conser-Los Angeles Times [See Orange County, A10] WASHINGTON — Withthe final polls finished, thelast ads cut and well over 35million people already hav-ing voted, political opera-tives i
Trang 1$2.75 DESIGNATED AREAS HIGHER © 2018 WSCE MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2018 latimes.com
In La Palma Park Stadium in
Anaheim, a month before the Bay of
Pigs invasion, 7,500 students and
parents skipped school or work and
gathered to learn about communist
plans to take over the United
States
“Right now, we have a 50-50
chance of defeating the communist
threat,” Herbert Philbrick, a former
FBI agent, told the crowd on March
8, 1961 “Each day our chances grow
less.”
Walter Knott, of berry-farm
fame, sponsored the five-day
“Christian Anti-Communist
School” to help Orange County see
the world that he saw, one where big
JARED MATHIS, left, and Scott T Barnes stand off the trail in the Aliso and Wood Canyons Wilderness in Laguna Beach, looking
over the 22,000 acres of land that their great-grandparents Lewis and Nellie Gail Moulton purchased in the 1890s
Mark Boster For The Times
Where conservatism evolves
ACTORJohn Wayne, shown in 1978 at the airport that would
be named in his honor, came to embody a new brand of vatism for America that was firmly rooted in Orange County
conser-Los Angeles Times
[See Orange County, A10]
WASHINGTON — Withthe final polls finished, thelast ads cut and well over 35million people already hav-ing voted, political opera-tives in both parties expectDemocrats to win back con-trol of the House on Tuesdayand make significant gains
in state capitals even as publicans keep narrow con-trol of the Senate
Re-But as PresidentTrump’s victory in 2016showed, upsets do happen.And in this election, severalfactors exist that couldchange the expected results
Demo-What will turnout looklike among Latinos, who arekey to Democratic hopes towin Senate seats in Arizona,Nevada and several Houseseats in California and else-where in the Southwest?
“The question is, have weengaged the Latino commu-nity enough to generateturnout?” Democratic poll-ster Mark Mellman said “It’sgoing to vary from place toplace.”
And in an election wherepartisans on both sidesseem fired up to vote — wit-ness the early voting thathas broken records in manystates — how will those withweaker partisan ties divide?About 4 in 10 partisans oneach side said they wereclosely following the electioncampaign, according to thefinal USC Dornsife/Los An-geles Times poll
That’s a big shift from
2010, when the Republicanswon the House majority thatthey’ve held for the last eightyears In the run-up to thatelection, a lot more Republi-cans than Democrats took
an interest in the campaign,and that correctly forecast apoor Democratic turnout.Four years before that, it wasRepublicans who were de-moralized and Democratswho took the most interest,leading to a Democraticwave
Earlier this year, can strategists worried thatDemocrats once again hadthe sort of enthusiasm edgethey enjoyed in 2006 But inthe closing weeks of thiscampaign, that concern hasdiminished
Republi-“It’s clear that, in mostplaces, Republicans have
WHICH VOTERS WILL
SHOW?
Poll still indicates a Democratic edge for House, but it’s hard to tell which factions will
be most motivated.
By David L auter
2018 MIDTERM ELE CTION
[See Voters, A7]
BEIJING — The pandacub snuffles, stretches out atiny paw and snuggles withhis mother, Cao Cao Shestirs, sniffs him gently andgives him a lick as they rest
in her maternity enclosure
at the Hetaoping WildernessTraining Base in the mist-
wreathed mountains ofsouthwestern China
The cub, 2 months oldand too small to be named, isthe size of a house cat Heand his sister are rare genet-
ic treasures, the first twin ant panda cubs born to awild male panda and a fe-male sent back into the wild
gi-to mate
In the last two years, Cao
Cao, a mother of nine, hasgiven birth to the only threeprogeny of an ambitiousreturn-to-nature programthat Chinese scientists hopewill save the species from ex-tinction Cao Cao, 16, wasborn in the wilds herself be-fore being taken into captiv-ity in Sichuan when she wasabout 13 months old
CAO CAO, who was raised in captivity, gave birth to the first twin giant pandacubs born to a wild male panda and a female sent back into the wild to mate
China Conservation and Research Center for the Giant Panda
A black-and-white effort
China’s make-or-break program sends pandas back into the wild in a bid to prevent their extinction
By Robyn Dixon
[See China, A4]
HENRY COUNTY, Ga —
When Vikki Consiglio exits
her subdivision next to the
Eagle’s Landing Country
Club, leaving behind a
neigh-borhood of neatly
mani-cured lawns, circular
drive-ways and golf fairdrive-ways, she
cannot help feeling a wave of
disappointment
“I see the Waffle Houses
and the McDonald’s, the
Walmart and the dollar
stores,” she said “I’m
think-ing, ‘Is this all I can have?’
There’s no fresh
farm-to-ta-ble, no parks, no
entertain-ment.”
In what she says is a bid
to attract more upscale
amenities to this rapidly
de-veloping suburb about 20
miles southeast of
down-town Atlanta, Consiglio has
come up with a controversial
plan: to form a new city,
Eagle’s Landing, by
combin-ing unincorporated pockets
of the county with the most
affluent parts of the existing
city of Stockbridge
The proposal to form acity, up for a vote on Tues-day, has roiled HenryCounty, raising tense debateabout racial and economicdisparity and voting rights
Once a sleepy rural, inantly white region, thecounty has seen an influx ofminorities and a solidifica-tion of black political power
predom-as its population hpredom-as ploded in recent years In
ex-1980, whites made up morethan 80% of Henry County’spopulation, but now theyhave dwindled to less than50%
While the thousands wholive within the proposed cityboundaries of Eagle’s Land-ing will vote in Tuesday’s ref-erendum, those who would
be left behind, in bridge, will not get to vote, as
Stock-a result of legislStock-ation Stock-proved by the Republican-dominated state Legisla-ture
ap-Stockbridge officialscomplain the city, which ispredominantly black andhas a population of about29,000, would have no say inlosing its most bustling com-mercial corridor and about athird of its residents
Affluent residents
in Georgia fight
to split from city
Secession proposal
stirs debate over race,
class and voting rights.
By Jenny Jarvie
[See City, A14]
SACRAMENTO — From all ners of the California political world
cor-— Democrats and Republicans,campaign consultants and re-searchers — a hearty thanks may
be in order to President Trump
Just a day away from a decisive tion, the polarizing chief executivehas provided a simple shorthandfor measuring GOP relevance in theGolden State
elec-To calculate the size of the publican base, just look at the president’s job approval number
Re-Find that loyal Trump supporter,goes the logic, and you’re looking
ANALYSIS
For an idea of the state’s GOP base, look at Trump’s job approval number
By John Myers
[See GOP base, A9]
Saints hand Rams their first defeat
The Rams went intoNew Orleans with an8-0 record They’re nolonger perfect after a45-35 loss SPORTS, D1Sense of urgency
at Visalia temple
Pittsburgh shootinghas tiny CongregationB’Nai David thinkingmore about security
CALIFORNIA, B1
Weather
Coastal clouds,then sunshine
Trang 2A wave of criminal justice reform on state-level ballots Voters will consider ex-felon voting rights, split jury verdicts and more
By Jaweed Kaleem
At recent campaignrallies, President Trumphas said that “law and or-der” is a key issue in Tues-day’s midterm election,declaring to his ferventsupporters that his admin-istration is tough on crime
But Trump’s rhetoricdoesn’t necessarily matchthe type of referendumquestions that will be onballots In states across theU.S., major criminal justicereform will be up for votes,with several that polls show have a high chance
of passing
The proposals includemeasures that would re-store voting rights of ex-felons in Florida, eliminatenon-unanimous criminaljuries in Louisiana andmake it easier to prosecutepolice shootings in Wash-ington state Many races,including those for governor
in Florida and Georgia, havealso pitted pro- and anti-criminal-justice-reformcandidates against eachother
“There is really a nance between the rhetoric
disso-on the federal level and what
is actually happening in thestates,” said American CivilLiberties Union deputynational political directorUdi Ofer “What we areseeing is a buildup frommany years of criminaljustice reform making abreakthrough locally.”
Here are a few of themajor criminal justice mea-sures due to be decided
Tuesday, mainly throughballot initiatives
Florida
Florida is one of threestates where nearly all peo-ple convicted of felonies losethe right to vote even afterthey have completed parole
or probation In most otherstates, those convicted offelonies have voting rightsrestored after leaving prison
or completing periods ofparole and probation Flori-da’s Amendment 4, whichneeds 60% of votes to pass,would give voting rights to
as many as 1.5 million felons in the state The lawwould not apply to peopleconvicted of murder or sexcrimes Polls indicate it willpass
ex-Louisiana
In federal courts and 48states, juries in felony casesmust reach unanimousverdicts Not in Louisiana,where criminal juries cancome to non-unanimousdecisions The state enactedthe law in 1880 after thepassage of the 14th Amend-ment, which gave freedslaves the right to vote andserve on juries At thestate’s 1898 constitutionalconvention, lawmakerswrote the rule into the stateconstitution to “perpetuatethe supremacy of the Anglo-Saxon race in Louisiana.”
If Amendment 2 passes,
it will leave Oregon as theonly state in the countrythat allows split juries incriminal trials The amend-ment has drawn wide sup-port from Democrats and
Republicans
Washington
Washington is one of thehardest states in which toprosecute police officers indeadly shootings Currentlaw says police cannot befound liable for using deadlyforce if they did it “withoutmalice and with a good faithbelief that deadly force isjustifiable.”
If Initiative 940 passesTuesday, the 1986 law’smalice standard would beremoved It would be re-placed with a test that askswhether a “reasonable”
officer would use deadlyforce and whether the offi-cer “in good faith believedthat the use of deadly forcewas warranted.” The poten-tial new law would mandatethat shootings and otherdeadly uses of force gounder independent investi-gation by people outside thepolice departments in ques-tion It would also makepolice receive training inde-escalation and mentalhealth issues in regard tocrime suspects
Colorado
Similar to the U.S stitution, the ColoradoConstitution bans slaveryand involuntary servitude
Con-“except as a punishment forcrime.” Amendment Awould take away that exception
Ohio
Up for vote is Issue 1,which would make all drugpossession a misdemeanorinstead of a felony Support-
ers say it would ize addiction and allow thestate to use its budget totreat addicts instead ofsending them to prison.Opponents say it’s too lax
decriminal-on drugs They say thepossibility of a felony convic-tion is a good deterrent fordrug use
Marsy’s Law
This victims’ rightsproposal will be voted on inNevada, Oklahoma, Florida,Kentucky, Georgia andNorth Carolina The lawwould expand the definition
of a victim to include “anyspouse, parent, grandpar-ent, child, sibling, grand-child or guardian” of a per-son targeted by a crime.Proponents say it wouldimprove the treatment ofvictims’ families by allowingthem to receive fuller infor-mation on criminal proceed-ings Opponents say itwould take away resourcesfrom criminal investigationsand victims more directlyaffected by crimes
Marijuana
The national trend ofmarijuana legalizationcould continue Tuesday asvoters in Michigan, NorthDakota, Utah and Missouridecide on marijuana-re-lated measures In Michiganand North Dakota, recre-ational legalization is on theballot Utah and Missourivoters will decide on legal-ization for medical uses.jaweed.kaleem
@latimes.comTwitter: @jaweedkaleem
morning.
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Members of the Central American caravan moving through Mexico leave Isla early Sunday on the next leg
of their trip Thousands of bone-tired travelers set their sights on Mexico City after undertaking a cult journey through a part of Mexico that has been particularly treacherous for migrants seeking to get to the United States An estimated 4,000 were in the gulf state of Veracruz, where hundreds of migrants have disappeared in recent years, falling prey to kidnappers The day’s 124-mile trek was one of the longest yet,
diffi-as the exhausted migrants tried to make progress walking and hitching rides toward the U.S border still hundreds of miles away So far, townspeople along the route have handed out food, water and fresh cloth- ing The migrants aim to regroup in the capital, seeking medical care and rest while they await stragglers
1,000 WORDS: ISLA, Mexico
Spencer Platt Getty Images
GRUELING JOURNEY
Trang 3L A T I M E S C O M M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 A3
THE WORLD
TEHRAN — Iranians in
dozens of cities marked the
39th anniversary of the
take-over of the U.S Embassy in
Tehran with
government-or-ganized rallies Sunday that
doubled as a show of
defi-ance against the renewal of
American sanctions
Thousands of civil
serv-ants, high school students,
members of the security
forces and others gathered
near the embassy site in
cen-tral Tehran chanting
slo-gans against the United
States, Saudi Arabia and
Is-rael
The heavily
choreo-graphed annual
demon-strations took on an added
edge with the Trump
admin-istration reintroducing U.S
sanctions starting Monday
against Iran’s oil, banking
and shipbuilding industries
The oil sanctions in
par-ticular are expected to
sig-nificantly reduce Iran’s
reve-nue The U.S has granted
exemptions for eight
coun-tries and territories to
con-tinue importing Iranian
crude but in reduced
quan-tities
Some demonstrators
carried placards that read,
“We welcome sanctions,”
and said they would be less
punishing than those the
Obama administration had
imposed in concert with
in-ternational allies before the
2015 agreement on Iran’s clear program
nu-“It is more a gical war and bluff wagedagainst the Iranian people,”
psycholo-said Mohammad Nouri, a year-old cleric
26-“It can even be a blessing
in disguise, if we are cleverenough to use the opportu-nity to enhance domestic in-dustries and wean our econ-omy off of petrodollars.”
Others said Iran’s mic problems were due more
econo-to domestic corruption andmismanagement than uni-lateral U.S measures
President Trump “is ber-rattling and wants tomaximize pressure on thepeople so there will be a gapbetween the people and our
sa-rulers No way — it is sible,” said Saeed Biagi, 40
impos-“We have to brace for baddays and get rid of our in-competent managers,” Bi-agi said “Unfortunately,people from the poorerwalks of life will suffer more
than ever [because of tions], but we have no optionbut to resist and rely on our-selves.”
sanc-The demonstrationsmark the day that Iranianstudents raided the U.S.Embassy and held 52 Ameri-cans hostage for 444 days inretaliation for U.S support
of the deposed monarch,Mohammed Reza ShahPahlavi
Speaking from a form, the commander of theRevolutionary Guard, theparamilitary force close toSupreme Leader AyatollahAli Khamenei, said the U.S.sanctions were part of “40years of failed plots of Ameri-can administrations.”
plat-“God willing, these newsanctions, which are part ofthe soft war against the Ira-nian nation, will fail too,”said the commander, Maj.Gen Mohammad Ali Jafari.Iran’s leaders accuse theTrump administration ofreneging on the nuclear dealeven after United Nations in-spectors said Tehran wascomplying with its obliga-tions to curb uranium en-richment in exchange for re-lief from international sanc-tions
The Trump tion has said it wants to pun-ish Iran for its other activ-ities in the Middle East, in-cluding sending fighters tosupport Syrian PresidentBashar Assad and Houthirebels battling Saudi forces
administra-in Yemen
The sanctions have sentthe Iranian currency plum-meting to an all-time lowagainst the dollar andcaused shortages of goods,including diapers and medi-cines
But it is unclear they willaccomplish the administra-tion’s stated goal of driving awedge between the Iranianpeople and their rulers
“We are suffering fromthe painful sanctions, andpossibly we will suffer more but honestly speaking, wewill tolerate and support ourIslamic Revolution,” said 40-year-old Masoumeh Kho-daverdi
Her 7-year-old son held aflag bearing the revolution’sfavorite slogan: “Death toAmerica.”
Watching from a walk, a young man whoworks as a motorcycle couri-
side-er refused to join the crowdand criticized Iran’s estab-lishment for failing to tackleits economic challenges
“All the speakers on theplatform are jerks, and whatthey say is a joke,” said theman, who declined to givehis name because he did notwant to be identified whilecriticizing the theocracy “Ithink these sanctions will bemore painful and these poli-ticians can’t do anything toreduce our pain.”
shashank.bengali
@latimes.comTwitter: @SBengaliSpecial correspondentMostaghim reported fromTehran and Times staffwriter Bengali fromMumbai, India
Iranians rally against U.S sanctions
and Ramin Mostaghim
IRANIANSdemonstrate outside the former U.S Embassy in Tehran on the eve of sanctions against their oil and other key industries
Abedin Taherkenareh EPA/Shutterstock
UZHHOROD, Ukraine
— In early October, Andriy
Minchuk found himself
blacklisted, right alongside
Ukraine’s enemies
His personal information
was leaked online by
Peace-maker, a publication that
boasts ties to the Ukrainian
security services It posts
personal information about
the “Kremlin’s agents,”
in-cluding separatists in
south-eastern Ukraine and
turn-coat officials and
serv-icemen in Russia-annexed
Crimea
This was no small matter
A pro-Russia publicist and a
former lawmaker were shot
dead in April 2015, days after
Peacemaker disclosed their
addresses Other
black-listed people have faced
threats, harassment and
travel bans
But Minchuk, who lives in
Transcarpathia, an
impov-erished western region of
Ukraine, insists that he did
nothing to warrant inclusion
on the list His
transgres-sion, it appears, was being
one of about 100,000 ethnic
Hungarians in Ukraine who
hold Hungarian passports
Peacemaker published
his personal information,
in-cluding the number on his
Hungarian passport, in a list
of about 500 public servants
and state employees who
had obtained Hungarian
citizenship — making them
“separatists” and “traitors.”
But Minchuk denied ever
holding a government job,
let alone fomenting
separat-ist views He said the leak
could harm him, his wife and
their 3-year-old son
“I’m an average guy, I
work hard, I pay my taxes,”
the 33-year-old IT expert
said in an interview “This is
very bad for me and my
fam-ily.”
Although Ukraine
pro-hibits dual citizenship, the
only punishment is a
minus-cule fine Yet, the
blacklist-ing threw Minchuk into a
po-litical maelstrom that
im-perils Ukraine’s pro-Western
course, tests its
commit-ment to multiculturalism
and plays into the hands of
its archenemy, Russian
President Vladimir Putin
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s
far-right and Euroskepticleader who said that Putin
“has made his nation greatagain,” is Moscow’s staunch-est ally in the EuropeanUnion
Orban also championsthe “integration” of the 2 mil-lion-plus Hungarian dias-pora that remained in Slo-vakia, Romania, Serbia andUkraine after a 1920, post-World War I treaty deprivedHungary of two-thirds of itsterritory
Since 2011, Orban’s ernment has issued morethan a million passports todiaspora Hungarians They,
gov-in turn, were allowed to vote
in Hungary’s elections —and most supported Or-ban’s Fidesz party
Orban has long urgedUkraine to give autonomy toTranscarpathian Hungari-ans There are about 150,000ethnic Hungarians in Tran-scarpathia, or about one-eighth of the region’s popu-lation
“They must be granteddual citizenship, must enjoy
all of the community rightsand must be granted the op-portunity for autonomy,” hesaid in 2014, days before pro-Russia separatists in south-eastern Ukraine agreed tosecede and unleashed a warthat killed thousands
Weeks earlier, Russiaannexed Crimea, which hadbeen part of Ukraine, afterviolent protests toppled Ki-ev’s pro-Russia PresidentViktor Yanukovich Citingoppression of ethnic Rus-sians, Moscow demandedthat Ukraine become a de-centralized, federal statewith broader rights for mi-norities
Orban’s demands echoedPutin’s — perhaps not sur-prising, since their interests
in Ukraine largely coincided
“The steps of the garian government seem to
Hun-be promoting Russia’s eign policy interests morethan those of Hungary,” Pe-ter Kreko, director of the Po-litical Capital Institute, aBudapest think tank, said in
for-an interview “These stepsdon’t help ethnic Hungari-ans in Transcarpathia, theyisolate Hungary within [Eu-rope] and help Russia ham-per Ukraine’s Euro-Atlanticintegration.”
Meanwhile, under its newpresident, Petro Poroshen-
ko, Ukraine passed a lawthat limits education in mi-nority languages Intended
to curb the use of Russian,the law affected other mi-norities — Hungarians, Ro-manians, Poles and Ruthe-nians — who see education
in native languages as a
pil-lar of preserving their tity
iden-Orban’s governmentfunds Hungarian-languageschools in Transcarpathia,and it threatened to blockUkraine’s push to join theEuropean Union and NATO
if Ukraine did not withdrawthe legislation
The EU and North lantic Treaty Organizationreprimanded Kiev for violat-ing minority rights, but 11NATO member states con-cluded that Orban’s ultima-tum puts “the strategic in-terests of the alliance injeopardy.”
At-In response, Ukrainiannationalists marched withtorches to the HungarianConsulate in Berehove, aborder town known asUkraine’s Little Hungary AHungarian cultural centerwas firebombed twice, andthe faces of its members ap-peared on billboards signed,
“Let’s stop separatists.”
Ukraine said the bomberswere Polish far-right nation-alists with ties to Russia
Poroshenko complained,without providing evidence,that the region “has become
an object of attack of sian intelligence services tocomplicate our nation’s rela-tions with Western part-ners.”
Rus-One of his ministers plored the weakness ofPoroshenko’s policies inTranscarpathia and com-pared the region to annexedCrimea and the separatistDonbas region, which isunder the control of pro-Russia rebels
de-“Transcarpathia has notbeen lost yet, but I abso-lutely agree that we’re losingterritories where the centralgovernment has no policies,”
said Heorhiy Tuka, who isthe Ukrainian minister forterritories that includeCrimea and Donbas, in tele-vised remarks
Tuka helped found thePeacemaker website in 2014
In September, a videosurfaced online showing eth-nic Hungarians receivingpassports at the Berehoveconsulate as diplomats offerthem Champagne and urgethem to keep their new citi-zenship secret from Ukrain-ian authorities
Prosecutors said theywould investigate the distri-bution of passports as “hightreason,” and Kiev pledged
to build a military base inTranscarpathia in an appar-ent step to counter a hypo-thetical military threat fromHungary
Ukraine’s main securityagency, SBU, began investi-gating a Budapest-fundedcharity that spent tens ofmillions in Transcarpathia
on infrastructure projectssuch as construction ofschools, roads and hospitalsfor “separatism.”
Hungarian Foreign ister Peter Szijjarto accusedUkraine of starting a “state-assisted hate campaign,”
Min-and in early October, gary blocked the annualmeeting of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Commission,which works toward includ-ing Kiev in the bloc It wasthe second time Hungaryhad done so
Hun-Then the Peacemakerblacklist brought the con-flict to a boil
For many carpathian Hungarians,their burgundy-red pass-ports are not political state-ments but open tickets towork and study in the EU
Trans-“There is no future inUkraine,” said Olga Nemesz,whose husband works inGermany while she raisestheir two children in Bere-hove “It’s really hard to sur-vive here.”
After the blacklisting,several public officials andstate employees quit theirjobs Minchuk’s family hasnot been affected, but has asimple solution if things gowrong
“If there is a danger for
my family, we will go to gary,” he said
Hun-Mirovalev is a specialcorrespondent
In Ukraine, one minority walks fine line
ETHNIC Hungarians at church in Uzhhorod, Ukraine Hungary’s leader hascalled for autonomy for ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region
Mansur Mirovalev For The Times
Ethnic Hungarians
with dual citizenship
risk being blacklisted
as separatists.
By Mansur Mirovalev
‘The steps of the Hungarian government seem
to be promoting Russia’s foreign policy interests.’
— Peter Kreko,
director of the Political CapitalInstitute in Budapest
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One of her male cubs, Tao
Tao, was released in 2012 and
has since been recaptured
twice for health checks and
so he could be fitted with a
new tracking collar
Re-searchers believe Tao Tao
may have sired a cub, but
they will have to wait until
the cub is an independent
adult to do DNA testing
Wild pandas, once found
in 17 provinces, now survive
in just three Their habitat is
fragmented, with 73% in
groups so small there is a
strong chance they will not
survive, according to a 2017
report from Beijing Forestry
University
Back in the 1970s, the
overall panda population
dipped to about 1,000 In
re-sponse, the Chinese
govern-ment spent tens of millions
of dollars to establish
train-ing centers, and forest
re-serves, helping the numbers
recover to roughly 2,200 Of
those, roughly 25% reside in
the scientific centers, zoos
or other such facilities
The roly-poly celebrities
are replete with political and
cultural significance, and
economic value as a tourism
drawing card So to ensure
their long-term survival,
China has initiated a
make-or-break experiment
send-ing captive pandas into the
wild permanently to boost
fragile populations
scat-tered in six isolated
moun-tainous regions
Equally vital is a plan for
a 5-million-acre
conserva-tion park — twice the size of
Yellowstone National Park
— that is to include 67
cur-rent reserves and be nanced by the Bank of China
fi-at a cost of $1.1 billion searchers hope the park, duefor completion by 2023, willensure the successful re-lease of dozens of captive-bred pandas to reestablishwild populations in areasthat have not seen them fordecades
Re-The Hetaoping base,where Cao Cao usually re-sides, has released four cap-tive-bred females since 2016
in hopes they would matewith wild males Cao Cao isthe only one with a con-firmed pregnancy
At Hetaoping, cubs areprepared for release largelywithout human contact
They are raised by theirmothers in large bushy en-closures until independent,then moved together tolarger isolated compounds
Their only interaction withhumans is with the keeperswho deliver bamboo daily,dressed in panda suits liber-ally soaked in panda urine tocover the human smell Any-one visiting the center mustdon the urine-soaked suits
Training to survive in thewild is left to the mothers
The base is silent apartfrom the stirring of wind,with not a whisper of traffic
Thirty observation camerastransmit images to 16screens in the base, watchedaround the clock by pandakeepers
A second center —Chengdu Research Base ofGiant Panda Breeding in theSichuan capital, Chengdu —has taken the opposite ap-proach
At Chengdu, operated incollaboration with Virginia-based Global CauseFoundation, humans trainthe bears to eat, climb treesand find water, making iteasier to intervene whenthey are injured or sick Thebase is a major tourist at-traction, with up to 100,000visitors daily and thousandsfiling past the panda nurs-ery, furiously snapping pho-tos while guards shout atthem to move along
The problem is thatwhatever the approach, therelease of pandas can provephysically dangerous (forthe pandas) and politicallydelicate (for the humans),since the public reacts withoutrage to any sort of pandasuffering or fatalities
Of 11 pandas thus far leased permanently by thetwo centers, three have diedand a fourth, Qian Qian(pronounced Chen Chen),got sick and would have per-ished had she not been res-cued, her story the focus of arecent IMAX movie, “Pan-das.”
re-“In some places the wildpopulation is less than 30, insome less than 20,” saidZhang Hemin, deputy direc-tor of the China Conserva-tion and Research Centerfor the Giant Panda, whichruns the Hetaoping base, aswell as another facility in Du-jiangyan “If we don’t helpthem, they’ll be extinctwithin the next 30 to 50years That’s why we aretraining the captive-bredpandas for release.”
But for Zhang, the long mission has at timesproved heartbreaking Herecalls desperate experi-ments — based on guess-work — back in the 1990s,when the survival rate ofcaptive-born cubs was only33% In those days, cubs fre-quently died of malnutrition
life-as researchers tried milkfrom cows, goats and evenhumans, before determiningthat panda milk alone keepspanda cubs alive
Now, virtually all bred cubs at Hetaoping sur-vive to adulthood, even thetwins, which mother pandas
captive-do not support on their own
Cao Cao’s keepers mustswitch her cubs every two
days to ensure both getequal amounts of maternalcare and milk Nurserystaffers feed the switchedcub panda milk, and swab itwith cotton wool dipped inwarm water to providewarmth and contact
When they are 2 years old,cubs are deemed ready forrelease But the life of wildpandas is extremely diffi-cult Sensitive and solitarycreatures, they reside inrough mountainous terrain,spending much of their timechomping 20 to 40 pounds offibrous bamboo daily in or-der to survive They don’t hi-bernate because bamboodoesn’t allow them to gainenough fat
Captive-bred male das also face challenges inthe wild from aggressive, ter-ritorial males, not to men-tion other species Femalesare less likely to face issueswith wild pandas, but stress,
pan-as well pan-as bites from feraldogs and leopards pose amortal threat
Zhang, known in China
as the Father of Pandas,says one of his worst mo-ments came when the firstcaptive-bred panda re-leased after years of re-search and training died just
a year later That panda, amale named Xiang Xiang,was attacked by other ani-mals and either fell to hisdeath from a cliff or a tree,perhaps cornered or fleeing
Zhang says he was tated because the bear’straining evidently left it ill-equipped for life in the wild
devas-At the time, Zhang said, searchers were basicallymaking things up as theywent along
re-“We used our human
ide-as on how to survive in thewild,” he said “So he died.”
Hetaoping panda keeper
He Shengshan agrees
“We trained the pandawith humans directly in-volved step-by-step,” said
He “We trained him how toclimb trees and find waterand food We thought XiangXiang had mastered every-thing he needed to live in thewild, but obviously we werewrong.”
From then on, Hetaopingresearchers have sought toavoid human training andcontact
The panda release ect resumed four years later,and it took an additional twoyears of training for Tao Tao(Cao Cao’s cub) to be pre-pared A top CommunistParty official opened thecub’s cage and he wandered
proj-up a track, clambered intothe forest and disappeared
The issue of whether he isnow a father will be deter-mined when the possible off-spring is an adult and DNA
in stool samples can betested
Training by humansdidn’t help He Sheng, a malefrom the Chengdu base re-leased about the same time
He died of infection a fewmonths later after he was at-tacked — possibly by feraldogs
Zhang Zhihe, director ofthe Chengdu center, shud-ders visibly when askedabout the stories and names
of Chengdu pandas beingtrained for release After HeSheng died, critics accusedthe center on social media of
“murdering” pandas, Zhangrecalls
“Pandas are so famous,politically, economically andculturally,” he said “Thepublic maybe will not under-stand the importance or thedifficulty Maybe they willthink it’s very easy They willnot allow any failure.”When Cao Cao was re-leased temporarily to breedwith a wild male, a team ofpanda trainers and keepersfollowed her closely, check-ing for signs of injury orhunger
“We know Cao Cao verywell so we know when she’s
in heat It takes a week fore a wild panda ap-proaches, so we leave her to
be-do her thing,” He said Theymonitored the matingthrough recordings and shewas returned to the base
“She has a really mild,easygoing nature and it’svery easy for us to look afterher When we wanted tobuild a bond, her trustingpersonality really helped,”said He
He calls Cao Cao a “heromother,” having given birth
to three sets of twins andthree others
Three young pandasfrom multiple mothers arenow being prepared for re-lease from Hetaoping.The reintroduction plancannot be considered a suc-cess until pandas not onlysurvive, but also reproduceand raise wild cubs that sur-vive and reproduce
“That is the biggest lenge for us,” said Zhang, ofthe Chengdu base “Wespent almost 50 years to suc-cessfully breed pandas incaptivity Maybe it will takeanother 50 years to reintro-duce captive pandas into thewild.”
chal-robyn.dixon@latimes.comTwitter:
@RobynDixon_LATGaochao Zhang in TheTimes’ Beijing bureaucontributed to this report
An endeavor
to save pandas
from extinction
AT HETAOPINGbase in China, keepers wear panda suits soaked in panda urine to mask the human smell
Wang Xiwei Imaginechina
KEEPERS switch a pair of twin cubs every two days
so both get equal care and milk from their mother
China Conservation and Research Center for the Giant Panda
[China, from A1]
Lexus LC500 review: In
the Nov 3 Business section,
an information box
accom-panying a review of the
Lexus LC500 listed the
vehi-cle as a two-passenger car
The coupe seats four, as
stated in the review
Volleyball championship:
In the Nov 4 Sports section,
an article about high school
volleyball said Birmingham
defeated Maywood in the
Division III final
Birming-ham defeated Maywood
CES in the championship; it
defeated Maywood in the
semifinals
If you believe that we havemade an error, or you havequestions about The Times’ journalisticstandards and practices,you may contact thereaders’ representative byemail at readers.
representative@latimes com, by phone at (877)
554-4000 or by mail at 2300
E Imperial Highway, ElSegundo, CA 90245 Thereaders’ representativeoffice is online at
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THE NATION
FORT YATES, N.D — It
was less than a decade ago
when street signs with
names such as Buffalo
Ave-nue began sprouting in
res-ervation communities
across North Dakota like
Fort Yates, where Terry
Yel-low Fat lives
Yellow Fat, a
great-grandfather who has raised
his family on the trust lands
of the Standing Rock Sioux
Tribe, never had a reason to
identify his
government-is-sued home by what he
con-sidered colonized
stand-ards, a distinction spelled
out with numeric addresses
When his mail arrives, it’s
delivered to a post office box
about a mile down the road,
a circumstance typical of
reservation life
Now, with election day
nearing, that’s become
prob-lematic for many
reserva-tion-based Native American
voters in North Dakota
Under a law the Supreme
Court allowed to take effect
last month, voters here
can-not vote without a
residen-tial address A post office
box — once good enough to
secure a ballot in this state —
just won’t cut it anymore
Election officials and
tribal governments are
scrambling to figure out a
workaround for a voter ID
law that critics say is
untested and unplanned
One last-minute solution
in-volves so-called 911
coordina-tors who have been quickly
assigning addresses to
would-be voters based
sim-ply on a physical description
of where they live
But tribal members saidthat fix has been uneven atbest and that election offi-cials fail to appreciate theday-to-day realities of life on
a reservation, where peopledon’t need addresses to findneighbors and those with-out cars see no need to gothrough the bureaucratichassle of getting a driver’s li-cense
On Thursday, a NorthDakota federal judge denied
a challenge of the voter IDlaw by the Spirit Lake Na-tion and six individuals, in-cluding Yellow Fat Thejudge said that, although thesuit raised serious questionsabout the law, it would cre-ate only greater confusion togrant an injunction thisclose to the election
The lawsuit argued thatmany Native Americans liv-ing on reservation lands donot have addresses or wereassigned invalid addresses,while some streets have
been given multiple namesand sometimes multiple ZIPCodes
“This problem threatenshundreds if not thousandsmore on election day,” thesuit said
The litigation arguedthat the voter ID law, intro-duced by Republican legis-lators in the name of pre-venting voter fraud, is actu-ally aimed at disenfranchis-ing Native American voters
It is among a handful ofcases unfolding in the U.S —from a rigid voter ID law inGeorgia to a tough-to-reachpolling station in Kansas —
in which marginalized munities claim their votesare at risk
com-North Dakota Secretary
of State Alvin Jaeger deniesthat the law was intended todeprive any person of theright to vote
Even before the law wasupheld by federal courts,Jaeger said, he sent a memo
to tribal leaders directingvoters to contact the 911 co-ordinators in each of NorthDakota’s 53 counties to ob-tain an assigned residentialstreet address He said itwould be a quick and easyprocess
However, it has been thing but easy for somewould-be voters
any-For Yellow Fat, the ess has been, in a word, con-fusing Less than a week be-fore election day, he was is-sued not one, but two differ-ent addresses The first onecame from the StandingRock Sioux Tribe The sec-ond from the state Neither,however, reflects where heactually lives
proc-“What have they done tous?” said Yellow Fat “Itmakes me not even want tovote.”
The voter measure wasfirst introduced after Demo-cratic Sen HeidiHeitkamp’s 2012 victory in a
tight race determined byroughly 3,000 votes Manyballots for Heitkamp werecast by Native Americans
When the voter ID law tookeffect in 2013, critics saw it as
an attempt to suppress theNative American vote andfiled a lawsuit, which ulti-mately was rejected in thecourts
The North Dakota lature was debating the is-sue again in early 2017 whenPresident Trump was pre-paring to sign an executiveorder to resume construc-tion of the Dakota Accesspipeline, the controversialoil project that tribal mem-bers and others had pro-tested
Legis-According to committeeminutes, legislators raisedquestions at the time aboutsuspected voter fraud in the
2016 general election bythose living “on the otherside of the bridge” — a refer-ence to the months-longroad blockade enforced by amilitarized police forceguarding the pipeline con-struction
In the final weeks ahead
of the election, the state’sfive federally recognizedtribal nations have been uti-lizing the 911 coordinatorsystem to print their own IDcards with addresses fortribal citizens at no cost,while the state has offeredfree IDs to eligible votersprovided by the North Da-kota Department of Trans-portation
But verifying the dresses — so that every votecounts — may be difficult
ad-Calls made to countyauditors supervisingmidterm elections in reser-vation-based precincts saythey have been trained toverify addresses at the pollsusing a system differentfrom the 911 list that NativeAmerican voters were en-couraged to use by the secre-tary of state
Auditors in three of the
counties — Benson, Roletteand Sioux — said they willuse state databases, orprinted poll books, that listpast voters whose residen-tial street addresses matchthose from the North Da-kota Department of Trans-portation
Addresses that do notappear in the file will be add-
ed as write-ins, according toauditors If required, theysaid, verification could alsoinclude cross-referencingwith the state’s 911 coordina-tion system
Ballots requiring furtheraddress verification will beplaced in a “set aside” pile,and it will be up to voters tovalidate their ballot by pre-senting supplementarydocumentation — such asutility bills, bank statements
or employment pay stubs But the problem for tribalcitizens, once again, is thatmany of these documentswon’t reveal physical ad-dresses because they usepostal boxes
“It’s a silent war,” PhyllisYoung said of the process.Young, a former tribalcouncilwoman of the Stand-ing Rock Sioux, said shedoes not have a driver’s li-cense or a state-issued ID.The election law, she said,was not implemented withpeople like her in mind.Parked outside a get-out-the-vote command centerdown the street from whereYellow Fat lives is a brightyellow school bus that will beused to transport StandingRock citizens to the polls.Painted on one side is an im-age of one of the tribe’s mostrevered resisters, SittingBull — a symbol of the kind
of duty that voters say theyfeel to turn out to the polls
“We have been lenged,” Young said
chal-“And yes, we are going tovote like never before.”Monet is a specialcorrespondent
Voter ID law has Native tribes scrambling
North Dakota statute
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Trang 7LATIMES.COM S W S C E M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 A7
solved our September
en-thusiasm problem,” Glen
Bolger of Public Opinion
Strategies, a leading
Repub-lican polling firm, said on
Twitter last week
But that cleared up only
one of the big problems the
Republicans face, he noted
“What’s not clear is
whether we’ve solved our
problem with independent
voters,” he said “That will be
the difference between
win-ning and losing in close
races.”
The USC/Times poll
found self-described
inde-pendents favoring
Demo-cratic control of Congress
this year by 62% to 38%
Overwhelmingly, that’s
because the election has
turned into a referendum on
Trump
“The central issue is
him,” said Robert Shrum,
the co-director of USC’s
Center for the Political
Fu-ture, which cosponsored the
poll “He’s not managed to
substitute” other issues
The poll found about 1 in
4 voters saying that their
views of Trump outweighed
their views of the individual
candidates Among those
with that view, Trump’s
op-ponents outnumbered
sup-porters by roughly 3 to 2
Trump’s political
ap-proach has never been to win
over detractors Instead, he
has sought to boost turnout
among supporters In the
campaign’s final weeks, his
main approach has been to
pound away at what he
de-scribes as the threat to
secu-rity from immigrant
cara-vans moving north through
Mexico and Central
Ameri-ca
Republicans hope that
approach may pull their
can-didates to victory in a few
key Senate races and help as
well in House races,
espe-cially in more conservative
areas
There’s precedent In
2004, strategists for
Presi-dent George W Bush
cor-rectly predicted that he
would do well in his
reelec-tion campaign by
emphasiz-ing a tough response to the
threat of international
ter-rorism Women in particular
would respond to Bush’s
ar-gument, they argued, and
“security moms” became a
mantra for the Republican
campaign
In his final rallies this
time, Trump has said much
the same
“Border security is very
much a woman’s issue,” he
said during a rally in
Mon-tana on Saturday “Women
want security,” he said
“They don’t want that
cara-van.”
Of course, Bush’s
cam-paign came in the aftermath
of a devastating terrorist
at-tack that killed more than
2,700 Americans
By contrast, the caravan
Trump has inveighed
against consists of a few
thousand people, including
many women and children,
who remain hundreds of
miles south of the
U.S.-Mexi-co border
In the poll, about 1 in 6voters said they saw the car-avan as “potential terroristswho should be turned away
as a threat to the UnitedStates.” That share rose toabout 1 in 3 among thosewho said they would vote for
a Republican for Congressthis year
Many more, however,about 4 in 10 voters, said theysaw the caravan as mostly
“asylum seekers in need ofhumanitarian assistance,”
while about 3 in 10 said theythought the group was likely
a mix
Another contrast tween Bush’s approach andTrump’s could prove key:
be-Bush coupled tough talkabout a “global war on ter-ror” with exhortationsagainst religious prejudice
Trump almost never makessuch appeals Instead, he de-nounces perceived enemies,including parts of the newsmedia whom he has dubbed
“enemies of the people.”
By roughly a 3-2 ratio,voters said they saw suchcomments by Trump as
“dangerous language thatcould incite violence.” Inde-pendents took that view by 2
to 1, the poll found
As violent attacks tuated the closing weeks ofthe campaign, polls havefound signs of movementagainst the Republicans in anumber of races
punc-The backlash againstTrump carries the biggestpolitical punch in suburbanareas There, anger towardthe president from minor-ities and college-educatedwhites, especially women,has endangered dozens ofRepublican candidates, andonce-reliably Republicandistricts from OrangeCounty to the outskirts ofPhiladelphia and New Yorkhave turned into electoralbattlegrounds
But the resistance toTrump has failed to enlistmost non-college white vot-ers Their support has keptRepublicans in the fight inmore blue-collar congres-sional districts from north-ern Los Angeles County,where Republican Rep
Steve Knight and his cratic challenger, Katie Hill,have been locked in a tightcontest, to downstateMaine, where a similarlyclose fight pits first-term Re-publican Rep BrucePoliquin against his Demo-cratic challenger, JaredGolden
Demo-The USC/Times pollshows near-perfect symme-try between the two groups
of white voters: Those withcollege degrees side with theDemocrats by nearly 2 to 1,while those without sidewith Republicans by anidentical ratio
Those figures, however,represent an average of vot-ers from across the country
The breakdowns in
individu-al districts vary widely
In the most contesteddistricts, whites without acollege education will end up
on the Republican side, “but
by how much, that’s thequestion,” said Mellman, the
longtime Democratic ster
poll-“The margin by which welose them will make a lot ofdifference in many races.”
While Trump has sized security from outsidethreats, Democrats havecampaigned consistently onsecurity of a different sort:
empha-protection against thethreat of ruinous medicalbills They have saturatedthe airwaves with advertise-ments highlighting Republi-can votes to end insuranceprotections for people withpreexisting medical prob-lems
Almost 1 in 5 voters listedhealthcare as the most im-portant issue in the election,
up several percentagepoints from September,when the poll last asked vot-ers to rank issues The sharelisting healthcare as the topissue outnumbered thoselisting illegal immigration byroughly 3 to 1
Republicans have sisted that they too want toprotect people, but theyhave not gained much trac-tion
in-By 55% to 31%, likely ers said they trusted Demo-crats more to protect peoplewith preexisting health con-ditions
vot-Even a significant share
of Republican voters pressed doubts about theirparty on that issue While91% of Democratic voterssaid they trusted Democratsmore on the issue, only 72%
ex-of Republicans said theytrusted their party more
About 1 in 5 Republican ers said they weren’t sure
vot-Overall, the poll, whichhas tracked voters over thelast several weeks, showsDemocrats ahead by 15 per-centage points, 56% to 41%,when those most likely tovote said which party’s can-didates they either hadvoted for already or ex-pected to vote for this year
A second measure, which
factors in voters’ estimates
of how likely they are to vote,puts the Democratic lead at
10 percentage points, 52% to42%
That so-called abilistic measure should intheory offer a better forecastbecause it takes into ac-count information from allvoters, not just thosedeemed most likely to vote
prob-The probabilistic measureweights voters according tohow likely they say they are
to vote: A person who is 50%
likely to vote, for example,has half as much impact onthe outcome as one who is100% likely The poll is test-ing both approaches to seewhich more accurately fore-casts the actual vote, saidsurvey director Jill Darling
Other polls released day forecast similar results
Sun-The NBC/Wall Street nal poll, for example, peggedthe Democratic advantage
Jour-at 7 points, 50% to 43%, andthe ABC/Washington Postsurvey found Democratswith a 51%-44% lead amonglikely voters
The USC/Times poll,overseen by Darling, was
conducted Oct 28 to urday among 3,936 adultAmericans, including 3,499registered voters of whom2,521 were considered likely
Sat-to vote and 1,091 alreadyvoted
Respondents weredrawn from a probability-based panel maintained byUSC’s Center for Economicand Social Research for itsUnderstanding AmericaStudy Responses wereweighted to accurately re-flect known demographics
of the U.S population Themargin of error is 2 percent-age points in either direc-tion A full description of themethodology, poll questionsand data and additional in-formation about the poll areposted on the USC website.david.lauter@latimes.comTwitter: @DavidLauter
2018 MIDTERM ELE CTION
Questions
remain after
all the polls
DEMOCRAT HARLEY ROUDA, above, is seeking to unseat Republican Rep Dana Rohrabacher in the 48thDistrict The national USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows likely voters prefer Democrats
Kent Nishimura Los Angeles Times
[Voters, from A1]
Margin of error is 2 percentage points in either direction
Source: USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times polls
Los Angeles Times
Democratic advantage as vote nears
Likely voters were asked which party’s candidate they would vote for in the midterm election
0204060%
Oct Nov
Sept
Aug
JuneJan
3%
Nov 3: 56%
Nov 3: 56%
41%
Vote or lean Democratic
Vote or lean Republican
Vote or lean other
latimes.com
/politics/elections
Go online for earlier articles
in this series looking atissues and voter groups key
to the midterm election
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Trang 9at a voter who will stick
with Republican candidates
through hell or high water
That number, according
to a recent poll, is about 39%
of statewide likely voters
The nonpartisan Public
Policy Institute of California
found that this core group of
GOP voters is centered
among the ranks of white
male voters Many live near
San Diego or in the Central
Valley Most are registered
Republicans, though some
are unaffiliated
independ-ent voters Many attended
college but didn’t leave with
a degree
Given the animus of the
state’s elected officials
toward Trump’s policies,
39% support for the
presi-dent among likely California
voters is a reasonably strong
showing (And it’s worth
noting that the president’s
job approval is much lower
among all adults — another
example of how the
elector-ate doesn’t accurelector-ately
re-flect the state as a whole.)
It’s less uplifting, though, for
a Republican who’s trying to
win statewide office
Trump may have helped
reveal the contours of the
party’s base, but his
reputa-tion could also create a
shatterproof ceiling come
election day
John Cox, the GOP
businessman gubernatorial
candidate who moved to
California from Illinois in
2011, is running neck and
neck with Trump PPIC’s
re-cent survey found 38% of
likely voters back Cox over
Democratic Lt Gov Gavin
Newsom, essentially tied
with the president’s
approv-al rating Last week, two
ad-ditional polls — one from UC
Berkeley, another from the
nonpartisan research firm
Gravis — pegged Cox’s
sup-port between 35% and 40%
Gravis found that 36% of
California voters who were
surveyed like Trump
There’s historical
prece-dent to the idea that the
Re-publican base is close to 40%
of voters who cast ballots
While its share of registered
voters has fallen to just 24%
— less than independentvoters — the GOP continues
to cobble together a tion of party faithful andconservative nonconform-ists in numbers that caneclipse the larger liberal butmore disengaged parts ofthe state’s electorate
coali-“Even with declining publican registration in thestate, it seems to be staying
Re-at thRe-at 40%,” said KevinSpillane, a GOP strategist
The percentage may bethe California political ver-sion of baseball’s “Mendozaline,” the boundary between
a respectable and a ridiculedbatting average in the majorleagues, nicknamed for re-tired infielder Mario Men-doza Being above it isn’t ex-actly a sign of success, butbelow it almost alwaysmeans failure
Cox’s predecessor as thestate GOP gubernatorialpick, Neel Kashkari, wasspot-on perfect on thiscount: In the 2014 electionagainst Gov Jerry Brown, hewon 40% of the vote
Kashkari was a comer to California politicswho served as an assistantTreasury secretary underPresidents George W Bush
new-and Obama Like Cox, hestepped forward when bet-ter-known GOP politiciansdecided against running Af-ter losing to Brown, he leftCalifornia to become presi-dent of the Federal ReserveBank of Minneapolis
That 40% mark in generalelection votes — let’s call itthe “Kashkari line” — offers
a marker by which to trackstatewide Republican cam-paigns In races for governorsince 1990, it’s a rung on theladder that only one candi-date has failed to reach: DanLungren, who in 1998 as Cali-fornia’s attorney generalgarnered only 38% of thevote against Democrat GrayDavis
Gov Arnold egger was the most success-ful, winning reelection in
Schwarzen-2006 with 56% of the vote
Former Gov Pete Wilsonalso pushed far past the line
to win a second term in theGOP’s historic landslideelection of 1994
Others barely crossedthe line, though, even whenthey had plenty of money fortheir effort Meg Whitman,the billionaire candidatewho spent $178.5 million,captured only 41% of the vote
in 2010 Bill Simon, theGOP’s wealthy hopeful eightyears earlier, maxed out at42%
Republicans running forstatewide offices other thangovernor, in so-called down-ticket races, have also hov-ered around the line TwoGOP candidates four yearsago — Ashley Swearenginfor state controller and PetePeterson for secretary ofstate — topped out at 46% ofthe vote in losing efforts thatNovember
But the hurdles are cially high now, at the height
espe-of the national Republicanbrand’s toxicity to millions ofmoderate California voters
Even tougher is a top-twoprimary system that ex-cludes third-party andwrite-in candidates from thefall ballot Twice in the lastthree decades, a fracturedelectorate allowed the win-ner in the governor’s race —Davis in 1998, Wilson in 1990
— to claim victory with lessthan 50% of the vote
For Cox to have a chance
in these final days of the 2018election, he has to win al-most all the undecided vot-ers in recent polls while si-phoning off lukewarm New-
som voters He would alsoneed to escape Trump’sshadow, which probably feltmore like shelter when thepresident endorsed Coxduring the primary cam-paign in May Newsom is try-ing to make the governor’srace a referendum onTrump, with television adsthat mention the command-
er in chief — not his can opponent
Republi-And the ads highlight other problem: Cox doesn’thave the money to answerback The state’s GOPstandard-bearer is heardbut not seen as the electiondraws near, forced by limitedcash to make his closing ar-gument only on radio Thekind of widely seen TV ad-vertising blitz for which Cali-fornia campaigns are knownwould cost at least $3 million
an-a week As of lan-ate October,Cox had less than $600,000left to spend
Spillane, who nated an independent politi-cal action committee in sup-port of Kashkari’s bid fouryears ago, said some tradi-tional GOP donors have giv-
coordi-en up on races for governor
A Times analysis foundfewer than six dozen donors
to Kashkari’s candidatecommittee from 2014 whohave given money to Cox’s
2018 effort
“A number of them,frankly, think it’s just futile,”Spillane said
Wealthy backers have stead been urged to spendtheir money on California’shot congressional races inwhich Republicans are fight-ing for survival Or they’retrying to win enough GOPseats in Sacramento to keepDemocrats from a legisla-tive supermajority
in-But Tuesday’s electioncould face the most signifi-cant test to the size of theRepublican base of any inmodern history, as the elec-toral typhoon wrought byTrump hits just as the statecontinues moving to the po-litical left And at a timewhen all of the campaignmetaphors are weather-related — surges, waves,floods — Cox and the otherseverely underfunded state-wide GOP hopefuls maysoon be left to board up thewindows and try to ride outthe storm
john.myers@latimes.comTwitter: @johnmyers
High hurdles despite a coalition of party faithful
A SURVEYfound 38% of likely voters back Republican John Cox,center, essentially tied with President Trump’s approval rating
Irfan Khan Los Angeles Times
LT GOV Gavin Newsom is trying to make the governor’s race areferendum on Trump, with ads that call out the president, not Cox
Jay L Clendenin Los Angeles Times
[GOP base, from A1]
The pivotal battles for control of the House
Trang 10A10 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2018 LATIMES.COM
The pivotal battles for control of the House
government and liberalism
led to Soviet domination
The message stuck
Within the decade, Orange
County would have 38
chap-ters of the
conspiracy-minded, ultra-right-wing
John Birch Society, which
called Republican President
Dwight D Eisenhower a
“communist tool.” Knott
and actor John Wayne were
members, as was the
coun-ty’s congressman
The rightward
mobili-zation during the suburban
explosion of the 1960s gave
Orange County a national
reputation for hard-line
con-servatism with a crackpot
edge — “nut country,” in the
words of Fortune magazine
The county’s deep
pock-ets funded right-wing
candi-dates and movements
throughout the nation At
home it spawned popular
but ultimately doomed
mea-sures such as the Briggs
Ini-tiative in 1978 to ban gays
and lesbians from working in
public schools, and
Pro-position 187 in 1994, which
would have denied public
services to immigrants in
the country illegally
The Republican Party
reached its peak in the
Reagan era and has been
slowly losing its
member-ship edge since 1990, as the
diversity of Los Angeles and
the world at large started to
bleed through the so-called
Orange Curtain
Registered Republicans
today outnumber
Demo-crats by only 2 percentage
points, down from 22% at the
peak, with a large contingent
of self-declared
independ-ents positioned to swing
elections either way The
GOP has a chance of losing
four congressional seats in
the county in Tuesday’s
midterm election If so, it
would be the first time since
the 1930s that Orange
County would be without
Republican representation
in the House
A GOP loss of even one or
two seats would be
signifi-cant, not as a turning point
so much as a powerful sign of
change — hastened by
dis-like for President Trump —
in this one-time heart of
American conservatism
::
Orange County seceded
from its northwestern
neigh-bor, Los Angeles, in 1889, led
by fiercely independent
ranchers, sheepherders,
beekeepers, citrus growers
and crop farmers who had
bristled under the control of
a rich city 30 miles up the rail
line
The county then was a
constellation of small farm
and dairy towns in the north
and scattered resort towns
along the coast In the south,
the basin tapered off into anarrowing valley betweenthe Santa Ana Mountainsand the coastal San JoaquinHills, where sheep and cattleranches had thrived sinceCalifornia was part of Spain
and Mexico
Americans had takenover the ranchos in the late19th century after a devas-tating drought left many oldlandowners of Spanish an-cestry, the Californios,
broke
Lewis Moulton was one ofthe Yankee migrants Hecame from Boston in 1874and grazed sheep on theopen range from Oceanside
to Long Beach Family lore
has it that natural gas seepswere so rich in some spotsthat, as he camped, he wouldlight them to cook his break-fast
After two decades of ing land, he and a Basqueshepherd, John Pierre Da-guerre, had enough money
rent-to buy Rancho Niguel, whichthey eventually expanded to22,000 acres It was rugged,isolated country, goodmostly for grazing Thecheapest land was the steeppart near the coast, betweenwhat would become LagunaBeach and Dana Point —about $15 an acre Today,small fractions of an acre gofor double-digit millions
In the second half of the20th century, these back-water ranchers and farmers,the Moulton family, theO’Neills, Floods, Irvines,Segerstroms, would phys-ically and culturally shapeOrange County into the sub-urban giant it is today
But there was always anunderclass that made theirdreams work
Tenant farmers — oftenwith roots in Mexico, theBasque country or in Cali-fornia before the Americanconquest — rented spots onthese ranches to graze andgrow barley Others toiled ashands for the landowners
In the north, they lived insegregated barrios in SantaAna, Westminster, Anaheimand Garden Grove — wheretheir children attendedseparate “Mexican schools”
until a federal appeals courtruled them unconstitutional
in 1947 In the south, theymade up smaller communi-ties in El Toro and San JuanCapistrano
“My tata got killed rightthere by the train when hewas 93 years old,” StephenRios said of his grandfather,
an American Indian namedMochanai, as he sat in hisfront garden across from theMission San Juan Capi-strano “He was a vaquero, awell-known horse trainer.”
Rios’ family worked forthe Moultons and O’Neillsand lived in the adobe housebuilt in 1794 for their ances-tor Feliciano Rios, who came
to California as a Spanishsoldier and married anAmerican Indian woman
Rios, an attorney, ited the home from his fa-ther and lives there today
inher-His son’s bedroom has theceiling boards that thefamed bandito JoaquinMurrieta, a family friendknown as the Robin Hood of
El Dorado, would lift to hide
in the attic in the 1850s Aflat-screen TV sits belowthem now
The American Indian,Californio and Mexican resi-dents of their dirt street —the oldest neighborhood inCalifornia — were conserva-tive “They loved their fam-
ilies, their church,” he said
“They loved their pieces ofland They were strong, reli-gious, independent people.”Republicans reignedduring the rural era Theland barons did not want la-bor organizers anywherenear their field hands.When orange pickerswalked out of the orchards in
1936, the strikers were rested and beaten by policeand mobs The Times re-ported “old vigilante dayswere revived in the orchards
ar-of Orange County yesterday
as one man lay near deathand scores nursed injuries.”Changes in OrangeCounty’s 948 square miles —physical, demographic andpolitical — have alwaysrolled from north to south.While the Rios family wasstill living in the cowboy era,World War II brought rapidtransformation to the north-ern part of the county.The military neededmore West Coast bases tofight the Japanese, and theopen space between LongBeach and San Diego wasperfect The governmentbuilt bases in Seal Beach,Los Alamitos, Santa Anaand El Toro
Defense contractors andother big manufacturers fol-lowed: Hughes Aircraft,Rockwell, Ford Aeronu-tronic, Boeing, AmericanElectronics, Beckman In-struments
The farmers and ers became developers, orsold their land to otherbuilders, creating vasttracts of homes across thenorthern end of the countyfrom Huntington Beach toFullerton In this era of bigcars and backyard bar-becues, houses turned in-ward Garages replacedporches and picture win-dows; neighborhoods werequiet
ranch-The newcomers, manyfrom the South and Midwest
or white-flighters from LosAngeles, converged atchurch
::
At its core, OrangeCounty held a tension be-tween Midwestern tradi-tionalism and California’sdrive for reinvention.The midcentury suburbs
in the north were an-leaning enclaves, yet liv-ing on Washington defensespending, and listening to
libertari-a sunny California-bredgospel of self-empowermentand prosperity
An Iowan named RobertSchuller put out a news-paper ad in 1955, “Come asyou are … In the family car!”
He preached from theroof of the snack bar at theOrange Drive-in theater, notabout fire and brimstone,but about “possibility think-
LAWYERStephen Rios, whose family worked for the Moultons and O’Neills, stands in the doorway of the adobe house in San Juan Capistrano built by his family in the1780s The Rios Adobe is the the oldest continuously inhabited home in California and a huge part of the history and culture of Orange County
Mark Boster For The Times
Conservative bastion evolves again
BARRY GOLDWATER, right, and his running mate William Miller accept theRepublican Party’s nomination in San Francisco in July 1964
AFP/Getty Images
Sources: California secretary of state, Political Data Inc
Democrats gaining ground
In Orange County, once a Republican stronghold, Democrats have made significant inroads in vote share and party registration in recent years
Cities with the largest decline in registered Republicans
% of registered Republicans % of registered Democrats
’02 ’18
47%
29%
4932
4930
4336
27
35
3234
2941
3337
29
41
2843
3035
2447
4927
Trang 11L AT I M E S C O M M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 A11
ing” with catchphrases like
“Turn your scars into stars.”
Schuller’s congregation
boomed, becoming one of
the nation’s first
mega-churches His “Hour of
Power” television sermon
beamed across the country
In 1980, he built a glass
church longer than a football
field, the Crystal Cathedral
Orange County birthed
hugely influential ministries
that mixed God with
conser-vative politics: Chuck
Smith’s Calvary Chapel,
Greg Laurie’s Harvest
Cru-sade, Paul and Jan Crouch’s
Trinity Broadcasting
Net-work and Rick Warren’s
Saddleback Church
“The megachurches
re-inforced and marinated the
conservatism coming out of
the defense plants,” said
Fred Smoller, associate
pro-fessor of political science at
Chapman University
Orange County’s open
space and space-age
tech-nology, coupled with fervent
entrepreneurship and
an-edge-of-the-continent
men-tality, let tinkerers and
vi-sionaries experiment with
minimal regulation
This was a suburban
county that, like no other,
reached deep into popular
culture
Knott’s Berry Farm was
the nation’s first theme
park Disneyland became
one of the world’s biggest
destinations The ministries
reached millions South
Coast Plaza shopping mall
would draw more people
from around the world than
Disneyland The Irvine
ranch grew into the largest
planned city in America
Leisure World became the
first retirement community
In new coastal towns
such as Dana Point and San
Clemente, Hobie Alter,
Gor-don “Grubby” Clark and
John Severson (living next
door to Orange County
na-tive Richard Nixon in his
“Western White House”)
helped create a whole new
culture around an ancient
Polynesian sport that would
become a multibillion-dollar
surf industry
In Laguna Beach, Tom
Morey, a Douglas Aircraft
composites engineer,
in-vented the bodyboard In
Anaheim, the Van Doren
brothers opened the first
Vans store
And the likes of Knott
and Anaheim’s Carl
Karcher, the founder of
Carl’s Jr., would help give
America a new brand of
con-servatism, with their friend
John Wayne in Newport
Beach to embody it
With the Cold War at its
peak in the 1960s, families in
Orange County, so many of
them in the military or
de-fense industry, heeded their
call
“At living room bridge
clubs, at backyard
bar-becues, and at kitchen coffee
klatches, the middle-class
men and women of Orange
County ‘awakened’ to what
they perceived as the
threats of communism and
liberalism,” wrote Lisa
Mc-Girr, a professor of history at
Harvard, in “Suburban
War-riors: The Origins of the New
American Right.” “They
be-came the cutting edge of the
conservative movement in
the 1960s.”
“The lack of a large
or-ganized working class and
the near absence of racial
minorities made it likely
that Orange County’s
politi-cal rainbow would consist of
relatively few colors.”
The quiet homogeneity of
the walled and gated
com-munities allowed politicians
to exploit fears of the
out-sider — whether they be
Af-rican AmeAf-ricans from Los
Angeles, immigrants from
Mexico, or gays, Muslims
and Koreans
“The anti-minority stuff
accelerated political careers
here,” said Smoller, the
po-litical scientist “We have a
history of sending some real
oddballs to Congress.”
An early one was Rep
James Utt, who in 1963
warned about the United
Nations training “a large
contingent of barefooted
Af-ricans” in Georgia to take
over the country
Cementing this
conser-vatism: its daily newspaper,
the Register, and its
liber-tarian owner Raymond C
Hoiles He had once waged
war against a measure to
im-prove mental health care in
Alaska because he said it
was a communist plot to
Douglas, bought a small
home in Buena Park for
$18,500 His neighbor’s first
admonition to him: They
must help ensure no blacks,
Mexicans or Catholics
moved in
Donnelly was a Catholic,
and even worse, a card-carrying Democratwho once played guitar andbanjo in a touring folk band
union-He and his wife had two girlsand joined the St Pius VChurch on OrangethorpeAvenue and started a choir
With his own slice of bia, he became more con-cerned about taxes and grewmore conservative
subur-“I didn’t like some of thestuff I was seeing in the cit-ies, the drugs and crime Itseemed like people wereabusing welfare I was pay-ing for that.”
He switched parties andnever looked back
After Orange County’s vorite candidate BarryGoldwater lost to PresidentLyndon B Johnson in 1964,Republican rainmakersturned their attention toReagan’s run for governor
fa-His first political fundraiserwas at a home in Anaheim,and the county would nur-ture his ambitions the rest ofhis career
By the 1970s, developershad reached deep into southOrange County The Irvine
Co had wound down its tle operations and wasparceling out its 185 squaremiles of land Some 1,500acres near Newport Beachwould become UC Irvine
cat-The company developed amaster plan for a city to growaround the university, whichwould incorporate in 1971
The Moultons sold theirland soon after to developerswho would build LagunaHills, Laguna Woods, La-guna Niguel and Aliso Viejo
In their yards, homeownerswould find rattlesnakes thatwandered out of the wildcanyons and steep hillsidesbetween subdivisions
To the east and south,the O’Neills’ vast scrubbyland would give way to evennewer, posher cities such asRancho Santa Margarita,Ladera Ranch and the com-munity of Coto de Caza —the setting for the “RealHousewives of OrangeCounty.”
With all this tion, Stephen Rios’ 225-year-old adobe home is hemmed
construc-in by suburbia
The “Los Rios District” isnow on the National Regis-ter of Historic Places and is
highly sought-after real tate for its quaint atmos-phere
es-Most of the old Californiofamilies sold and moved on
“Everyone else wants tolive here now,” Rios said
Lewis Moulton’s grandson, Jared Mathis,came back from a job backeast to Laguna Hills to man-age the family’s remainingholdings A few years ago, hetook his dad — who movedaway in the 1970s — for adrive to look at the old ranchwhere he grew up
great-But his father couldn’tget his bearings All the land-marks were gone, the hillsterraced, new trees andhouses blocked once wideviews “They say they movedmore dirt building Aliso Vi-ejo than they did digging thePanama Canal,” Mathissaid
Mathis drove his father tothe ridgeline of LagunaBeach From there, youcould see the whole rancharea, smell the laurel sumac
in Aliso Canyon, glimpsesome old corrals in the dis-tance, get a grip of the topo-graphy The white striations
of terraced neighborhoodsfaded in the haze The twinpeaks of Modjeska and San-tiago, called Old Saddle-back, framed the view, asthey did in most of thecounty, one thing that neverchanged
“He could see where theyhad the old roundups,” hesaid “That was a powerfulimage for him.”
As development movedsouth, the older, northernparts of the county lost some
of their luster The affluentwhite Republicans drifted tothe shinier places depicted
in TV shows such as “TheO.C.”
The explosion in SouthCounty home constructioncreated thousands of jobs
“The people building all ofthose houses were Latino,”
said Smoller, the politicalscience professor Like theold tenant farmers, theyhelped families such as theIrvines realize their dreams
Thousands of other inos would follow to work inservice jobs in these wealthynew areas
Lat-The humming economyoverall and good schools
also lured professional andmiddle-class Latinos to thenorthern neighborhoodsthat Anglos were leaving intheir migration south
In Santa Ana in the 1970s,the population of Latinoswent from 40,000 to 90,000
Today, Latinos account for78% of Santa Ana’s popula-tion Northwest OrangeCounty looks a lot likeSoutheast L.A County LaHabra is 57% Latino; Ana-heim, 52%; Buena Park, 40%;
Garden Grove, 37%
The other big factor thatbrought demographicchange was seeded 53 yearsago, when the federal gov-ernment removed racistquotas on immigrants fromAsia, and Greater Los Ange-les became a major destina-tion for Koreans and Chi-nese
In 1975, after Saigon fell,50,000 South Vietnameselanded in nearby CampPendleton, and conservativeOrange County stepped up
to take the anti-communistrefugees
The Register called onchurches and citizens tosponsor these newcomers
They were put up in ments in neglected parts ofWestminster and GardenGrove still surrounded bybean fields
apart-Soon the fields and lapidated commercial stripsgave way to bustling placessuch as Saigon Market andHoa Binh Market, ushering
di-in a wave of new Vietnamesebusinesses that would revi-talize the area
Frank Jao started off inthe U.S selling Kirby vacu-
um cleaners in Whittier
Within a year, he moved toGarden Grove, became areal estate agent, then devel-oper, first building a shop-ping mall in Westminsterwith the help of Chinese in-vestors
So many Vietnamesestorefronts were opening inWestminster, changing itslook so rapidly, that morethan 100 residents signed apetition calling for the city tostop issuing business li-censes It was an ugly time
“Anyone driving on Bolsawould more than occa-sionally be confronted bydrivers who rolled downtheir windows and asked us
to roll down ours, and they’dgive us the middle finger,” re-called Jao, now 70 “Whenwe’d go to work in the morn-ing, we’d find the windowsshot out by BB guns.”
His buildings became thecore of Little Saigon, notablyits landmark Asian GardenMall His company built $400million worth of shoppingcenters and apartmentbuildings throughout Or-ange County and beyond
Upscale Chinese familiestook to Irvine Many had leftChina because of the lack ofopportunities for their chil-dren to attend college, andthis master-planned com-munity, built around UCIrvine, was a huge draw, as itwas to moderately affluentKoreans, Iranians and Lat-inos Irvine is nearly 40%
Asian now
Koreans had begun ling in from L.A during the1980s, seeking betterschools The 1992 Los Ange-les riots, in which many Ko-rean store owners lost theirbusinesses, sped up the flow
trick-They often stuck close gether, moving into specificneighborhoods in GardenGrove, Fullerton and BuenaPark
to-The Asian influx has alsocontributed to the reorder-ing of politics in once reliablyRepublican Orange County
As a whole, Asian cans are more likely to regis-ter as “no party preference”
Ameri-and vote based on specific sues, not party, saidKarthick Ramakrishnan, aprofessor of political scienceand public policy at UC Riv-erside They leaned Republi-can during the Reagan eraand well into the 1990s whilesubsequent generationsmoved to the left
is-“About one-third of AsianAmericans voted for Clinton
in 1992,” Ramakrishnansaid, “but two-thirds votedfor Obama in 2008.”
He said in the last fiveyears strong GOP outreach
to the community in OrangeCounty — and encourage-ment of Asian Americans torun for office — has broughtmany back to the party ButRamakrishnan said toomany factors are at play tosay how they will vote Tues-day An example: They don’tlike Trump’s anti-immi-
grant rhetoric, but namese, Taiwanese and Ko-reans like his confronta-tional stance toward China
Viet-In Buena Park, Pat nelly, still a Republican, met
Don-a KoreDon-an AmericDon-an estDon-ateattorney named Sunny Park
— a Democrat — at his on’s Club He came to realizeshe had values he admired:honesty, a family focus,strong work ethic Now he’scampaigning for her as sheruns for City Council.Park had followed her ag-ing Korean clients from LosAngeles, moving into the af-fluent and increasingly Ko-rean Bellehurst neighbor-hood When she knocks ondoors, many white peoplehave offered support Butsome have grumbled “NoKoreans” and shut the door
Li-in her face
A couple of weeks ago,she started seeing campaignsigns that said “No SunnyPark, Carpetbagger.”She says the messagethat sends the Korean com-munity is that she — and byextension they — are notfrom here and that theyshouldn’t try to take part inpolitics
::
The political dynamic inOrange County is not somuch a rising blue tide but
an ebbing red one Since
1999, registered Democratsrose by less than 2 percent-age points to 33.6%, whileRepublicans have fallen 14points to 35.6% of voters Thewave is of independent vot-ers who increased in num-bers nearly as much as theRepublicans fell
A majority of Latinosvote Democrat, and growth
in their community hasbuoyed the party While theytend to be more socially con-servative, they favor more le-nient immigration policies,social programs that helpthe poor, strong unions andhigh minimum wages.Historically, turnout hasnot matched their share ofthe population, but someRepublican strategists fearTrump’s derogatory com-ments about Mexican andCentral American immi-grants might motivate themthis year
In 1996, the grant rhetoric surroundingProposition 187 helped endthe ultra-right OrangeCounty Republican BobDornan’s political career,and put Democrat LorettaSanchez in Congress.Just like the devel-opment, the diversity andDemocratic edge are push-ing south in this county of 3.2 million people
anti-immi-In 2002, Democrats numbered Republicans only
out-in Santa Ana, Buena Parkand Stanton Now they do in
11 cities reaching down toIrvine
In Laguna Niguel, CandyAntone, 47, said Democratssuch as her essentially lived
in the closet until recently.She would go quiet when aRepublican friend or neigh-bor would go on a politicalrant “You just had to biteyour lip,” she said
But Trump is repellingeven many Republicanshere “Democrats are com-ing out of the woodwork,”Antone said “People we’veknown for years, we’re justfinding out they’re Demo-crats.”
joe.mozingo@latimes.comTwitter: @joemozingo
VIETNAMESErefugees, having fled their homeland, exit a bus at the Camp Talega relocation center at Camp Pendleton in June 1975
Don Bartletti Vista Press
ROBERT SCHULLER, in his new Crystal Cathedral in 1980, built one of the nation’s first megachurches
Tony Barnard Los Angeles Times
The pivotal battles for control of the House
Trang 12A12 M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 L AT I M E S C O M
MONDAY BUSINESS
THE AGENDA: AUTOMATION
How many jobs are nerable to automation?
vul-A recent study by the ganization for Economic Co-operation and Developmentsaid that about 46% of jobshave a better-than-evenchance of being automated
Or-A 2016 study by CitigroupInc and the University ofOxford reported that 57% ofjobs were at high risk of auto-mation, although a 2013 pa-per by two of the same re-searchers predicted 47% Arecent PricewaterhouseC-oopers report comes up withsomewhat lower numbers,though it varies by country
These are large numbers
Even more troubling, they’reall fairly similar — each of thestudies seems to come to theconclusion that roughly half
of all jobs are very vulnerable
to automation But don’tpanic — nobody reallyknows how many jobs will bereplaced by robots, or evenwhat it means to be re-placed
What does it mean for ajob to be lost to automation?
Does it mean that a person isrendered entirely obsolete
as a worker, and is forced to
go on the welfare rolls? Ordoes it mean that she losesher current job, with her cur-rent company? If a persongets a new job at a differentcompany in the same indus-try for more pay, does it stillcount as a job loss? Whatabout for 85% as much pay?
The studies are not clearabout this Usually, their ba-sic methodology is to showsome technology experts adescription of a job — or thetasks that, on paper, a job issaid to require — and thenask the experts whetherthey think technology willsoon be able to do thosetasks But even assumingthat the experts are correct
— that there isn’t another AIwinter or broad technolog-ical stagnation — nobodyreally knows what happens
to a job whose tasks can beautomated
In their book, “PredictionMachines: The Simple Econ-omics of Artificial Intelli-gence,” economists and AIspecialists Ajay Agrawal,Joshua Gans and Avi Gold-farb predict that few jobs will
be entirely replaced by AI inthe near future, but thatmany individual tasks will
be automated
What happens to an ployee who now has a mach-ine to do half of her work forher, but who is still needed to
em-do the other half? She mightget a pay cut, but she alsomight get a raise, since shecan now get more work doneper hour than before Herjob description and titlemight change, but if she’searning more, she’s unlikely
to mind
In other words, the called risk posed by automa-tion isn’t all downside — ithas considerable upside aswell
so-Even more important,studies such as the onescited above can’t say muchabout what automationdoes to the job market as awhole It’s almost certainthat as some jobs get auto-mated, others will be created
to take their place Just sider all the jobs that didn’texist a few years or decadesago — social media manager,data scientist or podcastproducer Additionally,those job categories thatdon’t end up getting fullyautomated might expand ifthe supply of workers avail-able to do them increased.The studies also don’t ac-count for income effects Au-tomation makes it cheaper
con-to run a business, which canmake the number of busi-nesses proliferate Thatmeans that even if each busi-ness employs fewer peoplefor a particular job, the num-ber of people doing that jobcan increase
A famous case of this ishow ATMs were predicted toreduce the number of banktellers In fact, the number oftellers per branch did fallsubstantially, but banksopened a lot more branches,
in part because ATMs made
it cheaper to do so
As a result, the number ofbank tellers increasedsteadily from 1980 to 2010(though it has fallen some-what since then, thanks inpart to industry consolida-tion) Cashiers are anotherexample: Despite self-check-out machines, the number ofhumans working in the areahas remained essentiallyconstant
More fundamentally, tomation of one sort or an-other has been happeningfor centuries — machinetools, steam shovels, wordprocessors, street sweepers,and plenty of other mach-ines are just forms of auto-mation If you did a studylike the ones listed above in
au-1900, you would have foundthat almost any job at thetime had some tasks thatmachines would somedayperform And yet, most peo-ple still have a job
To really know how mation will affect employ-ment levels, wages and in-equality, you need a macro-economic model, and youneed lots of assumptionsabout how technology af-fects companies’ costs,workers’ productivity andconsumers’ preferences Allthose things introduce hugeamounts of uncertainty.Meanwhile, studies likethe ones listed above arehelpful and informative, andmany of them contain inter-esting data about the rela-tionship between technol-ogy and economy — but theydon’t tell you whether yourlivelihood is really at risk.Smith, an assistantprofessor of finance atStony Brook University,writes a column forBloomberg
auto-Could your job
be automated? Don’t panic yet
CONTRARY TOpredictions, ATMs helped increasethe number of bank tellers overall from 1980 to 2010
Kevork Djansezian Getty Images
No one really knows how many workers could be replaced In some cases, new work could be created.
By Noah Smith
It’s hiring day at Rolls
Royce’s jet-engine plant
near Petersburg, Va Twelve
candidates are divided into
three teams and given the
task of assembling a box
Twelve Rolls Royce
employ-ees stand around them, one
assigned to each candidate,
taking notes
The box is a prop, and the
test has nothing to do with
programming or repairing
the robots that make engine
parts here It’s about
col-laborative problem solving
“We are looking at what
they say, we are looking at
what they do, we are looking
at the body language of how
they are interacting,” says
Lorin Sodell, the plant
man-ager
For all the technical
mar-vels inside this fully
auto-mated, 8-year-old facility,
Sodell talks a lot about soft
skills such as
trouble-shooting and intuition
“There are virtually no
manual operations here
anymore,” he says People
“aren’t as tied to the
equip-ment as they were in the
past, and they are really
freed up to work on more
higher-order activities.”
Call it the automation
paradox: The infusion of
ar-tificial intelligence, robotics
and big data into the
work-place is elevating the
de-mand for people’s ingenuity,
to reinvent a process or
rap-idly solve problems in an
emergency
The new blue-collar labor
force will need four
“distinc-tively more human” core
competencies for advanced
production: complex
rea-soning, social and emotional
intelligence, creativity and
certain forms of sensory
per-ception, said Jim Wilson, a
managing director at
Accen-ture, a consulting firm
“Work in a certain sense,
and globally in
manufactur-ing, is becoming more
hu-man and less robotic,” says
Wilson, who helped lead an
Accenture study on
emerg-ing technologies and
em-ployment needs covering
14,000 companies in 14 large,
industrialized nations
Few narratives in
econo-mics and social policy are as
alarmist as the penetration
of automation and artificial
intelligence into the
work-place, especially in
manufac-turing
Economists talk about
the hollowing-out of
middle-income employment
American political
dis-course is full of nostalgia for
high-paying blue-collar jobs
The Trump administration
is imposing tariffs and writing trade agreements toentice companies to keepplants in the U.S or evenbring them back
re-The stark reality is thatautomation will continue toerode repetitive work nomatter where people do it
But there is also a myth inthis narrative that suggestsAmerica has permanentlylost its edge The vacantmills in the Southeast andMidwest, and the strugglingcities around them, are evi-dence of how technology andlow-cost labor can rapidlykill off less-agile industries
This isn’t necessarily a logue to what’s next, howev-er
pro-Cutting-edge turing not only involves theextreme precision of a RollsRoyce turbofan disc It’s alsomoving toward mass cus-tomization and what EricaFuchs calls “parts consoli-dation” — making more-complex blocks of compo-nents so a car, for example,has far fewer parts This newfrontier often involves ex-perimentation, with engi-neers learning through fre-quent contact with produc-tion staff, requiring workers
manufac-to make new kinds of tributions
con-“This is a chance for theU.S to lead We have theknowledge and skills,” saysFuchs, an engineering andpublic-policy professor atCarnegie Mellon University
“When you move turing overseas, it can be-come unprofitable to pro-duce with the most ad-vanced technologies.”
manufac-The new alliance betweenlabor and smart machines isapparent on Rolls Royce’sshop floor The 33 machin-ists aren’t repeating one sin-gle operation but are re-sponsible for the flow of fan-disc and turbine-blade pro-duction They are in charge
of their day, monitoring erations, consulting with en-gineers and maintainingequipment
op-This demonstrates whatautomation really does: Itchanges the way people usetheir time A visit to theplant also reveals why fac-tory workers in automatedoperations need more thansome knowledge of mach-ine-tool maintenance andprogramming: They arepart of a process run by ateam
Sodell opens what lookslike a giant suitcase Inside
is a titanium disc about thesize of a truck tire Unfin-ished, it costs $35,000, andit’s worth more than twicethat much once it’s mach-ined as closely as possible tothe engineers’ perfect math-ematical description of thepart The end product is sofinely cut and grooved it re-sembles a piece of industrialjewelry
“I am not at all bothered
by the fact that there isn’t aperson here looking afterthis,” he says, standing next
to a cutting station abouthalf the size of a subway car
Inside, a robot arm is uring by itself, picking out itsown tools and recordingdata along the way
meas-Variations in the
materi-al, temperatures and tion can cause the robot todeviate from the engineers’
vibra-model So human instinctand know-how are required
to devise new techniquesthat reduce the variance
Just by looking at the way tanium is flecking off a disc
ti-in the cuttti-ing cell, for ple, a machinist can tellsomething is off, Sodell says
exam-With expensive raw als, such technical acumen iscrucial
materi-It’s also important cause current artificial-in-telligence systems don’thave full comprehension ofnon-standard events, the
be-way a GPS in a car can’tcomprehend a sudden de-tour And they don’t alwayshave the ability to come upwith innovations that im-prove the process
Sodell says workers areconstantly looking for ways
to refine automation Hetells the story of a new hirewho figured out a way to get
a machine to clean itself Hedeveloped a tool and wrote aprogram that is now part ofthe production system
Technicians start offmaking $48,000 a year andcan earn as much as $70,000,depending on achievementand skill level Most need atleast two years of experience
or precision-machining tification from a communitycollege
cer-Rolls Royce is ing with these schools andrelying on instructors likeTim Robertson, among thefirst 50 people it hired in Vir-ginia He now teaches ad-vanced manufacturing atDanville Community Col-lege and says it’s hard to ex-plain what work is like at anautomated facility Jobs re-quire a lot more mental en-gagement, he explains, be-cause machinists are look-ing at data as much as mate-rials and equipment
collaborat-The Danville program cludes a class on talkingthrough conflict, along withlive production where stu-dents are required to meet aschedule for different com-ponents in a simulatedplant The group stops twice
in-a din-ay in-and discusses how tooptimize work flow
“You can ship a machinetool to any country in theworld,” Robertson says
“But the key is going to bethe high-level technicianthat can interact with thedata at high-level activityand be flexible.”
Torres writes forBloomberg
MACHINES HELP produce Chevrolet vehicles at a Michigan plant in 2011 Technology can rapidly kill off
less-agile industries But in others, artificial intelligence is elevating the demand for human ingenuity
Paul Sancya Associated Press
How blue-collar work will
adapt to the rise of robots
As repetitive tasks fall
to machines, experts
say jobs are shifting
toward skills such as
Trang 13L AT I M E S C O M W S C E M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 A13
NORTH OGDEN, Utah
— A Utah mayor who was
also a Utah Army National
Guard major training
com-mandos in Afghanistan was
fatally shot by one of his
Afghan trainees, officials
said Sunday
Brent Taylor, 39, had
tak-en a yearlong leave of
ab-sence as mayor of North
Og-den, north of Salt Lake City,
for his deployment to
Af-ghanistan
He was a military
intelli-gence officer with Joint
Force Headquarters and
was expected to return to his
mayoral job in January
An-other U.S military member
whose name was not
im-mediately made public was
wounded in Saturday’s
at-tack that killed Taylor, who
died from wounds from
small arms fire, military
offi-cials said
Maj Gen Jefferson S
Burton, the adjutant
gen-eral of the Utah National
Guard, told reporters that
Taylor’s mission was to help
train and build the capacity
of the Afghan national army
“He was with folks he washelping and training That’swhat’s so painful about this
It’s bitter,” Burton said “I dobelieve that Maj Taylor felt
he was among friends, withpeople he was workingwith.”
Utah news outlets cited astatement from NATO say-ing that Taylor was shot byone of the commandos beingtrained and that the at-tacker was killed by Afghanforces
Taylor leaves behind awife and seven children Hisremains are scheduled to ar-rive at Dover Air Force Base
in Delaware on Monday ning
eve-Utah Gov Gary Herbertsaid Taylor “was there tohelp He was a leader Heloved the people of Af-ghanistan This is a sad dayfor Utah, for America.”
“Brent was a hero, a triot, a wonderful father, and
pa-a depa-ar friend,” U.S Sen rin Hatch of Utah said onTwitter
Or-“News of his death in ghanistan is devastating
Af-My prayers and love are withJennie and his seven youngchildren His service will al-ways be remembered.”
Taylor served two tours
in Iraq and was on his
sec-ond tour in Afghanistan
Taylor told local media inJanuary when he was beingdeployed that he was as-
signed to serve on an ory team training the staff of
advis-an Afghadvis-an commadvis-ando talion
bat-Hundreds of residents ofNorth Ogden lined thestreets to see him off as po-lice escorted him and his
family around the
communi-ty of about 17,000
Taylor became mayor in2013
Utah mayor is killed in Afghanistan
SOLDIERSat a Draper, Utah, news conference react to news of North Ogden Mayor Brent Taylor’s slaying
Francisco Kjolseth Salt Lake Tribune
Army National Guard
Maj Brent Taylor is
“Our hearts are brokenfor the girls and families ofthe Girl Scouts of the North-western Great Lakes,” ChiefExecutive Sylvia Acevedo ofGirl Scouts of the USA said
in a statement Sunday “TheGirl Scout movement every-where stands with our sisterGirl Scouts in Wisconsin togrieve and comfort one an-other in the wake of this ter-rible tragedy.”
Lake Hallie police Sgt
LAKE HALLIE, Wis — A
western Wisconsin
commu-nity on Sunday was grieving
the deaths of three Girl
Scouts and an adult who
were collecting trash along a
rural highway when police
say a pickup truck veered off
the road and hit them before
speeding away
Authorities had not
re-leased the names of the girls
or the woman who were
struck by the truck on
Sat-urday in Lake Hallie,
includ-ing the name of a fourth girl
who survived but was in
critical condition at a
hospi-Daniel Sokup said thepickup, a black Ford F-150,crossed a lane and veeredinto a roadside ditch, strik-ing the victims Other mem-bers of the troop were pick-ing up trash from the oppo-site shoulder
The 21-year-old driver,Colten Treu of ChippewaFalls, sped off but later sur-rendered and will be chargedwith four counts of homi-cide, Sokup said
It was unclear Sundaywhether Treu had retained
an attorney
Sokup said it was not mediately known whetherthere were other factors thatmight have led the driver to
im-leave the road
Cecily Spallees, a
person-al care attendant at a grouphome near the crash site,told the newspaper thatdrivers regularly speed onthat stretch of road, whichquickly changes from a 55-mph to a 35-mph zone
“I’m always telling one of
my residents that heshouldn’t walk this strip atnight,” Spallees said “It’snot safe.”
Troop 3055’s regionalcouncil, the Girl Scouts ofthe Northwestern GreatLakes, expressed its condo-lences on Facebook and said
a vigil would be held Sundayevening at the girls’ school
Town mourns 3 Girl Scouts and 1 adult killed by truck
Trang 14A14 M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 W S C E L AT I M E S C O M
“This is about the haves
and the have-nots,” said
An-thony S Ford, who was
elected last year as
Stock-bridge’s first African
Ameri-can mayor “If this goes
ahead, it will disenfranchise
more than half of the
resi-dents of Stockbridge who
don’t get a chance to vote It
will devastate the city and
cut it in half.”
If Eagle’s Landing
man-ages to wrestle away the
southern portion of
Stock-bridge — a section that
in-cludes its most affluent
resi-dential pockets as well as its
main commercial corridor
that brings in nearly $5
mil-lion of the city’s $9-milmil-lion
annual revenue — Ford has
warned the city would be
forced to impose a new
prop-erty tax on remaining
resi-dents
Opponents say a
suc-cessful referendum drive
could have repercussions far
beyond the Atlanta
met-ropolitan area
“This is much bigger than
the city of Stockbridge,” said
Arthur Christian, 49, a
finan-cial project manager who
runs the ballot committee,
Citizens to Keep
Stock-bridge Together “It would
end up being a tool to wrestle
political and economic
power from communities in
general and African
Ameri-can communities in
particu-lar.”
Christian, who is
origi-nally from Chicago but
set-tled with his wife, Yvette, in
Stockbridge 15 years ago, is
among the critics who think
the secession movement is
born of a desire to hold on to
white political power He
also worries that the ation of Eagle’s Landingwould raise the cost ofStockbridge city servicesand make it harder for himand his neighbors to selltheir homes
cre-“Southerners don’t likethings to be ugly out in theopen, but the intent is ugly
on the inside,” he said
Backers of Eagle’s ing counter that their aim isnothing more than to lurenew fine dining and retail to
Land-a freshly coined communitywith a median household in-come of about $128,000 —more than double that ofStockbridge
Imagine, they tell theirneighbors, a Whole Foods or
a Trader Joe’s, a CaliforniaPizza Kitchen or a CapitalGrille
They also push stronglyagainst accusations thatthey are seeking racial sepa-ration, pointing out thatwhites will hardly controlEagle’s Landing The pro-posed city, population 17,000,would be 47% black, 39%
white, 8% Asian and 6% panic
His-“I don’t look at this as ablack or white issue; I look at
it as an issue that would efit all,” said Charles Mar-shall, an African Americanresident of the Eagle’s Land-ing subdivision who sup-ports the creation of a newcity With minority residentsthe majority, the 68-year-olddistrict manager of an auto-motive company said he wasconfident of a diverse coun-cil board
ben-A new city brandedaround the community’s ex-clusive country club and golfcourse, he says, might at-
tract corporate quarters and high-end re-tail, spurring growth acrosssouth metropolitan Atlanta
head-— an area traditionally glected as growth concen-trates in the northern sub-urbs
ne-At the same time, shall said he understandswhy many other AfricanAmericans are wary: Manysupporters of cityhood arewhite, they have higher in-comes and the initiative waspushed through the GeorgiaLegislature by Republicanswho do not represent thedistrict
Mar-“It’s gotten a little tribal,”
Marshall said “I’m trying toget everyone to look beyondthat.”
For more than a decade,rich, white pockets of metroAtlanta have led a nationalmovement to form new citiesout of unincorporated land
in an effort, they say, forgreater control, more effi-cient government and lowertaxes But this could be thefirst time a new city wouldtake an existing city’s landwithout all the residents ofthe existing city having avote
“People will be voting onhow to pull out a big knifeand cut this city in half,” saidMichael Leo Owens, associ-ate professor of political sci-ence at Emory University “Ifyou’re going to break apart acity, if you’re going to put it to
a vote, the fair way to do that
is to allow everyone affected
to participate.”
That was one reason theSan Fernando Valley did notbreak away from the city ofLos Angeles in 2002 Whilejust over 50% of Valley voters
approved secession, an whelming majority of voterselsewhere in the city votedno
over-Georgia’s law is different
This year, the Legislaturepassed two bills that wouldamend the charter of Stock-bridge and create a charterfor the city of Eagle’s Land-ing, allowing about 9,000residents in the southernend of Stockbridge to vote tobreak away from the 100-year-old city and join forceswith residents of unincorpo-rated Henry County Voting
is limited only to thosewithin the boundaries of theproposed city
Although proponents ofEagle’s Landing dismiss theidea that race has anything
to do with their new city, ens said the collective voice
Ow-of the white electorate in themore affluent city would bemuch stronger than it would
be in Stockbridge
“This is the South still,”
he said “One could arguewhat you heard out of peo-ple’s mouths is exactly what
is going on: It has nothing to
do with race, and is aboutclass and growth But giventhat class and race intersect,particularly in a place likeStockbridge, it’s hard tothink this is not about race
at all.”
Attorneys for bridge have filed a flurry ofstate and federal lawsuits,claiming the new city wouldprevent Stockbridge frompaying back millions of dol-lars of debt it took on to build
Stock-a new City HStock-all, whichopened in 2009, as well as vio-late the Voting Rights Act of
1965 and the equal tion clause of the 14th
protec-Amendment So far, theyhave not been able to haltthe referendum, thoughsome legal claims remainpending
While advocates forStockbridge say the new citywould probably be responsi-ble for its share of Stock-bridge’s municipal bonddebt and have to impose aproperty tax, those champi-oning Eagle’s Landing havevowed not to impose such atax, and they say it is tooearly to determine whattheir share of the debt wouldbe
“A lot of things have to benegotiated,” Consiglio, 63,chairwoman of the Eagle’sLanding Educational Re-search Committee
Although Consiglio, wholives in unincorporatedHenry County, complainsStockbridge’s leaders havefailed to provide basic serv-ices and let down high-endneighborhoods with poorcity planning, she says herpush for cityhood is lessabout Stockbridge than giv-ing the area an economic
jolt
“If we have a city, we cancontrol our destiny and con-trol what comes in and what
it looks like,” she said “Wefelt we didn’t have that Wewanted an economic boostfor our area.”
Not everyone who lives inthe proposed city, though,agrees
Marilyn Flynn, a retiredspeech therapist who lives inthe Windsong Plantation, asubdivision within theboundaries of Eagle’s Land-ing, said she would voteagainst the new city becauseshe did not trust the motives
of those spearheading theproject, whom she sus-pected of being in cahootswith real estate developers
“It’s greed,” said Flynn,who is white “Now thatblacks are in the majority,they’ve lost control of themoney, the power Theywant to get back politicalcontrol.”
As a retiree on a limitedincome, Flynn, 84, worriedthe new city would make ittoo expensive for her to re-main Some of her neigh-bors, she said, seem to be-lieve creating a new citywould bolster their status,regardless of the plight oftheir neighbors
“They like the white linentablecloths and betterstores; they think that willmake them better people,”she said “They think that’stheir goal — to increase thevalue of their houses withoutany consideration of thepeople they’re going tohurt.”
jenny.jarvie@latimes.comTwitter: @jennyjarvie
Affluent residents want to split town
VIKKI CONSIGLIO, a leader of the Eagle’s Landing city proposal, says its aim is to attract more upscale amenities to the developing suburb southeast of Atlanta
Jenny Jarvie Los Angeles Times
[City, from A1]
‘If this goes ahead, it will disenfranchise more than half of the residents of Stockbridge who don’t get a chance
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Trang 15-After months of stalling and
whining, officials in Orange
County have finally developed
plans to provide shelter for
hun-dreds of homeless people, many
of whom were removed from encampments
along the Santa Ana River trail earlier this
year That’s a meaningful step forward; at
the time the rousting began, officials had no
plan for where people should go There were
not enough emergency shelters available,
and the largest of them was a converted bus
terminal that looked and felt more like a
ref-ugee camp
Under pressure, Orange County cities
eventually began proposing sites for more
shelters, but they were then cowed by angry
residents and dropped their plans Or they
proposed sites in remote, inaccessible
loca-tions — including a forest and a canyon
Spurred by several lawsuits and a federal
judge who threatened to bar the city
govern-ments from enforcing their anti-camping
or-dinances, however, a number of cities in the
county submitted some feasible plans to the
court last Monday
Anaheim is working with the Salvation
Army on a roughly 200-bed project that will
be constructed out of modular units An
ad-ditional 125 beds will be provided in a
ware-house on private property that will be
con-verted to a two-story shelter, offering some
private bedrooms and some shared
quar-ters The city of Tustin will be opening a
50-bed shelter The city of Costa Mesa is
plan-ning a shelter for a similar number Thirteen
cities in the northern part of the county are
working together to open two shelters with a
total of 100 to 200 beds next June
The shelter that will open the soonest —
and that has earned praise from the U.S
District Court judge handling the Orange
County cases, David Carter — is a 200-bed
facility being constructed in a large
com-mercial building in Santa Ana The shelter,
which is expected to open before
Thanksgiv-ing, will be funded by the city of Santa Ana
and run by a service organization called
Mercy House It will offer common rooms for
gathering and dining, accommodations for
pets, space for some belongings, a separate
area for families and couples, and what
offi-cials have described as men’s and women’s
“dormitories.” In fact, that just means open
areas with beds, according to a Santa Ana
spokesperson
Orange County officials should keep this
in mind: They can’t simply force homeless
people off the streets and into shelters The
more warehouse-like the shelter, the less
privacy it offers and the less safe it seems,
the less homeless people will want to live in
it and work with the service providers there,
and thus the longer the homelessness
prob-lem will endure
The one bridge shelter in L.A that has
already opened has only 45 beds, each of
them shielded to some degree by partitions
Most of the bridge shelters in L.A will be
larger than that — the proposed shelter for
an expansive bus yard in Venice will have 154
beds — but the plan is to offer some
sem-blance of sleeping cubicles, not an armory
filled with beds Officials should think about
that as they design more shelters
Going forward, elected officials still must
prove that they can stand firm in the face of
whatever uproar may come from residents
Most of the locations of the planned shelters
are undisclosed, but that won’t stay the case
for long And so far, no cities in the southern
part of the county have submitted plans for
shelters in their areas That’s untenable All
parts of the county have to contribute to
sheltering its homeless population
Also, even as they continue to expand the
number of emergency shelter beds, it is
im-perative that county officials focus on
build-ing or findbuild-ing enough permanent housbuild-ing
for its estimated homeless population of
nearly 4,800, about 2,600 of whom are
un-sheltered To their credit, most of the cities
proposing new shelters have said the goal
will be not just to get people out of the rain
(or whatever the coming winter brings) but
to get them into services and ultimately into
permanent housing
But that promise of a more stable life
means more than just connecting people to
counselors Orange County officials
esti-mate that they need 2,700 units of
support-ive housing for homeless individuals and
families The county should take the sense
of urgency it is now showing toward shelter
beds and focus it on creating permanent
housing as well
O.C officials
take a step on
homelessness
Several cities in the county get
started on shelters, but they still
need plans for permanent housing.
differ-ence eightyears make
On the eve ofthe 2010 mid-term election, career-endingdefeat loomed over dozens ofDemocrats who’d voted for theAffordable Care Act, derisivelybranded “Obamacare” at thetime In 2018, Republicans, thetarget of voter rage, are scram-bling to reassure constituentsthat they’ll save — even extend
— key features of the ACA
For example, last week ho’s right-wing RepublicanGov Butch Otter endorsed aballot measure that would ex-tend Medicaid coverage to morethan 60,000 of his state’s low-in-come residents The federallyfunded expansion of Medicaid,let us recall, was one of theACA’s most contentious com-ponents And, in the end, everysingle Republican congress-man and senator voted againstthe final bill Now a Republicangovernor in Idaho is all for it
Ida-As Barack Obama’s dency has begun to recede intothe mists of time and the deliberate misrepresentationsabout the ACA have subsided, amajority of Americans havewarmed to the healthcare law,and a supermajority to some ofits particulars That took sometime
presi-In 2015, when the SupremeCourt upheld the act’s constitu-tionality, Chief Justice John G
Roberts Jr consoled his fellowconservatives by inserting aproviso in the court’s decisionthat said states didn’t have toextend Medicaid eligibility Innear lockstep, Republican-con-trolled states refused the Medi-caid extension — and the fed-eral funds that went with it
Tuesday, three of those redstates are voting on initiatives
to do an about-face: Idaho,Utah and Nebraska Therehasn’t been public polling in Ne-braska, but surveys in Idahoand Utah show the measureswell ahead Also on Tuesday,Montana will vote on whether tocontinue the Medicaid expan-sion it adopted in 2015 If all fourmeasures pass, that wouldleave just 11 states where Re-publican leaders have deniedfederally funded medical insur-ance to their fellow citizens
Medicaid expansion isn’t theonly piece of Obamacare thatAmericans have come to sup-port Democratic candidatesacross the nation are poundingthe drum on protecting peoplewith preexisting conditions
The issue appears to be ing Polling from the KaiserFamily Foundation this sum-mer found that 63% of Ameri-cans — and 49% of Republicans
work-— said a candidate’s position onguaranteeing coverage for pre-
existing conditions was either
“the single most important tor” or a “very important fac-tor” in determining their vote
fac-The poll also showed that amajority of Americans (includ-ing 58% of independents) didn’twant the Supreme Court tostrike down the ACA either
(Earlier this year, a group of publican attorneys general, led
Re-by Ken Paxton of Texas, revivedtheir efforts to have the ACA de-clared unconstitutional.)There are three lessons todraw from this The first is thatwhen right-wing media and op-portunistic Republicans aren’tfilling the public’s heads withendlessly repeated lies, theAmerican people can figure outwhat’s good for them When theACA was still before Congress,the right’s allegations that itwould create “death panels” todetermine who should live anddie were constantly pollutingthe airwaves Eight years later
— with no death panels in sightand with the right now directingits falsehoods at refugees fromCentral America — the merits
of Medicaid expansion and thepreexisting condition guaran-tee have become obvious tomost Americans
The second lesson is that itwas never the “care” part ofObamacare that really rousedthe right’s anger It was the
“Obama” part An AfricanAmerican Democratic presi-
dent was an affront to theright’s sense of national iden-tity, so all of Obama’s handi-work came to be viewed as an af-front as well And if Americanswere insufficiently outraged,the Murdoch empire and its ilkwere there to stoke their angerwith deceitful allegations.And third, left to their owndevices, Americans supportprogressive economic ideassuch as an adequate safety net,guaranteed access to medicalcare, affordable college and liv-ing wages That’s why the righthas abandoned its old feverdreams of repealing Social Se-curity and Medicare That’s alsowhy some Republican mem-bers of Congress are about tolearn that voting to repeal Oba-macare over and over again isabout to speed them to an earlyretirement after election day.Voters, it appears, are conven-ing a political death panel oftheir own
Harold Meyersonisexecutive editor of theAmerican Prospect He is acontributing writer to Opinion
Coming around on Obamacare
By Harold Meyerson
ENTER THE FRAY BLOG
Gun suicides far outpace gun homicides Here’s why that statistic matters.
No shady super PACs or dog whistles required.
Trump owns his Willie Horton moment.
20 years after his murder, Matthew Shepard is still under attack.
Find these posts at latimes.com/Opinion.
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You may not have
no-ticed, but there were
no televised debatesbetween the candi-dates running forthe two most important electedoffices in California this year
Gavin Newsom, the cratic lieutenant governor andgubernatorial nominee, finallyagreed to one debate with hisRepublican challenger, JohnCox, which took place in earlyOctober on KQED, a public ra-dio station in San Francisco
Demo-Sen Dianne Feinstein, who
is seeking a fifth full term in theU.S Senate, also agreed late inthe game to a “conversation”
with her challenger, state Sen
Kevin de León, that was ated by the Public Policy Insti-tute of California and madeavailable by live stream
moder-But otherwise, the leadingcandidates in both races, New-som and Feinstein, managed toavoid any major debates withtheir opponents, citing sched-uling difficulties and previouscommitments and offering justabout every excuse for minimiz-ing their exposure to voters
As a result, most Californiavoters did not get a chance toobserve the candidates engageeach other side by side Wedidn’t get a real opportunity tocompare the nuances of their
body language, their facial pressions and, most important,their less scripted views on ahost of issues about which atelevision debate moderatorwould have asked
ex-This might fly in Rhode land But California is nearly1,000 miles long, and home tosome 40 million residents Ourstate does not lend itself to re-tail campaigning, where candi-dates go door to door or meetwith voters in small groups Be-tween continuous fundraisingevents and rallies, there’s sim-ply not enough time to conductenough of these parochial activ-ities for a significant portion ofthe state’s voters to meet thecandidates in person
Is-With no TV debates, votersare left to rely on press cov-erage And though newspapers,radio news, local TV news andeven social media cover somedistance, they do not offer thesame kind of exposure and op-portunity to compare candi-dates that televised debates do
There’s a simple fix to thisproblem: When it reconvenes inDecember after the midtermelection, the state Legislatureshould create a California De-bate Commission
The body could be posed of several members, per-haps five to seven, who have ex-perience in politics In electionyears when the governorship or
com-U.S Senate seats are on the lot, the commission should planand carry out three post-pri-mary televised debates, to beheld in different locationsthroughout the state These de-bates ought to be broadcast live
bal-on TV across the state, but theyshould also be available forstreaming any time thereafter
Scheduling the debatesshould be done early in the year,which would allow the candi-dates sufficient time to cleartheir calendars The commis-sion should determine the de-bate lengths, formats, topics,moderators and any other el-ements related to the meetings
All these things should be doneindependent of candidate de-mands in order to protect theindependence and integrity ofthe commission
This idea is not new, by theway Several states — includingUtah, Washington and Ohio —have their own versions of debate commissions
To those who would arguethat the state should not be inthe debate business: Why not?
California has seemingly less rules for its politicalparties, for political campaignsand for financial reportingaround such campaigns Thesematters pertain mostly to thecandidates for elected office inCalifornia and their electioncampaigns Televised debates
end-would benefit California’s ers It’s only reasonable that the
vot-state meet this critical need
We can also expect ance to creating a debate com-mission from candidates whohappen to be incumbents orjust comfortably ahead in thepolls Such candidates could re-tain the right to refrain fromparticipating in televised de-bates — but they would do so attheir political peril, especially ifthe commission places anempty chair bearing his or hername on stage
resist-California is not a typicalstate It’s the largest in thecountry, with the fifth-largesteconomy in the world It’s an in-cubator of new ideas that go on
to transform the entire world,and which therefore warrant se-rious discussion
Given California’s role mestically and abroad, itselected officials have outsizepower to shape policy and lives.Californians deserve sufficientexposure to the individuals whoseek those elected offices
do-We should not have to ask.The candidates are asking forsomething far more precious,after all: our votes
Larry N Gerstonis anemeritus professor of politicalscience at San Jose State andthe author of “Reviving CitizenEngagement.”
Make debates the rule
By Larry N Gerston
CALIFORNIA’S CANDIDATESfor governor, Lt Gov Gavin Newsom, left, and John Cox, held one radio debate
Rich Pedroncelli Associated Press
E XECUTIVE C HAIRMAN Dr Patrick Soon-Shiong
E XECUTIVE E DITOR Norman Pearlstine
D EPUTY M ANAGING E DITORS
Sewell Chan, Colin Crawford
A SSISTANT M ANAGING E DITORS
Len De Groot, Shelby Grad, Mary McNamara, Angel Rodriguez, Michael Whitley
Opinion
Nicholas Goldberg E DITOR OF THE E DITORIAL P AGES
F O U N D E D D E C E M B E R 4 , 18 81
Trang 16A16 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2018 WSCE LOS ANGELES TIMES
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WE NEED LEADERS WHO REPRESENT OUR CONCERNS.
FRANK SCOTTO FOR ASSEMBLY
EACH YEAR THE CALIFORNIA STATE LEGISLATURE VOTES FOR A BUDGET THAT
AUTHORIZES SCHOOL SPENDING.
YEAR AFTER YEAR, THE LEGISLATURE
HAS VOTED TO SPEND
IN PER PUPIL FUNDING THAN STUDENTS
IN LA’S SOUTH BAY
Our current Assemblymember, Mr Muratsuchi, has voted four times (2013,
2014, 2017, 2018) for state budgets that dictate that more of our tax dollars go
to schools across the state than stay here in the South Bay and Los Angeles
benefiting our kids.
In survey after survey, SF Bay Area employers list the quality of local schools as
the reason for locating good career paying jobs there While many employers
have left the South Bay.
!
$1,635 MORE
On November 6, use your vote to improve our schools and make our tax dollars work for our kids, our community, and our economy.
Trang 17CALIFORNIA M O N D AY , N O V E M B E R 5 , 2 0 1 8 :: L AT I M E S C O M / C A L I F O R N I A
B
VISALIA, Calif — With only
65 members, Congregation
B’Nai David is so small that it
doesn’t have a full-time rabbi
Once a month, a student
rabbi drives up from Los
Ange-les, but more often than not
members of the community
lead the services, and make sure
the lights stay on and the
build-ings don’t fall into disrepair
Members of the
congrega-tion’s executive board gathered
in the temple’s library
Wednes-day to set the agenda for the
next meeting Vice President
Norm Goldstrom led the
dis-cussion, which was mostly
de-voted to who would be
responsi-ble for bringing food to future
gatherings
Then the conversation
turned to a subject that had
suddenly gained new relevance
and urgency: security
Days earlier, a gunman had
killed 11 worshipers in a
syna-gogue in Pittsburgh’s Squirrel
Hill neighborhood, the historic
hub of the city’s Jewish
commu-nity The mass killing is believed
to be the deadliest anti-Semitic
attack in U.S history
“This guy walked in there
with a couple of pistols,” said
Treasurer Phil Appelbaum,
who arrived here in the 1980s
The suspect, Robert Bowers,
pleaded not guilty last week to
multiple counts of murder, hate
crimes and other federal
charges that could put him on
death row
“What could it hurt to have
an extra pair of eyes?”
Appel-baum said
Goldstrom had already been
planning a larger discussion
about security and was even
considering applying for a grant
from the Department of
Home-land Security With the events of
the last week, a vigil planned for
CLARK ROLLINis held by his mother, Krista, during a celebration of Shabbat at Congregation B’nai
David in Visalia, Calif The temple has been defaced with anti-Semitic graffiti twice through the years
Photographs by Gary Kazanjian For The Times
Pittsburgh resonates
in the Central Valley
Security takes on new urgency at tiny B’Nai David in Visalia
KEREN FRIEDMANteaches Hebrew at the Sunday school She spentmore than a decade living in Israel before making her way back to Visalia
That changed last year,when Republican Rep MimiWalters voted to repeal theAffordable Care Act as Ad-ams watched live on C-Spanfrom her home in Tustin
News cameras showed asmiling Walters taking a cel-ebratory selfie in the WhiteHouse Rose Garden afterthe vote on the Obama-erahealthcare law
That, Adams said, madethings personal After shewas diagnosed with multiplesclerosis in 1999, Adams losther small business as herhealth deteriorated and
eventually could no longerafford her health insurancepremiums For three years,the single mother was unin-sured and unable to gettreated for her MS — untilthe Affordable Care Actkicked in And her congress-woman had voted to take itaway
“I told people, she’s got abull’s-eye on her back nowfrom me,” Adams recalled
In this midterm seasonwith the control of the Houseand the fate of the Afford-able Care Act at stake, Ad-ams is telling her story to ev-eryone who will listen She’stold it in online videos, in anewspaper op-ed and infront of crowds She spoke at
For many, the election battle
In lawmaking,
politicians
listen to the
people first
Yes, they really
do But people
need to speak
up to be heard
And too often
they’re mute
Then big money talks
That’s the most common
influence on lawmaking
because citizens usuallyaren’t pressing politiciansand threatening their ca-reers Unless that happens,lawmakers automaticallyyield to labor unions or oilcompanies or any interestthat’s a friendly bankroller
at election time
Citizens have an tunity to speak up Tuesdaywhen U.S House and legis-lative seats are filled on theCalifornia ballot, along withopenings for the U.S Sen-ate, governor and other
oppor-statewide offices
For added oomph totheir voices, voters shouldfollow up by constantlybadgering the politiciansafter they take office
People always possessthe most potent politicalpower — if they use it
This came to mind lastweek as I called veteranpolitical operatives to askwhat they were looking for
in the California elections
There was skepticismabout a spectacular “blue
wave” of Democraticstrength emerging in Cali-fornia Anyway, how would
it be detected? A blue waverolled on shore a decade agoand has gotten steadilystronger
“California doesn’t need
a blue wave It’s alreadyunderwater,” says Republi-can consultant RichardTemple
For the wave to intensify,certain things must happen
First, Latinos finally need to
com-Kent Nishimura Los Angeles Times
Central Valley and SouthernCalifornia, rival candidatesfocused the waning hours oftheir campaigns on the mostrudimentary of chores: en-suring supporters cast theirballots
The candidates — ormost of them, anyway —walked precincts, mannedphone banks, revved up cof-fee- and pizza-fueled volun-teers and stood in front of TVcameras urging anyonewithin earshot to vote fortheir party and its slate ofcandidates, of course
“Can you imagine GavinNewsom being our gover-nor,” Young Kim, who is run-ning against Cisneros, said
at a Saturday rally in land Heights alongside JohnCox, the GOP gubernatorialhopeful “Can you imagineGil Cisneros being your rep-resentative?”
Row-The crowd respondedwith loud boos and cries of
“Noooo!”
In Simi Valley, Katie Hillturned to actress KristenBell in her bid to oust Re-publican Rep Steve Knight
of Palmdale
The star of “The GoodPlace” and “Veronica Mars”told a crowd of 150 Demo-cratic volunteers that she’dknown Hill for more than adecade through her supportfor PATH, a Los Angelesnonprofit that provides
Gil Cisneros didn’t justamble into the final weekend
of the midterm election Heran
The Democratic sional hopeful, vying in atight contest for an open Or-ange County seat, began a fi-nal flurry of get-out-the-voteactivities by participating inthe O.C Pumpkin Run, a 5Kcharity race in Fullerton
congres-Immediately after, still inrunning clothes, Cisnerosraced to a Buena Park unionhall to address more than 100supporters gathered tomake phone calls and knock
on doors on his behalf
“I’m a little dressed,” the 47-year-oldCisneros said, “but right nowwe’re in the fourth-quarter,two-minute drill It’s aboutgetting people out to vote.”
under-Democrats need a gain of
23 seats to flip control of theHouse on Tuesday, thrust-ing California — with at least
a half-dozen strongly petitive races — to the fore ofthe political fight
com-In a final dash across the
In final hours, a campaign blitz
By Christine Mai-Ducand Michael Finnegan
[SeeFlurry, B5]
House hopefuls rev up supporters, run 5Ks and canvass districts
as election draws near.
■ ■ ■ DECISION CALIFORNIA ■ ■ ■
The pivotal battles for control of the House
latimes.com
/politics/elections
Go online for earlier articles
in this series looking atissues and voter groups key
to the midterm election
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California Atty Gen Xavier
Becerra has become a
pro-lific litigant against the
policies of Republican
Presi-dent Trump, suing the
administration 44 times
since the Democrat was
appointed as the state’s top
lawyer nearly two years ago
Now, in his first
state-wide contest, Becerra faces
a challenge in Tuesday’s
election from Republican
Steven C Bailey, a retired
judge
Becerra, 60, represented
a Los Angeles-area district
in Congress for 24 years
before Gov Jerry Brown
appointed him in December
2016 to fill the vacancy
cre-ated when Kamala Harris
was elected to the U.S
Sen-ate He lives in Sacramento
The son of immigrant
parents, Becerra is the first
Latino to serve as attorney
general in California history
One of his major court
bat-tles with the Trump
admin-istration has been over the
president’s attempts to step
up enforcement of federal
immigration laws
Bailey, 67, served more
than eight years as a
Superi-or Court judge in El DSuperi-orado
County before retiring from
the bench He lives in South
Lake Tahoe He was
previ-ously an attorney in private
practice handling criminal
and administrative law for
19 years, and served as
dep-uty director in charge of
legislation for the state
Department of Social
Serv-ices during the
adminis-tration of Gov George
Deukmejian
Becerra received 45.8% of
the vote in the June primary
and Bailey won 24.5% in a
field of four candidates
Though candidates met
to debate before the
pri-mary, there is no forum
planned before the generalelection The Times askedthe two contenders in sepa-rate interviews to talk abouttheir priorities and how theywould tackle the variousissues facing the state andits Department of Justice
If elected, what would your top priorities be as state attorney general?
Bailey: My No 1 priority
is focused strictly on fornia’s public safety Weneed to have an attorneygeneral who is focused onensuring that gangs andtraffickers and those el-ements in the criminalestablishment are sup-pressed in this state
Cali-And as attorney general
my focus is going to be onthose gangs, those individu-als who are preying on Cali-fornians generally, who aretaking advantage of ourneighborhoods and areattacking our kids and ourgrandkids
Becerra: We’re going to
continue to make publicsafety No 1, going afterlawbreakers, whether it’scrime on the street or thecrime emanating fromWashington, D.C
We’re going to go afterthose who try to violate thelaw and prevent Californiafrom being No 1 We’ll con-tinue that
What is the appropriate role of the state attorney general in responding to the many policy actions taken by the Trump admin- istration? What standard should be used in deter- mining whether to sue the federal government?
Bailey: It’s not the
Trump administrationnecessarily that the attor-ney general ought to befocused on What the attor-ney general needs to befocused on are issues thatare critical to California
The federal governmentdoesn’t do everything right
And there are times when it
is appropriate to bring suit
on behalf of the people ofCalifornia And I will aggres-sively defend California law
in those areas But there areother issues that havecropped up with this attor-ney general that what he islooking for is an appropriatesoundbite
They are political suits that have little value to
California, such as the suit on the border wall
law-Congress had previouslyexempted that wall from theenvironmental regulationsthat he is suing on As such,that lawsuit is borderlinefrivolous I don’t intend towaste California taxpayermoney on frivolous lawsuits
Becerra: We work with
the federal governmentwhen it’s in defense of thepeople of our state and ourcountry, where the interests
of California are being fended And defend Cali-fornia against federal over-reach when the federalgovernment tries to get us to
de-do their job or deny us ourtaxpayer dollars that wepaid into the treasury
We will continue to workwith the federal government
on any number of publicsafety activities We havebeen doing gang takedownstogether We have beenpursuing the illegal growing
of marijuana together Wehave continued our worktogether against those whofraudulently prescribeopioids We will continue towork together to keep Cali-fornians safe
And we will stand up tothe federal governmentwhen it tries to take awayour healthcare under theAffordable Care Act, when ittries to prevent a womanfrom accessing birth con-trol, when it tries to keep atransgender young man orwoman from serving in themilitary and when it comes
to trying to deport the
“Dreamers” in Californiaand throughout the coun-try We are going to stop anyfederal overreach becauseCalifornia under the Consti-tution has a right to do so
What do you see your role being in addressing the Trump administration’s efforts to change and scale back environmental laws?
Bailey: The first thing
you need to do is sit downwith the federal governmentand attempt to resolve theissue before you file a law-suit With this current attor-ney general it’s, ‘[See] atweet out of the WhiteHouse — file a lawsuit.’
My approach to ington will be to go back, sitdown with the appropriateparties and see if we can’tnegotiate a solution Forexample, I am opposed tooffshore drilling here inCalifornia The state ofFlorida successfully negoti-ated themselves out of the[federal offshore] leases,and I think California could
Wash-do the same thing if it didn’ttake the stance that we aregoing to sue the federalgovernment every timethere is a proposed policychange In fact, I think thatdoes harm to California’senvironment when the firstresponse is a lawsuit
Becerra: My job is to
protect the people and thevalues and resources of thisstate On the issue of theenvironment, there is nodoubt that California hasbeen the leader in protect-ing the air we breathe, thewater we drink and makingsure that we leave this place
in a condition so that ourkids can prosper as well
We are not interested inbacksliding So when itcomes to clean car stand-ards, we’re going to defendthose, even though they arenationwide We will protectour interests on the coast ofCalifornia from any offshoreoil drilling We will makesure that we continuetoward clean power plantsand reduce our dependence
on fossil fuel
And so far we have hadpretty much nothing butvictories against the federalgovernment when it comes
to the environment Of our
44 or so lawsuits, more thanhalf have been on the envi-ronment and we’ve had acouple of dozen victories sofar in rulings
The attorney general’s office has been active on the issue of immigration, including defending the state’s “sanctuary” law, which restricts local law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration agents Should the state attorney general continue that legal posture? Why or why not?
Bailey: Frankly I think
the “sanctuary state” law isunconstitutional It’s pro-vided a sanctuary for no onebut criminals It doesn’tprotect immigrants to thisstate, legal or illegal
And in fact, it has had theunintended consequence ofcreating an environmentwhere ICE [Immigrationand Customs Enforcemen-t]and the federal author-ities are forced into theneighborhoods picking uppeople that weren’t in-tended to be picked up, whowere just attempting tofunction as law-abidingindividuals in this state
Obviously, not citizens, butthey are trying to be law-abiding individuals
By virtue of sanctuarystate, some of those peopleare the unintended victims
of the policies of mento And I for one amgoing to fight to protect thecitizens of California
Sacra-I don’t want our borhoods to become moredangerous than they al-ready are, and sanctuarystate is putting our citizens
neigh-at risk
Becerra: We have proved
in federal court that ourstate laws are constitutionaland so we’ll continue toprotect them
We recently won victoriesagainst the federal govern-
ment Federal courts arenow requiring the federalgovernment to send ussome $29 million in fundsthat they were withholdingfrom California becausethey didn’t like that weweren’t doing their job offederal immigration en-forcement for them.And so we are absolutelygoing to continue to defendour state laws every oppor-tunity that we have because
we have that right under theConstitution to protect thegeneral welfare and thepublic safety of the people ofCalifornia
The state attorney al’s office has faced criti- cism over the backlog of more than 10,000 Califor- nians who possess guns despite having been dis- qualified from doing so because of criminal convic- tions or serious mental health issues What will you
gener-do to eliminate or cantly reduce the backlog? Bailey: I would make it a
signifi-priority This attorney eral has not made it a pri-ority The Legislature ap-propriated $32 million and
gen-he got 300 names off tgen-he list.That is a sign of no pri-oritization of that particularlist It’s going to be a No 1priority for me
Becerra: We are going to
continue to work with theLegislature to give us theresources to continue tobring down the number offolks who populate theArmed and ProhibitedPersons System databasebecause what we are finding
is that when we have theresources, we can equip theteams that it takes to go outthere and remove guns frompeople who don’t have aright to possess them.When you can say thatyou have removed 18,000weapons from people whoare dangerous in the lastfive years, that’s pretty goodwork, and without oneincident where anyone’sbeen harmed But we needthe resources to get outthere and do it throughoutthe entire state
Voters legalized growing and selling marijuana for recreational purposes, but industry officials and law enforcement officers have said complex regulations, high taxes and insufficient enforcement against illegal growers and sellers have allowed the black market
to prosper What will you
do as state attorney eral to reduce the black market?
gen-Bailey: Until the black
market is forced out of thestate we are not going tohave a viable, legal business
All we are doing is ing money right now for thecartels, and [that will con-tinue] until the attorneygeneral makes it a priority
mak-to go after the drug gangsand force them out of thisstate Which means thosepeople bringing in largequantities need to be ar-rested, need to be prose-cuted and need to be,frankly, put in prison Thecartels know they are going
to lose a certain number ofpeople We have got to have
as our No 1 priority an effort
to drive those drug gangsout of California
Becerra: We’ve been
working with our federal lawenforcement partners — theFBI, the DEA [Drug En-forcement Administration]and others — along with ourlocal law enforcement part-ners, to try to crack down onthose who would try to plantand harvest marijuanaillegally, often times onnational or state land.We’re going to go afterthose who are dispensingmarijuana or other drugs —
as I mentioned, opioids.Part of what we need to
do is make sure ment is vigorous so we canhave a regulatory frame-work where people who do itthe right way get rewarded,and it doesn’t make it un-competitive for the peoplewho do it the right waywatching those who do itthe wrong way make mas-sive profits We want tomake sure we give peopleincentive to do it the rightway
enforce-patrick.mcgreevy
@latimes.com
Attorney general, rival talk priorities
Becerra and Bailey
agree safety is crucial
but diverge on suing
Trump administration.
PATRICK MCGREEVY
STATE ATTY GEN.Xavier Becerra, center, with retired Judge Steven Bailey, left, and attorney Eric Early at
a candidate forum in May Becerra, a Democrat, will face Bailey, a Republican, in Tuesday’s general election
Luis Sinco Los Angeles Times
Trang 19LATIMES.COM M O N DAY , N OV E M B E R 5 , 2 018 B3
CITY & STATE
ROSEVILLE, Calif —
The only formal office
Jes-sica Morse has ever held is
president of her high school
Key Club
Now the 36-year-old
Democrat is in the final days
of a campaign to unseat U.S
Rep Tom McClintock, a
Re-publican from Elk Grove
who’s spent decades in
elected office
Morse, a former national
security consultant, is going
up against an incumbent
with a reputation as an
anti-tax, limited-government
conservative in a district
with the highest
concentra-tion of Republicans in
Cali-fornia
Although McClintock, 62,
won reelection handily in his
last race, this contest is
rated “likely Republican” as
opposed to solidly
Republi-can by the nonpartisan
Cook Political Report And
Morse has raised $3.2
mil-lion, double the funds pulled
in by McClintock
Morse isn’t the only green
and relatively unknown
can-didate going after an
en-trenched incumbent Many
of the first-timers trying to
flip long-held Republican
seats to the Democrats are
giving incumbents their first
significant challenges in
years
“It has become the norm
in this election cycle,” said
Paul Mitchell, whose firm
Political Data tracks the
state’s electoral trends
“Ev-ery one of the congressional
districts in California is
be-ing headed by Democratic
challengers who have not
run for anything, not even as
much as a school board
race.”
In coastal Orange
County, polls suggest real
es-tate entrepreneur Harley
Rouda is in a virtual tie with
15-term Rep Dana
Rohra-bacher (R-Costa Mesa), who
won his last race by 16
per-centage points Just inland,
UC Irvine law professor
Katie Porter is leading Rep
Mimi Walters (R-Laguna
Beach), who won in 2016 by 17
points, according to recent
polling
And some of the novices
are pulling in eye-popping
sums of campaign cash — in
some districts, dwarfing
Re-publican incumbents’ war
chests — in a state that sits
center stage in the
Demo-cratic Party’s push to flip the
House on Tuesday Nine
first-time candidates
chal-lenging Republican
mem-bers of Congress in
Califor-nia have raised nearly $60
million
In the 25th
Congres-sional District past the
northern edge of Los
Ange-les, Katie Hill, a 31-year-old
former executive director of
a nonprofit providing
hous-ing for the homeless, has
raised more than $7.3 million
as of mid-October,
accord-ing to federal elections
fil-ings That’s nearly triple the
contributions incumbent
Rep Steve Knight
(R-Palm-dale) received in the same
period, about $2.4 million
In another close race,
Central Valley DemocratJosh Harder, a former Sili-con Valley venture capi-talist, had raised more than
$7 million compared withRep Jeff Denham’s $4.5 mil-lion as of Oct 17
The cash boom is cause of, in part, an influx ofmoney to ActBlue, an onlinefundraising tool for progres-sives Outside groups oftenreach out and identify tar-geted races for Democraticdonors from all over thecountry, who might haveotherwise been unfamiliarwith the candidates, and usethe system to direct funds totheir campaigns, Mitchellsaid
be-“It allows nobody
candi-dates to get resources thatwouldn’t be traditionallyavailable to candidates whodon’t have some sort ofspark or celebrity,” he said
In the 4th CongressionalDistrict, Democrats will bewatching Morse’s longshotbid to turn a largely ruralGOP stronghold blue
The district stretchesfrom Sacramento’s north-eastern suburbs up to theNevada border at LakeTahoe, down through theYosemite Valley and the Si-erra Nevada and south toKings Canyon NationalPark Roseville, a prosper-ous suburb of intercon-nected strip malls and far-flung megachurches, is the
most populous city in thedistrict
Democrats have neverwon the seat with its currentboundaries Sen KamalaHarris is the party’s onlycandidate the district hasever favored in a statewiderace McClintock won morethan 62% of the vote in 2016
Kathleen Steinkamp ofRoseville says she was born
a Republican in a family thatdoesn’t cross party lines
But the 27-year-old teachersays she’s fed up with Presi-dent Trump and will buckthe GOP — McClintock in-cluded — at the ballot boxthis year
“We all love America, butwe’re kind of ashamed of it
right now and we don’t reallyrespect it as much,” saidSteinkamp, who supportedTrump in 2016 “I think it’smore important, even as aregistered Republican, tovote for the other party andsay, ‘Hey, this isn’t cool any-more.’ ”
Morse, casting herself as
a middle-of-the-road publicservant, needs disenchant-
ed voters such as Steinkamp
to turn things in her favor Acount of absentee ballots,tallied by Mitchell’s firm,gave Republicans a 14-pointadvantage as of Friday after-noon
Morse has repeatedlyslammed McClintock forvoting to repeal the Afford-able Care Act, among otherkey votes She suggests theveteran congressman, alongtime resident of a citysome 30 miles away from theheart of the 4th District, is apolitical hack who’s out oftouch with his constituents
McClintock, a tea partyRepublican who served 22years in the California Legis-lature and unsuccessfullyran for statewide office fourtimes, says Morse isn’t in aplace to criticize
She grew up about half anhour outside the district andrecently moved back toNorthern California fromWashington, D.C Now shelives in one of the district’sSierra foothill communities
“This is now the thirdelection where I’ve faced acandidate who’s moved infrom another state, cam-paigned against me for be-ing a carpetbagger, beenhandily defeated and then
promptly left,” McClintocksaid
When the congressmanserved as a warm-up act forconservative provocateurDinesh D’Souza at thePlacer County Fairgroundslast month, he was asked for
a prediction on a blue, red orpurple wave
McClintock drew a parison to the widely heldexpectation that HillaryClinton would win the presi-dential race two years ago: “Ican tell you the final twoweeks of this campaign feel
com-an awful lot like the final twoweeks of the 2016 campaign.”Heather Arvin asked Mc-Clintock for a selfie after hewalked off the stage Arvin,
40, often stands outside Clintock’s Roseville office inopposition to a group of libe-ral protesters
Mc-McClintock received a96% rating for his votingrecord last year by theAmerican ConservativeUnion, a 93% rating from theNational Rifle Assn., 5%from the AFL-CIO and azero from Planned Parent-hood Arvin said she sup-ports McClintock becauseshe’s “seen him actually saythings and get them done.”She couldn’t vote for Morse,she said
“She’s a good gal, but I’mjust red all the way,” the Re-publican said “No matterwhat, I’m going to be red.”Morse, who says her con-servative family has lived inNorthern California for fivegenerations and owns land
in a former mining town inPlacer County, rarely men-tions her own party affilia-tion on the campaign trail
In one television ad, sheappears seated in a canoe,rowing on a lake and demon-strating that paddling onlyleft or right — a metaphor fornational partisan fights —creates no forward progress,only spinning in circles Shetalks about working for Re-publicans and Democratsand about taking oaths dur-ing her career to protect theConstitution, not one partyover another
Morse went to graduateschool at Princeton Uni-versity She was hired by theU.S Agency for Interna-tional Development andspent a year in Iraq, andworked for the State De-partment in Washingtonand U.S Pacific Command
in Hawaii
“I’m tired of this politicalrhetoric that defines win-ning as the other party los-ing,” Morse said in an inter-view “Congressman Mc-Clintock is someone whooften talks about the Repub-licans We should be talkingabout our country or ourcommunity.”
But it’s the chance for amajor partisan pickup that’shelped Morse raise money tospread her message SuperPACs reported spending anadditional $860,000 mostly
on TV, print and online adsagainst McClintock or insupport of Morse The onlydisclosed pro-McClintockmoney from independentgroups totals $5,000.The congressman said heand other Republicans fac-ing Democratic challengersare being “buried in cash.”taryn.luna@latimes.comTimes staff writer VictoriaKim contributed to thisreport
Power of incumbency takes a beating
For many politicians,
Jazmine Ulloa Los Angeles Times
KATIE HILL, a former executive director of a homelessness nonprofit, meets avisitor at a rally for the candidate in the 25th Congressional District in Palmdale
Irfan Khan Los Angeles Times
JOSH HARDER, a former Silicon Valley venturecapitalist, greets voters at a home in Modesto as hebids to represent the 10th Congressional District
Max Whittaker For The Times
‘Every one of the congressional districts in California is being headed by
Democratic challengers who have not run for anything.’
— Paul Mitchell,
whose firm Political Data tracksthe state’s electoral trends
HARLEY ROUDAseeks
to unseat longtime Rep
Dana Rohrabacher
Allen J Schaben L.A Times
A 14-year-old student
stood next to his high school
music teacher, repeatedly
used a racial epithet and
threw a basketball at him
The teacher, who is black,
punched the boy in the face
and kept swinging as other
students recorded the
inci-dent with their cellphones
The fight Friday in the
Maywood Academy High
School classroom — video ofwhich has gone viral online
— led to the arrest of teacherMarston Riley, 64, on suspi-cion of child abuse Detect-ives with the Los AngelesCounty Sheriff ’s Depart-ment’s Special Victims Bu-reau are investigating
Students told KTLA thatthe confrontation began af-ter Riley asked the boy toleave the classroom because
he wasn’t wearing a properuniform
Cellphone video from theclassroom shows the boystanding next to his teacher,swearing at him and repeat-edly using racial slurs
“What’s up, bro?” the dent says as he stands closeand throws the basketball at
The two trade punches asother students scramblearound them, some shriek-ing Riley hits the studentnumerous times, and awoman in a yellow safetyvest tries to intervene
The boy was pulled fromthe room by campus staff
The student was taken to
a hospital where he wastreated for moderate in-
juries and released, ing to the Sheriff ’s Depart-ment
accord-Riley was arrested andbooked at the East Los An-geles sheriff ’s station Hewas released Saturdaymorning after posting
$50,000 bail, according toSheriff ’s Department in-mate records
He is scheduled to be raigned Nov 30, authoritiessaid
ar-Riley could not bereached for comment
In a statement, officialswith the Los Angeles UnifiedSchool District said theywere “extremely disturbed”
by reports of the fight
“We take this matter veryseriously and do not con-
done violence or intolerance
of any kind,” the statementread “Los Angeles Unified iscooperating with law en-forcement in investigatingthis incident.”
Crisis counselors and ditional school police pa-trols will be at MaywoodAcademy High on Monday,the district said
ad-On social media, scores ofpeople defended Riley, say-ing that he was pushed tothe brink and that the stu-dent was out of line for usingracial epithets A Go-FundMe page for him hadraised more than $20,000 bySunday night
Some students stood bytheir teacher One student,who did not give his name,
told KTLA that he had Riley
as a teacher in the past and
“had no problem with him.”
“He was a really niceteacher,” the student said “Ialways respected him He al-ways had a really good rela-tionship with every stu-dent.”
Several parents gatheredoutside the school Fridaynight to express their angerover the incident, NBC LosAngeles reported
“Just the fact that he’shitting a child — it’s notright,” one woman told thestation
hailey.branson
@latimes.comTwitter:
@haileybranson
Teacher arrested after fight with student
Caught in viral video,
man lashed out after
teen used slur, threw
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a healthcare roundtable in
Florida and flew to
Pennsyl-vania to work on a
congres-sional campaign
She’s one of the many
people taking part in the
changing conversation over
the healthcare issue As the
Affordable Care Act’s
provi-sions have become reality
and the GOP repeal effort
threatened to take
insur-ance away from people
ben-efiting from it, the law has
gone from a political hot
po-tato for Democrats to a
Re-publican liability Polls have
shown voters nationwide
care deeply about
health-care
“The threat of this law
be-ing repealed crystallized in
some people’s minds how
valuable it really is,” said
Gerald Kominski, a
profes-sor of health policy and
man-agement at UCLA
Kominski, who worked
on the rollout of the
health-care exchange in California,
said that until last year’s
GOP effort, “the debate and
the discussion about repeal
and replace was all kind of
hypothetical Now it’s
be-come a real possibility that
this law is going to be
re-pealed.”
Democrats, targeting
vulnerable Republican
members of Congress, are
making healthcare the
centerpiece of their effort to
take control of the House
Republicans in competitive
races are no longer
trumpet-ing their efforts to repeal
Obamacare, even professing
support for popular parts of
the law they had demonized
for years
Many voters in hotly
con-tested congressional
dis-tricts in California say they
know, or know of, someone
who would be bankrupt, ill
or dead were it not for the
law Those people are
speak-ing up — at rallies, in
cam-paign videos and to
neigh-bors — in these
battle-ground districts, putting a
face to what was once an
ab-stract, amorphous
govern-ment bureaucracy with
un-known consequences
Brandon Zavala of
An-telope Valley is one of those
faces He was 12 when his
mother died of a heart
con-dition he says routine tests
could have caught He says
he didn’t connect the dots as
a teenager but came to
real-ize that if she had been able
to afford insurance, she
could have lived far past theage of 37
Now, 13 years later,Zavala is on doorsteps andphone lines, telling the story
of how his parents decided
to forgo their own health surance to save money, whilekeeping their two sons’ cov-erage About a year after shewent without visits to thedoctor, his mother collapsed
in-in the family’s livin-ing room
“I started realizing itwasn’t an accident, it wasn’t
a mistake, it wasn’t God ing her home,” he said “No
call-We didn’t have health ance and she couldn’t get thebloodwork she needed.”
insur-This election cycle,Zavala has organized rallies,trained volunteers andlaunched canvasses to getRep Steve Knight (R-Palm-dale) booted out of office forhis vote to repeal the health-care law Zavala supportsDemocrat Katie Hill, whohas talked about the impor-tance of affordable health-care Hill also has firsthandexperience — her husbandhad a medical emergencywhile he was uninsured be-
tween jobs and ended up
$200,000 in debt
“I will never forgive theRepublican Party for cre-ating an environment wheremore 12-year-olds have tobury their mother,” Zavalasaid
Just before the 2010midterm election, when thehealthcare overhaul was ahot-button issue fueling therise of the tea party, Oba-macare was viewed unfavor-ably by slightly more Ameri-cans than those who ap-proved, and a third of Re-publican ads mentionedhealthcare Now opinionshave flipped and more thanhalf of Democratic ads toutcandidates’ positions onhealthcare, according to theWesleyan Media Project
Republicans are bling to shore up theirhealthcare platforms byvowing to protect peoplewith preexisting conditions,embracing a marquee pro-tection of the health law theyhave been trying to get rid offor years
scram-In September, Knightsponsored a bill to maintain
protections for preexistingconditions, joined by a slew
of vulnerable House licans including Walters andRep Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa) The websiteGovTrack gives the bill a 4%
Repub-chance of being enacted
Shana Charles, an ant professor of publichealth at Cal State Fuller-ton, said the shift in atti-tudes toward healthcarewas most apparent in howRepublicans are now echo-ing some selling points of theAffordable Care Act
assist-Charles lives in OrangeCounty’s 39th Congres-sional District, where Demo-crat Gil Cisneros is locked in
a tight battle with can Young Kim for the job ofher former boss, Rep EdRoyce Kim voted to repealthe Affordable Care Act
Republi-“Someone like YoungKim, when you listen to hercampaign commercials, shesounds like someone who al-ways loved the ACA,”
Charles said “That’s thelanguage that they’vemoved to.”
Charles said that in the
early days of the healthcarelaw, the prevailing senti-ment was one of fear andconfusion, without a clearcounter-narrative againstRepublican attacks Nowpeople are publicly callingattention to their personalhealthcare stories, she said
Leonard Musgrave, a year-old retired test engi-neer and full-time politicaljunkie, might as well be say-ing “I told you so.”
76-The longtime registeredRepublican — the onlyDemocrat he remembersvoting for is John F Kennedy
— wrote a letter to the editor
of the Orange County ter when the GOP repeal ef-fort gathered steam: “Re-publicans are going to com-mit political suicide by try-ing to repeal and replaceObamacare.”
Regis-“They should just waituntil it collapses on its own,”
Musgrave, who lives in ange, wrote in March 2017
Or-Musgrave, who spendshis days listening to politicaltalk radio as he does wood-working in his garage, saidhe’s sensed the change in
how people talk about theAffordable Care Act “It’sprobably got to the pointwhere people are living with
it and it’s maybe working outfor them I don’t hear a lot ofpeople complaining aboutit,” he said
That hasn’t changed hismind — he fears the health-care law has made the na-tional debt worse As forwhich side has it figured out
on what to do about care, he has little confidence
health-in the whole lot “I don’tthink either one of themknow what to do to solve theproblem,” he said “It’ssomething they can talkabout and throw around.”Musgrave lives in Califor-nia’s 45th District, a long-time Republican strongholdwhere Walters’ challenger,Katie Porter, is champi-oning a government-fundeduniversal healthcare sys-tem
At a healthcare town hall
in Irvine last month, Porter,
a consumer protection torney, said that when sheworked in bankruptcycourtrooms in the early2000s, she saw familieswhose lives had changedovernight after a healthemergency
at-“If you have unlimitedmoney, you already have uni-versal healthcare in thiscountry,” she told the crowd
of medical students and ers
vot-“Make no mistake — thiselection is about the future
of our healthcare system.”Adams sees it that way.The 56-year-old is healthiernow but lives with reminders
of the three years her diseasewent untreated — perma-nent nerve damage in herright eye, leg and foot Moredevastating to her is thethought of what her daugh-ter went through
“I lost three years of beingable to care for my daughter,worrying the whole time, liv-ing in constant panic,” shesaid “I lost those years of mylife.”
In December, she went toWashington to lobby Wal-ters; she met with an aide in-stead and didn’t believe hermessage got through Nowshe’s focused on talking tothose with the power to voteRepublicans out of office
“The only thing I can do istell my story,” she said.victoria.kim@latimes.comTwitter: @vicjkim
Healthcare law now a GOP liability[Healthcare, from B1]
DORYCE CABALLERO,59, left, of Lancaster, Dwyn Valdriz, 35, of Palmdale and Carole Lynn Valdriz, 35, ofPalmdale protest against Rep Steve Knight, a Republican who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act
Francine Orr Los Angeles Times
The pivotal battles for control of the House
Trang 21Elwood Len Doughty passed away at
93 years of age of natural causes Hewas predeceased by his wife of 62years, Mary Joan Doughty, on October
16, 2018
Born in Malvern, Arkansas, Len enlisted inthe Navy in 1943 during World War II He haddistinguished service earning several medals Afterhonorable discharge, Len earned his high schooldiploma and joined his father in the L.A CountyMedical Center Ambulance Service
During this time, Len met the love of his life, MaryJoan Clanton who was in the Los Angeles CountyMedical Center School of Nursing They married in
1956 In 1957 Len joined the L.A County SheriffsDepartment where he served honorably for 27years During his career as a Deputy Sheriff Lenwas a part of the Special Enforcement Bureau andInternal Affairs He retired from the department withthe rank of Sergeant
Len enjoyed camping and road trips across theUSA, Canada and Mexico with family and friends
He and Mary were active members of the WallyByam Airstream Caravan Club, each becomingpresidents of the local chapter and attending manyinternational rallies where Len was the officialphotographer He and Mary traveled abroad to Asiaand enjoyed cruises to Alaska, Hawaii, US PacificCoast, Panama Canal and South America withwonderful friends Len also enjoyed his hobbies,including gardening, landscaping and photography.Len was a loving husband, father, father-in-law,grandfather, great-grandfather, uncle, brother andfriend He is loved and will be missed by his familyincluding children, Len Jr, Ron, Susan, James,Steven, along with 16 grandchildren, five great-grandchildren and a multitude of friends
Services to be held November 9, 2018, 3:00 PM(arrive 2:30 PM) at Forest Lawn-Hollywood Hills
To place
an obituary ad please go online to:
latimes.com/placeobituary
or call 1-800-234-4444
November 21, 1933 - October 30, 2018
BLAND, June
June Bland was born
in Cook, Illinois, onNovember 21, 1933 Sheentered heaven’s gates
on October 30, 2018 June had anunwavering faith in God which showedthrough her kind and gentle spiritand great devotion to her family Shemarried Dr Stephen L Bland on June
18, 1956 in Chicago, Illinois She livedher life to the fullest and enjoyed thesimple pleasures of life while allwaysdisplaying her beautiful smile June issurvived by her husband Dr StephenBland, her children Dr Phillip Bland,Deborah Bland, Dr Jeanette Bland, Dr
Gerard Bland, Eleanor Bland, and Dr
Howard Bland, and ten grandchildren
A mass celebrating her life will beheld at St Brenden’s Church at 310
S Van Ness Ave., Los Angeles, CA, onMonday, November 5, 2018 at 10am
“Therefore you too have grief now;
but I will see you again, and your heartwill rejoice, and no one will take yourjoy away from you.” John 16:22
Jo Worthy Tabacchi, age 88, of SanClemente, California died October 19,
2018, at The Fountains at SeaBluffs inDana Point, California Jo was born inDouglas, Alabama Grew up in Boaz,Alabama, married Leno Tabacchi in
1954 in Anniston, Alabama and moved
to California She raised her family, twodaughters Lee and Lynn in La Mirada,California Jo retired from her job atthe Justice Department and moved
to San Clemente, California wherethey resided for 30 years She enjoyedtraveling the world with her husband
She was a member of St Edward theConfessor Church She was preceded
in death by her husband of 63 years,Leno Tabacchi and her parents,Thomas and Ellen Worthy; sisters,Jimmie Frachiseur, Linda Teal and AnnWorthy; brothers, Thomas Worthyand Luke Worthy She is survived bydaughters and sons-in-law, Lee andGreg Plotts and Lynn and Pat Canning
Funeral services will be held on Friday,November 9th, 2018 at 10 a.m at St
Edward the Confessor, Dana Point,California Interment will be at DouglasCemetery, Douglas, Alabama
O’Connor Mortuary (949) 581-4300 www.oconnormortuary.com
January 21, 1930 - November 19, 2018
TABACCHI, Jo Worthy
OBITUARY
Search obituary notice archives: legacy.com/obituaries/latimes
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Cemetery Lots/Crypts
In Loving RemembranceThose we love are always with us
in gifts that they have shared -theirlaughter, warmth, wisdom and thespecial way they cared
My beloved, I thought of you today,yesterday, and all the days before that
I think of you in silence I often speakyour name Your memory is my lastingkeepsake
I have you in my heart always andforever, for you are a part of me
Sarah married William Max Kull
in 1956 and during their more than
62 years of marriage they movedthroughout California according
to Bill’s USMC postings, eventuallysettling in Corona del Mar, where theyraised their three daughters, Linzee,Marcia, and Carolyn
Sarah was an accomplishedseamstress, gardener, and cook Shespent summers at her Minnesotacabin, transforming wild blueberriesinto her famous pies She was the firstpresident of the Sherman Library andGardens’ volunteer association, and for65+ years was an active member ofKappa Kappa Gamma sorority
Sarah is survived by her husband,Bill; her daughters Linzee (Paul) andgrandchildren Rebecca and Maggie(EJ) and great-granddaughter Freya;Marcia (Gary) and grandchildrenAnna and Karl; Carolyn (Jeff) andgrandchildren Russell and Lindsey(Sean) and great-granddaughterSabrina; sister Marcia MillerDimmel; and sister-in-law MarieHigginbotham She was preceded
in death by her parents and by herbrothers-in-law, John R Dimmel andBill Higginbotham
A celebration of Sarah’s life will
be held beginning at 1 p.m onSaturday, December 8, at the OasisSenior Center, Corona del Mar, with aservice beginning at 1:30 p.m In lieu
of flowers, donations in Sarah’s namemay be made to the Semper Fi Fund
or the Michael J Fox Foundation forParkinson’s Research
January 6, 1929 - October 27, 2018
KULL, Sarah Miller
services to the homeless
Hill, 31, was one of PATH’s
top executives before
launching her congressional
bid
“I actually said to myself
at one point, I was like, ‘Oh
my goodness, is she the
real-life Veronica Mars?’ ” Bell
joked from a platform
out-side a bustling Hill
cam-paign office “Because truly
she’s always fought for the
underdog.”
Knight’s only public
event over the weekend was
a sunrise visit Saturday to
the starting line of the Santa
Clarita Marathon The main
point he’s trying to get
across to voters, the
51-year-old incumbent said during a
speed-walking interview, is
constituent service
“We worked very hard to
make sure that the needs of
this district are being taken
care of,” Knight said
Another embattled GOP
incumbent, Jeff Denham,
stumped with Cox in
Modes-to on Sunday, making little
mention of President
Trump in an area where
Democrats hold a slight
edge in registered voters
Denham’s most
passion-ate pleas were to bring wpassion-ater
to Central Valley farmers
and to build not a wall along
the border with Mexico but
greater storage capacity
“We need to have our water,
and we need to make sure
that we have a candidate
that will fight for the Valley,”
Denham said
His Democratic rival,
Josh Harder, stressed
healthcare, citing Denham’s
vote to repeal the Affordable
Care Act
“Every person you will be
talking to today has a loved
one who would be affected
and hurt by that vote,”
Harder told more than two
dozen people gathered at a
Turlock home for a canvass
kickoff
A gusher of campaign
cash and geyser of boiling
anti-Trump passions have
made Democratic
candi-dates viable in places such
as the Central Valley and
Or-ange County that, normally,
would offer little hope
In Mission Viejo, Katie
Porter appeared alongside
Jon “Bowzer” Bauman of the
1950s tribute band Sha Na
Na, who delivered a pitch
fo-cused on issues affecting
seniors — retirement, Social
Security — before delivering
Wal-Porter, a UC Irvine lawprofessor and first-time can-didate, urged supporters tocampaign without letup
“This election is going to beclose,” she said “If we don’tfight all the way to the finishline, until 8 o’clock on Tues-day, this could slip away.”
At one point, pro-Trumphecklers could be heardshouting from a nearby hill-side “We love Trump,” avoice cried out
“We love him, too Hemakes great fodder,” re-torted Bauman’s nephew,California Democratic PartyChairman Eric Bauman
While Porter attendedraucous rallies, Walters took
a quieter approach
“We’ve been staying onthe phone, turning out thevote,” Walters said during abrief break at her Irvinecampaign headquarters asshe contemplated her pizzachoices before settling onpepperoni and sausage
“The Republicans are thused, the Democrats areenthused We have to get theindependents.”
en-Nearby, Democratichopeful Harley Rouda ex-horted his battalion of vol-unteers not to surrender tofatigue “When you’re out
there knocking on doors andgetting tired,” Rouda toldcanvassers packed into hisCosta Mesa office, “yourdemocracy is at stake.”
His rival in the coastalOrange County district, in-cumbent Republican DanaRohrabacher, brought anIn-N-Out food truck to theparking lot of the local GOPheadquarters to thank vol-unteers The congressmantold a crowd of about 50 sup-porters that outsiders weretrying to undermine localsentiment
“They are shipping ple in from Los AngelesCounty,” Rohrabacher said
peo-“They’ve got mercenariesthat they’ve hired to comedown and try to steal thiselection from the patriotswho actually live here.”
As suspense shrouds eral contests, Republicanshave all but conceded thecontest to fill the seat beingvacated by retiring GOPRep Darrell Issa of Vista
sev-Still, Democrat MikeLevin rallied about 200 peo-ple before they set out
to canvass neighborhoodsaround Oceanside
A majority of the casualand youthful attendees atthe event just blocks fromthe beach were women
They wore T-shirts ing the Sierra Club, defend-ing legalized abortion andcelebrating civil rights icons
promot-Levin moved through the
crowd, posing for graphs with volunteers
photo-“You can see from all thepeople here there is a lot ofenthusiasm for the cam-paign in the last few days,”
he said “I put my faith in theturnout over the polls.”
His rival, Diane Harkey,has been orphaned by theRepublican Party, which isbeing vastly outspent byDemocrats and forced to de-fend a number of candidateswhose prospects, in the esti-mation of GOP strategists,appear far better
In an interview, Harkeysaid she’s gotten “zip” fromthe party and its leaders “Ifyou really thought it was animportant seat, don’t youthink you’d be here?”
Harkey said, questioningthe GOP
But she wasn’t giving up
Addressing a small crowd ofsupporters in the parking lot
of her Carlsbad campaignoffice, Harkey sounded anominous note for Republi-cans “If the seat goes,”
Harkey warned of her test, “so goes OrangeCounty.”
con-christine.maiduc
@latimes.commichael.finnegan
@latimes.comTimes staff writers Mark Z
Barabak, Victoria Kim,Dakota Smith, MayaSweedler and Jazmine Ulloacontributed to this report
Candidates fighting all
the way to the finish line
GIL CISNEROS, a Democrat running in a tight congressional contest for an openseat in Orange County, speaks at a campaign rally last month in Buena Park
Irfan Khan Los Angeles Times
[Flurry, from B1]
vote in numbers closer to
their population size The
so-called sleeping giant
needs to wake up
Latinos are 34% of the
state’s adult population but
account for only 21% of likely
voters, according to the
Public Policy Institute of
California Even worse, they
amounted to just 14% of the
June primary voters
A solid majority of
Lat-ino likely voters, 60%, are
registered as Democrats
The party badly needs them
to cast ballots
Why don’t they?
“It’s a matter of
pri-orities,” Secretary of State
Alex Padilla told me last
year “When you’re trying to
put a roof over your head
and food on the table, you’re
not tuning into the political
debate.”
But Latinos have to be
hearing President Trump
trying to rouse his voter
base with anti-immigrant
bellowing — attacking
birthright citizenship and
the “invasion” by
asylum-seeking migrants from
Central America Last
summer his administration
was yanking children from
their migrant mothers’
arms and separating them
at the border And that wall
The state Legislature
has spent the last two years
trying to galvanize Latinos
by attacking Trump’s
immi-gration policies What else
do Latinos require to coax
them to vote?
“Trump gets them
half-way there, but it’s going to
take something more
aspi-rational,” says Daniel
Zin-gale, senior vice president of
the California Endowment,which promotes expansion
of affordable healthcare forpoor people
“Someone has to offerthem a more positive stake
in the future I run intopeople who say, ‘Yeah, he’sterrible He’s terrorizing mypeople But give me some-thing to vote for.’ ”The implication is thatCalifornia Democratshaven’t been offering pos-itive, realistic ideas, onlylambasting Trump, a validgripe against the partyheard around the country
Zingale has worked forthree governors and was asenior advisor to Gov Ar-nold Schwarzenegger For 10years, he has been trying toinspire habitual nonvoters
to cast ballots
“The same groups thatdon’t vote — the poor, ruralresidents, immigrants,Latinos — get the worsthealth services,” Zingalesays “They have unclean
water, toxic wastes, noclinics, no parks They havemore asthma and morediabetes and less insurance
“If they don’t vote, theydon’t have a voice They’re
on the short end, the last inline in Sacramento for re-sources Two things influ-ence that: political moneyand votes Latinos are notbig political givers likeChevron Their only chancefor a voice is their numbers
And they have not ered that.”
discov-As of Friday, a recordnumber of mail ballots hadbeen turned in from allkinds of voters But it’sguesswork whether thatmeans a heavy turnout
Paul Mitchell, who headsPolitical Data Inc., says 3.2million ballots had beenrecorded, surpassing theearly vote numbers of thelast midterm election in
2014 But 13 million ballotswere mailed out this time,compared with 9 million
four years ago “So it’s tooearly to jump to huge con-clusions,” he says
Once again, Latinos havebeen voting in small num-bers Although they re-ceived 23% of the mail bal-lots, only 14% of all thosereturned were from Latinosentering the weekend
Young adults were ing even more apathetic:
look-They received 25% of themail ballots and had re-turned just 10% of the total,Mitchell says Their votescertainly will be needed tocreate a blue wave
Among millennials —ages 22 to 37 — 51% are regis-tered Democrats, according
to PPIC Nearly one-thirdare Latinos
“Will the youth turnout
be as bad as usual or will itincrease?” governmentprofessor Jack Pitney ofClaremont McKenna Col-lege asks rhetorically
“I’m Irish, so I’m simistic It’s somethingpeople hope for that neverhappens It’s the ‘GreatPumpkin’ of electoral poli-tics.”
pes-The professor explains:
“Younger people aren’t asengaged with civic life,they’re not paying taxes,they don’t have kids inschool and they move a lot
so they need to re-register.”
But everyone votes inone manner or another
Those who cast ballots aretelling politicians that theycare Those who sit it outare saying they don’t — andthe pols won’t care muchabout them either
george.skelton
@latimes.com
Latinos, youths must get loud
ELIZABETH VALDIVIA, program manager at theLeague of Women Voters, says her organization isfocused on improving Latino voter participation
Irfan Khan Los Angeles Times
[Skelton, from B1]
The pivotal battles for control of the House
Trang 23M O N D AY , N O V E M B E R 5 , 2 0 1 8 :: L A T I M E S C O M / S P O R T S
D
What amounted to an11th-hour win wasn’t enough
to save John Stevens’ job ascoach of the Kings
General manager RobBlake has been concernedabout his team’s lack of emo-tional investment and in-ability to play a faster style.With the Kings sinking fast
at 4-8-1, Blake fired Stevensand assistant coach DonNachbaur and named WillieDesjardins interim coach onSunday, about 12 hours after
a 4-1 win against the bus Blue Jackets
Colum-“It hasn’t gone the way weexpect it to, and we haven’tplayed the way we expectedto,” Blake said “What Williewill bring — what we want tobring back — is we want toget the compete level up inour players We’ve got to getthe passion back in thegame We expect fully that
he can right that and take us
in the right direction.”
KINGS FINALLY MAKE A SWITCH
Off to a 4-8-1 start, they fire Stevens and bring in Desjardins as the interim coach.
stand-Out of nowhere, herecame Magic Johnson
He wanted to explain Hewanted to defend
“Everything is just fine inLakerland,” he said, and ofcourse he was smiling
It was not a scheduledinterview It was barely aninterview at all Johnsonmostly spoke on back-ground But he clearlywanted to send a messagethrough myself, BroderickTurner and Tania Ganguliabout last week’s infamousscolding of coach LukeWalton
He wants everyone to
BILL PLASCHKE
Lakers’ shame starts at the top
[See Plaschke, D11]
TORONTO 121, LAKERS 107
Heated argument was ‘no big deal’
Magic Johnson says hismeeting with Luke Wal-ton had no bearing oncoach’s job security D10
NFL :: WEEK 9
NEW ORLEANS 45, RAMS 35
NEW ORLEANS — The Rams’ locker roomwas devoid of long faces No exclamations offrustration pierced the quiet
If anything, after Sunday’s 45-35 loss to theNew Orleans Saints, it seemed as if a long exhalehad calmed the room The crucible of trying tocomplete a perfect season was over
“This game right here might be a blessing in adisguise,” defensive lineman Michael Brockerssaid
It did not play out like one, not on a day whenquarterback Drew Brees stayed to form as a fu-ture Hall of Famer and torched the Rams for 346yards and four touchdowns in front of a delirious73,086 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome
The Rams rallied from a 21-point deficit to tiethe score in the fourth quarter, but the Saintskicked a field goal and Brees sealed the victorywith a long touchdown pass
After eight victories to start the season, theRams learned a hard lesson in reality
And they apparently welcomed it
“We love it,” coach Sean McVay said “Youfind out about yourself when you have a little bit
of adversity … Sometimes setbacks can be ups for comebacks
set-“That’s how we look
RAMS QUARTERBACKJared Goff is caught in a New Orleans celebration after an interception by linebacker Alex Anzalone, second
from left, late in the second quarter, leading to a touchdown by the Saints only 33 seconds later for a 35-14 advantage
Photographs by Wally Skalij Los Angeles Times
ALL SAINTS’ DAY
ALVIN KAMARAof the New OrleansSaints scores over Rams safety John John-son on an 11-yard run in the first quarter
Rams don’t sweat losing a possible perfect season
By Gary Klein
[See Rams, D7]
NEW ORLEANS — Facing the NFL’s
all-time leading passer, the Rams were a
well-rounded defense
Absolutely no corners
Drew Brees picked them apart, leading New
Orleans to a 45-35 victory that not only scuffed
the pristine record of the 8-1 Rams — they’ll get
over that — but also tilted the balance of power
in the NFC, as the Saints would have home-field
advantage if both teams were to run the table
The more pressing issue for the Rams is
their weakness in pass coverage that was
ex-posed by Brees, and Green Bay’s Aaron
Rod-gers the Sunday before That’s troubling with
Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Kansas City’s
Patrick Mahomes in the pipeline, and no
obvi-ous solution in sight The league is set up for
quarterbacks to put up astronomical numbers,
yet the best teams find a way to slow that roll
Yes, the Rams can score like crazy They
were unfazed by an 18-point halftime deficit
against the Saints and roared back to tie the
score 35-35 in less than 11⁄2quarters But if you
can’t stop a good passer, the odds are heavily
against you making it very far in the postseason
The signature
With pass coverage
like this, it will be
open season on L.A.
SAM FARMER
ON THE NFL
[See Farmer, D6]
SEATTLE — He talked about his players
wanting this game, needing this challenge not
necessarily to make a statement but more to
make a point
To themselves
“We knew this was going to be a test, a
four-quarter football game,” coach Anthony Lynn
said “They passed the test.”
The Chargers certainly did Sunday, holding
on to beat Seattle 25-17 in thunderous
Centu-ryLink Field, the boldest stride yet for a team
bent on proving it belongs in the NFL’s upper
echelon
The victory was the Chargers’ fifth in a row,
their longest such streak since 2014 They also
stopped a run of five consecutive road defeats
against opponents with winning records, and
began the season 6-2 for the first time since 2006
“Honestly, that’s a playoff team, right?”
offen-sive tackle Russell Okung said of the Seahawks
“To come on the road in this environment and
win, shows a lot about our character I think this
was a big step forward.”
A four-quarter football game? Actually, it was
more than that, the
Chargers making some noise
Gritty team wins in loud
Seattle for fifth straight, its
longest spate since 2014.
Fake field-goal try a downer
Johnny Hekker can’t get the first downbut TV replays show another story D6