Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects

Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects

JK Kaldellis and M Kapsali, Technological Education Institute of Piraeus, Athens, Greece

© 2012 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

2.02.2 Energy Consumption around the Planet

2.02.3 Electrical Power and Electrical Generation

2.02.4 Fossil Fuel Status of Our Planet

2.02.4.2 Natural Gas Data

2.02.5 The Role of RES and Fossil Fuels in the Energy Future of Our Planet

2.02.5.1 The Energy Balance of Our Planet

2.02.5.2 Time Depletion of Fossil Fuels

2.02.5.3 Environmental Impacts of Energy: Carbon Dioxide Emissions

2.02.5.4 Comparing RES and Fossil Fuels (Pros and Cons) with Emphasis on Wind Energy

2.02.6 Wind Power Status in the World Market

2.02.7 Time Evolution of the Major Wind Power Markets

2.02.8 Forecasting the Wind Power Time Evolution

2.02.9 The Future and Prospects of Wind Energy

References

Further Reading

Relevant Websites

Developing country A term generally used to describe a as fuel.

nation with a low level of material well-being Renewable-based electricity generation Electricity whichEnergy fuel mix The distribution within a given comes from natural resources such as sun, wind, tides, and geographical area, of the consumption of various energy geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally

sources (i.e., crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, replenished)

Fossil fuel A hydrocarbon deposit, such as petroleum, produced from thermal energy released by combustion of coal, or natural gas, derived from the accumulated a fuel or consumption of a fissionable material

2.02.1 Introduction

Survival of the humankind along with the majority of human activities are directly dependent on the exploitation of energy sources, with the continuous increase of global energy consumption being actually a reflection of the constant evolution of humankind, especially in the days following the industrial revolution During the time being, a transition may be noted from the early days of biomass (human power, animal power, wood, etc.), solar and wind energy exploitation, to the times

of today, where people’s welfare much relies on the consumption of fossil fuel reserves (oil, natural gas, and coal) and nuclear energy, with much faith presently given to the solution of nuclear fusion for the energy supply security of future generations [1]

In this context, if considering the huge amounts of energy consumed in the various sectors (i.e., industrial, residential, commercial, agricultural, stock farming, and transportation), one should emphasize on the critical role of energy in contemporary societies, not only as a measure of life quality [2] but also as an important factor of production processes On top of that, contribution of energy is also critical in the field of global water reserves’ management [3], while during the recent years, special attention has been given to issues of association between energy and the natural environment [4]

Energy use by modern people includes electrical energy consumption, mainly for the satisfaction of domestic needs as well as for the coverage of loads during work hours, and direct consumption of liquid fuels or natural gases for transportation and heating

MexicoUnited States

BrazilFranceGermanyGreeceTurkey

JapanPakistanWorld

Figure 1 Total primary energy consumption per capita (1980–2008) for selected countries

needs, while on top of that one should also consider the energy included in nutrition along with the embodied energy of products and services used on a daily basis

As a result of these activities, the average US resident uses on an annual basis almost 8.5 toe of primary energy (or 60 barrels of oil equivalent), while the corresponding energy consumption per capita in the biggest European countries and Japan is almost 4.5 toe (or 30 barrels of oil equivalent) (see also Figure 1) Besides, it is worthwhile mentioning that almost one-third of the above-mentioned energy consumption is attributed to the domestic sector and thus comprises direct energy use by each typical resident of a given country

On the other hand, primary energy consumption of the less-favored developing countries is by far lower than the one corresponding to the developed world and does not exceed 0.5 toe yr−1, while the global average is kept within the range of 1.9 toe yr−1, presenting an increase of approximately 15% during the last decade In this context, it is interesting to note that the average annual nutrition requirements of a person does not exceed 0.12 toe yr−1, with implications deriving from the comparison of figures given illustrating the current energy state of our planet

2.02.2 Energy Consumption around the Planet

In order to describe the energy consumption state of our planet, in Figure 2 one presents the long-term time evolution of primary energy consumption at a global and regional level during the last 30 years As it may be concluded from the information provided in the figure,

N America

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year Figure 2 Primary energy consumption time evolution (1980–2008) globally and per region

there is a remarkable increase of the global primary energy consumption during the specific period that reaches approximately 80%, while at the regional level, one may distinguish the cases of China and India where an impressive increase is recorded [5]

Considering the above, relation between population increase and primary energy consumption is designated [6], especially in cases of developing countries where one should also consider the vast need for the improvement of life quality that also leads to the increase of energy consumption per capita On the other hand, however, technology advancements, more rational use of energy resources, and efforts toward energy saving comprise the main elements of deceleration for the constant increase of primary energy consumption, especially in the industrially developed countries of our planet [7]

Meanwhile, based on the latest official data (see also Figure 3), the world population has increased rapidly since 1950 from 2.5 billion to almost 7 billion people in 2010, while it is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 What is even more interesting, however, is the fact that the increase recorded is attributed to the population of developing countries, reaching nowadays a total of 6 billion people Keep in mind that although in the specific regions primary energy consumption per capita was up to now kept quite low, constant development of local economies shall lead to considerable improvement of life quality standards and thus to an outbreak of primary energy consumption at a global level

In view of the expected increase of the global primary energy consumption, Figure 4 presents the long-term time evolution of the energy fuel mix of our planet during the last 30 years As it may accrue from the data given in the figure, energy demand of our planet

is primarily covered by the use of fossil fuel reserves at the dominant percentage of over 90%, while participation of renewable

Figure 3 World population growth (1950–2008) [8, 9]

Figure 4 World primary energy consumption evolution by fuel type (total energy consumption for 2008 ≈ 12 400 Mtoe)

2000 2025 2050

02000

United StatesRest N.

America

Centr

al & S Amer

ica Europe Eurasia

Middle East

Africa China India Japan

Rest Asia & Oceania

2.02.3 Electrical Power and Electrical Generation

Among the most user-friendly forms of energy used in the industrialized regions of our planet nowadays is electricity In fact, according to the most recent data, the installed capacity of electricity power stations globally is now reaching 5000 GWe, with the respective annual electricity production exceeding 20 000 TWhe This actually corresponds to average electricity consumption per capita in the order of 3000 kWhe yr−1

More precisely, according to the data presented in Figure 5, during the last 30 years the installed electrical power capacity is more than doubled, that is, from 2000 GWe in 1980 to almost 5000 GWe in 2010, mainly owed to the activity encountered in China (especially during the last decade) and the United States In fact, the installed electrical power capacity at the near end of the previous decade in the United States exceeded 1000 GWe, majority of which corresponds to thermal power stations, with the respective RES share not exceeding 120 GWe and with the contribution of wind power represented (in 2010) by a total of 40 GWe (see also Figure 6) Second in the list of installed power capacity is Europe with a total of more than 900, 170, and 85 GWe out of

Figure 5 Total installed electricity capacity time evolution (GWe)

Figure 6 Distribution of the installed electricity capacity per region in 2008

Thermal 66%

Pumped-hydro storage 2%

Nuclear 8%

Wind 3%

Rest RES 2%

Hydroelectric 19%

Figure 7 Distribution of the globally installed electric power capacity per source (2008)

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Figure 8 World electricity generation evolution by fuel type (1998–2008)

which (in 2010) hydropower and wind power, respectively Finally, in the third place of the list, one may encounter China [12, 13] with a total installed capacity of approximately 800 GWe, largely configured by the participation of large-scale hydropower plants (180 GWe) and wind power (exceeding 40 GWe at the end of 2010)

In total, two-thirds of the planet’s installed electrical power capacity regard thermal power stations (coal- natural gas- and oil-fired), 19% concerns hydropower stations, 8% corresponds to nuclear power, and 3% is attributed to wind parks (in 2008) (Figure 7) with a total of approximately 200 GWe by the end of 2010

Accordingly, Figure 8 presents the energy production share of the above energy sources during the last 30 years, again at a global level Among the most interesting conclusions that one may obtain from the analysis of the figure is that there is almost a tripling of electricity generation during the period of study, covered mainly (around 70%) from the operation of thermal power stations On the other hand, what can also be designated is the consistent role of hydropower throughout the period, as well as the recently emerged wind energy sector achieving an electricity generation contribution of 2% during the last years In fact, exploitation of wind energy and hydropower for the purpose of electricity production comprises an established practice with fairly good results, expected

to dominate among other RES in the forthcoming years

At this point, it should be noted that although at the moment electrical power mainly derives from thermal power stations, RES-based electricity generation is expected to be the fastest-growing source of energy throughout the world over the next years, followed by coal-fired generation [14] More precisely, world renewable-based electricity generation is estimated to grow by about 3% annually during the period from 2007 to 2035, with the cumulative RES share increasing from 18% in 2007 to 23% in 2035 (i.e., an increase of 4500 TWhe over an increase of the total electricity demand from 18 800 to 35 000 TWhe) In this context, hydropower and wind energy are expected to contribute to future RES energy production increase by 54% and 26%, respectively (see also Figure 9) Besides, of great interest is also the investigation of RES penetration in the strongest economies of our planet, given in Figure 10

As one may see, the EU presents a steady increase rate in the development of RES applications that has since the end of the previous millennium exceeded the respective electricity generation of the United States kept between 300 and 400 TWh for most of the time

Figure 10 Renewables generation evolution (1980–2008) globally and per region

In addition, the remarkable activity encountered in China should also be underlined, with the starting generation of 1980 (80 TWhe) now reaching a total of 600 TWhe, threatening the leading position of the EU Finally, Japan presents a long-term steady state of RES electricity generation at 100 TWhe, while overall, it is fair to say that the significant increase of RES electricity generation recorded during the last years at the global level is mainly attributed to the development of the wind energy sector [16]

To further examine the role of RES, the diachronic evolution of RES mix for the last 30 years, excluding hydropower, is presented

in Figure 11 As one may see, participation of RES (excluding hydropower) during the 1980s was rather limited, kept at the levels of

50 TWhe and being mainly attributed to biomass-based and geothermal power plants Accordingly, in the second half of the 1990s, gradual increase of wind energy recorded is since then comprising the main driver of RES electricity generation increase, exceeding

200 TWhe on an annual basis

Moreover, what is also interesting to see is the time evolution of generating capacity of all technologies in the EU during the time from 1995 to 2009 [17] As one may see in Figure 12, during the last 2 years, new wind power capacity exceeds any other technology with more than 10 GWe of wind power installed in 2009 Additionally, in terms of cumulative installations (see also Figure 13), European wind farms exceed oil-based generation by 20 GW and are down by 50 GW when compared to nuclear power In fact, the developing rate of wind energy capacity is only comparable to the respective of natural gas installations, with

Figure 11 Renewables electricity generation (1980–2008), excluding hydro

Annual Capacity Distribution of New Power Plants Installed in Europe (1995−2009)

Other

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 12 Time evolution of annual power capacity installations in the EU by technology type Based on data from Eurostat (2010) Energy

statistics-infrastructure http://epp.eurostat.ec europa.eu/ (accessed December 2010)

the remarkable growth of photovoltaic plants [18] also designating the shift attempted in the EU to clean power generation technologies

In conclusion, if considering the energy state at a global level, it becomes clear that to encounter the constantly increasing energy demand, considerable contribution of RES is critical In this context, given the developing stage of each RES technology, it is expected that for the next 20 years wind energy will be the main driver of RES energy generation

2.02.4 Fossil Fuel Status of Our Planet

2.02.4.1 Oil Data

It is an indisputable fact that oil exploitation has during the last century determined the evolution of the global economy, with today’s emphatic numbers describing a situation where the daily oil consumption is almost equal to 90 million barrels (or 4500 Mtoe yr−1) (see also Figure 14) Given also the fact that the daily oil requirements of the United States reach 20 million barrels and that the respective number for EU and China is 10 million barrels, what is also indisputable is the dominant role of industrial regions to the consumption of oil reserves On the other hand, the main oil producers are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States (see also Figure 15), with the latter comprising an importer rather than a producer Furthermore, in Table 1 one may

Cumulative Installed Capacity of Power Stations

Figure 14 Oil annual consumption evolution (1980–2008)

also find the 15 countries that are responsible for 75% of the global oil production, these including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, UAE, Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, and Nigeria, as well as China and Norway, with the latter being the only European country exhibiting remarkable oil production

At the same time, proven global oil reserves are at the moment [20] estimated at the levels of 1350 billion barrels, that is, double the respective reserves of 1980 estimations, underlining the technological developments met in the field of detection and exploitation of oil deposits Distribution of proven oil reserves is provided by Figure 16, with 55% found in the Arabic world

On the other hand, oil reserves of EU and Japan are negligible

In the meantime, efforts have been recorded during the last years for the exploitation of tar sands (mainly in North America) and slate rocks containing large quantities of oil Any case given however, the dramatic increase of global energy demand requiring at the moment contribution of oil equal to more than 30 billion barrels per year challenges the finite character of oil reserves and puts depletion sometime in the near future

2–4

1–2

<1

Figure 15 World oil production in 2008 (million barrels per day) [19]

Table 1 Top world oil producers (1000 barrels per day), 2009 [19]

Rank Country Production, 2008 Production, 2009

8%

Figure 16 Distribution of crude oil proved reserves in 2010 Based on data from U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) International energy statistics http://tonto.eia.doe.gov (accessed February 2011)

2.02.4.2 Natural Gas Data

Even though oil comprised the main source of energy for the satisfaction of the constantly increasing energy demand in the first three-fourths of the twentieth century, natural gases are now the most popular and at the same time widely accepted (due to their improved environmental attributes in comparison with oil) source of energy [21] In this context, during the last 30 years, consumption of natural gases has more than doubled (see also Figure 17), reaching today a quantity of

3000 billion m3 per year that is mainly absorbed by the energy markets of the United States and EU On the contrary, contribution of natural gases in the energy balance of China being rather limited is much attributed to its relatively high price and the use of domestic fuels such as coal

Proven reserves of natural gases are nowadays estimated at the levels of 200 trillion m3, increased by 50% when compared with the respective estimations 20 years ago, while what should be underlined is that according to the geographical distribution given in Figure 18, natural gas reserves are more dispersed than the corresponding of oil In fact, one-fourth is located in the Russia region, 40% is found in Arabic countries like Iran and Qatar, and less than 5% belongs to the EU region

2.02.4.3 Coal Data

Utilization of coal was the main driver of the industrial revolution, strongly supporting technological developments up until the middle of the twentieth century Accordingly, coal was gradually replaced first by the use of oil and later on by the use of natural gases, with more severe environmental impacts and lower energy content being its main disadvantages during this gradual shift of fossil fuel exploitation for energy generation purposes Nevertheless, both its low cost and wide dispersion all over the planet have recently revived the interest for coal exploitation [22], leading to a considerable increase of coal-derived energy production mainly

Figure 17 Annual natural gas consumption evolution (1980–2009)

Rest United States Venezuela

Russia

3%

Algeria 2%

United Arab Emirates

Europe 3%

Iran Qatar

3%

16%

Iraq 2%

Figure 18 Distribution of natural gas proved reserves in 2010 Based on data from U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) International energy statistics http://tonto.eia.doe.gov (accessed February 2011)

10%

Russia

Kazakhstan 4%

United States 29%

South Africa

Australia 9%

China 14%

4%

Ukraine

Figure 20 Distribution of proved reserves of recoverable coal in 2009 Based on data from BP (2010) BP statistical review of world energy 2010

in China where 50% of the respective global production is consumed (see also Figure 19) Note that today global coal consumption exceeds 3600 Mtoe, with the EU using only 8%

Furthermore, proven global reserves are at the moment estimated at the levels of 830 billion tons, with the respective energy content however being much dependent on the composition of reserves configuring the respective specific calorific value On the other hand, it becomes evident that coal reserves present the highest adequacy levels among other fossil fuels [23], while according to the results of Figure 20, the greatest reserves are located in the United States, Russia, and China Considerable are also the reserves located in countries such as India, Australia, and South Africa Contrariwise, the EU concentrates less than 5% of the planet’s reserves, mainly in Poland and Germany, while even the United Kingdom, although comprising one of the main producers during the mid-term of the previous century has much limited its reliance on coal and is now importing most of the quantities required

2.02.5 The Role of RES and Fossil Fuels in the Energy Future of Our Planet

2.02.5.1 The Energy Balance of Our Planet

According to the information available up to now [25], the main energy flow of our planet derives from the incident solar radiation

on the surface of the earth, providing a constant power flux of approximately 173 000 TW In addition, a comparatively limited

At this point, one should keep in mind that the total electricity consumption of our planet does not exceed 20 000 TWhe on an annual basis, that is, 0.6% of the aforementioned wind and wave energy; however, coverage of the planet’s electrical energy demand

on the basis of these energy sources is at the moment not thought to be feasible On the other hand, one should not disregard the fact that according to today’s evidence wind energy could provide an actual contribution that would much exceed the current wind energy production of 400 TWhe (in 2010)

Contrariwise, current primary energy consumption on an annual basis is determined by the use of almost 30 billion barrels of oil, 3 trillion m3 of natural gases and 3.6 billion toe of coal, with the respective proven reserves being 1350 billion barrels,

190 trillion m3, and 830 billion toes Furthermore, the annual consumption of nuclear energy, estimated at the levels of

600 Mtoe, is in the absence of proven reserves of nuclear fuels not providing a clear picture concerning the future of nuclear power Considering the situation so far, it seems that humanity was during the last century possessed by an urge to overexploit the valuable energy reserves of our planet, without any sustainable development considerations in practice [26], leaving at the same time the infinite and practically nondepleted RES potential unexploited, with wind energy being the most descriptive example 2.02.5.2 Time Depletion of Fossil Fuels

According to many, profound reading of the above given numbers reflects the immediate danger of depletion for the fossil fuel reserves of our planet that would at the same time signal the coming of an early era of energy poverty for humankind On the other hand however, according to the beliefs of others, discovery of new deposits and exploitation of new ones already known but not yet utilized due to techno-economic reasons will maintain adequacy of fossil fuel reserves [27]

In this context, by assuming that ‘Eo ’ is the current annual energy consumption and that the total proven energy reserves of the planet are equal to ‘Et ’, one may estimate the expected time of depletion using the following set of equations More precisely, by considering that the future annual energy consumption at the global level ‘E(n) ’ after ‘n’ years is estimated on the basis of the mean annual rate of increase/decrease of energy consumption ‘e’ as:

Nevertheless, the aim of the specific analysis is the illustration of results (see also Figure 21) showing that if the quantity of reserves is even 10 or 100 times the quantity of current proven reserves the depletion time is only prolonged for 80 and 150 years, respectively Keep in mind however that in the second case one has to assume that existing reserves are 100 times the ones currently thought as proven, which may be considered as an extreme assumption

2.02.5.3 Environmental Impacts of Energy: Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The energy sector of production, transmission, distribution and final use is thought to be the one inducing the most severe environmental impacts [29] Note, however, that environmental impacts vary considerably among different alternatives, especially between conventional fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, and RES such as wind energy, solar energy, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy Nevertheless, since the evaluation of energy sources on the basis of environmental criteria is out of the scope of the specific chapter, further analysis is not thought to be required, although some insight concerning the most detrimental environmental issue of our times, that is, climate change, is given in the following

Figure 21 Effect of the base year proven reserves energy content ‘Et’ value on the planet fossil fuels depletion time

In this context and according to the experts of the field, climate change is thought to be directly related with the overproduction

of carbon dioxide emissions, due to anthropogenic activities [30] Carbon dioxide, which is by far the most well known greenhouse gas, is produced from the complete combustion of carbon on the basis of the following chemical equation

Based on the stoichiometric relation, if 1 kg of carbon is combusted, then 3.67(≈ 44/12) kg of carbon dioxide are released in the atmosphere, on top of the produced heat As a result, use of conventional fuels containing carbon is directly related with the production of additional amounts of carbon dioxide and thus with the risk of climate change

In this context, Figure 22 presents the long-term evolution of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide production for the last 30 years According to the data presented, there is a tremendous increase of carbon dioxide emissions since 1980, reaching 60%, and exceeding

30 000 Mt in 2008 Among the most heavily aggravated countries, one may encounter the United States and China, with the latter being responsible for the production of more than 25% of the entire planet’s carbon dioxide emissions (see also Figure 23)

In order to further investigate the magnitude of the problem under examination, which is also much dependent on the extreme consumption of carbon containing fuels, in Table 2 one presents the time evolution of the carbon dioxide emissions per capita for the most populated countries of our planet According to the numbers, the United States presents the highest climate aggravation with the average carbon dioxide emission production being equal to 17.7 t per capita, while China has exceeded the respective

China United States

Rest Asia & Oceania

3%

Russia 5%

Rest Former USSR

Rest Europe 1%

EU-27 13%

Middle East 6%

Africa 4%

China 25%

India 5%

North America 3%

Central & South America 4%

18%

Japan 4%

Figure 23 Distribution of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in 2009 Based on data from U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) International energy statistics http://tonto.eia.doe.gov (accessed February 2011)

planet average and is now approaching 6 t per capita, although in the beginning of the 1980s, the respective number was below 1.5 t per capita Furthermore, EU countries present carbon dioxide emission production in the area of 7–9 t per capita, with the EU’s efforts for the reduction of emissions during the last decade illustrated in Table 2

Finally, it should be noted that the planet average kept for a long time at the levels of 4 t per capita is now reaching 4.5 t per capita, presenting an increase that exceeds 10% Hence, it is expected that unless the current energy production patterns begin to alter in the following years, the problem of carbon dioxide emissions’ overproduction will become even more severe, especially if also considering the trends of emission production per capita in the most populated areas of the planet including India (see also Table 2) At this point, emphasis must be given on the fact that wind energy –as most of RES – is an environmentally friendly energy source, with wind farms producing minimum carbon dioxide emissions even on a life-cycle basis evaluation [31]

Table 2 Annual CO2 emissions per capita from energy consumption in the largest (on the basis of their population) countries in the world