IT training discovering knowledge in data an introduction to data mining (2nd ed ) larose larose 2014 06 30

2.21 A Word About ID Fields 41The R Zone 42 References 48 Exercises 48 Hands-On Analysis 50 3.1 Hypothesis Testing Versus Exploratory Data Analysis 51 3.2 Getting to Know the Data Set 52

DISCOVERING

KNOWLEDGE IN DATA

An Introduction to Data Mining

Second Edition

Daniel T Larose • Chantal D Larose

Wiley Series on Methods and Applications in Data Mining

Daniel T Larose, Series Editor

KNOWLEDGE IN DATA

IN DATA MINING

Series Editor:Daniel T Larose

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining, Second Edition r

Daniel T Larose and Chantal D Larose

Data Mining for Genomics and Proteomics: Analysis of Gene and Protein Expression Data rDarius M Dziuda

Knowledge Discovery with Support Vector MachinesrLutz Hamel

Data-Mining on the Web: Uncovering Patterns in Web Content, Structure, and Usage r

Zdravko Markov and Daniel Larose

Data Mining Methods and Models rDaniel Larose

Practical Text Mining with Perl rRoger Bilisoly

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Larose, Daniel T.

Discovering knowledge in data : an introduction to data mining / Daniel T Larose and

Chantal D Larose – Second edition.

1.1 What is Data Mining? 1

1.2 Wanted: Data Miners 2

1.3 The Need for Human Direction of Data Mining 3

1.4 The Cross-Industry Standard Practice for Data Mining 4

1.4.1 Crisp-DM: The Six Phases 5

1.5 Fallacies of Data Mining 6

1.6 What Tasks Can Data Mining Accomplish? 8

2.1 Why do We Need to Preprocess the Data? 17

2.2 Data Cleaning 17

2.3 Handling Missing Data 19

2.4 Identifying Misclassifications 22

2.5 Graphical Methods for Identifying Outliers 22

2.6 Measures of Center and Spread 23

2.7 Data Transformation 26

2.8 Min-Max Normalization 26

2.9 Z-Score Standardization 27

2.10 Decimal Scaling 28

2.11 Transformations to Achieve Normality 28

2.12 Numerical Methods for Identifying Outliers 35

2.13 Flag Variables 36

2.14 Transforming Categorical Variables into Numerical Variables 37

2.15 Binning Numerical Variables 38

2.16 Reclassifying Categorical Variables 39

2.17 Adding an Index Field 39

2.18 Removing Variables that are Not Useful 39

2.19 Variables that Should Probably Not Be Removed 40

2.20 Removal of Duplicate Records 41

v

2.21 A Word About ID Fields 41

The R Zone 42

References 48

Exercises 48

Hands-On Analysis 50

3.1 Hypothesis Testing Versus Exploratory Data Analysis 51

3.2 Getting to Know the Data Set 52

3.3 Exploring Categorical Variables 55

3.4 Exploring Numeric Variables 62

3.5 Exploring Multivariate Relationships 69

3.6 Selecting Interesting Subsets of the Data for Further Investigation 71

3.7 Using EDA to Uncover Anomalous Fields 71

3.8 Binning Based on Predictive Value 72

3.9 Deriving New Variables: Flag Variables 74

3.10 Deriving New Variables: Numerical Variables 77

3.11 Using EDA to Investigate Correlated Predictor Variables 77

4.1 Data Mining Tasks in Discovering Knowledge in Data 91

4.2 Statistical Approaches to Estimation and Prediction 92

4.3 Statistical Inference 93

4.4 How Confident are We in Our Estimates? 94

4.5 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Mean 95

4.6 How to Reduce the Margin of Error 97

4.7 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Proportion 98

4.8 Hypothesis Testing for the Mean 99

4.9 Assessing the Strength of Evidence Against the Null Hypothesis 101

4.10 Using Confidence Intervals to Perform Hypothesis Tests 102

4.11 Hypothesis Testing for the Proportion 104

The R Zone 105

Reference 106

Exercises 106

5.1 Two-Sample t-Test for Difference in Means 110

5.2 Two-Sample Z-Test for Difference in Proportions 111

5.3 Test for Homogeneity of Proportions 112

5.4 Chi-Square Test for Goodness of Fit of Multinomial Data 114

5.5 Analysis of Variance 115

5.6 Regression Analysis 118

CONTENTS vii

5.7 Hypothesis Testing in Regression 122

5.8 Measuring the Quality of a Regression Model 123

5.9 Dangers of Extrapolation 123

5.10 Confidence Intervals for the Mean Value of y Given x 125

5.11 Prediction Intervals for a Randomly Chosen Value of y Given x 125

6.1 Supervised Versus Unsupervised Methods 138

6.2 Statistical Methodology and Data Mining Methodology 139

6.3 Cross-Validation 139

6.4 Overfitting 141

6.5 BIAS–Variance Trade-Off 142

6.6 Balancing the Training Data Set 144

6.7 Establishing Baseline Performance 145

8.1 What is a Decision Tree? 165

8.2 Requirements for Using Decision Trees 167

8.3 Classification and Regression Trees 168

8.4 C4.5 Algorithm 174

8.5 Decision Rules 179

8.6 Comparison of the C5.0 and Cart Algorithms Applied to Real Data 180

The R Zone 183

References 184

Exercises 185

Hands-On Analysis 185

9.1 Input and Output Encoding 188

9.2 Neural Networks for Estimation and Prediction 190

9.3 Simple Example of a Neural Network 191

9.4 Sigmoid Activation Function 193

CHAPTER 10 HIERARCHICAL AND k-MEANS CLUSTERING 209

10.1 The Clustering Task 209

10.2 Hierarchical Clustering Methods 212

10.3 Single-Linkage Clustering 213

10.4 Complete-Linkage Clustering 214

10.5 k-Means Clustering 215

10.6 Example of k-Means Clustering at Work 216

10.7 Behavior of MSB, MSE, and PSEUDO-F as the k-Means Algorithm Proceeds 219

10.8 Application of k-Means Clustering Using SAS Enterprise Miner 220

10.9 Using Cluster Membership to Predict Churn 223

11.2.1 Kohonen Networks Algorithm 231

11.3 Example of a Kohonen Network Study 231

11.4 Cluster Validity 235

11.5 Application of Clustering Using Kohonen Networks 235

12.1 Affinity Analysis and Market Basket Analysis 247

12.1.1 Data Representation for Market Basket Analysis 248

12.2 Support, Confidence, Frequent Itemsets, and the a Priori Property 249

12.3 How Does the a Priori Algorithm Work? 251

12.3.1 Generating Frequent Itemsets 251

12.3.2 Generating Association Rules 253

12.4 Extension from Flag Data to General Categorical Data 255

12.5 Information-Theoretic Approach: Generalized Rule Induction Method 256

12.5.1 J-Measure 257

12.6 Association Rules are Easy to do Badly 258

12.7 How Can We Measure the Usefulness of Association Rules? 259

12.8 Do Association Rules Represent Supervised or Unsupervised Learning? 260

12.9 Local Patterns Versus Global Models 261

The R Zone 262

References 263

Exercises 263

Hands-On Analysis 264

13.1 Need for Imputation of Missing Data 266

13.2 Imputation of Missing Data: Continuous Variables 267

13.3 Standard Error of the Imputation 270

13.4 Imputation of Missing Data: Categorical Variables 271

13.5 Handling Patterns in Missingness 272

The R Zone 273

Reference 276

Exercises 276

Hands-On Analysis 276

14.1 Model Evaluation Techniques for the Description Task 278

14.2 Model Evaluation Techniques for the Estimation and Prediction Tasks 278

14.3 Model Evaluation Techniques for the Classification Task 280

14.4 Error Rate, False Positives, and False Negatives 280

14.5 Sensitivity and Specificity 283

14.6 Misclassification Cost Adjustment to Reflect Real-World Concerns 284

14.7 Decision Cost/Benefit Analysis 285

14.8 Lift Charts and Gains Charts 286

14.9 Interweaving Model Evaluation with Model Building 289

14.10 Confluence of Results: Applying a Suite of Models 290

WHAT IS DATA MINING?

According to the Gartner Group,

Data mining is the process of discovering meaningful new correlations, patterns andtrends by sifting through large amounts of data stored in repositories, using patternrecognition technologies as well as statistical and mathematical techniques

Today, there are a variety of terms used to describe this process, including ics, predictive analytics, big data, machine learning, and knowledge discovery in databases But these terms all share in common the objective of mining actionable nuggets of knowledge from large data sets We shall therefore use the term data mining to represent this process throughout this text.

analyt-WHY IS THIS BOOK NEEDED?

Humans are inundated with data in most fields Unfortunately, these valuable data,which cost firms millions to collect and collate, are languishing in warehouses and

repositories The problem is that there are not enough trained human analysts able who are skilled at translating all of these data into knowledge, and thence up

avail-the taxonomy tree into wisdom This is why this book is needed

The McKinsey Global Institute reports:1

There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of bigdata A significant constraint on realizing value from big data will be a shortage of talent,particularly of people with deep expertise in statistics and machine learning, and themanagers and analysts who know how to operate companies by using insights from bigdata We project that demand for deep analytical positions in a big data world couldexceed the supply being produced on current trends by 140,000 to 190,000 positions In addition, we project a need for 1.5 million additional managers and analysts inthe United States who can ask the right questions and consume the results of the analysis

of big data effectively

This book is an attempt to help alleviate this critical shortage of data analysts

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining provides readers

with:

r The models and techniques to uncover hidden nuggets of information,

1Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity, by James Manyika et al.,

Mckinsey Global Institute, www.mckinsey.com, May, 2011 Last accessed March 16, 2014.

xi

r The insight into how the data mining algorithms really work, and

r The experience of actually performing data mining on large data sets.

Data mining is becoming more widespread everyday, because it empowers companies

to uncover profitable patterns and trends from their existing databases Companiesand institutions have spent millions of dollars to collect megabytes and terabytes ofdata, but are not taking advantage of the valuable and actionable information hiddendeep within their data repositories However, as the practice of data mining becomesmore widespread, companies which do not apply these techniques are in danger offalling behind, and losing market share, because their competitors are applying datamining, and thereby gaining the competitive edge

In Discovering Knowledge in Data, the step-by-step, hands-on solutions of

real-world business problems, using widely available data mining techniques applied

to real-world data sets, will appeal to managers, CIOs, CEOs, CFOs, and others whoneed to keep abreast of the latest methods for enhancing return-on-investment

WHAT’S NEW FOR THE SECOND EDITION?

The second edition of Discovery Knowledge in Data is enhanced with an abundance

of new material and useful features, including:

r Nearly 100 pages of new material.

r Three new chapters:

e Chapter 5: Multivariate Statistical Analysis covers the hypothesis tests used

for verifying whether data partitions are valid, along with analysis of ance, multiple regression, and other topics

vari-e Chapter 6: Preparing to Model the Data introduces a new formula for

bal-ancing the training data set, and examines the importance of establishingbaseline performance, among other topics

e Chapter 13: Imputation of Missing Data addresses one of the most

over-looked issues in data analysis, and shows how to impute missing values forcontinuous variables and for categorical variables, as well as how to handlepatterns in missingness

r The R Zone In most chapters of this book, the reader will find The R Zone,

which provides the actual R code needed to obtain the results shown in the

chapter, along with screen shots of some of the output, using R Studio.

r A host of new topics not covered in the first edition Here is a sample of these

new topics, chapter by chapter:

e Chapter 2: Data Preprocessing Decimal scaling; Transformations to achieve

normality; Flag variables; Transforming categorical variables into numericalvariables; Binning numerical variables; Reclassifying categorical variables;Adding an index field; Removal of duplicate records

PREFACE xiii

e Chapter 3: Exploratory Data Analysis Binning based on predictive value;

Deriving new variables: Flag variables; Deriving new variables: Numericalvariables; Using EDA to investigate correlated predictor variables

e Chapter 4: Univariate Statistical Analysis How to reduce the margin of

error; Confidence interval estimation of the proportion; Hypothesis testingfor the mean; Assessing the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis;Using confidence intervals to perform hypothesis tests; Hypothesis testingfor the proportion

e Chapter 5: Multivariate Statistics Two-sample test for difference in means;

Two-sample test for difference in proportions; Test for homogeneity of portions; Chi-square test for goodness of fit of multinomial data; Analysis

pro-of variance; Hypothesis testing in regression; Measuring the quality pro-of aregression model

e Chapter 6: Preparing to Model the Data Balancing the training data set;

Establishing baseline performance

e Chapter 7: k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm Application of k-nearest neighbor

algorithm using IBM/SPSS Modeler

e Chapter 10: Hierarchical and k-Means Clustering Behavior of MSB, MSE, and pseudo-F as the k-means algorithm proceeds.

e Chapter 12: Association Rules How can we measure the usefulness of

asso-ciation rules?

e Chapter 13: Imputation of Missing Data Need for imputation of missing

data; Imputation of missing data for continuous variables; Imputation ofmissing data for categorical variables; Handling patterns in missingness

e Chapter 14: Model Evaluation Techniques Sensitivity and Specificity.

r An Appendix on Data Summarization and Visualization Readers who may be a

bit rusty on introductory statistics may find this new feature helpful Definitionsand illustrative examples of introductory statistical concepts are provided here,along with many graphs and tables, as follows:

e Part 1: Summarization 1: Building Blocks of Data Analysis

e Part 2: Visualization: Graphs and Tables for Summarizing and Organizing Data

e Part 3: Summarization 2: Measures of Center, Variability, and Position

e Part 4: Summarization and Visualization of Bivariate Relationships

r New Exercises There are over 100 new chapter exercises in the second edition.

DANGER! DATA MINING IS EASY TO DO BADLY

The plethora of new off-the-shelf software platforms for performing data mining haskindled a new kind of danger The ease with which these graphical user interface(GUI)-based applications can manipulate data, combined with the power of the

formidable data mining algorithms embedded in the black box software currentlyavailable, makes their misuse proportionally more hazardous.

Just as with any new information technology, data mining is easy to do badly A

little knowledge is especially dangerous when it comes to applying powerful modelsbased on large data sets For example, analyses carried out on unpreprocessed datacan lead to erroneous conclusions, or inappropriate analysis may be applied to datasets that call for a completely different approach, or models may be derived that arebuilt upon wholly specious assumptions These errors in analysis can lead to veryexpensive failures, if deployed

“WHITE BOX” APPROACH: UNDERSTANDING

THE UNDERLYING ALGORITHMIC AND MODEL

STRUCTURES

The best way to avoid these costly errors, which stem from a blind black-box approach

to data mining, is to instead apply a “white-box” methodology, which emphasizes

an understanding of the algorithmic and statistical model structures underlying thesoftware

Discovering Knowledge in Dataapplies this white-box approach by:

r Walking the reader through the various algorithms;

r Providing examples of the operation of the algorithm on actual large data sets;

r Testing the reader’s level of understanding of the concepts and algorithms;

r Providing an opportunity for the reader to do some real data mining on large

data sets; and

r Supplying the reader with the actual R code used to achieve these data mining

results, in The R Zone.

Algorithm Walk-Throughs

Discovering Knowledge in Data walks the reader through the operations and nuances

of the various algorithms, using small sample data sets, so that the reader gets a trueappreciation of what is really going on inside the algorithm For example, in Chapter

10, Hierarchical and K-Means Clustering, we see the updated cluster centers being

updated, moving toward the center of their respective clusters Also, in Chapter

11, Kohonen Networks, we see just which kind of network weights will result in a

particular network node “winning” a particular record

Applications of the Algorithms to Large Data Sets

Discovering Knowledge in Data provides examples of the application of the various algorithms on actual large data sets For example, in Chapter 9, Neural Networks,

a classification problem is attacked using a neural network model on a real-worlddata set The resulting neural network topology is examined, along with the networkconnection weights, as reported by the software These data sets are included on the

PREFACE xv

data disk, so that the reader may follow the analytical steps on their own, using datamining software of their choice

Chapter Exercises: Check Your Understanding

Discovering Knowledge in Data includes over 260 chapter exercises, which allow

readers to assess their depth of understanding of the material, as well as have a littlefun playing with numbers and data These include conceptual exercises, which help

to clarify some of the more challenging concepts in data mining, and “Tiny data set”exercises, which challenge the reader to apply the particular data mining algorithm

to a small data set, and, step-by-step, to arrive at a computationally sound solution

For example, in Chapter 8, Decision Trees, readers are provided with a small data

set and asked to construct—by hand, using the methods shown in the chapter—a

C4.5 decision tree model, as well as a classification and regression tree model, and

to compare the benefits and drawbacks of each

Hands-On Analysis: Learn Data Mining by Doing Data Mining

Most chapters provide hands-on analysis problems, representing an opportunity for

the reader to apply newly-acquired data mining expertise to solving real problemsusing large data sets Many people learn by doing This book provides a frameworkwhere the reader can learn data mining by doing data mining

The intention is to mirror the real-world data mining scenario In the real world,dirty data sets need to be cleaned; raw data needs to be normalized; outliers need to

be checked So it is with Discovering Knowledge in Data, where about 100 hands-on

analysis problems are provided The reader can “ramp up” quickly, and be “up andrunning” data mining analyses in a short time

For example, in Chapter 12, Association Rules, readers are challenged to

uncover high confidence, high support rules for predicting which customer will be

leaving the company’s service In Chapter 14, Model Evaluation Techniques, readers

are asked to produce lift charts and gains charts for a set of classification modelsusing a large data set, so that the best model may be identified

The R Zone

R is a powerful, open-source language for exploring and analyzing data sets project.org) Analysts using R can take advantage of many freely available packages,

(www.r-routines, and GUIs, to tackle most data analysis problems In most chapters of this

book, the reader will find The R Zone, which provides the actual R code needed to

obtain the results shown in the chapter, along with screen shots of some of the output

The R Zone is written by Chantal D Larose (Ph.D candidate in Statistics, University

of Connecticut, Storrs), daughter of the author, and R expert, who uses R extensively

in her research, including research on multiple imputation of missing data, with herdissertation advisors, Dr Dipak Dey and Dr Ofer Harel

DATA MINING AS A PROCESS

One of the fallacies associated with data mining implementations is that data miningsomehow represents an isolated set of tools, to be applied by an aloof analysisdepartment, and marginally related to the mainstream business or research endeavor.Organizations which attempt to implement data mining in this way will see their

chances of success much reduced Data mining should be viewed as a process Discovering Knowledge in Data presents data mining as a well-structured standard process, intimately connected with managers, decision makers, and those

involved in deploying the results Thus, this book is not only for analysts, but formanagers as well, who need to communicate in the language of data mining

The standard process used is the CRISP-DM framework: the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining CRISP-DM demands that data mining be seen as

an entire process, from communication of the business problem, through data lection and management, data preprocessing, model building, model evaluation, and,finally, model deployment Therefore, this book is not only for analysts and managers,but also for data management professionals, database analysts, and decision makers

col-GRAPHICAL APPROACH, EMPHASIZING EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS

Discovering Knowledge in Data emphasizes a graphical approach to data analysis.

There are more than 170 screen shots of computer output throughout the text, and 40other figures Exploratory data analysis (EDA) represents an interesting and fun way

to “feel your way” through large data sets Using graphical and numerical summaries,the analyst gradually sheds light on the complex relationships hidden within the data

Discovering Knowledge in Data emphasizes an EDA approach to data mining, which

goes hand-in-hand with the overall graphical approach

HOW THE BOOK IS STRUCTURED

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining provides a

compre-hensive introduction to the field Common myths about data mining are debunked, andcommon pitfalls are flagged, so that new data miners do not have to learn these lessons

themselves The first three chapters introduce and follow the CRISP-DM standard

process, especially the data preparation phase and data understanding phase The next

nine chapters represent the heart of the book, and are associated with the CRISP-DM

modeling phase Each chapter presents data mining methods and techniques for aspecific data mining task

r Chapters 4 and 5 examine univariate and multivariate statistical analyses,

respectively, and exemplify the estimation and prediction tasks, for example,

using multiple regression

PREFACE xvii

r Chapters 7–9 relate to the classification task, examining k-nearest neighbor

(Chapter 7), decision trees (Chapter 8), and neural network (Chapter 9) rithms

algo-r Chapters 10 and 11 investigate the clustering task, with hierarchical and

k-means clustering (Chapter 10) and Kohonen networks (Chapter 11) algorithms

r Chapter 12 handles the association task, examining association rules through

the a priori and GRI algorithms.

r Finally, Chapter 14 considers model evaluation techniques, which belong to

the CRISP-DM evaluation phase.

Discovering Knowledge in Data as a Textbook

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining naturally fits the

role of textbook for an introductory course in data mining Instructors may appreciate:

r The presentation of data mining as a process

r The “White-box” approach, emphasizing an understanding of the underlying

r The graphical approach, emphasizing exploratory data analysis, and

r The logical presentation, flowing naturally from the CRISP-DM standard

pro-cess and the set of data mining tasks

Discovering Knowledge in Data is appropriate for advanced undergraduate or

graduate-level courses Except for one section in the neural networks chapter, nocalculus is required An introductory statistics course would be nice, but is notrequired No computer programming or database expertise is required

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I first wish to thank my mentor Dr Dipak K Dey, Distinguished Professor of Statistics,and Associate Dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the University ofConnecticut, as well as Dr John Judge, Professor of Statistics in the Department ofMathematics at Westfield State College My debt to the two of you is boundless, andnow extends beyond one lifetime Also, I wish to thank my colleagues in the datamining programs at Central Connecticut State University: Dr Chun Jin, Dr Daniel

S Miller, Dr Roger Bilisoly, Dr Darius Dziuda, and Dr Krishna Saha Thanks to

my daughter Chantal Danielle Larose, for her important contribution to this book,

as well as for her cheerful affection and gentle insanity Thanks to my twin children

Tristan Spring and Ravel Renaissance for providing perspective on what life is reallyabout Finally, I would like to thank my wonderful wife, Debra J Larose, for our lifetogether.

Daniel T Larose, Ph.D

Professor of Statistics and Data Mining

Director, Data Mining@CCSU

www.math.ccsu.edu/larose

I would first like to thank my PhD advisors, Dr Dipak Dey, Distinguished Professorand Associate Dean, and Dr Ofer Harel, Associate Professor, both from the Depart-ment of Statistics at the University of Connecticut Their insight and understandinghave framed and sculpted our exciting research program, including my PhD disser-tation, Model-Based Clustering of Incomplete Data Thanks also to my father Danielfor kindling my enduring love of data analysis, and to my mother Debra for hercare and patience through many statistics-filled conversations Finally thanks to mysiblings, Ravel and Tristan, for perspective, music, and friendship

CHAPTER 1

AN INTRODUCTION TO

DATA MINING

1.1 WHAT IS DATA MINING? 1

1.2 WANTED: DATA MINERS 2

1.3 THE NEED FOR HUMAN DIRECTION OF DATA MINING 3

1.4 THE CROSS-INDUSTRY STANDARD PRACTICE FOR DATA MINING 4 1.5 FALLACIES OF DATA MINING 6

1.6 WHAT TASKS CAN DATA MINING ACCOMPLISH? 8

REFERENCES 14

EXERCISES 15

1.1 WHAT IS DATA MINING?

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) reports [1] that most American companies withmore than 1000 employees had an average of at least 200 terabytes of stored data MGIprojects that the amount of data generated worldwide will increase by 40% annually,creating profitable opportunities for companies to leverage their data to reduce costsand increase their bottom line For example, retailers harnessing this “big data” to bestadvantage could expect to realize an increase in their operating margin of more than60%, according to the MGI report And healthcare providers and health maintenanceorganizations (HMOs) that properly leverage their data storehouses could achieve

$300 in cost savings annually, through improved efficiency and quality

The MIT Technology Review reports [2] that it was the Obama campaign’seffective use of data mining that helped President Obama win the 2012 presidentialelection over Mitt Romney They first identified likely Obama voters using a datamining model, and then made sure that these voters actually got to the polls Thecampaign also used a separate data mining model to predict the polling outcomes

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining, Second Edition.

By Daniel T Larose and Chantal D Larose.

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Published 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

1

county-by-county In the important swing county of Hamilton County, Ohio, themodel predicted that Obama would receive 56.4% of the vote; the Obama share of theactual vote was 56.6%, so that the prediction was off by only 0.02% Such precise pre-dictive power allowed the campaign staff to allocate scarce resources more efficiently.About 13 million customers per month contact the West Coast customer service

call center of the Bank of America, as reported by CIO Magazine [3] In the past,

each caller would have listened to the same marketing advertisement, whether or not

it was relevant to the caller’s interests However, “rather than pitch the product of theweek, we want to be as relevant as possible to each customer,” states Chris Kelly, vicepresident and director of database marketing at Bank of America in San Francisco.Thus Bank of America’s customer service representatives have access to individualcustomer profiles, so that the customer can be informed of new products or servicesthat may be of greatest interest to him or her This is an example of mining customerdata to help identify the type of marketing approach for a particular customer, based

on customer’s individual profile

So, what is data mining?

Data mining is the process of discovering useful patterns and trends in large data

sets

While waiting in line at a large supermarket, have you ever just closed youreyes and listened? You might hear the beep, beep, beep, of the supermarket scanners,reading the bar codes on the grocery items, ringing up on the register, and storingthe data on company servers Each beep indicates a new row in the database, a new

“observation” in the information being collected about the shopping habits of yourfamily, and the other families who are checking out

Clearly, a lot of data is being collected However, what is being learned fromall this data? What knowledge are we gaining from all this information? Probablynot as much as you might think, because there is a serious shortage of skilled dataanalysts

1.2 WANTED: DATA MINERS

As early as 1984, in his book Megatrends [4], John Naisbitt observed that “We are

drowning in information but starved for knowledge.” The problem today is not thatthere is not enough data and information streaming in We are in fact inundated with

data in most fields Rather, the problem is that there are not enough trained human

analysts available who are skilled at translating all of these data into knowledge, andthence up the taxonomy tree into wisdom

The ongoing remarkable growth in the field of data mining and knowledgediscovery has been fueled by a fortunate confluence of a variety of factors:

r The explosive growth in data collection, as exemplified by the supermarket

scanners above,

1.3 THE NEED FOR HUMAN DIRECTION OF DATA MINING 3

r The storing of the data in data warehouses, so that the entire enterprise has

access to a reliable, current database,

r The availability of increased access to data from web navigation and intranets,

r The competitive pressure to increase market share in a globalized economy,

r The development of “off-the-shelf” commercial data mining software suites,

r The tremendous growth in computing power and storage capacity.

Unfortunately, according to the McKinsey report [1],

There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of bigdata A significant constraint on realizing value from big data will be a shortage of talent,particularly of people with deep expertise in statistics and machine learning, and themanagers and analysts who know how to operate companies by using insights from bigdata We project that demand for deep analytical positions in a big data world couldexceed the supply being produced on current trends by 140,000 to 190,000 positions

In addition, we project a need for 1.5 million additional managers and analysts in theUnited States who can ask the right questions and consume the results of the analysis

of big data effectively

This book is an attempt to help alleviate this critical shortage of data analysts

1.3 THE NEED FOR HUMAN DIRECTION

OF DATA MINING

Many software vendors market their analytical software as being a plug-and-play, of-the-box application that will provide solutions to otherwise intractable problems,without the need for human supervision or interaction Some early definitions of datamining followed this focus on automation For example, Berry and Linoff, in their

out-book Data Mining Techniques for Marketing, Sales and Customer Support [5] gave

the following definition for data mining: “Data mining is the process of exploration

and analysis, by automatic or semi-automatic means, of large quantities of data in

order to discover meaningful patterns and rules” [emphasis added] Three years later,

in their sequel Mastering Data Mining [6], the authors revisit their definition of data

mining, and mention that, “If there is anything we regret, it is the phrase ‘by automatic

or semi-automatic means’ because we feel there has come to be too much focus

on the automatic techniques and not enough on the exploration and analysis This hasmisled many people into believing that data mining is a product that can be boughtrather than a discipline that must be mastered.”

Very well stated! Automation is no substitute for human input Humans need

to be actively involved at every phase of the data mining process Rather than askingwhere humans fit into data mining, we should instead inquire about how we maydesign data mining into the very human process of problem solving

Further, the very power of the formidable data mining algorithms embedded inthe black box software currently available makes their misuse proportionally more

dangerous Just as with any new information technology, data mining is easy to

do badly Researchers may apply inappropriate analysis to data sets that call for a

completely different approach, for example, or models may be derived that are builtupon wholly specious assumptions Therefore, an understanding of the statistical andmathematical model structures underlying the software is required.

1.4 THE CROSS-INDUSTRY STANDARD PRACTICE

FOR DATA MINING

There is a temptation in some companies, due to departmental inertia and partmentalization, to approach data mining haphazardly, to re-invent the wheel andduplicate effort A cross-industry standard was clearly required, that is industry-neutral, tool-neutral, and application-neutral The Cross-Industry Standard Processfor Data Mining (CRISP-DM) [7] was developed by analysts representing Daimler-Chrysler, SPSS, and NCR CRISP provides a nonproprietary and freely availablestandard process for fitting data mining into the general problem solving strategy of

com-a business or resecom-arch unit

According to CRISP-DM, a given data mining project has a life cycle consisting

of six phases, as illustrated in Figure 1.1 Note that the phase-sequence is adaptive.

Business / Research Understanding Phase

Deployment Phase

Evaluation Phase Modeling Phase

Data Understanding Phase

Data Preparation Phase

Figure 1.1 CRISP-DM is an iterative, adaptive process

1.4 THE CROSS-INDUSTRY STANDARD PRACTICE FOR DATA MINING 5

That is, the next phase in the sequence often depends on the outcomes associated withthe previous phase The most significant dependencies between phases are indicated

by the arrows For example, suppose we are in the modeling phase Depending

on the behavior and characteristics of the model, we may have to return to thedata preparation phase for further refinement before moving forward to the modelevaluation phase

The iterative nature of CRISP is symbolized by the outer circle in Figure 1.1.Often, the solution to a particular business or research problem leads to furtherquestions of interest, which may then be attacked using the same general process asbefore Lessons learned from past projects should always be brought to bear as inputinto new projects Here is an outline of each phase

Issues encountered during the evaluation phase can conceivably send the analystback to any of the previous phases for amelioration

1.4.1 Crisp-DM: The Six Phases

1 Business/Research Understanding Phase

a First, clearly enunciate the project objectives and requirements in terms of

the business or research unit as a whole

b Then, translate these goals and restrictions into the formulation of a data

mining problem definition

c Finally, prepare a preliminary strategy for achieving these objectives.

2 Data Understanding Phase

a First, collect the data.

b Then, use exploratory data analysis to familiarize yourself with the data,

and discover initial insights

c Evaluate the quality of the data.

d Finally, if desired, select interesting subsets that may contain actionable

patterns

3 Data Preparation Phase

a This labor-intensive phase covers all aspects of preparing the final data

set, which shall be used for subsequent phases, from the initial, raw,dirty data

b Select the cases and variables you want to analyze, and that are appropriate

for your analysis

c Perform transformations on certain variables, if needed.

d Clean the raw data so that it is ready for the modeling tools.

4 Modeling Phase

a Select and apply appropriate modeling techniques.

b Calibrate model settings to optimize results.

c Often, several different techniques may be applied for the same data mining

problem

d May require looping back to data preparation phase, in order to bring the

form of the data into line with the specific requirements of a particular datamining technique

5 Evaluation Phase

a The modeling phase has delivered one or more models These models must

be evaluated for quality and effectiveness, before we deploy them for use inthe field

b Also, determine whether the model in fact achieves the objectives set for it

in Phase 1

c Establish whether some important facet of the business or research problem

has not been sufficiently accounted for

d Finally, come to a decision regarding the use of the data mining results.

6 Deployment Phase

a Model creation does not signify the completion of the project Need to make

use of created models

b Example of a simple deployment: Generate a report.

c Example of a more complex deployment: Implement a parallel data mining

process in another department

d For businesses, the customer often carries out the deployment based on your

model

This book broadly follows CRISP-DM, with some modifications For example,

we prefer to clean the data (Chapter 2) before performing exploratory data analysis(Chapter 3)

1.5 FALLACIES OF DATA MINING

Speaking before the US House of Representatives SubCommittee on Technology,Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations, and Census, Jen Que Louie, Pres-ident of Nautilus Systems, Inc described four fallacies of data mining [8] Two ofthese fallacies parallel the warnings we have described above

repositories, and find answers to our problems

e Reality There are no automatic data mining tools, which will mechanically

solve your problems “while you wait.” Rather data mining is a process.CRISP-DM is one method for fitting the data mining process into the overallbusiness or research plan of action

1.5 FALLACIES OF DATA MINING 7

oversight

e Reality Data mining is not magic Without skilled human supervision, blind

use of data mining software will only provide you with the wrong answer

to the wrong question applied to the wrong type of data Further, the wronganalysis is worse than no analysis, since it leads to policy recommendationsthat will probably turn out to be expensive failures Even after the model

is deployed, the introduction of new data often requires an updating of themodel Continuous quality monitoring and other evaluative measures must

be assessed, by human analysts

e Reality The return rates vary, depending on the start-up costs, analysis

personnel costs, data warehousing preparation costs, and so on

e Reality Again, ease of use varies However, regardless of what some

soft-ware vendor advertisements may claim, you cannot just purchase some datamining software, install it, sit back, and watch it solve all your problems.For example, the algorithms require specific data formats, which may requiresubstantial preprocessing Data analysts must combine subject matter knowl-edge with an analytical mind, and a familiarity with the overall business orresearch model

To the above list, we add three further common fallacies:

problems

e Reality The knowledge discovery process will help you to uncover patterns

of behavior Again, it is up to the humans to identify the causes

e Reality Well, not automatically As a preliminary phase in the data

min-ing process, data preparation often deals with data that has not beenexamined or used in years Therefore, organizations beginning a newdata mining operation will often be confronted with the problem of datathat has been lying around for years, is stale, and needs considerableupdating

e Reality There is no guarantee of positive results when mining data for

action-able knowledge Data mining is not a panacea for solving business problems.But, used properly, by people who understand the models involved, the datarequirements, and the overall project objectives, data mining can indeedprovide actionable and highly profitable results

The above discussion may have been termed, what data mining cannot or

should not do Next we turn to a discussion of what data mining can do.

1.6 WHAT TASKS CAN DATA MINING ACCOMPLISH?

The following list shows the most common data mining tasks

Data Mining Tasks

Sometimes researchers and analysts are simply trying to find ways to describe patterns

and trends lying within the data For example, a pollster may uncover evidence thatthose who have been laid off are less likely to support the present incumbent inthe presidential election Descriptions of patterns and trends often suggest possibleexplanations for such patterns and trends For example, those who are laid off arenow less well off financially than before the incumbent was elected, and so wouldtend to prefer an alternative

Data mining models should be as transparent as possible That is, the results

of the data mining model should describe clear patterns that are amenable to intuitiveinterpretation and explanation Some data mining methods are more suited to trans-parent interpretation than others For example, decision trees provide an intuitive andhuman-friendly explanation of their results On the other hand, neural networks arecomparatively opaque to nonspecialists, due to the nonlinearity and complexity ofthe model

High quality description can often be accomplished with exploratory data

analysis, a graphical method of exploring the data in search of patterns and trends.

We look at exploratory data analysis in Chapter 3

1.6.2 Estimation

In estimation, we approximate the value of a numeric target variable using a set ofnumeric and/or categorical predictor variables Models are built using “complete”records, which provide the value of the target variable, as well as the predictors.Then, for new observations, estimates of the value of the target variable are made,based on the values of the predictors

For example, we might be interested in estimating the systolic blood pressurereading of a hospital patient, based on the patient’s age, gender, body-mass index,and blood sodium levels The relationship between systolic blood pressure and thepredictor variables in the training set would provide us with an estimation model Wecan then apply that model to new cases

1.6 WHAT TASKS CAN DATA MINING ACCOMPLISH? 9

Examples of estimation tasks in business and research include

r Estimating the amount of money a randomly chosen family of four will spend

for back-to-school shopping this fall

r Estimating the percentage decrease in rotary movement sustained by a football

running back with a knee injury

r Estimating the number of points per game, LeBron James will score when

double-teamed in the playoffs

r Estimating the grade point average (GPA) of a graduate student, based on that

student’s undergraduate GPA

Consider Figure 1.2, where we have a scatter plot of the graduate GPAs againstthe undergraduate GPAs for 1000 students Simple linear regression allows us tofind the line that best approximates the relationship between these two variables,according to the least squares criterion The regression line, indicated as a straightline increasing from left to right in Figure 1.2 may then be used to estimate thegraduate GPA of a student, given that student’s undergraduate GPA

Here, the equation of the regression line (as produced by the statistical package

Minitab, which also produced the graph) is ̂y = 1.24 + 0.67 x This tells us that the

estimated graduate GPÂy equals 1.24 plus 0.67 times the student’s undergrad GPA.

For example, if your undergrad GPA is 3.0, then your estimated graduate GPA is

̂y = 1.24 + 0.67 (3) = 3.25 Note that this point (x = 3.0, ̂y = 3.25) lies precisely on

the regression line, as do all of the linear regression predictions

The field of statistical analysis supplies several venerable and widely used mation methods These include, point estimation and confidence interval estimations,simple linear regression and correlation, and multiple regression We examine these

esti-2 2

3

4

3.25

3 GPA - Undergraduate

methods and more in Chapters 4 and 5 Neural networks (Chapter 9) may also beused for estimation.

1.6.3 Prediction

Prediction is similar to classification and estimation, except that for prediction, theresults lie in the future Examples of prediction tasks in business and research include

r Predicting the price of a stock 3 months into the future.

r Predicting the percentage increase in traffic deaths next year if the speed limit

is increased

r Predicting the winner of this fall’s World Series, based on a comparison of the

team statistics

r Predicting whether a particular molecule in drug discovery will lead to a

prof-itable new drug for a pharmaceutical company

Any of the methods and techniques used for classification and estimation mayalso be used, under appropriate circumstances, for prediction These include the tra-ditional statistical methods of point estimation and confidence interval estimations,simple linear regression and correlation, and multiple regression, investigated inChapters 4 and 5, as well as data mining and knowledge discovery methods like

k-nearest neighbor methods (Chapter 7), decision trees (Chapter 8), and neural

networks (Chapter 9)

1.6.4 Classification

Classification is similar to estimation, except that the target variable is categoricalrather than numeric In classification, there is a target categorical variable, such

as income bracket, which, for example, could be partitioned into three classes or

categories: high income, middle income, and low income The data mining modelexamines a large set of records, each record containing information on the targetvariable as well as a set of input or predictor variables For example, consider theexcerpt from a data set shown in Table 1.1

Suppose the researcher would like to be able to classify the income bracket of

new individuals, not currently in the above database, based on the other characteristicsassociated with that individual, such as age, gender, and occupation This task is aclassification task, very nicely suited to data mining methods and techniques

TABLE 1.1 Excerpt from data set for classifying income

1.6 WHAT TASKS CAN DATA MINING ACCOMPLISH? 11

The algorithm would proceed roughly as follows First, examine the dataset containing both the predictor variables and the (already classified) target

variable, income bracket In this way, the algorithm (software) “learns about” which

combinations of variables are associated with which income brackets For example,older females may be associated with the high income bracket This data set is called

the training set.

Then the algorithm would look at new records, for which no informationabout income bracket is available Based on the classifications in the training set, thealgorithm would assign classifications to the new records For example, a 63-year-oldfemale professor might be classified in the high income bracket

Examples of classification tasks in business and research include

r Determining whether a particular credit card transaction is fraudulent;

r Placing a new student into a particular track with regard to special needs;

r Assessing whether a mortgage application is a good or bad credit risk;

r Diagnosing whether a particular disease is present;

r Determining whether a will was written by the actual deceased, or fraudulently

by someone else;

r Identifying whether or not certain financial or personal behavior indicates

possible criminal behavior

For example, in the medical field, suppose we are interested in classifying thetype of drug a patient should be prescribed, based on certain patient characteristics,such as the age of the patient and the patient’s sodium/potassium (Na/K) ratio For asample of 200 patients, Figure 1.3 presents a scatter plot of the patients’ Na/K ratioagainst the patients’ age The particular drug prescribed is symbolized by the shade

of the points Light gray points indicate Drug Y; medium gray points indicate Drugs

A or X; dark gray points indicate Drugs B or C In this scatter plot, Na/K ratio isplotted on the Y (vertical) axis and age is plotted on the X (horizontal) axis.Suppose that we will base our prescription recommendation based on thisdata set

1 Which drug should be prescribed for a young patient with high Na/K ratio?

2 Young patients are on the left in the graph, and high Na/K ratios are in the

upper half, which indicates that previous young patients with high Na/K ratioswere prescribed Drug Y (light gray points) The recommended prediction clas-sification for such patients is Drug Y

3 Which drug should be prescribed for older patients with low Na/K ratios?

4 Patients in the lower right of the graph have been taking different prescriptions,

indicated by either dark gray (Drugs B or C) or medium gray (Drugs A or X).Without more specific information, a definitive classification cannot be madehere For example, perhaps these drugs have varying interactions with beta-blockers, estrogens, or other medications, or are contraindicated for conditionssuch as asthma or heart disease

Figure 1.3 Which drug should be prescribed for which type of patient?

Graphs and plots are helpful for understanding two and three dimensionalrelationships in data But sometimes classifications need to be based on many dif-ferent predictors, requiring a many-dimensional plot Therefore, we need to turn tomore sophisticated models to perform our classification tasks Common data mining

methods used for classification are k-nearest neighbor (Chapter 7), decision trees

(Chapter 8), and neural networks (Chapter 9)

1.6.5 Clustering

Clustering refers to the grouping of records, observations, or cases into classes of

similar objects A cluster is a collection of records that are similar to one another, and

dissimilar to records in other clusters Clustering differs from classification in thatthere is no target variable for clustering The clustering task does not try to classify,estimate, or predict the value of a target variable Instead, clustering algorithms seek

to segment the whole data set into relatively homogeneous subgroups or clusters,where the similarity of the records within the cluster is maximized, and the similarity

to records outside of this cluster is minimized

Nielsen Claritas is in the clustering business Among the services they provide

is a demographic profile of each of the geographic areas in the country, as defined

by zip code One of the clustering mechanisms they use is the PRIZM segmentation

system, which describes every American zip code area in terms of distinct lifestyletypes The 66 distinct clusters are shown in Table 1.2

For illustration, the clusters for zip code 90210, Beverly Hills, California are

r Cluster # 01: Upper Crust Estates

r Cluster # 03: Movers and Shakers

1.6 WHAT TASKS CAN DATA MINING ACCOMPLISH? 13

TABLE 1.2 The 66 clusters used by the PRIZM segmentation system

07 Money and Brains 08 Executive Suites 09 Big Fish, Small Pond

10 Second City Elite 11 God’s Country 12 Brite Lites, Little City

34 White Picket Fences 35 Boomtown Singles 36 Blue-Chip Blues

40 Close-in Couples 41 Sunset City Blues 42 Red, White and Blues

49 American Classics 50 Kid Country, USA 51 Shotguns and Pickups

r Cluster # 04: Young Digerati

r Cluster # 07: Money and Brains

r Cluster # 16: Bohemian Mix

The description for Cluster # 01: Upper Crust is “The nation’s most exclusiveaddress, Upper Crust is the wealthiest lifestyle in America, a Haven for empty-nestingcouples between the ages of 45 and 64 No segment has a higher concentration ofresidents earning over $100,000 a year and possessing a postgraduate degree Andnone has a more opulent standard of living.”

Examples of clustering tasks in business and research include

r Target marketing of a niche product for a small-cap business which does not

have a large marketing budget,

r For accounting auditing purposes, to segmentize financial behavior into benign

and suspicious categories,

r As a dimension-reduction tool when the data set has hundreds of attributes,

r For gene expression clustering, where very large quantities of genes may exhibit

similar behavior

Clustering is often performed as a preliminary step in a data mining process,with the resulting clusters being used as further inputs into a different technique

downstream, such as neural networks.1We discuss hierarchical and k-means

cluster-ing in Chapter 10 and Kohonen networks in Chapter 11

quanti-form “If antecedent then consequent,” together with a measure of the support and

confidence associated with the rule For example, a particular supermarket may findthat, of the 1000 customers shopping on a Thursday night, 200 bought diapers, and

of those 200 who bought diapers, 50 bought beer Thus, the association rule would be

“If buy diapers, then buy beer,” with a support of 200/1000 = 20% and a confidence

of 50/200 = 25%

Examples of association tasks in business and research include

r Investigating the proportion of subscribers to your company’s cell phone plan

that respond positively to an offer of an service upgrade,

r Examining the proportion of children whose parents read to them who are

themselves good readers,

r Predicting degradation in telecommunications networks,

r Finding out which items in a supermarket are purchased together, and which

items are never purchased together,

r Determining the proportion of cases in which a new drug will exhibit dangerous

side effects

We discuss two algorithms for generating association rules, the a priori rithm, and the generalized rule induction (GRI) algorithm, in Chapter 12

algo-REFERENCES

1 James Manyika, by James Manyika, Michael Chui, Brad Brown, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs,

Charles Roxburgh, Angela Hung Byers, Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and

productivity, McKinsey Global Institute, 2011, www.mckinsey.com, last accessed March 8, 2014.

2 Sasha Issenberg, How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters, MIT

Technology Review, December 19, 2012.

3. Peter Fabris, Advanced Navigation, in CIO Magazine, May 15, 1998 http://www.cio.com/archive/

051598_mining.html.

4 John Naisbitt, Megatrends, 6th edn, Warner Books, 1986.

5. Michael Berry and Gordon Linoff, Data Mining Techniques for Marketing, Sales and Customer

Support, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1997.

6 Michael Berry and Gordon Linoff, Mastering Data Mining, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 2000.

1For the use of clustering in market segmentation, see the forthcoming Data Mining and Predictive

Analytics, by Daniel Larose and Chantal Larose, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2015.

EXERCISES 15

7 Peter Chapman, Julian Clinton, Randy Kerber, Thomas Khabaza, Thomas Reinart, Colin Shearer, and

Rudiger Wirth, CRISP-DM Step-by-Step Data Mining Guide, 2000, www.the-modeling-agency.com/

crisp-dm.pdf, last accessed March 8, 2014.

8 Jen Que Louie, President of Nautilus Systems, Inc (www.nautilus-systems.com), Testimony before the

US House of Representatives SubCommittee on Technology, Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations, and Census, Federal Document Clearing House, Congressional Testimony, March 25, 2003.

EXERCISES

1 Refer to the Bank of America example early in the chapter Which data mining task or tasks

are implied in identifying “the type of marketing approach for a particular customer, based

on customer’s individual profile”? Which tasks are not explicitly relevant?

2 For each of the following, identify the relevant data mining task(s):

a The Boston Celtics would like to approximate how many points their next opponent will

score against them

b A military intelligence officer is interested in learning about the respective proportions

of Sunnis and Shias in a particular strategic region

c A NORAD defense computer must decide immediately whether a blip on the radar is a

flock of geese or an incoming nuclear missile

d A political strategist is seeking the best groups to canvass for donations in a particular

county

e A Homeland Security official would like to determine whether a certain sequence of

financial and residence moves implies a tendency to terrorist acts

f A Wall Street analyst has been asked to find out the expected change in stock price for

a set of companies with similar price/earnings ratios

3 For each of the following meetings, explain which phase in the CRISP-DM process is

represented:

a Managers want to know by next week whether deployment will take place Therefore,

analysts meet to discuss how useful and accurate their model is

b The data mining project manager meets with the data warehousing manager to discuss

how the data will be collected

c The data mining consultant meets with the Vice President for Marketing, who says that

he would like to move forward with customer relationship management

d The data mining project manager meets with the production line supervisor, to discuss

implementation of changes and improvements

e The analysts meet to discuss whether the neural network or decision tree models should

be applied

4 Discuss the need for human direction of data mining Describe the possible consequences

of relying on completely automatic data analysis tools

5 CRISP-DM is not the only standard process for data mining Research an alternative

method-ology (Hint: SEMMA, from the SAS Institute) Discuss the similarities and differences with

2.11 TRANSFORMATIONS TO ACHIEVE NORMALITY 28

2.12 NUMERICAL METHODS FOR IDENTIFYING OUTLIERS 35 2.13 FLAG VARIABLES 36

2.14 TRANSFORMING CATEGORICAL VARIABLES INTO NUMERICAL VARIABLES 37

2.15 BINNING NUMERICAL VARIABLES 38

2.16 RECLASSIFYING CATEGORICAL VARIABLES 39

2.17 ADDING AN INDEX FIELD 39

2.18 REMOVING VARIABLES THAT ARE NOT USEFUL 39

2.19 VARIABLES THAT SHOULD PROBABLY NOT BE REMOVED 40 2.20 REMOVAL OF DUPLICATE RECORDS 41

2.21 A WORD ABOUT ID FIELDS 41

THE R ZONE 42

REFERENCES 48

EXERCISES 48

HANDS-ON ANALYSIS 50

Discovering Knowledge in Data: An Introduction to Data Mining, Second Edition.

By Daniel T Larose and Chantal D Larose.

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Published 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

16

2.2 DATA CLEANING 17

Chapter 1 introduced us to data mining, and the CRISP-DM standard process fordata mining model development In Phase 1 of the data mining process,business understanding or research understanding, businesses and researchers first enun-

ciate project objectives, then translate these objectives into the formulation of a datamining problem definition, and finally prepare a preliminary strategy for achievingthese objectives

Here in this chapter, we examine the next two phases of the CRISP-DM standardprocess,data understanding and data preparation We will show how to evaluate

the quality of the data, clean the raw data, deal with missing data, and perform

transfor-mations on certain variables All of Chapter 3, Exploratory Data Analysis, is devoted

to this very important aspect of thedata understanding phase The heart of any data

mining project is themodeling phase, which we begin examining in Chapter 4.

2.1 WHY DO WE NEED TO PREPROCESS THE DATA?

Much of the raw data contained in databases is unpreprocessed, incomplete, andnoisy For example, the databases may contain

r Fields that are obsolete or redundant,

r Missing values,

r Outliers,

r Data in a form not suitable for the data mining models,

r Values not consistent with policy or common sense.

In order to be useful for data mining purposes, the databases need to undergopreprocessing, in the form ofdata cleaning and data transformation Data mining

often deals with data that have not been looked at for years, so that much of the datacontain field values that have expired, are no longer relevant, or are simply missing

The overriding objective is to minimize GIGO, to minimize the Garbage that gets Into

our model, so that we can minimize the amount of Garbage that our models give Out.Depending on the data set, data preprocessing alone can account for 10–60%

of all the time and effort for the entire data mining process In this chapter, we shallexamine several ways to preprocess the data for further analysis downstream

2.2 DATA CLEANING

To illustrate the need for cleaning up the data, let us take a look at some of the kinds

of errors that could creep into even a tiny data set, such as that in Table 2.1

Let us discuss, attribute by attribute, some of the problems that have found their

way into the data set in Table 2.1 The customer ID variable seems to be fine What about zip?

Let us assume that we are expecting all of the customers in the database to havethe usual five-numeral American zip code Now, Customer 1002 has this unusual (to

American eyes) zip code of J2S7K7 If we were not careful, we might be tempted to

TABLE 2.1 Can you find any problems in this tiny data set?

What about the zip code for Customer 1004? We are unaware of any countries

that have four digit zip codes, such as the 6269 indicated here, so this must be an

error, right? Probably not Zip codes for the New England states begin with the

numeral 0 Unless the zip code field is defined to be character (text) and not numeric,

the software will most likely chop off the leading zero, which is apparently what

happened here The zip code may well be 06269, which refers to Storrs, Connecticut,

home of the University of Connecticut

The next field, gender, contains a missing value for customer 1003 We shall

detail methods for dealing with missing values later in this chapter

The income field has three potentially anomalous values First, Customer 1003

is shown as having an income of $10,000,000 per year While entirely possible,

especially when considering the customer’s zip code (90210, Beverly Hills), this value of income is nevertheless an outlier, an extreme data value Certain statis-

tical and data mining modeling techniques do not function smoothly in the ence of outliers; therefore, we shall examine methods of handling outliers later inthe chapter

pres-Poverty is one thing, but it is rare to find an income that is negative, as ourpoor Customer 1002 has Unlike Customer 1003’s income, Customer 1002’s reportedincome of −$40,000 lies beyond the field bounds for income, and therefore must be

an error It is unclear how this error crept in, with perhaps the most likely explanationbeing that the negative sign is a stray data entry error However, we cannot be sure,and should approach this value cautiously, and attempt to communicate with thedatabase manager most familiar with the database history

So what is wrong with Customer 1005’s income of $99,999? Perhaps nothing;

it may in fact be valid But, if all the other incomes are rounded to the nearest $5000,why the precision with Customer 1005? Often, in legacy databases, certain specifiedvalues are meant to be codes for anomalous entries, such as missing values Perhaps

99999 was coded in an old database to mean missing Again, we cannot be sure and

should again refer to the database administrator

2.3 HANDLING MISSING DATA 19

Finally, are we clear regarding which unit of measure the income variable ismeasured in? Databases often get merged, sometimes without bothering to checkwhether such merges are entirely appropriate for all fields For example, it is quitepossible that customer 1002, with the Canadian zip code, has an income measured inCanadian dollars, not U.S dollars

The age field has a couple of problems Though all the other customers have numeric values for age, Customer 1001’s “age” of C probably reflects an earlier categorization of this man’s age into a bin labeled C The data mining software will

definitely not like this categorical value in an otherwise numeric field, and we willhave to resolve this problem somehow How about Customer 1004’s age of 0? Perhaps

there is a newborn male living in Storrs, Connecticut who has made a transaction

of $1000 More likely, the age of this person is probably missing and was coded as

0 to indicate this or some other anomalous condition (e.g., refused to provide the ageinformation)

Of course, keeping an age field in a database is a minefield in itself, since the

passage of time will quickly make the field values obsolete and misleading It is better

to keep date-type fields (such as birthdate) in a database, since these are constant,

and may be transformed into ages when needed

The marital status field seems fine, right? Maybe not The problem lies in the

meaning behind these symbols We all think we know what these symbols mean, butare sometimes surprised For example, if you are in search of cold water in a restroom

in Montreal, and turn on the faucet marked C, you may be in for a surprise, since the

C stands for chaude, which is French for hot There is also the problem of ambiguity.

In Table 2.1, for example, does the S for Customers 1003 and 1004 stand for single

or separated?

The transaction amount field seems satisfactory, as long as we are confident

that we know what unit of measure is being used, and that all records are transacted

in this unit

2.3 HANDLING MISSING DATA

Missing data are a problem that continues to plague data analysis methods Even

as our analysis methods gain sophistication, we nevertheless continue to encountermissing values in fields, especially in databases with a large number of fields Theabsence of information is rarely beneficial All things being equal, more information

is almost always better Therefore, we should think carefully about how we handlethe thorny issue of missing data

To help us tackle this problem, we will introduce ourselves to a new data

set, the cars data set, originally compiled by Barry Becker and Ronny Kohavi

of Silicon Graphics, and available for download at the book series websitewww.dataminingconsultant.com The data set consists of information about 261automobiles manufactured in the 1970s and 1980s, including gas mileage, number

of cylinders, cubic inches, horsepower, and so on

Suppose, however, that some of the field values were missing for certain records.Figure 2.1 provides a peek at the first 10 records in the data set, with two of the fieldvalues missing

Figure 2.1 Some of our field values are missing.

A common method of “handling” missing values is simply to omit the records

or fields with missing values from the analysis However, this may be dangerous,since the pattern of missing values may in fact be systematic, and simply deletingthe records with missing values would lead to a biased subset of the data Further,

it seems like a waste to omit the information in all the other fields, just because one

field value is missing In fact, Schmueli, et al [1] state that if only 5% of data values

are missing from a data set of 30 variables, and the missing values are spread evenlythroughout the data, almost 80% of the records would have at least one missing value.Therefore, data analysts have turned to methods that would replace the missing valuewith a value substituted according to various criteria

Some common criteria for choosing replacement values for missing data are asfollows:

1 Replace the missing value with some constant, specified by the analyst.

mode (for categorical variables)

3 Replace the missing values with a value generated at random from the observed

distribution of the variable

4 Replace the missing values with imputed values based on the other

character-istics of the record

Let us examine each of the first three methods, none of which is entirelysatisfactory, as we shall see Figure 2.2 shows the result of replacing the missing

values with the constant 0 for the numerical variable cubicinches and the label

missing for the categorical variable brand.

Figure 2.3 illustrates how the missing values may be replaced with the respectivefield means and modes

Figure 2.2 Replacing missing field values with user-defined constants

1See the Appendix for the definition of mean and mode.