Total Return Fund Fourth Quarter 2012 1 Risk Disclosures and Index Descriptions are located in the Important Information section of the Appendix PIMCO Total Return Fund Uncertainty an
Trang 1Quarterly Investment Report
PIMCO
840 Newport Center Drive
Newport Beach California 92660 (888) 87-PIMCO www.pimco.com/investmentsDecember 31, 2012
PIMCO Total Return Fund
Trang 2Total Return Fund Fourth Quarter 2012
1
Risk Disclosures and Index Descriptions are located in the Important Information section of the Appendix
PIMCO Total Return Fund
Uncertainty and pessimism surrounding the fiscal cliff
negotiations dominated headlines during the fourth quarter
The Federal Reserve enacted further monetary easing by
committing to purchase $45 billion in Treasuries per month
and by explicitly tying the federal funds rate to
unemployment and inflation targets
Most fixed income sectors outperformed Treasuries during
the quarter and 2012 as central bank policies helped push
investors toward higher yielding assets
PIMCO expects the global economy to grow at a modest 1.5
to 2.0 percent over the year ahead
U.S policymakers passed a last minute deal to avert majority
of the “fiscal cliff” although additional negotiations will be required to deal with the sequestration Estimated 2013 impact will be a 1.3 – 1.4 percent drag on GDP
PIMCO anticipates global inflation of between 2.0 and 2.5 percent over the cyclical horizon
The Fund outperformed its index for the quarter and the year
Most sectors that trade at a spread to U.S Treasuries
outperformed as global central banks extended their
commitment to monetary easing
The following strategies were positive for the quarter:
¾ An underweight to U.S duration as yields rose across
most of the curve
¾ An allocation to non-Agency mortgages which were
supported by positive supply technicals
¾ A focus on financials, which outperformed the broader
corporate market amid accommodative monetary policy
and improving housing data
¾ Holdings of Build America Bonds (BABs) which
outperformed like-duration Treasuries and long
investment grade corporates during the quarter
¾ Exposure to emerging market local rates, especially in
Brazil, as the Monetary Policy Committee cut the policy
rate
The following strategies were negative or neutral for returns:
¾ An overweight to Agency mortgage-backed securities
(MBS) which underperformed like-duration Treasuries
This was partially offset given the focus on lower coupon
mortgages which outperformed on a relative basis
Continue to reduce risk while preferring high quality income over price appreciation, as risk premiums still appear richly priced relative to our outlook
Remain focused on sectors that will benefit from central bank actions that have increased liquidity and suppressed volatility
Selectively add high quality duration in countries with healthier balance sheets and independent monetary policy - including, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico
Reduce holdings in Agency mortgages to benchmark weightings as Agency MBS appear fully priced with limited upside following recent central bank actions
Shift credit exposure towards securities higher in the capital structure and remain cautious on the bonds of companies with economic exposure to Europe
Retain exposure to select corporate and quasi-sovereign bonds in countries with strong initial conditions and strong balance sheets such as Brazil and Mexico
Continue to hold high quality municipal bonds which have reverted to fair value; focus on essential service revenue bonds such as water and sewer, power, and airports
Retain longer dated Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) positions to protect against potentially higher long-term inflation
Trang 3Summary of Performance Data and Portfolio Statistics
PIMCO Total Return Fund
Barclays U.S Aggregate Index (%)3
The Fund's Total Annual Operating Expenses 0.46%
Summary Information 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 Sector Allocation 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012
Expense Ratio
See example of tracking error / information ratio in
Important Information section of the Appendix.
% of Market Value % of Duration
Portfolio Index
BofA ML
1-3 Yr
Treasury
Citigroup 10-Yr Strip
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Standard Deviation of Return 2 (%)
10-Year Return vs Standard Deviation
Government-Related may include nominal and inflation-protected Treasuries, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury futures and options, and FDIC-guaranteed corporate securities.
The performance quoted represents past performance Past performance is no guarantee of future results Investment return and
principal value will fluctuate so that Fund shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost Current
performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted Details regarding any Fund’s operating expenses can be found
in the Fund’s prospectus Performance data current to the most recent month-end is available at www.pimco.com/investments or by
calling (888) 87-PIMCO.
*The benchmark duration as provided by Benchmark Provider
**Benchmark duration as calculated by PIMCO
2
Trang 4Additional Share Class Performance
PIMCO Total Return Fund
ADMINISTRATIVE Class:
Total Return Fund, Administrative 0.71 - USD Sep-08-94 8.08 6.55 8.07 7.48 10.08 4.23 1.10
Class D:
Total Return Fund, Class D 0.75 - USD Apr-08-98 8.03 6.49 8.02 7.44 10.04 4.21 1.09
Class P:
Total Return Fund, Class P 0.56 - USD Apr-30-08 8.26 6.71 8.23 7.64 10.25 4.30 1.14
The performance quoted represents past performance Past performance is no guarantee of future results Investment return and principal value will
fluctuate so that Fund shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost Current performance may be lower or higher than
the performance data quoted Details regarding any Fund’s operating expenses can be found in the Fund’s prospectus Performance data current to
the most recent month-end is available at www.pimco.com/investments or by calling (888) 87-PIMCO.
December 31, 2012
3
Trang 5Market Commentary Fourth Quarter 2012
4
Politics Weigh Heavily on Economics
In a largely status quo election, Americans voted President
Barack Obama to a second term in office in November While
the President’s reelection likely cemented the fate of the
Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank reforms, market
participants quickly turned their attention to the uncertainty
surrounding the impending fiscal cliff Both political parties
recognized that averting the cliff was essential to avoiding a
recession in 2013, but negotiations were strained for much of
the quarter with Democrats seeking increased tax revenue from
the wealthiest Americans and Republicans asking for spending
cuts on entitlement programs Ultimately, hopes of a grand
bargain abated and gave way to a short-term deal, thus opening
the door to further fiscal negotiations, most notably on a debt
ceiling increase and spending cuts (the “sequester”), in 2013
While politicians struggled to agree on fiscal policy, the Federal
Reserve (Fed) unveiled new monetary policy measures to
stimulate the economy According to Chairman Bernanke, “The
conditions now prevailing in the job market represent an
enormous waste of human and economic potential.” With
Operation Twist set to expire at the end of the year, the
Committee announced that they will initiate purchases of $45
billion in Treasuries, in addition to the existing purchases of $40
billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), each
month The Fed also took the extraordinary step of linking an
increase in the federal funds rate to specific economic targets
Rates will stay low, between 0 and 0.25 percent, at least as long
as the unemployment rate remains over 6.5 percent and
projected inflation is below 2.5 percent These targets replace
the Fed’s previous statement that rates would remain low
through at least the middle of 2015
U.S interest rates reversed a downward trend and rose during
the fourth quarter of 2012 The 10-year U.S Treasury yield
increased 12 basis points during the quarter to end December at
1.76 percent The U.S Treasury yield curve steepened as the
2-year U.S Treasury yield rose 2 basis points while the 30-2-year
U.S Treasury yield rose 13 basis points Yields in most eurozone countries fell as investors responded to the European Central Bank’s program of Outright Monetary Transactions and Mario Draghi’s commitment to support the euro Spanish and Italian 10-year yields fell 67 and 60 basis points respectively during the quarter The Barclays U.S Aggregate Index, a widely used index of U.S high-grade bonds that includes Treasuries, returned 0.22 percent during the quarter, and most fixed income sectors that trade at a spread to U.S Treasuries outperformed
on a duration-adjusted basis
Despite the rhetoric surrounding the fiscal cliff and the damage from Hurricane Sandy, there were positive economic data released during the quarter According to gross domestic product (GDP) data, the U.S economy grew at a higher than expected 3.1 percent annual rate during the third quarter, up from 1.3 percent during the second quarter The housing market continued to show improvement during the fourth quarter amid record low mortgage rates In October, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of property values in 20 cities increased 4.3 percent from
a year earlier, and sales of existing homes rose 5.9 percent to
an annual rate of 5.04 million, the highest level in three years, according to the National Association of Realtors The
unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent during the quarter, representing a four year low
Most Fixed Income Sectors Outperform U.S Treasuries
The following summarizes fixed income sector returns during the fourth quarter of 2012:
Agency MBS underperformed like-duration Treasuries in the fourth quarter but outperformed for the year An increase in prepayment speeds coupled with profit taking following the Fed’s third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3)
announcement led to the relative underperformance While the sector as a whole underperformed, volatility remained in relative valuations between coupons as lower origination coupons fared better amid the Fed’s support Commercial
Trang 6Market Commentary, (cont’d) Fourth Quarter 2012
5
MBS and non-Agency mortgages outperformed for the
quarter and the year as limited supply, strong investor
appetite for higher yielding assets and signs of a bottom in
housing continued to fuel demand
Investment grade and high yield corporate bonds
outperformed like-duration Treasuries during the fourth
quarter and the year as investor demand for risk assets
remained elevated given persistently low Treasury yields
Corporate bonds benefitted from positive technicals and
reduced risk of disorderly deleveraging, as they continued to
ride the momentum provided by global monetary policy
action On a relative basis, financials outperformed the
broader corporate market on improving fundamentals and
signs of a stabilizing housing market
Municipal bonds, both tax-exempt and taxable, posted
positive absolute returns over the quarter and the year, as
demand continued to outpace new issue supply Primary
market supply was up 30 percent year-over-year; however,
the majority of primary market issuance was comprised of
refunding activity rather than new-money issuance Demand
remains strong, as municipal mutual funds continued to see
inflows throughout most of the quarter Select lower quality
municipal sectors outperformed high-grade sectors as
investors reached for yield by pushing out the curve and
down the credit spectrum The industrial revenue and
healthcare sectors were the top performers over the quarter
Municipal credit spreads, as measured by BBB versus AAA
Municipal Market Data yields, tightened modestly during the
quarter
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) returned 0.69
percent for the quarter and 6.98 percent for the year
(Barclays TIPS Index), and outperformed nominal Treasuries
for both periods Real yields declined across the maturity
spectrum during the year with the 10-year real yield ending
the year at -0.74 percent Breakeven inflation levels (the
difference between nominal and real yields and a proxy for
inflation expectations) widened during the quarter and the year as the markets priced in higher longer-term inflation expectations given the Fed’s continued dovish monetary policies
Emerging markets (EM) assets also outperformed during the quarter and the year, benefitting from a decline in yields, a contraction in spreads, and a rise in EM currencies driven by the risk-on environment EM spreads tightened 161 basis points over the year and 42 basis points over the quarter, while the JPMorgan EM Bond Index (EMBIG) returned 3.33 percent for the fourth quarter and 18.54 percent for the year
EM local assets outperformed Treasuries during the quarter and year, returning 4.13 and 16.76 percent, respectively, as measured by the JPMorgan GBI – EM Global Diversified Index EM currencies, as measured by the JPMorgan ELMI+ Index, returned 1.13 percent for the fourth quarter and 7.45 percent for the year
U.S Treasuries underperformed most other developed sovereign bond markets on a hedged basis for the quarter and year amid reduced uncertainty concerning a left-tail event in Europe given the unprecedented monetary support from global central banks
Trang 7Market Outlook First Quarter 2013
6
The New Normal Remains Intact
PIMCO expects the global economy to grow at a real rate of 1.5
to 2.0 percent in 2013, representing a slowdown from the 2.2
percent pace of growth seen over the past 12 months Real
growth will be moderated by efforts to resolve debt overhangs
through fiscal restraint as evidenced by the slowing in corporate
profits, capital expenditures and global trade Simultaneously,
inflation will decrease in the near term Households will continue
to delever their balance sheets while the corporate sector
remains reluctant to engage its own Nominal growth could,
however, be bolstered by the continued resolve of central banks
The balance of these forces will determine if GDP growth has
slowed to stall speed or if a coordinated global slowdown can be
averted
The negative effects of austerity measures implemented
throughout the eurozone and the U.K are reflected in the weak
growth numbers within the region and demonstrate recessions
already underway Mixed economic data and the unending hope
for further stimulus in the U.S and other developed and
emerging market (EM) economies allowed for cautious optimism
and tempered market volatility in the second half of 2012
However, ongoing efforts by policymakers to offer short-term
solutions are becoming increasingly ineffective in delivering real
outcomes Financial markets’ heightened sensitivity to
policy-related news reflects acknowledgement of the difficulties that lie
ahead in resolving significant structural problems in many
economies
Key Decisions Support Eurozone – The ratification of the
European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European
Central Bank’s (ECB) conditional commitment to be the
lender of last resort significantly reduced the probability of
tail risk in the eurozone Peripheral sovereign spreads
tightened significantly in the fourth quarter, as both actions
boosted confidence and slowed the process of delevering
The question now becomes when Spain or another troubled
sovereign will formally ask for assistance, fulfilling a key
pre-requisite for the ECB to buy their bonds However, bond purchases alone will not be enough to resolve the fundamental challenges facing the eurozone We expect progress toward greater integration to be incremental, conditional and punctuated with periods of volatility, especially surrounding the upcoming Italian elections
U.S Recovery Frustrated by Policy Uncertainty – U.S
policymakers passed a last minute deal to avert the majority
of the “fiscal cliff” although additional negotiations will be required to deal with the sequestration The estimated 2013 impact will be a 1.3 – 1.4 percent drag on GDP PIMCO forecasts U.S growth between 1.25 and 1.75 percent as ongoing negotiations over government spending and taxes prevent positive economic reports from establishing a trend
In a notable highlight, third quarter GDP was revised up to 3.1% from an initial reading of 2.0 percent Brighter news continues out of the housing sector where many indicators including strong demand, falling inventory, declining distressed sales and improving affordability suggest a gradual bottoming of home prices
The New Normal Arrives in Emerging Markets –Although
PIMCO anticipates EM growth to continue to outpace that of developed markets over the cyclical horizon, growth will come at a significantly lower level than in recent years EM economies continue to suffer from the knock-on effects of recession and slowdown in much of the developed world
Longer Term Inflation Concerns Build – PIMCO
anticipates global inflation of between 2.0 and 2.5 percent over the cyclical horizon On a secular basis, PIMCO expects the prolonged wave of ultra-dovish monetary policy
to drive longer-term inflation higher
Trang 8Market Outlook, (cont’d) First Quarter 2013
7
Investment Strategies: Managing Liquidity and Avoiding
Default Risk
Once again, central banks’ actions combined with slowing
improving fundamentals drove financial asset valuations higher
during the fourth quarter PIMCO sees many asset classes as
being fully valued and continues to implement risk reduction
strategies across portfolios While risks remain skewed to the
downside, we retain our broad defensive positioning and our
focus on yield derived from high quality sources and active
management
Interest Rate Strategies – PIMCO plans to maintain a
neutral duration position Portfolios will emphasize high
quality duration from countries that we view as having the
cleanest balance sheets, such as the U.S., Canada, Australia,
Brazil and Mexico We remain concentrated in the 5-10 year
portion of the yield curve where we see superior opportunities
for roll-down1 and price appreciation compared to those
available at the short-end, where potential rate rises and
volatility are constrained by Fed intervention We remain
underweight the long end of the yield curve as longer
maturities may not adequately compensate investors for
sizeable longer-term inflation risk
Mortgages – PIMCO now views Agency mortgages as fully
priced due to ongoing central bank interventions and will look
to reduce exposure to benchmark neutral While recognizing
that the new Fed program will likely continue to disrupt
absolute valuations within the mortgage market over the
cyclical horizon, PIMCO will continue to take advantage of
relative value opportunities across mortgage coupons We
plan to hold non-Agency mortgages and commercial
mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that have senior
1 Roll-down is a form of return that is realized as a bond approaches maturity, assuming
an upward sloping yield curve
positions in the capital structure and are a source of attractive yield
Corporate Bonds – PIMCO sees increasing differentiation
between credits in terms of default risk and continues to shift its exposure towards securities higher up in the capital structure We remain cautious towards companies overly dependent on revenue from regions which are in the earlier stages of their deleveraging cycles, such as Europe
We continue to assess and refine our financials exposure both due to industry developments and from a valuation perspective given the outperformance of this sector in 2012
Emerging Markets – PIMCO plans to retain exposure to
corporate and quasi-sovereign bonds in select countries with strong initial conditions and high quality balance sheets such
as Brazil and Mexico We also plan to maintain exposure to rates in these countries which have relatively high nominal and real local interest rates and steep yield curves with the potential to capture roll-down We continue to expect EM to outpace developed markets over the secular horizon
Currency – Having reduced our exposure to
commodity-intensive and EM currencies in recent months, PIMCO plans
to maintain minimal currency exposure while the threat of elevated volatility persists We are focused on high quality,
EM currencies such as the Brazilian real, Chinese yuan and Mexican peso as opposed to low quality, low yielding
currencies in developed markets
Municipals and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – PIMCO will broadly maintain its municipal positioning
yet not seek to add exposure given that tax-exempt municipals reverted to fair value during 2012 PIMCO expects to retain its positions in TIPS as the threat of higher longer term inflation remains
Trang 9Mortgage Commentary and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2012
8
Market Commentary
Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS)
underperformed like-duration Treasuries amid
post-QE3 profit taking and increased prepayment
concerns after the reelection of President Obama
Lower coupons benefitted from ongoing Fed
support, while higher coupons exhibited significant
volatility (especially in November) due to elevated
prepayment concerns and poor technicals
The 30-year FNMA Par Coupon ended the year at
2.26%, up slightly from the end of last quarter
HARP (Home Affordable Refinance Program)
continues to have a material impact on higher
coupon prepayments, but will likely wind down
over the next six months
Market Outlook
The Fed’s $70 billion in monthly purchases are
likely to continue through 2013, providing strong
support for lower coupon MBS
Mortgage origination employment has increased in
recent months and could result in a slight
tightening in primary secondary spreads as well as
an increase in prepayment speeds in 2013
Despite the recent rally, non-Agency MBS will
likely continue to benefit from improving housing
fundamentals and limited new issuance
Source: PIMCO, Federal Reserve Dotted lines represent PIMCO various forecasts
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Past performance is no guarantee of future results Graphs are
for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of the performance of any particular investment
Trang 10Investment Grade Credit Commentary and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2012
9
Market Commentary
The U.S investment grade credit market, as represented by the
Barclays U.S Credit Index, returned 1.04% in the fourth quarter
U.S credit outperformed Treasuries by +1.17%, as credit
markets continued to ride the technical boost provided by QE3
in addition to the FOMC’s announcement that it would convert
Operation Twist into outright Treasury bond purchases
The fourth quarter set a record for high grade bond issuance, as
$229bn came to market, bringing total primary market issuance
to $859bn for 2012 Demand remained robust despite the high
issuance total, as average new issue concessions were lower
than each of the prior three years
Financials were the strongest performing sector on an excess
return basis, returning +1.97% on average relative to
like-duration Treasuries Industrials marginally outpaced utilities,
returning +0.85% and +0.81% relative to like-duration
Treasuries, respectively
Market Outlook
quarter as global central banks enacted policy responses aimed
at offsetting fiscal tightening However, it is unlikely that policy
makers’ attempts at staving off near-term challenges will do
much in the way of addressing longer-term structural
impediments to growth
We still see many opportunities in credit that can offer
compelling risk-adjusted returns for investors In the current
environment of sluggish global growth, where credit beta has
been squeezed and will likely contribute less to total return of
credit moving forward, we believe investors should focus on
bottom-up research in specific sectors and companies that have
the opportunity to grow faster than their economies
Unless otherwise noted, graph data represents the excess return performance of the Barclays U.S Credit Index and its sub-indices The corporate sectors shown are not equally weighted in the index but instead are market weighted The sectors shown represent the broad components of the index Excess Return is a duration-adjusted measure of performance relative to a term structure-matched position The predominate method for calculating excess return uses U.S Treasuries and key rate durations It measures the amount by which the return on an investment credit exceeds the equivalent “risk free” rate of return All investments contain risk and may lose value
Past performance is no guarantee of future results Graphs are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of the performance of any particular investment
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
U.S Credit Financials Industrials Utilities
Trang 11Real Return Commentary and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2012
10
Market Commentary
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) returned 0.69
percent during the fourth quarter, as represented by the Barclays
Capital U.S TIPS Index The real yield curve remained relatively
unchanged during the fourth quarter with the largest move
happening at the front of the curve as the 1-year real yield
increased just over 30 basis points
During October and November, real yields rallied on the back of
the new round of bond purchases that the Federal Reserve
announced in September; however, decreasing marginal
effectiveness of further quantitative easing did not have a
dramatic effect on real yields December witnessed a slight sell-off
in real yields resulting in longer-dated yields being relatively
unchanged for the quarter Shorter maturity real yields were hurt
by lower commodity prices.
Inflation accruals were positive at 0.96 percent over the quarter
Increases in crude oil and gasoline prices were reflected in CPI
numbers for August, September and October, which were passed
through to TIPS in the fourth quarter
TIPS outperformed nominal Treasuries as nominal yields
increased more than real yields across the term structure,
resulting in higher inflation expectations as represented by wider
breakeven inflation (or the difference between nominal Treasury
yields and yields on maturity matched TIPS) Continued
accommodative policy by the Fed helped feed higher inflation
expectations
Market Outlook
Expectations that the Fed will remain accommodative for an
extended period are likely to translate into real rates remaining
low for a long time
Shorter-term, we foresee subdued inflation given excess capacity
and restrained wage growth However, we expect inflation to trend
higher longer-term on the back of poor fiscal conditions and heavy
debt loads in the U.S and other developed countries, prolonged
accommodative and unconventional monetary policies, and
continued stress on global commodity supplies from emerging
market demand growth
SOURCE: Bloomberg
Past performance is no guarantee of future results Graphs are for illustrative
purposes only and are not indicative of the performance of any particular investment The negative real rates in U.S TIPS Yield Curve chart are directly observable in market traded TIPS The yield curves represent TIPS yields at specific points in time
as referenced in the chart
SOURCE: Barclays
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4