Does provincial economic development in vietnam foster internal migration

NETHERLANDSPROGRAMMEFORM.AINDEVVIETNAM-ELOPMENTECONOMICS DOESPROVINCIALECONOMICDEVELOPMENTINVI ETNAMFOSTERINTERNALMIGRATION?... Research objectives and research questions 2 1.3.. Organiz

NETHERLANDSPROGRAMMEFORM.AINDEV

VIETNAM-ELOPMENTECONOMICS

DOESPROVINCIALECONOMICDEVELOPMENTINVI ETNAMFOSTERINTERNALMIGRATION?

“Icertifythecontentofthisdissertationhasnotalreadybeensubmittedforanydegreea n d isnotbeingcurrentlysubmittedforanyotherdegrees

IwouldliketoexpressmydeepestgratitudetomyinstructorsinVietnamNetherlandsProgram,

lessons,usefula s s i g n m e n t , utilityseminarsandnewinformationduringmymasterstudying

Ig r e a t l y e x p r e s s mys p e c i a l t h a n k s t o D r P h a m K h a n h N a m f o r a l l h i s a c

a d e m i c r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s throughfinishingthesisprocess

Iamg r a t e f u l t o a l l t h e s t a f f s i n t h e p r o g r a m h a v e h e l p e d met o r e a c h b o o

k s a n d n e c e s s a r y documentsduringthelearningprocess.Mythanksarealsoextendedtoallmyclassmates,whohavecompanionsandsharelearningexperienceswithmethrough

o v er last2years

Mentalsupportfrommyfamilyisoneofthemostbolsterformyefforttofinishthisprogram.Iwouldliketosendmythanksandmylovetoallmyfamily’smembers

PGDP ProvincialGrossDomesticProductPCI ProvincialCompetivenessIndexGSO GeneralStatisticsOfficeofVietnam

SEM StructuralEquationModelingFEM FixedEffectModel

REM RandomE f f e c t M o d e

lOLS OrdinaryL e a s t SquaresVIF VarianceInflationFactor

HCMC HoChiMinhCity

VND VietnamDong(VietnameseCurrency)

ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofprovincialeconomicdevelopmentoninternalmigrationinVietnambasedonthecomplexcasualrelationshipbetweenmigrationandeconomicdevelopment.Weexaminethatimpactforfurtherunderstandingaboutthed e t e r m i n a

KeyWords: Migration,economicdevelopment,Vietnam,population,originareas,d e s t i n a t i o n areas,employment,jobs

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTION

1.1 Problem statement 1

1.2 Research objectives and research questions 2

1.3 Scope ofthe study 3

1.4 Organization of the thesis 4

CHAPTER2:LITERATUREREVIEW 2.1 Concepts ofmigration 5

2.2 Migration theories 6

2.2.1 Harris –Todaro theory 7

2.2.2 Lee’s theory 8

2.2.3 Lewis’s theory 9

2.2.4 Other cognizance aboutmigration

10 2.3 Empirical studies on migration

11 2.3.1 Economic development and otherfactors

11 2.3.2 Determinants ofmigration

13 2.3.3 Linkages between economic development and migration

14 CHAPTER3:RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY 3.1 Analytical framework andhypotheses

17 3.2 Estimation methods 21 3.2.1 Structural equation model (SEM) 21 3.2.2 Other common paneldatamethods

23 a PooledOLSmodel 23

b Fixedeffectsmodel(FEM) 24

c Randomeffectsmodel(REM) 24

3.2.3 Testing for appropriatemodels 25

a F-testforchoosingFEMorOLS 25

b Breusch -PaganLM-testforchoosingREM orOLS 25

c HausmantestforchoosingFEMorREM 263.3 Model specification26

3.3.1 Structural equation model (SEM)27

3.3.4 Instrument variable31

3.4 Data sources 32

4.3 Regression results 41

5.2 Limitation of thestudy54

5.3 Policy implications 54

APPENDIX .60

CHAPTER1INTR ODUCTION1.1 Problemstatement

t e r m t o g e t t h e i m m e d i a t e r e s u l t s b u t i t i s a d i f f i c u l t a n d l o n g

-t e r m p ro cess V i e -t n a m n e v e r c o u l d b e a n e x c e p -t i o n c a s e i n s u f f e r i n g -t h e n e

g a t i v e e f f e c t f r o m developmentprocess.Thesenegativeeffectsarethehugefactorscausinginequality,poverty,stagnation,unkemptforthesocialandeconomicdevelopmentnotonlyinthepresentbutalsoforfuturegenerations.Onedownsideisthatpeopleoftentogetherr u s h e d t o t h e a r e a w h e r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t w h i c h i s g e n e r a l l y h i g

h e r t h a n otherareas,asanallusionproverb“luathocdaubocautheodo”inVietnamese

Itiseasilytoespythephenomenonofr u r a l peopleleavetheirfields forthebigcitiestofindjobs.Thenatureofthatphenomenoncanbeinterpretedasthemigrantattempttocometohigheradvantagedestinationswiththeexpectationofimprovingt h e i r lives(DeJong&Fawcett,1981).However,theout-

controlmigrationcausetheimbalanceinpopulationdensitysuchasoverloadstatusatthelargecityortheslowg r o w t h rateinruralareassincethelackoflabor.Inaddition,Migrationleadstomanyserioussocialproblems.Forinstance,m a s s -

m i g r a t i o n c o u l d c r e a t e e n v i r o n m e n t a l p o l l u t i o n becauseoftheinadequateinfrastructure(Bilsborrow,1992)andtheftcoulda l s o b e a p a i n f u l p r o

b l e m f o r d o w n t o w n c i t i z e n ( D e s h i n g k a r , 2 0 0 6 ) b e c a u s e t h e migrantsfallintodeadlocksituation

Therearee n o r m o u s difficulties forany migrantwhentheyhavetorese tt le w

i th manyd i f f e r e n t c o n d i t i o n s a t t h e n e w d e s t i n a t i o n s , b u t i n r e a l i t y a h u g

e a m o u n t o f

Alongw i t h m a n y f a c t o r s c a n a f f e c t o n t h e internalmigrations u c h a s d i s t a

n c e a m o n g p r o v i n c e s , d i f f e r e n c e i n p o p u l a t i o n density,e d u c a t i o n

f a c i l i t i e s , r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , livingstandard(Dang,Goldstein&McNally,1997),costofmoving( G r e e n w o o d , 1975),etcetera;Differenceinprovincialeconomicdevelopmentisalsoa f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e migrationactivitiess i n c e

t h e p r o v i n c e h a s h i g h e r d e v e l o p m e n t indexwillmoreattractmigrantsthanothers.Inotherwords,highp r o v i n c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e a d s t o t h e e x p e c t a t i o n i n i

m p r o v i n g migrantl i v i n g conditionsandbecomesaneconomicmotiveinmigrationflows

Thiss t u d y a ims toe x a m i n e t h e i m p a c t o f p r o v i n c i a l e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p

m e n t oninternalmigrationtointerpretwhetherhigheconomicdevelopmentprovincesattractmigrantsandwhethertheencouragementofeconomicdevelopment–

aninstrumentf o r redistribution populationdensity?

F i n d i n g outthislinkagesupport theargumentt h a t Governmentcouldintervenemigrationflowviaencouragedevelopmenttoolsino r d e r toavoidthebackwardcontextshadmentionedabove

Throughoutthehistoryofthecountry,Vietnamhashadnumerousinternal-migrationfl ow sw it hd if fe re nt scal es, f r o m th e earlyprimitivetimes,t h r o u g h thousandsfeudalyearsuntiltoday.Manyofthemareforcedmigrationsorreluctantmigrationsdueto Government’spolicyornaturalcircumstances suchasmigrationsin1 9 5 4 a n d 1 9 7 5 o r t h e migrationbyp o l i c y o f " n e w economicz o n e " H o w e v e r , t h e f o r c e d migrationshaveitscertainlimitationsuchastheunexpectedfromthoseforcedt o c h a n g e theirh a b i t a t T h i s p h e n o m e n o n leadst o t h e r e a c t i o n

s a g a i n s t t h i s c o m p u l s i o n , forexampletheresistance,escapadeorfakedeclaredinformation

Astheargumentsstatedabove,theconsequenceofresidentialovercrowdinginonearearaisesthestagnationintheeconomicdevelopmentprocess.Thisgoesagainsttheexpectationsofmigrantswiththepurposeofimprovingtheirliving,whichincludedeconomicfactors,theambivalenceisextremelyclear.Therefore,inordertolimitthed o w n s i d e thatcau

sedbytheseconsequences,policymakersneedtofindsolutionstoredistributepopulationdensity.

developmenta n d integration,spontaneousmigrationa l m o s t completelyreplacedtheforcedmigration,theissuingmacroeconomicpoliciess o t h a t p e o p l e c o u l d f r e e l

y t o migratebyt h e i r o w n d e c i s i o n s b u t s t i l l w i t h i n t h e c o n t r o l ofthegovernmentisthenecessaryandurgentpolicies

Researchquestions

Thetransferenceofhumanisnaturalandundeniableinthehistoryofmankindallo v e r t h e

w o r l d Ino r d e r t o r e c o g n i z e a b o v e r e a l i t i e s , i t i s d e s e r v e d toa s s e r t t

h a t migrationhaspossibilitytofetchbothopportunitiesandchallengesfordevelopment.I n s p a t i a l c o n t e x t s a n d s p e c i f i c t i m e , t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n migrationa n d d e v e l o p m e n t willbedifferent.InaspecificcontextofVietnam,byusingsecondaryd a t a andanalyticalmodels,thegoalofthisstudyistofindrelevantanswersfortheseq uest i on s below:

1.3 Scopeofthestudy

Thisstudyfocusesoninternalmigrationwitheconomicisthemainmotivation,s omigrantswerementionedaboveinclude peo pl e whomovef r o m oneprovince to a

CHAPTER2LITERATUR EREVIEW

2.1 Conceptsofmigration

Migrationisthechangingofthedomicileofindividualsorgroupsofpeople.Itisa n integralparto f t h e p o p u l a t i o n d y n a m i c s a n d h a s c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h m a n y importantissueso f sustainabled e v e l o p m e n t ( G o l d s c h e i d e r , 1 9 7 1 ) T h e c h a n

g e s i n culture,e c o n o m i c s , p o l i t i c s a n d s o c i e t y i m p a c t d i r e c t l y o n migrationd e c i s i o n s o f p e o p l e T h e r e f o r e , migrationc o u l d b e s e e n a s c h a

n g e s i n d e m o g r a p h i c , w h i c h i s synthesizedfromthechangesinaccommodation.Therei s alwayse x i s t e d t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n migrantsa n d n e w d e s t i n a t

i o n ’ s e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s M i g r a n t s h a v e t o s u f f e r t h e d i s t u r

b e d h a b i t a t c a u s e bysocialc h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d c o m m u n i t y n a t u r e a t d

e s t i n a t i o n s B e s i d e , migrantsa l s o contributetothetransformationofthedestination’s

properties,inreverse.Inaddition,S j a a s t a d (1962)assertedthatmigratorymovementscouldbereliedoneachmigrant’sc h a r a c t e r i s t i c s suchashealthcondition,sex,age,literacyandsoon

Therearemanydifferentmigrationpatterns,Fairchild(1925)classifiedmigrationbymanydifferenttypes: migrationrelyongeographicallocationssuchaslowculturallevel–

h i g h c u l t u r a l levelm o v e m e n t o r h i g h c u l t u r a l l e v e l –

lowc u l t u r a l l e v e l movement;migrationrelyonpeacefulmovementsuchascolonizationmovementorimmigration–

theindividuallymotivated;migrationrelyonwarlikemovementsucha s invasionmigration,conquestmigration

Byanotherstudy,Petersen

(1958)classifiedmigrationinothermethodsasfollow:primitivemigration,whichiscausedbyecologicalpush,isthephenomenonofmovingt o c o p e w i t h s c a r c i t y o f n a t u r a l r e

s o u r c e s T h e s e typesofmigrationw e r e h a p p e n e d s i n c e t h e d a w n o f mankinda n d c o u l d b e d i v i d e d intof i v e c a t e g o r i e s : “Wanderingofpeoples”,“Marinewandering”,“Gathering”,“Nomadism”and“Flightf r o m theland”;forcedorimpelled

migration,whichisinfluencedbysocialinstitutionsa n d categories:“Flight”,“Displacement”,“Coolietrade”and“Slavetrade”;freemigrationorspontaneousmigration,whichisdescribeda s itsname:freelymovement.Inthistypeofmigration,peopleawarethatby

couldbealsodividedintofoursub-settlementatthenew d e s t i na t i o n s , theycouldreach abetter livingi n the future, sotheydecidetocomethere; thelasttypeofmigrationinthisclassification s y s t e m ismassm i g r a t i o n T h e i n c e n t i v e s o f massmigrationa r e fromc i r c u m s t a n c

e s , s o c i a l p a t t e r n s , milieux,diseaseoutbreaksandsoon

Nowadays,alongwiththedevelopmentofscienceandtechnologyande n h a n c e m e

n t s o f s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , t h e d e l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y o r t

e r r i t o r y becomesveryclearly.Thereby,migrationcouldeasilytorecognizetheexistenceoftwomajormigrationf l o w s t hos ear e migrationamongcou nt ri es ( i n t e r n a t i o

n a l migration)a n d i n t e r n a l migration.I n t e r n a t i o n a l migration,w h i c h iso n e o f g r

e a t e s t c o n c e r n ofeconomistsabout relationshipbetween economics anddemography,waspresen ted i n m a n y s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h e s a b o u t t h e t r a n s f e r o

f h i g h s k i l l l a b o r s f r o m d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s tod e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s G

i l l i s , P e r k i n s , Roemer& S n o d g r a s s (1996)identifiedthisphenomenonas“braindrain”problem.Inanotheraspect,internalmigrationjustmentionsaboutdomesticmovementflowsandusuallydividedintothreemaincategories:rural–urbanmigration,urban–ruralmigrationandurban

–

urbanmigration.Eitherinternalmigrationorinternationalmigration,thepurposeofspontaneousmigrantsistoimprovetheirfuture

Ourstudy

focusesoninvestigatetheinternalmigration,thespecificcaseofVietnam’sc o n t e x t A l

m o s t migrants,w h o d e c i d e d t o m i g r a t e byt h e i r o w n i n t h e studiedperiod,wouldliketof i n d t h e opportunitiesatthedestinationswiththeirexpectationstochange th ei rliving towardpositive d i r e c t i o n Inanotherexpression, migrationc o u l d b e amotivationf o r c o u n t r y d e v e l o p m e n t a n d t h e s o c i o -

e c o n o m i c r e s u l t s byt h e m a t c h i n g o f demanda n d s u p p l y i n l a b o r f o r

c e i n i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n p r o c e s s

2.2 Migrationtheories

Therearemanyresearchesaboutmigrationinthepast,thesestudiesarethesolidargumentsformotivationsofmigration,includingtheresearchofHarrisandTodaroa b

o u t therelationshipsamong migration,u n e m p l o y m e n t andd e v e l o p m e n t was

p u b li sh ed in1970;Lucas(1997)publishedtheresearchaboutmigrationindevelopingcountries;L e e ( 1 9 6 9 ) p r o p o u n d e d h i s t h e o r y o f migrationb a s e d o n f a c t o r s c o

u l d a f f e c t o n migrationd e c i s i o n ; L e w i s ( 1 9 5 4 ) i n t r o d u c e d a n o t h e r theoryt o i n t e r p r e t

migrationphenomenonthroughlaborsupplying;MarxandFleischer(2010)proclaimeda d

v a n t a g e s a n d d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f i n t e r n a l migrationf o r s o c i o

-e c o n o m i c d -e v -e l o p m -e n t inVi-etNaminth-eirstudypublish-edin2010;ScottandChuyen(2004)r el e a s e d theirstudyaboutsocialmobility,regionaldisparities,andnewtrajectoriesofdevelopment inruralVietnam.Sriskandarajah(2005)statedinhisstudythatoneofr e a s o n forinternalmigrationisthedisparityindevelopmentamongcountries.Ino r d e r t o ha v e v i s u a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t migrationa n d f a c t o r s i m p a c t o n m i g r

a t i o n d e c i s i o n , werecapitulatesomerepresentativetheoryasfollow:

2.2.1 Harris–Todarotheory

HarrisandTo da ro (1970) use dt he

two-sector modelto demonstrate th e incomeg a p betweenruralandurbanareasisthemotivationsofrural-

Secondly,theyassumedthepriceofgoodsinagriculturalsectorcouldbedeterminedbygoodsinmanufacturingsectorbytheformula:P=ρ(XM).WherePis

X Athepriceofagriculturalgoodsdeterminedbymanufacturedgood,XMi stheoutputof

goodsinmanufacturingsectorandXAistheoutputofgoodsinagriculturalsector

Finally,theyassumedpeopleinbothruralandurbanareashavethesamechancest o findjobs,theunemploymentstatusaturbanareasandtheredundantlaborforceattheruralareascontributedintotheequilibriumconditionsofincomeinbothareasthentheincomeequilibriumintheirmodelwasasfollow:

��

�𝐴=

��(�̅�)

WAisincomeinagriculture

Anothere v i d e n c e t o c o n s o l i d a t e f o r a b o v e t h e o r y , L u c a s ( 1 9 9 7 ) s t a t e

d t h a t t h e reasonsf o r p e o p l e migratei n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s too b t a i n t h e

g a i n f r o m h i g h incomestreamatthedestinations,tolookforsuitablejobs,toachievethegainfromt h e i r owncapital,toaccesstheinformation at thedestinationsormotivationscausebypoliciesattheoriginplaces

2.2.2 Lee’stheory

Lee(1969)expressed themigrationmotivations through “push”and“pull”m

e c h a n i s m : althoughthereare manyfactorsco ul d impactonm i g r a t i o n decision o

fa n y migrantsb u t t h e n e g a t i v e f a c t o r s f r o m t h e o r i g i n a r e a s i s t h e mainr

e a s o n i n interpretingleavingdecisions.Incontrast,thepositivefactorsatthedestinationsare

thed o m i n a n t f a c t o r s t h a t p e o p l e c h o o s e t o i m m i g r a t e ; F o r e x a m p l e , climatea t t h e o r i g i n areashavebothpositiveandnegativeimpactonresidentsthere,butwithmanyp eo p l e whofeeluncomfortable,theywilldecidetomove.Atthedestinations,therea r e alsoexistsbothsignsofeffect.Someresidentschoosethesuitableconditionsthere

f o r theirsettlement.Intermediateelementsandpersonalfactors,whicharenotassociatedwithbothoriginareasanddestinationssuchasperception,intelligenceandp e r s o n a

l sensitivities,areinterveningobstaclesfactors.Diagrambelowillustratesthemostconcisewayforthistheory

Figure2.2:Lee’spush-pulltheory

Source:Lee(1969)

Thesefactorsarenotonlyregardedasqualitativefactorsbutalsoare essentiallyq uant itati v e factorsbycreatingathresholdofmigration.Moreover,besidethefactor

sf r o m originareasandfrom destinationareas,therearemanyfactorsdonotinvolvewit h bothoriginareasanddestinationsstillhavecertaineffectsonmigration,thoseared i st

a n ce s betweenoriginareasanddestinations,immigrationlaws,costofhouseholdappliancestransportationorfactorsinvolvetothelifecycle’sstage

Inc o n c l u s i o n , a l t h o u g h L e e ’ s a p p r o a c h o n l y s u m m a r y i n p u s

h

-p u l l f a c t o r s a t o r i g i n a r e a s a n d d e s t i n a t i o n s b u t t h i s t h e o r y r e f l e c

t e d a f u l l r a n g e o f f a c t o r s t h a t i m p a c t onmigrantselectivity.Thistheorycouldbeviewedasthemostfundamentaltheoreticalforfurtherunderstandingandclassificationaboutmigration

2.2.3 Lewis’stheory

Manys i m i l a r i t i e s withHarris–

Todarotheory,Lewis(1954)interpretedthemo t i v at io n s ofmigrationinhisstudythroughtheabundanceoflaborsinruralareas

Inhis“unlimitedsuppliesoflabor”,heassumedthecloseeconomywithtwoopposingincomefromcontradictoryfields:livelihoodwagesfromagriculturalsectorandincomefromindustrialsect or He comparedt h e extremelowpriceo f la bo ratrural a r e a s withearningabilityinurbanareas.Thisgapisoneoftheimportantmotivationsf o r migrantsfromruralareas.Beside, land–

thekeyinputinproductionprocess inagriculturalsector,suffersthelawofdiminishingtoreturnbecauseof itslimitationc h a r a c t e r i s t i c M o r e o v e r , t h e r e i

s a n i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d o f n a t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l areasleadtomorelaborsurplus.Simultaneously,thereinvestmentactivityofprofitsf r o m business,dividends,extraordinaryincomecouldleadtotheincessantlyevolutiono f industrialsectorandincreasinglylabordemand.Consequently,thesupplyoflaboris“unlimited”inbothcaseofnewindustriesarearisenandoldindustriesareexp an ded Peoplehavetoomanylegitimatereasonstoleaveruralareaswhereassociatedwitharablelandtojoinmetropolitanareas

2.2.4 Othercognizanceaboutmigration

Migrationdecisionisaverydifficultdecisionbecausemigrantshaveto

leavetheirhometown,w h e r e t h e y w e r e f a m i l i a r w i t h then a t u r a l c o n s t r a

i n t s s u c h a s family,r e l a t i v e s , friends,tocometonewareaswiththedifferencesinlivingconditions, somigrationdecisionisalwaysaffectedbyvolatilityandcomplexityfactors.However,M a r x a n d F l e i s c h e r ( 2 0 1 0 ) , S c o t t a n d C h u y e n( 2 0 0 4 ) e m p h a s i z e theu r b a n c i t i z e n s have

the significantlyadvantageinachieving

thebenefitsfromthedevelopment.Thati s o n e o f t h e mainr e a s o n s f o r r u r a l c i t i z e n s

w o u l d l i k e t o m o v e tou r b a n a r e a s I n V iet n am c o n t e x t , p o v e r t y r a te s t i l l h i g

h i n r u r a l a r e a s a n d c l e a r l y t h e r u r a l c i t i z e n s h e r e havelessconditionstocontactwiththosebenefits,besidetheaverageincomeofu r b a n citizensisaboutdoublecomparedtoruralcitizens(MarxandFleischer,2010).A n o th er mainf a c t o r c o u l d h a v e s t r

o n g i m p a c t i s t h e a b i l i t y t o i m p r o v e migrant’sincome( H a r r i s a n d T o d a r o, 1 9 7 0 ) b e s i d e o t h e r f a c t o r s s u c h a s h e a l t h c a r e , l i v i n g standard,environmentfactors,etcetera

DeJong(2000)builtthemodelofmigrationbehaviorswithfactorscouldinfluencet o migrationd e c i s i o n making:e x p e c t a t i o n s , g e n d e r r o l e , f a m i l y norms,h o u s e h o

l d r e s o u r c e s , c o m m u n i tyc h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d h u m a n c a p i t a l ( m i g r a

n t ’ s n e t w o r k ) T h i s

modelc l e a r l y s h o w s t h a t t h e r e a r e m a n y f a c t o r s t h a t c a n i m p a c t o n t h e migrationd e c i s i o n ofanyindividual.

c e s w i t h h i g h i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e r a t i o n h a v e c l e a r l y trendtoa t t r a c t immigrants.

Voglera n d R o t t e ( 2 0 0 0 ) i n d i c a t e d t h a t b e s i d e

m a n y f a c t o r s c o u l d impactonmovingdecisionofmigrantssuchastrade,law,politicalsituation,distance;incomeofb o t h s e n d i n g c o u n t r i e s a n d r e c e i v i n g c o u n t r

i e s a l s o h a v e t h e c e r t a i n i n f l u e n c e t o migrationdecision.AlsobaseonOLSmethodfortheiranalyzing,theyarguedthatthel o w i n c o m e i n t h e s e n d i n g c o u n t r i e s c o

u l d l e a d t o t h e e x a c e r b a t i o n o f migrateo u t motivationandviceversa.Inanotherwords,theincomedifferentialamongcountriesisoneofthemostimportantfactorsimpulsemigrationprocess

1985).S i m i l a r l y , h e a l t h a l s o m a n i f e s t s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t l e v e l o f a n y n a t i o

n o r anyp r ov i n ce Inthepoorenvironment,peoplecouldonlycareabouttheirlivelihoodssoth at theycannotcareabouthealthcareoreventheyhavenoconditiontoreachtotheh e al t h s e r v i c e s because the lack offacilities.Ofcourse,healthalwaysplaysanimportantroleintheassessmentofdevelopmentlevelofanyareasandthereby,alsoimpactsonmigrationdecision.Recreationfacilitiesareusedtoreckonbynumberofa r t p e r f o r m a n c e s o r n u m b e r o f cinemas h o w s , t h i s proxys t a n d s f o

r e n t e r t a i n m e n t a t t r a c t i v e n e s s withtheargumentthat

thehigherratiooflocalentertainmentshows,thel o w e r ratio t h e youtho u t

-m i g r a n t s Da ng, Goldstein &a-mp; McNally (1997).Distance is-measuredbytheactualdistance(km)amongthe provinces,thismeasurementstandf o r t h e c o s t o f m

i g r a t i o n a n d a l s o t h e h i n d r a n c e o f moving.I t isc l e a r l y t h a t t h e d i s t a n c

e andmigrationhavethenegativeeffectbecausethelongdistanceleadtohighcostofmovingandviceversa

2.3.2 Determinantsofmigration

AccordingtoLee(1969),migrationisaselectiveprocess,include:

Agefactor:Adultandyouthtendtomigratemorethanother

groupsatanyformofmigrations(Rogers&Castro,1981).Youthandadultareofteneasilyinadaptationtothenewhabitatsatthenewdestinations.Theirqualificationssuchasproactive,

fl ex ib l e , youthfulandingeniousareverynecessaryforenterprise.Hence,youthanda d u l t oftenoverwhelmotheragegroupsinhighimmigrationrateareas

Figure2.3:ModelofmigrationbyageadaptedfromRogersandCastro1986

Genderf a c t o r : M a l e o r femalemigrationf l o w s a r e o f t e n d e p e n d e d o n v a

r i o u s f a c t o r s Men’squalificationsarepotencyandpowerwhereaswomen’squalificationsarenurturecapacityandmuliebrity(Keyes,1987).Singlewomentendtoparticipantf r e e l y inthelaborforcebutmarriedwomenareencumberedbytheirfamily.Hence,t h e migratedecisionsbecomedifferentamongmen,singlewomenandmarriedwomen.AccordingtoDe Jong(2000)about migrationdecision-

makingprocedures, theroleofgenderisexpressedveryclearlyinmakingthedecisiontomigrate

Maritalstatus:Althoughindevelopedcountries,itishar d todeterminewhetherunmarried

p e o p l e o r m a r r i e d p e o p l e h a v e h i g h a b i l i t y to m i g r a t e b u t i n d e v e l o p i n g countries,thecelibateshavehighmigrationratethanmarriedpeople(Maxwell,1988).I t isbecausethe sameconditions tomoveindevelopedcountries forbothcelibates a n d marriedpersonswhereastherearemanyfamilytiesindevelopingcountriessucha s

r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o take carefortheirchildrenorconstraintsduetohabitsandcustoms.Occupation:Onbothinternationalandinternalmigration,highskilledlaborsalwayscontributehighestproportion.Itisbecausetheyhavemanyopportunitiesforg o o d jobsatthelargecompanies,butthesecompaniesoftenhavethefixedlocations,so theyhavetomovetomatchthatlabordemand.Incontrast,low-

skilledlaborshavel i t t l e chance tomoverelyonbothjob demand andt he ir costofmoving(Altonji &C a rd , 1991)

Education:Therearemanystudiesabouttherelationshipbetweeneducationandmigration.Likelyt o occupation,a l m o s t t h e s e studiesindicatedt h e positiver e l a t i o n s h i p betweenthetwo.Itmeansthatthemigrantswithhighereducationlevelh a v e t h e h i g h t r e n d t o migrate,v i c e v e r s a R o s e n z w e i g( 2 0 0 7 ) i n d i c a t e d t h a t manyhighlyeducatedcitizensfromlowincomeareastendtomovetohighincomeareasfort h e i r p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c e T h i s p h e n o m e n o n c r e a t e s t

h e e x u b e r a n t migrationf l o w s a m o n g incomedisparityareas

2.3.3 Linkagesbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandmigration

Deshingkar(2005)statedthatalongwiththeeconomicdevelopment,thetrendoftemporarymigrationisgrowing.Therearem a n y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s fort h i s a r g u m e n t F

irstly,t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systemsa r e i n c r e a s i n g l y improving, t h e m o v e m e n t o f p

e o p l e

willbecomeeasier.Thus,withtheshortdistancebetweentheoriginareasanddestinations,e v e r y o n e c a n movef o r t h e i r w o r k a n d comeb a c k h o m e e v e r y day.Secondly,therelativepriceofmovingindevelopedsocietywillbecomecheaperthanl e s s developedareas.Thecostofmigrationisnolongerahindrance.Peoplecanalsoch o o se f o r t

h e i r methoda n d

e x p e d i e n c y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n H e n c e , thef r e q u e n c y o f movingisl i k

e l i h o o d i n c r e a s e a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t e m p o r a r y m i g r a t i o n i n s t e a d o f permanentmigration.Thirdly,theimprovementofinfrastructurequalityandthehighc a p

a c i t y o f v e h i c l e w i l l s h o r t e n timeo f moving.S o , t h e d e c i s i o n s o f movingw

i l l becomeeasier.These are thereasons forthe risen intemporary migrationinrecentyears

“Throughv i r t u o u s c y c l e s , migrationa l s o h a s c e r t a i n c o n t r i b u t i o

n i n r e d u c i n g povertya n d inequality”i s t h e a s s e r t i o n i n t h e s t u d y o f

D e s h i n g k a r ( 2 0 0 5 ) Thise v i d e n c e showedthattheselectivityandcompatibilityofmigrationhasdrivenstrongeconomicdevelopment.Inanotherinterpretation,peoplewithjoblessfromruralareasc o u l d comet o t h e u r b a n a r e a s f o r j o b s e a r c h p u r p o s

e s w h i l e f a c t o r i e s i n t h e urbana r e as c o u l d m a t c h tot h a t l a b o r f o r c e f o r t h e i

r a c t i v i t i e s T h i s p r o c e s s b e n e f i t s f o r economicd e v e l o p m e n t i n b o t h r u r

a l a n d u r b a n a r e a s T h e e m p i r i c a l r e s u l t s i n h i s s t u d y indicatedthatmostofruralhouseholdshavemigrantsjoinintourbanareasinI n d o n e s i a

Int h e a n a l y s i s a b o u t migrationp e r s p e c t i v e o f d i f f e r e n t a m o n g g r o u p s

o f e c o n o m i s t s , De Hass(2010) reminded theperspectiveofpessimism thatbraindrainist h e handicapofmigration sendingareasbutaftermanydecades,theyrecognizetheimportanceo f migrationi n r e d u c e p o v e r t y a n d inequality.H e a l s o

r e

-q u o t e d fromp r e v i o u s studiesthatmigrantsaftermanyyearsresettleatnewdestinationshavethet r e n d tosendbackremittancestotheiroriginhometown.Obviously,theirremittancess u r g e asamoneyflowthatinfluencesbothoriginareaanddestination.Healsoarguedthat migration–

developmentnexusisaverycomplicatedrelationships,migrationisn o t onlyan

Kormendi& M e g u i r e ( 1 9 8 5 ) s t a t e d a t r a n s m i s s i o n c h a n n e l t h a t g r o

w t h r a t e o f populationi n a c e r t a i n e x t e n t l e a d t o t h e i n c r e a s i n g i n l a b o

r f o r c e , w h i c h h a s a n

importantcontributioni n t o t a l f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y ( T F P ) g r o w t h , a d e t e r

m i n a n t o f d e v e l o p m e n t wasfoundneoclassicalgrowththeory.Inaddition,thestatisticalanalysiso f datafromtheGeneralStatisticsOfficeofVietnamshowedthatgeneralpopulationg r o w t h r a t e e q u a l t o n a t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e p l u s n e t migrationr

a t e A b o v e argumentsshowaveryclearlyandcloselinkagebetweenmigrationanddevelopment.Migrationc o u l d c o n t r i b u t e i n t o e c o n o m i c g r o w t h p r o c e s s b o t h a t n a t i o n

a l l e v e l andhouseholdlevel.Migrationcouldalsoboosttherelationshipbetweenoriginareasa n d destinations,notonlythroughtheremittancethatmigrantssendbacktheirhomet

own,butalsothroughthetransferofknowledgeandskills,andthuscontributetoreducingthedifferencesbetweenregions(MarxandFleischer,2010)

Inconclusion,theresearchesindicatedthepositiverelationshipbetweenmigrationa n d e

c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t seemst o o v e r w h e l m t h e r e s e a r c h e s s h o w

e d t h e ambivalentornegativeimpactbetweenitsother.Migrationstillsilently

happeneveryd a y asanaturalprocessanditscontributionstoeconomicdevelopmentstillgoesona l l o v e r t h e w o r l d Thes p e c i f i c r e a l c o n t e x t , h o w e v e r , t h e l e

v e l ofimpact,i m p a c t methodandtheroleofmigrationineconomicdevelopmentwillbecomeclearlyd i f f e r e n t i a t e d T h e r e f o r e , w e attemptt o f i n d t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e

a n s w e r f o r t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p byspecificmethodinthecontextofVietnamwithexpectationofa c h i e v i ng theconsistenceestimationforfurtherperception

Economic factors Income

Provincial Competitiveness Index

3.1 Analyticalframeworkandhypotheses

Toh a v e e a s i l y v i s u a l i z a t i o n a b o u t t h i s e n t i r e s t u d y w i t h complexr e l

a t i o n s h i p s a m o n g variables,wefirstdescribetheimpactsamongobservationsunderconceptualframeworkformasbelow:

Figure3.1:Therelationshipamongeconomicfactorsandin-migration

ProvincialGDP

Goldstein,& M c N a l l y , 1 9 9 7 ) s h o w e d t h e m o r e d e v e l o p e d a r e a c o u l d l e a d t omoremigrantsmovei n a n d v i c e v e r s a , t h e l e s s d e v e l o p e d a r e a p r o m p t p e o p l

e t o leave.V o g l e r & Rotte(2000)alsoprognosticatedthat intheearlyp h a s e

o f economicdevelo pment, thehigherdevelopmentcountryhavethehighermigrationrate.Itcouldb e e x p l a i n e d byt h e i m p r o v e m e n t o f movingc o n d i t i o n s Firstly,developmenti n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ortransportationisthemostimportantthingtoremovethedifficultiesinmovinga mo ng r e g i o n s S e c o n d l y , ne t w o r k e f f e c t r e i n f o r c e

s t h e migrant’sd e c i s i o n Migrantscouldfeelsecureincontacttheirrelativeswithoutanyhindrance.I n somec a s e , thela teco me rs havetheir ow nm ig ra ti on decisionis basedonspillovereffect Finally,developmentleadstosocietalchanges.Traditionalagriculturalproductionisg r a d u a l l y

r e p l a c e d byotherindustriesormanyimprovementsincropyieldssurgetheh u g e amountofrurallabor

Dang,Goldstein,&McNally(1997)assertedintheirstudysince1997thatp r o v i n c

e s withhighurbanization–whichismeasuredbytheratio

ofurbancitizenpertotalpopulation–

couldbecomeattractiveprovincesformigrants.Urbanizationp r e s e n t s forthedevelopmentofaprovinceoranadministrativearea.Itisundeniablet h a t anyprovinceorareaconcentratehighmetropolitan,thatprovinceorareacouldbes e e n a s t h e h i g h e r d e v e l o p m

e n t l e v e l t h a n t h e o t h e r s Ino u r study,w e a p p r o p r i a t e usingt h i s m e a s u r e m

e n t a s a proxyf o r p r e s e n t a t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t l e v e l f o r e a c h province.Therefore,wecouldquantitativeestimateitsimpactonin-

migration.Witht h e r e a l c o n t e x t o f V i e t n a m t h a t p e o p l e tendt o movetot h

e l a r g e p r o v i n c e s , w e constructthehypothesisasfollow:

Hypothesis1:Provincewithhighratioofurbanizationhashighin-migrationflow.

Similarly,industrialstructure –

whichismeasuredbytheratioofnumberindustrialenterprisesperthousandpopulations–alsoagoodmeasurementforeconomicd e v e l o p m e n t T h e o p p o r t u n i t y o f n o n

f a r m e m p l o y m e n t i s c r e a t e d byt h e industrialenterprises.Thereby,b o t h highskilledlaborsandunskilledlaborscouldf i n d j o b s i n t h e s e c o m p a n i e s W i t h t h e c h

a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a d e v e l o p i n g e c o n o m y , V iet n am h a s m a n y i n d u s t r

i a l e n t e r p r i s e s g a t h e r i n g r o u p s , w h i c h a r e c o n c e n t r a t i v e locatedinindustrialzones,orprocessingzonesorhigh-techparks.Relyonflowsof

r a c t i v e n e s s o f migrants.B a s e ona r g u m e n t s f o r r e l a t i o n s h i p betweenincomeandimmigrationjustmentionedabove,weconstructthethirdhypothesisthat:

Hypothesis3:Provincewithhighincomepercapitahashighin-migrationflow.

GreenWood(1985)confirmedtheimportantroleof“non-tradedgoods”ina t t r a c t i v e n e s s peopleofanyarea.Hence,twoimportantandfamiliarcontrolvariables

–e d u c a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s a n d h e a l t h s e r v i c e s –

a r e i n c l u d e d i n tot h e modelt o t e s t t h e influencesofprovincialamenities.“Educationfacilities”ismeasuredbythenumbero f schoolsperthousandpopulationsforeachprovince.Theseschoolscontaink i n d e r g a r t e n , e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l , juniorhighschool,highschool,

vocationalsecondaryschools,collegesanduniversities.“Healthservices”ismeasuredbynumbero f hospitalbedspercapital

Populationd e n s i t y isu s e d t o measuret h e a b s o r p t i v e c a p a c i t y o f a n y p r o v

i n c e T h i s proxyisnotonlypresentedforthejobopportunity

inurbanareasbutalsoshowsthepoorertrendinhighman-landratioareas.Inourstudy,wehypothesizethehighp o p u l at i o n densityfosterhighmigrationrate

Anindispensableindicatortoestimatetheimpactsonmigrationisgrossdomesticp r

o d u c t o f e a c h p r o v i n c e T h i s m e a s u r e m e n t c l e a r l y sh ows i t s i m p a c t o n mi