VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI PHUONG LAN TAKING STOCK OF VIETNAM’S CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ACTIONS UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT MASTER’S THES
INTRODUCTION
International agreements on climate change and the Global Stocktake under
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change, signed in 2015 during COP21 in Paris, represents a significant milestone in global climate commitment It builds on over two decades of scientific research and international negotiations under the UNFCCC, with the goal of limiting the global temperature rise to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and striving to limit the increase to 1.5 °C As of April 2023, the Agreement has been adopted by 194 Parties, including 193 States and the European Union, reflecting diverse levels of greenhouse gas emissions, economic development, and governance structures.
The Paris Agreement (PA) represents a pivotal milestone in international climate negotiations, shifting from the Kyoto Protocol's burdensome approach for industrialized nations to a cooperative framework involving both developed and developing countries This agreement establishes an ambition mechanism that fosters mutual trust among parties, allowing them to commit to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions Central to this mechanism are the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the Enhanced Transparency Framework, and the Global Stocktake, which collectively ensure that countries can confidently strive for their climate goals, knowing that others are equally dedicated and adequately supported.
While the ambition mechanism under the Paris Agreement (PA) promotes cooperation and encouragement, it also has inherent limitations The voluntary nature of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) raises concerns about how to assess their fairness and ambition in relation to one another, particularly when considering each country's unique national circumstances (Català et al., 2022).
To support alleviating the situation, ETF stepped in by encouraging information sharing
The ETF emphasizes transparency but does not evaluate the ambition levels of nations in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (Weikmans et al., 2020) The Global Stocktake (GST) aims to assess collective progress and is intended to guide the individual actions of each Party This raises the important question of how to connect the collective assessment with the specific actions required from each country Party.
Under this condition, the first GST is currently being conducted, starting from June
The Global Stocktake (GST), which began in 2022 and will conclude at COP28 in November 2023, emphasizes collective progress in climate action rather than evaluating individual countries However, it is anticipated to guide national actions, encouraging countries to enhance their ambitions in their second Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submissions due in 2025 Therefore, each country must assess its climate efforts within the context of the ongoing GST to effectively incorporate its findings into the updating and implementation of their NDCs.
The rationale of the research
Vietnam, recognized as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, has actively participated in global efforts to address this pressing issue The nation signed the UNFCCC in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, later ratifying the Paris Agreement in October 2016 In its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in 2015, Vietnam committed to an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2021 to 2030 based on its own resources, with a target of 25% reduction achievable with international support In response to calls for enhanced climate ambitions, Vietnam updated its NDC in 2020, pledging an additional reduction of up to 9% unconditionally and 27% conditionally by 2030.
At the 26th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in 2021 (COP26), Vietnam committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, which was subsequently incorporated into its National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) In line with this commitment, Vietnam updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022, enhancing its climate action goals.
From 2021 to 2030, Vietnam aims to reduce its emissions by 15.8% unconditionally and 43.5% conditionally Recently, Vietnam joined South Africa and Indonesia in the Just Energy Transition Partnership, where developed countries will co-fund $15.5 billion to support Vietnam's emission reduction efforts in the energy sector This initiative focuses on phasing down coal power and increasing the share of renewable energy in the national energy supply by 2030.
Vietnam is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, but faces challenges in implementing and monitoring climate mitigation efforts The country regularly reports its progress under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, with a national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory system established by a 2015 Prime Minister's decision A recent decree (No 06/2022/NĐ-CP) further outlines the tracking of GHG emissions and reductions at various levels While technical guidelines are being developed to operationalize this tracking system, Vietnam's national transparency framework is still evolving, resulting in data gaps that hinder the quantitative assessment of its mitigation actions amid the ongoing Global Stocktake (GST).
Vietnam prioritizes climate mitigation alongside its economic and social development goals as a developing country The success of its climate objectives relies on the alignment of strategies, plans, and actions with other development targets, as well as the effective mobilization and allocation of internal resources and external support in human capital, technology, and finance.
This research analyzes the data gaps necessary for quantitatively assessing Vietnam's climate mitigation actions while also offering a qualitative evaluation of the enabling factors influencing the implementation of the country's climate commitments These efforts are conducted in the context of ongoing developments in climate action.
GST in order to strengthen the ambition and implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution under the current condition of the country.
Research Overview
This research is anchored in the context of the Paris Agreement and the ongoing Global Stocktake (GST), focusing on its mechanisms and scholarly discussions regarding the implications of its outcomes for individual countries The study aims to achieve three key objectives, each accompanied by specific tasks to explore these critical themes.
Firstly, the research will identify the gaps in data in order to quantitatively taking stock of climate mitigation actions of Vietnam
Secondly, the research will assess the key enabling factors that are affecting the implementation of its climate commitments including the measures and targets set in its NDC
The research will evaluate the involvement of the private sector in climate mitigation efforts in Vietnam, highlighting its crucial role in achieving the country's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term climate commitments, particularly in light of the ongoing emphasis on the non-state sector during the GST.
The research aims to answer three questions with their respective hypothesis as described below:
Vietnam faces significant gaps in data and reporting systems that hinder the effective assessment of its mitigation actions Addressing these gaps is crucial for accurately interpreting the results of the first Global Stocktake (GST) and translating them into actionable strategies Strengthening data collection and reporting will enhance Vietnam's ability to boost the ambition and implementation of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) by 2025.
Vietnam, as a developing country, faces significant challenges in addressing climate issues due to a lack of essential data This data deficiency hinders the country's ability to enhance its climate action efforts and limits opportunities for strengthening its climate ambitions.
What are the key factors that enable Vietnam to reach its final goal of increasing ambition and enhancing the implementation of its climate mitigation targets and pledge?
Hypothesis: Enabling factors of mitigation actions in Vietnam need to be enhanced in order to support the enhancement of climate ambition and implementation in Vietnam
Given the important role as one of the key enabling factors, how the private sector is engaging into the climate mitigation actions in Vietnam?
Hypothesis: There are opportunities for private sector to be further engaged in the climate mitigation actions in Vietnam and thus contribute to enhance its climate ambition
The logical framework of the research is described in the following diagram:
The diagram highlights the connection between the research objectives and tasks, centering on the stocktake of Vietnam's mitigation actions in alignment with the ongoing 1st Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement The ultimate aim is to enhance the future Nationally Determined Contribution This stocktake will be evaluated in the context of current global processes and relevant academic discussions, identifying data and knowledge gaps The assessment of mitigation actions focuses on the adequacy of ambition and effectiveness of implementation, analyzed through key enabling factors: transparency, coherence, and implementability, which will be elaborated in Chapter 2 [Literature Review] Key stakeholders, both governmental and non-governmental, play a crucial role in this process, with a specific emphasis on the engagement of the private sector in climate mitigation efforts in Vietnam.
This research focuses exclusively on assessing mitigation actions in Vietnam and their relevant implementation methods, acknowledging that a comprehensive stock-take of climate actions should also encompass adaptation strategies, their means of implementation, and other interconnected issues.
The ongoing Global Stocktake (GST) highlights the crucial involvement of non-state actors, particularly businesses and civil society, in achieving countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) In Vietnam, the private sector plays a significant role in climate mitigation efforts; therefore, this research specifically examines its engagement in addressing climate change, considering the constraints of time and resources.
This study focuses on the outputs of the GST process up to May 2023, acknowledging that it will continue until its conclusion at COP28 in November 2023.
LITERATURE REVIEW
The climate governance under the Paris Agreement
2.1.1 International climate negotiation and the current deal under Paris Agreement
The recognition of the Earth's natural greenhouse effect and its correlation with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels emerged at the end of the 19th century It wasn't until 1956 that scientist Gilbert Plass formally introduced the theory of climate change driven by human-induced carbon dioxide emissions from industrial activities Since this pivotal discovery, extensive scientific research has consistently validated the existence of climate change and its severe repercussions on natural ecosystems, economies, and social structures, with growing confidence in these findings.
Despite urgent scientific calls to address climate change, it took nearly 50 years after Plass' findings for global governments to agree on collective action through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and enacted in 2005, marked a significant commitment to mitigate climate change, binding industrialized and transitioning economies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions The Protocol featured two commitment periods: the first from 2008 to 2021 and the second from 2013 to 2020 However, it faced criticism for excluding major developing economies like China and India, and for imposing what many viewed as costly economic penalties rather than fostering opportunities for positive change.
The Paris Agreement, established amid a complex and divided political landscape surrounding climate change, serves as a legally binding instrument under international law, encompassing both developed and developing nations This Agreement outlines specific rights and obligations for its ratifying Parties; however, the predominantly voluntary language used within it raises questions about its enforceability (Falk, 2016) Article 4 plays a crucial role in defining these commitments.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a fundamental component of the Paris Agreement aimed at climate mitigation According to Article 4.2, each Party is required to prepare, communicate, and maintain successive NDCs that outline their intended achievements The use of the verb "shall" indicates a clear obligation for each Party, while the phrase that follows specifies that this obligation is limited to what a Party intends to accomplish.
Parties are urged to enhance their mitigation ambitions in subsequent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted every five years, as stated in Article 4.3 of the Paris Agreement: “Each Party’s successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current NDC and reflect its highest possible ambition.” However, the use of the verb "will" indicates an expectation rather than a mandatory requirement, highlighting a respect for self-determination This approach lacks the characteristic of obligation and does not impose any consequences for non-compliance among Parties.
The governance structure of the Paris Agreement (PA) primarily outlines principles rather than providing detailed operational guidance for implementation It wasn't until COP24 in Katowice in 2018 that the Paris Rulebook, or Katowice Package, was established through extensive technical discussions and political compromise, defining the global implementation of the PA This package addresses various topics, including the information required in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the operational aspects of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), and the conduct of the Global Stocktake (GST) However, certain provisions, like the voluntary cooperation mechanism under Article 6, faced differing views among Parties regarding their operation and were therefore excluded from the Package As of this writing, discussions on international emission trading under Article 6 continue, while the GST has an official decision (Decision 19/CMA.1) outlining its modalities.
19 the GST, the door still opens with a lot of flexibility for the organization team to conduct the process with consultation with Parties
2.1.2 The ambition mechanism under the Paris Agreement
As mentioned above, the ambition mechanism under the Paris Agreement comprises of three pillars: Nationally Determined Contributions, the Enhanced Transparency Framework and the Global Stocktake
Figure 2.1 The ambition mechanism of the Paris Agreement on Climate change
The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a key element of the Paris Agreement (PA), enabling countries to enhance their climate actions over time while accommodating varying economic development levels NDCs encourage nations to pursue climate mitigation efforts at their own pace, with the aim of increasing ambition and recognizing common but differentiated responsibilities The inaugural round of official NDC submissions occurred between 2015 and 2016, following the signing of the PA, with the next submission round scheduled for 2025.
To address the shortage of obligation substance, the Enhanced Transparency Framework and the Global Stocktake have been introduced as transparency mechanisms These initiatives aim to promote accountability by ensuring that Parties' actions are subjected to a transparent information-sharing and review process, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of their implementation.
The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) established by the Paris Agreement (PA) replaces the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system from the UNFCCC Like the MRV, the ETF requires country Parties to consistently and transparently report on their climate action implementations The Paris Agreement also offers significant flexibility for nations at varying levels of economic development, with the initial reporting deadline for developing countries set for December 31, 2024.
The information provided under the ETF is crucial for the Global Stocktake, which assesses collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement (PA) every five years This process addresses key questions: our current status in PA implementation, the necessary steps to achieve its goals, and the measures and cooperation required to get there Conducted two years prior to each Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) update, the outcomes of the Global Stocktake will guide countries in enhancing their commitments and implementation strategies for the next NDC cycle.
2.1.2 The on-going Global Stocktake
International discussions on climate change can drive increased action and collaboration, with the Paris Agreement playing a crucial role through its Global Stocktake (GST) mechanism The Conference of the Parties, acting as the meeting of the Parties to the Agreement, will periodically evaluate the implementation of the Agreement to assess collective progress towards its long-term goals This comprehensive and facilitative process will consider aspects of mitigation, adaptation, and support, while emphasizing equity and the best available science, as outlined in the Paris Agreement of 2015.
Decision 19/CMA.1 outlines the modalities for the GST process, ensuring it is comprehensive, facilitative, effective, and efficient, while also providing flexibility for the co-chairs of the joint contact group to assist in its implementation.
21 process to set up a wide range of details On this basis, the first GST is organized in three phases with an overlapping time in between them
Figure 2.2 Timeline for the Global Stocktake (Source: Climate Chance)
The initial phase of information collection and preparation commenced at COP27 in 2021 and concluded at SB58 in June 2023 This phase involved gathering data from both parties and non-parties to compile the latest insights on mitigation, adaptation, and implementation strategies Subsequently, synthesis papers were developed based on the collected information.
During the second phase of the Technical Assessment, discussions among Parties and non-Party stakeholders were guided by synthesis papers during structured Technical Dialogues These dialogues included three rounds, with two already completed at SB56 and COP27, featuring plenary sessions for agenda overview and feedback, roundtables for in-depth debates on thematic areas like mitigation and adaptation, and a World Café format for casual exploration of GST topics Synthesis reports summarizing these discussions will be released at the end of this phase to inform the next steps.
In the final phase, Parties will collaboratively evaluate the outputs from previous stages to determine the ultimate results of the process Political discussions will only commence at this stage, with messages communicated to Parties and stakeholders to enhance ambition and action Ongoing debates among climate negotiation delegates and scholars focus on the anticipated nature of these final results and the subsequent steps for individual Parties Currently, there exists a knowledge gap regarding the expected outcomes of the Global Stocktake (GST) and how Parties will interpret and implement them within their national contexts.
The climate governance in Vietnam
2.2.1 Institutional arrangements for climate change issues in Vietnam
In Vietnam, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads climate change activities through its Department of Climate Change, established in 2017 following the ratification of the Paris Agreement As the national focal point at UNFCCC, MONRE coordinates climate action formulation and implementation across various sectors and sub-national levels The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) integrate climate change into national and provincial socio-economic development strategies Additionally, line ministries, including the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), the Ministry of Transportation (MOT), and the Ministry of Construction (MOC), are responsible for developing and executing climate strategies, with designated climate change focal points typically located within their science, technology, and environment departments.
The National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC), established in 2012, serves as the premier inter-ministerial body for climate policy coordination in the country Chaired by the Prime Minister and supported by a Deputy Prime Minister who also serves as the Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), the NCCC operates with its standing office under this ministry.
In response to the recent COP26 announcement, Vietnam has established the "National Steering Committee for implementing Vietnam's commitments at COP26" to align its institutional framework with its net-zero economy ambitions This committee, structured similarly to the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC), designates the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) as the lead coordinating body responsible for implementing emission reduction targets.
Local People’s Committees in provinces and cities must collaborate with relevant ministries and agencies to plan and execute climate action initiatives Typically, the coordination of climate change efforts is managed by the provincial Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DONRE), mirroring the national structure However, in certain instances, like in Da Nang province, a dedicated agency focused on climate change responses has been established, incorporating representatives from various departments and operating under the coordination of DONRE.
In addition to governmental bodies, various advisory organizations play a crucial role in climate action, such as the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE) and the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change (IMHEN) These agencies, which operate under line ministries, offer essential scientific and policy guidance to support effective climate initiatives.
This research, through expert consultation will discuss how this climate governance structure works in improving the implementation and strengthening the ambition of climate mitigation Vietnam
2.2.2 The climate commitments of Vietnam
In October 2016, Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement, establishing its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted in 2015 At COP26 in Glasgow, Vietnam committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, contingent upon receiving international support.
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Vietnam must aim to peak its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions promptly and adopt ambitious strategies to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050 This commitment is reflected in Vietnam's updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) following the COP26 announcement.
In 2022, Vietnam committed to a significant reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions, aiming for a 15.8% decrease by 2030 compared to a 2014 business-as-usual reference level, with a conditional target of up to 43% This new target marks a substantial increase from the previous Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2020, which proposed reductions of 9% and 27%, respectively.
Vietnam's NDC 2022 was crafted in alignment with the ambitious National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), which was announced following the country's commitments at COP26 The strategy outlines a clear pathway towards achieving a net-zero emission economy by 2050 Specifically, the NCCS aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 43.5% by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario from 2014, with emissions expected to peak by 2035 before reaching a complete reduction of 100% by 2050, including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) considerations.
Vietnam has emerged as one of the first three developing countries to join the Just Energy Transition Partnership, collaborating with developed nations and international financial institutions This agreement aims to reduce Vietnam's peak electricity generation emissions from 240 MtCO2e by 2035 to 170 MtCO2e by 2030, supported by significant financial resources.
2.2.3 The national climate policy framework of Vietnam
Vietnam's climate commitments are underpinned by a comprehensive national climate policy framework, which includes various legal documents, strategies, and action plans at multiple levels The cornerstone of this framework is Resolution 24/NQ-TW, issued by the Central Executive Committee of the Central Party in 2013, which emphasizes that responding to climate change is a critical priority for the entire political system As the Resolution approaches its ten-year mark, it is currently undergoing evaluation for potential updates and revisions.
In 2020, the Government introduced the new Law on Environmental Protection, which includes provisions focused on climate change mitigation, adaptation, monitoring systems, and the carbon market To support these initiatives, Decree 06/2022-NĐ-CP was enacted, providing essential regulations for implementing climate change mitigation strategies.
Decree 06/2022-NĐ-CP establishes a foundational framework for sectors and organizations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and report their outcomes In accordance with this decree, various ministries have set specific GHG emission targets at the sectoral level.
The National Climate Change Strategy and the National Green Growth Strategy serve as key frameworks for addressing climate change, supported by various national and sectoral action plans that vary in enforcement power based on allocated budgets A significant recent addition is the Power Development Plan VIII, which outlines essential strategies for the energy sector in combating climate change.
METHODOLOGIES
Data collection and desk study
To identify the data gap in Vietnam's quantitative assessment of climate actions, the author gathered all decisions and technical guidelines from the UNFCCC related to the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) outlined in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement Additionally, studies and reports detailing the development and operation of the ETF were reviewed Through content analysis, the author pinpointed specific reporting requirements for data applicable to developing countries like Vietnam.
In the next phase, all reports submitted by Vietnam to the UNFCCC to meet transparency requirements are compiled, including the National Inventory, Biennial Update Report, and National Communication Additionally, reports on Vietnam's climate mitigation actions from non-governmental organizations are gathered, but only data from national agencies, such as Ministries or the Statistical Office, will be referenced A comparison of the collected data with the previously identified reporting requirements highlights the data gaps outlined in the research objectives.
Expert consultation using Delphi method
The Delphi method is a consultation process designed to achieve consensus among a group of experts on specific issues, making it an effective tool for qualitative group knowledge acquisition Its name is derived from ancient Greece, where the sacred site of Delphi hosted the oracle Pythia, who predicted the future Initially utilized by the RAND Corporation for long-range strategic planning, the Delphi technique has since gained popularity in various academic fields and sectors, including economics, environmental studies, sustainable development, land use, agriculture, transport, and climate change.
The Delphi method is recognized as a systematic approach for gathering expert opinions on specific topics through a series of well-structured questionnaires, which include summarized feedback from previous responses (Chu et al., 2008) This qualitative research technique is valued for its effectiveness in problem-solving, decision-making, and achieving group consensus While the Delphi method can be adapted in various ways, it consistently retains four key features (Habibi et al., 2014).
To prevent dominance in group problem-solving, panel members will remain anonymous to each other After each consultation round, synthesized responses from all experts will be shared anonymously, ensuring unbiased contributions.
The panel of experts will achieve consensus through multiple rounds of consultation, concluding only when an adequate level of agreement is determined.
Controlled feedback and Statistical “group response”: During the iterative consultation process, the level of consensus among experts will be calculated using a pre-
34 defined method such as Kendall’s concordance coefficient or KAMET framework (Hương, C.T.T, 2020) The process will end only when a certain level of consensus is reached
The size of a Delphi panel can vary significantly across studies, with recommendations ranging from a minimum of three to five experts, as noted by Le et al (2015) in their assessment of climate change impacts in Vietnam, to as many as 100 participants in pharmacy research (Meadows et al., 2005) There are no strict guidelines for determining the number of experts, as it largely depends on the specific topic, the complexity of the issues at hand, and available resources It is also advisable for the Delphi panel to comprise individuals with diverse backgrounds related to the topic to ensure comprehensive coverage of the issues from multiple perspectives (Somerville, 2008).
The theoretical framework of Delphi method in qualitative research is illustrated in the diagram below:
Figure 3.1 The theoretical framework of Delphi method in qualitative research
3.2.2 Delphi-based expert consultation design for this research
This research employs a Delphi-based expert consultation to qualitatively assess the enabling factors influencing the implementation of Vietnam's climate commitments The process is structured into eight steps across three stages: before, during, and after the consultation.
Step 1: Selection of the panel of experts
Given the time and network resources available for this research, a panel of 7 experts were selected based on the following criteria:
- Having extensive experiences in climate mitigation in Vietnam in all the key sectors covered in the NDC: Energy, transportation, agriculture & LULUCF, industrial process, and waste and construction
- Having closely involved in the climate policy making process in Vietnam through their roles in both governmental agencies and international development partners
- Have taken different professional positions in both governmental and non- governmental organizations and actively engaged with different stakeholders including state and non-state actors
The criteria guarantee a thorough evaluation of the enabling factors from various sectoral perspectives, with a detailed list of consulted experts available in Annex II of this research.
In-depth interviews with experts were conducted to explore the enabling factors outlined in section 2.1.4, using open-ended questions to establish a comprehensive assessment framework.
Step 3: Development of questionnaire for consultation
A questionnaire developed from the findings in Step 2 employs a 5-point Likert scale to gauge levels of agreement, ranging from "Extremely disagree" to "Extremely agree." The consultation questionnaire is available in Annex I.
Step 4: 1 st round of consultation
The questionnaire was sent separately to the expert for their responses
Step 5: 1 st round’s result analysis
The consensus level among experts is evaluated through the Knowledge Acquisition for Multiple Experts with Time scales (KAMET) method, as outlined by Chu et al (2008) Initially, the agreement levels measured on a 5-point Likert scale are translated into corresponding numeric values of 1 to 5.
At this first round, the values of Rating Mean, Rating median (Md), and Quartile deviation (Q) of each question are calculated, in which:
- The Rating Mean demonstrates the average numeric value corresponding to the level of agreement among the whole panel of experts
- The Rating Median demonstrates the value in the middle of the set of numeric values corresponding to the responses of the whole panel of experts
The quartile deviation is a statistical measure that assesses the variability within the central portion of a data set, indicating its stability Specifically, it highlights the consistency of responses among experts This measure is derived by calculating half the difference between the third quartile and the first quartile values.
At the end of this step, a summarized report of the calculation results is prepared with experts addressed anonymously by respective codes
Step 6: 2 nd round of consultation
The summarized report is distributed to experts for a second round of consultation, during which they are asked to revisit and respond to the questionnaire based on their feedback from the first round.
Step 7: 2 nd round’s result analysis
In this stage, results are computed based on the KAMET rules outlined in Step 5, focusing on the Rating Variant that measures the proportion of experts altering their responses This assessment evaluates the stability and consistency of responses across various rounds, determining whether an additional consultation round is necessary.
When the Quartile Deviation of a specific question is 0.5 or less, and the Rating Variance is 15% or lower, it indicates a consensus among experts, leading to the conclusion of the consultation.
If the Quartile deviation for a specific question exceeds 0.5 or the Rating Variance surpasses 15%, the consultation will proceed with an additional round until these criteria are met.
Step 8: Final results, implications and recommendations
RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Gaps in data for the taking stock of mitigation actions in Vietnam
The challenges of time lag and reporting flexibility under the UNFCCC hinder timely data availability for the ongoing GST, particularly for developing countries This issue is similarly faced at the national level Table 4.1 outlines the various reporting requirements under UNFCCC, detailing the information provided by Vietnam in its submissions and highlighting the discrepancies between these requirements and the reported data The following discussion will focus on the key gaps identified.
Annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories are essential for understanding emission levels and trends, which in turn provide insights into the effectiveness of GHG reduction initiatives and the necessary future efforts The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) established by the UNFCCC mandates that national GHG inventory reports (NIR) include data from the most recent year without delay.
Two years before submission, flexibility allows for a three-year time lag National inventories must be conducted in a time series starting from 1990, or from 2020 for developing countries As a developing nation, Vietnam is required to submit its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR), which includes the national inventory, by 2024 Consequently, Vietnam must complete its inventory for either 2021 or 2022 to meet this deadline.
Vietnam's most recent national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, conducted for the year 2016, reported total GHG emissions and removals of around 317 million tons The accompanying table details the emissions figures categorized by sector.
Table 4.1 GHG emissions/removals of Vietnam 2016 (Source: Vietnam 3 rd BUR, 2020)
Sector CO2 CH4 N20 HFCs Total
So far Vietnam conducted 5 NIR in the year of 2000, 2010, 2014, and 2016 in which the NIR 2014 was used as baseline for its NDC This means that NIR for the years of 2018,
2020 and 2021 need to be urgently conducted to fulfill the reporting requirements and to be used as a base for the development of the NDC 2025
Under the ETF, Parties are mandated to report seven greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) Developing countries have more flexibility, needing to report at least CO2, CH4, and N2O, along with any of the other four gases included in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Additionally, Parties are required to provide information on carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and sulfur oxides (SOx), and may also report indirect CO2 emissions resulting from the combustion of CH4, CO, and NMVOCs in the atmosphere.
Vietnam's National Inventory Report (NIR) currently addresses four greenhouse gases (GHGs) - CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs - which are also part of the country's GHG emission reduction strategies outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) However, three additional gases (PFCs, SF6, and NF3) are absent from these documents While their inclusion is not mandatory, it could enhance the report's comprehensiveness and transparency Notably, SF6, a highly potent GHG used in various sectors, presents opportunities for further emission reduction measures, potentially elevating Vietnam's climate ambitions in future NDC updates.
Level and trend of key categories of sources of emission
Under the ETF, Parties must identify key categories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, ensuring that at least 95% of total national GHG emissions and removals are covered in their National Inventory Report (NIR), with a flexible threshold of 85% in certain cases According to the IPCC 2006 guidelines, Figure 4.1 highlights the categorization of GHG emission sources, indicating that further subcategories are available It is essential to report both the level and trend of emissions for the first and last reporting years within the time series.
For the case of Vietnam, the coverage threshold of 95% was applied for the NIR
As of 2016, the specific levels and trends for each greenhouse gas (GHG) emission category have not been reported To address this gap in the upcoming National Inventory Report (NIR), it is essential to ensure that the national statistical data system is aligned with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines GHG emissions are calculated by multiplying activity data with the corresponding emission factors To facilitate timely reporting of this data across various categories and sub-categories, it must be integrated into the national statistical data system managed by the General Statistics Office, using a methodology consistent with IPCC standards.
Figure 4.1 Top three levels of the IPCC 2006 categorization (Source: Jeffery et al., 2018)
Data to track progress of GHG emission reduction and GHG emission reduction measures in NDC
Under the ETF framework, countries must establish indicators to monitor the progress of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and related measures A minimum of one overarching indicator is mandatory, while additional indicators are recommended to effectively track specific NDC measures This requirement is applicable starting from the designated implementation date.
2024 for developing countries with the submission of the first BTR
For Vietnam, the committed time in its current NDC is from 2021 to 2030 This means that GHG emission reduction became obligatory for Vietnam only from the year of
Since 2021, there has been no assessment or data record on NDC implementation The latest NDC update in 2022 estimates a total GHG emission reduction of approximately 85 million tons (ktCO2eq) for 2020 This includes reductions of 76.5 million tons from the energy sector, 1.5 million tons from agriculture, 11.1 million tons from the LULUCF sector, and 4.06 million tons from mining, construction materials, and chemical industries, totaling 93.16 million tons This discrepancy between the total reduction figures suggests overlapping calculations, highlighting the necessity for a consistent methodology in GHG emission reduction accounting.
In response to the coming reporting requirements, and the need for transparency in general, the NDC tracking system of Vietnam is under development Decree 06/2022/ND-
The CP on mitigating GHG emissions and protecting the ozone layer establishes essential guidelines for reporting and verifying GHG emission reduction measures at both the sectoral level by relevant ministries and the facility level by major emission sources In line with Circular 17/2022/TT-BTNMT issued by MONRE, detailed technical guidelines are being developed by ministries including MOT, MOC, MOIT, and MARD for the waste sector These guidelines form the backbone of Vietnam's national MRV system, which will play a crucial role in monitoring GHG emission reductions once fully implemented.
The SPI-NDC project in Vietnam has proposed annual performance indicators to monitor the progress of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), and transport sectors This proposal also outlines the necessary data availability requirements, serving as a valuable resource for selecting appropriate indicators for tracking NDC actions.
45 indicators to be included in the reporting system for Vietnam, taken into account the necessary adjustments in the national statistical data system
Data and methodologies to assess policies and supporting measures
Policy support measures are crucial for driving the necessary system and behavioral changes needed for effective climate mitigation (Dal et al, 2019) The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) mandates the reporting of information related to actions, policies, and measures that facilitate the implementation and attainment of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) This includes estimates of expected and achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, along with the methodologies and assumptions applied However, Vietnam has not included this critical information in its report to the UNFCCC.
The third BUR of Vietnam highlights the challenges in quantitatively assessing the impact of climate mitigation policies, as GHG emission reductions often stem from a blend of various policies and external factors such as international agreements and market demands Additionally, many of Vietnam's policies do not include specific quantitative targets for mitigation.
Projection of GHG emissions and removals
The ETF mandates that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals must be projected from the most recent National Inventory Report (NIR) year for at least 15 years, concluding in a year ending in zero or five Consequently, for Vietnam's initial Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) due in 2024, projections must cover GHG emissions and removals from 2021, the latest NIR year, through to 2050.
Enabling factors
The assessment of the enabling factors for climate mitigation actions in Vietnam involved a combination of expert consultations using the Delphi method and a survey focusing on private sector engagement The expert consultation reached consensus after three rounds, meeting the established criteria An online survey was conducted from mid-April to mid-May 2023, gathering 40 responses from enterprises, including 17 major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters identified in Decision No 01/2022/QD-TTg, which outlines sectors and facilities subject to GHG inventory and reduction measures.
Viet Nam, as a non-Annex I Party to the UNFCCC, has consistently reported its climate actions under various international agreements, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement The country submitted its initial Biennial Update Report (BUR) in 2014, followed by its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2015 and its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2016, which was updated in 2020 and 2022 Additionally, Viet Nam submitted its second BUR in 2017 and its third National Communication in 2018, culminating in the submission of its National Inventory Report (NIR) and third BUR in 2021.
Table 4.3 Reports submitted by Vietnam under UNFCCC transparency framework
BUR 1 st in 2014 / 2 nd in 2017 / 3 rd in 2021
NDC 2016 / 1 st updated in 2020 / 2 nd updated in 2022
In a 2021 assessment of state compliance with multilateral climate transparency requirements, Weikmans et al evaluated countries' adherence to the UNFCCC reporting standards The findings included a score for Vietnam, along with other leading GHG emitters among non-Annex I Parties, as detailed in the table extracted from the assessment, highlighting the BUR Transparency Adherence Indices.
Table 4.4 BUR Transparency Adherence Index (top 20 GHG emitters among non-
Annex I Parties) (Weikmans et al., 2021)
Vietnam's ranking improved from 71 to 78 in the reporting of its second Biennial Update Report (BUR), indicating progress in its capacity to align with technical analysis guidelines Despite this advancement, there remains room for enhancement, and achieving a perfect score of 100, similar to India's notable increase in its reporting, serves as a valuable benchmark for Vietnam to aspire to in future submissions.
Accessibility of reported information to various stakeholders:
Transparency in accessing information about climate mitigation strategies in Vietnam is critically low Expert consultations reveal that state actors have a mean accessibility rating of only 2.29, indicating a poor to acceptable level on a 5-point Likert scale There is a strong consensus among experts regarding this assessment, as evidenced by the minimal deviation from the median value of 2 In contrast, non-state actors fare even worse, with an average rating of 1.86, categorized as very poor to poor Notably, a 14% variation in opinions between the second and third rounds of consultation suggests that experts adjusted their views after considering peer insights.
Vietnam, like many developing countries, is in the early stages of fulfilling its climate mitigation reporting obligations under the UNFCCC transparency framework The reports submitted have relied on international technical support and short-term assistance projects, lacking a structured reporting system Consequently, the information is gathered from diverse sources and formatted in a way that is not easily accessible to key stakeholders, including sub-national authorities, civil society organizations, and the private sector While climate mitigation is a prevalent topic in public discussions, Vietnam's commitments, specific targets, and their implications for the economy and daily life have not been effectively communicated to businesses and the broader public.
Regarding the agenda setting, two questions are put forward for discussion The first is how highly the government prioritizes climate mitigation And secondly, how diverse
A recent expert consultation involving 55 stakeholders, both state and non-state, indicates that climate mitigation is viewed as a moderate to high priority in Vietnam's political agenda, with a mean rating of 3.71 on a 5-point scale This rating reflects a strong consensus among experts, evidenced by the small quartile deviation of 0.25 Notably, two experts increased their ratings from 3 to 4 in the second round, citing the government's recent approval of the Power Development Plan for 2021-2030 (PDP8) in May 2023 and subsequent policy dialogues as positive signals of progress.
Vietnam has demonstrated a strong commitment to climate action by announcing its ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 This pledge includes coal phase-out and methane emission reduction, supported by an updated National Strategy on Climate Change, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43.5% by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario Additionally, Vietnam has joined South Africa and Indonesia in the Just Energy Transition Partnership, focusing on unlocking financial resources for a sustainable energy transition These significant political commitments have garnered praise from both the international community and national stakeholders.
A recent private sector survey revealed that 82.5% of respondents ranked climate change response among the top five priorities for the Government of Vietnam, following Economic Development at 92.5% This underscores the experts' assertion that climate mitigation is a significant focus on the government's political agenda, a sentiment recognized by various stakeholders.
The second aspect of coherence in climate action is the connection between climate mitigation targets and wider development goals Expert consultations indicate that there is a notable synergy between climate mitigation efforts and broader development objectives in Vietnam, highlighting the importance of integrated approaches for achieving sustainable progress.
56 is 3.00 0 (level 3 – moderate on the 5-point Likert scale) Changes in results throughout the
3 rounds of consultation and the quartile deviation 0 5 at the end shows the difference in experts’ points of view
Vietnam, being highly vulnerable to climate change, faces an urgent need for climate adaptation while also striving to decarbonize its economy to align with global trends and development goals The shift towards a low-carbon economy is evident in global supply chains, multinational corporations, and consumer behaviors, with major markets like the European Union considering carbon border fees Several multinational companies operating in Vietnam are committed to decarbonizing their production processes in the near future To maintain its competitive edge, Vietnam must transition to cleaner energy sources and implement sustainable practices in agriculture, transportation, and industrial production Additionally, failure to address greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels will worsen air pollution, negatively impacting public health and productivity.
Experts agree on the necessity of integrating climate mitigation with broader development goals to drive transformative changes in Vietnam; however, there is a divergence in opinions regarding their actual linkage within the national agenda Some experts believe that the synergy is minimal, as climate mitigation efforts are insufficiently reflected in socio-economic development strategies and plans The Socio-Economic Development Strategy (SEDS) serves as the primary policy framework guiding development across various sectors and government levels in Vietnam for the next decade Additionally, the SEDS is prioritized within the five-year Socio-Economic Development Plans (SEDP) The current SEDS 2021-2030 aims for a 9% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, while the SEDP 2021-2025, approved by the National Assembly, does not establish any specific GHG reduction targets, highlighting a lack of cohesive strategy in addressing climate change within national development planning.
The reduction of carbon intensity in the economy is significantly influenced by the contributions of the processing and manufacturing sectors, as well as the digital economy, which collectively account for over 25% and approximately 20% of GDP, respectively (National Assembly, Resolution, 2021).
Regarding policy coordination, two aspects are taken into account: (1) how climate mitigation strategy is mainstreamed into sectoral and sub-national strategies and plans; and
(2) how the implementation is coordinated among stakeholders
Expert consultations indicate that Vietnam's climate mitigation commitments and strategies are moderately integrated into sectoral plans, with an average rating of 2.14 on a 5-point Likert scale The quartile deviation of 0 reflects a strong consensus among experts regarding this assessment.
Vietnam's climate change policy landscape is characterized by a complex array of laws, strategies, and action plans with overlapping timelines While all line ministries are mandated to integrate climate change considerations into their long-term strategies, these plans primarily serve as directional guides rather than legally binding frameworks To establish effective budget allocation and accountability mechanisms, it is essential to develop laws and sub-law documents, such as decrees and circulars Key sectoral regulations include energy labeling and consumption limits from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, urban green growth indicators from the Ministry of Construction, and vehicle energy labeling along with CO2 emissions regulations from the Ministry of Transport However, many existing decisions lack robust legal enforcement power, limiting their effectiveness in addressing climate change.
Recommendations
This article presents key recommendations for enhancing climate mitigation actions in Vietnam, focusing on three critical areas: addressing data gaps, strengthening the enabling factors for climate initiatives, and increasing private sector engagement in climate action These suggestions are framed within the context of Vietnam's legally binding commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which officially began in 2021.
The research highlights significant data gaps in assessing Vietnam's climate mitigation efforts, emphasizing six critical areas: the absence of national inventory reports for 2018, 2020, and 2021; unreported greenhouse gases in the national inventory; insufficient data on emission sources' levels and trends; lack of information to monitor progress on GHG reduction and measures outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC); inadequate data and methodologies for evaluating policies and support measures; and the need for projections of GHG emissions and removals.
To address the existing gap, it is crucial to fully operationalize the national MRV system as mandated by Decree 06/2022/ND-CP without delay The third BUR indicated that this MRV system would be finalized by 2021, but this deadline has now lapsed Therefore, it is essential for ministries to urgently issue detailed technical guidelines and officially launch the online tool currently in development.
To track the NDC targets using indicators as required under ETF, the selection of the appropriate indicators for both the whole progress and those of individual measure or
The 69 sector requires careful consideration due to the significance of its indicators and the necessity for timely data availability in both the short and long term Consequently, the statistical data system must be appropriately adjusted to meet these requirements.
Accurately projecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals is essential under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) The fair distribution of contributions towards achieving the Paris Agreement (PA) goals has sparked ongoing global debate Various organizations are independently assessing countries' contributions, yielding differing conclusions based on their methodologies For instance, the Climate Action Tracker indicates that Vietnam's latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) are insufficient, which could undermine the country's climate efforts Therefore, it is highly recommended to develop projection tools that can officially demonstrate the alignment of Vietnam's climate mitigation targets with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The research highlights key factors that facilitate climate mitigation actions in Vietnam, focusing on transparency, coherence, and implementability The findings, summarized in Figure 5.1, are derived from expert consultations conducted through the Delphi method, specifically addressing the first two groups of factors: transparency and coherence.
Figure 4.8 Consolidated results of expert consultation on the two enabling factors of transparency and coherence
Vietnam faces challenges in transparency regarding climate mitigation strategies, as access to information for both state and non-state actors is limited The country’s commitments and concrete targets, along with their implications for the economy and daily life, are not effectively communicated to key stakeholders, particularly businesses and the general public To address this issue, it is essential to implement awareness-raising campaigns and enhance communication about Vietnam’s climate goals through diverse media channels Additionally, reports submitted to the UNFCCC should be shared with stakeholders and the public in concise, easy-to-understand formats.
Research indicates that climate mitigation is a top priority on the Government's political agenda and is positively received by various stakeholders However, there is a noticeable disconnect between climate mitigation efforts and broader development goals, as these initiatives are not adequately integrated into the socio-economic framework.
To enhance national climate mitigation efforts, it is crucial to incorporate these targets into the Social Economic Development 10-year strategy (SEDS) and the 5-year plan (SEDP) Additionally, climate mitigation should be integrated into sectoral strategies, establishing clear sector-specific targets and ensuring adequate budget allocation Effective cross-sector and multi-organizational coordination at both central and provincial levels is essential, which can be achieved through collaborative actions among various ministries and departments Regular and systematic information exchange regarding the planning and implementation of targets in the areas of climate change, green growth, and sustainable development will further support these initiatives.
The implementation of climate finance tracking systems is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of fund allocation for climate change responses in Vietnam Additionally, to bolster private investment in climate mitigation, it is essential to urgently establish a comprehensive framework for public-private collaboration, alongside regulations for green bonds, loans, and climate risk insurance tools This framework should incorporate flexible mechanisms to swiftly adapt to global financial changes and streamline institutional processes to expedite the enforcement of legal regulations.
The research highlights significant barriers to technology transfer in Vietnam, noting that technology accumulation varies across sectors This variation necessitates tailored strategies to effectively address these challenges Consequently, it is recommended that future studies build upon these findings by considering the unique difficulties faced within specific sectors, ultimately leading to customized recommendations that align with the distinct context of each sector.
Current research indicates that international development partners are the primary source of support for capacity building in climate mitigation efforts in Vietnam To ensure the success of these initiatives, it is crucial to align local needs with the objectives of the supporters Therefore, conducting need assessments and designing capacity building activities based on these assessments is recommended within the framework of technical assistance projects funded by international development partners.
4.4.3 Enhancing the engagement of the private sector
The private sector is a key player in climate mitigation efforts in Vietnam, significantly influencing the nation's climate goals A recent survey indicates that businesses recognize climate mitigation as a government priority and an essential trend across various sectors However, many companies face challenges due to limited access to relevant information To improve their effectiveness in climate actions, it is crucial to enhance information sharing and raise awareness within the business community.
Survey respondents indicate that there is significant potential for enhanced climate mitigation efforts through business-level initiatives in Vietnam To leverage this potential and bolster the country's climate targets, it is essential to conduct sectoral dialogues aimed at identifying opportunities and fostering collaboration to strengthen actions across various sectors.
Respondents provided several suggestions to promote climate mitigation actions, emphasizing the need for improved transparency and coherence Additionally, they recommended regular training for businesses on legal climate mitigation requirements and fostering collaboration among international organizations, sector associations, local authorities, and businesses This cooperation aims to enhance knowledge, create co-benefits, and reduce the risks associated with climate action.