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Using the Theory: Barriers to Catch-Up Growth in the Poorest Countries

Using the Theory: 2008 to 2011:

The Recession and the Long Slump

Using the Theory:

The Story of Two Recessions

Robert E Hall

Department of Economics, Stanford University

Department of Economics, New York University

Australia Brazil Japan Korea Mexico Singapore Spain United Kingdom United States

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2 Scarcity, Choice, and Economic Systems 24

Part ii: markets and Prices

3 Supply and Demand 52

4 Working with Supply and Demand 89

Part iii: macroeconomics: basic

Concepts

5 What Macroeconomics Tries to Explain 121

6 Production, Income, and Employment 134

7 The Price Level and Inflation 172

Part iV: long-run macroeconomics

8 The Classical Long-Run Model 198

9 Economic Growth and Rising Living

13 Money, Banks, and the Federal Reserve 356

14 The Money Market and Monetary Policy 393

15 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply 423

16 Inflation and Monetary Policy 456

17 Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Policy 485Glossary G-1

Index I-1

Chapter 1: What is economics? 1

Scarcity and Individual Choice 2

The Concept of Opportunity Cost, 2

Scarcity and Social Choice 6

The Four Resources, 6 Opportunity Cost and Society’s

Trade-offs, 7

The World of Economics 8

Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, 8 Positive and

Normative Economics, 9

Why Study Economics? 10

The Methods of Economics 11

The Art of Building Economic Models, 12 Assumptions and

Conclusions, 13 Math, Jargon, and Other Concerns, 13

How to Study Economics 14

Summary 14

Problem Set 14

Appendix: Graphs and Other Useful Tools 16

Chapter 2: Scarcity, Choice, and economic Systems 24

Society’s Production Choices 24

The Production Possibilities Frontier, 25 Increasing Opportunity Cost, 26

The Search for a Free Lunch 28

Productive Inefficiency, 28 Recessions, 30 Economic Growth, 31

Economic Systems 35

Specialization and Exchange, 35 Comparative Advantage, 36 International Comparative Advantage, 39 Resource Allocation, 41

Understanding the Market 43

The Importance of Prices, 43 Markets, Ownership, and the Invisible Hand, 44 The U.S Market System in Perspective, 45

Using the Theory: Are We Saving Lives Efficiently? 47 Summary 50

Problem Set 51

Part i: Preliminaries

Part ii: markets and Prices

Chapter 3: Supply and Demand 52

Markets 52

Characterizing a Market, 53

Demand 56

The Law of Demand, 56 The Demand Schedule and

the Demand Curve, 57 Shifts versus Movements Along

the Demand Curve, 58 Factors That Shift the Demand

Curve, 60 Demand: A Summary, 63

Supply 63

The Law of Supply, 64 The Supply Schedule and the

Supply Curve, 64 Shifts versus Movements Along the

Supply Curve, 66 Factors That Shift the Supply

Curve, 67 Supply—A Summary, 70

Putting Supply and Demand Together 71

Finding the Equilibrium Price and Quantity, 71

What Happens When Things Change? 74

Example: Income Rises, Causing an Increase in Demand, 74

Example: Bad Weather , Supply Decreases, 75 Example:

Higher Income and Bad Weather Together, 76

The Three-Step Process 78

Using the Theory: The Price of Oil 79 Summary 84

Problem Set 85 Appendix: Solving for Equilibrium Algebraically 88

Chapter 4: Working with Supply and Demand 89

Government Intervention in Markets 89

Fighting the Market: Price Ceilings, 89 Fighting the Market: Price Floors, 92 Manipulating the Market:

Taxes, 94 Manipulating the Market: Subsidies, 98

Supply and Demand in Housing Markets 100

What’s Different about Housing Markets, 101 The Supply Curve for Housing, 102 The Demand Curve for Housing, 103 Housing Market Equilibrium, 105 What Happens When Things Change, 106

Using the Theory: The Housing Boom and Bust: 1997–2011 110 Summary 116

Problem Set 116 Appendix: Understanding Leverage 119

Chapter 5: What macroeconomics

Production and Gross Domestic Product 134

GDP: A Definition, 135 Tracking and Reporting GDP, 137 The Expenditure Approach to GDP, 139 Other Approaches to GDP, 146 Measuring GDP: A Summary, 149 How GDP Is Used, 149 Problems with GDP, 150 Using GDP Properly, 152

Employment and Unemployment 153

Types of Unemployment, 153 The Costs of Unemployment, 157 How Unemployment Is Measured, 160 Problems in Measuring Unemployment, 161 Alternative Measures of Employment Conditions, 162

Using the Theory: Sudden Disasters and GDP 165 Summary 169

Problem Set 169

Chapter 7: The Price level and inflation 172

Measuring the Price Level and Inflation 172

Index Numbers in General, 172 The Consumer Price Index, 173 From Price Index to Inflation Rate, 175

How the CPI Is Used 177

Real Variables and Adjustment for Inflation, 177 Real GDP and the GDP Price Index, 179

The Costs of Inflation 180

The Inflation Myth, 180 The Redistributive Cost of Inflation, 181 The Resource Cost of Inflation, 184

Is the CPI Accurate? 185

Sources of Bias in the CPI, 186 The Overall Bias, 188 Consequences of CPI Bias, 188 The Larger, Conceptual Problem, 189

Using the Theory: The Controversy Over Indexing Social Security Benefits 191

Summary 194 Problem Set 194 Appendix: Calculating the Consumer Price Index 196

Part iii: macroeconomics: basic Concepts

Chapter 8: The Classical long-run model 198

Macroeconomic Models: Classical versus Keynesian 199

Why the Classical Model Is Important, 200 Assumptions

of the Classical Model, 201

How Much Output Will We Produce? 202

The Labor Market, 202 From Employment to Output, 205

The Role of Spending 207

Total Spending in a Very Simple Economy, 207 Total Spending in a More Realistic Economy, 209

The Loanable Funds Market 213

The Supply of Loanable Funds, 213 The Demand for Loanable Funds, 214 Equilibrium in the Loanable Funds Market, 216 The Loanable Funds Market and

Say’s Law, 217

Fiscal Policy in the Classical Model 219

An Increase in Government Purchases, 219 A Decrease

in Net Taxes, 222

The Classical Model: A Summary 223

Summary 224

Problem Set 225 Appendix: The Classical Model in an Open Economy 227

Chapter 9: economic Growth and rising living Standards 230

The Meaning and Importance of Economic Growth 230

Measuring Living Standards, 231 Small Differences and the Rule of 70, 232 Growth Prospects, 233

What Makes Economies Grow? 235

The Determinants of Real GDP, 235 The Growth Equation, 237

Growth in the Employment-Population Ratio (EPR) 238

Changes in Labor Supply and Labor Demand, 238 Government and the EPR, 240 The Limits to the EPR

as a Growth Strategy, 241

Productivity Growth: Increases in the Capital Stock 242

Investment and the Capital Stock, 243 How to Increase Investment, 244 Human Capital and Economic Growth,

248 The Limits to Growth from More Capital, 248

Part iV: long-run macroeconomics

Chapter 10: economic Fluctuations 268

Can the Classical Model Explain

Economic Fluctuations? 271

Shifts in Labor Supply, 271 Shifts in Labor Demand, 272

Verdict: The Classical Model Cannot Explain Economic

Fluctuations, 274

What Triggers Economic Fluctuations? 274

A Very Simple Economy, 275 The Real-World

Economy, 276 Why Say’s Law Doesn’t Prevent Recessions,

277 Examples of Recessions and Expansions, 281

Where Do We Go from Here? 282

Determinants of Consumption Spending, 286

Consumption and Disposable Income, 287 Consumption

and Income, 290

Total Spending 294

Other Components of Total Spending, 294 Summing

Up: Aggregate Expenditure, 295 Income and Aggregate

Expenditure, 296

Equilibrium GDP 297

Finding the Equilibrium, 297 Inventories and

Equilibrium GDP, 298 Finding Equilibrium GDP with

a Graph, 299 Equilibrium GDP and Employment, 303

What Happens When Things Change? 306

A Change in Investment Spending, 306 The Expenditure

Multiplier, 307 The Multiplier in Reverse, 309

Other Spending Changes, 310 A Graphical View of the Multiplier, 311

The Multiplier Process and Economic Stability 312

Automatic Stabilizers and the Multiplier, 312 Automatic Destabilizers and the Multiplier, 315 Real-World Multipliers, 316

Using the Theory: 2008 to 2011: The Recession and the Long Slump 317

Summary 323 Problem Set 323 Appendix: Finding Equilibrium GDP Algebraically 326

Chapter 12: Fiscal Policy 327

The Short Run: Countercyclical Fiscal Policy 327

The Mechanics of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy, 328 Problems with Countercyclical Fiscal Policy, 332

The Long Run: Deficits and the National Debt 334

Numbers in Perspective, 334 Outlays, Revenue, and the Deficit, 335 Deficits over Time, 336 The Deficit and the National Debt, 338

The National Debt: Myths and Realities 339

A Mythical Concern about the National Debt, 340 The Burden of the National Debt, 341 Genuine Concern #1: A Rising Debt Burden, 343 Genuine Concern #2: A Debt Disaster, 345 The U.S Long-Term Debt Problem, 347

Using the Theory: The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act 349

Summary 353 Problem Set 354

Part V: The Short-run model and Fiscal Policy

Chapter 13: money, banks, and

the Federal reserve 356

Money 356

The Money Supply, 357 Functions of Money, 358

A Brief History of the Dollar, 359

The Banking System 360

Financial Intermediaries in General, 361 Commercial

Banks, 361 A Bank’s Balance Sheet, 362

The Federal Reserve System 364

The Structure of the Fed, 365 The Functions of the Fed, 367

The Fed and the Money Supply 368

How an Open Market Purchase Can Increase the Money Supply, 368 How an Open Market Sale Can Decrease the Money Supply, 372 Some Important Provisos about the Money Multiplier, 373 Other Fed Actions That Change the Money Supply, 374

Part Vi: expanding the model: money, Prices, and the Global economy

Productivity Growth: Technological Change 249

Capital Growth versus Technological Change, 250

Discovery-Based Growth, 251 Catch-Up Growth, 253

Growth Policies: A Summary 255

The Costs of Economic Growth 257

Budgetary Costs, 257 Consumption Costs, 258

Sacrifice of Other Social Goals, 259

Using the Theory: Barriers to Catch-Up Growth

in the Poorest Countries 260 Summary 265

Problem Set 266

Banking Panics 375

Bank Insolvency and Bank Failure, 376 How a Banking Panic Develops, 377 The End of Banking Panics, 379 The Role of Regulation, 380

The Banking System versus the Shadow Banking System 381

Another Look at the Banking System, 381 Non-Banks and the Shadow Banking System, 382

Using the Theory: The Financial Crisis of 2008 383

Summary 388

Problem Set 389

Appendix: Capital and Leverage at Financial Institutions 391

Chapter 14: The money market

and monetary Policy 393

The Demand for Money 393

A Household’s Demand for Money, 393 The Wide Demand for Money, 395 Demand for Money with

Economy-a Single Interest REconomy-ate, 396

The Supply of Money 398

Equilibrium in the Money Market 399

How the Money Market Reaches Equilibrium, 399 Are There Two Theories of the Interest Rate?, 402

What Happens When Things Change? 402

How the Fed Can Change the Interest Rate, 402 How

Do Interest Rate Changes Affect the Economy?, 404

Monetary Policy 404

How Monetary Policy Works, 405 Targeting the Interest Rate, 406 Monetary Policy with Many Interest Rates, 409

Unconventional Monetary Policy 410

Changing Interest Rate Spreads, 411 The Zero Lower Bound, 412 Financial Crises, 414

Using the Theory: The Recession, the Financial Crisis, and

the Fed 415

Summary 421

Problem Set 421

Chapter 15: aggregate Demand

and aggregate Supply 423

The Aggregate Demand Curve 424

The Price Level and the Money Market, 424 Deriving the Aggregate Demand Curve, 426 Understanding the

AD Curve, 427 Movements along the AD Curve, 428 Shifts of the AD Curve, 428

The Aggregate Supply Curve 431

Costs and Prices, 432 How GDP Affects Unit Costs, 433 Short Run versus Long Run, 433 Deriving the Aggregate Supply Curve, 435 Movements along the

AS Curve, 436 Shifts of the AS Curve, 436

AD and AS Together: Short-Run Equilibrium 439

What Happens When Things Change? 440

Demand Shocks in the Short Run, 440 Demand Shocks: Adjusting to the Long Run, 444 The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve, 447 Supply Shocks, 449

Using the Theory: The Story of Two Recessions 451 Summary 454

Problem Set 454

Chapter 16: inflation and monetary Policy 456

The Objectives of Monetary Policy 456

Low, Stable Inflation, 457 Full Employment, 457 The Fed’s Performance, 460

Federal Reserve Policy: Theory and Practice 460

Responding to Demand Shocks, 460 Responding to Supply Shocks, 465

Expectations and Ongoing Inflation 468

How Ongoing Inflation Arises, 468 Built-In Inflation, 469 Ongoing Inflation and the Phillips Curve, 471 The Long-Run Phillips Curve, 473 Why the Fed Allows Ongoing Inflation, 475

Challenges for Monetary Policy 476

Information Problems, 476 Rules versus Discretion, 477 Avoiding Deflation, 479

Using the Theory: Should the Fed Prevent (or Pop) Asset Bubbles? 480

Summary 483 Problem Set 484

Chapter 17: exchange rates and macroeconomic Policy 485

Foreign Exchange Markets and Exchange Rates 485

Dollars per Pound or Pounds per Dollar?, 486 The Demand for British Pounds, 487 The Supply of British Pounds, 490 The Equilibrium Exchange Rate, 492

What Happens When Things Change? 493

How Exchange Rates Change over Time, 494

Government Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets 499

Managed Float, 499 Fixed Exchange Rates, 500 Foreign Currency Crises, 502

Exchange Rates and the Macroeconomy 503

Exchange Rates and Demand Shocks, 504 Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy, 504

Exchange Rates and the Euro Zone 505

Advantages of the Euro, 506 Disadvantages of the Euro, 506 The Euro Zone Crisis of 2011, 507

Exchange Rates and Trade Deficits 508

The Origins of the U.S Trade Deficit, 508 How a Financial Inflow Causes a Trade Deficit, 510 Explaining the Net Financial Inflow, 512 Concerns about the Trade Deficit, 513

Using the Theory: The U.S Trade Deficit with China 515 Summary 517

Problem Set 518

Glossary G-1 index i-1

Macroeconomics: Principles and Applications is about

economic principles and how economists use them to

understand the world It was conceived, written, and for

the sixth edition, substantially revised to help your

stu-dents focus on those basic principles and applications

We originally decided to write this book because we

thought that existing texts tended to fall into one of three

categories In the first category are the encyclopedias—

the heavy tomes with a section or a paragraph on every

topic or subtopic you might possibly want to present to

your students These books are often useful as reference

tools But because they cover so many topics—many of

them superficially—the central themes and ideas can be

lost in the shuffle

The second type of text we call the “scrapbook.” In

an effort to elevate student interest, these books insert

multicolored boxes, news clippings, interviews,

car-toons, and whatever else they can find to jolt the reader

on each page While these special features are often

entertaining, there is a trade-off: These books sacrifice

a logical, focused presentation of the material Once

again, the central themes and ideas are often lost

Finally, a third type of text, perhaps in response to

the first two, tries to do less in every area—a lot less

But instead of just omitting extraneous or inessential

de-tails, these texts often throw out key ideas, models, and

concepts Students who use these books may think that

economics is overly simplified and unrealistic After the

course, they may be less prepared to go on in the field, or

to think about the economy on their own

A D istinctive A pproAch

Our approach is very different We believe that the best

way to teach principles is to present economics as a

co-herent, unified subject This does not happen

automati-cally On the contrary, principles students often miss the

unity of what we call “the economic way of thinking.”

The principles course then appears to be just “one thing

after another,” rather than the coherent presentation we

aim for For example, without proper guidance, students

may view the analysis of goods markets, labor markets,

and financial markets as entirely different phenomena,

rather than as a repeated application of the same

meth-odology with a new twist here and there

c Areful f ocus

Because we have avoided the encyclopedic approach,

we have had to think hard about what topics are most important As you will see:

We Avoid Nonessential MaterialWhen we believed a topic was not essential to a basic un-derstanding of economics, we left it out However, we have

striven to include core material to support an instructor who

wants to present special topics in class So, for example, we

do not have separate chapters on environmental ics, agricultural economics, urban economics, health care economics, or comparative systems But instructors should find in the text a good foundation for building any of these areas—and many others—into their courses And we have

econom-included examples from each of these areas as applications

of core theory where appropriate throughout the text

We Avoid Distracting featuresThis text does not have interviews, news clippings, or boxed inserts with only distant connections to the core

material The features your students will find in our book

are there to help them understand and apply economic theory itself, and to help them avoid common mistakes

in applying the theory (the Dangerous Curves feature)

We Explain Difficult concepts Patiently

By freeing ourselves from the obligation to introduce every possible topic in economics, we can explain the

topics we do cover more thoroughly and patiently

We lead students, step-by-step, through each aspect of theory, through each graph, and through each numeri-cal example In developing this book, we asked other experienced teachers to tell us which aspects of economic theory were hardest for their students to learn, and we have paid special attention to these trouble spots

We Use concrete ExamplesStudents learn best when they see how economics can explain the world around them Whenever possible, we develop the theory using real-world examples You will find numerous references to real-world corporations and government policies throughout the text We often use real-world data on our conceptual graphs When we

P r E fAc E

path is incorrect This was the genesis of our “Dangerous Curves” feature—boxes that anticipate the most common traps and warn students just when they are most likely to fall victim to them We’ve been delighted to hear from in-structors how effective this feature has been in overcoming the most common points of confusion for their students.

Using the TheoryThis text is full of applications that are woven through-out the narrative In addition, almost every chapter ends with an extended application (“Using the Theory”) that pulls together several of the tools learned in that chap-ter These are not news clippings or world events that relate only tangentially to the material Rather, they are step-by-step presentations that are rich with real-world detail The goal is to show students how the tools of economics can explain things about the world—things that would be difficult to explain without those tools

Scarcity, choice, and Economic Systems (chapter 2)This early chapter, while covering standard material such

as opportunity cost, also introduces some central cepts much earlier than other texts Most importantly,

con-it introduces the concept of comparative advantage, and the basic principle of specialization and exchange We

have placed them at the front of our book, because we believe they provide the foundation for understanding how economies are organized and what they accomplish

Working with Supply and Demand (chapter 4)Our Chapter 4—in addition to analyzing price ceilings and floors—introduces two concepts not often found

in principles texts, but which have become ingly relevant The first is how supply and demand

increas-can be used for stock variables, and not just flow

variables In the chapter, we treat housing as a stock variable, and then apply the model to the recent hous-ing boom and bust We also believe that teaching the stock-flow distinction early—with the rather intuitive case of housing—makes it easier to think about stock variables later, when students learn about the money

employ hypothetical examples because they illustrate

the theory more clearly, we try to make them realistic

In addition, almost every chapter ends with a thorough,

extended application (the “Using the Theory” section)

focusing on an interesting real-world issue

f eAtures t hAt r einforce

To help students see economics as a coherent whole, and

to reinforce its usefulness, we have included some

im-portant features in this book

The Three-Step Process

Most economists, when approaching a problem, begin

by thinking about buyers and sellers, and the markets

in which they come together to trade They move on

to characterize a market equilibrium, and then explore

how the equilibrium changes when conditions change

To understand what economics is about, students need

to understand this process and see it in different

con-texts To help them do so, we have identified and stressed

a “three-step process” that economists use in analyzing

problems The three key steps are:

1 Characterize the Market Decide which market or

markets best suit the problem being analyzed, and identify the decision makers (buyers and sellers) who interact there

2 Find the Equilibrium Describe the conditions

neces-sary for equilibrium in the market, and a method for determining that equilibrium

3 Determine What Happens When Things Change.

Explore how events or government policies change the market equilibrium

The steps themselves are introduced toward the end

of Chapter 3 Thereafter, the content of most chapters is

organized around this three-step process We believe this

helps students learn how to think like economists, and in

a very natural way And they come to see economics as a

unified whole, rather than as a series of disconnected ideas

Dangerous Curves

Anyone who teaches economics for a while learns that,

semester after semester, students tend to make the same

familiar errors In class, in office hours, and on exams,

students seem pulled, as if by gravity, toward certain

logi-cal pitfalls We’ve discovered in our own classrooms that

merely explaining the theory properly isn’t enough; the

most common errors need to be confronted, and the

stu-dent needs to be shown specifically why a particular logical

market, the behavior of asset prices during the recent

financial crisis, and the impact of falling asset prices

on banks’ balance sheets

The second concept introduced in this chapter is

leverage Although it has been at the heart of recent

eco-nomic turmoil, it has not been part of the traditional

principles pedagogy We’ve introduced leverage in a

sim-ple, intuitive way in the body of Chapter 4 We then delve

a bit deeper in the short appendix to that chapter, which

explains the concept of owners’ equity (in a home), and

presents a simple leverage ratio that students can work

with Teaching this concept early creates a fresh

connec-tion to current policy debates, and lays the foundaconnec-tion

for later applications in the text Students will see how

leverage contributed to the recent housing boom

and bust (in Chapter 4); the recession of 2008–2009

(Chapter 11); the problems of bank and non-bank

insol-vency (Chapter 13); and the Fed’s response (Chapter 14)

Long-run Macroeconomics (chapters 8 and 9)

Our text presents long-run growth before short-run

fluctu-ations Chapter 8 develops the long-run, classical model at

a level appropriate for introductory students, mostly using

supply and demand Chapter 9 then uses the classical model

to explain the causes—and costs—of economic growth in

both rich and poor countries We believe it is better to treat

the long run before the short run, for two reasons First, the

long-run model makes full use of the tools of supply and

demand, and thus allows a natural transition from the

pre-liminary chapters (1 through 4) into macroeconomics

Sec-ond, we believe that students can best understand economic

fluctuations by understanding how and why the long-run

model breaks down over shorter time periods This, of

course, requires an introduction to the long-run model first

Economic fluctuations (chapter 10)

This unique chapter provides a bridge from the long-run

to the short-run macro model, rather than just moving

from one to the other with mere assertions about when

they are used This chapter explains why the long-run

model doesn’t work in the short run and paves the way

for the short-run focus on spending as a driving force

behind economic fluctuations

fiscal Policy (chapter 12)

Our fiscal policy chapter confronts the debate over fiscal

stimulus head on, treating both short-run and long-run

controversies as seen by mainstream economists

Discus-sions of fiscal policy can easily become a thicket of

con-fusion We’ve tried to organize the material coherently to

ensure that students can understand the issues at stake,

and we use real-world data to enrich the theory

Money, banks, and the federal reserve (chapter 13) This chapter on the financial system is unusual in two res-pects First, we put more emphasis on balance sheets and bank solvency than most other texts This enables students

to understand the financial crisis, and provides an important bridge from the principles class to the ongoing debate about financial system reform Second, we introduce the “shadow banking system,” and carefully explain its role in the crisis

Monetary Policy (chapter 14 & 16) We’ve divided our presentation of monetary policy into two chapters This first one (Chapter 14) begins by presenting the traditional money market analysis, but quickly shifts

to a more modern approach that de-emphasizes money

and focuses on interest rates We pay particular attention

to unconventional policy at the zero lower bound We also

discuss the central problem of interest rate spreads without

(we hope) adding undue complexity In a second chapter (Chapter 16: Inflation and Monetary Policy), we go deeper, with discussions about hawks versus doves, monetary pol-icy with ongoing inflation, and asset bubbles

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply (chapter 15)

One of our pet peeves about some introductory texts is the too-early introduction of aggregate demand and aggregate

supply curves, before teaching where these curves come from Students then confuse the AD and AS curves with

their microeconomic counterparts, requiring corrective

act-ion later In this text, the AD and AS curves do not appear

until Chapter 15, where they are fully explained Our ment of aggregate supply is based on a very simple mark-up model that our students have found easy to understand

treat-Exchange rates and Macroeconomic Policy (chapter 17)

Many students find international macroeconomics the most interesting topic in the course, especially the material on exchange rates and what causes them to change Accordingly, you will find unusually full coverage

of exchange rate determination in this chapter This ment is kept simple and straightforward, relying exclu-sively on supply and demand And it forms the foundation for the discussion of the trade deficit that ends the chapter

treat-o rgAnizAtionAl f lexibility

We have arranged the contents of each chapter, and the table of contents as a whole, according to our recommended order of presentation But we have also built in flexibility

Instructors wishing to move rapidly to macro models—

and willing to spend less time on macroeconomic

students—were incorporated into every chapter We paid particular attention to sections that were bogging students down, either deleting them or clarifying them Many sec-tions were rewritten from scratch to introduce a more careful, step-by-step approach We removed some of the more complex Dangerous Curves boxes, trimmed down many others, and added about a dozen new ones And, of course, we brought our examples and Using the Theory sections up to date, to engage with recent economic events.

Changes That May Be of Interest Aside from the general updating and streamlining men-tioned above, we want to call attention to a few changes

that might affect lectures for some instructors

Chapter 2 has a new section on markets, ownership, and the invisible hand, as well as a discussion of mixed economies Chapter 3’s Using the Theory section on oil markets is now a much simpler supply-and-demand analysis

Chapter 6 (Production and Employment) includes new material on alternative labor market measures and some simplifications of GDP measurement We’ve also dealt with the endless confusion over the term “recession” by introduc-

ing a new bolded term, slump, for periods of below-normal

output In our textbook, a recession is a contraction

Chapter 10 (Economic Fluctuations) reorganizes some of the material on why the classical model cannot explain recessions, and adds a discussion of downward wage rigidity Chapter 11 (The Short-Run Macro Model) has a brief discussion of Keynesian equilibrium with services, de-veloped further in an end-of-chapter problem Those who prefer to dispense with inventories entirely might want to reframe Keynesian equilibrium using this approach

In Chapter 12 (Fiscal Policy), apart from the ous revisions based on recent fiscal developments, we’ve changed a few topics In the short-run section, we’ve added material on the balanced-budget multiplier, and we’ve relegated Ricardian equivalence to an end-of-chapter problem In the long-run section, we’ve stream-lined our discussion of long-run fiscal burdens, and

obvi-we’ve made extensive use of some new terms (debt ratio,

burden of the debt, and basic debt guideline).

Chapter 13 (Money, Banks, and the Federal Reserve) has one major pedagogical change: When explaining changes in the money supply, we’ve abandoned our experiment with the “one-bank town,” and returned

to the story where reserves flow from bank to bank (although in a clearer way than in previous editions)

We’ve also moved our general discussion of the shadow banking system into the body of the chapter, focusing the Using the Theory on the financial crisis itself

measurement issues—can cut large chunks of rial out of Chapter 6 (Production and Employment) and Chapter 7 (The Price Level and Inflation) with no

mate-loss of continuity The only essential requirements for

later chapters are the identity of output and income in Chapter 6, and translating nominal to real variables in Chapter 7

Instructors who would like to move rapidly to the

short-run model can skip (or postpone) Chapter 9 (Economic Growth) without any loss of continuity

And for those who want to sprint to the short run,

Chapters 8, 9, and 10 could all be moved toward the end of the course (In the latter case, students will come across occasional references to Chapters 8 and 10 in the chapters that follow, but they will still have all the analytical tools necessary to keep moving forward.)Finally, we have included only those chapters that

we thought were both essential and teachable in a

year-long course But not everyone will agree about what is

essential While we—as authors—cringe at the thought

of a chapter being omitted in the interest of time, we

have allowed for that possibility Nothing in Chapter 9

(Economic Growth), Chapter 10 (Economic

Fluctua-tions), Chapter 16 (Inflation and Monetary Policy), or

Chapter 17 (Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Policy)

is essential to any of the other chapters in the book

Skip-ping any of these should not cause continuity problems

n ew to the s ixth e Dition

Our previous (fifth) edition was our most significant

revi-sion yet This will not surprise anyone who was teaching

an economics principles course during or after

Septem-ber 2008, when the financial crisis hit its peak One of

us (Lieberman) was teaching macro principles at the time

and had the daily task of integrating the flood of

unprece-dented events into the course When the semester was over,

the two of us thought long and hard about what worked,

what didn’t, and how the principles course—both micro

and macro—should respond to the changes we had seen

In planning this new edition, we were gratified that the major pedagogical changes we had made in the fifth

edition still seemed, in retrospect, to be the right ones

So you will not find any radical changes in approach this

time For faculty preparing lectures, this will be welcome

news: Very few adjustments will be needed to present

core concepts and models For students, however, we

think this revision will make a huge difference

Our main goal in this edition was to provide

stu-dents with a smoother ride through the text Valuable

suggestions from dozens of users—both instructors and

In Chapter 14 (Monetary Policy), we’ve been careful to

introduce the distinction between nominal and real interest

rates, which better prepares students for unconventional

policy at the zero lower bound And we’ve replaced the

appendix on feedback effects with a briefer discussion in the

chapter, followed up with optional end-of-chapter problems

In Chapter 15 (Aggregate Demand and Aggregate

Supply), we’ve been more careful to explain the

constant-money-supply assumption behind the AD curve, and to put

that assumption in context Interest rate targeting (already

discussed in Chapter 14) is brought back into the AS-AD

model in Chapter 16 (Inflation and Monetary Policy)

Chapter 17 (Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic

Policy) includes new material on the euro and the recent

crisis in the euro zone

Finally, for those who incorporate the end-of-chapter

problems into their courses, we should point out that

these, too, have undergone changes: Some deleted, and

dozens substantially revised or entirely new

For the Instructor

The Instructor’s Manual is revised by Dell Champlin,

Oregon State University The manual provides chapter

outlines, teaching ideas, experiential exercises for many

chapters, and solutions to all end-of-chapter problems

The Instructor Companion Site on the Product

Sup-port Web Site This site at http://login.cengage.com

features the essential resources for instructors,

password-protected, in downloadable format: the

Instructor’s Manual in Word, the test banks in Word,

and PowerPoint lecture and exhibit slides

The Macroeconomics Test Bank is revised by Kenneth

Slaysman of York College of Pennsylvania It

con-tains more than 2,500 multiple-choice questions The

test questions have been arranged according to

chap-ter headings and subheadings, making it easy to find

the material you need to construct examinations

ExamView Computerized Testing Software

Exam-View is an easy-to-use test creation package

compat-ible with both Microsoft Windows and Macintosh

client software, and it contains all of the questions in

all of the printed test banks You can select questions

by previewing them on the screen, by number, or

ran-domly Questions, instructions, and answers can be

edited, and new questions can easily be added

PowerPoint Lecture and Exhibit Slides Available on

the Web site and the IRCD, the PowerPoint

presen-tations are revised by Andreea Chiritescu, Eastern

Illinois University These consist of speaking points

in chapter outline format, accompanied by

numer-ous key graphs and tables from the main text, many

with animations to show movement of demand and supply curves

CengageCompose With CengageCompose, you can

create your own print text to meet specific course learning objectives Gather what you need from our vast library of market-leading course books and enrichment content, or add original material Build your book the way you want it organized, personal-ized to your students Publish your title with easy-to-use tools that guarantee you will get what you designed For more information, contact your sales rep or go to http://www.cengage.com/custom/

WebTutor Toolbox WebTutor Toolbox provides

instructors with links to content from the book companion Web site It also provides rich commu-nication tools to instructors and students, including

a course calendar, chat, and e-mail For more mation about the WebTutor products, please contact your local Cengage sales representative

infor-CengageNOW Ensure that your students have the

understanding they need of procedures and concepts they need to know with CengageNOW This inte-grated, online course management and learning sys-tem combines the best of current technology to save time in planning and managing your course and assignments You can reinforce comprehension with customized student learning paths and efficiently test and automatically grade assignments with reports that correspond to AACSB standards For your convenience, CengageNOW is also compatible with WebCT® and Blackboard® For more informa-tion, visit http://cengage.com/cengagenow.

For the Student

Hall/Lieberman CourseMate Multiple resources for

learning and reinforcing principles concepts are now available in one place!

CourseMate is your one-stop shop for the learning tools and activities to help students succeed Available for a minimal additional cost, CourseMate provides

a wealth of resources that help study and apply nomic concepts As students read and study the chap-

eco-ters, they can access video tutorials with Ask the

Instructor Videos They can review with Flash Cards

and the Graphing Workshop, as well as check their understanding of the chapter with interactive quizzing.

CourseMate gives you BBC News videos, News articles, Economic Debates, Links to Eco-nomic Data, and more, organized by chapter to help

Econ-your students get the most from Macroeconomics:

Principles and Applications, sixth edition, and

from your lectures

Students can access CourseMate through gageBrain at www.cengagebrain.com.

Cen-Global Economic Watch A global economic crisis

need not be a teaching crisis

Students can now learn economic concepts through

ex-amples and applications using the most current

infor-mation on the global economic situation The Global

Economic Resource Center includes:

A 32-page eBook that gives a general overview of the

events that led up to the current situation, written by Mike Brandl of the University of Texas, Austin

A Blog and Community Site updated daily by an

eco-nomic journalist and designed to allow you and your colleagues to share thoughts, ideas, and resources Thousands of articles from leading journals, news

services, magazines, and newspapers revised four times a day and searchable by topic and key term Student and instructor resources such as Power-

Point® decks, podcasts, and videos Assessment materials allowing you to ensure student

accountability

This resource can be bundled at no charge with this textbook

Visit www.cengage.com/thewatch for more information

Tomlinson Economics Videos “Like Office Hours

24/7” Award winning teacher, actor, and

profes-sional communicator, Steven Tomlinson (PhD, nomics, Stanford) walks students through all of the topics covered in principles of economics in an online video format Segments are organized to follow the organization of the Hall/Lieberman text and most videos include class notes that students can down-load and quizzes to test their understanding Find out more at www.cengage.com/economics/tomlinson.

eco-Aplia Founded in 2000 by economist and Stanford

professor Paul Romer, Aplia is dedicated to improving learning by increasing student effort and engagement

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dem-A cknowleDgments

Our greatest debt is to the many reviewers who carefully

read the book and provided numerous suggestions for

improvements While we could not incorporate all their

ideas, we did carefully evaluate each one of them We are especially grateful to the participants in our survey who helped us with the revision for this sixth edition To all

of these people, we are most grateful:

Sindy Abadie Southwest Tennessee

Community College Eric Abrams Hawaii Pacific University Ljubisa Adamovich Florida State UniversityMehdi Afiat College of Southern NevadaBrian A’Hearn Franklin and Marshall CollegeAli Akarca University of Illinois, ChicagoRashid Al-Hmoud Texas Tech University

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UniversitySylvain Boko Wake Forest UniversityBarry Bomboy J Sargeant Reynolds

Community CollegeJohn L Brassel Southwest Tennessee

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Monica CollegeMark Buenafe Arizona State UniversitySteven Call Metropolitan State CollegeDell Champlin Oregon State UniversityKevin Carey American UniversityCheryl Carleton Villanova UniversitySiddharth Chandra University of PittsburghSteven Cobb Xavier UniversityChristina Coles Johnson & Wales UniversityMaria Salome Indian River State College

E DavisDennis Debrecht Carroll CollegeArthur M University of Nebraska,

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FullertonFerdinand DiFurio Tennessee Tech University

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FresnoWilliam Field DePauw University

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Mark Funk University of Arkansas at

Little RockJames R Gale Michigan Technological

UniversitySarmila Ghosh University of Scranton

Satyajit Ghosh University of Scranton

Michelle Gietz Southwest Tennessee

Community CollegeScott Gilbert Southern Illinois University,

CarbondaleSusan Glanz St John’s University

Michael J Gootzeit University of Memphis

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University

Arunee C Grow Mesa Community College

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CollegePaul Hettler California University of

PennsylvaniaRoger Hewett Drake University

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Eau ClaireKate Krause University of New MexicoBrent Kreider Iowa State UniversityEric R Kruger Thomas CollegeViju Kulkarni San Diego State UniversityMatthew Lang Xavier University

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San DiegoThomas McCaleb Florida State UniversityMark McCleod Virginia Tech UniversityMichael McGuire University of the Incarnate WordSteve McQueen Barstow Community CollegeWilliam R Melick Kenyon College

Arsen Melkumian West Virginia UniversitySamuel Mikhail Indian River State CollegeFrank Mixon University of Southern

MississippiShahruz Mohtadi Suffolk UniversityGary Mongiovi St John’s UniversityJoseph R Morris Broward Community

College-South CampusPaul G Munyon Grinnell College

Rebecca Neumann University of Wisconsin,

MilwaukeeChris Niggle University of RedlandsEmmanuel Nnadozie Truman State UniversityNick Noble Miami University, OhioFarrokh Nourzad Marquette UniversityLee Ohanian University of California,

Los AngelesAndrew Paizis New York UniversityJim Palmieri Simpson CollegeZaohong Pan Western Connecticut

State University

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Mustafa Sawani Truman State University

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Gerald Scott Florida Atlantic University

Peter M Shaw Tidewater Community College

Alden Shiers California Polytechnic State

UniversityWilliam Shughart University of Mississippi

Kevin Siqueira Clarkson University

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Kevin Sontheimer University of Pittsburgh

Mark Steckbeck Campbell University

Richard Steinberg Indiana University, Purdue

University, Indianapolis

K Strong Baldwin-Wallace College

Martha Stuffler Irvine Valley College

Mohammad Syed Miles College

Manjuri Talukdar Northern Illinois University

Kiril Tochkov Binghamton University

John Vahaly University of Louisville

Mikayel Vardanyan Oregon State University

Thomas Watkins Eastern Kentucky University

Hsinrong Wei Baruch College, CUNY

Robert Whaples Wake Forest University

Glen Whitman California State University,

NorthridgeMichael F Williams University of St Thomas

Melissa Wiseman Houston Baptist University

Dirk Yandell University of San Diego

Petr Zemcik Southern Illinois University,

CarbondaleXiaodan Zhao College of Saint Benedict and

Saint John’s University

We appreciate their input

We also wish to acknowledge the talented and cated group of instructors who helped put together a

dedi-supplementary package that is second to none Dell

Champlin, Oregon State University, revised the

Instruc-tor’s Manual, and the test banks were carefully revised

by Kenneth Slaysman of York College of Pennsylvania

The beautiful book you are holding would not exist except for the hard work of a talented team of profes-sionals Book production was overseen by Tim Bailey, senior content project manager at Cengage Learning South-Western and undertaken by Lindsay Schmon-sees, project manager at MPS Content Services Tim and Lindsay showed remarkable patience, as well as an unflagging concern for quality throughout the process

We couldn’t have asked for better production partners

Three former NYU students helped to locate and fix the few remaining errors: Madeline Merin, Joshua Savitt, and Matthew Weiner The overall look of the book and cover was planned by Michelle Kunkler and executed by Jennifer Lambert Deanna Ettinger managed the photo program, and Kevin Kluck made all the pieces come to-gether in his role as manufacturing planner We are es-pecially grateful for the hard work of the dedicated and professional South-Western editorial, marketing, and sales teams Mike Worls, executive editor, has once again shepherded this text through publication with remark-able skill and devotion John Carey, senior marketing manager, has done a first-rate job getting the message out to instructors and sales reps Susan Smart, who has been senior development editor on several editions, once again delved into every chapter and contributed

to their improvement She showed her typical patience, flexibility, and skill in managing both content and authors Sharon Morgan, media editor, has put together

a wonderful package of media tools, and the Cengage Learning South-Western sales representatives have been extremely persuasive advocates for the book We sincerely appreciate all their efforts!

A RequestAlthough we have worked hard on the six editions of this book, we know there is always room for further improvement For that, our fellow users are indispens-able We invite your comments and suggestions whole-heartedly We especially welcome your suggestions for additional “Using the Theory” sections and Dangerous Curves You may send your comments to either of us in care of South-Western

Robert E HallMarc Lieberman

Robert E Hall is the Robert

and Carole McNeil Joint

Pro-fessor of Economics at

Stan-ford University and Senior

Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover In

-stitution. His research focuses

on the overall performance

of the U.S economy,

includ-ing unemployment, capital

formation, financial activity,

and inflation He has served

as president, vice president, and Ely Lecturer of the

American Economic Association and is a Distinguished

Fellow of the association Hall is an elected member of

the National Academy of Sciences and Fellow of the

American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Society of

Labor Economists, and the Econometric Society He is

director of the Research Program on Economic

Fluctua-tions and Growth of the National Bureau of Economic

Research He was a member of the Nati onal Presidential

Advisory Committee on Productivity For further

infor-mation about his academic activities, visit his Stanford

Web site by googling “Robert E Hall.”

Marc LiebermanMarc Lieberman is Clini-cal Professor of Econom-ics at New York University

He received his PhD from Princeton University Lieber-man has taught graduate and undergraduate courses in microeconomics, macroeco-nomics, econometrics, labor economics, and international economics He has taught Principles of Economics at Harvard, Vassar, the Uni-versity of California at Santa Cruz, the University of Hawaii, and New York University. He has won NYU’s Golden Dozen teaching award three times, and also the Economics Society Award for Excellence in Teaching He

was coeditor and contributor to The Road to

Capital-ism: Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union Lieberman has consulted for

Bank of America and for the Educational Testing vice In his spare time, he is a professional screenwriter, and teaches screenwriting at NYU’s School of Continu-ing and Professional Studies

© iStockphoto.com/Jošt Gant

Economics The word conjures up all sorts of images: manic stock traders

on Wall Street, an economic summit meeting in a European capital, an earnest television news anchor announcing good or bad news about the economy You probably hear about economics several times each day What

exactly is economics?

First, economics is a social science It seeks to explain something about society,

just like other social sciences, such as psychology, sociology, and political science

But economists generally ask different questions about society than other social

sci-entists do, such as:

Why are some countries poor and others rich? How can we help the worst-off

countries escape extreme poverty?

When a nation is struck by a natural disaster—such as a hurricane or earthquake—

how are people’s jobs, incomes, and living standards affected?

Why do Americans who graduate from college earn so much more than those

who don’t?

What determines how much we pay for the things we buy every month? What

happens when governments try to change these prices?

Why do the prices of financial assets like stocks, bonds, and foreign currency

fluctuate so widely? Can these price movements be predicted?

What causes economies to occasionally go haywire, suffering months or years of

falling production and sustained joblessness? How should governments respond?

In this book, you’ll learn how economics can help us answer these and many other questions You’ll also see that the answers share a common starting point: an

exploration of how individuals and societies make decisions when they are faced

with scarcity

In fact, a good definition of economics, which stresses its differences from other social sciences, is:

Economics is the study of choice under conditions of scarcity.

This definition may appear strange to you Where are the familiar words we narily associate with economics: “money,” “stocks and bonds,” “prices,” “budgets,”

ordi-and so on? As you will soon see, economics deals with all of these things ordi-and more

But first, let’s take a closer look at two important ideas in this definition: scarcity

S carcity and i ndividual c hoice

Think for a moment about your own life Is there anything you don’t have that you’d

like to have? Anything you’d like more of? If your answer is “no,” congratulations!

You are well advanced on the path of Zen self-denial The rest of us, however, feel the pinch of limits to our material standard of living This simple truth is at the very

core of economics It can be restated this way: We all face the problem of scarcity.

At first glance, it may seem that you suffer from an infinite variety of scarcities

There are so many things you might like to have right now—a larger room or ment, a new car, more clothes the list is endless But a little reflection suggests that your limited ability to satisfy these desires is based on two more basic limitations:

apart-scarce time and apart-scarce spending power.

As individuals, we face a scarcity of time and spending power Given more of either, we could each have more of the goods and services that

we desire.

The scarcity of spending power is no doubt familiar to you We’ve all wished for higher incomes so that we could afford to buy more of the things we want But the scarcity of time is equally important So many of the activities we enjoy—seeing movies, taking vacations, making phone calls—require time as well as money Just

as we have limited spending power, we also have a limited number of hours in each day to satisfy our desires

Because of the scarcities of time and spending power, each of us is forced to

make choices We must allocate our scarce time to different activities: work, play, education, sleep, shopping, and more We must allocate our scarce spending power

among different goods and services: housing, food, furniture, travel, and many ers And each time we choose to buy something or do something, we also choose

oth-not to buy or do something else

In fact, what we choose not to buy or do—“the road not taken” as the poet Robert Frost put it—leads to an interesting way of thinking about cost.

The Concept of Opportunity CostWhat does it cost you to go to the movies? If you answered 9 or 10 dollars because that is the price of a movie ticket, then you are leaving out a lot Most of us are used

to thinking of “cost” as the money we must pay for something Certainly, the money

we pay for goods or services is a part of its cost But economics takes a broader view

of costs The true cost of any choice we make—buying a car, reading a book, or even

taking a nap—is everything we must give up when we make that choice This cost is called the opportunity cost of the choice because we give up the opportunity to enjoy

other desirable things or experiences

The opportunity cost of any choice is what we must forego when we make

cou-Scarcity A situation in which the

amount of something available is

insufficient to satisfy the desire for it.

Opportunity cost What is given

up when taking an action or making

a choice.

We know there are many other things you could be doing: going to a movie,

hav-ing dinner with friends, playhav-ing phav-ing-pong, earnhav-ing some extra money, watchhav-ing

TV But—assuming you’re still reading and haven’t run out the door because

we’ve given you better ideas—let’s relate this to opportunity cost

What is the opportunity cost of reading this chapter? Is it all of those other

possi-bilities we’ve listed? Not really, because in the time it takes to read this chapter, you’d

probably be able to do only one of those other activities You’d no doubt choose

whichever one you regarded as best So, by reading, you sacrifice only the best choice

among the alternatives that you could be doing instead

When the alternatives to a choice are mutually exclusive, only the next best choice—the one that would actually be chosen—is used to determine the opportunity cost of the choice.

For many choices, the opportunity cost consists mostly of the money you ally pay out If you spend $100 on a new pair of shoes, the most important thing

actu-you give up is $100, which is money actu-you could spend on something else But for

other choices, money payments may be only a small part, or no part, of what is

sacrificed Doing a spring cleaning of your home, for example, will take you a lot of

time, but very little money

Economists often attach a monetary value to the time that we give up for a choice This allows us to express a choice’s opportunity cost in dollars—the number

of dollars actually paid out plus the dollar value of the time given up To see how

this works, let’s see how we might calculate the opportunity cost (in dollars) of an

important choice you’ve already made: to attend college

An Example: The Opportunity Cost of College

What is the opportunity cost of attending college for an academic year (9 months)?

A good starting point is to look at the actual monetary costs—the annual

out-of-pocket expenses borne by you or your family Table 1 shows the College Board’s

esti-mates of these expenses for the average student (ignoring scholarships) For example,

the third column of the table shows that the average in-state resident at a four-year

state college pays $7,605 in tuition and fees, $1,137 for books and supplies, $8,535

for room and board, and $3,062 for transportation and other expenses, for a total

of $20,339 per year

Tuition and fees $2,713 $7,605 $27,293 Books and supplies $1,133 $1,137 $1,181 Room and board $7,259 $8,535 $9,700 Transportation and other

expenses

$3,532 $3,062 $2,302

Total out-of-pocket costs $14,637 $20,339 $40,476

Source: Trends in College Pricing, 2010, The College Board, New York, NY.

Notes: Averages are enrollment-weighted by institution to reflect the average experience among students across the United States Average tuition and fees at public institutions are for in-state residents only Room and board charges are for students living on campus at four-year institutions and off-campus (but not with parents) at two-year institu- tions Four-year private includes nonprofit only.

Average Out-of-Pocket

Cost of a Year

of College, 2010–2011

TAblE 1

So, is that the average opportunity cost of a year of college at a public tion? Not really Even if that is the amount you or your family actually pays out for college, this is not the dollar measure of the opportunity cost.

institu-First, the $20,339 your family pays in this example most likely includes some

expenses that are not part of the opportunity cost of college These are payments you’d make whether or not you were in college Let’s suppose that if you didn’t go

to college, you would have lived in an apartment, and your expenses for rent and food would be equal to their college amounts: $8,535 Let’s also suppose that you’d have transportation and other expenses equal to their college amounts: $3,062 Then these payments must be deducted from the opportunity cost of choosing college

Table 2 shows that when we deduct these payments, we’re left with the additional

dollars you pay out of pocket because you chose to attend college: $8,742 These

dollars—spent on tuition and fees and books and supplies—are the only part of your money payments that are part of the opportunity cost Money payments that are

part of opportunity cost are called explicit costs So your explicit costs of attending

college are $8,742

But college also has implicit costs—sacrifices for which no money changes hands

The biggest sacrifice in this category is time But what is that time worth? That pends on what you would be doing if you weren’t in school For many students, the

de-alternative would be working full-time at a job If you are one of these students,

at-tending college requires the sacrifice of the income you could have earned at a job—a sacrifice we call foregone income.

How much income is foregone when you go to college for a year? In erage yearly income of an 18- to 24-year-old high school graduate who worked full-time was about $24,000 If we assume that only nine months of work must

2010, the av-be sacrificed to attend college (that is, you’d still work full-time in the summer), then foregone income is about 3/4 of $24,000, or $18,000 This is the implicit cost of a year of college

Summing the explicit and implicit costs gives us a rough estimate of the tunity cost of a year in college, as shown in Table 2 For a public institution, we have

oppor-$8,742 in explicit costs and $18,000 in implicit costs, giving us an opportunity cost

of $26,742 per year Notice that this is even greater than the total charges estimated

by the College Board we calculated earlier When you consider this opportunity cost for four years, its magnitude might surprise you Without financial aid in the form

of tuition grants or other fee reductions, the average in-state resident will sacrifice about $107,000 over four years at a state college At a private college, we’d find (using calculations similar to those in Table 2) a total opportunity cost of about

$186,000

Explicit cost The dollars

sacrificed—and actually paid

out—for a choice

Implicit cost The value of

something sacrificed when no

direct payment is made.

minus out-of-pocket expenses − $8,535 (room and board) you’d have without college − $3,062 (transportation and other)

plus implicit cost + $18,000 (9 months foregone income)

Sample Opportunity Cost

Calculation for In-State

Our analysis of the opportunity cost of college is an example of a general, and important, principle:

The opportunity cost of a choice includes both explicit costs and implicit costs.

A Brief Digression: Is College the Right Choice?

Before you start questioning your choice to be in college, there are a few things to

remember First, for many students, scholarships reduce the costs of college to less

than those in our example Second, in addition to its high cost, college has

substan-tial benefits, including financial ones.

Figure 1 shows two examples of these financial benefits for the year 2009 The right side of the figure shows that full-time workers with bachelor’s degrees earned

substantially higher incomes ($1,025 per week) than those with only a high-school

diploma ($626 per week) Moreover, as seen in the left side, college graduates were

more likely to find full-time jobs; the unemployment rate of those

with bachelor’s degrees (5.2%) was substantially lower than for

high-school graduates (9.7%) These advantages in earnings and

employment prospects are seen year after year, in good times and

bad In spite of its high cost, attending college appears to be one

of the best financial investments you can make.1

Finally, remember that we’ve left out of our discussion many non-financial benefits of attending college These may be harder

to estimate in dollar terms, but they could be very important to

you Do you enjoy taking classes and learning new things more

than you’d enjoy working at the job you would have gotten

1 If you are studying microeconomics, you’ll learn more about the value of

college as an investment and how economists value future earnings in a later

chapter.

FIgUrE 1 Education, Earnings and Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

instead? Do you have a more interesting social life in college than you’d otherwise have? In the future, will you get more satisfaction—above and beyond the extra earnings—from the jobs that will become available to you because of your college degree?

If you answered yes to any of these questions, then the full benefits of college are greater than the purely financial gains

Time Is MoneyOur analysis of the opportunity cost of college points out a general principle, one understood by economists and non-economists alike It can be summed up in the expression, “Time is money.”

For some people, this maxim applies directly:

When they spend time on something, they actually give up money—money they could have earned during that time Consider Jessica, a

freelance writer with a backlog of projects on which she can earn $25 per hour For

each hour Jessica spends not working, she sacrifices $25.

What if Jessica decides to see a movie? What is the opportunity cost in lar terms? Suppose the ticket costs $10, and the entire activity takes three hours—

dol-including time spent getting there and back And suppose that working is Jessica’s next best alternative to seeing the movie The opportunity cost is the sum of the explicit cost ($10 for the ticket) and the implicit cost ($75 for three hours of forgone income), making the total opportunity cost $85

The idea that a movie “costs” $85 might seem absurd to you But if you think about it, $85 is a much better estimate than $10 of what the movie actually costs Jessica To see the movie, Jessica does indeed sacrifice $85

Our examples about the cost of college and the cost of a movie point out an important lesson about opportunity cost:

The explicit (direct money) cost of a choice may only be a part—and times a small part—of the opportunity cost of a choice.

some-S carcity and S ocial c hoice

Now let’s think about scarcity and choice from society’s point of view What are the

goals of our society? We want a high standard of living for our citizens, clean air, safe streets, good schools, and more What is holding us back from accomplishing all

of these goals in a way that would satisfy everyone? You already know the answer:

scarcity In society’s case, the problem is a scarcity of resources—the things we use

to make goods and services that help us achieve our goals

The Four ResourcesResources are the most basic elements used to make goods and services We can clas-sify resources into four categories:

Labor—the time human beings spend producing goods and services.

Capital—any long-lasting tool that is itself produced and helps us make other

goods and services

resources The labor, capital, land

(including natural resources), and

entrepreneurship that are used to

produce goods and services.

labor The time human beings

spend producing goods and services.

Capital A long-lasting tool that is

used to produce other goods.

dAngErOUS CUrvES

If you think the opportunity cost of your time is

zero . .  What if you can’t work extra hours for additional pay,

so you cannot actually turn time into money? Does this mean

that the opportunity cost of your time is zero?

If you think the answer is yes, the authors of this textbook

would like to hire you for help with some household chores

for 25 cents per hour Does this sound like a good deal to you?

It would, if the opportunity cost of your time really had no

value If it doesn’t sound like a good deal, then the time you’d

be giving up must have some positive value to you If pressed,

you could state that value in money terms—and it would no

doubt exceed 25 cents per hour.

More specifically, physical capital consists of things like machinery and

equipment, factory buildings, computers, and even hand-tools like hammers and

screwdrivers These are all long-lasting physical tools that we produce to help us

make other goods and services

Another type of capital is human capital—the skills and knowledge

pos-sessed by workers These satisfy our definition of capital: They are produced (through education and training), they help us produce other things, and they

last for many years, typically through an individual’s working life

Note the word long-lasting in the definition If something is used up quickly

in the production process—like the flour a baker uses to make bread—it is

gen-erally not considered capital A good rule of thumb is that capital should last at

least a year, although most types of capital last considerably longer

The capital stock is the total amount of capital at a nation’s disposal at any

point in time It consists of all the capital—physical and human—created in vious periods that is still productively useful

Land—the physical space on which production takes place, as well as the useful

materials—natural resources—found under it or on it, such as crude oil, iron,

coal, or fertile soil

Entrepreneurship—the ability (and the willingness to use it) to combine the other

resources into a productive enterprise An entrepreneur may be an innovator who comes up with an original idea for a business or a risk taker who provides

her own funds or time to nurture a project with uncertain rewards

Anything produced in the economy comes, ultimately, from some combination

of these four resources

Think about the last lecture you attended at your college Some resources were

used directly: Your instructor’s labor and human capital (his or her knowledge of

economics); physical capital (the classroom building, a blackboard or projector);

and land (the property on which your classroom building sits) Somebody played the

role of entrepreneur, bringing these resources together to create your college in the

first place (If you attend a public institution, the entrepreneurial role was played by

your state government.)

Many other inputs—besides those special inputs we call resources—were also used

to produce the lecture But these other inputs were themselves produced from resources,

as illustrated in Figure 2 For example, the electricity used to power the lights in your

classroom is an input, not a resource But electricity is itself produced from resources,

including crude oil, coal, or natural gas (land and natural resources); coal miners or oil

riggers (labor); and electricity-generating turbines and power cables (capital)

Opportunity Cost and Society’s

Trade-offs

For an individual, opportunity cost arises from the

scarcity of time and money But for society as a

whole, opportunity cost arises from the scarcity of

resources Our desire for goods is limitless, but we

have limited resources to produce them Therefore,

virtually all production carries an opportunity cost: To produce more of one thing, society must shift resources away from producing something else.

Physical capital The part of the capital stock consisting of physical goods, such as machinery, equipment, and factories.

human capital The skills and training of the labor force.

Capital stock The total amount

of capital in a nation that is productively useful at a particular point in time.

land The physical space on which production takes place, as well as the natural resources that come with it.

Entrepreneurship The ability and

willingness to combine the other

resources—labor, capital, and land—

into a productive enterprise.

dAngErOUS CUrvES

resources versus inputs The term resources is often

con-fused with another more general term—inputs An input is

anything used to make a good or service Inputs include not

only resources but also many other things made from them (cement, rolled steel, electricity), which are, in turn, used to

make goods and services Resources, by contrast, are the special

inputs that fall into one of four categories: labor, land, capital, and entrepreneurship They are the ultimate source of every- thing that is produced.

Input Anything (including a resource) used to produce a good

For example, we’d all like better health for our citizens What would be needed to achieve this goal? Perhaps more frequent medical checkups for more people and greater access to top-flight medicine when necessary These, in turn, would require more and better-trained doctors (labor and human capital), and more hospital buildings, laboratories, and high-tech medical equipment (physical capital) In order to produce more health care, we would have to pull resources—

land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship—out of producing other things that we also enjoy We’d have more health care, but fewer movies, personal computers, cars, or other goods and services that would otherwise have been produced The opportunity cost of improved health care, then, consists of those other goods and services we would have to do without

t he W orld of e conomicS

The field of economics is surprisingly broad It ranges from the mundane (why does a pound of steak cost more than a pound of chicken?) to the personal (how do couples decide how many children to have?) to the profound (could we ever have another Great Depression in the United States, with tens of millions plunged into sudden poverty?)

With a field this broad, it is useful to have some way of classifying the different types of problems economists study and the different methods they use to analyze them

Microeconomics and MacroeconomicsThe field of economics is divided into two major parts: microeconomics and

macroeconomics Microeconomics comes from the Greek word mikros, meaning

“small.” It takes a close-up view of the economy, as if looking through a

micro-scope Microeconomics is concerned with the behavior of individual actors on

the economic scene—households, business firms, and governments It looks at the choices they make and how they interact with each other when they come together

to trade specific goods and services What will happen to the cost of movie tickets

over the next five years? How many management-trainee jobs will open up for lege graduates? These are microeconomic questions because they analyze individual

col-parts of an economy rather than the whole.

Microeconomics The study of the

behavior of individual households,

firms, and governments; the choices

they make; and their interaction in

• Raw Materials (such as cement, steel, plastic)

FIgUrE 2 resources and Production

All goods and services come ultimately from the four resources Resources are used directly by firms that produce goods and

services Resources are also used indirectly, to make the other inputs firms use to produce goods and services.

Macroeconomics—from the Greek makros, or “large”—takes an overall view of

the economy Instead of focusing on the production of carrots or computers,

mac-roeconomics lumps all goods and services together and looks at the economy’s total

output Instead of focusing on employment of management trainees or

manufactur-ing workers, it considers total employment in the economy Macroeconomics focuses

on the big picture and ignores the fine details

Positive and Normative Economics

The micro versus macro distinction is based on the level of detail we want to

con-sider Another useful distinction has to do with our purpose in analyzing a problem

Positive economics explains how the economy works, plain and simple If someone

says, “The decline in home prices during 2008 and 2009 was a major cause of the

recent recession,” he or she is making a positive economic statement A statement

need not be accurate or even sensible to be classified as positive For example,

“Gov-ernment policy has no effect on our standard of living” is a statement that virtually

every economist would regard as false But it is still a positive economic statement

Whether true or not, it’s about how the economy works and its accuracy can be

tested by looking at the facts—and just the facts

Normative economics prescribes solutions to economic problems It goes beyond just

“the facts” and tells us what we should do about them Normative economics requires

us to make judgments about different outcomes and therefore depends on our values

If an economist says, “We should cut total government spending,” he or she is gaging in normative economic analysis Cutting government spending would benefit

en-some citizens and harm others, so the statement rests on a value judgment A

norma-tive statement—like “We should cut government spending”—cannot be proved or

disproved by the facts alone

Positive and normative economics are intimately related in practice For one thing,

we cannot properly argue about what we should or should not do unless we know

certain facts about the world Every normative analysis is therefore based on an

un-derlying positive analysis And a new understanding

of positive economics often changes one’s views on

normative economics

Why Economists Disagree about Policy

Suppose the country is suffering from a serious

recession—a significant, nationwide decrease in

production and employment Two economists are

interviewed on a cable news show

Economist A says, “We should increase government spending on roads, bridges, and other

infrastructure This would directly create jobs and

help end the recession.” Economist B says, “No, we

should cut taxes instead This will put more money

in the hands of households and businesses, leading

them to spend more and create jobs that way.” Why

do they disagree?

The disagreement might be based on positive

economics—different views about how the economy

works Economist A might think that government

spending will create more jobs, dollar for dollar,

Macroeconomics The study of the behavior of the overall economy.

Positive economics The study of how the economy works.

normative economics The practice of recommending policies

to solve economic problems.

dAngErOUS CUrvES

Seemingly positive statements Be alert to statements

that may seem purely positive, but contain hidden value

judg-ments Here’s an example: “If we want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, our society will have to use less gasoline.”

This may sound positive because it seems to refer only to a

fact about the world But it’s also at least partly normative

Why? Cutting back on gasoline is just one policy among many that could reduce emissions To say that we must choose this

method makes a value judgment about its superiority to other methods A purely positive statement on this topic would be,

“Using less gasoline—with no other change in living habits—

would reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Similarly, be alert to statements that use vague terms that hide value judgments An example: “All else equal, the less gaso- line we use, the better our quality of life.” Whether you agree

or disagree, this is not a purely positive statement People will

disagree over the meaning of the phrase “quality of life” and what would make life better This disagreement could not be resolved just by looking at the facts.

than will tax cuts Economist B might believe the reverse Positive differences like these can arise because our knowledge of how the economy works—while always improving—remains imperfect

But the disagreement might also stem from a difference in values—specifically, what each economist believes about government’s proper role in the economy Those toward the left of the political spectrum tend to believe that government should play a larger economic role They tend to view increases in government spending more favorably

Those toward the political right tend to believe that government’s role should be smaller

They would prefer tax cuts that result in more private, rather than government, ing This difference in values can explain why two economists—even if they have the

spend-same positive views about the outcome of a policy—might disagree about its wisdom

Policy differences among economists arise from (1) positive disagreements (about the outcomes of different policies), and (2) differences in values (how those outcomes are evaluated).

Policy disputes among economists are common But on some policy issues, most

economists agree For example, in microeconomics there is wide agreement that tain types of goods and services should be provided by private business firms and that certain others are best provided by government

cer-In macroeconomics, almost all economists agree that some of the government policies during the Great Depression of the 1930s were mistakes that worsened and prolonged the economic downturn When U.S and global economies sank into a deep recession in 2008 and 2009, many feared a repeat of the Great Depression Economists had some important disagreements about what the initial response of the U.S and other governments should be But they were virtually united in warning against repeat-ing the mistakes of the 1930s

Most governments heeded these warnings Although the economic slump ued through 2010 and into 2011, another Great Depression was avoided You will learn more about these areas of agreement among economists—as well as some impor-tant disagreements—in the chapters to come

contin-W hy S tudy e conomicS ?

If you’ve read this far into the chapter, chances are you’ve already decided to allocate some of your scarce time to studying economics We think you’ve made a wise choice

But it’s worth taking a moment to consider what you might gain from this choice

Why study economics?

To Understand the World BetterApplying the tools of economics can help you understand global and catastrophic events such as wars, famines, epidemics, and depressions But it can also help you understand much of what happens to you locally and personally—the salary you will earn after you graduate or the rent you’ll pay on your apartment Economics has the power to help us understand these phenomena because they result, in large part, from the choices we make under conditions of scarcity

Economics has its limitations, of course But it is hard to find any aspect of

life about which economics does not have something important to say Economics cannot explain why so many Americans like to watch television, but it can explain

how TV networks decide which programs to offer Economics cannot protect you

from a robbery, but it can explain why some people choose to become thieves and

why no society has chosen to eradicate crime completely Economics will not

im-prove your love life, resolve unconscious conflicts from your childhood, or help you

overcome a fear of flying, but it can tell us how many skilled therapists, ministers,

and counselors are available to help us solve these problems

To Achieve Social Change

If you are interested in making the world a better place, economics is indispensable There

is no shortage of serious social problems worthy of our attention— unemployment,

hunger, poverty, disease, climate change, drug addiction, violent crime Economics can

help us understand the origins of these problems, explain why previous efforts to solve

them haven’t succeeded, and help us to design new, more effective solutions

To Help Prepare for Other Careers

Economics has long been a popular college major for individuals intending to work in

business But it has also been popular among those planning careers in politics,

interna-tional relations, law, medicine, engineering, psychology, and other professions This is

for good reason: Practitioners in each of these fields often find themselves confronting

economic issues For example, lawyers increasingly face judicial rulings based on the

principles of economic efficiency And doctors need to understand how new

technolo-gies or changes in health care policy can affect their practices

To Become an Economist

Only a tiny minority of this book’s readers will decide to become economists This

is welcome news to the authors, and after you have studied labor markets in your

microeconomics course you will understand why But if you do decide to become an

economist—obtaining a master’s degree or a PhD—you will find many possibilities

for employment The economists with whom you have most likely had personal

contact are those who teach and conduct research at colleges and universities But

as many economists work outside of colleges and universities as work inside them

Economists are hired by banks to assess the risk of investing abroad; by

manufactur-ing companies to help them determine new methods of producmanufactur-ing, marketmanufactur-ing, and

pricing their products; by government agencies to help design policies to fight crime,

disease, poverty, and pollution; by international organizations to help create and

reform aid programs for less developed countries; by the media to help the public

in-terpret global, national, and local events; and by nonprofit organizations to provide

advice on controlling costs and raising funds more effectively

architects’ cardboard models of buildings These are all physical models, three-

dimensional replicas that you can pick up and hold Economic models, by contrast,

are built with words, diagrams, and mathematical statements

What, exactly, is a model?

A model is an abstract representation of reality.

The two key words in this definition are abstract and representation A model is not supposed to be exactly like reality Rather, it represents reality by abstracting or

Model An abstract representation

of reality.

taking from the real world By including some—but not all—of the details of the real

world, a model helps us understand the world more clearly

The Art of Building Economic ModelsWhen you build a model, how do you know which real-world details to include and which to leave out? There is no simple answer to this question The right amount

of detail depends on your purpose in building the model in the first place There is, however, one guiding principle:

A model should be as simple as possible to accomplish its purpose.

This means that a model should contain only the necessary details.

To understand this a little better, think about a map A map is a model that represents a part of the earth’s surface But it leaves out many details of the real world First, a map leaves out the third dimension—height—of the real world Sec-ond, maps always ignore small details, such as trees and houses and potholes But when you download a map, how much detail do you want it to have?

Suppose you’re in Columbus, Ohio, and you want to drive from Port Columbus International Airport to the downtown convention center You will need a zoomed-in, detailed street map, as on the left side of Figure 3 The zoomed-out highway map on the right doesn’t show any streets, so it wouldn’t do at all

But if you instead wanted to find the best driving route from Columbus to Boston, you would want to zoom out to the highway map The view with individual streets would have too much detail and be harder to use

The same principle applies in building economic models The level of detail that would be just right for one purpose will usually be too much or too little for another When you feel yourself objecting to an economic model because some-thing has been left out, keep in mind the purpose for which the model is built In introductory economics, the purpose is entirely educational—to help you under-stand some simple yet powerful principles about how the economy operates Keep-ing the models simple makes it easier to see these principles at work and remember them later

FIgUrE 3 Maps as Models

These maps are models But each would be used for a different purpose.

Assumptions and Conclusions

Every economic model makes two types of assumptions: simplifying assumptions

and critical assumptions.

A simplifying assumption is just what it sounds like—a way of making a model

simpler without affecting any of its important conclusions A road map, for example,

makes the simplifying assumption, “There are no trees.” Having trees on a map

would only get in the way Similarly, in an economic model, we might assume that

there are only two goods that households can choose from or that there are only

two nations in the world We make such assumptions not because we think they are

true, but because they make a model easier to follow and do not change any of the

important insights we can get from it

A critical assumption, by contrast, is an assumption that affects the

conclu-sions of a model in important ways When you use a road map, you make the

criti-cal assumption, “All of these roads are open.” If that assumption is wrong, your

conclusion—the best route to take—might be wrong as well

In an economic model, there are always one or more critical assumptions You don’t have to look very hard to find them because economists like to make them

explicit right from the outset For example, when we study the behavior of business

firms, our model will assume that firms try to earn the highest possible profit for

their owners By stating this critical assumption up front, we can see immediately

where the model’s conclusions spring from

Math, Jargon, and Other Concerns

Economists often express their ideas using mathematical concepts and a special

vo-cabulary Why? Because these tools enable economists to express themselves more

pre-cisely than with ordinary language For example, when conflict raged across Libya in

early 2011, someone who never studied economics might say, “Oil prices rose because

there was a shortage of oil.” That statement might not bother you right now But in a

few weeks, you’ll be saying it something like this: “Oil prices rose because the supply

curve for oil shifted leftward, while the demand curve continued to shift rightward.”

Does the second statement sound strange to you? It should First, it uses special

terms—demand curve and supply curve—that you’ve yet to learn Second, it uses a

mathematical concept—shifting curves—with which you might not be familiar But

the first statement might mean a number of different things, some of which were

not true at the time The second statement—as you will see in Chapter 3—can mean

only one thing By being precise, we can steer clear of unnecessary confusion.

If you are worried about the special vocabulary of economics, you can relax

After all, you may never have heard the term “opportunity cost” before, but now

you know what it means New terms will be defined and carefully explained as you

encounter them Indeed, this textbook does not assume you have any special

knowl-edge of economics It is truly meant for a “first course” in the field

But what about the math? Here, too, you can relax While professional mists often use sophisticated mathematics to solve problems, only a little math is

econo-needed to understand basic economic principles And virtually all of this math comes

from high-school algebra and geometry

Still, if you have forgotten some of your high-school math, a little brushing up might be in order This is why we have included an appendix at the end of this

chapter It covers some of the most basic concepts—such as interpreting graphs, the

equation for a straight line, and the concept of a slope—that you will need in this

course You may want to glance at this appendix now, just so you’ll know what’s

there Then, from time to time, you can go back to it when you need it

Simplifying assumption Any assumption that makes a model simpler without affecting any of its important conclusions.

Critical assumption Any assumption that affects the conclusions of a model in

an important way.

Economics is the study of choice under conditions of

scar-city As individuals—and as a society—we have unlimited

desires for goods and services Unfortunately, our ability to

satisfy those desires is limited, so we must usually sacrifice

something for any choice we make

The correct measure of the cost of a choice is not just

the money price we pay, but the opportunity cost: what we

must give up when we make a choice

At the individual level, opportunity cost arises from

the scarcity of time or money For society as a whole, it

arises from the scarcity of resources The four types of

re-sources are land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship All of

the inputs we use to produce goods and services are either

resources themselves or are made from resources

There-fore, to produce and enjoy more of one thing, society must

shift resources away from producing something else Every

society must choose which desires to satisfy and how to satisfy them Economics provides the tools that explain those choices

The field of economics is divided into two major areas

Microeconomics studies the behavior of individual

house-holds, firms, and governments as they interact in specific

markets Macroeconomics, by contrast, concerns itself with

the behavior of the entire economy It considers variables such as total output and total employment

Economics makes heavy use of models—abstract

repre-sentations of reality—to help us understand how the omy operates All models are simplifications, but a good model will have just enough detail for the purpose at hand

econ-The simplifying assumptions in a model just make it easier

to use The critical assumptions are the ones that affect the

actively, not passively

If you are reading these words while you are lying back on a comfortable couch,

a phone in one hand and a remote in the other, you are going about it in the wrong way Active studying means reading with a pencil in your hand and a blank sheet of

paper in front of you It means closing the book periodically and reproducing what

you have learned It means listing the steps in each logical argument, retracing the flow of cause and effect in each model, and drawing the graphs It does require some work, but the payoff is a good understanding of economics and a better understand-ing of your own life and the world around you

Answers to even-numbered Problems can be found on the text Web site through www.cengagebrain.com

1 Discuss whether each statement is a purely positive

statement, or whether it also contains normative

ele-ments and/or value judgele-ments:

a An increase in the personal income tax will slow

the growth rate of the economy

b The goal of any country’s economic policy should

be to increase the well-being of its poorest, most vulnerable citizens

c The best way to reduce the national poverty rate is

to increase the federal minimum wage

d The 1990s were a disastrous decade for the U.S

economy Income inequality increased to its highest level since before World War II

2 For each of the following, state whether economists

would consider it a resource, and, if they would,

iden-tify which of the four types of resources the item is

a A computer used by an FBI agent to track the whereabouts of suspected criminals

b The office building in which the FBI agent works

PrOblEM SET

c The time that an FBI agent spends on a case.

d A farmer’s tractor

e The farmer’s knowledge of how to operate the tractor

f Crude oil

g A package of frozen vegetables

h A food scientist’s knowledge of how to cially freeze vegetables

commer-i The ability to bring together resources to start

a frozen-food company

j Plastic bags used by a frozen-food company to hold its product

3 Suppose you are using the second map in Figure 3,

which shows main highways only You’ve reached

a conclusion about the best way to drive from the Columbus city center to an area south of the city

State whether each of the following assumptions of

the map would be a simplifying or critical assumption

for your conclusion, and explain briefly (Don’t worry about whether the assumption is true or not.)

a The thicker numbered lines are major highways without traffic lights

b The earth is two-dimensional

c When two highways cross, you can get from one

to the other without going through city traffic

d Distances on the map are proportional to distances

in the real world

4 Suppose that you are considering what to do on an

upcoming weekend Here are your options, from least

to most preferred: (1) study for upcoming midterms;

(2) fly to Colorado for a quick ski trip; (3) go into

seclusion in your dorm room and try to improve your score on a computer game What is the opportunity cost of a decision to play the computer game all weekend? (Your answer will not be in dollars.)

5 Use the information in Table 1 (as well as the tion about foregone income made in the chapter) to calculate the average opportunity cost of a year in college for a student at a four-year private institution under each of the following special assumptions:

assump-a The student receives free room and board at home

at no opportunity cost to the parents.

b The student receives an academic scholarship covering all tuition and fees (in the form of a grant, not a loan or a work-study aid)

c The student works half-time while at school ( assume for this problem that the leisure or study time sacrificed has no opportunity cost)

6 Use the information in Table 1 (as well as the sumption about foregone income made in the chapter) to compare the opportunity cost of attend-ing a year of college for a student at a two-year public college, under each of the following special assumptions:

as-a The student receives free room and board at home

at no opportunity cost to the parents.

b The student receives an academic scholarship covering all tuition and fees (in the form of a grant, not a loan or a work-study aid)

c The student works half-time while at school ( assume for this problem that the leisure or study time sacrificed has no opportunity cost)

with a fall in the other.

We can be even more specific about the positive lationship between advertising and sales: Logic tells us

re-that the association is very likely causal We’d expect that sales revenue depends on advertising outlays, so we call sales our dependent variable and advertising our in-

dependent variable Changes in an independent variable

cause changes in a dependent variable, but not the other way around

To explore the relationship further, let’s graph it

As a rule, the independent variable is measured on the horizontal axis and the dependent variable on the vertical axis In economics, unfortunately, we do

not always stick to this rule, but for now we will In Figure A.1, monthly advertising expenditure—our independent variable—is measured on the horizon-

tal axis If we start at the origin—the corner where

the two axes intersect—and move rightward along the horizontal axis, monthly advertising spending increases from $0 to $1,000 to $2,000 and so on The vertical axis measures monthly sales—the dependent variable Along this axis, as we move upward from the origin, sales rise

The graph in Figure A.1 shows six labeled points, each representing a different pair of numbers from our

table For example, point A—which represents the

num-bers in the first row of the table—shows us that when

t ableS and G raphS

A brief glance at this text will tell you that graphs are

important in economics Graphs provide a convenient

way to display information and enable us to

immedi-ately see relationships between variables.

Suppose that you’ve just been hired at the

ad-vertising department of Len & Harry’s—an

up-and-coming manufacturer of high-end ice cream products

located in Texas You’ve been asked to compile a

re-port on how advertising affects the company’s sales

It turns out that the company’s spending on

advertis-ing has changed repeatedly in the past, so you have

lots of data on monthly advertising expenditure and

monthly sales revenue, both measured in thousands

of dollars

Table A.1 shows a useful way of arranging this

data The company’s advertising expenditures in

differ-ent months are listed in the left-hand column, while the

right-hand column lists total sales revenue (“sales” for

short) during the same months Notice that the data in

this table is organized so that spending on advertising

increases as we move down the first column Often, just

looking at a table like this can reveal useful patterns

In this example, it’s clear that higher spending on

ad-vertising is associated with higher monthly sales These

two variables—advertising and sales—have a positive

relationship A rise in one is associated with a rise in

the other If higher advertising had been associated with

APPENdix Graphs and Other Useful Tools

Advertising and Sales

at len & harry’s

example, make sure you can see that from point C to point D, advertising rises by one unit and sales rise by

three units

What if we had wanted to determine the slope of this

line, by comparing points D and E which have

advertis-ing risadvertis-ing by four units instead of just one? In that case,

we’d have to calculate the rise in one variable per unit

rise in the other To do this, we divide the change in the vertically measured variable by the change in the hori-zontally measured variable

Slope of a straight line5 Change in vertical variiable

Change in horizontal variable.

We can make this formula even simpler by using two shortcuts First, we can call the variable on the vertical

axis “Y” and the variable on the horizontal axis “X.” In our case, Y is sales, while X is spending on advertising

Second, we use the Greek letter ∆ (“delta”) to denote the words “change in.” Then, our formula becomes:

Slope of a straight line 5 D

D

Y

X.

Let’s apply this formula to get the slope as we

move from point D to point E, so that advertising (X)

rises from 7 units to 11 units This is an increase of 4,

the firm spends $2,000 on advertising, sales are $24,000

per month Point B represents the second row of the

table, and so on Notice that all of these points lie along

a straight line.

Straight-Line Graphs

You’ll encounter straight-line graphs often in economics,

so it’s important to understand one special property they

possess: The “rate of change” of one variable compared

with the other is always the same For example, look at

what happens as we move from point A to point B:

Ad-vertising rises by $1,000 (from $2,000 to $3,000), while

sales rise by $3,000 (from $24,000 to $27,000) If you

study the graph closely, you’ll see that anywhere along

this line, whenever advertising increases by $1,000, sales

increase by $3,000 Or, if we define a “unit” as “one

thousand dollars,” we can say that every time

advertis-ing increases by one unit, sales rise by three units So the

“rate of change” is three units of sales for every one unit

of advertising

The rate of change of the vertically measured able for a one-unit change in the horizontally mea-

vari-sured variable is also called the slope of the line The

slope of the line in Figure A.1 is three, and it remains

three no matter where along the line we measure it For

FIgUrE A.1 A graph of Advertising and Sales

Advertising ($1,000 per month)

Sales ($1,000 per month)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

18 24 27 36

54 39 51

How can we measure the slope of a curve? First, note that since the slope is different at every point along the curve, we aren’t really measuring the slope of “the

curve” but the slope of the curve at a specific point along

it How can we do this? By drawing a tangent line—a

straight line that touches the curve at just one point and that has the same slope as the curve at that point For example, in the figure, a tangent line has been drawn

for point B To measure the slope of this tangent line,

we can compare any two points on it, say, H and B, and

calculate the slope as we would for any straight line

Moving from point H to point B, we are moving from 0

to 3 on the horizontal axis (∆X = 3) and from 21 to 27

on the vertical axis (∆Y = 6) Thus, the slope of the gent line—which is the same as the slope of the curved

tan-line at point B—is

D

D 5 5

Y X

6

This says that, at point B, the rate of change is two units

of sales for every one unit of advertising Or, going back

to dollars, the rate of change is $2,000 in sales for every

$1,000 spent on advertising

The curve in Figure A.2 slopes everywhere ward, reflecting a positive relationship between the variables But a curved line can also slope downward

up-so ∆X = 4 For this move, sales rise from 39 to 51, an

increase of 12, so ∆Y = 12 Applying our formula,

D 5 5

Y X

124This is the same value for the slope that we found

earlier Not surprising, since it’s a straight line and a

straight line has the same slope everywhere The

par-ticular pair of points we choose for our calculation

doesn’t matter

Curved Lines

Although many of the relationships you’ll encounter

in economics have straight-line graphs, many others

do not Figure A.2 shows another possible

relation-ship between advertising and sales that we might have

found from a different set of data As you can see, the

line is curved But as advertising rises, the curve gets

flatter and flatter Here, as before, each time we spend

another $1,000 on advertising, sales rise But now,

the rise in sales seems to get smaller and smaller This

means that the slope of the curve is itself changing as

we move along this curve In fact, the slope is getting

Sales ($1,000 per month)

1 The slope of this

in Y, so the graph of the line is flat, like the line in the

middle left panel

The value of a has no effect on the slope of the  graph Instead, different values of a determine the graph’s position When a is a positive number, the graph will intercept the vertical Y-axis above the

origin, as the line does in the upper right panel of

Figure A.3 When a is negative, however, the graph will intercept the Y-axis below the origin, as the line in the lower right panel does When a is zero, the graph inter- cepts the Y-axis right at the origin, as the line does in

the middle right panel

Let’s see if we can figure out the equation for the

relationship depicted in Figure A.1 There, X denotes advertising and Y denotes sales Earlier, we calculated that the slope of this line, b, is 3 But what is a, the

vertical intercept? In Figure A.1, you can see that when advertising outlays are zero, sales are $18,000

That tells us that a = 18 Putting these two

observa-tions together, we find that the equation for the line in Figure A.1 is

Y = 18 + 3X.

Now if you need to know how much in sales to

ex-pect from a particular expenditure on advertising (both

in thousands of dollars), you would be able to come

up with an answer: You’d simply multiply the amount spent on advertising by 3, add 18, and that would be your sales in thousands of dollars To confirm this, plug

in for X in this equation any amount of advertising in

dollars from the left-hand column of Table A.1 You’ll see that you get the corresponding amount of sales in the right-hand column

h oW S traiGht l ineS

and c urveS S hift

So far, we’ve focused on relationships where some

vari-able Y depends on a single other varivari-able X But in many

of our theories, we recognize that some variable of est to us is actually affected by more than just one other

inter-variable When Y is affected by both X and some third

variable, changes in that third variable will usually cause

a shift in the graph of the relationship between X and

Y This is because whenever we draw the graph between

X and Y, we are holding fixed every other variable that

might possibly affect Y.

to illustrate a negative relationship between variables,

or it can slope first one direction and then the other

You’ll see plenty of examples of each type of curve in

later chapters, and you’ll learn how to interpret each

one as it’s presented

l inear e quationS

Let’s go back to the straight-line relationship between

advertising and sales, as shown in Table A.1 What if

you need to know how much in sales the firm could

expect if it spent $5,000 on advertising next month?

What if it spent $8,000 or $9,000? It would be nice

to be able to answer questions like this without

hav-ing to pull out tables and graphs to do it As it turns

out, anytime the relationship you are studying has a

straight-line graph, it is easy to figure out an equation

for the entire relationship—a linear equation You then

can use the equation to answer any such question that

might be put to you

All straight lines have the same general form If Y stands for the variable on the vertical axis and X for the

variable on the horizontal axis, every straight line has an

equation of the form

Y = a + bX, where a stands for some number and b for another num-

ber The number a is called the vertical intercept because

it marks the point where the graph of this equation hits

(intercepts) the vertical axis; this occurs when X takes

the value zero (If you plug X = 0 into the equation, you

will see that, indeed, Y = a.) The number b is the slope

of the line, telling us how much Y will change every time

X changes by one unit To confirm this, note that when

X = 0, the equation tells us that Y = a When X = 1, it

tells us that Y = a + b So as X increases from 0 to 1,

Y goes from a to a + b The number b is therefore the

change in Y corresponding to a one-unit change in X—

exactly what the slope of the graph should tell us

If b is a positive number, a one-unit increase in X causes Y to increase by b units, so the graph of our line

would slope upward, as illustrated by the line in the

upper left panel of Figure A.3 If b is a negative number,

then a one-unit increase in X will cause Y to decrease by

b units, so the graph would slope downward, as the line

does in the lower left panel Of course, b could equal

zero If it does, a one-unit increase in X causes no change

Think back to the relationship between advertising and sales Earlier, we supposed sales depended only on advertising But suppose we make an important discov-

ery: Ice cream sales are also affected by how hot the

weather is What’s more, all of the data in Table A.1 on which we previously based our analysis turns out to have been from the month of June in different years, when

A graph between two variables X and Y is only

a picture of their relationship when all other

variables affecting Y are held constant.

But suppose one of these other variables does

change? What happens then?

FIgUrE A.3 Straight lines with different Slopes and vertical Intercepts