20% wind energy by 2030 pot

WindeneUalon Experiences and Stoies 1 412 Power System Studies Conclude that 20% Wind Energy Penetration Can Be Realy Accommodatd m 4.13 Wind Turbine Technology Advancements Improve Sim

(GRATEFUL APPRECIATION TO PARTNERS

‘The U.S, Deparment of Energy woud Ike 9 acknowiedge the indepth analysand extensive researen conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratary and the major conibutons and manuscript views by the Amencan Wind Eneray Assoraton and many wind Indust organizations the conbtled tothe production this port The costs curves for energy supply options andthe WnDS modeling

‘assumptons wete developed in cooperation with Black & Veatch The preparation of this technical report was coordinated by Energetics Incorporated of Washington, DC land Renewable Energy Consuling Senices, Inc of Palo Alo, CA All authors and Feviewers who contibutd othe preparation ofthe report are fetod in Append D

Nomice

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Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to

U.S Electricity Supply

‘DoE 102008-2867 «July 2008, Mes ifrmaton i avalbe on he web at

nw er aera ovncansvero iin el ooh Ooo 650 pt

Table of Contents

Chapter 1, Executive Summary & Overview

1.1 Introduction and Collaborative Apprond '

12.4 Pace of New Wind Installations 2 1.3 Impacts, =

LẠI Greenhouse Gas Redetions

V32 Water Conservation

13.3 Energy Securit and Stabilis

VBA Costofthe 20% Wind Seonario 1%

224 Wind Technology Development 28

2.26 Current Status of Turbine Componens 30

23 Technology Improvements on the Horizon

23.1 Future Improtements to Turbine Components

2.53 Technology Needs and Potential Inprovemenss m

26 Distributed Wind Technology

261 Small Turbine Technology

2.62 Technology Trends

27 Summary of Wind Technology Development Needs

28 References and Other Suggested Reading

Chapter 3 Manufacturing, Mater

3.41 Raw Materials Requirements

32 Manufacturing Capability

ls, and Resoure

S21 Current Mansfaturing Facies 6

522 Ramping Up Energy Industries “

33 Labor Requirements

33.1 Mainaining and Expanding Relevant Technical Suenath 70

34 Challenges to 20% Wind Energy by 2030

341 Challenges

3S- References and Other Suggested Reading

Chapter 4, Transmission and Integration into the U.S

411 WindeneUalon Experiences and Stoies 1

412 Power System Studies Conclude that 20% Wind Energy

Penetration Can Be Realy Accommodatd m 4.13 Wind Turbine Technology Advancements Improve Sim

4.14 Wind Forecasting Enhances System Operation 86 AILS) Flewible, Dispatchable Generators Feiiate Wind Integration 86 4.16 Integrating an Energy Resouree in a Capacity World 87 4.17 Aguregation Reduces Variability 89 ALLS Geograph Dispersion Reduces Operational Impacts 0

419 Large Balancing Areas Reduce lnpacts 31 A110 Balancing Markets Ease Wind integration 2 ALI Changing Load Paucmns Can Complement Wind Geaseation 93

42 ity and Cost of the New Transmission Infrastructure

Required For the 20% Wind Scenario,

42.1 ANew Transmission Superhighway System Would Be

422 Overcoming Barer 0 Transmission Investment oN

423 Making a Naional Investment in Transmission i

43 US Power System Operations and Market Structure

Evolution =

43.1 Expanding Market Flewbiis mì

432 Enhaneing WindForscading and Systm Flos too

101

44 References and Other Suggested Neading

Chapter 5 Wind Power and Environmental

S21 Global Climate Change and Caron Reductions

522 Improving Human Healh through Reduced Air Emissions 108

552 Slate and Federal

‘56 Addressing Environmental and Siting Challenges

S61 Expand Publie-Privae Partnerships

562 Expand Outreach and Education

5463 Coordinate Land-Use Planning

5.7 Prospects for Offshore Wind Energy Projects in the United

States and Insights from Europe

Findings and Conclusions

58

59

Chapter 6, Wind Power Markets

6.41 US Market Evolution Background

62 US Bleetricity Market

621 Floste Uliies

633 Federal Agencies

623 Power Markcung Adminisrations 16

624 Compliance, Volumary and Emissions Markets 6

63 Wind Power Applications

G31 Large-Seale Wind Power Plans

Appendix A 20% Wind Scenario Impact

AU Introduction

A2 Methodology h

A241 Ensgt Generation Technoloyis

À2 Transmission and ftegration

‘23 Quantification of impacts

A3- Wind Capacity Supply Curves

A-4 Tmmpaet

AT References & Suggested Further Reading

Appendix B Assumptions Used for Wind Deployment

B31 Wind Resource Definition 75,

B333 WinDS Seasonal and Diurnal Capacity Faete Caeultions 1T B34 Wind Technology Cost and Performance m B44 Comentional Generation

Bail Conventional Generation Cow and Performance 1

B6 Treatment of Resource Variability 189 B17 Federal and State Energy Policy 191 B71 Federal Emission Slandards tr B72 Federal Enray Incentives pm B73 State Energy Incentives i B74 State Renewable Potoio Standards mà

BS Electricity Sector Direct Cost Caleutatio

BO References & Suggested Further Reading

List of Figures

Figur 1-1 Report caper, 4 Figure 1-2 Cumulaive US wind ape by yea 5 Fite 1-3, Required growth in USS, capacity (GW oieylemem ‘ts Wind Seni te 7 Figure 1-4 Anal nd cumulaie wind istallaions by 2030 7 Figure 15 Supply curve for wind onery—cusnt busbar ener C08 8 Figur 1-6 Soply eure for wind emery —enegy costing comectono 10% of exiting tata ideas

Figur 1-7 20% cumulat installed wind power apa roi >

‘illion mewie ons by 2030 s igue I-13,CO; enieiens lo the electiiy sector 1s Figure 1-14 National wate savings fom the 20% Wind Scenario, 7 Figure 1-15, Incromental investment cos of 20% wind is modest: a

Figure 2-1 The wing resource potential at 0 m above ground on and and

installed within the lst 10 yeas for thecal years of operation (Wiser and Bolinger 2007) 34 Figure 2-10 Curvature-bsod twist coupling, 36 Figure 2-1 Twis-lap coupled bade design (material-based twist

Figure 2-12 Clipper Windpower multiple-drive-pah gearbox 3 Figure 2-13 Cost of wind trbines delivered from Spain betwen 1984 and

Figure 2-14 Unplanned epsr eos key souress, and sk of

Failure wih ind plant age A Figure 2-15 Average ORM costs of wind farms inthe United States 45 Figure 2-16 Blade growth and startup dates for U.S, blade test facilites 47 Figure 2-17, Types of repairs on wind tubines fiom 2SkW 0 1S MW 57 Figure 3-1 a, Annual installed wind energy’ capacity to mest 20% of eneray

‘dmand b Cumulaive installed wind energy eapact 0

Figure 3-4 Projected percentage of 22-vear-olds with bachelors degre

sonee and engineering trough 2080 n Figur 4 Houtly Toad shapes with and without wind generation 9 Figure 4-2 Time scales for gr operations 40 Figure 43 Impact of win on load-following requirements 4 Figure 4-4 GE turbine fequeney response 1 Figure 4-5 Vestas wind tuins conol sapabiliy KỈ Figure 46 GE wind plant contols ss Figure 4-7 Impact of wind generation on stom dynamic performance 88 Figure 48 Annual hourly eapacity factor ot Figure 9 Annual transmission investments from 1975 through 1999 and

projections through 215, 94 Figu 4:16 Conesptusl new transmission fine scenario by WinDS region 96

Figur 411 Cumulative savings versus toa wansmision eos oe

enable energy Z0n2 (ost css)

Figure $1 Eleticiy production is responsible for 39% of CO: emissions

inthe United States Figure $-2 Anthropogenic causes of bit mortality

Figure 5-3 Lincar decison stratcay (command and contol and interactive

‘ode with adaptive management pranciples Figure $4 Decibel eves of various situations

Figure 55 Actions support 20% wind ener by 2030

Figure G- US wind ener capacity growth (shown in megawatts [MW]) slowed during yeas when the PTC expired Figure A-l Prescribed annual wind technology generation asa psreent of

‘atonal letriity demand from Laxson, Hand and Bh (206) and coresponng annual wind capacity

‘nstaaion for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model Figure A-2, Supply euve for wind energy—eurentbus-bar ence eos

Figure A- Supply curve for wind energy: ener costs including

‘connection 10% of existing Uansmission pid capacity Figure A-l, Comulatve installed wind power capacity required to produce

20% of projected electricity by 2030 Figure A, 20% Wind Sesnaro electri generation mix 2000-2030,

Figure A-6, Generation by technology in 2030

Figure A-7 Capacity by technology in 2030,

Figure A-8 Cumlatie earbon emission reductions abuted to wind

‘enenay (compared to expanding the generation mis

‘without wind energy) Figure A Fuel usage and savings resting ffem 20% Wind Scenario

Figure A-I0, Projected wind capacity installations in 2012

Figure A-IL Projected wind capacity installations in 2018

Figure A-12 Projected wind capacity installations in 2024

Figure A-3 Projected wind eapaity installations in 2030

Figure A-I, Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission

ine projected for 20 Figure AS Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission

ines projected for 2018 Figure A-16, Transport of wind energy over existing and now wansmission|

ines pojeted for 2024 Figure A-I7 Transport of wind energy ver existing and new eansmission

Ines projected for 2080

Figure A-I8 Ditet electricity sector costs fr 20% Wind Scenario and no-

rowWind Secnavio, Figure A-I9, Annual water consumption savings duet deployment

‘of wind ener

Figure B-1 WinDS regions

Figure B-2, Wind region and Balancing Areas in WinDS base case

Figure -3, Nasional lad duration curve for base yearn WinDS

Figure 8-4, Projected coal and natural ens prices in WinDS to 2030,

ng

us

ut

bs rey

Hệ

150

150 Ist

170

in

mm Hữ

Figure B-S, Distnes betwen wind sites and eorelatio with power output

Figure C-1 Prescribed annua wind technology seneration a a percentage

fof national electricity demand from Lasson Hand, and

‘lair (2006) and corespending annual wind capacity installation for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model Figure C-2, Winds economic ippleeffel

Figure C3 Annual det indict and induced economic impact rom

20% scenario

Figure C- Total economic impacts of 20% wind energy by 2030 om a

relative basis Figure C5, Potential manufaturing jobs eeated by 2030

Figure C-6,Direet manufacturing, construction, and operations jobs

supported by the 20% Wind Seenaro Figure C-7, obs pr year fom dre, indies, and induced eategvis

Figure C-8 Jobs and economic impacts by NERC region,

List of Tables

Areas of potential tchnology improvement

‘Main components and materials used in @ wind turbine (2),

‘Yeauly 15 materials estimate (housands of mete on),

Table 33, Locations of US wind turbine component manufaturers

Table 34, US Manufacturing fms with tchniel potential to enter wind

ne component market

‘Table 3.5, Toyota Nom America vehicle production and sales

‘Wind tecnology-rlatedsdustional programs around the United States ody

‘Wind integration costs in the US,

Table 4-2, Methods to estimate wind capacity valu in he United States,

‘Table 4-3 Midest ISO plant capacity factor by fuel type June 2005-May

200)

‘Table 4-4, Wind generation variably sa fanetion ofthe number of

‘sonora atime interval Table $1, Estimated water savings from wind ence in the intcrior West

(Baum etal 2003)

‘able 5.2, Estimated avin fatalities per megawatt per year

Table S.3, Stats ofofshore wind energy applications in state and federal

Table A-1, Assumptions used for scenario analysis

‘Table A-2 Distribution of wind capacity on existing and ne transmission

Tines Table A-3 Doe lett: sector costs for 20% Wind Scenario and No

‘New Wind Ssonaro (USS2006) Table A-4 Inremenal direct cost of achieving 20% wind, excluding certain

102

163 lót

Table A.6.US sates, by rion

“able B- Baseline financial assumptions

Table B-2 NERC regions used in WinDS

Table B-3, WinDS demand time-slieedefinisons

‘able B-4 Bas load and load growth inthe WinDS scenario,

Table B-S National capacity requirements inthe WinDS base ease

‘Table B6, Peak reserve margin

Table B-7, Classes of wind power density

‘Table B-, Dat sources for land-based wind resource and environmental

‘Table B-12, General assumptions for coaventonal generation echnologes

‘Table B-13, Cost and performance characterises for conventional

seneration (USS2006)

‘Table B-L4, National SO: emission mit schedule in WinDS

Table B-15, Fedral renewable energy incentives

‘Table B-16 State renewable energy incentives

‘Table B-17 tate RPS requirements as of August 2008

Table C-1 JEDI wind modeling assumptions

‘Table C-2 Wind plant expenditure data summary (in million)

‘Table C3, US, consinction-elat economic impacts fom 20% wind,

Table C-4, US operationsscated cconomie impacts from 20% wind

ut v8

203

204

205 205

Abbreviations and Acronyms

AEO _AmMual Eheng' OulooE

‘AEP ‘Amencan Elec Power

AGATE Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments

Acc automatic generation control

ALA, ‘Ameniean Lang Assocation

AMA “American Medical Associaton

ADL ‘American Petolvm Insitute

APPA, “American Public Power Assocation

ATTU Annual Turbine Technology Update

AWEA American Wind Eneray Assocation

AWST AWS Truewind

BACI bofre-and-aferconta impact

Berkeley Lab Lawrence Berksley National Laboratory

BLM Bureau of Land Management

BPA Bonnetill Pousr Administaion

BSH Bundesant fr Seschifat und Hydrographic

BTM BTM Consult ApS

Bu Bish thermal unit

BWEC Batand Wind Energy Cooperative

caa (Clean Air Act

CAI Cleon Air Inersiate Role

CAISO Califia Independent System Operator

CAMR Clean Air Mercury Rule

GapX 2020 Capacity Expansion Plan fr 2020,

cao Congressional Budget Oee

CDEAC Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Commas

CEC (California Encray Commission

CEQA California Environmental Quality Act

CESA (Clean Energy States Alines

cr capacity factor

Cran ‘eatbon lamenteginarced pladie

(NV Califia Nevada

catbon dexide integrated gasification combined eye coal plants now pulverized coal plants

‘commercial operation date

cor cost of ene

CREZ Conpeiite Renewsbls Energy Zanes

cr ‘ombustion turbine

an Aocibels

DEA Danish Eneray’ Authorisy

ĐEIS raft envionmestal impact statement

pop US Deparment of Defense

DOE US Department of Energy

Dol US Department of interior

Dwr disnibued wind technology

Ba ee

US Environmental Protection Agency Energy Policy Aet

‘ngincering procurement and construction Electric Power Research Insite

Eletrie Reliability Count of Texas Electric Reliability Organization European Union|

Energy Unlimited Ine Ewopean Wind Energy Association Federal Aviation Administration fleible AC transmission system Final environmental impact report Federal Encrey Regulatory Commission Florida

Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Fallime equivalent

sigawatt signvatt-hour bình sơạe inpedanee-lonlins (tonsnieion line) highevolage dice euren

han Intemational Energy Ageney Intemational Eletotechnical Commission Institut of Elcncal and Electronics Engineers integrated gasification combined cycle

invesorovned wii Tniergoveramenal Panel on Climate Change integrated resource planing

Teste for Solar Energy Technology (stu Rr Sone Energiversorgungstecnik}

independent system operator

Square Kilometers ilove

Silowatt Silewat-hour pound leveized cost load duration curve Tight detetion and ranging Limited Liability Company Tigefid natal gas loss of oad probability

Square meter Mid-Atlantic Area Counc

“Moditod Accelerated Cos Recovery System [MidsAmercan nreannected Network Mid-Continent Area Power Pool

“Migyest Independent Sst Operator nillion British thermal units

Minerals Management Service millon mere ton of erbon equivalent Minnesota Department of Commerce Memorandum of Understanding Midwest Reliability: Organization MISO Transmission Expansion Plan segavolt amperes

megawatt mgawatt-hour smegawattsnie

Nonh American lus Classification System National Academy of Seienees

National Center for Atmospheric Research National Commission on Energy Polis Now England

‘National Enersy Modeling System

‘National Environmental Polly Act Nonh American Electric Reliability Corporation| Nonheast States for Coordinated Air Use Management nongovernmental organizations

rail mile

"National Oecane and Atmospheric Administration nate oF intent

nitrogen oxides Northeast Power Coordinating Council

et present value Bina 5

National Resoareh Coane

‘National Rural Eleewie Cooperative Assocation National Renewable Ener Laboratory

National Seence and Technology Council

‘National Wind Coordinating Collaborative [National Wile Federation

National Weather Service New York

‘New Yotk dependent System Operator [New York State Energy Research and Development Autor

Office of Management and Budget

Da

Porland General Electric Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection Power Marketing Adminstration

Publi Service Company of New Mexico poin of interconnection

poster purchase agreement Paget Sound Enerey production tas erat Publi Utty Commission Publi Ulity Regulatory Poicss Act qualifying or qualified file

reszarch and desclopment Rocky Mountain Area restareh, development & demonstration fenewable energy erdit

Renewable Enea) Production Inceaive Renowable Eneray Policy Project Reliabilisy Fest Corporation

Regional Greenhouse Gas Iiitive Rocky Mountain Area Transmssion Sty Renewable Portfolio Standards

Repinal Transmission Organization

National Laboratories supervisory conrl and data acquisition Strategic Energy Analysis Cetcr Southsaste Power Administration Southeastern Electric Reliability Cound salfur hexafluoride (one of sx greenhouse gases deified in the Kyoto Preiocol)

sion erbide sulfur diode sonic delsdien and ranging

Union for he Co-ordination of Transmission of Eleticity

UK Encray: Research Centre

US Army Comps of Engincers

US Climate Action Parinership

US Deparment of Agriculture

US Department of Agriculture Forest Service

US Fish @ Wildlife Service

US Geological Survey ality Wind Integration Group volt

voltampere-eactive watt

‘Westem EeoSyslems Teetnology Westem Area Power Adminisuation (formerly WAPA) Wester Climate Initiative

Westem Eleticiy Coordinating Council

\Westem Goverors’ Assocation

— Wind Eneray Deployment System Mods!

Wind Partnerships for Advanced Component Technology

‘Wind Powering Anserica

‘Westem Resource Advocates

\Westem Regional Climate Action Wilde Workgroup ive

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

& Overview

1.1 _ INTRODUCTION AND COLLABORATIVE APPROACH

Enrey prices supply uncertinics, and

ciecdotaccrae: [eatge eee

tnldscop avevesucesotszan, | Wind Energy Provides 20% of SE” lùa ecely Nets 2090

can be cost-effective and replaced or CẢ “© Does the nation have sufficient wind energy —

ae What ae the wind technology requirements?

+ Docs sulficiont manufacturing capability exist? What are some ofthe key impacts?

Can the electric network aeeommodate 20% wind?

‘What ae the environmental impacts?

12006, President Bush emphasized the

nation’s nd fr greater energy

efficiency and amore diversified energy

portfolio This led toa cllaberatve

effort to explore a modeled eneey «Is he scenario fesible?

Scenario in which wind provides 20% of

USS electricity by 2030 Membersof Assessment Participants:

this 20% Wind collaborative (2° 20% | ts, eparimen of Energy (DOE)

Wad Seeearin cba} prodiced i ot oma c mg sieu = Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Otfee of Fleinty elmer and Pno

¬¬ `ˆ n6 (OB) and Poet arcing

4.20% Wind Sean Me in 203 whe ; ~ National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) đà BI HUẾ MA)

ambitious, could be Feasible if the

significamt challenges identified in this Treo Ti cee bieorov (berboer

report are overcome ~ Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) ra

‘This pon was prepared by DOE ina» Black & Veatch engineering snd consltng frm Jointeffon with industy, government, | _ American Wind Energy Assocation (AWEA)

fd he nation’s national eboraties

(primarily the National Renewable

Ener Laboratory and Lawrence

Berkeley National Laborato) The

report considers some associated

challenges, estimates te impacts, and discusses specie needs and outcomes in the

seas of technology, manufaetring and omploy men, ansmision and grid

iteration, markets, sing states, and potential environmental efees associated

with 20% Wind Scenario,

~ Leading wind manufacturers and supplies

~ Developers and cect tities

© Others in the wind industry

Inits Annual Energy Outlook 2007, the US Energy Information Administration

(EIA) estimates tht U.S electricity demand wil prow by 39% fom 2005 to 2030,

reaching 58 billion meyawatchous (MWR) by 2030 To mect 20% ofthat demand,

US wind power espacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawats (GW) or

‘mote than 500,000 megawatts (MW) This grovih eprescns an increase of more than 290 GW within 23 years"

The data analysis and move uns for this report were concluded in mid-2007, All data and information in the report are based on wind ata available through the end

‘of 2006, Atthat ime the US wind power eet numbered 11.6 GW and spanned 34 States, In 2007, 5.244 MW of now wind generation wore installed" With these

‘Mditions, American wind plant are expected to generate an estimated 48 billion {lowatt-sours (kWh) of wind enceay in 2008, more than 1% of US electricity supp This eapacity addition of 5244 MWV in 207 exessds the more conseraive sromth uajctary developed forthe 20% Wind Sesnano af abeut 4.000 MWear in

2007 and 2008 The wind industry is on wack to grow te asze capable of installing 16,00 MWe, consistent with he ater ears nthe 20% Wind Seenario, more quickly than the trajectory used fr this analysis

‘sssumpions in the analsis have boon highlighted throughout the document and have been summarized n the appendices These assumptions may be considered

‘optimistic In this report no sensitivity analyses have been dane to estimate the

‘mmpat that changes inthe assumptions would have onthe information prescited hoe As summarized atthe end af this chapter, the anal sis provides an overview of some ptenil impacts ofthese two sesnarios by 2030, This report doesnot

compare the Wind Seenario to other energy porialio options nor does it outline an section plan

‘To successflly address energy gi; and environmental ses the nation nosds

te purse a portfolio fener options, Nose of toss optons by ise ea fll saves these issues there isn "silo ble” This tehnicl report examines one Potential seonario in which wind ower serves asa significant clement in the

Ponfoio However, the 20° Wind Seonaro isnot a prediction ofthe fate Tastcad

"pains a picture of what pariular 20% Wind Scenario could mean forthe

"A so 2007 were ai heer AED lene ow aa in Mach oS wih were sii tnt oh Sale psc ite TC

"Aconigo ANI 2107 Nat Rp aan 208, eS indy ny nid

‘senda ead mae thn doting he aon of 3454 MAE Concrete {alate 0 aloe woe tse at eset as wen

14/2 CONIRIBUTORS

‘Report contributors include abroad

cross section of key stakcholders

imeluding leaders from the nation’s

tality stor environmental

omunitios, wilde advocacy

groups, nergy indus, thề

government and poli sets,

tnxestrs, and public and private

businesses In al the reper refeeE

Input from more than S0 key enerey

staksholder organizations and

opoations Appendis D contains 2

listo eotributors Research snd

‘modeling was condcted by exports

‘sth the electric indy

sovernment, and other organizations

‘This reponis not an authoritative

expression of poiey perspectives

‘opinions held by representatives of

DOE

4.1.3 ASSUMPTIONS ANO

PROCESS

‘To establish the groundwork fortis

report the engineering company

‘Black & Veatch (Overland Park,

Kansas) analyzed the market

potential for significant wind enerey

froth, quantified the penal US,

‘sind supp, and developed cost

Supp curves foe the wind resource

Tn consltation with DOE, NREL

AWWEA, and wind industry pater,

aur wind enery cost and

perfomance projections were

Aeveloped Similar projections for

conventional generation technologies

were developed based on Black &

‘Veatch exporience with poser plant

design and constuction (Black &

Veatch 2007),

To identify a range of challenges

possible slutions, and key impacts

lof providing 20% of the nation's

‘ecrcty fom wind he

akoholdesin the 20% Wind

Seenaro effort convened export ask

Toreos to examine specie eas

TSnmmemyT

‘Wind Energy Deployment System Model

‘Assumptions (See Appendices A and B) + The asumtos ed forte WaDS made ete bie! fom & seme of sures fing cma eae Gee pens Dy ae {Was bse case (Dena Shr 208), AFO 2007 ELA 20D) and sty performed by lack Veh (207) These

mn nn psa asa pe rưm

‘invests faton egg lato wine Sinai Sis nd pj prow te fr nd

Tu birech2fevisl cmogy ty 350

A able evonment Spires prs alent wind

~ Hime at seman che lo tose ple aC npn et s cosmogenic wth mo ae [oth eeens 1210

— Teiwelet cai pdlunaectuefboe as lla cee expen and opraton snp hat as he dest

‘pone oncmens Ista 1) Asses th cpl et wl bee se peste 205 ewe A

‘nae you ss erent oa 1 ean a heh eran a pe

ur nonmetal sue ptt oie ot enc cor win ttt

ol el tno sos and efmance a gel at Ngle coy co relation ae expec by 20 (ees daniel,

et Relay Corton NERC) reponse temansion aqui dd or pete eons 23 od

‘Ash the conto US ety mpi om ter

rita this endeavor: Technology and Applications, Manufacturing and

‘Materials, Environmental and Siting Impacts, Electricity Markos, Transmission and Integration, and Supporting Analysis These teams conducted indepth analyses of potential impact, using related studies and varus analytic tools to examine the benefits and cos (See Appendix D forthe task free participants)

\NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) mode!” was employed to erate a scenario thal psn picture" of this level of wind energy generation and evaluates Some impacis associated with wind Assumptions about te future ofthe US

‘lecve generation and wansmission sector Were developed in consultation with the {ask Fores and other patos Some assompions in this analysis could be considered

‘optimistic Examples of assumptions used inthis analysis are listed inthe “Wind Encrey Deployment System Modsl Assumpuions” txt box anda prescacd in etal im Appendices A and B For comparison, the modeling team contrasted the 20% Wind Scenario impacts toa reference case characterized by no growth in US

‘vind capacity or oer renewable eneray source aller 2006,

Inthe course ofthe 20% Wind Scenario proces, two workshops were held to define and fefine the work plan, present and discuss preliminary resus, and oblain relevant Input from key stakeholders extemal to he rept preparation effort

1.1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE

‘The 20% Wind Scenario in 2030 would require improved turbine technology to generate wind power, significant changes in transmission systems o deliver it {ough he eletie grid, and large expanded markets to porchase and sei tn turn, these essential changes in the ower generation and delivery process would involve supporuing changes and capabiics in manufacturing, policy development, and nvironmenal regulation As shown in Figure I- the chapters ofthis report adress Some of the requirments and impacts in cach ofthese areas Detailed dscusions of the modeling process assumplions and rẻelt ean be found in Appendices A through C

Figure 1-1, Report chapters

he mode Aoelgelỹ NHI Seg ty Are Cae SEAC) nde attest

‘nepal mre nese tothe pentane econ te ec

‘tread tons mtn te cl nt Fp ent

ise TT

1.1.5 - SETTINGTHECONTEXT:TODAY'S U.8 WIND INDUSTRY

[After experiencing strong growth inthe mid-1980s, he US wind indus hit a

plateau during he clctcty restructuring pri in the 1990s and then regained

‘momentum in 1999, Industry grovih has since responded positively to policy

incemtves when they are in effet sce Figure 1-2) Today the US wind industry is

‘growing rapidly, driven by sustained produetion ax exes (PTC), rising concerns

shout climate change, and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or goa in roughly

50% ofthe sats,

Sibi peau Figure 12, Cumulative U8 wind capady by

improved performance, and sass KP

thee cons av eget

contin (ee ianes 10

ingot Wind Tare Ferran dba) 2006

fle stra aut

inereed by more tan

over th 205 ll oa Srerge sie of 16 Nn

sien merge pay

Fer have improved 1% °

over nys en ous To Pree re

inet the prong demand for xi mem UỆ Inaufatshne expanded thir caaciy pod ch vn hán hán nd assemble he esenial

Components Despite powih US sono conic ores a lately

Sul sa ofl ube and overated and U.S mamancures ae

Smiling hep pcs withing demand (Wiser & Bemeer 207)

Initiatives to Improve Wind Turbine Performance

‘Avoid probloms before instalation

Improve relibility of turbines and components + Fullscale testing prior to commercial introduction

» Development of appropriate design eiteria,speciiations, and standards

«© Validation of design tools

Monitor performance

+ Monitor and evaluate turbine and wind-plant performance

* Performance tacking by independent patios

_

lentfieation of problems Rapid deployment of problem resolution

+ Develop and communicate problem solutions

+ Pocused aeiviies with takcholders to addres crtial issues c g, Gearbox

Reliability Cllaberatve)

In 2005 and 2006, the Unite States led the world in new, in Índlades, Bị carly 2007, plobal wind power eapaciyexezeded 74 GWW, and US wind power apacity toiled 11.6 GW This domestic wand power hasbeen installed across 38 Snes and delivers oughly 0.8% ofthe electricity consumed i the nation (Wiser

‘nd Bolinger 2007

ABrief History of the U.S Wind Industry

‘The US, wind industry gots startin California during the 1970s, when the ol shortage Increased the price of electricity generated frm ol The Califoraia wind indusy Denied fom federal and tte ITC aswell as state-mandated standard wilt contacts tha

uarantsd a aistaclory markt pie for wind power By 1986, California had installed

‘more than 12 GW of wind pow representing neatly 90% of global installations at hat time Epiration ofthe federal ITC in 1985 and the California incentive in 1986 rowel the groxth ofthe U.S wind eneray industry to an abrupt ali the mid-1980s, Europe took the lead in

‘wind enor, propelled by aguessive renewable energy polices enacted between 1974 and

1985, As the global industry continued o grow into the 1990s, echnological advances led to significant increases in urbe power and productivity Turbines installed in 1998 had an sverage capacity 7 to 10 times greater than that ofthe 19805 turbines, and the price of wind- s2neratedcleeticity dropped by nearly 8% (AWEA 2007), By 2000, Europe had more than 12,000 MW of installed wind power versus only 2.500 MW in the United States, and Grmany became the new ineratonal leader

‘With Jo natural gas prices and US utes preoeupied

by indus restvetring during the 19%, the federal Enorgy Policy Act of production tax credit PTC) enacted in 1992 (a pat ofthe 1992

Encrey Policy Act [EPAct) di ite to foster new wind

installations unl just befor is expiration in June 1999 The PTC gave power

‘Nearly 7000 MW of new wind generation were installed in the ‘producers 1.5 cents

Heisew beretc di cgi cử mơ han many previous |= anally with

Tron pero since INS, Alert PTC expe in 199, |, flan) Eraen

itwns xed foci bret prods, ending tn 2003 {ovat-hour (of iiwas hen ented ina 0, Ah i clecncty roduced

incrmiten poy spp et sportepowth, bisnss | om wind daring he inefficient nr in serving th choppy mart

inhibited investment and restrained market growth operation,

‘To promote renewable energy’ systems, many states began requiring clectriity suppliers to bain a small percentage of thei supply from renewable energy sources, with pereenlages spiel ineresing over ime, Withfowa and Texas lang the wa, more thsh 20 sates have followed suit with RPSs, creating an environment for stable growth

Ace a decade of wailing Germany and Spain, the United States reestablished itself asthe

‘word eadr in new wind energy in 200, This resurgence i atiibuted to increasingly

"Supportive polices, growing intrest in renevable enery and continued improvements in

‘vind technology and performance The Unite Slates retained its leadership of wind

development in 2006 and, because ofits very large wind resources, likely to remain a major force inthe highly competitive wind markets ofthe fare

1.2 _ SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

‘The 20% Wind Scenario presented here would require U.S wind power capacity to

row from 11.6 GW in 2006 to more than 300 GW over the next 23 vers (se Figure 1-3), This ambitious growth could be achieved im many diferent ways with

‘varying challenges impacts and Figure 1-3 Required growth in levels of sucess The 20% Wind

US capacity (GW}to implement te Seonaro would quire an installation

20% Wind Scenario ‘ate of 16 GW per year ater 2018

an (se Fe I-l) The ray

examines one paricular secnario far schieving this dramatic growth and

‘contrasts to another scenario that—

For analyte simplicis—assumes no

‘wind growth after 2006, The ahors recognize that US, wind capacity i farently growing rapidly although

“i ‘om a ver small base) and that wind

ae ca =-= energy technology will be a part of

any future electricity generation

Seema forthe United Stats AL the Same mega del oF nein

‘smn about the lve f contrition thst wind could ik oma nthe

207 Ana ergy Oot (EIA 2007 nao GW beyond th 106

inated apa of 11.6 GW is orcas y 2030" Other organs ae

feojling higher capacity addons, and woul edie deelop amos,

Tích” feccas ghen tao Smeeriindes The amdlois sen hc sidteps

the unceaniss and cons samc of th challenss abd impels of producns

2A? ofthe nation's less fom wind with a scenario which osdionl

vind added after 206 This resale an esbimals cxprzed i ems of

oramsers ofthe mpl associated with increased reliance oni ney

feneraton under ngh maunptons Figure 1-4 Annual and cumulative wind installations by 2030

‘The anabsis was als simplified by =

assuming hat he

Contributions o US

electro amplies

from ahor ronowahle sarees of

the would remain

corfu fined to FEISS LSE LPP SS

provide a base of ‘cami GW tad Ca i) Ant nna PA)

Imre tri Se ew EA dtc change psc ern so

‘eat mạc hor menage he ee

Bia eg 5

common assumptions for detailed analysis ofall impact areas Broadly stated, this 20% sconario is designed te consider incremental costs while recognizing liste

‘onsrants and considerations (see the "Considerations in the 20% Wind Scenario”

‘idcbar in Appendix A) Specially the scenario desenesthe mix of wind

resources that would need to be caplrcd the geographic dsinbution of wind power installations, estimated land need, the required ily and tansmission

infrastructure, manufacturing requirements, an te pace of growth that would be

1.2.1 WNOGEOSRAPHY

‘The United States posseses abundant wind resources As shown in Figure 1-5, curent “busbar” encray costs for wind (based on cost ofthe wind plant only excluding transmission and integration costs andthe PTC) vary by type of location {land-based or offshore) and by cast of wind poser density (higher elassos of grater productivity) Transmission and integration wll add addtional costs, which are discussed in Chapter 4 The mation hes more than 8.000 GW of avaiable land- base wind resources (Black & Veatch 2007) that industry estimates ean be captured cconomically NREL periodically classifies wind resources by wind speed, which orm the bass ofthe Black & Veatch study, See Appendix B fr further details

Eleetiely mus be transmitted ffom where itis generated to arcas of high electricity demand, using the existing transmission system or new transmission lines where rnocessry As shown in Figure 16, the delivered cost of wind power increases when

«oss associated with connecting 0 the exsing electric grid are inelude The sssumptions used in thi epot ae diferent than EIA's assumptions and ae

‘documented in Appendices A and B, The co and performance assumptions of the 20% Wind Scenario ae based on ral market data hom 2007 Con and performance Tra technologies either decrease or remain flat overtime, The data sugest thal ae

wind energy—current bus-bar energy costs

Figure 1-6, Supply curve for wind energy—energy costs including

‘Connection to 10% of existing transmission grid capacity

tot b Keeo sim cicDgvthoo Man S20 medwmdieerce

such as 60 GW of wind resources could be availble Fr $60 to $100 per

‘megawatt-hour (MWh), including the cos of connecting tothe existing transmission

stem Including the PTC reduces the cost by about S20/MWh, and costs are further

reduced i twehnologs improvements in cas and performance ae projected In some

eas, new transmission lines connecting hih-wvind resouree areas to load centers

ould be eosteffective, and in olor cass, high wansmssin casts could ast the

‘vantage of land-based generation, asin the case of large demand centers along,

—

"NREL's WúnDS mod:lsaimated the cyenllU S, generation capacity expansion

thats required to meet projected electricity demand erowdh through 2030, Both

‘wind tehnologs and conventional generation technology (i, coal nuclear) were

Included inthe modeling, but other renewables were not included Readers should

refer to Appendices A and B wo see a mare complete ist of the modeling

sssumpions Wind eneray’ development fo the 20% Wind Scenario optinized the

‘otal delivered costs, ncloding ature reductions in cost per kilowatchou for wind

‘tes both near to and remote from demand sits from 2000 trough 2030 Chapter 2

presents additonal discussion of wind tchnology potential Of the 293 GW that

‘would be added, the model specifies more than 50 GW of offshore wind enersy (see

Figure 1-7), mosty along the northeastern and southeastern seaboard

The nodig seuaylsueprtsilelauuel xin cong penern ees ted 2% of

Rey opts tit vont tips gow etry werent td ranma at

‘Sn ey snot egies beri vn pow es at wo pent

RR

ee

Figure 1-7 20% cumulative installed wind power capacity required to Based on this Ieas-cost,

produce 20% of projected electricity by 2030 ‘optimization algoritn

(shih incorporates ature cost per klowatt- hour of wind and cost of transmission), the

|WinDS mode estimated the wind capacity needed

by state by 2050 As shown in Figue 1-8,

‘ost states would have the opportunity to develop the ind resources Total land requirements te extensive, but only about

20 208 2H to 5% of the total

‘would be dedicated

#Ofehơe gLandbsrse snticl to the vinể

Installation In additon, the visual impacts and ther sing concems of wind energy’ projects must be taken

‘nto account in assessing land requirement Chapter 5 contains additonal discussion

of land use and viel impacts, Again, the 2% Wind Scenario presented here snot

‘prediction Figure I-¥ simply shows one wa in which a 20% wind future could tohe

200

1.2.2 WIND POWER TRANSMISSION AND INTEGRATION

Development of 293 GW of now wind egpaciy would equite expanding the US,

transmission rin a manne that nt only accesses the best wind resource regions

ofthe country but also relives curent congestion onthe grid, including new

transmission lines to deliver wind power to lectricity consumers Figure 1-9

‘oneepuslly states the optimized use of wind resourees within the led areas a8

‘sella the tansmission of wind- generated cletety fom highsresoures ates 10

high-demand enters Ths data was generated by the WinDS model given

preserbed constrains) The igre does nt represent proposal fer specific

Figure 1-10 displays wansmision nocd inthe form of one tebnically feasible

ltansmisson grid as 4765 KV overlay A complete diseussion of wansmission issues

am be found in Chapter 4

Uni recently, concems had been prevalent in the electric utility sector about he

Aificulty and cost of dealing with the variability and uncertainty of enery

vodclon from wind plants and other weather driven renewable technologies Bul

tubltyenginers in some pats of the United States now have extensive experience

‘with wind plant impacts, and their analyses ofthese impacts have helped to reduce

these eoncerms, As discussed in dealin Chapter 4, wind’s vara is being

accommodated, and given optimistic assumptions tudes sugges the cos impact

could beas litle asthe current fevel—10% less ofthe value ofthe wind energy

senerated

Ra

ie

‘The 20% Wind Scenario would require delivery of nearly 1.16 billion MWh of wind ery in 2030 allesing US eletieity generation as shown in Figure 1-11 In this Seenario, wind would suppl enough energy to dspace abou 5% of electri tity aural gas eoasumpion and 18% of coal coasumption by 2030, This amounts to an 11% reduction n natural gas arose all industries, (Gas-ired generation would probably be displaced fs, because iypically has a higher east)

Figure 111 US electrical energy mix

my

“The increased wind development in this Scenario could reduce the need for new coal and combined evel natural gas capacity but would inrease the

‘ced for ational combustion turbine natural gos capacity to maintain electric system reliability

‘These units though, weuld be run only as needed.”

1.24 PACE OF New Wino

INSTALLATIONS

‘Manufacturing capacity would rquie time to

‘amp up enough to support rapid grow in new

US wind installations The 2% Wind Seenrio

‘estimates that he installation rate would need to

"Appi pesca fl aio gente apy ia eegy gna te

increase fom instaling 3 GW per year

in 2006 to more than 16 GW per sear | Wind vs Traditional Electricity Generation

by 2018 and wo continue at oughly that

rat though 2030, seen in Wind power avoids several ofthe negative effects of Figure I This increase in instalation | traditional electricity generation from fossi fuels:

rate, although git lang

(Girl the Fecne aul + Emissions of mercury or other heaey metals into the air insalation rate of natural gas units, | Emissions associated with exacting and transporting which totfed more than 16 GW ia fuels

2005 alone (ELA 2005), «Lake and seeambed aidiestion from aiden or

‘The assumptions ofthe 20% Wind can

Scenuto fom the foundation forthe |» Waler consumption associated with mining or cecrcty technical analyses presented inthe senerliom

remaining chapters This overview is_| + Production oftoxie solid wastes, sh, or shrry

provided as context forthe poienal | Greenhouse eas (GHG) emissions

Ipposts and technical challenges

<iseused in the neM seeions

1.3 IMPACTS

‘Tae 20% Wind Scenario presented

hore offers potentials positive impacts

20% Wind Scenario: Projected Impacts

+ Environment: Avoids air pollution and reduces GHG emissions: redueseletie setor CO: emission by

inter of resmhouse os (CH

Ieductns nar cochauee, and | $25milion mete ons anally

cong eorty ssccopueliie te cực of mo wind growth inthis |e Waeven kas: oncareeyee dletie stor by #9 (lion ellen) eet ue analysis However tapping this + US, caery cenriy: Divers eerily pontlio fesure at thislevel would ena lạc yd eresens an indgenows energy sure wih sable froncend capital mesincns ost wind eapacity and expanded prgee nr aiet toe sla

Hranamision ystems, The impacts

<deserbed inthis section ate based «= Energy consumers: Potentially reduces demand for fossil fuels, in tun educing fel prices and siablizing Targly’on the anal tial tools and eisaicly niet

methodology discussed in detail ia» ‘Loeal economies: Creates new income source fo uta Appendices A,B, and C landowners and tax rvenves for local communis ia

wind development areas

‘Wind power would be acritical part of American workers: Generates wel-paying jobs in

abroad and near-erm svatees to Sectors that suport wind devslopment such 38

Substanally reduce ar plltion water” manufacrins engineering constuction, vansporation Pollan, and soba elimate change $d inane sen ces nes manufacturing wl ease sociated with eadiionl generation iecnoogics sce "Wind vs signifeant growth in wind indy supply hain (ce z

“raionl eect Geneon ee)

sidebar) Asa domesc ens

Fesouc, wind power would also

able and diversify ntionleneraysupplis

1.3.1 GREENHOUSE Gas REDUCTIONS

Supphsing 2096 of US elcrmieny from wind could reduce annual etre sector

carbon dlxide (C05 emissions by 825 millon meine tons by 2030

Ba ne

“Thẻ ve ofclinile chang andthe

20% Wind Scenario: Major Challenges owing ateation paid oi are helping

{© poston wind power as an + Inesinent in he nation’s wansmission system so that increasingly alracive option for new the power generated is delivered io ban centers that power generation U.S clectieiy need the inreased suppl Amand is erowing apd and lance

«Largs let toad balancing ares in andem with power souees renewable ener)

better regional planing so that regions can depend oa aad enevgy saving practices (ie eneray divers of generation sources, including wind power, eMiieney) could help meet much ofthe Continued rection in wind capital costs and

‘improvement in urbine performance through technology

‘Mvancement and improved manufacturing capabilites:

row demand while educing GHG

‘missions Todas, wind enceay represents approximately 35% of ew capacity additions (AWEA 2009)

= Adảreeing potential concerns about leasing presents an opportunity for reducing wildlife, and environmental issues within the context of isons today a the maton develops

CConczens about climate change have spurred many industries, policy makers,

‘nvironmentliss, and ulities teal for reductions in GHG emissions Although the cost of reducing emissions is uncertain, the most affordable neattem sieae ey likely involves wider deplorment of currently available energy efficiency and clan

‘nergy technologies Wind power is one of the potential Supps-side soins tothe elimateehange problem GHG Reduction (S0esloụ anđ Paela 2006),

Unier the 209 Wiw Seenaio,s Governments at many levels have enacted policies to cumulative total of 7.600 million actively suppor clean elecrcty generation, inching the netic tos of CO: emissions would renowable energy PTC and state RPS A growing number

bb avoided by 2030, and more than ofeneray and environmental organizations are calling for 15,000 milion mete tons of CO: ‘expand wind and ober renewable power deployment cmisions would be avoided through ty toredce society's carbon footprint

‘completed fr this repr, generaing 20% of US clectriety trom wind could avoid approximately $25 milion metic tons of COsemisions in the clecce sector in

2050, The 20% Wind Scenario would aso reduce cumulative caissons from the

‘oete sector trough that same yea by mors than 7,600 million mote tons of CO: {2,100 milion metre tons of carbon equivalent)” See Figures [12 and 1-13 In

‘eneral, CO; emission reductions ae not only a wind energy benefit bat could be schieved under other energy-mis scenarios

‘The Fourth Assessment Report ofthe United Nations Environment Program and

‘Werk Meteorological Orgnition sIntergovernmenial Panel on Climate Change {APCC) notes that "Renewable energy generally has a postive effect on enerey

"GO camera cto uae y mliphing by I, Appr A pen rain ceflonsiu Vi CO: Bese itssaness Nghe se of se pet he abs eel pcr ahr CO; eno an the A nel

Figure 1-12 Annual CO; emissions avolded (vertical bars)

‘Would reach 826 milion metric tons by 2030

Because wind turbines peal havea serie life of at least 20 years and transmission lines can lst more than 50 yeas, investments in achicving 20% wind power by 2030 could continue wo supply clean ener through atleast 2080 Asa

‘esul the cumulative climate change impact of achieving 20% wind power could {row to more than 18.0 milion meric tons of CO emissions avoid by mide ena (4.182 millon mete tons of eibon equialen)

‘The 20% Wind Scenario constructed here would displace a significant amount of {ossil fel genoration, According tothe WinDS model, by 2030, nd generation is proceed ta displace 50% oflcctricty generated fom natural sa8 and 18% ofthat enented frm coal The displacement of coal is of particular interest because it provides a comparatively higher earbon emissions reduction opportunity Recognizing that coal power will continu to play a major rle i future electricity generation, a large ierease in total wind capacity could potentially defer the need to tui some new coal eapaity avoiding oF postponing the associated nereases in

«arbon emissions Cutent DOE projections antepate constuction of approximately

140 GW of new coal plan eapeits by 2030 (EIA 2007); the 20% Wind Scenario could avoid construeton of more thai 80 GW of nes coal capaci”

‘Wind ener that displaces fosi ful generation can aso help meet existing regulations fr emission of convcational pllutams,inluding sulfur dioxide nitrogen oxides, and mercury

1.3.2 WATER CONSERVATION

‘The 20% scenaro would potentially reduce cumlattve wot consumption in the leer sector By 8% (or 4 eilion gallons) jrom 2007 through 2030 significantly reducing water consumpiton nthe ard states of the interior West fn 2030, annual

‘water consumprion in the eecric sector would be reduced bp 17%

‘Water seareity isa signfiant problem in many parts of he

Wind Reduces Vulnerability | United States Even so, few USS eitiens realize that

leeticiy genertion eeounl for neatly 50% ofall water CConsinucd reliance on natural ạa for | idea alsin te nation, with gation withdrawals new power gencraion is likely to put coming in cond a 34% (USGS 2005) Wales used for the United Stats in growing the cooling oF natural p35, coal, and nuclear powerplants

‘competition in world markets for ‘nds an ncresing pat ofthe challenge in devsloping those Tigueied natural gas (LNG)—some of | resources,

which will come ffom Russia, Qatar,

an, and otber nations in essthan-_Aldhough a sinifcant portion ofthe water withdrawn for stabi regions eewieity production i eeycled back ưough the system

approximately 2% 10 3% ofthe water withdrawn is

‘consumed though evaporative losses Ev this smal raeton ads up tò approximately 16 16 17 ulin gallons of water eoasuned for powcr generation

‘ath year

As ational wind generation displaces fossil fuel generation, cach megavat-hour

“generated by wind could save a8 mich 38600 gallons of water that would ethene

a ie pce et 0 ind oN Wi Se

‘igus sdSon ys clined soi Ue ee fr cont eteraton echlogy Ge Appa A

Figure 1-14, National water savings from the 20% Wind Scenario

450 bilion gallos This savings would reduce the expected snnval water

‘consumption for eletriet generation in 2030 by 17% The projected water savings

fe dependent on a future generation mis, which is discussed furtirin Appendix A Based on the WinDS modslng results carly 30% ofthe projected water savings fom the 20% Wind Scenario would occur in wesem states, where water resources

ae paicularly scarce The Western Governors Association (WGA highlights his

‘concer nits Clean and Diversified Energy Iniatve, which recognizes inereased water consumption a5 a hey challenge in seeommodating rapid growth in electricity cđemand Ta le 2006 report on water needs the WGA sates that "iil polite

*hoices wil be necessary regarding fue economie and ensironmenal uses of

‘water andthe best way to encourage the orderly transition to a net equilumy (WGA 2006),

1.3.3 ENERGY SECURITY ANO STABILITY

‘Thee is broad and growing recognition that the nation should diversify its energy potfli so tata supply distption fetng a single energy’ souree will not

Significantly disupt the national economy Developing domestic ener s0urees

‘with Known and stable costs would sigaiicandy nove US, enor’ stability and

When electric ulti have a Power Purchase Agreement or own wind twbines, the price of encrgy is expected to remain lately lat and predictable forthe ie of the

‘vind project, given that there are no fil costs and assuming thai the machines are

‘vel maintained In contrast arg part of the eos of coal and gas-fired electricity

|S he fel for which prices ae often volatile and unpredictable Fuel price risks reduce security and stability fr US, manufacturers and onsunetS, as well as for the US economy asa whole Even small rdutions inthe amount of eneres

{valle or changes inthe price of ful ean cause large eonomie disruptions arose the nation This capacity to disrupt was clearly ilusratcd by the 1973 embargo imposed by the Oreanization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (ihe "Arab ot cenbargo" the 2000-211 California clesrcty market problems and the gasoline

5S Apent A or osc stone

nd natu yas shortages and pice spikes that followed the 2005 hursicane damage tool efiney and natural gs provessng facilities along the Gulf Coast,

Using wind enery increases security’ and stabil by diversifying the national cleeticis portfolio Just as those investing fr retirement are advised to diversify invesmens across companies, sectors and stocks and bonds, diversification of lecticis supplies helps dsirbute the risks and stabilize rates for electric

Wind ener reduces eliance on foreign ence’ sources fom politically unstable regions As a domestic eeray soues, Wind requites no imported fal, and the turbine componcns ean be either preduced on US sil or imported rom any fiendly- nation with production capabilities

Ener security coneems forthe eletrie industry wl kel increase inthe

foreseeable future as naural gas continues tobe leading suree of new generation suppl With declining domestic natural gas sourees, future natural gas supplies are expected 0 come in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imponted oa tanker ships US impons of LNG could quadruple by 2030 EIA 2007) Almost 60% of

‘uncommitted natural sa5 reserves are in ran, Qatar and Russia These counties along with others in the Middle East are expected to be major suppliers tothe global LNG market Actions by those sources can disupt intational eneray matkes and ths hae indirect adverse effects on or economy Adon risks aie frm competition for these resources caused by the growing energy demands of China, India and oer developing nations According tothe WinDS model results, under the 20% Wind Seonaro, wind energy’ ould displace approximaoly 11% of nate

235 consumpuion, which is equivalent a 60% of expected LNG imports in 2030."

‘This displacement would dee the nation's ners vuleraibi Lo uncertain aural gas supplis See Appendix A Tor gas demand reduction assumptions and ealelintone

‘eniance national energy security by inreasing energy diversity and pice sabi

1.3.4 Cosr OF THE 20% WIND SCENARIO

‘The overall economic cos ofthe 20% Wind Scenario scenes mainly fom the ineremental costs of wind energy relative to ater generation sources, This is

ced by the assumptions behind the scenai, listed in Table AI Also, some Inrementltansmission would be requied to coanet wind w the elacte power

‘stom, This uansmission investment woud be in addition to the signiieant,

Investment in te elec arid tha will be nesded to serve continuing load growth, whatever the mix of news generation The market ast of wind ners) remains higher than that of conventional enersy sources in many area aross he county In

‘ation, the tansmisson gid would have tobe expanded and upgraded in wind- Fich areas and aross the existing system wo deliver wind ener to many demand ners A integrated approach to expanding the transmission system would need to Include furnishing acess to wind resources as Well as mceting gtr system ced,

Compal coating ie taro ELN 207), in inset

Compared to other generation soures, te 20% Wind Seenari9entl higher initial

capital costs (Lo instal wind capacity and associated wansmission infrastuctre) in

‘many areas yet offers loser ongoing energy costs for operations, maininance, and

fuel Given the optimistic cost and performance assumptions of wand and

Figure 115, Incremental Investment cost of 20% wind is modest;

conventional enor sources (detailed in Appendix B), the 20% Wind Scenario

‘ould require an incremental mvestment of as hile as $45 blon nt present valve

(NPV) more than the base-ease senaro volving no new wind power generation

(No New Wind Scenario) This would represent less than 0.16 esnts (6 one-

Fnundredths of | cen) pr hilsatchour of tol generation by 200, or roaghly 80

ons per month per houschad.Figue I-15 shows this cost comparison The base-

ease costs are calulaed unde the assumption of no major changes in ful

‘svalability of environmental restrictions In this sendro, the cost diferential would

be about 2% ofa total NPV expenditure exezeding $2 tnlion,

‘This analysis is intended to iden the incremental cos of pursuing he 208% Wind

Seenario.Inesions where the capital costs ofthe 20% Wind Scenario exceed these

‘of building litle or no addtional wind eapaciy, the operating casi and benefits discussed earlier, For example, even though the diferent could be offset by

Figure 1-5 shows that under optimistic assumptions, the 20% Wind Seonario could

Imerease teal capital costs by nearly $197 bili, most of those costs would be

offset by the near $155 billion in deceased fuel expenditures, resulting na ct

incremental cost of approximatsly $43 billion in NPV These monetary costs donot

reflect other potential ofesting postive ampact

As estimated by the NREL WinDS model, given optimise assumptions the specific

‘oof te proposed transmission expansion forthe 20% Wind Scenario i $20

billion in NPV The actalrequied grid investment could also involve signiicant

cots for pemmiting delay’, construction of gd extensions to remote areas with

‘wind resourees, and investnents in advanced grid cons, integration, and taining

to enable regional load Balancing of wind sources

‘The total insted costs for wind plants include costs associated with siting and

pormitng of these plans I has become clear that rnd power expansion would

a

ie

roquire care, logical, and fat-based consideration of foal and enironmental concerns, allowing siting issues to be addressed within abroad sk framework Experience in many resions has shown that this canbe done, but efficient,

streamlined procedures will kel be needed to coable installation rates nthe range

of 16 GW per year Chapter Scorers these issues in more detail,

‘would involve a major national commitment to clean domestic energy’ sources with

‘minimal emissions of GHGs and other enironmentl pollutants

1.5 REFERENCES AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING

AEP 2007 Inverstave Transmission Vision for Wind Imegrotion, American Blectie Poser Transmission

Fup asp comisouvi76Speojectechnialpapsrs asp

AWEA 2007 American Wind Energy’ Assocation Web sie, Oct 1, 2007

‘ypivnw ance orefsgcos hư

[AWEA 2008 2007 Market Report January 2008

nip: awea orrojelepd Market Repon_Jan08 pd,

[lack & Veatch 2007 Twenty Percent Wind Energy Peneroton in th Unit

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