Kaplan China Intl Development Syllabus Summer 14

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIESJohns Hopkins University CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: RETHINKING ECONOMIC REFORM AND TRANSFORMATION Office hours by appointment COURSE DES

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Johns Hopkins University CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT:

RETHINKING ECONOMIC REFORM AND TRANSFORMATION

Office hours by appointment

COURSE DESCRIPTION

China’s success since the late 1970s challenges Western thinking about development in a number of significant ways Yet, the development field rarely attempts to learn from the country’s experience

This course will examine why China has succeeded in transforming its economy when most developing countries have not, and explicitly seek lessons from the comparison It highlights a number of specific strategies that guided China’s approach to development and modernization, and shows how these differ from Western orthodoxy Readings and lectures combine material on China with material from the development field Where relevant, the course will bring in readings about other countries in East Asia that have shared a similar record of achievement The course won’t whitewash the difficulties the Chinese model currently faces, but will maintain a focus on its three decades of success The course will leverage the instructors’ seven years experience running businesses in China (and eleven years working in Asia) and his intimate knowledge of the country and society in offering a unique perspective on its lessons for the rest of the developing world His experience working on fragile states issues will provide ample material for comparison

The course will appeal to two distinct audiences: 1) anyone interested in development and economic transformation and why most of the developing world has failed to achieve these things; 2) people who want to better understand contemporary China and how it has achieved its great gains since the late 1970s Understanding China and how countries modernize is invaluable for a wide range of careers, whether working for international agencies, multilateral organizations, non-profit organizations, corporations, or

governments

COURSE WORK

All students will be a “reader” responsible for part of the homework reading one time during the course During their assigned week, readers will be expected to give a 15-20 minute presentation on the indicated readings and lead a 10-15 minute question and answer session (30 minutes total time) that engages and involves their colleagues

Readers should come prepared with three or four discussion questions I will help you develop a sound agenda if necessary, and will act as co-discussion leader in class if requested

All students will be expected to come to each session with their own questions based on the reading and knowledge about different countries around the world They should actively engage in class discussions and raise their own issues Participation is highly valued

Two classes are set aside towards the end of the term for student presentations Assuming the class size is not too large, each student will make a 15-20 minutes presentation of a topic from his or her research paper during one of these classes This will be followed by questions and discussion (30 minutes total time) If necessary, a number of the last few classes may be extended up to 30 minutes to accommodate all presentations (* in such cases, the class may end as late as 830pm)

Each student must write an original research paper on an approved topic related to China

or inclusive development Final papers must be 6000 to 8000 words long, submitted as hard copies, and use 12 point Times Roman fonts, normal margins, single-spacing for the lines, but six point spacing after each paragraph Footnotes should be cited according to http://www.oberlin.edu/faculty/svolk/citation.htm Papers must be supported by proper attribution of sources In developing the papers, you must observe the following

schedule: 1) Identification of paper topic and one paragraph statement of thesis (which require approval) are due no later than the end of class #7; 2) An outline, including major organizational plan of paper and bibliography of primary sources, are due no later than the end of class #10; 3) Papers are due on the final exam date

There will be a take home midterm exam, but no final exam

Grading will be based on the midterm (15%), reader’s presentation (15%), paper

presentation (15%), paper (40%), and class participation (15%) The midterm will be evaluated based on (in order or importance): 1) how well the student makes use of the concepts learned in class and the readings; 2) the quality of the argument; 3) the quality

of the writing The final paper will be evaluated based on (in order or importance): 1) the quality of the argument; 2) the quality of the research; 3) the ability to make use of the concepts learned in class and the readings; 4) the quality of the writing Students are encouraged to ask the instructor if any of this is unclear

Late papers will be penalized a grade increment (e.g A- to B+) per day A failure to attribute sources will have adverse consequences on the grade of the paper

HONOR CODE

Enrollment at SAIS obligates each student to conduct all activities in accordance with the rules and spirit of the school’s Honor Code The Honor Code governs student conduct at SAIS It covers all activities in which students present information as their own,

including written papers, examinations, oral presentations and materials submitted to potential employers or other educational institutions It requires that students be truthful and exercise integrity and honesty in their dealings with others, both inside SAIS and in the larger community While the Honor code goes well beyond plagiarism, it is important that each student understand what is and what is not plagiarism The Turnitin software is available to faculty in detecting plagiarism Plagiarism will definitely result in failure of the paper or exam and may result in failing the course depending on the judgment of the professor

REQUIRED READING

Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave Macmillan,

2013)

Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, 1978-1993

(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995)

Fragile States Resource Center

http://www.fragilestates.org/

SUPPLEMENTAL READING

Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport, CT:

Praeger Security International, 2008)

Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT

Press, 2007)

World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy (Oxford:

Oxford University Press, 1993)

Henry Rowen (ed.), Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (New York: Routledge, 1998).

China-DAC Study Group, “Economic Transformation and Poverty Reduction: How It Happened in China, Helping it Happen in Africa,” Volume One: Main Findings and Policy Implications (Paris: OECD, 2011)

Robert Wade, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004).

Douglass North, John Wallis, Steven Webb, and Barry Weingast (ed.), In the Shadow of Violence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013).

Contemporary popular nonfiction books on China:

Contemporary Chinese novels:

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/10/15/found-in-translation-five-chinese-books-you-should-read/

Wall Street Journal China Real Time

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/

SCHEDULE Week 1 Introduction

Required Readings (about 150 pages):

 Michael Elliott, “Thirty Years After Deng: The Man Who Changed China,” Time,

December 10, 2008,

http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1865539,00.html#ixzz2oWXfO ULE

 Damien Ma, “After 20 Years of 'Peaceful Evolution,' China Faces Another

Historic Moment,” The Atlantic, January 23, 2012,

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/after-20-years-of-peaceful-evolution-china-faces-another-historic-moment/251764/

 James Fallows, “China Makes, The World Takes,” The Atlantic, July/August

2007, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/07/china-makes-the-world-takes/305987/

 “Deng’s Southern Tour,” Special Coverage, Global Times (China), January 2012,

http://www.globaltimes.cn/SPECIALCOVERAGE/Dengssoutherntour.aspx

 Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski, “China’s Great Economic Transformation,” in

China’s Great Economic Transformation, ed Brandt and Rawski (Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press, 2008), 1-8

 Barry Naughton, Growing Out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform,

1978-1993 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 26-55, 59-64, and 94-96.

 Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge,

MA: MIT Press, 2007), 3-12, 17-30, and 79-83 [55-79 optional]

 Chenggang Xu, “The Fundamental Institutions of China’s Reforms and

Development,” Journal of Economic Literature 49 no 4 (2011): 1076-1081.

 Yingyi Qian, “How Reform Worked in China,” William Davidson Working Paper

no 473, The William Davidson Institute, University of Michigan Business

School, June 2002, 1-7,

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/39858/wp473.pdf

 Douglass North, John Wallis, Steven Webb and Barry Weingast, “Limited Access Orders in the Developing World: A New Approach to the Problems of

Development”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #4359, September

2007, 2-44 (double spaced)

 Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), 1-12 and 28-39

 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave

Macmillan, 2013), chapter 6

Supplemental Readings (to better understand the Chinese political system)

 Susan Lawrence, Understanding China’s Political System (Washington, DC:

Congressional Research Service, 2013)

Questions:

 How does China’s performance compare to other developing countries since the late 1970s?

 How did China’s situation in the late 1970s compare to other developing

countries?

 What led China’s leaders to embark on reform? What was the role of leadership?

 Does China follow the East Asian Model?

 How does China’s institutions compare with other developing countries?

 How does China’s rise challenge development orthodoxy?

Week 2 Aim for economic transformation and inclusive growth

Required Readings (about 145 pages):

 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave

Macmillan, 2013), chapters 4 and 5

 World Bank, The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy

(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993), 1-48 and Box 1.3 (page 59)

 Jose Edgardo Campos and Hilton Root, The Key to the Asian Miracle: Making Shared Growth Credible (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1996), 50-75.

 “Economic Transformation and Development,” Economics and Private Sector PEAKS e-bulletin, December 2013, http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/?

u=18393a2d78fa6e1a10fbbab34&id=969832be54

 Dirk Willem te Velde, “Shifting the Development Debate to Jobs, Productivity

Change and Structural Transformation,” Overseas Development Institute Blog,

March 18, 2013, http://www.odi.org.uk/opinion/7322-shifting-development-debate-jobs-productivity-change-structural-transformation

 Dani Rodrik “Africa’s Structural Transformation Challenge,” Project Syndicate,

December 12, 2013, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dani-rodrik- shows-why-sub-saharan-africa-s-impressive-economic-performance-is-not-sustainable

 Richard Dowden, “Africa’s Rising Rage: The Middle Classes Call for

Revolution,” African Arguments, February 7, 2012,

http://africanarguments.org/2013/02/07/africa%E2%80%99s-rising-rage-the-middle-classes-call-for-revolution-%E2%80%93-by-richard-dowden/

 African Center for Economic Transformation, “Growing Rapidly—Transforming Slowly,” Preview of the 2013 African Transformation Report (Accra, Ghana: ACET, 2013),

http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/content/download/56269/504798/version/1/file/ ACET+Africa+Transformation+combined+low-res+0524.pdf

 “The Service Elevator: Can Poor Countries Leapfrog Manufacturing and Grow

Rich on Services?, Economist, May 19, 2011,

http://www.economist.com/node/18712351

 “India’s Demographic Challenge: Wasting Time,” Economist, May 11, 2013,

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21577373-india-will-soon-have-fifth-worlds-working-age-population-it-urgently-needs-provide

 Victor Mallet, “India’s Growth Hides Stagnant Jobs Market,” Financial Times,

November 29, 2012

 Chandrahas Choudhury, “India's Economy Leaves Job Growth in the Dust,”

Bloomberg World View, March 14, 2013,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/india-s-economy-leaves-job-growth-in-the-dust.html

 Kristin Lord, “A New Millennium of Knowledge? The Arab Human

Development Report on Building a Knowledge Society, Five Years On,”

Executive Summary (Washington: The Brookings Institution, 2008),

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2008/04/arab-human-development-lord

 Adeel Malik and Bassem Awadallah, “The Economics of the Arab Spring,”

Middle East Insights 46 (Singapore: Middle East Institute, November 23, 2011),

http://www.mei.nus.edu.sg/publications/mei-insights/the-economics-of-the-arab-spring

Questions:

 What is economic (or structural) transformation?

 What is the role of manufacturing in transformation?

 What is the relationship between transformation and the state?

 How does a country’s ability to transform affect development outcomes?

 Can we diagnose why most developing countries have failed achieve

transformation on anywhere near the scale of East Asia countries?

 What are the political consequences of a failure to transform?

Week 3 Leverage social cohesion and/or ideology to advance state building

Required Readings (about 150 pages and one video):

 Martin Jacques, “Civilization State Versus Nation-State,” Süddeutsche Zeitung, January 15, 2011, http://www.martinjacques.com/articles/civilization-state-versus-nation-state-2/

 Martin Jacques, “Understanding the Rise of China,” TED Talk, TED Salon, London, October 2010,

http://www.ted.com/talks/martin_jacques_understanding_the_rise_of_china.html

 Jerry Muller, “Us and Them: The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism,”

Foreign Affairs 87, no 2 (March/April, 2008): 18-35.

 Henry Rowen, “The Political and Social Foundations of the Rise of East Asia: An

Overview,” in Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations

of Prosperity, ed Rowen (New York: Routledge, 1998), 1-31 and 341-47.

 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave

Macmillan, 2013), chapter 7

 William Easterly, Jozef Ritzen, and Michael Woolcock, Social Cohesion,

Institutions, and Growth, Working Paper No 94 (Washington, DC: Center for

Global Development, August 2006), 1-16

 Laura Routley, “Developmental States: A Review of the Literature,” ESID Working Paper no 3 (Manchester, UK: Effective States and Inclusive

Development Research Centre, February 2012), 4-38

 Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport,

CT: Praeger Security International, 2008), chapter 2

 Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills, “Introduction: Managing Fault Lines in the

Twenty-first Century” in On the Fault Line: Managing Tensions and Divisions Within Societies, ed Herbst, Terence McNamee, and Mills (London: Profile

Books, 2012), 1-16

 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for

Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule

of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands,

December 12-14, 2012), introduction and lesson #8

 Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions

(London: Allen Lane, 2013), excerpt, http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=16791

 Seth Kaplan, “Horizontal Versus Vertical Social Cohesion: Why the Differences

Matter,” Fragile States Resource Center, March 12, 2012,

http://www.fragilestates.org/2012/03/12/horizontal-versus-vertical-social-cohesion-why-the-differences-matter/

 Harith Hasan al-Qarawee, “Iraq — Exclusionary State Building Naturally Leads

to Violence,” Fragile States Resource Center, July 4, 2013,

http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/07/04/iraq-exclusionary-state-building-naturally-leads-to-violence/

Readers: Discuss how the past informs how leaders behave

Questions

 What is the connection between nationalism and development?

 How is China similar to and different from other nation states?

 What is a developmental state?

 How does ideology affect the decisions of leaders?

 How do stark social divisions hold back development and inclusive growth?

 What affects how elites and leaders think about development?

Week 4 Create a stable political coalition committed to development

Required Readings (about 150 pages):

 Jacques deLisle, “Politics and Governance in the People’s Republic of China: From “A Revolution is not a Dinner Party” to “To Get Rich is Glorious” to

Creating a “Harmonious Society,” Footnotes 16, no 7, Foreign Policy Research

Institute, August 2011,

http://www.fpri.org/footnotes/1607.201108.delisle.china.html (11 pages)

 Andrew Walder, “The Party Elite and China’s Trajectory of Change,” in Kjeld

Erik Brodsgaard and Zheng Yongnian (ed.), The Chinese Communist Party in Reform (New York: Routledge, 2006), 15-31.

 Reza Hasmath, “The Secret to the Chinese Communist Party’s Success,” The Conversation, November 13, 2012,

http://theconversation.com/the-secret-to-the-chinese-communist-partys-success-10675

 Minxin Pei, “How Beijing Kept its Grip on Power,” Financial Times, June 2,

2009,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c815b624-4fa9-11de-a692-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2oWCFtIvx

 Peter Lewis, Growing Apart: Oil, Politics, and Economic Change in Indonesia and Nigeria (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2007), 1-21 [worth

reading: 28, 42-53, 77-85, 256-67, and 268-95]

 Seth Kaplan, Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development (Westport,

CT: Praeger Security International, 2008), chapter 3

 Lindsay Whitfield and Ole Therkildsen, “What Drives States to Support the Development of Productive Sectors? Strategies Ruling Elites Pursue for Political Survival and Their Policy Implications,” Danish Institute for International Studies Working Paper 2011:15 (Copenhagen: Elites, Production and Poverty Program, September 2011), 7-30

 “Coalition Building in a Divided Society: Bihar State, India, 2005-2009,” Rohan Mukherjee, ISS-Princeton, July 2010,

http://www.princeton.edu/successfulsocieties/content/focusareas/DC/policynotes/ view.xml?id=128, 1-10

 Tim Kelsall and David Booth, Developmental Patrimonialism? Questioning the Orthodoxy on Political Governance and Economic Progress in Africa, Working

Paper No 9 (London: Africa Power and Politics Programme, July 2010), 1-27

 Gareth Williams, Alex Duncan, Pierre Landell-Mills, and Sue Unsworth, “Politics

and Growth,” Development Policy Review 29 no S1 (January 2011), S29-53.

 Adrian Leftwich, “Thinking and Working Politically: What Does It Mean, Why Is

It Important and How Do You Do It?,” in Politics, Leadership, and Coalitions in Development: Policy Implications of the DLP Research Evidence, Developmental

Leadership Program Research and Policy Workshop Background Papers,

Frankfurt, Germany, March 2011, 3-11

 David Booth, APPP Policy Brief, Development as a Collective Action Problem: Addressing the Real Challenges of African Governance, October 2012, 1-4

 Seth Kaplan, “Creating Legitimacy in Weak States: Inclusiveness and

Impartiality,” Fragile States Resource Center, October 4, 2013,

http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/10/04/creating-legitimacy-in-weak-states-inclusiveness-and-impartiality/

Readers: Discuss China’s ruling coalition and their incentives to promote development Questions:

 What incentivizes ruling groups to promote development?

 Why is coalition building so important to this process?

 What makes the CCP so oriented towards developing the country?

 What makes the CCP so strong and cohesive a ruling party?

 Why can’t most developing countries replicate the CCP’s track record?

 What political changes might improve their performance?

Week 5 Build an effective, institutionalized government committed to

inclusive development

Required Readings (about 150 pages):

 Francis Fukuyama, The Origins of Political Order (New York: Farrar, Straus, and

Giroux, 2011), 290-317

 Francis Fukuyama, “What is Governance?,” American Interest Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Blog, January 31, 2012,

http://www.the-american-interest.com/fukuyama/2012/01/31/what-is-governance/

 Francis Fukuyama, “What is Governance?,” Governance 26, no 3 (July 2013):

366-67 [whole article worth reading]

 Francis Fukuyama, “The Patterns of History,” Journal of Democracy 23, no 1

(January 2012): 14-26

 Kjeld Erik Brødsgaard, “Governing Capacity and Institutional Change in China in

the Reform Era,” The Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies 28, no 1 (2010):

20-33

 Peter Evans, “Transferable Lessons? Re-examining the Institutional Prerequisites

of East Asian Economic Policies,” Journal of Developmental Studies 34, no 6

(August 1998): 66-83

 Hilton Root, “The Search for Good Governance,” Small Countries Big Lessons: Governance and the Rise of East Asia (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press,

1996), 145-77

 Mushtaq Khan, Governance, Economic Growth, and Development Since the 1960s,” United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Working Paper 54, August 2007, 1-21

 Tony Blair, Not Just Aid: How Making Government Work Can Transform Africa

(public address at the Center for Global Development, Washington, D.C.,

December 16, 2010), 1-16

 Seth Kaplan, Betrayed: Politics, Power, and Prosperity (New York: Palgrave

Macmillan, 2013), chapter 8

 Lant Pritchett and Frauke de Weijer, Fragile States: Stuck in a Capability Trap?

World Development Report 2011: Background Papers, 2010 [scan main points]

 Seth Kaplan, “Development with Chinese Characteristics: Ten Lessons for Policymakers,” presented at “The State in Asia: Power, Citizenship and the Rule

of Law” conference organized by Leiden University (Leiden, Netherlands, December 12-14, 2012), lesson #3

 Seth Kaplan, “What Have We Learned About Institutional Change?,” Fragile States Resource Center, July 18, 2013,

http://www.fragilestates.org/2013/07/18/what-have-we-learned-about-institutional-change/

Readers: What is effective governance?

Questions:

 How does effective governance differ from good governance? Why is the former

so important?

 Why is it important that states are institutionalized?

 What institutions underpin East Asian developmental states?

 What explains the effectiveness of the Chinese state?

 How institutionalized is the Chinese state?

 Why do institutional reforms produce little change in many less developed countries (LDCs)?

Week 6 Focus on reworking incentives, removing obstacles to growth, and increasing competition / Experiment with new policies first, implement reforms gradually

Required Readings (about 150 pages):