Democratization in taiwan implications for china”

In terms of time: The thesis will focus on researching the position of Taiwan inthe United States and China relationship as well as analyzing factors influencing thepolicy of two countr

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

1 Background

If the Soviet Union and the United States were the two key players controllingworld politics in the Cold War, the post Cold War witnesses the rise of China and US-Sino relationship has become high in the political agenda The relationship betweenthe “Lonely Super power” – U.S and the “Emerging Power”- China is as a result thefocus of many scholars

Being formed and developed from the Cold War, U.S.-Sino relationship isbelieved to be one of the most complex in contemporary politics because it is impacted

by many factors, e.g from human rights, fare trade issues to the matter of nuclear

weapons proliferation (Ying, 2001) Among many factors, the Taiwan issue is

considered as the most sensitive one It is suggested by many scholars that Taiwan can

be the factor that can push US and China into fierce confrontations (Lap, 2001) Being

a neighbour of China and having territory conflict with this big neighbour (over theSpratly islands, Vietnam has a need to have a better understanding of China includingthe strategic relationship between China and the U.S from the Taiwan issueperspective Therefore, I decided to take the topic of “Taiwan in the U.S.-Sinorelationship after the Cold War” for my graduation thesis

book titled “Mainland, China, Taiwan and the 1995-1996 Crisis” Martin L Lasater,

and Peter Kien-hong Yu (2000) also offered an interesting research on Taiwan's

security after the Deng era (The Taiwan Issue in Sino-American Relations) With the

end of Cold War, the main confrontation between the two blocs- the U.S led capitalistand the USSR led socialist bloc disappeared and the political chessboard has changedfrom the trans-Atlantic to Asia Pacific region This also changed the focus of manyscholar into Asia Pacific in particular the relation between the U.S and China Theissue of Taiwan has, thus, drawn much more academic attention especially when it isconsidered as a potential threat to the security in East Asia and can easily cause directconfrontation between the U.S and China The unsolved question of Taiwan’s future

is also an area attracting a wealth of research given the increasing democratizationtrend in Taiwan Many scenarios have been outlined by the U.S and China scholars.Steven Tsang (2006) has attempted to explain and analyse the driving forces behind,the methods and consequences of China using force to reunify Taiwan in a book titled

“Democratization in Taiwan: Implications for China” Also, he anticipates the cost of

war to China Other scenarios are outlined taken into consideration the comparison ofarm force between the PRC and ROC and the U.S intervention (see L Lasater, andKien-hong Yu (2000))

This thesis endeavors to provide a general view and comprehensive analysis theissue of Taiwan To that end, the view point of three related parties and respectivescholars will all be considered

3 Research questions and scope

The thesis “The Issue of Taiwan in the Sino-U.S relationship” is set out toaddress the following research questions:

What is the policy of related parties, i.e the U.S., China and Taiwan towardTaiwan issue?

How have U.S and China realised their Taiwan policy?

What could be the prospects for Taiwan in the next 50 years?

The above mentioned questions will be discussed within the thesis scope asfollows:

In terms of time: The thesis will focus on researching the position of Taiwan inthe United States and China relationship as well as analyzing factors influencing thepolicy of two countries in the post Cold War era.

In terms of content: The thesis will point out the development relations of threeparties involved- the U.S.- China- Taiwan On the basis of analysing the challengesand advantages, the thesis suggests some scenarios for Taiwan issue in the next 50years

4 Research method and Materials

The thesis will employ a qualitative method with content analysis focusing onsecondary data, including:

Some translated book

Some thesis from Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

Articles, journals, prestigious journals of research institutes such as: AmericanToday, Institute of Chinese Studies, International Studies, etc

However, it should be noticed that there are some inherent limitations in theavailability of materials on political science in Vietnam and particularly in Hue

5 Contribution

Being the relationship between a super-power and an emerging power, U.S.-Sinorelationship would definitely have significant impacts on world politics in general andAsia-Pacific region in particular A research on Taiwan in the United States and Chinarelationship is expected to provide a deeper view over this powerful relationship fromthe perspective of the Taiwan issue In addition, the thesis is also expected to supportthe planning and adjusting Vietnamese policy toward China, our powerful neighborwith historical complicated relations

Last but not least, the thesis is a general study about the Taiwan issue after theCold War Being the first thesis of International Studies Department of HueUniversity, the thesis is expected to be the very first study in this topic, generalizing,analyzing the role of Taiwan in the U.S and China policy

6 Thesis structure

The Thesis “The Issue of Taiwan in the Sino-U.S Relationship” will bestructured into three chapters:

Chapter 1: History of Taiwan issue: the chapter would like to give some basic

information about the Taiwan issue since Cold War Specifically, the chapter will give

an overview of the origin of Taiwan issue after the People Democracy of China’s(PRC) establishment Some key events will also be listed to portray the process oftriangle U.S.-Taiwan-China relations in the Cold War

Chapter 2: The policy of involved parties (the U.S., China and Taiwan) over the

Taiwan issue: This chapter will focus on analysing polices which have been applied

for Taiwan and analysing Taiwan factor in the U.S.-Sino relationship

Chapter 3: Scenarios for Taiwan future: The last chapter will offer three

scenarios for Taiwan’s future, including: 1) China uses forces to reunify Taiwan; 2)China manages to return Taiwan in peace; and 3) Taiwan gains independence

CHAPTER II HISTORY OF TAIWAN ISSUE

1 The establishment of the Taiwan Strait

Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China (ROC), is China's largest islandand located approximately 100 miles off the Fujian coast of China It is an oceanicnation of 23 million people with a combined area of approximately 36,000 sq km Itcomprises the main island of Taiwan, the archipelagoes of Penghu (the Pescadores),Kinmen (Quemoy), and Matsu, and a number of other islands Taiwanese economy isconsidered as one of the highest trade/GNP ratios in the world in 1985 with its GNP of

$ 57 billion and total volume of trade of $51 billion (Lasater, 1986)

Taiwan is a territory of China which was invaded by Japan in 1895 In the war togain Taiwan, the Communist party and Nationalist party supported each other to fight

against Japan With the end of World War II in 1945, Japan was defeated and forced to

return Taiwan for China At the time of Taiwan being returned for China, theNationalist party did not cooperate to the Communist party This led to the Chinesecivil war in three years (1946-1949) In the civil war, the United States administrationsupported military, money for the Chiang forces (Nationalist Party) in order to deterChinese communist revolution However, the civil war was out of the U.S.’s control.The Communists successfully defeated the Nationalist and forced them run away toTaiwan The People’s Republic of China has been established on 1st October 1949 Inthe same year, being supported by the U.S., the Republic of China has been established

in December 1949 in Taiwan Since then, two different political regimes have been existed in parallel- the People’s Republic of China in the mainland and Republic ofChina in Taiwan Within this thesis, the People’s Republic of China will be referred asChina and the Republic of China will be referred as Taiwan

co-Since then, there have been a lot of efforts from China to return Taiwan and from

US to protect its important ally This has led to ups and downs in Sino-U.S.relationship which will be reviewed in the next section

2 Some main events related to the Taiwan Strait in the Cold War

On 25 June 1950 the Korean War broke out Being afraid of the expansion ofcommunism to East Asia U.S President Truman declared the "neutralization of theStraits of Formosa" The Seventh Fleet was sent into the Straits in order to prevent theisland from any the PRC’s attack Since then Taiwan has been placed under U.S.

military protection In the 1950s of the 20th century, the conflicts concerning Taiwanhave further deteriorated U.S.-China relations Typically, there were 2 crises: 1954-

1955 and 1958 which led to the military confrontation involved all three parties

The first Taiwan Strait crisis (1954-1955)

It was a short armed conflict that took place between the governments of the PRCand ROC in the island of Quemoy and Matsu after the U.S lifted its blockade ofTaiwan After placed Taiwan under U.S protection by sending the Seventh Fleet to theisland, the Truman administration had resisted calls by hard-liners to “unleash ChiangKai-shek” But shortly after his inauguration, on 2 February 1953 PresidentEisenhower lifted the U.S Seventh Fleet's blockade which had prevented Chiang’sforce from attacking mainland China under the Truman administration, makingpossible Nationalist attacks on mainland Being afraid of abandoned; in August 1954Chiang reacted by placing 58,000 troops to Quemoy and 15,000 Matsu Zou En-lai,the Incumbent Prime Minister of the PRC declared that Taiwan must be liberated.Then, the U.S warned PRC against action against Taiwan But on 3rd September 1954began an artillery bombardment of Quemoy, and the Communist planes bombed theTachen islands This incident has put the Taiwan issue into such a serious situationthat in September 1954 the U.S Joint Chiefs of Staff suggested the possibility the use

of nuclear weapons against China However, President Eisenhower refused to use thispossibility or use of American troops to resolve the crisis On 2nd December 1954, theU.S and ROC signed the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), officialise the strategicsecurity cooperation between US and Taiwan After the MDT was ratified by the U.S.Congress in February 1955, the U.S declared that they will use of nuclear weaponsagainst mainland China In the face of a possible nuclear strike by the United Statesand without receiving the support from the Soviet Union ally, China called a ceasefireand negotiation on 23 April 1995 As a result of the conflict, except the losses of both

two sides, the PRC did not “liberate” the Taiwan as Zou En-lai stated, even the nuclearwar was prepared The U.S and ROC firstly clarified their interest by theircommitment in the Mutual Defense Treaty This Treaty has a special meaning toTaiwan because it has successfully achieved that treaty to protect it further Thelegalization of the defense relation between the U.S and ROC set tension period in theU.S.-China- Taiwan relation later on.

The second Taiwan crisis (1958)

It was a conflict between PRC and ROC in which the PRC also shelled theisland of Matsu and Quemoy in the Taiwan Strait The crisis took place in context ofSoviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev visiting China which aimed to force China followthe détente trend Being afraid of being abandoned, the ROC- Chiang announced thatthe Soviet Union and China were planning to employ the use of force into Taiwan Inthis context, on August 23, 1958, the PRC started a massive artillerybombardment of Quemoy and Matsu islands The ROC forces in Quemoy returnedfire and called for help from the U.S Responding to the request of ROC's aid, theU.S reinforced its naval units and ordered naval vessels to protect Quemoy's supplylines based on the U.S.-ROC defense treaty signed in 1954 Moreover, the U.S.replaced some ROC air force F-86 Sabres to new air-to-air missile AIM-9Sidewinder which was more advanced than PRC air forces -major using MiG fightersproduced by the Soviet Union With the dominant of advanced military technology,ten MiGs were shot down by the F-86s in a single day In the aftermath, the artillerycrossfire lasted for 44 days and took approximately 1,000 lives Although the crisis

1958 caused China’s costs and people, China general gained some best objectives,e.g internationalizing the Taiwan question, forcing the U.S to resume ambassadortalks and liberating Taiwan and destroying Chiang’s regime Likewise, with theadvantages as China gained were the disadvantages for Taiwan Since then, Taiwanhas lost strategic support of the U.S which was no longer a place of American vitalinterest To the U.S., although the U.S did not main major caused the crisis, thequestion of “Matsu and Quemoy” became an issue in 1960 American Presidentialelection when Richard Nixon accused John F Kennedy of being unwilling to commit

to using nuclear weapon of the PRC invaded Taiwan.

Nixon’s shock

In the late of 1960s and early of 1970s, the U.S - China relations seemed to beget warmer China sought to increase their power whereas the Soviet Union- Chinarelations started to experience some obstacles Sharing the same concern over theSoviet Union’s expansion, the U.S and China got closer In October of 1971, theRepublic of China’s seat at the United Nations was replaced by the People Republic ofChina (inevitably with U.S.’s support) In 1972, President Nixon while visiting Beijingofficially confirmed U.S.’s position in the Shanghai Communiqué about the Taiwanissue In the communiqué, the Unites States asserted that “one China”, “Taiwan is apart of China” and "the United States Government does not challenge that position(Nga, 2004) Later in December of 1978, the United States accepted the threeprinciples proposed by the Chinese government for the establishment of diplomaticrelations between the two countries As the three principles, the United States shouldsever "diplomatic relations" and abrogate the "mutual defense treaty" with the Taiwanauthorities and withdraw U.S military forces from Taiwan With the U.S.'s acceptingthe three principles led to formally establish the diplomatic relations between the twocountries on 1st January of 1979 in which "The United States of America recognizesthe Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government ofChina Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural,commercial and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan" and "theGovernment of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position thatthere is but one China and Taiwan is part of China" (Joint Communiqué on theEstablishment of Diplomatic Relations, 1979) With the consequence of Nixon'sshock, China achieved its diplomatic relation with the U.S in 1979; however, itsconsequence caused the Taiwan's shock regarding its first effort diplomacy to gainrecognition as a legitimate object (Minh, 2008).The mass of many countries changedtheir support from ROC to PRC The number of countries recognized China as the solelegitimate of China increased from 1- Canada in 1979 to 117 in 1979, while as thesame period, the number of countries maintained their diplomatic relation with the

ROC reduced only 24 in 1979 Other, in 1971, the United Nations replaced the PRC toROC position Especially, the Carter President announced that the U.S will change itsofficial relation to the PRC as well as terminated the mutual defense treaty with theROC 1954 While the U.S.-Sino relations get warmer, the Taiwan got manydifficulties while Taiwan always maintain close relation with the U.S as mention inthe mutual defense treaty and the U.S support behavior since the ROC' sestablishment.

Taiwan Relation Act

However, Taiwan remained an area of U.S interest for its special position in U.S.strategy to deter China as well as the dominant role of the supporting Taiwan forces inthe U.S Congress, three month later, on 10, April of 1979 the United States Congresspassed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which showed obvious support for Taiwan'sposition the triangle relations As stipulated on TRA, the U.S committed that "theUnited States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic ofChina rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined bypeaceful means"; "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other thanpeaceful means "; continued "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character" andmaintained “commercial, cultural and other relations with the people on Taiwan on anunofficial basis” (Taiwan Relations Act, 1979) To the U.S., the TRA is unique amongforeign policy instruments which are strictly speaking a domestic law of the UnitedStates in order to clarify its relations with the POC and U.S after the U.S terminatingits diplomatic relations with the ROC With the pass of the TRA by as a domestic law

of the U.S., the TRA is considered as a unique act The U.S uses its domesticlegislation to institutionalize its relations with Taiwan while this act is not amended orterminated directly under the principle signed with the PRC by the Executive branch

It also reflects the degree to which Congress has been and continues to be concernedwith relations with Taiwan And even more importantly, it underscores how the TRAserves as a direct expression of the views of the American people toward theimportance of maintaining ties with Taiwan To Taiwan, after being shocked by theconsequence of Nixon’s visit China, Taiwan gained their important position in the

U.S policy, especially in the U.S Congress as stipulated by the TRA which the TRA

is one of fundamentally official document of the U.S policy regard the Taiwan issuelater on In contrast to China, although there were no directly military tension ofChina's response to the enact of TRA, China views the TRA as "an unwarrantedintrusion by the United States into the internal affairs of China." and said that the TRAviolated the U.S.-Sino communiqué on normalization and constituted intervention inChina's internal affairs The issue of Taiwan has continued to be a major obstacle inthe PRC’s relation with the United States

The Communiqué 1982

In order to resolve the issue of the U.S arms sales for Taiwan, the U.S andChina negotiated and reached an agreement on 1982, later it became the thirdcommuniqué of two countries in which the U.S Government stated that: "attachesgreat importance to its relations with China, and reiterates that it has no intention ofinfringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, or interfering in China'sinternal affairs, or pursuing a policy of "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan"" and

"does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan" which its armssales to Taiwan would not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms (JointCommuniqué on Arms Sales to Taiwan, 1982) Generally, in the U.S policy, theTaiwan issue is mostly controlled in 3 joint Communiqué: 1972, 1979, 1982 and theTaiwan Relations Act, in which the U.S.'s attitude asserts "one China", remainsunofficial with the ROC and its arm sales commitments defense to Taiwan To China,the Taiwan's unification is a fundamental of China policy

In summary, the 20th century witnessed many détente and tension periods inChina-US-Taiwan triangle relationship This is showed by three crises as mentionedabove In the 21th century, there is not a directly military confrontation through theTaiwan Strait yet Hence, the question is raise whether the three involved parties want

to remain status-quo

CHAPTER III

THE POLICY OF INVOLVED PARTIES (THE UNITED STATES, CHINA AND TAIWAN) OVER THE TAIWAN ISSUE

1 International and Regional Context

a International context

The end of Cold entailed the collapse of socialism in the Soviet Union andEastern European countries The confrontation of bipolar system was fragmented andreplaced by new world order in the post Cold War However, the end of Cold War maynot have brought a peaceful and stable situation of the world as many people desired.Firstly, globalization has created both negative and positive effects First, thismakes the increasing of interdependence among countries The post-Cold war era is aperiod illustrated by the dominance of peaceful, cooperative and developing tendency

of all countries all over the world Globalization has not only increased the cooperation

of many countries, but also caused many challenges It has led to deeper inequality ineconomies; the bigger gap between the rich and the poor and between the developingand developed countries It has also deepened the clash between nationalist and globalidentity, the self-determination of country and the "standards" that superpowers oftenpose to other countries as well as provoking religious extremist forces, separatism andterrorism (Toan, 2001) Hence, in a decade after ending the Cold war, the nationalistdisputes, religious conflicts, civil wars still exist such as the Gulf war in 1990-1991,the Kosovo civil war in 1999, or the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001

With regards to the U.S., the post cold war period has brought about manyadvantages With the collapse of communist bloc in the Soviet Union and EasternEuropean countries, the U.S naturally becomes the only superpower, undertaking theglobal leadership Being exhausting after long-term confrontation with the U.S.,Russia is now in the transition period which will take years to recover their power to

be able to challenge the U.S position Although China is in full development process,the Chinese general power in terms of military, politics and economics will still takedecades to keep up with the U.S Being one of economic center of the world, European

Union has yet been a united political, economic entity It is also the case with theeconomic giant but political dwarf Japan (Son & Du, 2006) Therefore, it is reasonable

to argue that the U.S after Cold War is a superpower without rivals

b Regional context

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the entire nature of the geopoliticallandscape in Asia Pacific region has dramatically changed As mentioned above, theU.S has become the superpower with the military, political, economic and culturaldominance in the world However, at the regional level, the emergence of China, therising of independence of Japan in relation with the U.S., the potential power of Russiashould be considered (Son & Du, 2006)

The region also contains some security factors whose causes are mainly rootedfrom ethnic nationalism and territory disputes Among which are the nuclear issue inKorean peninsula; the dispute over the Spratly Island in South China Sea; the Sino-Japan dispute over Senkaku Island and Japan-Russia dispute over Kuril Island.Separatism is also a challenge to many countries in the region such as China, Russia,Indonesia, Thailand, etc The latest riots in Xinjiang and Tibet, China can be seen as agood example Last but not least, terrorism has just become a new security factor withpotential threats, e.g the terrorist group- Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines

Given the changes of international and regional context, power countries have toadapt their policy Such strategic adaptation includes the U.S and China’sstrengthening of influence in Asia Pacific region For the U.S., Asia Pacific has longbeen an area of interest since it started to get out of isolationism and engaging withinternationalism The U.S first sign of interest in this region is its effort to conveneWashington Conference to share interest in the region in 1921 This strategy wascontinued to be reflected in Containment Doctrine of President Truman In general, theU.S has a vital national interest in maintaining peace, stability, prosperity and itsleadership role in Asia Pacific region (Zagoria, 2004) For China, after the Cold war,China has been emerging as a “regional power” heading to an “international power”

As a result, China has made a lot of efforts to expand its influence, first of all in the

Asia Pacific region China promotes economic exchanges and cooperation with allcountries in region by bilateral and multilateral relations; and joins in regional securityforum to together solve disputes in region in order to build the image of China's

“peaceful rise”

Given this context, the question is where the position of Taiwan in U.S andChina’s policy is This question will be discussed in the next sections

2 The U.S Policy Towards Taiwan

The U.S has the great strategic interest in Asia Pacific Basically, the U.S.considers Asia Pacific as a region in which its core interests are remained These arethe establishment of the U.S leadership in region, the maintenance of peace andstability, and the prevention of the threat of any emerging countries which canchallenge the U.S dominance as well as the insurance of American economic, securityinterest and values However, it seems that the U.S has to face many challenges inpursuing their interests in the region as mentioned above One of the most visiblehindrances is the emergence of China as a “regional power” in terms of economy andpolitics Hence, coping with this challenge, the U.S needs to consider and calculatethe position of Taiwan in its policy In general, the Taiwan issue is of the economic,political and strategic significance in American foreign policy

a The Role of Taiwan in the U.S Strategy

Economic Interest

Taiwan, a major trade partner of the U.S, plays a crucial role in bringing a lot ofeconomic benefits to the U.S The U.S trade deficit with Taiwan ( $ 8.85 billion in1993) was the third largest behind Japan and China Moreover, the total trade betweenthe U.S and Taiwan in 2000 was $ 64.8 billion, making Taiwan the 7th largest U.S.trading partner; and the U.S was Taiwan’s largest trading partner U.S exports toTaiwan reached $24.4 billion, while U.S imports from Taiwan were $40.5 billion(Morrison, 2001) Today, the U.S is essentially the sole source of imported arms for

Taiwan’s military Of the $ 3.5 billion in arm sales to Taiwan between 1993 and 1995,

the U.S share accounted for $3.2 billion From 1991 to 1998, the U.S foreign military

sales agreements with Taiwan totaled $ 9billion while deliveries amounted to $ 12.3billion in the same period (Kerry, 2005) Supporting Taiwan’s economic prosperityand maintaining U.S - Taiwan economic relation have long been the consistent andfundamental policy of all U.S administrations as stated in the 1982 Communiqué that

“the people of the United States would continue to maintain cultural, commercial, andother unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan”

Political Interests

In addition to emormous economic interest, Taiwan plays an important role in theU.S political strategy in the region to deter the emerging China In the post-Cold warera, the emergence of China in its economy and politics is considered as a potentialthreat to the U.S.’s superpower status Chinese economy has been growing by anaverage of 9% since 1979 China’s foreign trade volume increased by 14 times andreached $ 289.9 billion, ranking the world’s top ten trading powers Moreover,Chinese economy’s dynamic has also helped to fuel unprecedented growth in the AsiaPacific With its economic power, China also gained the significant status in manyregional and international organizations Specifically, China is one of the fivepermanent members of the Unites Nation Council, the major partner of ASEANcountries by ASEAN-China…, etc Therefore, China is among the countries with highpotential to challenge the U.S dominance Protecting Taiwan and preventing thecoercive reunification of Taiwan to China is one of US strategies against China Being

an important economy and military force in the region, Taiwan, if being united withChina, would strengthen much further China’s power, which is not what the U.S.would like to see

In addition to preventing the reunification of Taiwan from China, Taiwan is alsoused as a tool for political pressure to China The U.S has long been promotingdemocracy in Taiwan It is not only the matter that democracy promotion is one of theimportant pillars in the U.S foreign policy as it was believed by U.S PresidentWoodrow Wilson to “make the democratic world become more safer” (Woodrowwilson 1913-1921) From a realistic view, the promotion of multi-party democracy in

Taiwan is a U.S strategy against China China is a one-party country and the U.S hastempted to introduce a nearby “smaller” copy of China with “prosperity” and

“democracy” in order to put more pressure on China The White House paper insistedthat “democracy and human rights are not occidental yearnings; they are universalyearnings and universal norms We will continue to press for respect for “human rights

in countries as diverse as China” (Zhang & Montaperto, 1999)

In sum, the U.S has important economic and political interest in Taiwan Itshould be then assumed that the U.S should have a strong and clear Taiwan policy.Nevertheless, the analysis below will show that ambiguity is the fundamental policy ofthe U.S with regards to the Taiwan issue

b The U.S Policy towards Taiwan

Indeed, the strategic ambiguity is the fundamental policy of the United Statestowards the Taiwan question in which the U.S has sought to balance its competinginterests in both China and Taiwan The basis of U.S policy towards Taiwan is formed

on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), the three Communiqués between the UnitedStates and People’s Republic of China (Chang, 2001)

Deterrence side

After the end of Cold war, China, a country with the advantages of large area,largest population and rapidly growing economy became attractive to the U.S Therefore, the U.S has to enlist the Chinese support in order to be able to become atrust partner, or at least does not receive China’s protest of its engagement or theboycott of its goods in the region Besides, the global spread of threats includingnuclear proliferation, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), smuggling, transnationalcrime and terrorism also changed the perceptions of cooperation among nations Withthe rise of anti-Americanism and the complexity of global issues, the U.S needs tosummon the support of many countries in their global war on terror It is no doubt thatChina, one of the key actors in international organizations, can help to meet this U.S.demand For both economic and political reasons, for the time being, the U.S needs to

maintain a good cooperation with China To that end, the U.S cannot support Taiwan

to be a nation state independent from China Typically, through the visit of ChinesePresident Jiang in October, 1997, President B Clinton assured they “did not supportTaiwan membership in the UN or in other international organizations” (Chang, 2001)

In other words, though Taiwan plays an important role in U.S policy in the region, theU.S still needs to consider and balance its interest with China as well The U.S.prevention of Taiwan to become an independent state is a clear demonstration of thiscalculation

Cooperation Side

While maintaining the deterring policy toward Taiwan’s unilateral independencerequest, the U.S still enhance its relation with Taiwan in terms of political diplomacy,cooperation on economy and trade as well as mutual military cooperation

In terms of political diplomacy, the U.S.-Taiwan relation was enhanced throughthe contacts and exchange of visit by leaders of the two countries The U.S alsoencouraged Taiwan to participate in international organizations During the Cold war,although the U.S claimed to end its diplomatic relation with Taiwan in 1978;, U.S.Congress passed the Taiwan Relation Act stating that “The absence of diplomaticrelations or recognition shall not affect the application of the laws of the United Stateswith respect to Taiwan, and the laws of the United States shall apply with respect toTaiwan in the manner that the laws of the United States applied with respect to Taiwanprior to January 1, 1979” The U.S also committed that it would protect Taiwan andthe unification of China would be undertook by the peaceful method Since 1971, U.S.stopped issuing visa for Taiwan’s leaders It was not until 1995 that Lee Teng-hui wasgranted visa by the U.S Congress While there were few visits of Taiwan to the U.S.,visits of the U.S leaders to Taiwan after 1979 increased in number and quality, e.g.U.S Trade Representative Carla Hills in 1992, Secretary of Transportation FedericoPena in 1994, Small Business Administrator Phil Lader in 1996, Secretary of EnergyBill Richardson in 1998, Secretary of Transportation Rodney Slaterin 2000 (Kan,2010) Although in some fields, the U.S considers Taiwan as its ally in serving its

strategic interest in region, the political relation between the two sides seems to belimited in number and quality Generally, the U.S maintains unofficial relation withTaiwan.

The economic and commercial tie between the U.S and Taiwan is much strongerthan political cooperation Being privatization of production and opening market aswell as free trade of economy, Taiwan is considered as a key economic partner to theU.S It has been a thriving and healthy economy in East Asia Moreover, Taiwan isone of the best investment environments in East Asia For many Americanbusinessmen, it is always a good destination Nowadays, the bilateral economic linkbetween the U.S and Taiwan has increased drastically It is estimated that Taiwan isthe United States’s ninth-largest overall trading partner, with two-way trade in 2008reaching up to $61.6 billion Taiwan is also the sixth-largest destination for U.S.agriculture exports about $2.5 billion annually (Dumbaugh, 2009)

The cooperation between the U.S and Taiwan has focused on three aspects:economy, politics and military Out of these basic aspects, military is the closest tie.The obvious manifestation is the weapon purchase between two sides It plays aprominent role in defining the U.S.-Taiwan relations Between 1980 and 2001, U.S.arms sales agreements to Taiwan totaled $ 15.940 billion (Kerry D , 2009) Recently,U.S huge arms sale for Taiwan has been opposed strongly by China because most ofthem are highly modern technological military weapons such as F-16 fighters, M-60Atanks, Knox-class frigates and Patriot Missile Systems This is a strong physical forcewhich can protect Taiwan from mainland China with missile defense capabilities andair defense

In short, considering its interest with both Taiwan and China, the U.S ispursuing an ambiguous policy towards Taiwan In one hand, it maintains unofficialpolitical relations; promotes economic and military cooperation in order to useTaiwan as a means to deter China In the other hand, it prevents Taiwan frombecoming an independent state in order not to get China-its important economic andpolitical partner angry

3 Chinese policy toward Taiwan

a The role of Taiwan in China’s strategy

China has always considered Taiwan territory as an inseparable part of themainland China During 50 years since the establishment of PRC, there has been manytimes which China tempted to use force to reunite Taiwan Hence, unlike the U.S.ambiguity in Taiwan policy, it is clear for China that there is “one China”, no “oneTaiwan, one China”

First of all, China’s leaders are fully aware of the fact that Taiwan’sindependence will strongly support the separation movements in Tibet and Xiang,which might lead to the unwanted consequence of a separated China The collapse ofSoviet Union and the Yugoslav is an example Besides, if the separation movementtakes place widely, this would affect the development process of China (Khang &Tuan, 2003)

Secondly, in China’s policy, Taiwan, which is the “protective shield” and

“strategic gateway” of China in the East, has an important geo-strategic position (Ross,2002) Between Taiwan, Philippines and Manila islands is Philippines Sea which playsimportant strategy in Western Pacific If controlling the Taiwan Strait, China has moreopportunities to expand their influence in three regions Northeast Asia, SoutheastAsia, and Pacific In terms of ocean traffic and maritime, Taiwan locates in the center

of East Asia and Western Pacific This island is an interferent traffic sites betweenNortheast Asia and East Asia Most traffic sea roads from Japan, Korean Strait and theeast coast of China, the east coast of the Russia etc to Southeast Asia, Indian Ocean,Middle East, Europe depend on this place

In addition to playing an important geo-strategic role in China strategy in EastAsia, Taiwan also is a key trade partner with China Taiwan, which is rated among thetop 20 strongest economy of the world with high growth rate and high level of foreignreserves, is one of the strongest economies in Asia It is no doubt that the economicrelations with Taiwan will bring enormous benefits for the development process ofChina In 1993, the two-way trade exceeded $10 billion, and Taiwan’s accumulateddirect investment in China reached $10 billion (Geogre, 1993)

With these strategic interest as well as economic interest of Taiwan as mention

above, the ability of China in resolving the Taiwan issue will affect the prestige ofChina in international politics while China is trying to expand their influence Hence,the issue of Taiwan unification is always one of the top priorities in China’s policy.

b China’s policy toward Taiwan

After Chiang Kai-shek and his forces fled to Taiwan, the Chinese CommunistParty and government made a lot of efforts to unify it to the mainland China.Generally, China’s policy of resolving the Taiwan issue is a complete penetrationprocess which has changed from “use of forces” to peace with “one country, twosystems”, especially recently enacting of “Anti- secession Law”

“Liberating Taiwan by using of forces” was used to be a main principle of Chinapolicy toward Taiwan when the PRC has just established At the Second Conference ofthe First National People’s Congress in 1955, Chinese Premier Zhou Inlay stated thatthere were two possible ways to liberate Taiwan: “one was by war and the other was

by peaceful means” From the early 1950s to 1978, many announcements werereleased by China’s leaders, from the motto “liberating Taiwan in peace” to the ninepoints “peace talk” of the chairman of the National People’s Congress standingcommittee and the eight points of Chinese President Primer Jiang Zeeman (Minh,2003).The Taiwan issue would be resolved soon by negotiating, enhancing theeconomic and cultural exchange between the two sides , allowing Taiwan to maintain

as an “autonomous region” as well as their viewpoint “one China” It is said that therewas some first changes in China’s attitude toward Taiwan issue, typically from theviewpoint of resolving Taiwan issue with the use of forces to reunifying Taiwan bypeaceful measures However, it seemed that China’s viewpoint on the Taiwan issuewas not stated clearly in this period

In 1982, at the People's Congress of China adopted a new Constitution prescribedthe legal of “one country two systems” principal, in which maintained “one China; thecore element of policy was unification nation; co-existing and developing two systemstipulated by China Constitution in allowing special administration zone as well as thepolicy would be undertaken in long-term and ensured by law (Loi, 2004) The birth of

"one country two system" policy facilitated China in returning Hong Kong and Macao.

To Chinese leaders, they also see this applicable to Taiwan

However, the changes of situation in Taiwan Strait forced the China’sgovernment to modify their view in the adaptation of new changes One of changes isthe emerging of the independence movement under the Lee Teng-hui administration in1990s, especially that Chen Sui-bian becomes Taiwan’s president caused the WhitePaper in 2003 to go to a deadlock The pressure of Taiwan’s independence movementreflected the abuse conspiracy by approving its Constitution, referendum etc.Simultaneously, the allied relation between the U.S and Japan also worried ChinaAfter becoming the U.S President, G.W Bush considered China as a “strategiccompetitor” Moreover, China is really concerned about the upgrading of the U.S -Japan Mutual Security Treaty in which the defense of Taiwan is mentioned Facingthese changes from Taiwan politics as well as new changes in the U.S.-China andU.S.-Japan relations , China passed the Anti- secession law in 2005 aiming at theseparation movement in Taiwan in particularly and Xiang and Tibet in generalmovement (Luu, 2004)

4 The Taiwan’s policy

Taiwan politics is controlled by the two major parties- the Kuomintang Party(KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) The Kuomintang Party advocates

“one China” in their platform which is showed during the ruling of KMT the

1949-2000 periods In contrast, the DPP's stance is to achieve Taiwan’s independence asreflected in 2000-2008 period However, with the victory again of the KMT in the

2008 presidency election, Taiwanese people stands for two choices: “unifying withChina” or “Taiwan’s independence”

Arising from different interests, the U.S and China seek for maximum benefit inthe Taiwan issue So far the Taiwan issue is still unsolved However, with the rising ofdemocracy/ democratization process in Taiwan, and the rising of China power as well

as the ambiguity strategic of the U.S., this could open new opportunities for a prospect

of Taiwan It is also the issues to be addressed in the next chapter

CHAPTER IV SCENARIOS FOR TAIWAN FUTURE

Given the complicated situation in the Asia Pacific region and the ambiguity andinconsistency in the policy of involved parties, the future for Taiwan is unclear ThisChapter will suggest the three most possible scenarios for Taiwan future, includingChina uses force to reunify Taiwan; China manages to return Taiwan in peace ; andTaiwan gains independence Advantages and challenges for each scenario will also bediscussed

1 China uses force to reunify Taiwan

In the early 1950s, the PRC had a strong determination to return Taiwan byforceful measures Recognizing that with the then economic and military capacity,such approach was not affordable as well as the complicated U.S.-China-Taiwantriangular relationship, the PRC decided to shift to the use of “peaceful measures” in1960s and then the strategy of “one country two systems” in the 1970s (Giang,2003) However, the option of recovery of Taiwan by force remains open to PRC.This can be seen by the recent “anti-secession law” in 2005 The enactment of Anti-session law carries a meaning that China’s usage of forces measures towards Taiwanwas legalized in any Taiwan’s gaining their independence case Hence, the scenario

of Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan to mainland China can enjoys quite someadvantages especially when China has now become a regional economic, politicaland military power

Advantages

A strong China with a robust economy, political stability, and modern militaryand powerful defense will create favorable conditions for the acquisition of Taiwan.Recently, China's economy has gained many great achievements There are manyimportant factors behind such a rapid economic promotion Firstly, it is an attractive

destination of foreign investors all over the world Next, this country has also carriedout liberalization and reformed its economy since 1978 All of these have really made

a major contribution to the economic success of China One clear evidence is that in

2010, China has become the world's second largest economy Being an economicpower, China absolutely facilitates its progress of reinforcing national defense budget

as well as improving its military strength The most expression is that China increasesits military expenditure for more than 6 times from approximately 14.6 billion in 2000

to 91.5 billion in 2011 (China's Defense Budget, 2011) The rising of economic andmilitary power also helps China have an important influence in regional politics.Hence, regional countries in some level, may not dare to have strong oppositionagainst China if it attacks Taiwan There are now 162 countries which establish theirdiplomatic relations with China whereas even the US does not recognize Taiwan as anindependent country China is also a one of five permanent of the United Nations, akey member in important international organizations such as G7, ASEAN, andAPEC…etc Countries who dare to challenge China would have to calculate itspolitical and economic interests with China

The second advantage that China would enjoy if it attempts to return Taiwan byforce is the strong determination of the leadership All Chinese leaders’ regardlesspolitical views consider the reunification of Taiwan as a vital national interest Thisdetermination has been confirmed and consolidated with the return of Hong Kong in

1997 and Macau in 1999 Chinese leaders see Taiwan as the last obstacle to thecompletion of the communist revolution Additionally, Chinese leaders also highlightthe unification of Taiwan as one of “the three historical tasks of the Chinese people inthe new century” (Frison & Scobell, 2004)

Another advantage which should be taken into consideration is the possiblesupport of Russia, also a political and military power The reason why Russia maysupport China in its forceful recovery of Taiwan is the huge benefits it would gainfrom selling arms to China China has long been one of the most important clients ofRussian arm sales China is now possessing are Su-27 fighter, Kilo-class submarine, S-

300 air-defense missile system…etc (Zhang & Montaperto, 1999) Most of them havebeen purchased from Russia In addition to profits from arm sales, Russia can takeadvantage of China forceful reunification of Taiwan in its efforts against separatistmovement which is threatening the integrity of the country.

Despite important advantages, China still refrains to use force to recover Taiwanbecause it is fully aware of challenges associated with this risky scenario

Challenges

The biggest challenge which makes China hesitate in using force is the U.S.Although China has gained enormous economic, political and military development inrecent decades, its capacity is still far behind the U.S., the only recognized superpower

in the world Therefore, China has to take into account U.S.’s attitude toward Taiwanissue and it is clearly that China will face the vehement opposition from the U.S TheU.S maintains its strategic interest in Taiwan in particular and Asia Pacific in general.The U.S would also see China’s forceful recovery of Taiwan as an action to challengethe U.S hegemony So if China uses its military to annex Taiwan, the U.S obviouslywill not allow this action occurs Based on the Taiwan Relation Act in 1979, the U.S.will support its military, weapons to defend Taiwan In that case, China would have tofight in two fronts One is Taiwan, which is not easy because Taiwan has longreceived a lot of military support from U.S and would receive even more in case it is

in a war with China The second front is with the U.S In the worst case for China, theU.S might send troops to support Taiwan as it used to support South China in theKorea war in 1953 Even if the U.S might not involve directly to the war, the Chinawould still face a lot of political and economic sanctions which China has experienced

in the case of Tiananmen Square in 1989 China was then embargoed by the U.S andWestern countries with the reason of China’s government violating human right anddemocracy issue by attacking Chinese civilians, especially the youth Until now, thearms embargoes by the U.S and Western countries in China have not lifted completely,which effects to China’s voice in international politics as well as the modernization ofChina’s military ability

The forceful reunification of Taiwan will not only anger the U.S., a superpowerand Chinese most important economic partner, but it will also trigger the anxiety in theAsia Pacific region and will definitely damage the image of a “peaceful emergingpower” that China has been promoting The theory of China’s Peaceful Rise is raised

by Zheng Bijian- one of a China’s leading intellectuals (Bijian, 1997) AccordinglyBijian remains committed to a “peaceful rise” in which brings its people out of poverty

by embracing economic globalization and improving relations with the rest of theworld However, the rising of China’s power in posing its military coercion towardTaiwan makes countries in region rethink the peaceful rise of China as well increasetheir concern and suspicion toward China A possible question could be what nextafter Taiwan A predictable consequence is an arm race in the region where countriesseek to improve their military capacity to be able to protect itself

To sum up, given such critical challenges, for the time being, the recovery ofTaiwan by force is not an ideal option for China Still, this scenario remains valid and

in my opinion, it could happen when China gains a great economic development,modern military in the next 50 years According to John Haws worth and GordonCookson (2008)- who are the authors of “The World Order in 2050”, they predict thatChina will become the world’s largest economy in 2032, with a growth to be 20percent larger than the United States by 2050 Japan Today predicts China’sexpenditures will grow double to 1.41 trillion Yuan in 2020 and triple to 2.30 trillion

in Yuan in 2030 If there is some provoking action of Taiwan’s independence by then,China may be capable to use forces to unify Taiwan

2 China manages to return Taiwan in peace

Given the challenges in the first scenario, the peaceful measures seem to be apreferred one and it does enjoy a lot of advantages from both PRC and ROC

Advantages

The first advantage lies in the willingness of Taiwan leadership and people to beunited with the mainland Both Chiang Kai-shek and his son Chiang Ching-kuo kept

the dream of “unification with mainland” and such idea remains strong in the Taiwanpeople and leadership (Giang, 2003).

Indeed, although DPP favors independence for Taiwan, KMT, the ruling partyhas the tendency toward a unified China This is the heritage that KMT had fromChiang Kai-sek and it has been maintained during the party’s ruling in Taiwan from

1949 to 2000 Gaining back the power from DPP in 2008, KMT continues itspersistent approach with regards to the issue of Taiwan’s reunification to China Therewere many visits of the KMT leaders to China The KMT leaders made a historicalone to China in April 2005 led by Lien Chan after 56 years for separation due toChinese civil war The message of Lien’s visit was to formally end hostilities with theChinese Communists, ease recently strained cross-Strait tensions as well as promoteeconomic ties between two sides (Xinhua, 2005) At the same year, in May, there wasanother Chairman of People First Party (PFP) - an ally of the KMT in Pan-Bluecoalition to Beijing Jame Soong stated that “Taiwan independence” has never been anoption for the PFP as it would only bring war and disaster (Xinhua, 2005) The KMTleaders threatened to take legal actions against the DPP if the “freedom to advocateindependence” clause were adopted into the charter in the year of 1980 (The DPPDebates Taiwan's Future, 1988) The peaceful reunification of Taiwan, as a result,could earn some support from KMT as long as it manages to meet the requirements ofKMT (Giang, 2003)

Another advantage lies in the determination of Chinese leadership and people.Such determination is to reunite Taiwan by all means including forceful measures asmentioned above or by peaceful means The second option has become more clearly atthe beginning of the 20th century when China started to use soft power, i.e economicintegration and cultural exchanges as attraction to Taiwan people (deLisle, 2010)

“Three direct links” of postal, commercial and transportation were firstly proposed in

1979 and “Four exchanges” also proposed which included relatives, tourists, academicgroups, cultural groups and sports representatives at the same time The policy of “ThreeDirect Links” and “Four Exchanges” has for the first time after 30 years of separation,given the opportunity for people across the Taiwan Strait to visit and exchanges

relations (China's Policy on "Three Direct Links" Across the Taiwan Straits, 2003) In

2008 the “Three Direct Links” were restored with the commencement of direct flights,shipping and post In addition, the economic interdependence between two sides acrossthe Strait has increased significantly In the last 20 years, the economic and tradeexchanges has multiplied; two-way trade amounted to $32 billion in 2001, while Taiwanbusiness people have cumulatively poured roughly $60 billion of contract-investingcapital into the mainland Chinese market China surpasses the United States to becomethe largest export partner with Taiwan (Chao, 2003) Additionally, many culturalexchanges across the Strait are also encouraged, such as many visits between two sides.Typically in 2001 there were 3,441,960 trips of the Taiwanese people to the mainland(Chao, 2003) As it was noted by In short, China has become more and more attractive

to Taiwan pe.ople both in terms of business opportunities and the desire to be with theirfellow-country men Therefore, China can take advantage of this attraction to call for areunification in peace

Last but not least, the vision of getting independence for Taiwan is so dull giventhe fact that it is not and it will not be recognized by international communities as anindependent nation state (this scenario will be discussed later in this thesis) Thereseems to be two options left for Taiwan, to be reunited in force or to be reunited inpeace and an easy answer should be in peace