Climate change's influence on the uk agriculture business

Climate change's influence on the UK agriculture business.Assessment 1 Unit: BUSINESS PROJECT Instructor: Minh Thu By Vu Thanh Tung Student ID: 2323255 February 2024 © Tung.T.Vu 2024 UN

Climate change's influence on the UK agriculture business.

Assessment 1

Unit: BUSINESS PROJECT

Instructor: Minh Thu

By

Vu Thanh Tung

Student ID: 2323255

February 2024

© Tung.T.Vu 2024

UNIVERSITY OF BEDFORDSHIRE

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

-*** -FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY

HA NOI CAMPUS

-*** -Table of contents

I Introduction……… 3

II Industry Overview………3

III Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture……….5

1 How does Climate Change affect the environment in the UK……… 5

2 Impact on Agriculture……… 9

3 What could happen……… 12

IV Adapting to Climate Change………15

V Conclusion/ Appendix/ References………16

I Introduction.

As we all know, climate change has long been a major worry for many people Why? Because it directly impacts our lives, and the situation is becoming increasingly serious by the day Climate change looks to pose a significant threat to global industries Of course, the agriculture sector is the most affected and harmed The United Kingdom, with its diversified agricultural environment and long history of farming traditions, is not immune to the consequences of this

phenomenon This article investigates the multidimensional impact of climate change on UK agriculture, taking into account both the problems it presents and the adaptation techniques that farmers and policymakers are implementing to mitigate its impact

II Industry Overview.

According to the International Trade Administration (2023)

In 2022, the United Kingdom was the tenth-largest export destination for consumer-oriented food and beverage items from the United States, accounting for more than $1 billion U.S wines, notably those from California, have built a high reputation in the UK and are expected to stay strong in 2022, with exports worth

$173 million Branded snack foods and grocery items have also achieved remarkable success, owing primarily to the creation of specialized markets and specialized distribution based on their qualitative qualities

The United Kingdom is also an important market for US fish and shellfish goods, with exports to the UK reaching $64.4 million in 2022 Previously confined to canned salmon, U.S frozen salmon and other fish, particularly pollock, are rapidly entering the UK processing business to compensate for the drop in whitefish collected volumes caused by low levels of fish stocks in European fishing regions Agriculture in the United Kingdom is intense, highly automated, and efficient by European standards, although it amounts to less than 0.5 percent of the country's total GDP While UK agriculture meets 58% of the country's food needs, the UK is significantly reliant on imports to fulfill the diverse wants of the UK consumer, who expects year-round availability of all food goods

In July 2023, the annual inflation rate for food and nonalcoholic beverages was 14.9 percent, down from 19.2 percent in March 2023, the highest food inflation rate in over 45 years Following a year of significant rises in food costs, it is expected that grocery price growth will peak and that food prices will gradually begin to reduce

In August 2023, the UK cost-of-living crisis continues to be difficult for

consumers, with practically every basic item significantly higher than in 2022 According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the rising cost of food shopping is the leading cause of greater living expenditures, affecting 95 percent of families This is a serious problem for the British supermarket business

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/united-kingdom-agricultural-sectors

III Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture.

1 How does climate change affect the environment of the UK?

* Greenpeace - is an organization founded in 1971 by people who are concerned about safeguarding the natural environment from degradation, with headquarters in London and offices across the world

How climate change has affected the UK over the past 3 years?

- Heatwaves:

The majority of the UK now understands what it is like to live through an intense heatwave A heatwave is declared in the United Kingdom when daily maximum temperatures meet or surpass a certain temperature (which varies by county) for three consecutive days

Extreme heat can pose a major health risk to people with heart and lung diseases, and heatwave days are associated with increased deaths in the UK In the United Kingdom, heatwave deaths currently number in the hundreds

Heatwaves in cities can also lead to increases in harmful air pollution, which can cause respiratory problems and developmental issues in children

- Flooding:

The United Kingdom is presently seeing frequent record-breaking winter floods Floods may kill people and do incalculable damage to homes and livelihoods, frequently in the same regions year after year

Rainfall becomes more often as temperatures rise This is due in part to warmer air's ability to contain more moisture, which results in more intense rainfall In the

United Kingdom, severe flooding frequently occurs after protracted droughts because dried-out soil cannot absorb heavy rains

- Wildfires in the UK are on the rise while being smaller than those in North

America, Australia, and the Amazon

Large wildfires pollute the air and can damage the local economy They have the potential to harm vital animal habitats in the United Kingdom, such as national parks, old forests, and peatlands

- Cold temperatures:

Even abnormally cold weather in the United Kingdom can be attributed to climate change Global warming is beginning to disrupt the Gulf Stream, which is responsible for the UK's milder and wetter winters than other regions of northern Europe The outcome is exceptionally cold weather (similar to a 'Beast from the East'), bringing snow and freezing temperatures farther south than typical

- Rising sea levels and degradation of the coast:

Climate change's general worldwide influence on sea levels, along with increased rainfall and storm surges, as well as the potential of waves to wash away land, is already harming a few places in the United Kingdom

Norfolk is another section of the UK that is experiencing sea level rise and erosion, while storms have caused coastal railway lines in Devon and Cornwall to collapse While it may sound extreme to assume that sea levels may rise so high that entire towns and beaches are swallowed, experts believe it is plausible A worst-case

scenario might result in up to nine meters of sea level rise and a worldwide average temperature rise of 4ºC over pre-industrial standards

https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/challenges/climate-change/how-will-climate-change-affect-the-uk/

* The data below, according to research by UK Research and Innovation, help

to comprehend the impact of climate change.

- Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have grown.

CO2 levels have risen by 43% from 280 ppm in the pre-industrial era to above 400 ppm now

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture and forestry have risen by 154% and 21%, respectively

- Since the 1980s, average UK temperatures have climbed by 0.8-1oC Since

1990, the top ten hottest years on record (since 1910) have happened exclusively

In 2014, the UK had its hottest year on record Between 2005 and 2014, average yearly increasing degree days were 16% greater than from 1961 to 1990 From

2006 to 2015, the growing season was 29 days longer on average compared to 1961-1990

( Kendon, M., McCarthy, M and Jevrejeva, S (2015) State of the UK Climate

2014 Met Office )

‘Growing degree days’ are the day-by-day sum of the number of degrees by which the mean temperature is more than 5.5°C

Calculated with the Central England Temperature record as the period where the daily mean temperature is above 5oC for more than 5 consecutive days )

- Rainfall amounts have fluctuated from year to year Over the last few decades, the UK has seen a rise in annual average rainfall, notably in Scotland The long-term trend is unclear, based on rainfall records in England and Wales since 1766 ( The Met Office National Climate Information Centre (NCIC) UK climate statistics 1910-2014 based on the methodology of Perry and Hollis (2005) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate

England and Wales Precipitation Series 1766–2014, based on the methodology of Alexander and Jones (2001) )

- Winter rainfall in the UK has grown over the previous century, despite its extremely unpredictable seasonal pattern Summer rainfall has declined throughout time, but the pattern is unclear, with recent rainy summers Heavy rainfall events, which drop a big amount of rain in a short period, have increased their impact on winter rainfall during the last 50 years

- In the 20th century, sea levels in the UK rose at an average pace of 1-2 mm/year, but this rate has accelerated to above 3 mm/year in the last decade Peak sea levels during storms seem to rise at a comparable rate

- Severe windstorms have grown increasingly frequent in recent decades It's unclear if this represents a long-term trend

( Hanna, E et al (2008) J Climate, 21, 6739-6766 Donat, M.G et al (2011) Natural Hazards and Earth Sciences, 11:1351-1370 )

- The frequency and amount of floods caused by large river flows in winter have grown during the previous 30 years, notably in the west and north Sea-level rise has already impacted UK estuaries, exacerbating the impact of storm surges

- In 2005-2014, there were 15% fewer days of air frost and 12% fewer days of ground frost than in 1961-19905 With the noteworthy exceptions of 2010 and

2013, widespread and significant deep snow occurrences have been uncommon in recent decades

( Kendon, M., McCarthy, M and Jevrejeva, S (2015) State of the UK Climate

2014 Met Office )

- In recent decades, peak ground-level concentrations of ozone, an atmospheric pollutant that may harm sensitive crops and trees, have decreased by around 30% Background ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere have been continuously increasing by around 0.2 parts per billion every year

https://www.ukri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/131221-NERC-LWEC-AgricultureForestryClimateChangeImpacts-ReportCard2016-English.pdf

2 Impact of Climate Change on the UK’s Agriculture Industry

* According to research by UK Research and Innovation:

- Increase in CO2 concentration: In general, increasing the quantity of CO2 in

the atmosphere increases plant production This reaction, however, decreases at greater doses and is heavily influenced by other parameters such as temperature, plant type, and water and nutrient availability The 43% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration from the preindustrial period may have contributed very somewhat

to the huge gains in crop production that occurred during this time due to other

agricultural innovations Plants require less water when they grow in higher CO2 concentrations, which may partially offset productivity losses due to drier circumstances There are additional qualitative impacts on plants, such as changes

in chemical composition (usually lower nitrogen and greater soluble carbohydrate contents) and hence nutritional quality These impacts differ depending on the species and the growth environment

- Increased average temperatures: Warmer average temperatures in recent

decades have accelerated spring and postponed winter, resulting in longer growing seasons Although data is scarce, this has most likely resulted in increased productivity of grazing, root crops (such as sugar beet), green vegetables, and some fruit crops Warmer temperatures may speed maturity in other crops, including many cereal kinds whose growth is not greatly impacted by day length, lowering crop duration and, as a result, yields Warmer average temperatures will also be followed by more frequent heat waves, which will influence agricultural output, quality, and dairy cow and other animal productivity Temperature increases have already resulted in a northward movement of crops such as fodder maize and a wider adoption of crops formerly cultivated only in warmer climes (e.g.,

grapevines and apricots); this trend is expected to continue This may occur quickly in agriculture, but in forestry, the change of tree species or genotypes will

be delayed owing to the longer forest development cycle Changes in tree species may need to be implemented more swiftly in urban greenspace, where

temperatures are already higher As temperatures rise, so will the height

restrictions for many agricultural and tree species

- Water: Plant production is highly dependent on water availability Warmer, drier summers expected as a result of climate change would affect agricultural and

pasture growth in many regions of the UK, lowering yields and animal output Although plants may recover from brief periods of water scarcity, which diminish crop canopy expansion during the vegetative stage and hence reduce CO2 absorption, longer periods of drought can have a long-term impact, especially if they occur during certain phases of crop development Droughts of this type are projected to become more frequent and severe Demand for irrigation will also rise, notably for high-value horticultural crops and potatoes, which may shift where they are cultivated in the UK The anticipated increase in winter rainfall might potentially have harmful consequences More frequent and strong rainstorm events are anticipated to cause increased erosion and loss of topsoil and nutrients Soil waterlogging can have an impact on tree, crop, and pasture growth by limiting the passage of oxygen to the roots, and hence root function (for example, nutrient absorption) Excess water can also cause soil compaction, limiting machinery and cattle movements, and intensifying some illnesses Flooding submerges crops and pastures, inhibiting growth and development while also physically hurting the plants and soil However, there may be chances for storing extra winter rainfall for use in summer irrigation

- Pests, diseases, and weeds: Temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture all impact

the generation and release of spores, which frequently determine the severity of plant disease outbreaks Night temperatures and humidity levels are frequently crucial in providing moist conditions that allow many diseases to complete their life cycles Warmer temperatures, particularly milder winters, and warmer summers will be the primary drivers of increasing pest and disease incidence Warmer circumstances have already resulted in increased overwintering, faster spring development, and more generations each growing season for several insect

pests Warmer temperatures have also resulted in the migration of pests and illnesses from farther south These trends are expected to persist, while severe high temperatures may limit insect numbers While droughts can diminish pests like slugs, milder, wetter winters will help them Increased pest and disease concerns, especially those that influence feed before harvest and during storage, may have an impact on livestock output Increases in CO2 concentration, temperature, and water availability will most likely have the same effect on weed development as they do

on crops However, if crop and weed growth temperature thresholds change or their life-cycle dates shift, competition may be altered Weeds contain considerable genetic variation within and across populations, which may allow some species to quickly adapt to changing environments Cropping and management practices may influence weed diversity Climate change will influence control methods as well Weather affects the effectiveness of certain pesticides, and pests' natural enemies have their own 'climate ranges' that are not always the same as their hosts' However, there is insufficient data to make valid predictions regarding the effects

of climate change on these natural enemies and the efficacy of biological pest management methods

* What could happen:

- CO2 levels in the atmosphere will rise, but the rate and maximum concentration will be influenced by worldwide emission reduction efforts By 2050, CO2 concentrations may vary from 440 ppm to 540 ppm, depending on emissions CO2 concentrations are expected to reach 430-760 ppm by 2080

( These concentrations are from the IPCC for the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 )