#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG : #KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP 7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG +6/LP0=0DW-DIUL.$EGXOODKDQG&-:RQJ 5HPRWHVHQVLQJKDVEHHQZLGHO\XVHGIRUHQYLURQP
Trang 1#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
:
#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP 7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
+6/LP0=0DW-DIUL.$EGXOODKDQG&-:RQJ
5HPRWHVHQVLQJKDVEHHQZLGHO\XVHGIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODSSOLFDWLRQVXFKDVIRUDLUTXDOLW\DQGZDWHUTXDOLW\VWXGLHV%XWWKHDWPRVSKHUHDIIHFWVVDWHOOLWHLPDJHVRIWKH(DUWK·VVXUIDFHLQWKHVRODUVSHFWUXP6RWKHVLJQDOREVHUYHE\WKHVDWHOOLWHVHQVRUZDVWKHVXPRIWKHHIIHFWVIURPWKHJURXQGDQGDWPRVSKHUH7URSRVSKHULFDHURVROVDFWWRVLJQLILFDQWO\DOWHUWKH(DUWK·VUDGLDWLRQ EXGJHW EXW TXDQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH FKDQJH LQ UDGLDWLRQ LV GLIILFXOW EHFDXVHDWPRVSKHULF DHURVRO GLVWULEXWLRQV YDU\ JUHDWO\ LQ W\SH VL]H VSDFH DQG WLPH 3HQQHU HW DO
6XUIDFHUHIOHFWDQFHLVDNH\WRWKHUHWULHYDORIDWPRVSKHULFFRPSRQHQWVIURPUHPRWHO\VHQVHG GDWD 2SWLFDO DWPRVSKHULF HIIHFWV PD\ LQIOXHQFH WKH VLJQDO PHDVXUHG E\ D UHPRWH
Trang 2
VHQVRULQWZRZD\VUDGLRPHWULFDOO\DQGJHRPHWULFDOO\7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKH\FDQPRGLI\WKHVLJQDO·VLQWHQVLW\WKURXJKVFDWWHULQJRUDEVRUSWLRQSURFHVVHVDQGLWVGLUHFWLRQE\UHIUDFWLRQ6LIDNLVDQG'HVFKDPSV
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
%HIRUH
Trang 3#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
D6RXUFHYLQFHQWFKRZ
6RXUFH7KH'LJLWDO$ZDNHQLQJ+D]HLQ3HQDQJ
$IWHU
%HIRUH
Trang 4
E6RXUFH7KH'LJLWDO$ZDNHQLQJ+D]HLQ3HQDQJ8SGDWHDP
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
$IWHU
Trang 5#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
)LJ5HPRWHVHQVLQJLQVWUXPHQW-HQVHQ
7KHUHDUHWZREDVLFW\SHVRIVHQVRUVSDVVLYHDQGDFWLYHVHQVRUV)LJXUH3DVVLYHUHPRWHVHQVRUV GHWHFW UHIOHFWHG HQHUJ\ IURP WKH VXQ EDFN WR WKH VHQVRU WKH\ GR QRW HPLW HQHUJ\LWVHOI%XWDFWLYHVHQVRUVFDQHPLWHQHUJ\RUSURYLGHLWVRZQVRXUFHRIHQHUJ\DQGGHWHFWWKHUHIOHFWHGHQHUJ\EDFNIURPWKHWDUJHW
Trang 65VWF[#TGC
7KHVWXG\DUHDLVWKH3HQDQJ,VODQG0DOD\VLDORFDWHGZLWKLQODWLWXGHVR·1WRR·1DQG ORQJLWXGHV R · ( WR R · ( 7KH PDS RI WKH VWXG\ DUHD LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 3HQDQJ ,VODQG LV ORFDWHG LQ HTXDWRULDO UHJLRQ DQG HQMR\V D ZDUP HTXDWRULDO ZHDWKHU WKHZKROH \HDU 7KHUHIRUH LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR JHW WKH FORXG IUHH VDWHOOLWH LPDJH RYHU3HQDQJ,VODQG%XWWKHVDWHOOLWHLPDJHFKRVHQLVOHVVWKDQRIFORXGFRYHUDJHRYHUWKHVWXG\DUHD3HQDQJ,VODQGORFDWHGRQWKHQRUWKZHVWFRDVWRI3HQLQVXODU0DOD\VLD
3HQDQJLVRQHRIWKHVWDWHVRIWKH0DOD\VLDDQGWKHVHFRQGVPDOOHVWVWDWHLQ0DOD\VLDDIWHU3HUOLV 7KH VWDWH LV JHRJUDSKLFDOO\ GLYLGHG LQWR WZR GLIIHUHQW HQWLWLHV 3HQDQJ ,VODQG RU
´3XODX3LQDQJµLQ0DOD\/DQJXDJHDQGDSRUWLRQRIPDLQODQGFDOOHG´6HEHUDQJ3HUDLµLQ0DOD\/DQJXDJH3HQDQJ,VODQGLVDQLVODQGRIVTXDUHNLORPHWUHVORFDWHGLQWKH6WUDLWVRI0DODFFD DQG ´6HEHUDQJ 3HUDLµ LV D QDUURZ KLQWHUODQG RI VTXDUH NLORPHWUHV 3HQDQJ
Trang 7#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
:LNLSHGLD 7KH LVODQG DQG WKH PDLQODQG DUH OLQNHG E\ WKH NP ORQJ 3HQDQJ
%ULGJHDQGIHUU\
3HQDQJ,VODQGLVSUHGRPLQDQWO\KLOO\WHUUDLQWKHKLJKHVWSRLQWEHLQJ:HVWHUQ+LOOSDUWRI3HQDQJ +LOO DW PHWUHV DERYH VHD OHYHO 7KH WHUUDLQ FRQVLVWV RI FRDVWDO SODLQVKLOOVDQGPRXQWDLQV 7KH FRDVWDO SODLQV DUH QDUURZ WKH PRVW H[WHQVLYH RI ZKLFK LV LQ WKH QRUWKHDVWZKLFKIRUPVDWULDQJXODUSURPRQWRU\ZKHUH*HRUJH7RZQWKHVWDWHFDSLWDOLVVLWXDWHG7KHWRSRJUDSK\ RI ´6HEHUDQJ 3HUDLµ LV PRVWO\ IODW %XWWHUZRUWK WKH PDLQ WRZQ LQ ´6HEHUDQJ3HUDLµOLHVDORQJWKH´3HUDLµ5LYHUHVWXDU\DQGIDFHV*HRUJH7RZQDWDGLVWDQFHRINPPLOHVDFURVVWKHFKDQQHOWRWKHHDVW3HQDQJ:LNLSHGLD
7KH3HQDQJ,VODQGFOLPDWHLVWURSLFDODQGLWLVKRWDQGKXPLGWKURXJKRXWWKH\HDUZLWKWKHDYHUDJH PHDQ GDLO\ WHPSHUDWXUH RI DERXW R& DQG PHDQ GDLO\ PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXPWHPSHUDWXUH UDQJLQJ EHWZHHQ R& DQG R& UHVSHFWLYHO\ +RZHYHU WKH LQGLYLGXDOH[WUHPHVDUHR&DQGR&UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHPHDQGDLO\KXPLGLW\YDULHVEHWZHHQDQG 7KH DYHUDJH DQQXDO UDLQIDOO LV DERXW FP DQG FDQ EH DV KLJK DV FP)DX]LDKHWDO
)LJ7KHVWXG\DUHD
Trang 8)LJ/DQGVDW6DWHOOLWH70
U U U
3 5
P P
W
4
Trang 9#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
: H DVVXPH WKDW WKH DWPRVS KHULF UHIOHFWDQFH GXH WR S DUWLFOH 5D LV DOVR OLQHDU ZLWK WKH ǕD
>.LQJHWDODQG)XNXVKLPDHWDO@7KLVDVVXPSWLRQLVYDOLGEHFDXVH/LXHWDODOVRIRXQGWKHOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQERWKDHURVRODQGPROHFXOHVFDWWHULQJ
Y V
D D D
3 5
P P
W
4
5DWP 5D5U
:KHUH
Y V
U U Y V
D D DWP
3 3
5
P P
W P P
W
P P
Trang 10
V
U U
P P
Y V
P P
P P
Y V
P P
Y V
5
5DGLDQFH/nj %LDVnj>*DLQnj['1nj@
ZKHUH
nj EDQGQXPEHU
/LVWKHUDGLDQFHH[SUHVVHGLQ:PVUPP
Trang 11#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
7KHVSHFWUDOUDGLDQFHDVFDOFXODWHGDERYHFDQEHFRQYHUWHGWRDWVHQVRUUHIOHFWDQFHYDOXHV
T O
O S U
FRV
/
Trang 12
/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHGDWDVHWZDVVHOHFWHGFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHJURXQGWUXWKPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQOHYHOV7KH3&,*HRPDWLFDYHUVLRQLPDJHSURFHVVLQJVRIWZDUHZDVXVHGLQDOOWKHDQDO\VHV7KH/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHLPDJHVZHUHDFTXLUHGRQWK)HEUXDU\)LJXUH WK -DQXDU\ )LJXUH WK 0DUFK )LJXUH DQG WK )HEUXDU\ )LJXUH
5DZGLJLWDOVDWHOOLWHLPDJHVXVXDOO\FRQWDLQJHRPHWULFGLVWRUWLRQDQGFDQQRWEHXVHGGLUHFWO\DVDPDS6RPHVRXUFHVRIGLVWRUWLRQDUHYDULDWLRQLQWKHDOWLWXGHDWWLWXGHDQGYHORFLW\RIWKHVHQVRU2WKHUVRXUFHVDUHSDQRUDPLFGLVWRUWLRQHDUWKFXUYDWXUHDWPRVSKHULFUHIUDFWLRQDQGUHOLHI GLVSODFHPHQW 6R WR FRUUHFW WKH LPDJHV ZH KDYH WR GR JHRPHWULF FRUUHFWLRQ $IWHU
DS S O\LQJ WKH FRUUHFWLRQ WKH GLJLWDO GDWD FDQ WKHQ EH XVHG IRU RWKHU S URFHVVLQJ VWHS V$QGHUVRQ HW DO ,PDJH UHFWLILFDWLRQ ZDV S HUIRUPHG E\ XVLQJ D VHFRQG RUGHUSRO\QRPLDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ HTXDWLRQ 7KH LPDJHV ZHUH JHRPHWULFDOO\ FRUUHFWHG E\ XVLQJ DQHDUHVW QHLJKERXU UHVDPSOLQJ WHFKQLTXH 6DPSOH ORFDWLRQV ZHUH WKHQ LGHQWLILHG RQ WKHVHJHRFRGHGLPDJHV5HJUHVVLRQWHFKQLTXHZDVHPSOR\HGWRFDOLEUDWHWKHDOJRULWKPXVLQJWKHVDWHOOLWHPXOWLVSHFWUDOVLJQDOV
)LJ5DZ/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHLPDJHRIWK)HEUXDU\
Trang 13
#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
)LJ5DZ/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHLPDJHRIWK-DQXDU\
)LJ5DZ/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHLPDJHRIWK0DUFK
Trang 14
)LJ5DZ/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHLPDJHRIWK)HEUXDU\
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
2YHU D VLPS OH EODFN WDUJHW WKH REVHUYHG DWPRVS KHULF UHIOHFWDQFH LV WKH VXP RIUHIOHFWDQFH RI DHURVROV DQG 5D\OHLJK FRQWULEXWLRQV (TXDWLRQ 7KLV VLPSOLILFDWLRQKRZHYHULVQRWYDOLGDWVKRUWZDYHOHQJWKVOHVVWKDQSPRUODUJHVXQDQGYLHZ]HQLWKDQJOHV9HUPRWHDQG5RJHU,QWKLVVWXG\DVLPSOHIRUPRIWKHHTXDWLRQZDVXVHGLQWKLV VWXG\ (TXDWLRQ 7KLV HTXDWLRQ DOVR XVHG E\ RWKHU UHVHDUFK LQ WKHLU VWXG\ 3RSS
Trang 15
7KHGDWDSRLQWVZHUHWKHQUHJUHVVHGWRREWDLQDOOWKHFRHIILFLHQWVRIHTXDWLRQ7KHQWKHFDOLEUDWHGDOJRULWKPZDVXVHGWRHVWLPDWHWKH30FRQFHQWUDWHGYDOXHVIRUHDFKLPDJH7KHSURSRVHG PRGHO SURGXFHG WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW RI DQG URRWPHDQVTXDUH HUURU
JP 7KH 30 PDSV ZHUH JHQHUDWHG XVLQJ WKH SURSRVHG FDOLEUDWHG DOJRULWKP 7KHJHQHUDWHG 30 PDS ZDV FRORXUFRGHG IRU YLVXDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ >/DQGVDW 70 WK)HEUXDU\)LJXUHWK-DQXDU\)LJXUHWK0DUFK)LJXUHDQGWK)HEUXDU\)LJXUH@*HQHUDOO\WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDERYHLQGXVWULDODQGXUEDQDUHDVZHUHKLJKHUFRPSDUHGWRRWKHUDUHDV
Trang 16
)LJ0DSRI30DURXQG3HQDQJ,VODQG0DOD\VLD%OXHǍJP*UHHQ ǍJP <HOORZ ǍJP 2UDQJH ǍJP 5HG ! ǍJPDQG%ODFN :DWHUDQGFORXGDUHD
Trang 17
#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
)LJ0DSRI30DURXQG3HQDQJ,VODQG0DOD\VLD%OXHǍJP*UHHQ ǍJP <HOORZ ǍJP 2UDQJH ǍJP 5HG ! ǍJPDQG%ODFN :DWHUDQGFORXGDUHD
Trang 18
)LJ0DSRI30DURXQG3HQDQJ,VODQG0DOD\VLD%OXHǍJP*UHHQ ǍJP <HOORZ ǍJP 2UDQJH ǍJP 5HG ! ǍJPDQG%ODFN :DWHUDQGFORXGDUHD
Trang 19
#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
)LJ0DSRI30DURXQG3HQDQJ,VODQG0DOD\VLD%OXHǍJP*UHHQ ǍJP <HOORZ ǍJP 2UDQJH ǍJP 5HG ! ǍJPDQG%ODFN :DWHUDQGFORXGDUHD
%QPENWUKQP
7KLVVWXG\LQGLFDWHVWKDW/DQGVDW70VDWHOOLWHGDWDFDQSURYLGHYHU\XVHIXOLQIRUPDWLRQIRUHVWLPDWLQJDQGPDSSLQJDLUSROOXWLRQ7KHSURSRVHGDOJRULWKPLVFRQVLGHUHGVXSHULRUEDVHGRQ WKH YDOXHV RI WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW 5 DQG URRWPHDQVTXDUH HUURU 506
JP 7KLV WHFKQLTXH KDV EHHQ SURYHG WR EH UHOLDEOH DQG FRVW HIIHFWLYH IRU VXFKHQYLURQPHQWDOVWXG\)XUWKHUVWXG\ZLOOEHFDUULHGRXWWRYHULI\WKHUHVXOWV
Trang 20
S DUWLFLS DWHG LQ WKLV S URMHFW 7KDQNV DUH DOVR H[WHQGHG WR 860 IRU VXS S RUW DQGHQFRXUDJHPHQW
KWWSZZZWDPHVLGHJRYXNDLUTXDOLW\
)DX]LDK $KPDG $KPDG 6KXNUL <DKD\D 0RKG $KPDGXOODK )DURRTL
&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ DQG *HRWHFKQLFDO 3URSHUWLHV RI 3HQDQJ 5HVLGXDO 6RLOV ZLWK(PSKDVLV RQ /DQGVOLGHV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI (QYLURQPHQWDO 6FLHQFHV
)XNXVKLPD + 7RUDWDQL 0 <DPDPL\D 6 0LWRPL < $WPRVSKHULF FRUUHFWLRQ
DOJRULWKP IRU $'(262&76 DFHDQ FRORU GDWD SHUIRUPDQFH FRPSDULVRQ EDVHG RQVKLSDQGEXR\PHDVXUHPHQWV$GY6SDFH5HV9RO1R
)XQGDPHQWDOVRI5HPRWH6HQVLQJ>2QOLQH@DYDLODEOH
KWWSZZZFFUVQUFDQJFFDUHVRXUFHWXWRUIXQGDPSGIIXQGDPHQWDOVBHSGI-HQVHQ-55HPRWH6HQVLQJRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW$Q(DUWK5HVRXUFH3HUVSHFWLYHQG
(G 8SSHU 6DGGOH 5LYHU 1- 3UHQWLFH +DOO >2QOLQH@ DYDLODEOHKWWSZZZFDVVFHGXJHRJ5VERRN/HFWXUHV5VHLQGH[KWPO
Trang 21#KT2QNNWVKQP&GVGTOKPCVKQP7UKPI4GOQVG5GPUKPI6GEJPKSWG
3RSS & 6FKOlSIHU ' %RMLQVNL 6 6FKDHSPDQ 0 ,WWHQ , (YDOXDWLRQ RI
$HURVRO0DSSLQJ0HWKRGVXVLQJ$9,5,6,PDJHU\5*UHHQ(GLWRUWK$QQXDO-3/ $LUERUQH (DUWK 6FLHQFH :RUNVKRS -3/ 3XEOLFDWLRQV 0DUFK 3DVDGHQD
&$
4XDLGUDUL+GDQ9HUPRWH()2SHUDWLRQDODWPRVSKHULFFRUUHFWLRQRI/DQGVDW70
GDWD5HPRWH6HQVLQJ(QYLURQPHQW
5HWDOLV $ 6LIDNLV 1 *URVVR 1 3DURQLV ' 6DULJLDQQLV ' $HURVRO RSWLFDO
WKLFNQHVV UHWULHYDO IURP $9+55 LPDJHV RYHU WKH $WKHQV XUEDQ DUHD >2QOLQH@DYDLODEOH
KWWSVDWVSDFHQRDJUUVHQVLQJGRFXPHQWV,*$566B$9+55B5HWDOLVHWDOBZHESGI
8QJ $ :DOG / 5DQFKLQ 7 :HEHU & +LUVFK - 3HUURQ * OHLQS HWHU - E
6DWHOOLWHGDWDIRU$LU3ROOXWLRQ0DSSLQJ2YHU$&LW\9LUWXDO6WDWLRQV3URFHHGLQJRI WKH WK ($56H/ 6\PSRVLXP 2EVHUYLQJ 2XU (QYLURQPHQW )URP 6SDFH 1HZ6ROXWLRQV )RU $ 1HZ 0LOOHQLXP 3DULV )UDQFH ² 0D\ *HUDUG %HJQL(GLWRU$$%DONHPD/LVVH$ELQJGRQ([WRQ3$7RN\RSS²>2QOLQH@DYDLODEOH
KWWSZZZFHQHUJFPDIU3XEOLFWKHPHVBGHBUHFKHUFKHWHOHGHWHFWLRQWLWOHBWHOHBDLUWLWOHBWHOHBDLUBSXEVDWHOOLWHBGDWDBIRUBW
6LIDNLV 1 'HVFKDPSV 3< 0DSSLQJ RI DLU SROOXWLRQ XVLQJ 6327 VDWHOOLWH GDWD
3KRWRJUDPPHWULF(QJLQHHULQJ 5HPRWH6HQVLQJ²
6LIDNLV 1 , 6RXODNHOOLV 1 $ 3DURQLV ' 4XDQWLWDWLYH PDSSLQJ RI DLU
SROOXWLRQ GHQVLW\ XVLQJ (DUWK REVHUYDWLRQV D QHZ SURFHVVLQJ PHWKRG DQGDSSOLFDWLRQ WR DQ XUEDQ DUHD,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO 5HPRWH6HQVLQJ ²
KWWSZZZYLQFHQWFKRZQHWKD]HLQPDOD\VLD
9HUPRWH ( 5RJHU - & $GYDQFHV LQ WKH XVH RI 12$$ $9+55 GDWD IRU ODQG
DSSOLFDWLRQ5DGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUPRGHOLQJIRUFDOLEUDWLRQDQGDWPRVSKHULFFRUUHFWLRQ.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV'RUGUHFKW%RVWRQ/RQGRQ
9HUPRWH ( 7DQUH ' 'HX]H - / +HUPDQ 0 0RUFUHWWH - - 6 XVHU JXLGH
9HUVLRQ 6HFRQG 6LPXODWLRQ RI WKH VDWHOOLWH VLJQDO LQ WKH VRODU VSHFWUXP 6
>2QOLQH@DYDLODEOH
KWWSZZZJHRJWDPXHGXNOHLQJHRJKDQGRXWVVVPDQYB3SGI