Qualitative Forecasting pdf

Ch 4 Qualitative Forecasting Using expert opinion and collective experience to unlock the secrets of the future... The keys to employing qualitative forecasting are:  Data as an histo

Ch 4 Qualitative Forecasting

Using expert opinion and collective

experience to unlock the secrets of

the future.

The keys to employing qualitative

forecasting are:

 Data as an historical

series is not available,or

is not relevant to future

needs.

 An unusual product or a

unique project is being

contemplated.

Keys:- There are numerous variables

which will affect the project.

Sales by Year, With Automatic Twenty

Year Prediction

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Year

 The project’s life is longer than the safe extrapolation of a time series.

Keys:

 Experts are available, and should

debate the issues.

Qualitative Forecasting:

Data From Expert Opinion

By

Survey- Data can be gathered by phone or in writing.

 Data comes in three categories:

1 Highly valuable

2 Absolutely essential

3 Supporting material.

 The survey group is known as the ‘reference population’.

Qualitative Forecasting:

Data From Expert Opinion

draw upon their collective wisdom to map out future events These discussions are carried out

in open meeting, and may be subject to the

drawbacks of group think and personality

dominance.

Using

groups-Qualitative Forecasting:

Data From Expert Opinion

 The Delphi Method: drawing upon the

group’s expertise by getting individual

submissions, without the drawback of

face to face meetings.

Using

groups-The Delphi Method is named

after a famous Oracle who

prophesied in the ancient Greek

city of Delphi An Oracle (wise

person) interceded between men

and gods.

Qualitative Forecasting:

Data From Expert Opinion

Using groups

- The Nominal Group Technique is a face

to face Delphi method, allowing group

discussion.

 The Devils Advocate method poses

sub-groups to question the group’s findings.

sub-groups to challenge the group’s

findings with alternative scenarios.

Qualitative Forecasting:

Using Expert Opinion

1. Output from the group techniques is

sorted into scenarios.

2. These scenarios are further reviewed by

the group.

3. A final ‘consensus of opinion’ forecast is

accepted by the group.

Qualitative Forecasting:

Summary

 Qualitative forecasting is used when

historical data is not available, or when the planning horizon is very long.

 Qualitative forecasting uses expert

opinion, collected in a variety of ways

carefully managed.

Method, and the Nominal Group

technique, are reliable forecast methods.