Tài liệu The Human Development Indices docx

The Human Development Indices• The HDI Human Development Index - a summary measure of human development... The Human Development Indices• The HDI Human Development Index - a summary meas

Calculating the Human Development Indices

The Human Development Indices

• The HDI (Human Development Index)

- a summary measure of human development

The Human Development Indices

• The HDI (Human Development Index)

- a summary measure of human development

• The GDI (Gender-related Development Index)

- the HDI discounted for gender inequality

The Human Development Indices

• The HDI (Human Development Index)

- a summary measure of human development

• The GDI (Gender-related Development Index)

- the HDI adjusted for gender inequality

• The GEM (Gender Empowerment Measure)

- Measures gender equality in economic and political

participation and decision making

The Human Development Indices

• The HDI (Human Development Index)

- a summary measure of human development

• The GDI (Gender-related Development Index)

- the HDI adjusted for gender inequality

• The GEM (Gender Empowerment Measure)

- Measures gender equality in economic and political

participation and decision making

• The HPI (Human Poverty Index)

- Captures the level of human poverty

Walk through the steps of calculating –

• The HDI (Human Development Index)

- a summary measure of human development

• The GDI (Gender-related Development

Index)

- the HDI adjusted for gender inequality

Why Statistics?

“ …as long as we are unable to put our arguments into figures, the voice of our science, although occasionally it may help to dispel gross errors, will never

be heard by practical men They are,

by instinct, econometricians all of them,

in their distrust of anything not

amenable to exact proof.”

-J.A Shumpeter 1933

“The common sense of econometrics.” Econometrica 1:5-12

Why HDI?

Human development accounting vs a summary measure –

“Give me a measure – a single measure –

which is as vulgar as GNP per capita, but not

as insensitive to broader aspects of human life.”

- Mahbubul Haq

?A advocacy tool

?Simplicity and focus

?A Composite combines economic

+ social factors

The basic steps

Note the similarity between HDI and GDI in

components

methodology

The 3 steps to creating the index

What dimensions of human development to

include

What indicators to use to capture these

dimensions

How to combine these dimensions and

indicators to create one number

Dimensions A long and

healthy life

Being Knowledgeable

A decent standard

of living

Calculating the HDI

Indicators

A long and healthy life

Lifeexpectancy

Being Knowledgeable

Literacy

&

Enrolment

A decent standard

of living

GDP Per capita

Calculating the HDI

Life expectancyindex

Being Knowledgeable

Literacy

&

Enrolment

Education Index

A decent standard

of living

GDP Per capita

IncomeIndex

Calculating the HDI

Life expectancyindex

Being Knowledgeable

Literacy

&

Enrolment

Education Index

A decent standard

of living

GDP Per capita

IncomeIndex

Calculating the HDI

Life expectancyindex

Being Knowledgeable

Literacy

&

Enrolment

Education Index

A decent standard

of living

GDP Per capita

IncomeIndex

Calculating the HDI

HDI

? HDI =

the simple average of the three dimension indices

The indicators for the dimensions

Health:

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Knowledge:

Adult literacy rate (%)

Combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (%)

Standard of living:

GDP per capita (PPP US$)

The critical step – calculating the dimension index: Measurement of relative performance

For each indicator a minimum and maximum

goalposts must be defined

Actual value

of indicator i for country j

of indicator i | -* -| of indicator i

Each indicator must be normalized to a value

between 0 and 1, based on a country’s relative

position

Actual value (X i,j ) – Minimum of X i Index (i, j) = -

Maximum of X i – Minimum of X i

Defining the goalposts

40,000 100

GDP per capita

(PPP US$)

100 0

Gross enrolment

ratio (%)

100 0

Adult literacy rate

(%)

85 25

Life expectancy

(years)

Maximum Minimum

Indicator

Calculating the dimension indices

1 Life expectancy index

2 Education index – a weighted

average of Adult literacy index +

Gross enrolment index

3 Income index

1 The Life Expectancy Index

2 The Education Index

100 - 0 100

GER - 0 GER GER index = - = -

100 – 0 100

2 The Education Index (continued)

The Education index is a weighted

average of the ALR index and the GER index

Education index =

2/3 ALR index + 1/3 GER index

3 The Income Index

The GDP per capita (PPP$) is

transformed to log (GDP per capita) – meaning increases of income at lower levels have a greater impact on the

income index

With goalposts for income [100, 40,000]

log (GDP) – log (100) Income index = -

log (40,000) – log (100)

Creating the income index

Creating the HDI

HDI = 1/3 Life expectancy index

+ 1/3 Education index

+ 1/3 Income index

Or

life expectancy + education + income

index index index

HDI =

-3

Example: calculating HDI for Brazil 2000

Data:

Life expectancy - 67.7 years

Adult literacy rate - 85.2%

Gross enrolment ratio* - 80%

GDP per capita - 7,625 (PPPUS$)

(source: Human Development Report 2002)

* Data refer to 1998.

Example: calculating HDI for Brazil 2000

Step 1: Life expectancy index

Recall

Life expectancy – 25 Life expectancy index = -

85 – 25 For Brazil: Life expectancy = 67.7 years

67.7 – 25 Life expectancy index = - = 0.71

85 - 25

Example: calculating HDI for Brazil 2000

Step 2: Education index

Example: calculating HDI for Brazil 2000

Step 3 Income index

Recall:

log (GDP) – log (100) Income index = -

log (40,000) – log (100) For Brazil: GDP per capita (PPP US$) = 7,625

log (7,625) – log (100) Income index = - = 0.72

log (40,000) – log (100)

Example: calculating HDI for Brazil 2000

Step 4 HDI

Recall:

life expectancy + education + income index index index HDI = -

3 For Brazil: Life expectancy index = 0.71

Education index = 0.83 Income index = 0.72

0.71 + 0.83 + 0.72 HDI = - = 0.757

3

Enrolment (1/3)

Example: HDI for Brazil 2000

• Brazil ranks 73rd among 173 countries in

HDR2002 (among the medium HD countries)

• Brazil lags behind many other Latin American

countries (e.g., Chile-38, Mexico-54, 69)

Venezuela-• Brazil has experienced continued improvement

in HDI since 1975 (0.644 in 75 – 0.713 in 1990 – 0.757 in 2000)

Applications: Trend analyses

E.g Table 2 Human development index trend

Based on same methodology and comparable time series data!!

Avoid constructing HDI trend by

combining HDI estimates from

consecutive HDRs!

change in methodology revision to data

variation in country coverage

? Long term broad trend, not adequate for tracking

short term impact of policies

AVOID!

• HDI comparisons: global vs national (Lebanon NHDR 1998)

Applications: Trend analyses

Applications: Disaggregating HDI

Using HDI to study inequality

-In South Africa, HDI is 0.531 for Northern Province

compared to 0.712 for Gauteng

In India, HDI for ‘untouchables’ (0.239) is almost

half that for Brahmins (0.439)

In the United States, HDI for

Disaggregating HDI – a few reminders

When studying subgroups within a country,

* may define nationally-relevant

goalposts

* PPP not necessary unless comparing with

other countries

? powerful tool when combining

disaggregated HDI and trend analyses

? But how far to go?

Innovations with HDI in NHDR

Innovations with HDI in NHDR

Example: South Africa HDR 1998 - HDI adjusted to reflect impact of HIV/AIDS

The Gender-related Development Index (GDI)

? HDI measures average level of

achievement ? Need for separate

indicator(s) to measure inequality

between groups

gender disparities in the three

dimensions

Tradeoff between higher average level of

achievement and greater gender equality

Social preference: how much weight given to

the objective in achieving equality

Creating GDI - Overview

Same components as the HDI

After calculating dimension index for

each sex – they are combined in a way to penalize gender equality

? Equally distributed equivalent

achievement index

The GDI is calculated by taking the

unweighted average of the three equally distributed indices

The gender-adjusted indices for each

dimension

When calculating level of achievement ( in a

specific dimension ), the GDI imposes a penalty for inequality between men and women

The gender-adjusted indices for each

dimension - A closer look

What does GDI reveal?

The Differences between GDI and HDI depends on how much penalty is

imposed on the differences between men and women

GDI goes down when achievement

levels of both men and women go down

or when the disparity between their

achievement increases

How to calculate GDI?

Three steps:

1 calculate gender-specific index for life

expectancy, education, and income as in HDI

Note * life expectancy goalposts vary by gender

* Earned income by gender needs to be estimated (CRUDE!)

2 combine the gender-specific indices to

obtain the gender-adjusted indices for each of the three dimensions

3 calculate GDI as simple average of the

three gender-adjusted indices

Goalposts for GDI

40,000 100

GDP per capita

(PPP US$)

100 0

Gross enrolment

ratio (%)

100 0

Adult literacy rate

(%)

Female: 87.5Male: 82.5

Female: 27.5Male: 22.5

Life expectancy

(years)

Maximum Minimum

Indicator

Gender-adjusted index: One example

Brazil – life expectancy

Data:

Life expectancy: Female - 72.0 Male - 64.1

Population share: Female – 0.506 Male – 0.494 Goalposts: Female [27.5, 87.5] Male [22.5, 82.5]

Life expectancy index:

Female = (72.0-27.5) / (87.5-27.5) = 0.742

Male = (64.1-22.5) / (82.5-22.5) = 0.693

Gender adjusted life expectancy index =

{(0.506*0.742 –1 ) + (0.494*0.693 –1 )} –1 = 0.717

Estimated earned income by gender: Overview

Data required:

Female to male wage ratio (non-agricultural)

Female and male shares of economically active population Female and male population

GDP per capita

Assumption:

Share in wage bill = income share

4 Steps:

Calculate total GDP = GDP per capita * total population

Estimate female (male) share of wage bill

Estimate total earned income for females (males)

Estimate per capita earned income for females (males)

Estimated earned income by gender: One example

342

0 1

59 )]

9 40 (

75

0

[

) 9 40 (

75

Economically active

population - % Female

Female share of earned income

Ethiopia (HDR2002) –

Estimating female share of earned income

454 649

, 31

) 544 ,

022 ,

42 (

342

Calculating the GDI – the final step

751

0 3

) 701

0 ( )

834

0 ( )

717

Calculating the GDI – the final step

751

0 3

) 701

0 ( )

834

0 ( )

717