toffler alvin future shock phần 10 pot

Berry in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, December, 1967, p... Qualitative and Quantitative Definition of the Life Crisisand its Association with Health Change; II.. See

278 Trends in the magazine industry are discussed in The New York Times, April 17, 1966, April

27, 1969; The Wall Street Journal, August 18, 1964; and in "Aiming at the Hip" in Time, June

2, 1967 See also: "Fat Days for the 'How-To' Publishers," Business Week, July 30, 1966; and

"City Magazines are the Talk of the Town," Business Week, February 18, 1967.

279 On underground press, see "Admen Groove on Underground," in Business Week, April 12,

1969

280 Moosmann is quoted from interview with the author

282 For Naughton, see "Goodbye to Gutenberg" in Newsweek, January 24, 1966; Japanese

developments are reported in The Times (London), December 12, 1969.

CHAPTER THIRTEEN

288 On surfers, see Nadeau [231], p 144 and "Is J J Really King of the Surf" by Jordan Bonfante

in Life, June 10, 1966, p 81.

289 For a colorful account of life among the sky-divers, see "Death-Defying Sports of the Sixties"

by Mario Puzo in Cavalier, December, 1965, p 19.

289 Data on the decline of the society's overall commitment to work are to be found in [74], pp

13-14

290 Pynchon:[235]

290 Sheckley's story is found in [237]

291 Age segregation is discussed in "The Youth Ghetto" by John Lofland in the Journal of Higher

Education, March, 1968, pp 126-139.

292 James W Carey's remarks are from his paper, "Harold Adams Innis and Marshall McLuhan,"

given at the Association for Education in Journalism Convention, Iowa City, Iowa, August28-September 3, 1966

293 Post-marital tribalism is examined in "The World of the Formerly Married" by Morton M

Hunt in McCall's, August, 1966.

295 The best short account of the origins and early development of the hippie movement is found

in "A Social History of the Hippies" by Warren Hinckle in Ramparts, March, 1967, p 5 See

also: [223], pp 63-68

295 On distinctions among hippie-like subcults, see "Tell It Like It Really Is " by David Andrew

Seeley, Center Diary, May-June, 1967.

296 The death of the hippie movement is reported in "Love is Dead" by Earl Shorris in The New

York Times Magazine, October 29, 1967, p 27.

297 For an early description of the skinhead phenomenon, see "Hippies vs Skinheads,"

Newsweek, October 6, 1969, p 90.

297 Material on street gangs: [240]; [114], p 20; and "Violence" by James Q Wilson in [179],

vol 4, p 7

299 Gardner on conformity is from [39], pp 62-63

299 Material on the Temne people is from "Independence and Conformity in Subsistence-Level

Societies" by J W Berry in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, December,

1967, p 417

CHAPTER FOURTEEN

304 The loss of consensus is discussed in "Anything Goes: Taboos in Twilight" by Paul D.

Zimmerman in Newsweek, November 13, 1967, p 74.

305 Gruen reports his work in "Composition and Some Correlates of the American Core Culture"

in Psychological Reports, vol 18, pp 483-486 Material is drawn from this source and from

an interview

305 The life style of the English gentleman is examined in [215], p 138

308 Klapp is quoted from [228], pp 37-38

308 On the West Side Intellectual subcult, see [234]

308 For the role of life style models, see "The New Heroes" by John Speicher in Cheetah,

November, 1967, pp 27-28

309 Ginsberg's letter is from "In the beginning, Leary turned on Ginsberg and saw that it was

good " by Timothy Leary in Esquire, July, 1968, p 87.

314 On the pressure of overchoice: The adoption of a style also relates to the conquest of

unpredictability in the society As the level of novelty around us rises, we become moreuncertain of the behavior of other individuals, leading to a withdrawal of commitment, a fear

of self-revelation or deep feelings When young people don outlandish costumes, thrift-storegowns and kooky hats, they touch off a subtle fear among the "straights" in society becausethey announce, by their clothing, that their behavior is likely to be unpredictable The strength

of their attachment to their own subculture, at the same time, derives from the fact that withinthe group, unpredictability is reduced They can make better predictions about the behavior oftheir peers and subcult colleagues than about the outside world Adoption of a life style andthe affiliation with a subcult can be seen as efforts to lower the level of novelty orunpredictability in the microenvironment

321 Mannheim is quoted from [189], p 46

321 The Gross quote is from "The State of the Nation: Social Systems Accounting" by Bertram

M Gross in [313], p 198

CHAPTER FIFTEEN

327 The "human ecology" approach to medicine is discussed in "The Doctor, His Patient, and the

Environment" by Lawrence E Hinkle, Jr., in The American Journal of Public Health,

January, 1964, p 11

328 Material on life changes research is based partially on interviews with Dr Thomas H Holmes

of the University of Washington School of Medicine; and Dr Ransom J Arthur and E K.Eric Gunderson of the U.S Navy Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit, San Diego

See the following papers in the Journal of Psychosomatic Research:

"A Longitudinal Study of Life-Change and Illness Patterns" by Richard H Rahe, Joseph D.McKean, Jr., and Ransom J Arthur vol 10, 1967, pp 355-366

"The Social Readjustment Rating Scale" by Thomas H Holmes and Richard H Rahe vol 11,

1967, pp 213-218

"Magnitude Estimations of Social Readjustments" by Minoru Masuda and Thomas H.Holmes Vol 11, 1967, pp 219-225

"The Social Readjustment Rating Scale: A Cross-Cultural Study of Japanese and Americans"

by Minoru Masuda and Thomas H Holmes vol 11, 1967, pp 227-237

"Quantitative Study of Recall of Life Events" by Robert L Casey, Minoru Masuda, andThomas H Holmes vol 11, 1967, pp 239-247.

"Seriousness of Illness Rating Scale" by Allen R Wyler, Minoru Masuda and Thomas H.Holmes vol 11, 1968, pp 363-374

and:

"Social and Environmental Factors in Illness Behavior" by E K Eric Gunderson, Richard H.Rahe, and Ransom J Arthur Paper presented to the Annual Meetings of the WesternPsychological Association, San Diego, California, March, 1968

"Life Crisis and Disease Onset—I Qualitative and Quantitative Definition of the Life Crisisand its Association with Health Change; II A Prospective Study of Life Crises and HealthChanges," by Richard H Rahe and Thomas H Holmes (Mimeo) Department of Psychiatry,University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington

The general pattern discovered in these studies is supported by the findings of George Brownand J L T Birley of the Social Psychiatry Unit, Maudsley Hospital, London Brown andBirley studied cases of schizophrenic relapse and correlated them with life change histories

See: Journal of Health and Social Behavior, vol 9, ¶3 (1968), p 263.

333 The death rate of spouses is studied in "The Mortality of Widowers" by Michael Young,

Bernard Benjamin and Chris Wallis, in Lancet, August 31, 1963, pp 454-456.

334 For a brief but comprehensive treatment of the orientation response, see [21]

"Neuronal Model of the Stimulus: I The Formation of a Neuronal Model by Repeated

Representation of the Stimulus," by E N Sokolov in Rep Acad Pedagog Sc., USSR (1959),

pp 93-96 (in Russian)

335 Lubin is quoted from an interview with the author

338 No discussion of the adaptive reaction and stress can overlook Dr Hans Selye whose work

laid the basis for much of the research conducted in recent years His book [26] has become aclassic

A brief section on ACTH and its relation to stress appears in [10], p 306 See also [12], pp.330-334

339 Levi's work is discussed in [20]; in "Life Stress and Urinary Excretion of Adrenaline and

Noradrenaline" by Lennart Levi in [24]; and in "Conditions of Work and Their Influence onPsychological and Endocrine Stress Reactions" by J Froberg, C Karlsson, L Levi, L.Lidberg and K Seeman, Report #8, The Laboratory for Clinical Stress Research, KarolinskaSjukhuset, Stockholm, October, 1969

340 Dubos is quoted from his speech at the Nobel Conference, Gustavus Adolphus College, 1966,

entitled "Adaptation to the Environment and Man's Future."

340 Selye is quoted from [26], p 176

341 Data on the effects of crowding will be found in [343] See also "Population Density and

Social Pathology" by John B Calhoun in [241]; and The New York Times, December 28,

1966

341 Hinkle's studies are reported in his paper, "Studies of Human Ecology in Relation to Health

and Behavior," BioScience, August, 1965, pp 517-520.

342 Selye: [26], p vii

CHAPTER SIXTEEN

343 The limits of the nervous system are discussed in "Curiosity and Exploration," by D E

Berlyne, Science, July 1, 1966, p 26.

See also a highly significant paper by Bruce L Welch entitled "PsychophysiologicalResponse to the Mean Level of Environmental Stimulation: A Theory of EnvironmentalIntegration." It appears in [32] Welch posits a general level of stimulation which he terms theMLES (Mean Level of Environmental Stimulation) and shows how fluctuations in this levelcan produce distinct physiological and behavioral changes in men and animals

The effects of understimulation are examined in "Adaptation of Small Groups to Extreme

Environments," by E K Eric Gunderson and Paul D Nelson, Aerospace Medicine,

December, 1963, p 1114

Also:

"Biographical Predictors of Performance in an Extreme Environment," by E K Eric

Gunderson and Paul D Nelson in the Journal of Psychology, 1965, #61, pp 59-67.

"Emotional Health in Extreme and Normal Environments," by E K Eric Gunderson Paperpresented at the International Congress on Occupational Health, Vienna, September 19-24,1966

"Performance Evaluations of Antarctic Volunteers," by E K Eric Gunderson, Report #64-19,

US Navy Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit, San Diego, Calif

344 The case of the Chindit soldier is described in the Daily Telegraph, (London) August 30,

1966

345 The Normandy research is reported in "Combat Neurosis Development of Combat

Exhaustion" by R L Swank and E Marchand in the Archives of Neurology and Psychiatry,

LV, 236; 1946 An earlier report is to be found in "Chronic Symptomatology of Combat

Neurosis" by R L Swank and B Cohen in War Medicine, VIII, 143; 1945.

345 Swank is quoted in [25], pp 38-39

346 The Waco disaster is described in [23], p 311

346 The Udall case is covered in [16] For a more general study of disaster behavior, see [54]

347 On culture shock: see "Personality Determinants and Assessment," by Sven Lundstedt,

Journal of Social Issues, July, 1963, p 3.

348 Sensory deprivation experiments are described in "Sensory and Perceptual Deprivation" by

Thomas I Myers in [32]

Also:

"Effects of Experiential Deprivation Upon Behavior in Animals," by John L Fuller, paperpresented at Third World Congress of Psychiatry, Montreal, 1961 A shorter version will befound in [31]

"Emotional Symptoms in Extremely Isolated Groups," by E K Eric Gunderson, Archives of General Psychiatry, October, 1963, pp 362-368.

"Summary of Research in Sensory Deprivation and Social Isolation," by Howard H McFann,

NATO Symposium on Defense Psychology, August, 1961.

350 Neural transmission rates are given in "Biological Models and Empirical Histories of the

Growth of Organizations" by Mason Haire in [37], p 375 and in [279], p 107

350 A lucid introduction to information theory is found in "Coping with Administrators'

Information Overload" by James G Miller, Mental Health Research Institute, University ofMichigan Paper delivered at the First Institute on Medical School Administration,Association of American Medical Colleges in Atlanta, Georgia, October, 1963

351 Limitations on information processing capacity in humans are discussed in [22], pp 41-42

352 The breakdown of worker performance is described in [6], pp 47-53

Also:

"Automation: Some underlying Psychological Processes," by E D Poulton, Transactions

(Journal of the Association of Industrial Medical Officers) 15 (3) 96-99, 1965

The mental rather than muscular limitations are noted in "Components of Skilled

Performance" by Michael I Posner, Science, June 24, 1966, pp 1712-1718.

353 Information glut is discussed in "A Theoretical Review of Individual and Group

Psychological Reactions to Stress" by James G Miller in Grosser et al., [14], p 14.

353 The possible relationship of overload to mental illness is examined in Disorders of

Communication, vol XLII, Research Publications, Association for Research in Nervous and

Mental Disease, 1964, pp 98-99

Also: "Schizophrenic-like Responses in Normal Subjects Under Time Pressure" by G

Usdansky and L J Chapman, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 60, pp 143-146,

1960

356 The Gross quote is from his paper, "The State of the Nation: Social Systems Accounting" in

[313], p 250

358 Reaction time is discussed in "Information Processing in the Nervous System" by D E

Broadbent, Science, October 22, 1965, p 460.

358 For an insightful discussion of the modes of organizational response to overload conditions,

see "Information Input Overload: Features of Growth in Communications-OrientedInstitutions" by Richard L Meier in [41], pp 233-273

Also:

"Some Sociological Aspects of Message Load" by Lindsey Churchill in [41], pp 274-284.The strategies of denial, specialization, reversion and super-simplification are analogues ofsome familiar organizational responses discussed in these papers

363 For "paradoxical phase" see [25], pp 30-32, 44

363 Violence as a response to stress is discussed in "Violence and Man's Struggle to Adapt," by

Marshall F Gilula and David N Daniels, Science, April 25, 1969, p 404.

363 Japan Times, July 3, 1966.

364 The story of the Crete cop-outs is told in "Crete: A Stop in the New Odyssey," by Thomas

Thompson, Life, July 19, 1968, p 23.

365 The nervous breakdown analogy is from "Has This Country Gone Mad?" by Daniel P

Moynihan, Saturday Evening Post, May 4, 1968, p 13.

366 The Bierl quote is from the Thompson story in Life, July 19, 1968, p 28.

A Note on Understimulation:

The emphasis in this chapter has been on the problems of overstimulation What is striking toanyone who reads through the scientific literature is the similarity of human response to both

high and low stimulation Apparently, when men are pushed either above or below the

adaptive range, they exhibit some of the same symptoms of distress Thus psychologists haverecently completed extensive studies of the men who live in the seven US outposts inAntarctica The most inhospitable environment inhabited by man, Antarctica subjects thesemen to enforced monotony and understimulation The Amundsen-Scott station at the SouthPole is literally isolated from the rest of the world, except for sporadic radio communications,for ten months of the year Temperatures plummet to as low as -100° (F) and the winds thatsweep across the ice sometimes reach velocities of 100 mph In all these outposts smallgroups of men are compelled to live indoors, in extremely close quarters, for protractedperiods Life inside these stations is probably as "changeless" as in any social environment inwhich modern men find themselves

According to E K Eric Gunderson and Paul D Nelson, in the studies noted above, "Underconditions of restricted stimulation and activity for prolonged periods, participants reported

an increase in the incidence and severity of emotional and somatic symptoms, particularly onitems reflecting sleep disturbances, depression, irritability, and anxiety." The men felt leadenand fatigued Some suffered loneliness and depression Many exhibited extremely shorttempers, flaring easily into anger

The chronicles of polar explorers confirm the picture of psychological distress There arerepeated references to "polar ennui" and frequent symptoms of withdrawal and deadly apathy.Admiral Byrd, for example, after five months of total isolation at a remote weather station,suffered a behavior breakdown whose effects lasted for months afterward In his diary, Byrdwrote: "Mornings it's a tough job to drive myself out of the sleeping bag I feel as if I hadbeen drugged But I tell myself, over and over again, that if I give in—if I let this stupor claimme—I may never awake Why bother? Why not let things drift? That is the direction of

everlasting peace So why resist?" (Byrd, R E., Alone, New York: Putnam, 1938.)

Significantly, one of the worst punishments known to man is solitary confinement—asituation in which the individual is not only cut off from the stimulation of social interaction,but deprived of change and novelty of any kind For this reason, it is employed byinterrogators and psychologists to "soften up" prisoners whom they wish to brainwash

It was, in fact, the successful brainwashing of captured American troops by the Red Chineseand North Koreans during the Korean conflict that spurred research into "sensorydeprivation."

The psychologist D O Hebb, a pioneer in this field, found that monotonous sensorystimulation produces confusion—a disruption of the ability to think clearly His associates,Heron, Scott, Bexton and Doane, confirmed that stimuli-deprived subjects had difficultyconcentrating The volunteers reported anxiety, somatic complaints, occasionalhallucinations, and difficulty in judging the passage of time

Myers, a US Navy researcher, summarized a decade of sensory deprivation research: "Mostsubjects find sensory isolation difficult to endure, are tempted to withdrawal, and have littleappetite to repeat the experience Subjects have unusual and compelling reactions Theyexperience severe tedium, restlessness, anxiety, difficulty in mental concentration, blurring ofthe boundaries of sleeping and waking activities and of reality Performance on intellectualtasks tends to decline " In a word, according to Myers, "Sensory deprivation apparentlyincreases the desire for informative stimulation, though not necessarily the desire forrelatively redundant and meaningless stimulation." ("Sensory and Perceptual Deprivation" byThomas I Myers in [32])

Moving out of the laboratory, we find that certain employees in advanced automated plantsfrequently exhibit similar symptoms of understimulation These workers are compelled tospend many hours alone in control booths scanning a variety of dials and screens for signs of

equipment breakdown But while there are many signals for them to monitor, the signals are,

by and large, repetitive and predictable Only rarely is there an "abnormal" or novel signal.When novelty is too low, the worker's alertness fades and he increasingly misses or fails toreport abnormalities Boredom sets in, and his very self-confidence evaporates He begins todoubt his own ability to distinguish between normal and abnormal signals (See [6])

There is convincing evidence, moreover, that when deprived of the necessary stimulation wewill take action to create it Like the laboratory monkey who pushes a lever hundreds of timesper hour for no reward other than the opportunity to look out a window, man exhibits a deep-seated hunger for novelty when his environment becomes too changeless He attempts to alterhis surroundings, to create change, thereby bringing the level of stimulation back into the

"adaptive range."

So strong is man's need to stay within the adaptive range that internal mechanisms sometimestake over when the external environment fails to provide the needed excitement Recentscientific research suggests that dreaming is a way of boosting the level of arousal of the brainand body at a time when they are largely cut off from needed external stimuli Somethinganalogous to dreaming seems to occur even in unborn babies Indeed, the "rapid eyemovements" associated with dreaming occur more frequently in young children than inadults, and even more frequently in the foetus

This suggests that within the womb, the least externally stimulating environment of all,internal stimulation keeps the brain, the neutral network and the endocrine systems in action.Later, as the baby develops into an adult, as levels of external stimulation rise, and as theindividual develops greater control over his external environment, dreaming and rapid eyemovements tend to fall off in frequency

To sum up: when the level of environmental stimulation or change falls below a certain point,the individual is forced below his adaptive range, he suffers distinct distress and takes action

to increase the level of stimulation When the level of environmental stimulation forces himabove his adaptive range, he exhibits many of the same symptoms—anxiety, confusion,irritability, and eventual apathy In this situation, as we see in Chapter 17, the individualstrives to reduce stimulation In short, all of us, from before the instant of birth to our verydeathbed, wage a continuing, sometimes desperate, sometimes quite creative struggle to keepthe level of stimulation from pushing us above or below our adaptive range

CHAPTER SEVENTEEN

371 The Manus story is told in [44], p 415

374 Selye references are from [26], pp 265, 269

382 Fuller is quoted from interview with the author

383 The 100,000 figure is extrapolated from Population Characteristics, U.S Department of

Commerce, August 14, 1969, Series P-20, #188, p 161

384 Situational grouping material was developed in interviews with Gerjuoy

387 For a discussion of crisis intervention, see "Crisis: A Review of Theory, Practice and

Research" by Allen Darbonne in International Journal of Psychiatry, November, 1968, p.

372

388 The reference to half-way houses in the penal field is from "Correctional Institutions in a

Great Society" by Daniel Glaser in Excerpta Criminologica, 3 (2/3) -3-6, 1965.

388 An analogous proposal for adapting slum dwellers to new housing has been made by

Margaret Mead See Chicago Sun-Times, November 2, 1966.

389 Khartoum: based on author's interview with Doxiadis.

393 Gardner on continuity is from [39], p 6

394 Kimball is quoted from his introduction to [50], p xvii

394 Coon's remark is from his paper, "Growth and Development of Social Groups" in [177], p

124

394 Data on Christmas cards are based on Preliminary 1967 Census of Manufactures Industry

Series—Greeting card publishers MC-67 (P-27C-1) US Department of Commerce

394 Family ritual is examined in [5], p 32

CHAPTER EIGHTEEN

401 Dewey and Hutchins are quoted in [112], the dedication and p 70

401 The Barzun reference is from [101], p 125

402 The significance of the clock is explored in "The Monastery and the Clock" by Lewis

Mumford in [293], p 61 See also the excellent paper entitled "Time, Work-Discipline, and

Industrial Capitalism" by E P Thompson in Past and Present, December, 1967, pp 56-97.

403 Snow is quoted from [306], p 12

406 For a description of McDonald's proposal see "Beyond the Schoolhouse" by Frederick J

McDonald in [115], p 230

406 On the proposed school in Bedford-Stuyvesant, see: "A College in the City: An Alternative"

report issued by Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., March, 1969

407 Howe's suggestions are in his paper, "This City as Teacher" in [115], p 22

414 Gerjuoy's comments are from an interview with the author

415 McKuen is quoted [230], p 60

418 For Bowen quote, see [6], p 52

419 The development of future perspectives is examined in "Changes in Outlook on the Future

Between Childhood and Adolescence" by Stephen L Klineberg in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol 7, #2, 1967, p 192.

420 For Warner on time, see [350], pp 54-55; Jaques is cited in [260], pp 231-233 See also "A

Note on Time-span and Economic Theory" by J M M Hill in Human Relations, vol XI, #4,

p 373

421 The future as an organizing principle is studied in "The Future-Focused Role Image," an

unpublished paper by Benjamin D Singer, Department of Sociology, University of WesternOntario

422 The comment on the lack of future perspective in the curriculum is from "Teaching the

Future" by Ossip K Flechtheim in The Futurist, February, 1968, p 7.

422 Description of the Condry experiment is based on an interview With the experimenter and/or

test materials Publication planned by Professor Condry See also: "Time and Social Class" byLawrence L Le Shan in [339]

424 The quote from Jungk is from his paper, "Technological Forecasting as a Tool of Social

Strategy" in Analysen und Prognosen, January, 1989, p 12.

425-26 For a fascinating account of experiments With future autobiographies of mental patients, see

[345]

CHAPTER NINETEEN

429 Material on effects of technology is partially drawn from [332] See also: "Man's

Deteriorating Environment" by Julian Huxley and Max Nicholson in The Times (London),

October 7, 1969

430 Commoner quote is from "Attitudes Toward the Environment: A Nearly Fatal Solution."

Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement ofScience, Dallas, Texas, December, 1968

See also: The New York Times, December 29, 1968.

430 For additional material on technological impacts, see [329] and The New York Times for

March 31, April 15, and April 27, 1969

430 The research moratorium is described in The New York Times, March 5, 1969.

430 Evidences of British concern are found in "Britain: Scientists Form New Group to Promote

Social Responsibility" by D S Greenberg, Science, May 23, 1969, p 931 For a report on international efforts, see "Of Muck and Men," Economist, December 20, 1969, p 15.

430 Attitudes of the youth movement toward technocracy are discussed in "Altering the Direction

of Technology" by Robert Jungk in Student World, #3, 1968 Geneva: World Student

Christian Federation, p 224

431 Research and development figures are from [169], p 24

431 Lapp is quoted from [290], p 29

432 Lack of science policy is charged in OECD report [335]; see also The New York Times,

January 13, 1968

433 Technological likelihoods are discussed in [159], pp 51-52

434 OLIVER's potentials are explored in "Computer as a Communications Device" by J C R

Licklider and Robert W Taylor in Science and Technology, April, 1968, p 31.

435 For discussions of the supersonic transport, see "The SST and the Government: Critics Shout

into a Vacuum," Science, September 8, 1967, and "Sonic Booms from Supersonic Transport"

by Karl D Kryter, Science, January 24, 1969.

436 The proposal for an artificial ocean in Brazil is described in "A Wild Plan for South America's

Wilds" by Tom Alexander in Fortune, December, 1967, p 148.

439 On forecasting value change, see "Value Impact Forecaster—A Profession of the Future" by

Alvin Toffler in [131]

440-41 Scientists' resistance to regulation is commented on in "Change and Adaptation" by Amitai

Etzioni in Science, December, 1966, p 1533.

441 The case for the regulation of technology is argued in "The Control of Technology" by O M

Solandt in Science, August 1, 1969 See also a thoughtful discussion of policy problems in

science and technology in [333] and a short statement by the leading Congressional advocate

of technological assessment in [314]

443 For detailed theoretical and historical studies of the problems of technological assessment, see

the papers of Mayo, [323], [324], and [325] See also: "Early Experiences With the Hazards

of Medical Use of X-rays: 1896-1906" by Barbara Spencer Marx Staff Discussion Paper 205.Program of Policy Studies in Science and Technology Washington: George WashingtonUniversity

On the need for technological policy, see [290], p 220

CHAPTER TWENTY

446-47 Urbanologist Scott Greer is quoted from "Urban Environment: General" by Daniel P.

Moynihan in [313], p 497

447 Author's interview with Raymond Fletcher

447 Vickers is quoted from "Ecology, Planning and the American Dream" by Sir Geoffrey

Vickers in [241], p 374-395

448 For Harrington's argument see [318]

448 Galbraith's position is elaborated in [82]

450 The Woodstock participant is quoted from The New York Times, August 25, 1969.

453 Information on the funds is from "Playboy's Guide to Mutual Funds" by Michael Laurence in

Playboy, June, 1969, p 152 The non-economic interests of mutual funds are discussed in

"The Funds of the Future: 2000 A.D." by Alvin Toffler, Channing Balanced Fund AnnualReport, New York, 1969, p 6

453 Ford's "program related investment" program is described in "New Options in the

Philanthropic Process," Ford Foundation Statement of policy, New York: Ford Foundation,

1968 See also: "New Agency Lends First Million to Aid Ghetto Businesses" by Vic Jameson

in Presbyterian Life, reprint dated 1968; and mimeographed "PEDCO Guidelines for Loan

Approval" issued by Presbyterian Economic Development Corp

455 Udall is cited in "The Idea of a Social Report" by Daniel Bell in the Public Interest, Spring,

1969, p 81

455 Gross' quote is from his Preface to [313], p ix

455 The social indicators movement is one of the most significant forces in the social and

behavioral sciences today Yet, the literature is still small enough to be manageable Fivebasic works are: [313], [317], [327], [330], [337]

461 Ogburn is cited from a longer discussion of prediction in [47], p 304

461 MacRae's remark is from his chapter, "The Crisis of Sociology" in [298]

462 For a valuable, though already dated listing and evaluation of forecasting methodologies, see

[157]

Delphi is described in [155]

A short, useful introduction to Cross Impact work appears as "Initial Experiments with the

Cross Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting" by T J Gordon and H Hayward in Futures,

December, 1968, pp 100-116

465 Christoph Bertram is quoted from his paper, "Models of Western Europe in the 1970's—the

Alternative Choices" in Futures, December, 1968, p 143.

472 For the report of President Eisenhower's goals commission, see [331] The quotation is from

p xi

472-73 Nixon: from Statement by the President on the Establishment of a National Goals Research

Staff, White House Press Release, July 13, 1969.

474 "The Politics and Vision of the New Left" by Todd Gitlin, Radical Education Project, San

Francisco (mimeo) pp 2, 5

476 "The Application of Cybernetics to Psychiatry" by W Ross Ashby in [48], p 376; see also

[1]

481 Osgood's Project PLATO is noted in "Report of Developments since the Conference of

Overseas Sponsors held in London in November, 1965," Mankind 2000, London: PreparatoryInternational Secretariat, August, 1966, p 2; a further report appears in "Involving the Public

in Futures" in Futures, September, 1968, p 69.

481-82 The televised games are mentioned in Education Daily, April 25, 1969.

Since articles, scientific and scholarly papers, and specialized reports are fully described in the accompanying Notes, this listing is limited to books and to a small number of monographs and proceedings I have grouped the entries under a few headings These are not intended to indicate the main subject matter of the work, but the context in which I found it of interest.

ADAPTATION / Individual

[1] Ashby, W Ross, Design for a Brain (London: Chapman and Hall, 1952.)

[2] Beer, Stafford, Cybernetics and Management (New York: John Wiley, 1964.)

[3] Berlyne, D E., Conflict, Arousal and Curiosity (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1960.)

[4] Bettelheim, Bruno, The Informed Heart (Glencoe, Ill.: The Free Press, 1960.)

[5] Bossard, James H S., and Boll, Eleanor S., Ritual in Family Living (Philadelphia: University

of Pennsylvania Press, 1950.)

[6] Bowen, Hugh M., Rational Design Reprint of seven articles from Industrial Design,

February-August, 1964 (Distributed by Dunlap and Associates, Darien, Conn.)

[7] Dance, Frank E X., (ed.), Human Communication Theory (New York: Holt, Rinehart and

Winston, 1967.)

[8] Dubos, René, Man Adapting (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1965.)

[9] Dunlop, John T., Automation and Technological Change (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:

Prentice-Hall, 1962.)

[10] Ganong, William F., Review of Medical Physiology (Los Altos, California: Lange Medical

Publications, 1967.)

[11] Glass, David C., (ed.), Environmental Influences (New York: Rockefeller University Press and

Russell Sage Foundation, 1968.)

[12] Goreman, Aubrey, and Bern, Howard A., A Textbook of Comparative Endocrinology (New

York: John Wiley, 1962.)

[13] Grinker, Roy R., and Spiegel, John P., Men Under Stress (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1945.) [14] Grosser, George M., Wechsler, Henry, and Greenblatt, Milton, (eds.), The Threat of Impending Disaster (Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press, 1964.)

[15] Gurin, Gerald, Veroff, Joseph, and Feld, Sheila, Americans View Their Mental Health (New

York: Basic Books, 1960.)

[16] Hamilton, R V., Taylor, R M., and Rice, G E., Jr., A Social Psychological Interpretation of the Udall, Kansas, Tornado (Washington: National Academy of Sciences-National Research

Council, 1955.)

[17] Hollingshead, August B., and Redlich, Frederick C., Social Class and Mental Illness (New

York: John Wiley, 1964.)

[18] James, William, The Principles of Psychology (New York: Dover, 1958.) (2 vols.)

[19] Lee, Alfred McClung, Multi-Valent Man (New York: George Braziller, 1966.)

[20] Levi, Lennart, Stress (New York: Liveright, 1967.)

[21] Lynn, R., Attention, Arousal and the Orientation Reaction (Oxford: Pergamon, 1966.)

[22] Miller, George A., The Psychology of Communication (New York: Basic Books, 1967.)

[23] Moore, H E., Tornadoes Over Texas (Austin, Texas: University of Texas Press, 1958.)

[24] Raab, Wilhelm, Prevention of Ischemic Heart Disease: Principles and Practice (Springfield,

Ill.: Chas C Thomas, 1966.)

[25] Sargant, William, Battle for the Mind (London: Pan Books, 1963.)

[26] Selye, Hans, The Stress of Life (New York: McGrawHill, 1956.)

[27] Skinner, B F., Science and Human Behavior (New York: The Free Press 1953.)

[28] Vernon, Jack, Inside the Black Room (New York: Clarkson N Potter, 1963.)

[29] Vickers, Sir Geoffrey, The Art of Judgment (New York: Basic Books, 1965.)

[30] Wooldridge, Dean E., The Machinery of the Brain (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1963.)

[31] —, Proceedings of the Third World Congress of Psychiatry (Toronto: Toronto University

Press, 1964.)

[32] —, Symposium on Medical Aspects of Stress in the Military Climate (Washington: Walter

Reed Army Institute of Research, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, 1964.)

[33] —, Symposium on Preventive and Social Psychiatry (Washington: Walter Reed Army Institute

of Research, Walter Reed Medical Center, 1957.)

ADAPTATION / Social

[34] Bloch, Herbert A., Disorganization (New York: Alfred A Knopf, 1952.)

[35] Demerath, N J., and Peterson, Richard A., (eds.), System, Change and Conflict (New York:

The Free Press, 1967.)

[36] De Vries, Egbert, Man in Rapid Social Change (New York: Doubleday, 1961.)

[37] Etzioni, Amitai and Eva, (eds.), Social Change (New York: Basic Books, 1964.)

[38] Frank, Lawrence K., Society as the Patient (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press,

1948.)

[39] Gardner, John, Self-Renewal (Evanston, Ill.: Harper, 1963.)

[40] Lerner, Daniel, The Passing of Traditional Society (New York: The Free Press, 1958.)

[41] Massarik, Fred, and Ratoosh, Philburn, (eds.), Mathematical Explorations in Behavioral Science (Homewood, Ill.: Richard D Irwin and Dorsey Press, 1965.

[42] Mead, Margaret, Continuities in Cultural Evolution (New Haven: Yale University Press;

1964.)

[43] Mead, Margaret, (ed.), Cultural Patterns and Technical Change (New York: New American

Library, 1955.)

[44] Mead, Margaret, New Lives for Old (New York: New American Library, 1956.)

[45] Meier, Richard L., Developmental Planning (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965.)

[46] Moore, Wilbert E., Social Change (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1964.)

[47] Ogburn, William F., On Culture and Social Change: Selected Papers (Chicago: University of

Chicago Press, 1964.)

[48] Smith, Alfred G., (ed.), Communications and Culture (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston,

1966.)

[49] Touraine, Alain, Durand, Claude, Pecaut, Daniel, and Willener, Alfred, Workers' Attitudes to Technical Change (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 1965.) (Summary version entitled Acceptance and Resistance.)

[50] Van Gennep, Arnold, The Rites of Passage (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960.) [51] Wingo, Lowdon, Jr., (ed.), Cities and Space (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1963.)

[52] —, Africa: Social Change and Mental Health (London: World Federation for Mental Health,

1959.)

[53] —, Mental Health Aspects of Urbanization (London: World Federation for Mental Health,

1957.)

[54] —, Training Requirements for Postattack Adaptive Behavior (Report for US Office of Civil

Defense, prepared by Dunlap and Associates, Darien, Conn., December, 1965.)

[55] —, Urban America and the Planning of Mental Health Services (Philadelphia: Group for the

Advancement of Psychiatry, vol V, Symposium No 10, November, 1964.)

AUTOMATION

[56] Bagrit, Leon, The Age of Automation (New York: New American Library, 1965.)

[57] Diebold, John, Beyond Automation (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964.)

[58] Friedmann, Georges, Industrial Society (Glencoe, Ill.: The Free Press, 1955.)

[59] Greenberger, Martin, (ed.), Computers and the World of the Future (Cambridge, Mass.: The

MIT Press, 1962.)

[60] Henderson, Mary Stephens-Caldwell, Managerial Innovations of John Diebold (Washington:

The LeBaron Foundation, 1965.)

[61] Michael, Donald N., Cybernation: The Silent Conquest (Santa Barbara, Calif.: Center for the

Study of Democratic Institutions, 1962.)

[62] Simon, Herbert A., The Shape of Automation for Men and Management (New York: Harper &

Row, 1965.)

[63] Theobald, Robert, The Challenge of Abundance (New York: New American Library, 1961.) [64] —, Technology and the American Economy (Report of the Commission on Technology,

Automation and Economic Progress, Vol 1, February, 1966.)

BUSINESS / ECONOMICS / CONSUMER PATTERNS

[65] Adams, Charles F., Common Sense in Advertising (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965.)

[66] Anshen, Melvin, and Bach, George Leland, (eds.), Management and Corporations, 1985 (New

York: McGraw-Hill, 1960.)

[67] Backman, Julius, Advertising and Competition (New York: New York University Press, 1967.) [68] Baird, Mary K., International Consumer Expenditure Patterns (Report No 196) (Menlo Park,

Calif.: Stanford Research Institute, December, 1963.)

[69] Barish, Norman, and Verhulst, Michel, Management Sciences in the Emerging Countries.

(Oxford: England-Alden Press, 1965.)

[70] Berle, Adolf A., Jr., Power without Property (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1959.)