Transportation Systems Planning Methods and Applications 01

Transportation Systems Planning Methods and Applications 01 Transportation engineering and transportation planning are two sides of the same coin aiming at the design of an efficient infrastructure and service to meet the growing needs for accessibility and mobility. Many well-designed transport systems that meet these needs are based on a solid understanding of human behavior. Since transportation systems are the backbone connecting the vital parts of a city, in-depth understanding of human nature is essential to the planning, design, and operational analysis of transportation systems. With contributions by transportation experts from around the world, Transportation Systems Planning: Methods and Applications compiles engineering data and methods for solving problems in the planning, design, construction, and operation of various transportation modes into one source. It is the first methodological transportation planning reference that illustrates analytical simulation methods that depict human behavior in a realistic way, and many of its chapters emphasize newly developed and previously unpublished simulation methods. The handbook demonstrates how urban and regional planning, geography, demography, economics, sociology, ecology, psychology, business, operations management, and engineering come together to help us plan for better futures that are human-centered.

I

Transportation Systems and Theories

of Human Behavior

0273_book Page 1 Friday, October 25, 2002 8:33 AM

© 2003 CRC Press LLC

© 2003 CRC Press LLC

1

Transportation Systems Planning

CONTENTS

1.1 Introduction1.2 Sustainable Transport

Economic and Financial Sustainability • Environmental and Ecological Sustainability • Social Sustainability • Policy Instruments

1.3 An Overview of Trends

Urban Environments • National Levels

1.4 Transportation and Energy1.5 Transportation and the Environment

Climate Change • Air Quality • The Energy Policy Act

1.6 Transport and Safety1.7 Transportation Control Measures1.8 The Future

1.9 The Model Framework

Activity Theory as a Tool for Understanding

transpor-to be assessed and the realization that interdependent systems need transpor-to be studied and modeled in their totality motivates building decision support systems that are increasingly expanded to incorporate pro-cesses and ideas from other related fields For example, the wider acceptance of discrete choice models, which consider the person as a decision unit, motivates the need to provide data about persons These can be data on demographics (age, gender), economics (employment, income), and social situations and roles (e.g., household type, indicators of the role in the household) Production of these data to be used

in forecasting future choices requires one to employ demographic evolutionary methods that produce this information in future years for which an assessment of policy impacts is made Many more examples,

a few of which are included in this handbook, show that we are experiencing an “immigration” of disparate methods from other fields into transportation systems planning In this way, the resulting model systems Konstadinos G Goulias

Pennsylvania State University

are very often the result of a somewhat haphazard amalgamation of methods that have been designed at different levels of scale (person, community, city), based on different behavioral assumptions (e.g., optimizing, satisficing, adaptive, or opportunistic behavior), and estimated with data from different periods or horizons (e.g., a typical day, a given year defined generically, a census decade, and so forth) For these reasons, different models may not be entirely consistent and interoperable, and their predictions are surrounded by large error bands that provide information that is sometimes sufficient for some type

of decision making and other times totally inadequate for any analysis Many of these models, however,

share the same motivation and their ultimate aim is to solve specific transportation problems In this

chapter overviews of these problems and of the most recent issues in designing transportation system planning models to solve the problems are provided

The traditional viewpoint of transport experts and policy makers is that transportation systems exist

to provide for the safe and efficient movement of people and goods in an environmentally responsible manner This definition encompasses not only the benefits to society from a well-designed transportation system, but also the critical issues that we have yet to address and resolve In fact, older transportation planning textbooks and handbooks would define the transportation problem as composed of a few key

dimensions: safety, including fatalities, injuries, and property damage due to accidents; efficiency, optimal allocation of resources in moving people and goods; access, provision of enabling technologies and services

to people that need to reach and use opportunities; comfort, travel in environments without causing unnecessary stress and strain due to noise or other factors; and environmental pollution, production of

contaminants in the air, water, or soil that are at higher levels than naturally found and that cause harm

to animals, plants, and humans Safety, efficiency, comfort, and access have seen a tremendous ment over the last 40 years in all industrialized countries, and they have become valued aspects of transportation systems worldwide Environmental pollution control, however, in spite of the spectacular improvements in internal combustion engines and emission control, appears to be inhibited by an exponential increase in trip making This is particularly acute in the more urbanized environments and

improve-is the motivation behind many policies

This is expanded today, and more recent analyses examine the role transportation systems play in our society as a whole from more integrated and systemic viewpoints In fact, transportation in this approach

is viewed as another medium for economic and social development, and its evolution needs to be “guided” with regulation, education, and market manipulation to maximize its positive effect on economic devel-opment and provide equitable progress and access to opportunities while minimizing its negative impacts

on welfare and the environment (see the examples in Doyle and Hess, 1997; TRB, 2000) Under this somewhat more complex position, the private automobile can be examined in a more critical way and contrasted with many other mobility options that may yield the same benefits but at lower social costs However, for many tangible and intangible reasons and in many situations, the private automobile is the only feasible and available option This may be viewed as a threat (e.g., to the environment), but it also opens the opportunity to view the (private) automobile not only as a tool for economic development, but also as a technological opportunity to advance our moral duty of protecting the environment while developing regions and countries in a sustainable way

These considerations, as expected, are also changing transport-related government positions Past policies, analyses, and actions on transport systems focused on ways to increase the capacity of individual system components such as roads and terminals (ports, airports, stations), with occasional attention to energy and environmental concerns as well as other social impacts Attention was paid to transportation system components if they could be studied as independent units, and policies would target a small portion of the system In addition, decisions were reserved to technical experts, and very little, if any, public input was solicited (see Creighton (1970), who has documented planning work in the 1950s and 1960s) Then, in the 1970s, mainly because of the oil crisis, attention was also paid to managing the transportation system as a system of interconnected components Realizing that increased capacity is not sufficient to satisfy increasing demand for services, with congestion and air pollution in large metropolitan areas as the earlier evidence, policy analysts and policy makers shifted their attention to a more efficient management of facilities (e.g., utilize the capacity of a highway by spreading its use in a day) New

construction was reserved for strategic interventions such as the provision of connectivity among existing roadways Typical examples with their roots in the 1970s approach transportation systems in more systemic ways, e.g., the National Highway System in the United States and the Trans-European Network

in the European Union (EU)

The shift of policies away from expanding capacity to managing demand and the introduction of

a systems approach to transportation has been advocated since the late 1960s, with a first attempt to develop comprehensive plans that would be continuously updated and organized in such a way that all governmental levels would cooperate in working toward a common vision One such example is the U.S Highway Act of 1962 (see Smerck (1968) for a history leading to 1962) Similarly, but to a much lesser extent, the Treaty of Rome in 1957, which constitutes the foundation of today’s European Union, identified transport as one of the key sectors for a common European policy, but it did not have the specificity of the U.S Highway Act because is was too early for the Union In the 1970s a major oil crisis provided the needed momentum to reconsider transport policies because the depen-dency on fossil fuels was becoming a weakness for Western economies Between October 1973 and January 1974, world oil prices doubled due to a 4.2-million-barrel cutback by select oil producers This led to a new era in policies, including international military (defense) initiatives, giving birth to

a wide variety of strategies to curb the ever increasing private automobile use and the dependence of the United States and Europe on imported oil Most of the ideas, policies, and strategies seen in the field today were defined and tested in the years just after the oil crisis (Rothenberg and Heggie, 1974; Meyer and Miller, 2001)

While methods and approaches in the 1950s and the 1970s have solved many problems, 30 years later policy debates continue to depict a very grim picture of the private car’s role in creating the problems

we face in major cities (Pucher, 1999) An added problem to the list we saw before is the West’s dependency

on foreign oil, which is still substantial To counter this, many new policies and strategies are needed to provide transportation services while mitigating and minimizing the negative consequences of a car-centered transportation service provision This is particularly important when we cast transportation services in terms of sustainable development and mobility At the same time and in clear contrast, more pragmatic defenders of the automobile are also emerging to express popular feelings in favor of the automobile’s freedom, flexibility, convenience, and comfort, but also to warn that realistically competitive alternatives to the automobile do not exist yet (Dunn, 1998, 2000)

These problems are not the monopoly of the Western industrialized world Transportation als and transportation systems around the world face similar challenges In its millennium paper, the committee on International Activities of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) (National Academy

profession-of Sciences in the United States) lists the following as challenges (Linzie, 2000):

• Operating transport services and facilities will evolve The type, extent, and quality of service to users will be under continuous evaluation The interoperability (working together) of transport services will be an issue

• Transport organizations will continue a strong trend toward more competition in the delivery of transport services and facilities (e.g., deregulation and privatization)

• Financing and subsidies will always be discussed in the transport sector Electronic innovations will permit more possibilities for efficient user fees, and democratic governments will ensure some perception of equity

• Environmental effects of transportation will increase in importance as long-term issues of air quality, water quality, noise, land use, and hazardous waste become priorities for quality of life and sustainability

• Safety and security of passengers and freight will continue to be emphasized as the public moves toward a zero tolerance of accidents and damage

• Government regulations, now moving toward economic self-regulation, may change from time

to time to balance efficiency with equity and fairness

• Transportation organizations will have to be more prepared to respond to the threat of climatic change, including effects of emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes (and more recently other intentional threats).

• There is a threat of urban congestion and suburban sprawl for sustainable transport

• Worldwide coordination and cooperation among transport officials and professionals in research and development will continue to increase in the 21st century

These themes encompass many of the headings in positions taken by national and international zations under their call for sustainable transport (OECD, 2001) They are also the same themes found

organi-in the European transport policy However, there are key differences between U.S and EU transport policies For example, the need to integrate national transport systems in Europe as different phases of unification are progressing is receiving the bulk of attention; the emissions regulations are aggressive and ambitious on paper, but their implementation is still unknown In contrast, the United States has a mature energy consumption and emission control legislative framework (including rules and regulations that are currently redefined and debated at all levels of government) Whenever possible we will distin-guish between typically U.S vs European issues However, many common themes exist, and the aim to develop suitable analytical tools is the same worldwide

In terms of complete analytical tools that enable us to assess transportation systems for a sustainability viewpoint, we have very little There are even less tools that approach transportation systems from a sustainable viewpoint and recognize the complexity and dynamic nature of the relationships needed to study impacts for modern-day policy actions In contrast, the evolution of analytical methods from the 1970s has seen a tremendous improvement in computational capabilities and a variety of modeling and simulation advances that enable the creation of smarter tools The emerging urgent need for stronger analytical tools and powerful analytical–computational methods is the key reason why we are starting to observe new methodological and practical developments in transportation planning In this handbook examples of some of these tools are provided, with pointers to other references and book chapters in other recent handbooks One key motivation behind the development of the tools is the assessment of the environmental impact of transportation; thus, additional emphasis is given to that aspect

The remainder of this chapter is organized as follows First, one of the most comprehensive definitions

of “sustainable transport” is provided in its three constituent and interacting dimensions as a backdrop for subsequent sections Within this same section is also contained a description of the basic elements

in many policy instruments Then a section follows on trends in transport systems use that are divided into urban and national categories to point out and illustrate the most critical issues (particularly air pollution and congestion, which are worse in urban environments), but also to show that a few issues are national in character Next, three sections address the relationship between transportation and energy consumption, transportation and air pollution, and transportation and safety, with more emphasis on the United States, which appears to be the leading nation in a worldwide unsustainable path that is predominantly private car centered These are examples of problems, solutions, and unresolved issues that motivate many contemporary policy plans and actions worldwide

The 1970s also gave us policy tools to manage the transportation system and travel demand Over time, many lessons were learned about the success and failure of these tools In addition, we have seen increasing discontent with the analytical tools to assess many policies and the aging of the legacy transport model used by many metropolitan planning organizations For this reason, the last two sections discuss transportation control measures and their more recent versions, which appear to emphasize a balanced carrot-and-stick approach to policy The chapter closes with a modeling and simulation framework section that is currently emerging in the field

1.2 Sustainable Transport

The motivation underlying considerations of sustainability is the realization that in our everyday life humans have been and continue to be wasteful As a result, we are running our transportation system

on credit that very soon we will not be able to renew In the words of economists, we are reaching the limits of economic growth when we exhaust our energy resources, deplete the ozone layer, cause or

do nothing to curb global warming, accelerate land degradation, and contribute to the extinction of species (for a comprehensive framework, see Bartelmus, 1994) One much celebrated example is the petroleum fuel we use that is not regenerated by nature (nonrenewable) Therefore, new and better policy initiatives are needed to provide us with safer, cleaner, and less wasteful cars, but also entire systems that promote sustainability (and possibly green engineering) A distinction should be made here between green and sustainable Sustainable means that we are able to support a function or process

by some degree of renewal that sometimes is complete and other times can be renewed with additional effort Green means that we have eliminated the risk of harming the environment and the resource used is completely renewable

Bernow (2000) provides one of the most succinct and interesting distinctions between conventional development and sustainable development with focus on transportation policies Conventional develop-ment is characterized by an attempt to foster convergence in solutions, focus on the short-term impacts, and pay attention to physical–material capital In addition, it fosters competition, consumerism, and individualism Among its key elements we find faith that technology will provide solutions, and analyses

of cause and effects are based on reductionism and assumptions of linearity Sustainable development,

on the other hand, counts on diversity for creative solutions and emphasizes the long-term payoffs Social capital is deemed more important than physical capital, with emphasis on cooperation, quality of life, and community Instead of technology in sustainable development, we find attention on ecology, and its analyses are characterized by ideas of emergence and complexity Most sustainable transport initiatives depart from three basic dimensions of sustainable development, as illustrated in Munasinghe’s diagram

of the mutually reinforcing pillars of sustainability (World Bank, 1996, Figure 1.5, p 28) These pillars function as dimensions; they are the economy (economic and financial aspects), the environment (envi-ronmental and ecological aspects), and social systems Each pillar serves a specific objective to support effective policies that (1) provide for continuing improvements in material standard of living, (2) optimize attainment of overall quality of life, and (3) share the benefits from transportation equitably with all segments of the population

1.2.1 Economic and Financial Sustainability

Recognizing the strategic role played by transport in fostering material growth, sustainable tation means:

transpor-• Increased competition in transport services by privatizing specific aspects of the services (in essence, injecting competition)

• A move toward more efficient financing that charges users for the total costs of their movement

• Direct involvement of all affected communities in the decision process

Particularly important, as the World Bank (1996) notes, is that infrastructure accounts for 25 to 50% of the value of the total capital stock and contributes only 5% to the total cost of transport services Other aspects of the system requiring a more careful scrutiny are the economic justification on decisions on the purchase and use of vehicle fleets and the organization of the logistic chain In fact, supply chain management is a field that is entirely dedicated to the enhancement (some say optimization) of producing

and selling goods to the consumer, and it spans the entire chain, from the extraction of the initial material

needed to manufacture goods to the consumer purchasing an item at a store or having it delivered to his or her home or business location

1.2.2 Environmental and Ecological Sustainability

Time after time, particularly in developed countries, provision of transport has followed a path of auto dependence This dependence increases energy consumption and, because most autos use a specific type

of internal combustion engine, also increases dependence on fossil fuels In addition, it generates damaging air pollution and results in too many road fatalities and injuries Policies in this dimension attempt to:

health-• Use technologies that can move our vehicles with a minimum need for oil

• Eliminate fuels that decrease air quality through undesirable emissions

• Minimize the effects of transportation systems on other aspects of the environment (water and soil)

• Develop services and transportation systems designs that are safer

As Gilbert and Nadeau (2001) state, sustainable economic development and growth may be hard to achieve without resorting to slowing economic growth For this reason, among others, it is very important

to consider the third pillar of sustainability, social sustainability

In addition to the issues above and policy instruments operating within each of these three dimensions, the World Bank (1996) points out that there are policy instruments that reinforce each other Among these we find improved asset maintenance, technical efficiency of supply, safety initiatives, contract design, public administration, and charges for external effects For example, transportation system components that are not maintained because they are unsustainable lead to environmental damages and are more likely to harm the less wealthy population segments Synergy between two pillars does not ensure sustainability For example, the private automobile fosters economic development and provides accessi-bility to many population segments but harms the environment While this is valid for the entire world, North American, European, and Australian situations appear to be converging to similar findings and present many similarities in the proposed strategies Similarities may also be found and could emerge in Asia, particularly in Japan, for which we have only limited information

1.2.4.2 Strategies

In the traditional process we find initiatives for system expansion and safety, efficiency improvements, traffic management, demand management, and Intelligent Transportation Systems (a conglomerate of

information and telecommunications technologies aiming to resolve specific system management and user needs and problems) In the sustainable orientation we find maintenance of existing systems and their facilities, traffic calming and urban design, emphasis on the connections and relationship among

modes (the key words are multimodal and intermodal aspects of travel), transportation and land use

interaction and integration, demand management for reducing motorized transport, demand and increase in nonmotorized travel, and education and public involvement

1.2.4.3 Pricing

In the traditional process we find subsidies to transportation users and the true total costs to society are not reflected in the price to travel In the sustainable orientation we find pricing that includes environ-mental costs, and transportation services are priced as utility services Litman (2001) demonstrates how most costs of vehicle use are either fixed or external, and therefore do not affect individual traveler trip decisions Among his suggestions for sustainable transport we find a call for internalizing external costs, shifting fixed costs to variable costs, and implementing revenue-neutral tax shifts Forkenbrock (1999) offers a similar proposition for trucks An attempt to quantify many of these costs and to incorporate them into the collective decision-making process is also represented by the more recent Transportation Research Board report on the costs of urban sprawl (TCRP, 2002) Pricing of transportation services, particularly in urban environments (Gomez-Ibanez, 1999), provides an accessible treatment on this subject Research in Europe appears to be very active in this area; examples can be found at htttp://www.Europa.EO.INT/Comm/Transport/Extra/Home.html

1.2.4.4 Technology

Technology in traditional processes is used to promote individual mobility, meet government-mandated performance thresholds and standards, minimize negative impacts, and improve system operations In the sustainable orientation technology is used for travel substitution and provision of more options, pollution is minimized by benign technology, a perspective of life cycle cost assessment is embraced, and more efficient use of the transportation system is advocated

Governments and community groups in recent years are increasingly confronted with problems within each of these four dimensions and exhibit coordinated movements toward sustainable orientations In parallel, surveys and polls of the population indicate that solutions to these problems will need to be more creative and innovative than in the past Recent surveys show that transportation system users want freedom of movement, well-maintained transportation systems, more options to participate in their everyday activities, and more reliable transportation systems in all modes However, they also indicate that environmental issues, in particular air quality and energy conservation and efficiency, should also

be addressed (OmniBUS survey of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2001; Goulias et al., 2001a)

1.2.4.5 Bringing It All Together

Balancing such a diversity of human nature needs and wants is a very complex task at any level of government Given the complexity of transportation systems and the desires of their customers, public

agencies are increasingly considering portfolios of policies that can address and resolve a few of these

problems by mutual strengthening These portfolios need to be implemented based on a timeline that

is dictated by the timescale of their impact and implementation requirements (e.g., some types of regulations need preparatory work and extensive public debate) For this reason, we must consider not

only combinations of policy actions, but also a dynamic path of policy implementation Most important,

however, is an attempt to endorse and use one key strategic planning approach that can be named performance-based planning Approaching planning in this way requires communities to decide on a

future they would like to achieve (the vision) and to set performance criteria and targets to help them

know when they have achieved the vision and to guide them in their path toward that vision (Goulias

etþal., 2001a) Then scenarios are created of possible paths and a continuous monitoring system is put

in place to determine progress Performance criteria and targets can be defined in two parallel and complementary ways: the scientific way, in which evidence about desirable targets emerges from more

or less rigorous research (see Banister etþal., 2000), and the political process (see an example mentioned

in Banister etþal., 2000, p 122) This can be expanded to incorporate explicitly performance criteria from

a supply chain viewpoint (Morash, 2000) In the United States the voice of the public is a mandatory and dictated task in transportation planning activities by recent federal legislation under the label “public involvement.” In fact, many new long-range transportation plans at the state level contain strong public involvement elements and are performance-based, with the targets derived directly from a public involve-ment campaign (Goulias etþal., 2001b)

Public involvement does not help us realize benefits without instruments for implementing policy

actions There are at least two groups of instruments in our toolbox: regulation-based instruments, such

as the limits imposed on energy consumption (e.g., the corporate average fuel economy in the United States, dictating that the fuel consumption of passenger cars sold in the United States should not exceed

a maximum limit), and market-based instruments, such as “feebates,” which in essence penalize wasteful

transport options through fees and provide rebates (discounts) for the use of more environmentally friendly options Among the market-based instruments we also find soft policy methods, such as indi-vidualized marketing (i.e., customer-specific information provision combined with incentives for envi-ronmentally friendly behaviors such as walking and biking) One such success story comes from Western Australia (John and Bröeg, 2000) Other similar approaches to travel behavior change are described and compared in Bradshaw (2000) Within these portfolios of strategies, and given the domination of the automobile in private and public fleets, one promising bundle of solutions is new technology (e.g., new vehicles, new fueling systems, and creative use of information and telecommunication systems).However, more traditional transportation plans and programs are designed for local communities and regions not possessing the means to influence technology development In fact, most actions that are included in these programs (roadway and facility supply management, land use management, and travel demand management) assume technology as an exogenous quantity (see the U.S examples in Meyer and Miller (2001) and the EU examples in Banister etþal (2000)) As expected, new technology development and incentives for implementation are in the realm of national planning (the federal government in the United States, individual member countries in the European Union, and the variety of EU promulgations for common policies); worldwide initiatives such as the Rio Summit, with the stabilization of CO2 in

1992 (Bartelmus, 1994); and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), famous for its December 1997 Kyoto agreement and the controversial listing of the Appendix I countries and targets Private enterprise, however, particularly in the new and environmentally friendly fuels arena, may prove to be the most promising solution because of the worldwide car ownership trends, as we will see later in this chapter With strengthening unification and the design of common policies for participant countries in Europe, we also see support for new policies and technologies by the European Union Emphasis on common new and advanced technology is one of the most positive consequences of unification, and it is already starting to show the benefits of increased global competitiveness (e.g., see the wireless telephony superiority of European networks and telephone manufacturers) As expected, there are barriers, one of which is the fragmentation of jurisdictions to the implementation of new ideas, but there are also solutions outlined in plans

Policies and plans for action are usually defined at different levels of government These levels are defined based on ethnic, topographic, and historical reasons, but they seem to exhibit similarities across the Western world Two key players in this, but at very different geographic scales, are the national governments and the cities Because of the wide differences in the types of problems faced by each of these governments, common ground and coordination are needed for cooperation To tie together national policies with local government and regional policy actions, many governments invest in “part-nerships.” An example, from the long-range transportation planning efforts in the United States is the emphasis on the cooperative planning process Another example is the grassroots movement that started with help from the United States government in the alternatively fueled vehicles arena One such case is the Clean Cities program, an 82-community initiative coordinated by the U.S Department of Energy (http://www.ccities.doe.gov) The key common element among these examples is the cooperation and

compatibility (borrowing from another transportation area, we name this property policy interoperability)

among policies, plans, and programs defined at all levels of government In fact, we may have examples

of government policies that are contradicting each other At the local level we often find local laws and regulations by municipalities dictating minimum parking spaces per employer or residence This con-tradicts policies that aim at the reduction of driving a car to work (such as car- or vanpooling and public transportation) because parking availability (very often at no charge to the car driver) is a strong incentive for car use At the national level policies aimed at gasoline price reduction contradict environmental policies aimed at the reduction of fossil fuel use These contradictions, as well as our spectacular economic growth in the past 50 years, underlie the trends we review below

1.3 An Overview of Trends

Looking at our past is not a pleasant activity because this past is not very flattering for our skills as planners During the last 25 years and today, Europe and the United States are characterized by a marked (some would say explosive (Banister etþal., 2000)) mobility increase Most indicators, particularly for highway and air travel, have experienced an upward trend, even when within individual countries we do not see significant population increases As most statistics from government agencies report, there are many contributing factors to this explosion, which can be summarized as follows:

• Economic activity (e.g., measured in terms of gross domestic product) has increased steadily in Europe, the United States, and a few less industrialized countries (see Banister etþal., 2000; BTS, 2002; Gilbert and Nadeau, 2001)

• Household size decreased and the number of households increased, creating the need for additional housing units Household composition, however, is very different, even among industrialized countries (e.g., Spain, Portugal and Ireland have households that are significantly larger than other

EU countries with similar wealth per capita)

• Employment experienced many shifts, including increased labor force participation by women, increases in part-time employment, and a shift to the service industry

• Consolidation of the once geographically dispersed businesses (retail stores) led to a movement

to the suburbs, where land was less expensive This also motivated wider urban sprawl and an overall increase in the distances traveled

• Provision of high-speed facilities (e.g., autobahn, autostrada, motorway, expressway, freeway) to connect intraurban and extraurban locations further motivate the use of the private automobile

• Differential evolution of costs favor the private automobile (e.g., gasoline costs decreased while public transportation costs remained constant or increased)

• Practically nonexistent policy to internalize external costs (e.g., costs of air pollution to public health deterioration) favors the use of specific modes, such as private car, truck, and airplane

Table 1.1 provides an overview and a snapshot in 1999 of a few key demographic and economic indicators for selected countries

These social and demographic trends, however, cause and are accompanied by different effects and events in different environments Figure 1.1 provides a comparison between the United States and other countries on an indicator that is often used as benchmark: motorization As expected, the United States has more automobiles in circulation, but when this is reported per capita, Germany has the highest number, although it has by far higher proportions of public transportation use Figure 1.2 shows the new vehicles purchased In the year 2000 alone the global manufacturing output was 59,765,616 vehicles, and the total sales worldwide was 57,629,253 vehicles The different rates of purchasing new vehicles, with the United States being the consumer champion, are also an indicator of the capability of each country

to control air pollution from vehicle use and other types of pollution caused when vehicles reach the end of their life (e.g., not all the material from which vehicles are made can be recycled and a portion

of it is harmful to the environment) On the one hand, when new technologies to curb emissions are introduced, the United States appears to have the largest capacity in meeting targets because of the

TABLE 1.1 A Selection of Demographic and Other Characteristics in a Few Countries

Land area (in thousands of

Percent of surface freight

(ton kilometers by road

transport)

Source: From Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000, FHWA, 2001.

FIGURE 1.1 Car ownership in select countries (a) Number of automobiles; (b) automobiles per 1000 persons

(From Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000, FHWA, 2001.)

relatively young age of its vehicle fleet, due to the shorter time consumers keep the same vehicle in the household However, on the other hand, this shorter life of vehicles will contribute the most in pollution

at the end of their lives unless higher recycling rates are introduced in the newly manufactured vehicles (exporting used vehicles to less developed countries is not a global solution, but merely a shift of the pollution issues elsewhere) In addition, as one would expect, high car ownership and high car sales lead

to equally high levels of car utilization Table 1.2 provides an overview for a small number of countries for which comparable data exist (compiled by the U.S Department of Transportation (DOT) every year)

In the remaining portion of this section we distinguish between the more urbanized environments and the countries in their entirety to provide additional details about these trends Rural environments are equally important and face issues that have not received extensive attention in the literature For conve-nience, specific focus on them is excluded from the presentation here

1.3.1 Urban Environments

In a comparative study of major cities around the world, Newman and Kenworthy (1999) and Kenworthy and Laube (1999) examine the patterns of automobile dependence and use, its infrastructure, and land use patterns These cities exhibit three distinct groups of “typical” developments

FIGURE 1.2 Car sales around the world in 2000 (From Global Market Data Book, Crain Communications, London,

2001.)

643,928

8,371,499

2,176,284 1,884,869 1,191,903

9,005,120 1,447,529

United StatesCanada & MexicoAll Other Western Europe Germany

ItalyGreat BritainFrance

The first is a group of cities located mainly in the United States and Australia that are very dependent

on automobile use They do not show a relative gain in the percentage of their gross regional product (GRP) spent on commuting; their average trip times to work are similar; transit cost recovery is very low; and their road expenditures are higher than the other two groups However, the resulting higher costs due to automobile dependence are not charged directly to the automobile users; instead they are spread out to the entire population The higher levels of per capita car use means higher energy use, higher emissions production, more accidents, and more costly transportation fatalities

The second group comprises cities with good public transportation systems, mostly European and relatively more affluent Asian cities (e.g., Singapore, Tokyo, and Hong Kong) These cities have the least costs associated with their transportation systems In this category we also find Toronto, New York, and Sydney

The third group contains cities in rapidly developing Asian countries that have considerably more costly transportation systems than their relatively more wealthy neighboring countries, probably due to their orientation to car travel These cities include Bangkok, Seoul, and Beijing, among others

A key finding in these city reviews is the complex relationship between regional wealth (measured by GRP) and car use and dependency U.S and Australian cities use the car the most Perth in Western Australia had 7023 km/capita and a GRP of U.S $17,697 in 1990; Phoenix had 11,608 km/capita and a GRP of 20,555; while European cities had an average car use of 4519 km/capita and an average GRP of 31,721 in 1990 The developing Asian cities have low kilometers per capita, but also low GRP, which in essence shows a clearly nonsustainable path of growth and development in which the costs by far outweigh productivity and transportation cost recovery

Transport-related deaths in 1990 (in deaths per 100,000 persons) as reported in Newman and worthy (1999) were 14.6 for U.S cities, 12.0 for Australian cities, 6.5 for Toronto, 8.8 for European cities, 6.6 for wealthy Asian cities, and 13.7 for developing Asian cities Exceptions for developing Asian cities are the Chinese cities, with just 4.8 deaths per 100,000 persons Their large modal share in nonmotorized transport is one contributing factor to this positive indicator However, as recent studies and predictions show, this will change rapidly in the future (He and Wang, 2001)

Ken-In terms of CO2 transport (public and private) emissions per capita in 1990 (kilograms per person), U.S cities produce 4536; Australian cities, 2789; Toronto, 2434; European cities, 1888; wealthy Asian cities, 1158; and developing Asian cities, 837 Public share of emissions is usually a minuscule

TABLE 1.2 Key Transport Indicators in Selected Countries

Total vehicle kilometers of travel

Automobiles (in millions)

Total vehicle kilometers of travel

Automobiles (per capita)

Total vehicle kilometers of travel

Motorcycles (in millions)

Total vehicle kilometers of travel

Buses (in millions)

Total vehicle kilometers of travel

Trucks (in millions)

Average vehicle kilometers of

travel per automobile

Average vehicle kilometers of

travel per motorcycle

Average vehicle kilometers of

travel per bus

Average vehicle kilometers of

travel per truck

Source: From Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000, FHWA, 2001.

proportion of the total When comparing these same cities in terms of smog emissions (NOx, SO2,

CO, and other volatile hydrocarbons), Newman and Kenworthy (1999) report the following data in Table 1.3 Toronto’s higher emission rates are apparently due to less stringent emissions standards in Canada This is also the case for Australia, which has an older national vehicle fleet than the United States The United States contributes lower emissions on a per kilometer traveled basis due to its corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ) and the mandated tailpipe emission standards, currently resulting in major benefits (discussed later), and its much younger fleet of automobiles These emissions, however, are not lower than those of European cities that are populated with much less vehicles and use public transport at much higher modal split proportions

On one hand, these comparisons show a disturbing trend for U.S and Australian cities These cities continue their pattern of urban sprawl and waste of land and other resources This example is followed

by many developing cities, which exhibit similar patterns Even worse, however, they are likely to possess

a lower capacity to provide solutions, due to their lower economic potential On the other hand, European cities and Toronto appear to have found at least partial solutions This may be due to historical and cultural reasons (many European cities have centers with urban forms designed for pedestrian circula-tion), necessity, and public policy

1.3.2 National Levels

Pucher and Lefevre (1996) have created a comparison of urban transportation-related trends around the world Trends provided include absolute traffic by mode of transportation, transportation modal share, measures of congestion, safety statistics, air quality descriptions, and an overview of settlement patterns The authors also document trends in transportation investment, subsidies, taxation, control strategies

of individual behavior, and control strategies of corporate behavior Among their key findings is that as income increases, people choose to live in lower density settlements (in the suburbs) and consume greater quantities of automobile transportation, predominantly using fossil fuels

Increases in motorization are also strongly correlated with urban sprawl (but also other types of decentralization), leading to problems of air pollution, congestion, and safety statistics that do not seem

to be improving worldwide These findings are confirmed by Schipper and Marie-Lilliu (1999) with the addition that distance traveled per capita is increasing faster than distance traveled per vehicle because

of increases in car ownership In addition, geographic density of population is a major factor, explaining the amount of travel per person because of choice, necessity, or both For example, people in the United States, Canada, and Australia with lower densities and higher incomes travel more and use the private automobile the most Table 1.2 provides partial evidence to support these claims Schipper etþal (1999) demonstrate similar trends in Asian countries Given the worldwide projections of an increasingly wealthier world (OECD, 2001), it is reasonable to expect that many of these figures will continue to worsen for some time into the future One snapshot of this potentially worsening situation is also the predominant use of all types of vehicles in urban environments, as Figure 1.3 shows As expected, however,

Australian

European Cities

Wealthy Asian Cities

Developing Asian Cities Smog emissions (kilogram

the combination trucks (tractor and a trailer) and buses serving longer-distance travel among cities appear to be used mostly outside urban environments.

1.4 Transportation and Energy

Today the demand for oil is 74 million barrels per day and appears to be growing consistently worldwide Demand growth in developing countries is higher than in the more developed portion of the world, and

it is expected to grow as it did in the past for the United States (Schafer and Victor, 2000) The growth

is not due exclusively to the growth of gasoline consumption, which appears to be stabilizing at 1990 levels Instead, aviation and diesel fuel consumption appears to be increasing much more rapidly, as the International Energy Agency claims (see http://www.iea.org/, accessed April 2002)

In spite of this growth, the paradigm of exhaustible resources for energy shortages and transportation oil consumption (as theorized after the 1970s oil crisis) does not seem to be the popular theory in resource economics today Instead, a more complex and dynamic theory is emerging that examines the roles of tech-nology and social institutions in exploring, researching, defining, testing, implementing, expanding, exploiting, and abandoning energy resources and associated technologies In fact, many analysts and energy agencies have estimates showing that liquid fuels (conventional and unconventional) may last up to 1500 years

These resources, however, tend to be concentrated in specific geographic regions where organized cartels control prices that can also create artificial scarcity, contributing to and generating major economic shocks and disruptions Moreover, energy consumption statistics and forecasts as they relate to the United States show on average over recent years that:

• U.S oil net imports as a percent of consumption was 49.6% in 1999 (Davis, 2000) This is almost twice its value in 1983 (28.1%) and it is expected to increase further unless something drastic is done

• OPEC’s share of world production is expected to grow to more than 50% by 2020 (CEC, 1999)

In a global market there are no countries that will not feel the effects of supply disruptions from exporting nations Worldwide transportation as a sector is particularly exposed to these effects, and the United States is even more vulnerable Our transportation system is almost completely dependent on oil The energy consumption distribution by source for transportation in the United States for 1999 was 97.4% petroleum and 2.6% natural gas, with all other types of energy being very small At the same time, the net imports as a percentage of U.S oil consumption was 50% in 1999 Particularly controversial are the military expenditure estimates for defending oil supplies from the Middle and Near East Estimates

oil-of this are representing an average oil-of $32 billion per year, with a standard deviation oil-of the estimate at approximately $22 million DeLucchi (1997) provides a comprehensive discussion about automobile costs and raises doubts about the defense-related costs

FIGURE 1.3 Distribution in the United States of vehicle use by type Percent of urban travel over total kilometers

(United States, 1999) (From U.S Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics, Federal Highway tion, Washington, D.C., 2000.)

In addition to United States, transportation’s energy use is growing everywhere In 1989 world energy consumption was estimated to be 344.83 quadrillion Btu, 39.0% of which was from petroleum In 1998 total energy consumption was 377.72 quadrillion Btu (a 9.5% increase from 1989), of which 39.6% was from petroleum (Davis, 2000).

In the United States, with an average percent increase in annual rate of energy consumption of 1.3%

in the past 10 years, transportation increases are slightly higher than other sectors, at an approximately 1.4% increase per year Transportation had 16.07% of the total national energy consumption in 1970, 22.57% in 1989, and 28.00% in 1999 (Davis, 2000) Within transportation, highway travel consumes 77.2% of the total energy, with automobiles and trucks the first and second top consumers, respectively Trucks and automobiles consume almost 97% of the total gasoline used in the United States, and trucks also consume approximately 66% of the diesel fuel These facts make transportation far more vulnerable

to oil price shocks than any other sector of the economy

One way to disengage the United States and other oil-consuming countries from this dependency is

to develop new fuels and associated strategies However, the benefits from these technology-based egies will be realized only after they have penetrated the market in substantial quantities to function as stabilizers As is evident from the air pollution and climate change arguments, transportation energy issues and strategies are defined as a group of policies and actions that address all three aspects simul-taneously because they are strictly and inherently related

strat-1.5 Transportation and the Environment

Transportation impacts the environment not only during facility construction, when the disfigurement

of land is most evident, but also after facilities are opened to operation In this section the atmosphere (air pollution) is emphasized The impacts of transportation on soil and water contamination and related studies are of equally paramount importance, but are neglected in this presentation (for a more recent study and related references, see Nelson etþal., 2001)

1.5.1 Climate Change

Current thinking about transportation and the world’s climate change (as expressed by the ernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of leading scientists) indicates that CO2 is the most important contributor to climate change and that observations suggest human influence on global climate In December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, participants in the United Nations Framework Convention

Intergov-on Climate Change set specific targets for reducing GHG emissiIntergov-ons Since the United States is the world’s largest emitter of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (approximately one fourth of the world’s total) and its transportation sector produces more than any other country, under the Kyoto Protocol the United States is expected to reduce its emissions by 7% below that of 1990 levels in the 2008–2012 period Based on data summarized in the annual report by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Davis, 2000), transportation contribution to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption has been 30.5% in 1984, 32.2% in 1990, and 32.6% in 1998 Motor gasoline consumption accounts for 60.8%

of this 1998 inventory of CO2

Given these trends and current and projected use of automobiles, most analysts believe reductions within the Kyoto time frame will not happen because of the amount of time required for technological turnover in the real world, but it may be achieved in the next 30 years (DeCicco and Mark, 1998; Greene and Plotkin, 1997) In addition, when considering CO2, CH4, and N2O in their totality, based

on United Nations reports for the countries in what is known as Appendix I, in the period 1990–1997 there have been reductions in man-made emissions in only a few countries by a few percentage points (except for Germany, the third largest overall contributor, which reported a 14% reduction) The United States, as the largest contributor, reports a 10% increase, and Japan, the fourth largest contrib-utor, reports a 9% increase The Russian Federation, the second largest contributor, provided no data (www.unfccc.de)

Within the United States, California appears to be the leader in environmental policy, technology implementation, and development of strategies, particularly as they relate to GHGs California’s Energy Commission is the designated state agency for analyzing energy-related issues and setting directions; the following is a summary of the strategies of the California Energy Commission (CEC) to decrease CO2and other GHG emissions from transportation uses (CEC, 1998):

• Continued development and promotion of clean, alternatively fueled vehicles (AFVs)

• Continued alternative fuel vehicle infrastructure development

• Production and use of biomass to produce transportation fuels

• Pricing measures to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT)

• Higher fuel economy standards

• Alternative fuel vehicle incentives, including fuel subsidies and vehicle purchase incentives

• VMT taxes and congestion fees to reduce VMT

• Land use and transportation strategies to reduce congestion, improve air quality, and reduce CO2emissions

Schafer (2000), based on a model that forecasts motorization and travel in 11 regions around the world (see also Schafer and Victor, 2000), concludes that GHGs and particularly CO2 can be inhibited

in the medium term (2010 to 2020) and controlled in the long term (by 2050) only with very drastic measures that necessitate technological solutions The most important findings are:

• Replacement of petroleum fuels by natural gas will have a major positive effect in decreasing CO2

• Fuel efficiency improvements are necessary but not sufficient

• Longer-term reductions can be achieved only by using transportation fuels that are not carbon based

CO2 has received most of the attention in publications and targeted GHGs However, more than 10 years ago, DeLucchi (1991) (see also his bibliography, DeLucchi, 1996) pointed out that emissions of GHGs should also include CH4, N2O, and criteria pollutants such as CO, NOx, and nonmethane organic compounds It is also very important to examine the carbon content of fuels (grams per British thermal unit) and the efficiency of fuel use (British thermal unit per mile or British thermal unit per kilowatt)

1.5.2 Air Quality

Transportation is also responsible for a large portion of the air pollution emanating from fuel combustion, causing morbidity, mortality, and ecosystem damage The legislative framework for air quality and transportation in the United States is supported by the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1970, its amendments

in 1990 (CAAA), the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), the more recent portation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), and Titles 23, 40, and 49 of the U.S Code and Code

Trans-of Federal Regulations CAAA and ISTEA introduced a different philosophy in dealing with air pollution from transportation sources Regulations from these require an integration of transportation plans and investments with the goal of improving air quality For example, they mandated the application of transportation control measures (TCMs) — such as strategies and actions to decrease the number of vehicles driven alone by motivating people to carpool — with clear implementation schedules and goals

In addition, they introduced the process of conformity in plan development — in essence a check on compatibility among transportation plans and programs with air quality attainment of specific standards (see Chapter 13 in this handbook) A similar process appears to be evolving in the U.K., as described in Beattie etþal (2001) and the European Framework Directives of 1996, such as the Auto Oil I Programme (for a discussion, see Fenger, 1999; Banister etþal., 2000; Commission of the European Communities,

1996, 2000)

The CAAA also focused on technological improvements by mandating progressively tighter vehicle emission standards, cleaner fuels, and vehicle inspection and maintenance programs Tier I emissions

standards have been required for automobiles from model year 1994, and new bus standards were also introduced In 1997 NOx reduction standards were also introduced Air pollution is particularly acute in urban environments, as discussed previously, and motivates many of the stipulations in CAAA, which redefined the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), as maximum concentrations of pol-lutants that cannot be exceeded In addition, it also gives authority to the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose highway fund sanctions when noncompliance is found (Savonis, 2000; Niemeier’s chapter in this handbook) California’s air resources board also defines standards that are more localized than the federal standards (http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqs/aqs.htm).

NAAQS specify maximum acceptable concentrations beyond which unhealthy conditions exist and also define the criteria pollutants to be regulated in order to meet the NAAQS on carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with aerodynamic size smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), particulate matter with aerodynamic size smaller than 10 µm (PM10), ozone (O3), and airborne lead (Pb) Details on the standards, their history, and associated legislation can be found in Wark etþal (1998) CAAA also defined the majority of air pollution controls for transportation.Transportation (mostly motor vehicles) contributes large quantities to four of the criteria pollutants Based on data from Davis (2000), in 1998 transportation produced 78% of the CO, of which 56.3% was contributed by highway vehicles For the same year, transportation contributed 53.4% to the total NOxproduced, more than half of which (31.8% of total NOx production) was due to highway vehicles A little less than half (43.5%) of the volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions are from transportation, with 29.7% of the total produced by highway vehicles VOC with NOx combine in the atmosphere and, with the help of sunlight, form ground-level ozone, which is the primary component of smog Lead received 13.1% of its total production from transportation in 1998, in spite of its spectacular decline since the introduction of unleaded gasoline worldwide Transportation’s share of emissions is smaller for PM10 (2.1%), PM2.5 (7.2%), SO2 (7.2%), and NH3 (5.2%) Figure 1.4 provides an overview (BTS, 2001).The CAAA and other transportation legislative initiatives, together with technological advances by the auto manufacturers, have worked very well Pickrell (1999) (see also Table 1.4) and Davis (2000) show

a remarkable downward trend in emissions by the United States in the past 30 years David Greene (1999),

a recognized national expert in energy and transportation, attributes this spectacular gain to advanced

FIGURE 1.4 Evolution of emissions in the United States from transportation (From Transportation Indicators,

Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS, Washington, D.C., 2000.)

Index of Key Air Pollutant Emissions from Transportation (annual data)

Lead

55,437 10,077 6,513 420 336 250 0.5

54,170 9,975 6,510 405 323 260 0.5

SOURCE: U.S Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) 1998a National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Update: 1970-1997 (Research Triangle Park, NC: December 1998).

Despite rapid growth in vehicle use over the past two decades, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compound (VOC) have declined, and lead emissions have been almost eliminated, leading to improved air quality There have been reductions in particulate emissions (PM) at the 10 micron classification Only emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) remain above

1970 levels (Ammonia and PM-2.5 were added to the list of regulated tants recently.)

With the exception of lead, onroad vehicles contribute the largest share of air pollutants among all models.

pollution control technology such as three-way vehicle catalytic converters, multipoint fuel injection, and electronically controlled combustion.

This was also reflected in pollutant concentrations monitored by the U.S EPA, which shows a decline

of 94% in recorded lead concentration and a decline of 54% in CO of the U.S urban areas between 1975 and 1996 In addition, violations of the NAAQS for lead, NO2, and CO were very few (Pickrell (1999) notes “virtually eliminated”), and violations for ozone decreased by 90% Encouraged by these results and threatened by the loss of benefits achieved from the continuous increase in travel, the EPA has moved

to a second wave of more stringent requirements

Tailpipe exhaust emissions standards have become increasingly more stringent for each vehicle ufactured model year These are different for each category of vehicle, based on gross vehicle weight California went a step further and reduced its emission standards by dramatically lowering HC, CO, and

man-NOx for its certification of new vehicles sold in California (Davis, 2000) The California Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) program is a set of requirements for new vehicles sales that dictates each major vehicle manufacturer to meet a set of emission standards Starting from model year 1994, LEV mandates that a minimum percentage of new car sales need to be in a given category of these lower emission standards This was first introduced for passenger vehicles and then extended to other vehicles Other states have also considered the LEV program (for an example assessing the environmental and economic effects of these policies in Pennsylvania, see Goulias etþal (1993))

Recent U.S policy developments are also pressing pollution control for light-duty gasoline vehicles toward new levels of stringency California’s LEV II rules and federal tier 2 standards are levels set for light-vehicle emissions by regulations that are phased in the market starting in 2004 Key aspects include a greater emphasis on NOx control (0.07 g/mi NOx for light cars and trucks < 6000 lb in gross vehicle weight (GVW)) and inclusion of all vehicles in this standard This is a reduction by factors of five to ten from current levels There are also rules about extended durability requirements and harmonization of light trucks with passenger car standards In addition, the rules include reductions for the national average gasoline sulfur levels An example of standards in the newly defined LEV II program is provided at the California air resources board (ARB) website (http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/levii/factsht.htm), which contains a general overview of the program and the rationale behind these newer and stricter rules

In its report to Congress, the EPA stated that total vehicle miles traveled (in the United States) grew from 1 trillion in 1970 to 2.5 trillion in 1997, and is expected to grow at the rate of 2 to 3% each year (in fact, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reports 2.56 trillion in 1997 and 2.63 trillion in

1998 for roadway travel alone) In addition, almost half of the passenger vehicles sold in 1998 were polluting light-duty trucks, such as sport utility vehicles With these as key motivations and the fear that benefits from tier I standards would be lost, the U.S government launched a new program At the national level 23 automobile manufacturers, most states (except for New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine), and the District of Columbia agreed to participate in the National Low Emissions Vehicle (NLEV) program, which parallels the earlier California program (http://www.epa.gov/oms/)

higher-Alternatively fueled vehicles are one possible solution to the air quality and energy problem In this arena, very important for assessing proposed solutions is the California mandate for zero emitting vehicles, with the 10% requirement for 2003 and its gradual increase to 16% by 2018 being the most notable targets Additional information may be found at http://www.zevinfo.com/electric/zevchanges.pdf

In addition, a variety of incentive programs exist, as shown at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevprog.htm NLEV allows market flexibility for program participants through:

Source: From Pickrell, D., Transp Res A, 33, 527–547, 1999.

• A market-based credit system for both the auto and oil industries to reward those who lead the way in reducing pollution sooner than required

• An averaging program created to meet both car emission and gasoline sulfur standards

• Strong interim standards for auto manufacturers and refiners while they work toward full pliance of the new standard

com-• Extra time for small refiners to meet the sulfur standards

In the United States the estimated number of alternatively fueled vehicles grew from about 250,000

in 1992 to about 430,000 in 2000 In addition, consumption of alternative transportation fuels grew from about 230 million gasoline-equivalent gallons in 1992 to about 370 million gasoline-equivalent gallons in 2000 (Joyce, 2001) Government policy has impacted these air pollution trends Among the policies examined are investment in public transportation, investment in roads, traffic calming, traffic demand management, and traffic supply management, as well as government regulations of auto manufacturing companies that resulted in automobiles that are significantly more fuel efficient, safer, and cleaner than models of several years ago However, the long-term trend of lower emissions will be very difficult to maintain given the expected increases in automobile travel and its continued and sustained growth This is a particularly disturbing indicator because as less motorized countries develop their motorization (see, for example, the Chinese scenarios in He and Wang (2001), in which China reaches today’s U.S oil consumption and CO2 emission in just 30 years), technology may be the only solution

1.5.3 The Energy Policy Act

Two national goals — to enhance U.S energy security and to improve environmental quality — are the motivations behind the passage of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct), which encompasses many of the aspects related to:

• Energy supply and demand

Figure 1.5 shows a map of the Clean Cities program The EPAct defines several programs, three of which are of particular interest to transportation planning practitioners Within the EPAct, one objective is to build an inventory of alternatively fueled vehicles in centrally fueled fleets in metropolitan areas The fleets targeted are state governments and alternative fuel providers, the federal government, and local governments and private entities

The EPAct requires state government and alternative fuel provider fleets (fleets with more than 50 light-duty vehicles located in one of 125 designated metropolitan areas) to purchase AFVs as a percentage

of their annual light-duty vehicle acquisitions In addition, fuel provider fleets are required to use alternative fuels whenever feasible (www.ott.doe.gov/epact/state_fleets.html) This includes buses and law enforcement agencies

Federal fleets are required to purchase 75% of their new light-duty vehicles from the available AFVs Additional rules effective April 2001 also establish a petroleum reduction goal of 20% by 2005 for federal fleets, compared to their fiscal year (FY) 1999 usage Agencies are also required to submit strategies for how they will achieve the targets set for them

The Department of Energy (DOE) also has the authority to impose AFV acquisition requirements on private and local government fleets This portion of the EPAct is still under consideration New fuels may also be added and qualify under the EPAct through a special petition program One such type of fuel known as P-series and biodiesel have been included in the list of approved alternative fuels The DOE is estimating that because of its regulatory programs, an annual demand for approximately 30,000 AFVs

is created Estimates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show almost 90% of the current 430,000 AFVs to be liquid propane gas (LPG) or natural gas fueled However, the share of AFVs designed for LPG and methanol is declining, and the share of those designed for natural gas, ethanol, and electricity are increasing (Joyce, 2001)

In the Clean Cities program, the government’s objectives, such as energy security, fuel diversity, air quality, and economic opportunity, are combined with commercial objectives and voluntary commitments from fuel suppliers, vehicle suppliers, and fleet owners to form locally based partnerships (U.S DOE, 2001, www.ccities.doe.gov) The program, organized by the U.S DOE and mandated in EPAct 1992, is the mechanism used to seek voluntary commitments from suppliers, providers, and fleet purchasers This is a niche market because it is protected by federal legislation, the U.S DOE is motivated to make it a success, and it has a national goal In 1999 it already had 77 participating communities spanning the entire United States Today the program has 82 coalitions located in almost every state and 11 large corridors

1.5.3.1 Fleets

From the earlier inception of alternative fuels, fleets appeared to be a good target (Webb etþal., 1989; Madder and Bevilacqua, 1989) Some of the reasons are:

High-mileage: Since fleets consume larger quantities of fuel, fleet managers may achieve cost savings

when alternative fuels are less expensive

Centrally located facilities: Many fleets have their own refueling and service facilities and can reach

economies of scale easily In addition, many fleets tend to “garage” their vehicles in one location during the night, which makes electric vehicle recharging easier

Uncommon uses: There are fleets with a high use of idling stages, such as airports and other major

transportation terminals

FIGURE 1.5 The Clean Cities program (From http://www.ccities.doe.gov Accessed January 2000.)

Predictable routes and scheduling that can be specialized: Fleet managers can assign vehicles based on

their performance characteristics to routes, tasks, and schedules

Life cycle advantage: Fleet managers are more likely to acquire vehicles with long-term benefits because

they tend to optimize based on the entire life cycle of a vehicle’s use

Some typical fleets identified by U.S DOE for its Clean Cities program are taxis, delivery fleets, shuttle service and transit bus fleets, airport ground fleets, school bus fleets, and national park vehicles.The following is an excerpt from http://www.ccities.doe.gov/success/ev_rental.shtml:

EV Rental Cars — CNG, Electric

Budget EV Rental Cars offers electric vehicles for rent at Los Angeles International Airport, and recently expanded its selection to include the dedicated compressed natural gas (CNG) Honda Civic GX The electric vehicles available are the Honda EV Plus, Ford Ranger, GM EV1, Toyota RAV-4, Daimler-Chrysler EPIC minivan, and the Nissan Altra Electric recharging stations are available to electric-vehicle renters through a partnership with the LA Department of Water and Power Natural gas vehicle renters receive fueling cards from Pickens Fuel and Southern California Gas Company that give them access to the many natural gas refueling stations in the LA area Budget EV Rental Cars also is expanding its service locations An EV Rental Center is now open at the Sacramento airport The rental fleet includes 20 electric vehicles that are being offered for rental at rates as low as $44 per day Charging

is free at the 100 electric charging stations in the Sacramento area For more information, call

1-877-EV RENTAL, or check out the 1-877-EV Rental Web site For a fun story about a consumer’s first experience with renting an electric vehicle, visit My First Day With an EV1 From EV Rental Cars

1.6 Transport and Safety

A success story in transportation is safety for passengers Some countries have improved road geometry and imposed mandates to auto manufacturers for safer vehicular design They have also improved compliance of the population with seatbelt use and increased investment in medical technology (Noland, 2001) This has led to lower fatality and injury rates for motorists Better sidewalks, separate lanes for bicycles, traffic calming, and other pedestrian protective technologies were also met with considerable success Table 1.3 provides a brief overview and comparison with other countries (Figure 1.6)

Data from 1975 to 1998 (Davis, 2000) on fatalities by different vehicle sizes and modes show that pedestrian, bicyclist, and motorcycle safety is improving However, and inevitably by current technol-ogies, pedestrian safety is not improving as fast as desired to reach a zero incidence As motorization increases, because of interactions among different modes, these gains may not be sustained To address this, recent legislation, such as TEA-21, has motivated many states to set performance targets in decreasing fatalities This also creates unique opportunities for auto manufacturers willing to partner with government to improve the safety record of the United States In addition, fatalities in smaller vehicles (subcompact, compact, and intermediate passenger cars and light trucks) are increasingly following car ownership trends Some key findings in the safety arena worth noting here (Greene, 1999) are:

• A National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) study shows that a uniform decrease

in the weight of all cars in the United States will not improve the fatality record Instead, a decrease

in the light truck size and weight may yield major benefits

• The fleet distribution of vehicle weight (relative frequency of each vehicle class) is a major tributing factor Changes in vehicle size and weight that attempt to bring all vehicles on the road closer to each other in terms of mass and weight are more likely to yield safety benefits

con-The conclusion from these two points is that if subcompact and compact vehicles are substituted by larger and heavier vehicles and, at the same time, full-size and large trucks are replaced by smaller ones, we will see

a decrease in fatalities These gains will be more pronounced in regions where vehicles tend to exhibit some

sort of weight and size uniformity No evidence exists on the separate effects of size and weight (Greene, 1999) This increases the uncertainty about safety, energy efficiency, and the market At the same time, the use of lighter material will also lower vehicle weight, possibly increasing the occupants’ risk However, if technologies that improve other safety features are added, e.g., elimination of welding, electronics and information technology, and vehicle control enhancements, new vehicles may be safer Figure 1.7 illustrates the safety issue in U.S fatalities for smaller private cars and trucks Safety indicators are a sample of the interconnectedness in transportation decision making Energy efficiency and air pollution controls have influenced vehicle size and weight and, most important, vehicle size and weight diversity — first by making the U.S fleet more homogeneous, and then less homogeneous as the auto manufacturers discovered and used legislative loopholes This may have delayed safety improvements, but it also provides a strong momen-tum to work toward larger vehicles with less polluting engines The safety example is an illustration of complex interactions among policies that are enacted at the federal level; they are influenced by manufacturers and auto consumers, and they affect local communities as well as the manufacturers and the auto consumers.

1.7 Transportation Control Measures

Federal legislation targeting vehicle fuel economy and exhaust emissions is one of the emphases in curbing the negative effects of the automobile The other set of policy instruments, as mentioned above and reviewed extensively by Meyer and Miller (2001), are the transportation control measures

Ten years ago professionals actively involved with transportation planning practice reached a

wide-spread consensus about the inability of traditional transportation solutions to solve urban and suburban

congestion as well as the concomitant environmental problems Humphrey’s (1990) statement is a testimony to this realization:

Thus, it is timely to think about congestion from a broader perspective; and, further, strategies must

be developed that include a combination of innovative organizational approaches and new funding mechanisms as well as a wide range of transportation and land use actions

FIGURE 1.6 Safety indicators comparison (From U.S Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics 1999,

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., 2000.