In the context of establishing sustainable use of the planet through emphasis on industrial ecology and natural capitalism, the current roles or activities of ecotoxicologists will probably be abandoned. Furthermore, it is virtually certain that most of these areas of activity will continue to be developed and refined. Major changes and additions that will accommodate industrial ecology and natural capitalism will dramatically enlarge the activities of ecotoxicologists.
42.6.1 Shift from Absence of Harm to Presence of Health
A shift from a concentration on absence of harm to a focus on presence of health will probably follow the developments in the field of human health, which has moved from symptoms of disease and malfunction to attributes of well-being and health. Even so, symptoms of ill health and malfunction will continue to be extremely important, just as they presently are in human medicine.
Literally billions of humans on the planet are malnourished, afflicted by one or more diseases, or need substantive improvement in their health. Similarly, many of the world’s ecosystems are in comparably poor condition and desperately need remedial action. So, the first shift for ecotoxicol- ogists will be in endpoints from those whose presence shows harm or degradation to those whose presence affirms good condition and well-being. Some of these shifts have already occurred at the species level in ecotoxicological testing.
The concept of “health” in ecology, whether at the individual, population, or ecosystem level, necessarily involves value judgments.51 As Nielsen52 states: “In the final analysis, what is considered healthy must be reasonable from biological, physical, ethical, and aesthetic points of view, as determined by people.” Therefore, health is not a scientific determination per se but a social construct, and its defining characteristics will evolve with time and circumstances.
Ecosystems are more than aggregations of individual species. At each level of biological organization, starting from subcellular levels on up to communities and ecosystems, new properties not apparent at lower levels emerge at each level. These emerging attributes will require much developmental effort in the field of ecotoxicology. However, the search will not be random, and it should not be based on the personal preferences of individual investigators or on those attributes most easily measured and amenable to standardization.
The “interest” from natural capital is ecosystem services, which collectively make up the planet’s ecological life-support system. Therefore, natural systems cannot merely continue to exist; they must be in condition for optimal and reliable delivery of these services. More important, each natural system is delivering not one but, typically, a long list of services that ultimately must be assessed in the aggregate. So it has been for human health and so it must be for ecosystem health.
42.6.2 Increased Temporal and Spatial Scales
Another change for ecotoxicologists will occur in increased testing at higher levels of biological organization.53 Tests at levels of biological organization higher than single species, for example, in microcosms, mesocosms, and field enclosures, will continue to be extremely valuable because investigators identify good indications of response thresholds and patterns and can subject test systems to a degree of stress that would be unacceptable in natural systems.
Micro- and mesocosms are used in monitoring complex systems; they are not miniature eco- systems but are constructs that replicate significant cause-and-effect pathways of natural systems.
The process of developing an ecosystem-based capability for ecological risk assessments has been described to illustrate how such units can furnish useful information as well as other sources of system-level information.54 Ecological function and resilience have been espoused as important criteria for environmental impact assessment and ecological risk analysis.55 Microcosms need not be inordinately expensive, especially if naturally derived microbial communities are used as recep- tors in toxicity testing.56 The uncertainties associated with extrapolating from toxicological responses in laboratory systems to the responses of natural systems have also been described.57 A key issue in this context is the correspondence of a microscale toxicity test to responses to toxicants in natural systems. Various endpoints and thresholds in the field of ecotoxicology are useful in this regard.59 These preliminary developments need to be expanded rapidly and the robustness of the methods and procedures confirmed and validated since this is a key issue for ecotoxicologists in both industrial ecology and natural capitalism.
It seems abundantly clear that, while ecotoxicologists may continue the types of testing already developed, they must be prepared to move outside the laboratory and beyond field enclosures to engage in bioregional assessment and planning. However, for sustainable use of the planet,60 the physical and biological basis for the services provided by nature should not be systematically diminished. To achieve sustainability, the life-support system’s integrity cannot be impaired. At the very least, the ability of natural systems to assimilate societal wastes without themselves being degraded or damaging their ecological integrity must be used but not abused.
Ecological integrity has been defined as the maintenance of the structure and function charac- teristic of a locale.61 Meeting this condition requires that assimilative capacity be quantified and that human society adjust its waste disposal into natural systems so that they remain healthy and suitable for sustained use. An ecological landscape usually consists of a mosaic of habitat types that are interactive and dynamic. Dynamic means that they are constantly changing and they most likely have cyclic behaviors dependent on climate cycles and the like. Ecotoxicologists must, therefore, incorporate more ecological principles into their activities than they presently do, and ecologists must be more aware of this need and the frames of reference used by toxicologists in general. Details on recognizing needs in increased temporal and spatial scales must also be considered.62–64
42.6.3 Achieving a Critical Mass of Qualified Personnel
When the military produces a new tank or plane, it also takes great pains to ensure that appropriate personnel are available to run it, maintain it, repair it, and use it as part of a larger strategic plan. If a public consensus existed for implementing suggestions for ecological restoration and made funds available for doing so, an adequate number of prepared professional personnel would still be lacking.65 The educational system is still a series of petty fiefdoms and tribal units that are often excellent for quality control and teaching activities of specialized disciplines but not for the integration of disparate types of information of the type needed for both ecotoxicology and sustainable use of the planet. Educational courses are often taught and disciplines operate as if each were the only flower facing the sun, and students are badly underprepared for the integration of a wide variety of social, physical, and biological sciences, not to mention economics, engineering, law, and the like. Even major research universities are not particularly aware of designing for quality environments where their interactions with natural systems are concerned. This disparity definitely needs to be changed.
A survey of environmental management systems at North American universities66 has been conducted by considering two components: (1) key areas and major challenges and (2) the posture and behavior of environmental management systems toward environmental issues. Interestingly, only 50 responses were received from an initial mailing of 269, although 18 of these were returned
as undeliverable. This figure alone shows how unaware of, or indifferent to, the environmental crisis these institutions are. Alternatively, one might also assume that many North American universities are quite dependent on extramural funding from sources that might be offended by almost any strong environmental position taken by the university. Responses on the areas of posture and behavior were divided into four major components:
1. Environmental leaders: these people feel that environmental problems do affect the university, and they know where the problems are; as a consequence, they have developed the necessary programs and performance to mitigate environmental problems.
2. Environmental strugglers: these people feel that environmental problems do not affect the univer- sity, and they are not sure where the problems are until they arise; as a consequence, they are struggling to develop an effective environmental management system.
3. Accidental “greens”: these people do not see environmental management systems as a necessary tool because they are not aware of the environmental problems that affect the university; as a consequence, they have not yet considered preventative programs.
4. Environmental dinosaurs: these people feel that environmental issues do not affect their institutions, and they are therefore not aware that there are environmental problems; they do not see environ- mental management systems or any other environmental program as necessary.
Although the survey is more extensive than reported here, these survey responses do not inspire confidence that university graduates will be as prepared as they should be for facing environmental management issues.
An international conference was held in December of 1997 in Thessaloniki, Greece to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Tbilisi Doctrines and to reorient education for sustainability (italics mine) in the 21st century.67 The culmination of this event was a Thessaloniki Declaration — a charter for the future of education for sustainability. In only two of the 29 statements made in the Declaration was the term environmental education mentioned. One of those references suggested that environmental education be referred to as education for environment and sustainability. Scant use of the term environmental education indicates that the term is finding decreasing support in the international community.67 It is noteworthy that sustainability is the word of choice in this Declaration, rather than sustainable development.
Despite the call for total integration of environmental education into all subject areas, few holistic approaches can be found in the United States.67,68 Criticisms69 include assertions that environmental education (1) is based on emotionalism rather than facts, (2) tends to be issue driven rather than information driven, and (3) is politically motivated. The public perception of the environmentalists and environmental education is too frequently associated with emotional activism rather than reasoned argument. People must become better informed about environmental issues and become more literate.
42.6.3.1 Professional Certification
Scientists will almost certainly have an increased role in the societal decision-making processes as long as they use reason and information, even when major catastrophes occur. Professionals must insist that those who label themselves ecotoxicologists must have appropriate credentials. The process of certification is long overdue! Societies must begin the process of certifying professionals in every country at the earliest possible time. As a preliminary step, one might consider three levels of certification: (1) gathering data, (2) grouping data and carrying out quality control practices, and (3) interpreting and analyzing data and making professional judgments, together with design for investigative projects intended to furnish information useful in the decision-making process.
Those sufficiently skilled to carry out particular experiments, especially using standard methods, may not have the background for making professional judgments, especially in areas where extrap- olations are necessary and much professional knowledge is required.
The task of assembling, integrating, and condensing all the information needed for both indus- trial ecology and natural capitalism is unprecedented. For routine measurements, production of standard methods with the usual great detail required by such organizations as the American Society for Testing and Materials will be extremely helpful. However, most ecosystems and ecological landscapes are mosaics and will require different mixtures of standard methods and different temporal and spatial units. Finally, each system will have some unique properties for which standard methods are inappropriate. For these situations, certification of the organizations or individuals generating the information will reduce the uncertainty about its quality. If the certification process is as rigorous as it should be, relatively few individuals and organizations will qualify, certainly not enough to generate the masses of information that now seems necessary.
42.6.3.2 Obtaining Hands-On Experience
The educational system should provide the formal courses necessary in chemistry, statistics, biology, and the like. However, the practical operational experience should be in a laboratory certified in the field of ecotoxicology staffed by experienced professionals in that field. This step is a practice of some other professions and would provide the necessary hands-on experience under supervision. Funding agencies could assist this process by providing fellowships, grants-in-aid, etc.
for students who aspire to become ecotoxicologists.
42.6.3.3 Funding
At present, it appears extremely unlikely that the average person would be willing to pay the costs of ensuring that healthy ecosystems exist to provide the services upon which human society depends. An environmental catastrophe might well be the only means of causing such a massive shift.
The areas of industrial ecology, natural capitalism, and other terms referring to the same concepts have two major components: (1) preserving the planet’s ecological life-support system and its services to human society and (2) maintaining and preserving natural capital, which is the source of the planet’s economic and societal well-being and which is responsible for the life-support services. Once the need for preserving the planet’s ecological life-support system is recognized and ecotoxicology and other necessary fields are given the respect that is justified by the enormity of this undertaking, funding will become available. The exact means of doing so will be a function of the perceived urgency, which will, in turn, be closely related to the size of the catastrophe that results from crossing the threshold. In the meantime, prudence dictates allotting more significant funding to education at all levels so that the basics of science, engineering, and other necessary fields are well established in the generations to come.
42.6.4 Demographic Change
Demographers expect the human population to grow to at least 9 billion by 2050, and resource depletion is inevitable unless restoration of natural capital becomes a major societal goal globally.
Ecotoxicologists are more accustomed to preventing damage than repairing ecological damage, but now they must have their mission increased to encompass both activities. Ecotoxicology studies the effects of stress and restoration ecology rehabilitation after stress; thus, the two fields of study have more in common than is initially apparent.
Even if human society embraces the quest for sustainable use of the planet to the degree that (1) major behavioral changes occur in the use of energy and the establishment of a robust energy policy, (2) demographic transition to lower fertility is hastened, and (3) less per-capita resource use is embraced, ecotoxicologists will still be challenged to estimate what is likely to happen before it is too late to do anything about it. On a more positive note, present methodology, predictive modeling, validation of predictive models, and determination of ecotoxicological effects at the
ecosystem and landscape level can clearly be vastly improved. These improvements will substan- tially reduce but not eliminate uncertainty, but they will not occur until those politicians who control research budgets understand that these efforts require long-term, consistent funding and interdisciplinary research teams accustomed to working together and able to do so for long periods of time. Finally, it is worth reemphasizing that although the present system of higher education has made remarkable strides toward multidimensional integration of knowledge, students are still woefully unprepared for the new challenges they will encounter after graduation.
42.6.5 Ecological Thresholds
The goal of natural capitalism is sustainable use of the planet. Industrial ecology also has a sustainability goal, but it is focused primarily on industrial systems, which will play an important role in achieving sustainability. Toxicologists in general and ecotoxicologists in particular have long recognized that the only way to determine a precise threshold is to cross it. Most laboratory toxicity tests are designed with this determination in mind, so that a range of concentrations producing a 100% effect (e.g., death or mortality) to 0% effect (e.g., 100% survival) are customary.
This strategy is also designed to find the critical range for more complicated test systems, such as micro- and mesocosms. However, the biosphere is a complex, multivariate system not amenable to the type of testing with which ecotoxicologists are familiar. Societal decisions on the use of fossil fuels and the like are the equivalent of a major global experiment in which human society is a part of the test system.
In a statement that will be all too familiar to ecotoxicologists, but less so to politicians and citizens, Costanza70 has written: “The problem is that one knows one has a sustainable system only after the fact.” Stated in terms more familiar to ecotoxicologists, researchers can estimate these thresholds and, using the precautionary principle, attempt to avoid approaching them too closely.
Although the precautionary principle has been endorsed by the United Nations, Germany, and a number of other political entities, it has not been widely implemented. Arguably, the most probable reason for this lack of implementation is that it is viewed as an obstacle to economic growth; as a consequence, the most probable scenario is that the various biospheric thresholds will be found only by crossing them. Crossing some of these thresholds is likely to be catastrophic; crossing others may cause minor, local, or regional damage.
Illustrative examples can be taken from history of crossing sustainability thresholds.71 One key lesson from history is that most irrigation-based civilizations fail. Irrigation is a cornerstone of present-day agriculture and has been a major force in human advancement for at least 6000 years.
Will these systems escape the fate of their defunct antecedents?71 In addition to this example, other interesting information has been gathered about the ecological collapse of ancient civilizations.72–74 Such information should alert human society to the dangers of overconfidence.
42.6.6 Environmental Surprises
In the present enlightened state of computer technology, the Internet, and global communica- tions, will there be environmental surprises? Do not count on political leaders to be saviors rather than managers! As historian Edward Gibbon9 stated at the end of the first volume of Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire: “The people became indifferent or inured to the Emperor’s debauches so long as he paved the roads and remitted taxes.” If everyone were interested in both natural capitalism and industrial ecology, would there be any environmental surprises likely to push the environment across a crucial threshold? Bright75 discusses three types of environmental surprises:
1. A discontinuity is an abrupt shift in a trend or previously stable state; the abruptness is not necessarily apparent on a human scale; what counts is the time frame of the processes involved.
2. A synergism is a change in which several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up individual or separate effects.
3. An unnoticed trend, even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.
As a consequence, there is a high probability, almost a certainty, that one or more crucial environmental thresholds will be crossed, even if the precautionary principle is implemented to a much greater degree than it is now. Ecotoxicologists must be prepared to detect evidence that a threshold has been crossed — not in a laboratory, but in natural systems. This role is quite different from the one most ecotoxicological professionals now assume. Natural systems are generally characterized by considerable variability, and one must be able to distinguish between normal variability and the onset of a new trend. In addition, when there is persuasive evidence that a threshold has been crossed, one must use all the evidence available to estimate the probable location of the threshold.
Ecotoxicologists must be prepared to detect the crossings of such thresholds at every level, from local to global, and must also be prepared to give some advice about how the system may be brought below the adverse response threshold. Ecotoxicologists might justifiably complain that this responsibility is a huge expansion of their present role, which will bring them into an area in which there is even higher uncertainty than the present range of responsibilities. They can also properly claim that they are presently unprepared for this new role and need much time to do so. No professional group is well prepared for this particular role, even though ecotoxicologists are particularly well prepared for thresholds involving ecosystems. Arguably no other group, even classical ecologists, is so well acquainted with stress thresholds, especially those involving hazard- ous chemicals and other comparable stressors. Collaboration with those working at the systems (rather than the single-species) level is definitely advisable.
42.6.7 Design for Quality Environment
For the past 100 years, both human population growth and economic growth have accelerated, and, although the former shows some signs of moderating (but by no means stopping, with 81 million additional living persons annually), economic growth with increased consumption of resources is accelerating even further with globalization. The dimensions of these changes are difficult even for the environmentally literate to comprehend, and for the affluent, life is good and change unthinkable. The world’s millions who are living in poverty, who are ill-housed and ill-fed, have insufficient political clout or resources to initiate the major changes required. Still, there are grounds for cautious optimism as a consequence of industrial ecology, natural capitalism, and the moderate portions of the green environmental movement.
Society would do well to reflect on who or what will drive the engines of change from the present practices to the new sustainability paradigm. Lemann76 discusses power elites, and in his concluding statement, he notes that rapid economic change and concentration of power have provoked strong, unpredictable reactions. People feel left out and try to use politics and government to slow down the pace of change and to build intermediate structures that will protect them. However, the economic boom, by so profoundly streamlining America’s operations, is creating propitious conditions for a powerful counter reaction. Alternatively, severe economic crisis, such as droughts in North America’s grain-producing areas, total depletion of surface water and groundwater for agricultural purposes, salinization of soils, or some other environmental changes, may produce consequences so severe that human society’s relationship with natural systems is reexamined and restated. In some cases, citizens’ groups have filed lawsuits to delay or halt environmental destruc- tion. If the consequences of environmental damage reach catastrophic levels in the minds of enough people, then gross environmental damage, and even moderate environmental damage, may become taboo,77 as is the case with nuclear weapons. If this aversion to nuclear weapons can grow in