Economic systems analysis statistical indicators

Table 1.1 System of indicatorsIndicators of resources of social-economic potential Development indicators social-economic potential Indicators of population income level Indicators of la

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Lilia A Mikheykina • Innara R Lyapina

Economic Systems Analysis: Statistical Indicators

123

of EconomicsMoscowRussiaInnara R LyapinaOrel State University namedafter I.S TurgenevOrel

Russia

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A team of authors has prepared the textbook of social–economic statistics foruniversity students studying“Economics” (bachelor’s degree program) in English.Sibirskaya Elena—Doctor of Economics, Professor of Department of Statistics

of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Author of more than 200 scientificand teaching and methodological works Sphere of interests is conducting basic andapplied research, carrying out the expertise and providing advice on statisticalanalysis problems of Russian economy

Oveshnikova Liudmila—Doctor of Economics, Professor of Department ofStatistics of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Author of more than 140scientific and teaching and methodological works Sphere of interests is scientificand applied research of national and regional economy on the basis of statisticalmethodology and instruments

Mikheikina Liliia—Ph.D in Economics, Senior Lecturer of Department ofStatistics of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Author of more than 40scientific and teaching and methodological works Sphere of interests is research ofinnovative activity on the basis of statistical methodology and instruments.Lyapina Innara—Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department ofMarketing of the Orel State University Author of more than 180 scientific andteaching and methodological works Sphere of interests is national and regionaleconomy, business, marketing, innovations, investments, statistics, and researches

A knowledge of social–economic statistics, a system of economic indicators, andmethodology for their calculation provides an opportunity to work in any sector

of the economy Professional foreign language proficiency for economics graduates

is one of the conditions for successful work and career advancement Russianbusiness is more integrated into the global economy and a foreign language pro-ficiency becomes the same basic skill as the ability to use computers Besides, theenterprises andfirms try to refuse the services of an interpreter and employ staffmembers with knowledge of foreign languages and ability to translate the spe-cialized literature and documentation

v

Often, the knowledge of common foreign language is not enough in businessand professional sphere and for effective communication with foreign experts ineconomy and finance sphere In a globalized economy, the foreign language,especially English, becomes an important information product It helps to make anobjective assessment of the situation in the world economy, to strategize about moreeffective economy for the enterprise This explains the development of professionalliterature in foreign language and creation of this textbook for studying the eco-nomic statistics.

Statistical Indicators for Economic Analysis book is written with considerationthat readers are familiar with the theory of statistics, which has formulated thegeneral methods and principles of establishing the quantitative characteristics ofmass phenomena and processes This book describes the concepts, definitions,indicators, and classifications of social–economic statistics with consideration of theinternational standards and the present-day practice of statistics in Russia Most

of the chapters are described briefly, but the authors believe that, nevertheless, thebook has plenty of material for studying

The book has 10 chapters, and here is a brief description of each chapter.Chapter1.“Introduction to Economic Statistics” reviews the subject, method,and goals of social–economic statistics, main groupings, and classifications.Chapter2.“Population Statistics” describes the target, subject, and sources ofdata on population statistics, the indicators, and main groupings of populationdistribution

Chapter3.“Statistics of Living Standards of Population” reviews the conceptsand systems of living standards indicators

Chapter 4 “Statistical Study of Labor Force” describes the concept of laborforce and the goals of labor statistics

Chapter5.“Statistics of Labor and Company Personnel” reviews the concepts ofcompany personnel and its structure, the indicators of employees’ headcountturnover, the indicators of work time records and use, methods of studying thedynamics of labor productivity across a set of companies, and factor models instudying the dynamics of labor productivity

Chapter6.“Macroeconomic Indicators in SNA” describes the system of nationalaccounts, GDP, and other macroeconomic indicators

Chapter 7 “Statistics of Production” reviews the conceptual framework ofproduction, the types of production by grade of its readiness in manufacture, themethods inventory of manufacturing and selling products, and the methods ofstatistical assessment of selling activity and production quality

Chapter8.“Statistics of National Wealth” reviews the concept and structure ofnational wealth, the indicators offixed assets availability and inventory

Chapter9.“Statistics of Production Costs” reviews the concept and structure ofproduction costs, the methods of studying the dynamics of production cost priceand distribution costs

Chapter10.“Statistics of Financial Outcomes of Company Operations” reviewsthe concept of gross profit and the types of profit, the quantitative characteristics ofmonetary relations in terms of emergence, allocation, use, and analysis of com-panies’ financial resources.

The textbook is created for students in economic specialties (the academicbachelor’s degree program) and can be used as an auxiliary literature for the stu-dents in other programs

March, 2018

1 Introduction to Economic Statistics 1

1.1 Subject Matter, Method and Goals of Economic Statistics 1

1.2 System of Indicators of Economic Activity Outcomes and Their Groupings 2

1.3 Main Groupings and Their Classifications Used in Economics and Economic Statistics 4

Bibliography 6

2 Population Statistics 7

2.1 Target and Scope of Population Statistics 8

2.2 Sources of Statistical Data on Population 9

2.3 Population Size Indicators Population Main Groupings and Distribution 10

2.4 Statistical Study of Natural Movement of Population 12

2.5 Statistical Study of Mechanical Movement of Population 17

2.6 Long-Term Calculations of Population Size 19

Bibliography 20

3 Statistics of Living Standards of Population 23

3.1 Concept of Living Standards System of Indicators of Living Standards Statistics 23

3.2 Population Income 27

3.3 Population Consumption and Consumer Spending 29

3.4 Social Differentiation of Population 30

Bibliography 35

4 Statistical Study of Labor Force 39

4.1 Concept of Labor Force and Goals of Labor Statistics 39

4.2 Concept of Economically Active Population Employed and Unemployed 43

ix

4.3 Identification of Long-Term Size of Labor Force 46

Bibliography 47

5 Statistics of Labor and Company Personnel 51

5.1 Concept of Company Personnel and Its Structure 51

5.2 Indicators of Turnover of Number of Employees 55

5.3 Indicators of Work Time Records and Utilization 57

5.4 Indicators of Employees’ Engagement Level by Shifts 62

5.5 Methods of Measuring Level and Dynamics of Labor Productivity 63

5.6 Studying Dynamics of Labor Productivity Over Set of Companies 65

5.7 Use of Factor Index Models in Studying the Dynamics of Labor Productivity 66

5.8 Measuring Increase in Product Output Due to Labor Productivity Change 68

5.9 Concept of Salary Payroll Fund Analysis 69

Bibliography 73

6 Macroeconomic Indicators in SNA 75

6.1 Concept of System of National Accounts, GDP and Methods of Its Calculation 75

6.2 Statistics of Other Macroeconomic Indicators 80

Bibliography 81

7 Statistics of Production 83

7.1 Concept of Production, Types of Production by Grade of Its Manufacture 84

7.2 Methods of Manufacturing Inventory and Selling Products 86

7.3 Assessment of Plan Fulfillment in Production Volume and Sales 90

7.4 Analysis of Uniformity of Production and Smoothness of Production Flow 91

7.5 Statistical Assessment of Sales Activity 92

7.6 Statistical Study of Production Quality 99

Bibliography 102

8 Statistics of National Wealth 103

8.1 Concept and Structure of National Wealth 103

8.2 Indicators of Fixed Assets Availability and Inventory 105

8.3 Resources and Stocks of Tangible Current Assets 113

8.4 Assessment of Efficiency of Using Objects of Labor 114

Bibliography 117

9 Statistics of Production Costs 119

9.1 Concept and Structure of Production Costs 119

9.2 Classification of Production Costs 120

9.3 Study of Dynamics of Production Cost Price 121

9.4 Distribution Costs 122

9.5 Indicators of Level and Dynamics of Product Unit Cost Price 123

Bibliography 125

10 Statistics of Financial Outcomes of Company Operations 127

10.1 Concept of Gross Income and Profit Types of Profit 127

10.2 Concept and Types of Profitability Indicators 129

10.3 Statistical Analysis of Profit from Product Sales Factor Models in Profit Analysis 130

10.4 Index Methods of Profitability Analysis 132

10.5 Factor Models in Analyses of Profitability Indicators 133

10.6 Business Activity Indicators Break Even Point 135

Bibliography 137

Introduction to Economic Statistics

After studying this chapter, you will be able to know:

The main definitions, the subject matter and method of social-economic statistics; the main goals, the theoretical and methodological foundations; the system of indicators, the key groupings and classifications used in economics and economic statistics;

Skills to be acquired:

The ability to characterize the role of statistics in the studies of social and economic phenomena and processes.

Key points:

1 The subject matter, method and goals of economic statistics

2 The main groupings and classifications used in economics and economic

statis-tics.

Statistics

Economic statistics is:

(1) the area of knowledge—science encompassing a complex and multi-branchsystem of scientific disciplines (areas) which have a certain specificity, theystudy the qualitative aspect of mass phenomena and processes in inextricableconnection with their qualitative aspect;

(2) the area of practical activity—collecting, processing, analyzing and publishingmass data about the phenomena and processes of social life;

(3) a set of digital data characterizing the state of mass phenomena and processes

of social life or their totality;

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

E V Sibirskaya et al., Economic Systems Analysis: Statistical Indicators,

Studies in Systems, Decision and Control 158,

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1

2 1 Introduction to Economic Statistics

(4) the area of statistics applying the methods of mathematical statistics for studyingsocial and economic processes and phenomena

The target of economic statistics are mass economic and social phenomena taking

place at the level of the overall economy of the country, the economy of regions orindividual economic entities

The subject of economic statistics are the quantitative and qualitative

characteris-tics of the specific results of an economic activity

The main goals of economic statistics are as follows:

– providing government bodies with information required for them to make decisions

on a broad range of issues related to the formation of economic policy, elaboration

of various state programs and measures on implementing them;

– providing company CEOs, managers, officers who set up production facilitieswith information on the development of economy and social sphere, required fortheir better understanding of the macroeconomic environment where their com-panies operate, in particular, when making decisions on investments, expandingproduction, organizing sales, etc.;

– developing and constant refining of the indicator system of socio-economic cesses;

pro-– developing and substantiation of data sources;

– providing the characteristic of the socio-economic potential and its components:labor force, material and technological component, natural resource componentand others

The theoretical foundation of economic statistics is the economic theory whichreveals the whole system of economic phenomena and processes in their mutualrelations and interdependence via economic categories and laws

The methodological foundation of economic statistics is the general theory ofstatistics which develops the statistical methodology, that is the statistical methods

of collecting, processing, presenting and analyzing statistical data

The statistical methods used for researching mass economic and social ena, are as follows: times series; groupings; calculating averages; balance method;correlation-regression analysis and others

and Their Groupings

The key element of economic statistics is the system of indicators reflecting the

numerical characteristic of various economic phenomena and processes, as well as

of economics on the whole

The term “system of indicators” denotes an ordered set of interrelated and mutuallyagreed indicators characterizing the key aspects of the economic process and the

Table 1.1 System of indicators

Indicators of resources of

social-economic potential

Development indicators social-economic potential

Indicators of population income level

Indicators of labor force Indicators of economic

activity outcomes

Indicators of income differentiation Indicators of national wealth Indicators of costs Indicators of nominal and real

salary Indicators of effectiveness Indicators of income dynamics

and so on Indicators of foreign trade

relations

Indicators of population consumption of material values and services Indicators of finance and

prices Others

economy in general The indicators agreement enables to use them in combinations,

as well as to calculate various coefficients having major analytical importance.The term “statistical indicator” has two meanings First, it is a specific numericalcharacteristic of a certain phenomenon Second, it is general outlining the content of

a certain indicator, that is the elements to be included in the indicator Outlining the

content of an indicator and the methods of its assessment is called developing the

methodology It includes the following stages:

– identifying the phenomena and processes to be studied statistically (identifyingthe type of data requiring development), formulating the goals for the computation

of indicators;

– identifying the content of indicators;

– identifying the methods of assessing individual indicators, that is, which of themshould be used for the assessment of various types of economic assets in thecomputation of the national wealth, the population size and so on;

– identifying the main classifications to be applied for the distribution of the studiedeconomic phenomena on the basis of certain criteria;

– identifying the main sources of the data required for the computation of tors, as well as the procedures of processing the collected data in order to obtaingeneralized indicators.1

indica-Thus, the following groups are specified in the system of indicators (Table1.1)

1 Economic Statistics 2nd edition, revised: Textbook/Edited by Yu N Ivanov.—M.: INFRA- M, 2002—480 pp—(Series “Higher Education”).

4 1 Introduction to Economic Statistics

in Economics and Economic Statistics

Classifications and groupings are an important tool of studying social and economicphenomena and organizing information Classification in economic statistics is asystematized distribution of phenomena and objects to certain sections, groups,classes, positions, types on the basis of their similarities and differences An attribute(a criterion) or several attributes (criteria) serve as the basis for classification

Classifier in statistics is a systematized list of units (industries, businesses,

prod-ucts, activities, fixed assets and so on), with each of them having a code assigned.The code substitutes the unit name and serves as the means of its identification, sincethe code is a mark or a set of marks adopted for identifying classification groupingsand classification objects

System of economic classifications is a condition for ranking, analyzing, storingand efficient searching for information The main classifications which are obligatoryfor use, stand for standards Classifications are usually agreed by statistical serviceswith information consumers and are the subject of harmonization at the internationallevel

In order to identify the affiliation of phenomena and units to certain classes andgroups, to the classifier, detailed guides and indices in the form of reference books, are

compiled for the classifier A classifier is added to and specified in nomenclature—a

standard list of units and their groups (Fig.1.1)

In today’s conditions of Russia’s integration with the international community,the Unified System of Information Classification and Coding which was established

in Russia, is an important means of achieving the authenticity and comparability ofindicators

Classifications enable to establish quantitative characteristics of individual groups,their specific weight Classifications of the branches of economy are necessary forallocating companies or their parts (divisions) Classifications of the economic activ-ity types serve as a basis for analyzing the statistical data on manufacturing, factors

of production and others

There are close relations between sector classifications and classifications of modities The International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activ-ities is the classification of the types of economic activities having a hierarchicalstructure Certain modification for taking into account the national peculiarities ispossible

com-Classifiers, with each of them describing its units of classification, are to ensurethe interrelations of these units in information flows A significant part of All-Russiaclassifiers are currently based on effective international classifiers

Control Questions

1 Name the subject, method and goals of social-economic statistics

2 Describe the indicator system of the economic activity outcomes and theirgroupings

6 1 Introduction to Economic Statistics

3 Describe the main groupings and classifications used in economics

4 Name the sources for obtaining data for assessing and analyzing socio-economicinformation

5 Describe the main statistical recording center in the country

7 Salin, V.N Statistics: Textbook / Salin, V.N., Shpakovskaya, E.P – M.: KnoRus, 2014.

8 Social and economic statistics: Textbook / under edition of Efimova, M.R – M.: Yurait, 2014.

9 Social and economic statistics: Textbook / Melkumov, Ya.S – 2ndedition – M.: NITS Infra–

Population Statistics

After studying this chapter, you will be able to know:

The concept and main goals of demographic statistics and labor market statistics; the methodology of calculating the indicators of natural and mechanical popula- tion movement; the main categories of statistical study of the labor market: labor force; economically active population; employed and unemployed population; the positive and negative aspects of labor migration impact on the economic and social development of the country;

Skills to be acquired:

Analyzing and interpreting the data of Russian and foreign statistics about the size, structure, movement of population and labor force; using modern equipment and information technologies for meeting analytical and research goals.

Key points:

1 Target and subject of population statistics.

2 Sources of statistical data about population.

3 Indicators of population size Main groupings and distribution of population.

4 Statistical study of natural population movement.

5 Statistical study of mechanical population movement.

6 Long-term calculations of population size.

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

E V Sibirskaya et al., Economic Systems Analysis: Statistical Indicators,

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7

8 2 Population Statistics

Demographic processesProcesses of

Processes of changing population distribution acrossterritory

Processes of population migration(relocation of people across the borders of individualterritories, especially with change of residence for a long period of time

or forever)

Fig 2.1 Demographic processes

Population statistics is the oldest area of the science of statistics,1 which studiespopulation and the processes related to population dynamics, from the quantitativeside under specific conditions of social development

The target of population statistics is a set of people residing in a certain area or

on the whole planet

The scope of study for this area of statistics are all the forms of population ment (natural, migratory, social movement) and the laws of population movementdevelopment

move-The goals of population statistics include: developing the methods of statisticalrecords and control of the records quality of demographic events (births, deaths, mar-riages, divorces, migrations), the methods of constructing demographic indicators;the calculations of the size and composition of population in the periods betweencensuses, the long-term calculations of population size and composition; the socialcharacteristic of population; the analysis of demographic processes dynamics andinterrelations; organizing and conducting population censuses, developing censusresults, publishing statistical data on population

The main goal of calculating the indicators of population statistics is assessing thedemographic situation established in the specific territory under specific conditions

of location and time, the demographic situation forecast for the future

The processes demonstrated in Fig.2.1, relate to demographic processes.Population statistics uses 2 groups of statistical methods:

1 Writing by ancient Chinese historian and philosopher Confucius contains one of the first ing about collecting data on population.

mention-– generally recognized methods (of mass observation, data summaries and ings, methods of studying dynamics, graphic studying of phenomena, indexmethod, balance method)2;

group-– specific methods developed only for studying population: methods of real andhypothetical generation

Method of real generation (cohorts) enables to consider the natural movementchanges of people of the same age—longitudinal analysis A real generation is a set

of people who were born at the same period of time The real generation method

is based on calculating the indicators (birth rate, number of marriages, mortalityrate) which characterize the pace of the demographic processes occurring in one realgeneration in different periods of its life Cohort is a set of people simultaneouslyexperiencing a certain event (marriage cohort; migrants and others) Generation is afrequent case of a cohort

The hypothetical generation method considers natural movement of people of thesame age—cross-sectional analysis In this method, indicators for the same period

of time, but relating to different age groups, are summarized for obtaining the graphic activity summary indicator This method is of the best applicability for assess-ing the demographic situation, it has a good predictive capability

demo-In order to obtain a summary characteristic of a studied demographic process ingeneral, a system of probability tables is used in the practice of statistics The mainindicators of such tables are as follows: the person’s age at the moment of the eventoccurrence for an each age group; the event occurrence probability for each agegroup; the number of individuals in each age group for who the event has occurred;the probability of being in the previous state The following types of probabilitytables are used: tables of birth, mortality, number of marriages, divorce rate

The main sources of statistical data on population are as follows:

– population censuses conducted on a regular basis, usually once per ten years,

in some countries—once per five years According to the UN experts’ definition,

“Population census is the summarizing process of collecting, summarizing, ing, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data about allthe population living at a certain moment of time in the country or in its distinctlylimited part”;

assess-– current statistical records of demographic events, conducted on a continuous basis;– current registers (lists, card files) of population, which function on a continuousbasis as well;

– sample and special surveys

2 These methods are described in more detail in the theory of statistics.

10 2 Population Statistics

In population statistics, most frequently, an individual is a unit of observation,but sometimes a family serves as a unit of observation In international practice, it iscommon to operate with households A household, unlike a family, may consist ofone person supporting himself/herself financially

Population in general, individual population groups, young families which wereborn within the year, those who died and others, can be the targets of statisticalobservation

A census program usually includes gender, birth date, age, marital status, a ber of children, as well as occupation, type of work, employment status (owner oremployee), source of income In addition, the census program, as a rule, has questionscharacterizing the population literacy, professional qualification level, the number ofyears of education Besides, censuses relatively often have questions regarding citi-zenship, participation in wars, mental and physical deficiencies, religious faith, thenative language and the language used for communication, and others An obligatoryquestion is on where people are located at the critical moment of the census.These census data are used as the basis for constructing maps of internal andexternal migration If the census program has a question on how far the place of work

num-or studies is located from the person’s home, data on so-called commuting migrationare obtained Sometimes, for developing more detailed data, questions about thenumber of years in marriage, the number of marriages, the reason for divorce areincluded in the census program Studies of living conditions are conducted as well:

on the number of rooms where a family lives, the source of central heating, theavailability of modern conveniences and so on

In the periods between censuses, the main data source is the current registration ofdemographic events (registering vital records, registering births and deaths) On thebasis of registering demographic events, the birth rate is possible to calculate by theage of the mother and the father, their marital status, nationality, occupation, socialgroup, territory of residence and so on; the mortality rate by the age and gender, by thecause of mortality, by the residence place, by the nationality The current registration

of demographic events is applied for calculating demographic indicators

Other sources of data on population are as follows: various lists of populationcompiled by different institutions for performing certain tasks; centralized electronicsystems of automated population cards; sample surveys (micro-censuses of popula-tion); special surveys dedicated to in-depth study of some specific goal Organizingthem is less costly than conducting a census and a sample survey

and Distribution

The indicators of population size, structure and movement, depending on the purposethey are required for, are calculated either by the resident population or by the presentpopulation (these are the population categories considered during census)

Present population is the part of the population which is located in the given

settlement at the point of keeping records, irrespectively of the permanent residenceplace

Resident population is the part of the population which constantly resides in the

given settlement, irrespectively of the actual location at the point of keeping records

Temporarily absent are persons who have been temporarily absent in their

perma-nent residence place (for the period not exceeding 6 months) at the point of keepingrecords

Temporarily present are individuals who have been temporarily located in the

given settlement (for the period not exceeding 6 months) at the point of keepingrecords

There is interrelation between these categories of population, which is called thebalance of population categories:

Present population Resident population + Temporarily present

− Temporarily absent orResident population Present population − Temporarily present

+ Temporarily absent (2.1)Analytical and average indicators of time series are used for analyzing the pop-ulation dynamics and size: pure and relative gains, growth rates, absolute count of1% gain

The population size in any settlement varies greatly within a year, and for thisreason, the average population size is identified in statistics for calculating a number

of indicators

The average population size can be calculated by various methods The mostprecise method is the method of calculating the average population size by the number

of person-years lived by the population:

¯S1 The number of person-years lived by the population for certain

time period to divided by time period t (2.2)The arithmetical mean is calculated on the basis of the population size at thebeginning and at the end of the period:

S S b + S e

If the population size data for several equally spaced dates are known, then theaverage yearly population size can be calculated with higher precision, as the arith-metical mean for time series with equally spaced dates:

The change in the population size due to births and deaths is called natural movement

of population.

Absolute and relative indicators are calculated for studying natural populationmovement

Absolute indicators include the following:

1 Number of persons born within a year in the given region—(persons)—Gain;

2 Number of people who died within a year in the given region (persons)—Loss;

3 Natural population increase (loss) (persons):

Natural increase Increase − Loss (2.6)

4 Number of marriages registered in the given country within a year (Marriages)

or number of persons who entered into marriage (2 * Marriages);

5 Number of divorces (terminated marriages) in the given country within a year

(Divorces) or the number of persons who terminated the marriage (2 * Divorces).

As a rule, all the indicator of demographic statistics are calculated for the overallyear

Relative indicators of demographic statistics include general and special tors

indica-General indicators include birth and mortality rates, marriage and divorce rates;rate of natural increase and birth-death ratio

All the ratios, except the birth-death ratio, are calculated in parts per thousand,that is per every 1000 persons of the population, and the birth-death ratio is identified

in percentage (that is per 100 persons of the population)

1 Crude birth rate:

Birth rateBirths divided by P multiplied by 1000 (‰),

where P is the average yearly size of the present population of the region

2 Crude death rate:

Death rateLoss divided by P multiplied by 1000 (‰)

3 Rate of natural increase:

C ne N E ¯P · 1000 or C ne  C b − C d



Rate of natural increaseNatural increase divided by H multiplied by 1000 (‰)

or Birth rate−Death rate (‰)

4 Birth-rate ratio (Pokrovsky factor):

N1is the number of infants who were born during the current year,

N0is the number of infants who were born during the previous year

2 Age-specific birth rates are the number of infants who were born by women of

a certain age group X per 1,000 of the average annual number of women of thegiven age group (Table2.1):

F X N X

W X

where NX_is the number of infants born alive in women at the age “x”,

W X is the average annual number of women at the age “x”

These rates are calculated by one-year and five-year age groups

3 Special birth rate (fertility indicator) is the ratio of the infants who were bornalive to the average number of women of reproductive age (15–49 years of age):

F N

W15 −49· 1000 (2.15)This indicator does not depend on the gender structure of the population, and inless extent than crude birth rate, it depends on the population age structure

4 Age-specific mortality rate is the number of persons who died at the certain age

X per 1000 persons of population of the given age on average per year:

m XM X

S X

where MXis the number of those who died at the age “x”,

S xis the average annual number of population at the age “x”

These rates are usually calculated by five-year groups of population

5 Summary birth rate is calculated by means of dividing the sum of one-year specific birth rates by 1000 This indicator characterizes the average number of

age-Table 2.1 Scale for assessing

special birth rate GBR Total number of newborns per1000 women of reproductive

age

Characteristic of birth level

Table 2.2 Pattern of survivorship (mortality) table

X to age

X + 1

Probability

of death within the next year

of life

Probability

to survive until the age X + 1

Number

of persons living at the age X years

Number

of years of life ahead

person-Mean lifetime

6 Demographic load factor

Demographic load factor (Population under 15 years of age

+ Population above 15 years of age) divided

by Population of 15−60 years of age (2.18)

7 Population ageing rate3

Population ageing rate (Population above 65 years divided by

Population size) multiplied by 100 (%) (2.19)

8 Indicator of the average expectancy of forthcoming life is the summary indicator

of survivorship tables Survivorship (mortality) table uses one-year age groupsfrom the age of 0 (newborns) to 100 years of age (Table2.2)

The average duration of the coming life is understood as the number of yearsahead for the given generation of born people to live, if we assume that throughoutall the life of this generation, during the transition from one age to the other, themortality will be equal to the today’s mortality level in individual age groups.The number of persons who survived until the age of X years, is set for 10,000people

3 A country is “demographically old” if the ageing rate exceeds 15%.

The number of persons living at the age of X years, reflects the average valuefrom the number of persons who survived until this age and until the age X + 1 Forall ages, except for 0 years old, it can be approximately calculated by the formula:

The average population life expectancy is calculated by means of diving the sum

of probable person-years by the number of the studied persons:

Survival rate, or transfer rate is calculated on the basis of mortality tables It iscalculated by comparing the average number of persons living in two adjacent agegroups:

2.5 Statistical Study of Mechanical Movement

In order to study the whole set of migration processes, statistics applies absoluteand relative indicators of migration, method of analysis of time series, method ofgroupings, balance method, statistical tables and charts Also, correlation-regressionanalysis is applied, which enables to identify the interrelation between the migrationlevel, unemployment and the salary level in different countries

The following classification of migration types is applied (Table2.3)

The absolute indicators of migration include:

1 The number of persons who arrived in the given region, Arrived persons

2 The number of persons who departed from the given region, Departed persons

3 Population growth by migration in the region (balance of migration), persons.

Population growth by migration Arrived persons − Departed persons (2.26)Relative indicators of migration intensity characterize the frequency of the resi-dence change cases in the population generality within a certain period of time The

Table 2.3 Classification of migration types

No Classification attribute Migration type

2 Causes Political, economic (labor), social

3 Legality Legal and illegal (unlawful)

4 Extent of organizing Organized and non-organized (spontaneous) migration

5 Population categories Migration of old residents and migration of new settlers (in fact,

these are migrations of different population categories—resident and present population, respectively)

6 Independence of

decision on migration

Voluntary, forced and quasi-forced (social and economic causes

of urgent departure)

7 Period of relocation With no return, temporary, seasonal, push-pull (regular trips

which are not related to change of residence place)

18 2 Population Statistics

factors to follow are also calculated in parts per thousand, that is per every 1000people of the population

1 Arrival factor:

Arrival factorResident population divided by Population

size multiplied by1000

3 Factor of population growth by migration:

Factor of population growth by migration Population growth by migrationdivided by Population size multiplied by 1000 (2.29)

C M  AF − DF (2.30)

4 Factor of migratory turn intensity (C MOB) characterizes the frequency of the cases

of residence change on average per 1000 persons of the region population for theperiod:

C mti A + D ¯P ·1000



Migratory turn intensity factor (Arrival + Departure) divided by

Population size multiplied by 1000

(2.31)

5 Factor of migration efficiency

Factor of migration efficiency Arrival − Departure divided by Arrival

+ Departure

(2.32)

6 Relative balance of migration

(2.33)Relative balance of migration

 Arrival divided by Departure multiplied by 1000

The value of overall population increase is calculated on the basis of the data on

natural and migratory population increase:

Overall population increase Natural increase + Population growth by migration

Born people− People who died

People who arrived− People who departed

(2.34)

Overall population increase factor K opi is calculated:

Overall population increase factor Natural increase factor

+ Factor of population growth by migrationOverall population increase factor Overall population increase divided

by Population size multiplied by 1000

(2.35)

Demographic forecast is a scientifically substantiated foresight of the future size andstructure of population and its reproduction

The extent of precision of a forecast depends on the calculation period length onthe nature of the source data, as well as on the extent of precision of assessing all thefactors affecting in the long term the birth level, the mortality level, the intensity ofmigration processes and their route

The forecast of the overall population size is of limited value and is not informative.Forecasting the future population growth, in the first place by gender an age, issignificantly more important, especially for economic and social planning

Long-term calculations of population for individual regions of the country areconducted with consideration of the intensity of migration processes and the structure

of migrants by gender and age

Long-term population size is calculated on the basis of data on the natural

popu-lation increase and popupopu-lation growth by migration for a certain period, and well as

on the basis of the assumption whether the identified patterns will continue withinthe forecasted period of time

Long-term population size (P n+1) is identified by the formula:

P n+t  P n×



1 + C opi1000

t

(2.36)

where Pnis the population size at the beginning of the forecasted period;

t is the number of years for which the calculation is forecasted;

C is the overall population increase factor

20 2 Population Statistics

Control Questions

1 Formulate the goals of demographic statistics

2 What are the sources of data about population?

3 Name the classification attributes used in studying the population structure

4 Name the absolute and relative indicators of natural and migratory movement ofpopulation and the methods of their calculation

5 Describe the range of issues covered by labor market statistics

Bibliography

1 Arkhangelsky, V.M., et al Practical demography/Arkhangelsky, V.M et al M.: TSSP, 2005.

2 Borisov, V.A Demography: Textbook for higher education institutions / Borisov, V.A M.: NOTA BENE, 2005.

3 Godin, A.M Statistics [Electronic resource]: Textbook / Godin, A.M., – 10thedition, revised and corrected – Publishing and trade corporation “Dashkov and K°”, 2013.

4 Golodov, S.V Demography and economy Statistical analysis / Golodov, S.V., Kuznetsov, E.I // Problems of adaptation of domestic economic and statistical methodology to international stan- dards: collection of science articles / Financial University affiliated with the Russian Federation government; editor-in-chief Salin V.N., – M.: Nauka– Business– Paritet, 2013 – pp 103–109.

5 Demographic definitional dictionary / Edited by professor Rybakovsky L.L – M.: TSSP,

2003 – 352 pp.

6 Demographic encyclopedic dictionary / Editorial board: Valentei D.I., et al - M.: Soviet encyclopedia, 1985 – 808 pp.

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et al.; edited by Eliseeva, I.I – M.: Finance and statistics, 2006 – 688 pp.

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9 Demography: Schoolbook / joint authors; edited by Glushkova, V.G., Simagin, Yu.A – 5 th

edition, stereotypical – M.: KNORUS, 2010 – 288 pp.

10 Eliseeva, I.I Statistics: Textbook / Eliseeva, I.I., Kurysheva, S.V., Egorova, I.I – M.: Prospect, 2015.

11 Zvereva, N.B Basics of demography: Schoolbook / Zvereva, N.V., Veselkova, I.N., Elizarov, V.V – M.: Vyshaya Shkola, 2004 – 374 pp.

12 Klupt, M Demography of Earth’s regions – St Petersburg: Piter, 2008 – 347 pp.

13 Medkov, V.M Demography: Textbook / V M Medkov M.: INFRA-M, 2008.

14 Medkov, V.M Demography: Textbook – M.: INFRA-M, 2004 – 576 pp.

15 Melkumov, Ya S Social and economic statistics: Schoolbook / Melkumov, Ya.S – M.: INFRA-M, 2013.

16 Methods of economic research: Schoolbook / Orekhov, A.M – 2 nd edition – M.: NITS Infra – M, 2013.

17 Population Encyclopedic dictionary - M.: Big Russian encyclopedia, 1994 - 640 pp.

18 Basics of demography: Schoolbook / Kosov, P.I., Bereneeva, A.B – 2ndedition, supplemented and revised – M.: INFRA-M, 2010 – 288 pp.

19 Salin, V.N Statistics: Schoolbook / Salin, V.N., Shpakovskaya, E.P – M.: KnoRus, 2014.

20 Social and economic statistics: Textbook / edited by Efimova, M.R – M.: Yurite, 2014.

21 Social and economic statistics: Schoolbook / Melkumov, Ya.S – 2 nd edition – M.: NITS Infra– M, 2013.

22 Statistical tools in regional economic research: Schoolbook / Khokhlova, O.A – Russian nomic University named after G.V Plekhanov – M.: Publishing house of Russian Economic University named after G.V Plekhanov, 2014 – 143 pp.

Eco-23 Federal law of November 29, 2007 No 282– FZ “About official statistical records and system

of state statistics in the Russian Federation” (version of July 23, 2013).

24 Economic statistics: Textbook / Edited by professor Ivanov, Yu.N – 4 th edition, revised and supplemented – M.: NITS Infra– M, 2013.

25 www.gks.ru – Official website of the Federal State Statistics Service.

26 www.ec.europa.eu/eurostat –Eurostat.

27 www.unstats.un.org – UN statistical department.

28 http://www.rosmintrud.ru – Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation (Russian Ministry of Labor).

Chapter 3

Statistics of Living Standards

of Population

After studying this chapter, you will be able to know:

The goals and the statistic indicator system of the population living standards; the characteristic of the employed population working conditions (the number of working hours, the duration paid holiday and the number of days off, working conditions, labor disputes); the indicators of culture, education, health care and so on; the importance of the indicators of population living standards;

Skills to be acquired:

Analyzing and interpreting the indicators of population income; indicators of ulation spending and consumption of material goods and services; savings; indica- tors of population income differentiation, level and poverty line; social-demographic characteristics; making the general assessment of the population living standards.

pop-Key points:

1 Concept of living standards System of statistic indicators of living standards.

2 Population income.

3 Population consumption and spending.

4 Social differentiation of population.

of Living Standards Statistics

Population living standards can be defined as a complex social and economic gory reflecting the level of supply of necessary material goods and services to thepopulation, the achieved consumption level of these material goods and services andthe extent of satisfying reasonable (rational) needs

cate-© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

E V Sibirskaya et al., Economic Systems Analysis: Statistical Indicators,

Studies in Systems, Decision and Control 158,

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91247-9_3

23

Pecuniary valuation of material goods and services actually consumed within theknown time interval at the average household and corresponding to a certain level of

satisfying the needs, represents cost of living In broader sense, population “living

standards” include the conditions of life, work, everyday life and spare time, health

and education of a person, and the term “quality of life” is often used.

Four living standards, demonstrated in Fig.3.1, can be singled out

The main criteria characterizing the population living standards are the indicators

of incomes and spending, the consumption of material goods and services, livingconditions, GDP per capita, free time and others These indicators are studied for theoverall population and across social groups

In world practice, it is suggested to calculate the summary (integral) indicator ofthe population living standards—the Human Development Index (HDI)

The Human Development Index is an integral indicator which is calculated onannual basis for cross-country comparison and measurement assessing the level ofthe average achievement of the country in three main human development areas: thelongevity based on the healthy lifestyle, identified by the life expectancy at birth; theknowledge measured by the adult populations literacy level and the aggregate grossfactor of people who entered primary, secondary and higher educational institutions;and the decent standard of living assessed by the GDP per capita in accordance withthe purchasing power parity

Fig 3.1 Population living

ensuring many-sided development of a person)Normal level (rational consumption of goods according to scientifically based norms)Poverty (consumption of goods at the level of maintainingworking capacity)Destitution (a set of goods and services, minimum acceptable by the biological criteria)

3.1 Concept of Living Standards System of Indicators … 25

The Human Development Index is a standard tool in overall comparison of theliving standards of various countries and regions The index is published in theframework of the UN Development Program in the reports about human potentialdevelopment

In calculating the Human Development Index, three types of indicators are takeninto account: the life expectancy (longevity assessment); the population literacy level(the average number of years spent on education) and the expected duration of stud-ies; the living standards estimated via the Gross National Income per capita in thePurchasing Power Parity in US dollars

The Human Development Index is calculated as the arithmetical mean of the threeabove mentioned indicators:

where x iis the actual value of the indicator;

x imin and x imaxare the minimal and maximal values of the indicator, respectively.Currently, the generalized system of indicators has been developed, which char-acterizes the quantitative and qualitative features of the social and economic differ-entiation of social development (Table3.1)

The report by Stiglietz-Sen-Fitoussi specifies the following key parameters ofhuman well-being: the material level of living, economic security, health, educa-

Table 3.1 Generalized system of indicators

Differentiation factor of health index

(longevity)

It indicates to what extent the health condition

in one country (region) is better than in the other

Differentiation factor of education index It indicates to what extent the population

education level in one country (region) is better than the population education (literacy) level in the other country

Differentiation factor of income index It characterizes the degree of economic

differentiation of analyzed countries or regions Differentiation factor of mortality index It demonstrates the difference in the health

condition of compared countries or regions

tion, personal activities, including work, personal security, social connections andrelations, environment conditions, voting right and governance.

The study by Layard describes the main well-being factors which he calls “BigSeven”: family relations, financial situation, work, communities and friends, health,personal freedom (as it is understood by democratic society) and personal values(people outlook on life) Although this list is not exhaustive, empirical studies demon-strate that life satisfaction mainly depends on these factors

Eurostat expert group on developing the quality of life indicators (on the basis ofthe Eurostat paper published in March 2010)1provided guidelines to assist countries

in measuring indicators which can be used for cross-country comparisons These cators comply with the guidelines of the Sponsorship Group on Measuring Progress,Well-being and Sustainable Development (initiative of Eurostat and INSEE).The OECD How’s Life report defines human well-being by eleven attributesgrouped by categories “material well-being” (income and wealth, work and earnings,accommodation) and “quality of life” (health condition, education and skills, balancebetween work and personal life, social connections, civil society involvement andgovernance, environment qualities, personal safety and subjective well-being) Theattributes chosen by the OECD, are based on those suggested in the report by Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi

indi-In 2010, the indicators measuring the Human Development indi-Index were expanded,and the index was significantly adjusted In addition to the utilized Human Devel-opment Index which is a summary indicator based on the country average statisticaldata, and does not consider the internal inequality, three new indicators were intro-duced:

– Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index;

– Gender Gap Score;

– Multidimensional Poverty Index

In Russia, a seven category system of population living standards indicators hasbeen developed:

1 Summary indicators (GDP and GNI calculated in constant prices per capita;Infant Mortality Rate; Life Expectancy at Birth; Human Development Index)

2 Population income

3 Population consumption and spending

4 Population money savings

5 Accumulated property and provision of population with housing

6 Social differentiation of population

7 Poorer strata of population

Provision of population with housing is the proceed from dividing the housing

stock at the year end by the size of the resident population of the country (region) onthe same date It can be calculated on the basis of:

1 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/gdp and beyond/achievements.

3.1 Concept of Living Standards System of Indicators … 27

– the total area of the housing stock2;

– the residential area

For studying the provision of population with housing, the following indicatorsare calculated as well: the number of families registered on the waiting list for beingprovided with state housing; the number of families which improved their housingconditions; the average amount of square meters of residential area per person

In order to study the poorer strata of the population, the following indicators are

applied: the amount of the minimum living wage3; the minimum wage4; povertyfactor.5 “Poverty line” indicator reflects the income level which is necessary formaintaining the subsistence living

Population income are the resources in monetary and physical terms which can be

used for satisfying the personal needs and which are the basis of the populationmaterial well-being

Aggregate monetary incomes cover the entire range of the means of subsistence

reaching the population, including free services and services bringing benefits

In real-valued form, population aggregate incomes are subdivided into monetary

and in-kind incomes.

Population monetary incomes6 are defined as the sum of all monetary receipts

to the population, which are available for current consumption and do not reducethe population savings by means of spending financial and non-financial assets orincreasing liabilities

Earned income includes the remunerations related to population participation ineconomic activities The earned income indicator consists of:

2 Housing stock is the totality of all living quarters irrespectively of their ownership type, including residential houses, special purpose buildings (dormitories, shelters, premises for temporary resi- dence of refugees and forced migrants, houses for the lonely old-aged, nursing homes for disabled and others), apartments and other living quarters suited for dwelling Housing stock does not include structures and premises designated for rest, seasonal and temporary residence: country houses, sum- mer garden cottages, sports and tourist lodges, motels, camping sites, sanatoriums, holiday houses, resort hotels, hotels, barracks, railways cars and others.

3 The amount of the minimum living wage in Moscow in 2016 (the 1st quarter data) per capita is 15,041 roubles per month; for children—13,198 roubles per month, for pensioners—10,623 roubles per month The amount of the minimum living wage in Russia in 2016 (the 1st quarter data)—per capita is 9776 roubles per month; for pensioners—8025 per month; for children—9677 per month.

4 In Russia, it amounts to 7500 roubles per month (Federal Law of February 06, 2016 “On Amending the Minimal Monthly Wage”) In Moscow, it amounts to 17,300 roubles.

5 The share of the poor in Russia as of the end of March 2016 was 15.9% It is worth mentioning that one year before, this indicator amounted to 13.8%, and at the end of 2014—11.2%.

6 The methodological provisions on calculating the indicators of population incomes and ing [Electronic resource]//Available: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/ statistics/population/level/# (Accessed 14 October 2016).

spend-(a) incomes of people who are employed;

(b) incomes from self-employment (incomes from entrepreneurial business andother manufacturing activities);

(c) welfare payments;

(d) property incomes;

(e) other monetary receipts

The indicators of incomes of employed workers (salary) are formed on the basis

of companies’ data about the pays for their employees’ work, about the amount ofthe monetary allowances of military men and other payments to employees whichare not considered in the payroll

Incomes from entrepreneurial business and other manufacturing activities includethe following components:

– incomes from work of self-employed;

– incomes from leasing accommodation or the other property;

In the framework of the present methodological provisions, property incomes includethe following types of receipts: dividends,7interest paid for money on individuals’bank accounts in lending agencies; payment of yield on state-issued securities andother securities; investment income (property income of policy holders)

Other monetary receipts They include money orders estimated by the data of theBalance of Payments, the Russian Post and the Bank of Russia; lottery gains andother gambling operations; incomes from handing recyclable materials for recycling;incomes hidden from taxation by means of illegal conversion of money in cash;incomes from selling financial assets; compensation payments to some categories

of individuals, which are established by Sberbank data; interest (except for interestfor mortgage-backed bonds emitted before 01.01.2007); interest (discount) receivedwhen promissory note presented for payment, was paid; material benefit receivedfrom saving on interest for the taxpayer’s use of borrowed (credit) funds received fromcompanies or individual entrepreneurs, from purchasing goods (works, services)and securities; other receipts not distributed along the items of population monetaryincomes’ formation, present in official reports

7 Data are provided by the Federal Tax Service of Russia at the federal level with the breakdown by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Form No 2-NDFL).

3.3 Population Consumption and Consumer Spending 29

Monetary expenditures8of households is the amount of actual expenditures incurred

by the household members within a certain period of time, and they include consumerspending, as well as non-consumer related spending

Population expenditures are identified on the basis of the sum of individual ponents:

com-– consumer spending;

– mandatory payments and various fees;

– other expenditures of population

Consumer spending includes spending of individuals on purchasing goods andpaying for services, as well as payments for goods (works, services) made abroad

by bank cards They include expenditures on purchasing goods in retail outlets andoutside them, as well as through wholesale store networks; expenditures on payingfor services (paying for personal services, paying for transport services; paying forcommunication services, paying for utility services including paying by people fortheir residing in living quarters; expenditures on maintaining and redecorating livingquarters,9paying for the services of cultural institutions, paying for tourist services,paying for the services of hotels and similar means of accommodations, paying forthe services of physical culture and sports, paying for medical services, paying forsanatorium and recovery services, paying for veterinary services, paying for legalservices, paying for education system services, paying for social services provided toseniors and the disabled, paying for other types of services, paying for intermediaryservices when conducting transactions on real estate purchase and sale and leasingreal estate, rent for living quarters10); amount of payments for goods (works, services)produced abroad, by means of bank cards

Mandatory payments and various fees include taxes and duties actually paid bypopulation; insurance payments; fees to public and cooperative organizations; inter-est paid by population for loans (including currency loans), as well as taxes and

8 Methodological provisions on calculating the indicators of population monetary incomes and expenditures [Electronic resource] // Available: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/ rosstat/ru/statistics/population/level/# (Accessed 14 October 2016).

9 The scope of utility services takes into account the amounts of reductions on their payments if the reductions are provided via money transfer to people’s bank accounts If the provided social support

is considered in the utility bills (with subsequent reimbursement of the expenditures incurred by organizations for these purposes), then the scope of utility services reflects the actual amount paid

by population (without subsidies and social support).

10 They are calculated at the federal level with the breakdown for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the basis of the data of OBDKH (Study of Households’ Budgets) and VPN-

2002 (Russian Census of 2002).

duties,11 purchasing lottery tickets and other expenditures on gambling business;sending money orders by population.

The case when population profits exceed expenditures, demonstrates increments

of assets in the form of cash The case when population expenditures exceed profits,demonstrates the population expenditures were partly funded by means of reducingthe assets of households

One of the aspects of studying the population living standards is social ation.12 Social differentiation is a social-economic concept describing the societystratification into groups of people which differ in their social status and incomes.Society has political, economic and social differentiation

differenti-Political differentiation in any modern society occurs by means of populationstratification into the managers and the manageable, into political leaders and therest—broad masses of people

Economic differentiation pinpoints to the differentiation of population incomes,people living standards, it identifies the rich, the middle and the poor populationstrata

A person’s occupation, profession identifies the professional differentiation of thesociety

The key group of factors affecting the incomes differentiation, are significantdifferences: in the amount of monetary payments from the social consumption funds;

in the salary amounts of employees working in public production; in the opportunity

of receiving incomes from redistribution and participation in labor activities, fromnews forms of cooperation; in the amounts received from personal subsidiary plot;

in the amounts and structure

Incomes differentiation demonstrates differences in the consumption of goods and

services by people, that the differences in the population living standards Populationincomes differentiation is based on the amount of the total income per capita.Italian economist V Pareto who researched the issues of income distribution,established that inequality in incomes is inherent to all states in approximately equalproportions.13

11 They include income taxes of individuals including those who are not tax residents of the Russian Federation, individual entrepreneurs with different taxation mode and other taxes, duties, penalties, customs payments, and are identified by the data of the Federal Tax Service of Russia and the Bank