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PE = Performance Evaluation MCP = Manager Continuation Policies HF = Hedge Funds YC = Yield Curve Performance Evaluation Performance Measurement Performance Attribution Performance Appra

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

1 INTRODUCTION

Calculating accounts’

performance based on investment related∆

PE = Performance Evaluation

MCP = Manager Continuation Policies

HF = Hedge Funds

YC = Yield Curve

Performance Evaluation

Performance Measurement Performance Attribution Performance Appraisal

Analyzing sources of return &

importance of those sources

was generated due to skills or luck

 Assessing size & consistency

of accounts relative performance

2 THE IMPORTANCE OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

2.1 The Fund Sponsor's Perspective

 Fund sponsors ⇒ owners of large pools of investable assets

 It provides an exhaustive quality control check of the fund & its constituent parts

 It acts as a feedback & control mechanism

2.2 The Investment Manager's Perspective

return of some benchmark

processes

3 THE THREE COMPONENTS OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

Account ⇒ one or more portfolios of securities managed by one or more investment management organization

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

4.1 Performance Measurement without Intra-period External Cash Flows

= −+

= − − 

defined period of time after considering all external CF (contributions

& withdrawals)

 If contribution is received at the start of the period:

4 PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

4.2 Total Rate of Return

income & capital gains

4.3 The Time-Weighted Rate of Return

period of one unit of money initially invested in the account

& withdrawals made by clients

Not affected by external CF

Advantage/Disadvantage of TWR

occurred

& potentially more error prone

4.4 The Money-Weighted Rate of Return

in the account over the entire evaluation period

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

A/C is valued at beginning & end of the evaluation period

Advantage/Disadvantage of MWR

 Sensitive to size & timing of external CF

over external CF

4.5 TWR versus MWR

performance MWR > TWR

 MWR & TWR provide significantly different results if:

4.6 The Linked Internal Rate of Return

frequent time intervals & then chain links over the entire evaluation period

4.7 Annualized Return



− 1

period < full year

4.8 Data Quality Issues

 Illiquid & infrequently priced assets with heavy external CF activity generally not reliable in nature

5.1 Concept of a Benchmark

portfolio-benchmark

P=M+S+A

5 BENCHMARKS

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

5.2 Properties of a Valid Benchmark

 Unambiguous ⇒ clearly defined identities & weights

 Investable ⇒ passive investment alternative

 Measureable ⇒ return can readily calculate

 Appropriate ⇒ consistent with manager’s style

 Reflective of current investment opinions

 Specified in advance ⇒ known to all interested parties at the start of evaluation period

 Owned ⇒ manager should be aware & accept accountability

5.3 Types of Benchmarks

Absolute

(not investable)

Manager’s Universes

Median manager or fund from a broad universe of mangers or funds as a benchmark

benchmark validity criteria

Advantage

Measureable

Broad Market Indexes

Disadvantages

Broad market indexes as benchmark e.g S&P 500

Style drift Advantages

 Measureable & investable

Style Indexes

Using specific portion of asset category as benchmark

in certain securities

manager’s investment process

Advantages

 Well known & easy to understand

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

Factor Model Based

of return to the returns on an account

 Normal portfolio ⇒ portfolio which has exposures to sources

of systematic risk factors that is typical for a manager

 Difficult to obtain & expensive

to use

same factor exposures can generate different returns

Advantage

Facilitate manager & fund sponsors to better understand manager’s investment style

Return Based Benchmarks

These benchmarks are constructed using the series of a manager &

investment style indexes return

manager’s investment process

required

who rotate among style exposures

Advantages

 Intuitive & easy to use

investable & specified in advance

information regarding account return is available

Custom Security-Based

Reflect manager’s research universe weighted in a particular manner

 Expensive to contract &

maintain

Advantage

validity criteria

 Effective allocation of risk across all the investment managers

 Effective monitoring & control

of investment processes

5.6 Tests of Benchmark Quality

biases relative to the account (Avg historical β

of A/C should be close to 1)

 Correlation b/w A & S should be zero

 Difference b/w (P-M) & S should be highly correlated

Volatility of account’s return relative to a good benchmark should be < than volatility of the account’s return relative to a market index

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

5.6 Tests of Benchmark Quality

similar to those of benchmark

 Systematic bias if A/C’s risk characteristics are always greater or always less then benchmark

poor

purchased/sold for the purpose of periodic rebalancing

 Passively managed portfolio ⇒ low benchmark turnover

Large no of +ve active position ⇒ good custom security based benchmark has constructed

5.7 Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Benchmarks

evaluate HF performance due to short positions

traditional methods to calculate return does not yield reliable results

Hedge Fund Benchmarks

 =  −

 Limitation ⇒ not appropriate if rapidly changing leveraged positions

 Limitations ⇒ assume normal distribution

6 PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

 Macro attribution ⇒ conducted at the fund sponsor level (total fund performance)

 Micro attribution ⇒ carried out at the investment manager level (performance of individual portfolios)

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

6.1 Impact Equals Weight Times Return

 Impact = weight × return

benchmark

6.2 Macro Attribution Overview

6.3 Macro Attribution Inputs

fund & individual managers

 Fund sponsor’s risk tolerance & liabilities

category

Fund Returns, Valuations, and External CF

Computing fund return at individual manager level to evaluate decision regarding manager selection

accurate rate of return

decision-making on the fund’s performance

6.4 Conducting a Macro Attribution Analysis

increasing order of volatility & complexity

contribution of each level to the overall return of the fund

Micro Attribution Components

contributions

at RF

strategy - beginning value

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

Micro Attribution Components

 Fund’s beginning value & external CF are invested passively based on policy allocations

 Return –metric perspective  = ∑   × −  where

 = return on ith asset category

 = weight of asset category i

invested at manager’s benchmark



 ××  −

sum (each manger’s policy proportion of the total fund’s beg value + net external CF) × (manager’s benchmark return – return of the manager’s asset category)

manager according to the manager’s policy allocation

managers’ return – their benchmark return)

Return metric perspective:



 Allocation effects incremental contribution= fund’s ending value-value calculated at the investment managers level

deviate from their policy allocation

6.5 Micro Attribution Overview





! "−"  − #

 Limitation ⇒ as the no of securities in a portfolio the impact of any individual security becomes insignificant

6.6 Sector Weighting/Stock Selection Micro Attribution

 Advantage ⇒ only holdings & their returns are required

to perform attribution analysis

 Limitation ⇒ ignores the impact of transactions

turnover

 Pure sector allocation:

∑ " −"   −

 Within sector selection:

∑ "   −  assumes same sector weight in portfolio as in benchmark

 Allocation selection interaction:

∑ " −"  − 

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

6.7 Fundamental Factor Model Micro Attribution

at the beginning of evaluation period

of the factors

6.8 Fixed-Income Attribution

 ∆ In general level of IR

 ∆ In sector, credit quality, individual security differentials to the Y.C

Factors That Contribute to Total Return of F.I Portfolio

analysis

IR environment

separated into expected & unexpected return

7 PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

 Performance appraisal ⇒ evaluative of investment skill of managers & to make decisions regarding retaining or modifying portion of investment program

manager’s skill

7.1 Risk-Adjusted Performance Appraisal Measures

that predicted by the CAPM

  =   ಷ



ಲ

 Represents the slope of the line b/w RF & the point representing the avg return & β for the security

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

7.1 Risk-Adjusted Performance Appraisal Measures

 & =ಲ  ೑

 ಲ

return trade off

hypnotically portfolio which is created by combining the account with borrowing or lending at Rf so that its SD is identical to the market index

  = +' ಲ   ೑

 ಲ ( )*

Information Ratio

 +, =  ಲ  ಳ

 ಲಳ

outperformed (underperform) the benchmark

7.2 Quality Control Charts

 Assumptions:

 Null hypothesis ⇒ manager has no investment skill

 Confidence band ⇒indicates the range within which the manager’s value added returns is expected to fall

7.3 Interpreting the Quality Control Chart

around horizontal line ⇒ deviations from the benchmark are purely random

manager fall within the confidence band

8 THE PRACTICE OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

Sponsors use qualitative & quantitative factors to evaluate investment managers

8.1 Noisiness of Performance Data

determine truly superior performance

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2013, Study Session # 17, Reading # 41

8.2 Manager Continuation Policy

term of money & time

 MCP ⇒ to  the costs of manager’s turnover & to deal appropriately with future poor performance

procedures to overall managers

8.3 Manager Continuation Policy as a Filter

managers & retain +ve value added mangers

 Null hypothesis ⇒ manager has no investment skill

 Alternative hypothesis ⇒ managers are not zero value added managers

 Type I error ⇒ rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true

 Type II error ⇒ not rejecting the null when it is incorrect

type II error

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