (ISBN 1-903-496-35-7)

[31] Framing the Engineering Outsourcing Debate: Placing the United States on a Level Playing Field with India and China Duke University, Master of Engineering Program Paper, De-cember 2005

[32] The Engineering Profession Engineering Council Report, November 2000

Chapter 2

[1] Dawkins, R.W., The Selfish Gene Oxford University Press, 1989

[2] For the mathematically inclined:

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