Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems doi: 10.1016/j.procir.2016.11.070 Procedia CIRP 57 2016 404 – 409 Sci
Trang 12212-8271 © 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
doi: 10.1016/j.procir.2016.11.070
Procedia CIRP 57 ( 2016 ) 404 – 409
ScienceDirect
49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016) Future trends in human work area design for cyber-physical production
systems
a University of Bremen, Production Systems and Logistic Systems, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany
b BIBA- Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany
* Corresponding author Tel.: +49-421-21850038; fax: +49-421-218-9850038 E-mail address: ste@biba.uni-bremen.de
Abstract
Currently, there is an ongoing transformation of classical products and machinery towards cyber-physical systems Main features of these
systems are the real-time data exchange between various technical and computational elements enabled by communication technologies and
data processing ability provided by embedded systems In the area of manufacturing, this trend boosts the development of cyber-physical
production systems (CPPS) They enable the optimization of control processes, for example by autonomous decision-making, computational
assistant systems for workers, or an extended human-machine collaboration
Subsequently, this increased computerization and automation provokes changes for human work in manufacturing Following leading experts,
the factories of the future will provide less easy and repetitive but more advanced and complex tasks This trend changes the way how human
factors or human-machine interaction influence the design of manufacturing systems In order to achieve the promised productivity gains
created by CPPS, these human-related topics have to be considered and included into the technical and organizational development of CPPS
As a starting point, a detailed view on remaining and newly added human tasks in CPPS is necessary
In this paper, we provide a listing of human task areas in existing and future CPPS In this regard, we provide a trend estimation on the decline,
rise, or further change of these tasks The results can be used to facilitate the integration of human factors in the design of CPPS We carry out
our work by firstly deriving a standard listing of tasks for a generalized manufacturing system Secondly, we combine the findings with expert
judgments regarding CPPS trends and recent employment data from the German job market
© 2015 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V
Peer-review under responsibility of Scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016)
Keywords: Human factors; Cyber-physical production systems; Industry 4.0; Work area design
1.Introduction
The vision of cyber-physical production systems (CPPS)
will provoke changes in many ways in the area of
manufacturing, which include technical as well as
organizational changes One topic that has been addressed in
literature frequently concerns the role of the human workers
in these factories of the future On the one hand, statistical
studies can be found, which provide an outlook on the future
employment situation of specific work areas and skill levels
on an empirical basis On the other hand, CPPS-related work
is available which does a qualitatively and visionary expert prognosis on the changes of manufacturing work In order to combine these sources and to provide additional help for practitioners who are about to implement CPPS, we present
an overview and a trend estimation for future human work areas in manufacturing
In this regard, we firstly present a brief introduction to CPPS and the changes of manufacturing work Secondly, we work on statuses, trends, and prediction of future work area
© 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientifi c committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems
Trang 2design as a preliminary work Finally, we compile an
overview and a guideline for CPPS practitioners regarding
trends for future human work areas
Due to the fact, that a major part of the scientific
community of this topic is publishing their work with
references to Germany or the German manufacturing sector,
many relevant publications are only available in German
language Consequently, some of these publications can be
found as a reference for this paper
2.Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS)
2.1.Factories of the future
Cyber-physical systems represent a new kind of
technological systems which combine and integrate embedded
systems, physical and computational elements as well as
humans by connection via Internet [1] They are forming the
basis for different and innovative products and processes
which functionalities are enabled by the interplay of these
components Examples are solutions for intelligent mobility
concepts, Smart Grids or eHealth systems [2, 3]
In the area of production and logistics, cyber-physical
systems provide the basis for the so-called fourth industrial
revolution (or ‘Industry 4.0’) Mainly, it addresses an
enhancing intelligence of products and systems and its
vertical cross linking [4] Following Köhler, this will be
represented in a connection of sensors and actors of
automation on the one hand and the levels of production
management, control, and planning on the other hand By this
action, autonomous production control is enabled and can be
used for flexible and complex production environments [5]
Likewise, the products manufactured in CPPS are expected
to change into so-called ‘Smart Products’ Here, products are
equipped with integrated electronic components in order to
provide product-specific information for data exchange and
localization purposes These products therefore can
self-influence their lifecycle processes such as manufacturing, use,
or recycling [5]
Currently, first examples of applied CPPS can be found in
practice Amberg describes the case of a packaging line,
which performs a decentralized distribution of data on product
sizes This data is used for an autonomous positioning of
packaging machines according to the upcoming product sizes
[5] Another application targets the improvement of the
material supply caused by a cyber-physical milk run Here,
manufacturing orders are equipped with QR-Codes
(two-dimensional barcodes) which have to be scanned during the
manufacturing process These information is transmitted to a
software tool which computes current material demand and
plans the upcoming milk runs Subsequently, the computed
routes and dates are presented to the logistics workers [5]
According to the given examples it can be reasoned that
CPPS are able to fulfil the expectations regarding its
optimization potential Besides, following Köhler, we can
assume further use cases created by CPPS, e.g., in the field of
quality or working conditions, although practical confirmation
is not available yet [5]
2.2.Changes of manufacturing work
Due to the displayed technical and organizational shift provoked by cyber-physical production systems, future manufacturing work will experience changes as well Leading experts expect less basic, repetitive work but more ambitious working tasks in collaboration with cyber-physical production machines or in machine surveillance Hence the factories of the future will not be deserted but organized as a hybrid production system (i.e a combined system, where human and automated parts work side by side) [6, 7]
3.Statuses, trends, and predictions of future work area design in CPPS
The present paper mainly focuses on a trend analysis of human work areas in cyber-physical production systems As a result, an overview of future work areas is provided, which can be used as a guideline for practitioners during the planning process of new cyber-physical production systems
As a preliminary work, in this section we investigate the present human work areas, its current changes, and expected future status Here, we firstly focus on the situation of work areas in manufacturing today and present a standard classification of work areas and qualification levels of jobs in manufacturing
Secondly, we examine ongoing employment trends regarding manufacturing work Here, we concentrate on changes of the demand distribution of qualification levels Finally, we bring together selected visionary expert predictions on work area changes in manufacturing This collection pictures the long-term changes to be expected
3.1.Standard work areas in manufacturing
According to the REFA association, all company departments which are related to the production can be organized as shown exemplarily in Figure 1 Here, a generic organization scheme is displayed, which might differ depending on a company’s individual situation For example,
in this illustration a development department is included, which might not be the case in all production and logistics companies Table 1 additionally shows a brief task description
of all manufacturing-related company departments [8]
Fig 1 General production organization scheme [8]
Production
Production Organization
Development Procurement Manufacturing Quality Control
Manufacturing Organization
Manufacturing
of Components Assembly
In-House Transport Maintenance
Trang 3Table 1 Company departments and their task areas [8]
Department Task
Manufacturing Organization Includes the work area design,
logistical planning, and operative control in manufacturing
Maintenance Consists of all actions heading for the
preservation and restoration of resources and tools
Manufacturing of Components Performs the manufacturing of
components, which can be the final product or input for assembly
to modules or products
In-House Transport Provides the material flow between
manufacturing subdepartments or resources and tools
In this paper, we assume the manufacturing-related
departments shown in Figure 1 (manufacturing organization,
maintenance, manufacturing of components, assembly, and
in-house transport) as the current work areas in
manufacturing Besides, we are exclusively focusing on the
manufacturing department Other company departments and
their work areas, such as marketing or accounting, might as
well be affected by the integration of cyber-physical systems
but are not further considered at this point
Adjacent to the presented categorization of work areas
from a company organizational point of view, work areas can
also be subdivided according to the required skill and
qualification level Following a classification made by the
Institute for Employment Research (IAB), we adopt the
following subdivision of skill levels:
Table 2 IAB subdivision of skill levels [9]
Occupation level Description
Highly skilled occupation Occupation with superior formal qualification
required, e.g., on university level Skilled occupation with
managerial functions
Occupation with senior formal qualification required, e.g., on master craftsmen level Skilled occupation Occupation with formal job-related
qualification required Lower skilled occupation Occupation without formal job-related
qualification required Auxiliary occupation Occupation without any job-related
qualification required
3.2.Ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing
Actual work areas in manufacturing are currently
experiencing transformations caused by several reasons
Adjacent to major events such as globalization and the
demographic change, the proceeding computerization by
cyber-physical systems plays an important role in this context
The cyber-physical systems provoke rationalization effects by
further digitalization, inter-linking, and automation of
processes [10] as outlined in the previous section
As a result, the type of human work required in the
factories of the future is changing A study performed by
Prognos claims a rising demand for highly skilled occupation but less demand for auxiliary occupation in the next two decades [11] This effect is characteristic for technical and organizational progresses, which always lead to less demand for easy, repetitive and more demand for complex tasks [10] Vogler-Ludwig and Düll additionally predict a significant drop of jobs in the manufacturing area They estimate the number of lost jobs in Germany until 2035 to 1 million In contrast, they expect the number of managerial positions to be rising by 170.000 [10] When taking a closer look at the lost manufacturing jobs, we find different predictions for specific task areas and qualification levels within the manufacturing area While the numbers of jobs for machine and plant manufacturers, assemblers, metal workers, and warehouse workers diminish, the numbers of jobs for engineers and managers increase Figure 2 gives an overview on the changes
in these and other manufacturing (and company) work areas
Fig 2 Employment shares in the metalworking industry in per cent [10]
These trends can be supported by the Prognos study [11] When comparing 2011 and the estimated development until
2035, the authors predict a decline of easy and a rise of complex tasks as well In 2035, on the one hand, approximately 53 percent of production workers in Germany are expected to still be directly involved in production of goods, but on the other hand the share of work areas close to the production line is decreasing below 20 percent (see figure 3) On the other hand, the share of jobs related to the provision of reliable and safe processes and the creation and spreading of knowledge and information is estimated to rise
up to 47 percent [11]
0 2 4 6 8 10
Engineers Office occupations Management positions, Consulting
Technicians Engineering an maintenance occupations
Sales occupations Electricians Unskilled labour Machine operators Metal and plant engineering occupations Accounting occupations, Computer scientists Metal-cutting manufacturing occupations Storekeeper, Transport occupations Product testing occupations Light engineering occupations Assembly occupations
2030 2010
Trang 4Fig 3 Occupation structure 2011-2035 in production area [11]
The authors further number the individual changes for
specific task areas (see Table 3) Regarding the tasks which
are located near the production line, we can state a uniform
decline throughout all investigated task areas For the primary
service tasks the situation is different caused by an expected
rise in demand which can partially compensate the
rationalization effects and reduces the decline of the total
share
Table 3 Individual changes for specific task areas
Task category Specific tasks Share 2011 Share 2035
Tasks near the
production line
Machine setup and
surveillance
Manufacturing,
Processing
9.1 7.8 Primary service
tasks
Cleaning 4.3 4.3
Transport,
Packaging
6.1 5.5 Administrative and
organizational tasks
Management,
Direction
5.6 5.8
Knowledge driven
tasks
Research and
Development
5.0 6.1
Administrative and organizational tasks will experience a
slight decline of its total share Within this category
management and directive tasks will rise while the field of
data processing will be increasingly automated For the field
of the knowledge driven tasks we can state the most
significant increase Here, especially the area of research and
development will create a high number of new occupations
3.3.Expert predictions on changes in manufacturing work
Although the use of cyber-physical systems in practice is
still in its infancy (see also Section 2), first studies were made
regarding the future of work in the factories of the future Due
to the fact that there is just a small amount of reviewed
practical applications of CPPS, all studies and statements have
a visionary character
In the following, we present five main expert predictions regarding the future production work (in general and in manufacturing)
1. Humans will be absolutely necessary in the factories of the future
According to Bauernhansl the number of jobs in manufacturing will be decreasing due to automation, but new jobs will be created around the machines [7] Besides, generally increasing automation is not necessarily always related to job losses Glatz points out that some manufacturing areas might not be automated because of economic reasons [7] Hence, following Mittelbach, the factories of the future will not be deserted [7]
2. The new tasks will be more complex Caused by an increasing product and process complexity
on the one hand and the required interaction with computational automation devices on the other hand, the human working tasks will be more complex as well [12] Hence, according to Kurz, the factory workers of the future will take over jobs which originally have been engineering tasks [7] Hirsch-Kreinsen adds that due to that job enrichment worker and engineer occupations are merging [13] In detail, Becker concludes that future workers need more abstraction and problem solving capabilities, the ability
to perform an independent and self-organized work, and being communicative [13]
3. The new tasks will be intensely connected to computational devices
CPPS will integrate human workers and automated production parts into a combined, hybrid production system Therefore, human flexibility can be connected to the flexibility of production machines, following Post [7] Subsequently, Becker claims that organizational losses in production can be reduced by mobile assistance systems, intelligent automation, expert knowledge, and creativity of workers [13] The required participation of workers in the mentioned areas will be enabled by computerized work areas, concludes Spath [7]
4. Easy and repetitive tasks will be automated Hirsch-Kreinsen claims that the intelligent systems will substitute easy tasks This leads to a dequalification of workers since only non-automatable tasks remain [13] Also Reinhart is of the opinion the major part of the physical work will be executed by machines while humans operate on a higher level [7]
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Tasks near the production line Primary service tasks
Administrative and organizational tasks Knowledge driven tasks
Trang 55. Unique human abilities will play a more significant role
for human task design
The adequate utilization of unique human abilities which
can only be automated at high costs or not at all will be
important in future CPPS according to Post [7] For example,
humans can execute tasks with a high flexibility in
comparison to automated solutions Hence Spath expects
combined, hybrid production systems where the human
flexibility is used to connect automated parts of the
production [7]
4.Recommend actions for CPPS design regarding future
work areas
According to the prediction by Koehler, CPPS will prevail in
manufacturing because of their advantages [5], but then again
actual studies show that up to now only a small percentage of
companies have already established CPPS Consequently,
further assistance for practitioners for CPPS design and
implementation is required An important topic in this context
is the integration of workforce and the intelligent and highly
computerized systems Hence we present an overview on
future work areas in manufacturing, which serves as a
guideline Users get to know which actual task areas are
expected to expand, remain, or be cut The overview is based
on the previously collected information presented in Section
3 We conclude our findings from three different elements:
• table of company departments and classification of
standard required skill levels of occupations as shown in
Section 3.1,
• ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing as
shown in Section 3.2 and
• selected expert judgments on changes in manufacturing
caused by CPPS as shown in Section 3.3
Figure 5 summarizes the results The first column lists the
actual standard company departments which we expect to
remain the standard departments in CPPS as well For each
company department we extracted several major trend
information and predictions, which can be valid for all
(second column) or individual departments (third column)
Additionally, we qualitatively determine a department trend
value regarding its development in occupation matters in the
fourth column Here, the trend values indicate the general
shift of employment Table 4 shows the applied categories:
Table 4 Trend values
+ Increase
o Constant
- Decrease
Further, we include the standard skill levels which are required in the different departments (fifth column) These levels are equivalent to the levels described in Section 3.1 Here again we qualitatively determine trend indicators regarding their development in employment (sixth column)
By adding up the department and skill level trends, we compute total trend values for each skill level and each company department Here, for example, highly skilled occupation in manufacturing organization department adds up
to ‘++++’, because of a department trend and a skill level trend of ‘++’ each
This table represents the basis for our decision-making aid for the design of future CPPS (Figure 5) Practitioners are able
to analyze their individual company using this scheme and get
an indication of the importance of a specific work area in a future CPPS This process is organized using the following guideline:
1. Listing of existing task areas in the company and classification into company departments and skill levels 2. Evaluation of existing task areas using total trend indicators
3. Result analysis and re-organization of tasks according to the following scheme:
• “++++” or “+++”: highly increasing task area
job creation recommended
• “++” or “+”: increasing task area
job retaining recommended
• “o” or “-“: required task area
job merging should be considered
• “ “, “ -“ or “ “: decreasing task area
job cutting should be considered 4. Listing of needed tasks in a CPPS on the basis of (3) 5. Utilization of (4) as a planning basis for CPPS conception and introduction
• Expected task areas in the company when using a CPPS
• Utilization as a decision support for long term human resource management
Trang 6Fig 4 Overview of work area trends
5.Conclusion
In order to use the potential enabled by CPPS, an explicit
examination of the future role of human workers in the
factories of the future is necessary According to expert
predictions and employment studies, the future human work
areas will be different but not fully replaced by automated
solutions Consequently, a scientific discussion on the
integration of workers into CPPS is needed As one element
on this path, we provided an overview and a trend estimation
for future human work areas in manufacturing in this paper
Based on this first result, an evaluation of this tool is
necessary as a next step in order to assess its practical
usability
Acknowledgements
This work has been supported by the Institutional Strategy
of the University of Bremen, funded by the German Excel-
lence Initiative
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[13] Botthoff A, Hartmann E A Zukunft der Arbeit in Industrie 4.0 Berlin:
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Department Status and Prognosis Department
Trend Skill Levels
Skill Trend
Total Trend
Manufacturing
Organization
• Number of jobs in
manufacturing are decreasing in total
• Shares of different
occupations and skill levels change
• Easy and repetitive
tasks diminish
• Remaining tasks get
more complex (task enrichment) and more computerized
• Complex tasks are
newly created
• share of occupations increases slightly
• importance of the field increases
++
1 Highly skilled
2 Skilled with managerial functions
3 Skilled
4 Lower skilled
5 Auxiliary
++
++
o
-
++++ ++++ ++ +
o
Maintenance
• share of occupations remains constant or decreases slightly
• high level automation requires maintenance
+
1 Highly skilled
2 Skilled with managerial functions
3 Skilled
4 Lower skilled
5 Auxiliary
++
+
o
-
+++ ++ +
o
-
Manufacturing
of Components
• share of occupations decreases strongly
• field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly
-
1 Highly skilled
2 Skilled with managerial functions
3 Skilled
4 Lower skilled
5 Auxiliary
++
+
-
+
o -
Assembly
• share of occupations decreases strongly
• field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly
-
1 Highly skilled
2 Skilled with managerial functions
3 Skilled
4 Lower skilled
5 Auxiliary
++
+
-
+
o -
In-House-Transport
• share of occupations decreases strongly
• field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly
-
1 Highly skilled
2 Skilled with managerial functions
3 Skilled
4 Lower skilled
5 Auxiliary
++
+
-
+
o -