Luận văn retail bank key metrics and stock performance

Practical applicabilily, i any: Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL

GRADUATION PROJECT

RETAIL BANK INDUSTRY:

KEY METRICS AND STOCK PERFORMANCE

Phing Minh Son

Llanoi - 2020

KEY METRICS AND STOCK PERFORMACE

SUPERVISOR: Dr 1 Bite Thith STUDENT: Phing Minh Son

CODF: 16071237 COHORT: AC2016C MAJOR: Accounting, Analyzing and Auditing

Hanoi - 2020

INFORMATION ON FINAL THESIS

1 Full name: Phimg Minh Sơn 2 Gender Male

3 Date of birth: August 5 1998 4 Place of birth: Ha Noi

$ Official thesis

lille: Retail bank industry: Key metrics and stock performance

6 Major: Accounting, Analyzing aud Auditing

7, Code: 16071237

8 Guider Teclawer: Dĩ, Tê Đức Thịnh

9, Summary of the findings of the thesis:

The study analyze the correlation and p-value between seven key metrics and

tolal shareholders’ return, the results indicate that Net Loan and Tease lo Deposit has

more significant linear relationship with ISR 2 which is calculated according to

published date of annmal report Moreover, NIVAA, NLL/A, NLL/D, Growth rate of

Tolal Asscl and ROA have significant mpact on stock performance valculaled according to fiscal year The result of significant linear relationship of metrics on TSR

1 is more than the results on TSR 2

This study also uses the Regression models which use ROE as a dependent

variable and 6 metrics as independent variables which are NAA, NLL/A, NLL/D,

Growth rale of NLL, Growth rate of EPS and Pre-tax Profil Margin The results show

that Net Loan and Lease to Deposit and Pre-tax Profit Margin have very high

probabilities of appearing in any repression models Pre-tax Profit Margin has a positive linear relationship with Net Income/Average Equity while Net Loan and Lease

to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROL The Regression model also

uses ROA as dependent variable and 6 metrics independent variables as ROE, the

resulis show that Net Interest Income/ Average Assels and Net Loan and Lease to

Deposit both have a 100% probability of appearing in any regression models Net

Tutorest Income’ Average Assets has a positive lincer relationship wilh Net

4 Recommendation

References,

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

Acknowledgement Wirt and foremost, | would like to express sincere thanks to my thesis advisor

Dr Le Due Thinh of the International School, Vietnam National University for the

continuous supporl of my study and research, for his helpful guidance, constant

advise and feedback during the time when I do the thesis Dr Thinh helps me a Iot

in research, data collection and thesis writing It’s such an honor and great

opportunity for me to have chance to receive advice and support from Dr Thinh

T would also like to express my gratitude to my friends at university who gave

me continuous advice and support during the time when I analyze data and write thesis They also helped me analyze and comment about the retail banking industry

so that I can complete my thesis efficiently and effectively

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

Table of contents

Chapter 1; Introduction

1 The necessity of topic:

2 The goal of topi

3 Research outcomes:

2.1 Summary of Correlation of Companies between featured metrics and TSR 1

2.2 Summary of Correlation of Companies between standard metrics and TSR 1

1.3 Sinnmary of Correlation af Companies between featured metrics and TSR 2

2.4, Summary of Correlation af Companies between standard metrics and TSR 2

2.5 Companies with na stgnificant correlation hetween metrics and stack performance for both TSR 1 and TSR 2

2.6 Summary of signitcant correlation of metrics and TSR

3 Case study analysis of HSBC Holdings

4 Analyzing the multiple regression

4.1, Multiple regression models for ROK

Chapter 4: Conclusion, Implication and Recommendation

1, Conclusion and discussion

Acknowledgement Wirt and foremost, | would like to express sincere thanks to my thesis advisor

Dr Le Due Thinh of the International School, Vietnam National University for the

continuous supporl of my study and research, for his helpful guidance, constant

advise and feedback during the time when I do the thesis Dr Thinh helps me a Iot

in research, data collection and thesis writing It’s such an honor and great

opportunity for me to have chance to receive advice and support from Dr Thinh

T would also like to express my gratitude to my friends at university who gave

me continuous advice and support during the time when I analyze data and write thesis They also helped me analyze and comment about the retail banking industry

so that I can complete my thesis efficiently and effectively

List of abbreviation

TSR

Average Assets Deposit

Harning per share Net Interes! Income Net Loan and Leases Retum on Average Uquity Return on Average Asscis

‘Yotal Assets Total Equi

Total slock return

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

Acknowledgement Wirt and foremost, | would like to express sincere thanks to my thesis advisor

Dr Le Due Thinh of the International School, Vietnam National University for the

continuous supporl of my study and research, for his helpful guidance, constant

advise and feedback during the time when I do the thesis Dr Thinh helps me a Iot

in research, data collection and thesis writing It’s such an honor and great

opportunity for me to have chance to receive advice and support from Dr Thinh

T would also like to express my gratitude to my friends at university who gave

me continuous advice and support during the time when I analyze data and write thesis They also helped me analyze and comment about the retail banking industry

so that I can complete my thesis efficiently and effectively

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

Letter of Declaration

i hereby declare that the Graduation Project Retail Bank industry: Key metrics and stock performance is the thesis of my own research, analysis and has never been published before During the process of this project, Thave seriously taken research ethics; all results of this project are my own research and data collection: all references in this project are clearly cited according to regulalions

T bear full responsibility for the fidelity of the mumber and dala and other

contents of my graduation project

ddanoi, May 25" 2020

Phùng Minh Sơn

Table of contents

Chapter 1; Introduction

1 The necessity of topic:

2 The goal of topi

3 Research outcomes:

2.1 Summary of Correlation of Companies between featured metrics and TSR 1

2.2 Summary of Correlation of Companies between standard metrics and TSR 1

1.3 Sinnmary of Correlation af Companies between featured metrics and TSR 2

2.4, Summary of Correlation af Companies between standard metrics and TSR 2

2.5 Companies with na stgnificant correlation hetween metrics and stack performance for both TSR 1 and TSR 2

2.6 Summary of signitcant correlation of metrics and TSR

3 Case study analysis of HSBC Holdings

4 Analyzing the multiple regression

4.1, Multiple regression models for ROK

Chapter 4: Conclusion, Implication and Recommendation

1, Conclusion and discussion

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

List of abbreviation

TSR

Average Assets Deposit

Harning per share Net Interes! Income Net Loan and Leases Retum on Average Uquity Return on Average Asscis

‘Yotal Assets Total Equi

Total slock return

Letter of Declaration

i hereby declare that the Graduation Project Retail Bank industry: Key metrics and stock performance is the thesis of my own research, analysis and has never been published before During the process of this project, Thave seriously taken research ethics; all results of this project are my own research and data collection: all references in this project are clearly cited according to regulalions

T bear full responsibility for the fidelity of the mumber and dala and other

contents of my graduation project

ddanoi, May 25" 2020

Phùng Minh Sơn

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

List of abbreviation

TSR

Average Assets Deposit

Harning per share Net Interes! Income Net Loan and Leases Retum on Average Uquity Return on Average Asscis

‘Yotal Assets Total Equi

Total slock return

Letter of Declaration

i hereby declare that the Graduation Project Retail Bank industry: Key metrics and stock performance is the thesis of my own research, analysis and has never been published before During the process of this project, Thave seriously taken research ethics; all results of this project are my own research and data collection: all references in this project are clearly cited according to regulalions

T bear full responsibility for the fidelity of the mumber and dala and other

contents of my graduation project

ddanoi, May 25" 2020

Phùng Minh Sơn

List of abbreviation

TSR

Average Assets Deposit

Harning per share Net Interes! Income Net Loan and Leases Retum on Average Uquity Return on Average Asscis

‘Yotal Assets Total Equi

Total slock return

4 Recommendation

References,

4 Recommendation

References,

4 Recommendation

References,

Acknowledgement Wirt and foremost, | would like to express sincere thanks to my thesis advisor

Dr Le Due Thinh of the International School, Vietnam National University for the

continuous supporl of my study and research, for his helpful guidance, constant

advise and feedback during the time when I do the thesis Dr Thinh helps me a Iot

in research, data collection and thesis writing It’s such an honor and great

opportunity for me to have chance to receive advice and support from Dr Thinh

T would also like to express my gratitude to my friends at university who gave

me continuous advice and support during the time when I analyze data and write thesis They also helped me analyze and comment about the retail banking industry

so that I can complete my thesis efficiently and effectively

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

List of abbreviation

TSR

Average Assets Deposit

Harning per share Net Interes! Income Net Loan and Leases Retum on Average Uquity Return on Average Asscis

‘Yotal Assets Total Equi

Total slock return

Income/Average Asset while Net Loan and Lease to Deposit has a negative linear relationship with ROA

10 Practical applicabilily, i any:

Kirst of all, the study provides basic understanding and part of financial analysis

of retail banks from different region all over the world, These banks are ont top largest banks in their countries, which represent closcly the financial performance and stock price of their regions

The study is an acaden : research which anarlyzes ond provides summary of understanding about the impacts of featured and standard metrics on the effectiveness and efficiency of retail banks operating results which reflects on stock price of these banks in different regions

‘This study also includes the research about financial analysis which based on correlation of metrics and total shareholders’ retum so that the investor and financial analyst can have the overview about the important metrics in analyzing the relail banks stock performance and make the decision of investment

Date: 27/05/2020 Signature

Full name: Phimg Minh Son

List of figures and table

Figure 1.Real GDP growth by region 2013-2023

Figure 2 Average NLL/A and NLL/D of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 3 Average Growth rate of NLL and TA of 20 banks from 2010 to 2019

Figure 4 Average ROA and ROE of 20 banks from 2010 (o 2019

Figure 5 Average NII/AA of 20 banks from 2010 ta 2019

Table 1 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 1

Table 2 Summary significant correlations with p-value < 10% of TSR 2

Table 3 Summary of correlations among standard and fealured metrics

10

12

23

24 +

26

39

Al 4B

Table of contents

Chapter 1; Introduction

1 The necessity of topic:

2 The goal of topi

3 Research outcomes:

2.1 Summary of Correlation of Companies between featured metrics and TSR 1

2.2 Summary of Correlation of Companies between standard metrics and TSR 1

1.3 Sinnmary of Correlation af Companies between featured metrics and TSR 2

2.4, Summary of Correlation af Companies between standard metrics and TSR 2

2.5 Companies with na stgnificant correlation hetween metrics and stack performance for both TSR 1 and TSR 2

2.6 Summary of signitcant correlation of metrics and TSR

3 Case study analysis of HSBC Holdings

4 Analyzing the multiple regression

4.1, Multiple regression models for ROK

Chapter 4: Conclusion, Implication and Recommendation

1, Conclusion and discussion

Letter of Declaration

i hereby declare that the Graduation Project Retail Bank industry: Key metrics and stock performance is the thesis of my own research, analysis and has never been published before During the process of this project, Thave seriously taken research ethics; all results of this project are my own research and data collection: all references in this project are clearly cited according to regulalions

T bear full responsibility for the fidelity of the mumber and dala and other

contents of my graduation project

ddanoi, May 25" 2020

Phùng Minh Sơn