Energy futures and urban air pollution

Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States.. and Chinese committee members and the trove of data available on worldwide energy resources and consum

Urban China and the United States

Development, Security and CooperationPolicy and Global Affairs

In collaboration with

THE NATIoNAl ACADEmIES PrESS

Washington, D.C

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of Medicine The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by funding from the National Academies Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

Suggested citation: National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council

2008 Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States

Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

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Dr Ralph J Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

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the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers

It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers Dr Charles M Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

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URBAN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

U.S Committee

John WATSON, Chair, Desert Research Institute, Nevada

Dave ALLEN, University of Texas at Austin, Texas

Roger BEZDEK, Management Information Services, Inc., Washington, D.C Judith CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Nevada

Bart CROES, California Air Resources Board, California

Glen DAIGGER, CH2M Hill, Inc., Colorado

David HAWKINS, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C Philip HOPKE, Clarkson University, New York

Jana MILFORD, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado

Armistead RUSSELL, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia

Jitendra J SHAH, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.

Michael WALSH, Consultant, Virginia

Staff

Jack FRITZ, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering

(through April 2006)

Lance DAVIS, Executive Officer, National Academy of Engineering

Proctor REID, Director, Program Office, National Academy of Engineering John BORIGHT, Executive Director, International Affairs, National Research

HE Fei, Peking University, Beijing

JIN Hongguang, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy

of Sciences, Beijing

TANG Xiaoyan, Peking University, Beijing

WANG Fosong, Academic Divisions, Chinese Academy of Sciences

YAN Luguang, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of

Sciences

YOU Changfu, Tsinghua University, Beijing

YU Zhufeng, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing

In relation to studies and understanding of broad energy and pollution agement issues, the U.S National Academies have had an on-going program of cooperation with the Chinese Academies (Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering) for a number of years Joint study activities

man-date to the late 1990s and led to the publication in 2000 of Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States. This volume was the first exami-nation of the broad energy questions facing both nations at the turn of the new millennium

The Energy Futures study was followed in 2003 with a study publication

titled Personal Cars and China, which sought to provide insight to the Chinese

government in the inevitable development of a private car fleet And, in the fall

of 2003, the Chinese and U.S Academies organized an informal workshop in Beijing to review progress made to date in China in managing urban airsheds

This resulted in a proceedings publication titled Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China; The Challenges Ahead, published in 2004

As time has evolved it has become abundantly clear that the United States and China are inextricably intertwined through global competition for scarce energy resources and their disproportionate impact on the globe’s environmental health These realities reinforce the need for the United States and Chinese Academies

to continue to work closely together on a frequent and more intensive basis An underlying assumption is that China can benefit from assimilating U.S lessons learned from a longer history of dealing with the interplay between air pollution and energy production and usage Moreover, as both countries focus on energy independence, there are significant opportunities to learn from one another and

to cooperate on issues of mutual interest

Preface

the 2003 workshop which first explored the role of urbanization in China’s energy use and air pollution, it was concluded that a full-scale consensus study should be carried out to compare the United States and Chinese experiences Both countries’ respective Academies established committees comprised of leading experts in the fields of energy and air quality to jointly carry out this task Specifically, this study was to compare strategies for the management of airsheds in similar locales, namely ones located in highly industrial, coal-rich areas, as exemplified by Pittsburgh and Huainan, and others located in more modern, coastal/port and car- oriented areas, as exemplified by Los Angeles and Dalian It was anticipated that

a comparative analysis focusing at the local level should reveal how national and regional (state/provincial) policies affect local economies and their populations Visits to all four cities by the U.S and Chinese committee members were organized to learn as much as possible about the experiences of each city The teams met with city government officials, local university and research personnel, and with key private-sector actors The teams toured local industrial plants, power plants, research laboratories, transportation control centers, and air quality moni-toring facilities In order to understand local policy and compliance aspects, the teams also met with local, regional, and national regulatory officials This report has been prepared on the basis of those visits, as well as on the basis of the pro-fessional expertise of the U.S and Chinese committee members and the trove of data available on worldwide energy resources and consumption and environmental regimes and challenges in the United States and China

This study could not examine in detail the related and increasingly significant issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change We do, however, attempt to highlight the fact that this will be a central issue, perhaps

the issue, in discussions of energy and air pollution in the future We also give attention to opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions and some of the strategies that cities are able to and are already employing This is an area where continued cooperation between the U.S and Chinese Academies will be particularly use-ful Similarly, we did not focus on the impacts of long-range pollution transport, but we acknowledge that this is an important global issue, and one that links our two countries

As the goals and priorities of both countries evolve with respect to energy and air pollution, it is clear that there will be a number of different strategies avail-able, though certainly no magic bullets This large and diverse bilateral effort was designed to represent the different (and sometimes competing) viewpoints that might support these various strategies; throughout the process, each side learned valuable lessons from the other and came away with a better understanding of the circumstances unique to each country We hope that the resultant report is of value

to policy and decision makers not only in China but also in the United States, and that the lessons learned may be instructive to other countries currently experienc-

ing rapid urbanization We were honored to serve as chairs of these distinguished committees, and we compliment the U.S and Chinese committee members for their efforts throughout this study process

National Academy of Engineering Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Research Council

We wish to thank the late Alan Voorhees, member of the National Academy

of Engineering, the U.S National Academies, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Energy Foundation, and the Ford Motor Company for their financial support of this project The committee also wishes to thank officials of the cities of Huainan and Dalian for agreeing to participate in this study and for welcoming the committee during its October 2005 study tour

In particular, we wish to thank Mayor Zhu Jili, Vice Mayor Dong Zhongbing, and the rest of the Huainan Municipal government; the CPC Huainan Committee; Huainan Mining Group; Huainan Chemical Industrial Group; the Pingwei Power Plant; Zhao Baoqing and others at the Huainan Environmental Protection Bureau; Mayor Xia Deren and the rest of the Dalian Municipal government; Hua Xiujing and others at the Dalian Environmental Protection Bureau; the Dalian Traffic Direction and Control Center; the Dalian Environmental Monitoring Center; the CAS Institute of Chemical Physics; Dalian Steel Factory; Huaneng Power Factory; and the Xianghai Thermal Power Factory

On the U.S side, we wish to thank Lee Schipper and Wei-Shiuen Ng of EMBARQ; Dale Evarts of the U.S EPA; Todd Johnson and Sarath Guttikunda of the World Bank; Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato; Stephen Hepler

of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection; Mark Freeman and others at DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory; Cliff Davidson and others at Carnegie Mellon University; Jayme Graham, Roger Westman, and others at the Allegheny County Health Department; Rachel Filippini of the Group Against Smog and Pollution; FirstEnergy Bruce Mansfield Power Plant; U.S Steel Clairton Works; ALCOSAN; Bellefield Boiler Plant; Dave Nolle of DQE Energy Services; Michael Kleinman, Scott Samuelson, and Barbara Finlayson-Pitts of

Acknowledgments

the South Coast Air Quality Management District; Art Wong and others at the Port of Long Beach; Walter Neal of the BP Refinery; Alan Foley and others at the Southeast Resource Recovery Facility; and Art Rosenfeld of the California Energy Commission.

We would like to recognize the contributions made by Jack Fritz, former Staff Officer at the NAE and the original director of this study, Lance Davis and Derek Vollmer for carrying on this work, as well as Kathleen McAllister and Mike Whitaker, who assisted with research, compilation, and report review process Cui Ping and Li Bingyu of the CAS Institute of Engineering Thermo-physics also deserve recognition for their work in coordinating the efforts of this bilateral group

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee The purpose

of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will

assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to

ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process

We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Xuemei Bai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia; Hal Harvey, Hewlett Foundation; Jiming Hao, Tsinghua University; Peter Louie, Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department; Wei-Ping Pan, Western Kentucky University; Mansour Rahimi, University of Southern California; Kirk Smith, University of California, Berkeley; David Streets, Argonne National Laboratory; Richard Suttmeier, University of Oregon; Wenxing Wang, Global Environmental Institute; Yi-Ming Wei, Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Xiliang Zhang, Tsinghua University

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom-mendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release The review of this report was overseen by Maxine Savitz (Retired), Honeywell, Inc., and Lawrence Papay, PQR, Inc Appointed by the National Academies, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution

3 Air Pollution: Sources, Impacts, and Effects 61

Appendixes

A Web-Based Resources on Energy and Air Quality 339

C Summary of PM Source-Apportionment Studies in China 353

ACI Activated Carbon Injection for Hg removal

ANL Argonne National Laboratory, U.S

APA Administrative Procedure Act, U.S

API Air Pollution Index

AQM Air Quality Management

AWMA Air & Waste Management Association

CAA Clean Air Act, U.S

CAAQS California Ambient Air Quality Standards, U.S

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule, U.S

CAMD Clean Air Markets Database, U.S

CAMR Clean Air Mercury Rule, U.S

CARB California Air Resources Board, U.S

CAVR Clean Air Visibility Rule, also called Regional Haze Rule, U.S.CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

CBM Coal Bed Methane

CCP Chinese Communist Party, China

CEM Continuous Emission Monitor

CEQ Council on Environmental Quality, U.S.

CHP Combined Heat and Power

CCHP Combined Cooling, Heating and Power

CFB Circulating Fluidized Bed coal combustion

CI Compression Ignition

CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality Model

CMB Chemical Mass Balance receptor model

CNEMC China National Environmental Monitoring Center

CNG Compressed Natural Gas

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CSC China Standard Certification Center

CTL Coal to Liquids

CTM Chemical Transport Model

CUEC Comprehensive Urban Environmental Control, China

DE Distributed Energy production

DOE Department of Energy, U.S

DOI Department of Interior, U.S

DOT Department of Transportation, U.S

DRB Demonstrated Reserve Base, U.S

ECL Energy Conservation Law, China

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EIA Energy Information Administration, U.S

EIS Environmental Impact Statement

ELI Efficient Lighting Institute, China

EPA Environmental Protection Agency, U.S

EPACT Energy Policy Act of 2005, U.S

EPB Environmental Protection Bureau, China

ERS Environmental Responsibility System, China

ESP Electrostatic Precipitator

FBC Fluidized Bed Combustion

FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, U.S

FGD Flue Gas Desulfurization

FON Friends of Nature, China

FYP Five-Year Plan, China

g/km Grams per Kilometer

GASP Group Against Smog and Pollution, Pittsburgh, U.S.

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEF Global Environment Facility, China

HEW Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, U.S

HTS High-Temperature Superconductivity transmission lines

ICR Information Collection Request

IEA International Energy Agency

IFC International Finance Corporation

IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle coal power plant

IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments, U.S

LADWP Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, U.S

LAPCD Los Angeles Air Pollution Control District, U.S

LEVII Low Emission Vehicle Phase II, U.S

LFSO Limestone with Forced Oxidation SO2 removal

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

MANE-VU Mid Atlantic, Northeast Visibility Union, U.S

MLR Ministry of Land and Resources, China

MOST Ministry of Science and Technology, China

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard, U.S

NAE National Academy of Engineering, U.S

NAMS National Air Monitoring Stations, U.S

NAS National Academy of Science, U.S

NBB National Biodiesel Board, U.S

NCC National Coal Council, U.S

NDRC National Development and Reform Commission, China

NEET New and Emerging Environmental Technologies Data Base, U.S NEPA National Environmental Policy Act, U.S

NETL National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S

NOx Oxides of Nitrogen (Nitrogen Oxides)

NPC National Peoples’ Congress, China

NPC National Petroleum Council, U.S

NRC National Research Council, U.S

NSF National Science Foundation, U.S

NSPS New Source Performance Standards, U.S

NSR New Source Review, U.S

OBD On-Board Diagnostics for motor vehicle monitoring

ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S

OTAG O3 Transport Assessment Group, U.S

OTR O3 Transport Region, U.S

PAC Powdered Activated Carbon for Hg removal

PAMS Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations, U.S

PaDNR Pennsylvania Department of Natural Resources, U.S

PC Pulverized Coal power plant

PM Particulate Matter, includes TSP, PM10, PM2.5, and UP

PM10 Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 10 µm

PM2.5 Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 µm (also fine PM)PMF Positive Matrix Factorization receptor model

POLA Port of Los Angeles, U.S

PRC Peoples Republic of China

QESCCUE Quantitative Examination System on Comprehensive Control of

Urban Environment

RH Relative Humidity

RMB Renminbi, Chinese currency unit ≈0.13 dollar Also termed the yuan.RPO Regional Planning Organization, U.S

RVP Reid Vapor Pressure gasoline fuel specification

SBQTS State Bureau of Quality and Technical Standards, China

SCAG Southern California Association of Governments, U.S

SCAQMD South Coast Air Quality Management District, Los Angeles, U.S.SCE Southern California Edison, U.S.

SCIO State Council Information Office, China

SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction NOx removal

SCRAM Support Center for Regulatory Monitoring, U.S

SEPA State Environmental Protection Agency, China

SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission, China

SERRF Southeast Resource Recovery Facility, California, U.S

SETC State Economic and Trade Commission, China

SIP State Implementation Plan, U.S

SLAMS State and Local Air Monitoring Stations, U.S

SNCR Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction

SO2 Sulfur Dioxide

SO42– Sulfate

SoCAB South Coast Air Basin, Los Angeles and surrounding cities, U.S.STN Speciation Trends Network, U.S

SUV Sports Utility Vehicle

TOD Transit-Oriented Development

TSP Total Suspended Particulate, particles with aerodynamic diameters

~<30 µm

UCS Union of Concerned Scientists

UNCHE United Nations Conference on the Human Environment

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UP Ultrafine Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 0.1 µm

U.S United States

USC Ultra SuperCritical coal combustion

USC United Smoke Council, U.S

USDA Department of Agriculture, U.S

USFS Forest Service, U.S

USGS Geological Survey, U.S

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

WHO World Health Organization

WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership, U.S

Summary

The United States and China are the number one and two energy consumers

in the world China is the largest emitter of sulfur dioxide (SO2) worldwide, and the two countries lead the world in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions Energy con-sumption on a grand scale and the concomitant air pollution it can cause have myriad effects, from local to global, and there are a number of underlying issues which have a profound impact on their interplay Both countries possess massive coal reserves and intend to continue utilizing these resources, which have been a major source of pollution In spite of energy security concerns, the United States

is still the world’s largest consumer of petroleum, though China’s skyrocketing demand has made it the second largest consumer and a major source of demand growth This is, of course, being driven by rapid urbanization and, in particular,

by the rise of personal vehicle use

The United States has made great strides in improving air quality since the early part of the 20th century, by reducing domestic and transportation coal use and by refining combustion conditions in large centralized facilities Further improvements were achieved during the last half of the 20th century by better understanding the relationships between emissions and air quality, developing and applying pollution controls, increasing energy efficiency, and instituting a man-agement framework to monitor airsheds and to enforce regulations U.S ambient levels of SO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead (Pb) have largely been reduced to levels that comply with air quality standards However, ozone (O3), suspended particulate matter (PM), mercury (Hg), and a large list of Hazardous Air Pollutants are still at levels of concern O3 and a large portion of

PM are not directly emitted, but form in the atmosphere from other emissions, including SO2, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs),

concentrations are not linear and involve large transport distances, thereby plicating air quality management

com-China has focused on directly emitted PM and SO2 emissions and tions, with less regulatory attention being given to secondary pollutants such as

concentra-O3 or the sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium components of PM China has made great progress over the last 25 to 30 years in reducing emissions per unit of fuel use or production However, rapid growth in all energy sectors means more fuel use and product, which counteracts reductions for individual units Shut-tering obsolete facilities, which are often the most offensive polluters, has been

an effective strategy, as well as adopting modern engine designs and requiring cleaner fuels (e.g., low sulfur coal) While necessary measures, these represent the “low-hanging fruit,” and greater reductions for a larger number of emitters and economic sectors will be needed to attain healthful air quality The responsibility for developing and instituting many air quality and energy strategies rests with local and regional governments The importance of national policies and actions should not be overlooked, but the most appropriate solutions in China will require local knowledge, willpower, and implementation

To examine the challenges faced today by China and the United States in terms of energy use and urban air pollution, the U.S National Academies, in cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy

of Sciences, developed this comparative study In addition to informing national policies in both countries, the study is intended to assist Chinese cities in assess-ing their challenges, which include meeting increased energy demands, managing the growth in motor vehicle use, and improving air quality, all while maintaining high rates of economic growth This report is geared towards policy and towards decision makers involved in urban energy and air quality issues It identifies les-sons learned from the case studies of four cities (Pittsburgh and Los Angeles in the United States, Huainan and Dalian in China), addresses key technological and institutional challenges and opportunities, and highlights areas for continued cooperation between the United States and China Owing to the small number

of case studies, the committee decided against making many recommendations specifically tailored to the case study cities, or to cities in general, based solely on the experience of the four case studies Instead, the case studies provide insight into how energy use and air quality are managed at a local level, and how our cities might learn from one another’s experience This study does not examine in detail the related and increasingly significant issue of global climate change It does acknowledge that this will be a central issue in future discussions of energy and air pollution, and an area where continued cooperation between the U.S and Chinese Academies will be critical The study committee, composed of leading experts on energy and air quality from both countries, began its work in 2005

ENERGY RESOURCES, CONSUMPTION AND PROJECTIONS

In both countries, fossil fuels continue to dominate energy production Renewable energy offers the potential to decrease this dependence, but, except for hydropower and wood, has not yet been heavily exploited in either country.1

Due in large part to its abundance in both countries, coal has played an important role in electricity production and industrial processes, and its combustion has been

a major source of air pollution Coal has been and will continue to be primarily used for power production in the United States and China, but it can also be used

to create gaseous and liquid fuels, as well as other feed stocks, and may play a larger role, depending on prices, as an alternative to natural gas and petroleum Therefore, a primary challenge for both countries is to seek ways to utilize their coal resources in an environmentally acceptable manner Petroleum accounts for nearly 40 percent of the U.S primary energy consumption, mostly for liquid fuels

in the transportation sector China’s energy consumption is still dominated by industry (70 percent) and is supplied by coal (69 percent), but petroleum demand has increased rapidly in recent years in tandem with the burgeoning transportation sector (Figure S-1)

Neither country has sufficient domestic petroleum reserves to satisfy rent demand; in a business as usual scenario, both countries will be increasingly dependent upon imports Natural gas has played an important role in the United States, primarily due to environmental concerns; but limited supplies and higher prices have led to renewed interest in coal-fired power plant development In China, natural gas is not used widely, though China does possess large reserves

cur-of natural gas and cur-of coalbed methane (CBM) and is taking steps to develop these energy sources For both countries, future natural gas consumption will likely rely on advances in liquefied natural gas technologies and trade Finally, nuclear power, which is the second largest source of electricity in the United States, has been receiving renewed interest, owing to higher energy prices and concerns over CO2 emissions However, it is still unclear whether or not this sector will expand in the United States, and it still constitutes a small portion of total power production in China

Energy forecasting has proved challenging in both countries, owing to limited data and inaccurate projections of available resources and consumption Energy consumption and projection data are also used as the basis for creating emission inventories used in air quality management Energy security is a primary concern for both countries, and projected increases in fuel imports (notably petroleum) are a primary driver for the United States and China to pursue energy efficiency improvements and fuel substitution strategies Energy prices have an important impact on decisions regarding fuel consumption Rising natural gas prices in the United States have led to renewed interest in coal-fired capacity; and, in China,

1 There are notable exceptions, including western states in the United States which have reduced their fossil fuel dependence relative to the rest of the country.

Coal 68.9%

Renewables & Nuclear 7.2%

Natural gas 2.9%

Petroleum 21.0%

Petroleum 39.7%

Left and right

FIGURE S-1 Primary commercial energy consumption by fuel type, 2005

NOTE: China’s nuclear power production represents less than 1 percent of total consumption.

the rising cost of delivered coal, due to escalating costs of transportation by train, has led some coastal cities to import cheaper coal from other countries Rising fossil energy prices will also affect the development and use of alternative energy resources, such as biofuels

In terms of energy consumption, industrial uses continue to dominate in China, although buildings (residential and commercial) and transportation will increase their share in the coming years Buildings are a large consumer of energy

in the United States, in terms of electricity consumption for lighting and ances and energy for heating and cooling (40 percent of total energy consumed) Transportation is also an important energy consumer in the United States (nearly

appli-30 percent), almost exclusively in petroleum-based fuels China’s transportation sector currently consumes 8 percent of total energy, but this proportion is certain

to increase along with the increase in personal vehicle use, air travel, and goods shipment (Figure S-2 and Figure S-3) As such, fuel quality will be an important issue, in addition to its availability In many parts of China, fuel quality remains poor, especially diesel fuel, and consequently transportation fuels have a dispro-portionate impact on air quality

AIR POLLUTION TRENDS AND EFFECTS

The United States and China both regulate air pollution because of its effects

on human health, visibility, and the environment Both countries have adopted air quality standards for individual pollutants, although China’s air pollution index contains five separate classes, allowing for “compliance” at levels less stringent

than international standards In the United States, National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been established for O3, CO, SO2, NO2, Pb, PM2.5 (< 2.5 µm aerodynamic diameter), and PM10 (<10 µm aerodynamic diameter), based

on their adverse health effects Indoor air pollution, largely associated with the use

of coal for heating and cooking in China and with smoking, building materials, wood burning, and natural gas cooking in both countries—is an important health concern that is not regulated Respiratory and cardiovascular sickness and death rates are significantly higher in polluted compared to non-polluted areas in both

Commercial 18%

Industry

32%

Transportation 28%

Residential 21%

System losses 46%

Electricity 21%

Natural Gas 24%

Other 9%

Transportation 7.5%

Residential 10.5%

Commercial 6.2%

Construction 1.5%

ES-3

FIGURE S-3 China Energy consumption by sector, 2005.

to excessive air pollution and that, by 2020, China may be devoting 13 percent

of its projected GDP to healthcare costs associated with coal burning Like the

United States, China is ultimately bearing some of the external costs of air tion through healthcare costs In the United States, acid deposition and visibility impairment are being reduced, but it will still take decades and larger emission reductions to attain desired levels Plant life is more sensitive than humans are to

pollu-O3 and this has important implications for forest ecosystems and agricultural crop production China is currently studying the agricultural impacts of O3 exposure;

by some projections, O3 could cause 20-30 percent crop losses for soybeans and winter wheat by 2020

Largely as a result of air pollution regulation, the United States has witnessed substantial reductions in emissions and ambient concentrations of PM10, CO, SO2,

NOx, and Pb However, PM2.5 and O3 exceed healthful levels in many parts of the United States and China These require both local and regional emission reduc-tions of directly emitted PM2.5, SO2, NOx, and VOCs, which lead to secondary ozone formation In addition to controlling industrial sources (including power plants), the United States has instituted pollution controls for mobile sources and specifications for motor vehicle fuels This has led to marked decreases

in Pb emissions (China is currently experiencing similar decreases) and CO levels China’s emissions are predominantly industrial; SO2 emissions have been increasing, although soot and dust (the other two currently regulated emissions) have remained slightly more stable since the mid-1990s Although some Chinese cities measure and report O3 and other pollutants, local governments are only required to report on CO, NO2, SO2, and PM10 Of these, PM10 has most often been associated with unhealthy air quality However, regional and local studies in urbanized regions have observed excessive O3 and PM2.5 PM2.5 constitutes a large part of PM10 (50-70 percent) and therefore is an important urban and regional air pollutant, which is currently unregulated in China

An important lesson learned is that air pollution damage imposes major nomic costs, through premature mortality, increased sickness and lost productiv-ity, as well as decreased crop yields and ecosystem impacts Cost-benefit analyses

eco-in the United States show that emission reduction programs have provided much greater benefits than their costs, by a ratio of up to 40 to 1, according to some estimates

INSTITUTIONAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS

The United States has strong federal leadership and enforcement (U.S ronmental Protection Agency [EPA]) for NAAQS attainment This resulted from the realization that air pollution crossed political boundaries, and that some states and localities were not sufficiently controlling their emissions There is

Envi-a pEnvi-artnership between federEnvi-al, stEnvi-ate, Envi-and locEnvi-al Envi-agencies thEnvi-at Envi-addresses different

types of emissions, with partial federal financing available to state and local lution control agencies Federal highway funds can be withheld from areas that

pol-do not make good faith efforts to attain pollution standards In China, the central authority (State Environmental Protection Agency, SEPA) plays a minor role in air quality management in cities, with most activities carried out by local Environ-mental Protection Bureaus (EPBs) Cities and provinces have little motivation to reduce emissions that might affect neighboring regions Pollution reduction laws have been ineffective in the absence of enforcement, emissions monitoring, and ambient air monitoring Thus, monitoring and enforcement are key challenges for China The central government recognizes the importance of air quality and has enacted a series of regulations aimed at reducing pollutant emissions However, the local EPBs charged with the responsibility for enforcement often lack the necessary funding, technical capacity for monitoring, and/or the will to perform appropriately Moreover, local and provincial leaders are evaluated primarily on economic performance that does not consider the costs of pollution, often leading

to short-sighted decisions favoring economics over pollution control As a result, air quality management has been inconsistent

Emission controls are often less costly to implement than first envisioned Control costs are also not purely costs, as they create opportunities (e.g., manu-facturing and sales of pollution control and energy efficient equipment) that result in economic growth Appropriate programs can lead to economically efficient approaches for improving the environment, thereby further reducing costs In particular, both countries are experiencing a trend towards market-based approaches to air quality management (in contrast to the earlier command and control approach) The U.S successful SO2 “cap and trade” program is being adopted elsewhere, including in China Other tools, such as emission taxes and fees, can also be utilized to achieve air quality goals, but these likewise require judicious monitoring and enforcement China has made important strides in closing down inefficient and heavily polluting industries, and SEPA has recently become influential in reviewing environmental impact assessments and even in halting major construction projects Still, challenges remain in terms of managing remaining infrastructure and in planning for future growth

Aside from the EPA and SEPA, other agencies in both countries play roles

in air quality management Energy policies also impact air quality In the United States, the Department of Energy (DOE) plays a dominant role in setting policy,

as well as in conducting key research; but in China energy responsibilities are more diffuse Both countries might benefit from increased coordination between energy and air quality research and policy making While much data and informa-tion about emissions, ambient concentrations, and energy use are publicly avail-able in the United States (many of them over the Internet), such data are often sequestered in China The EPA has converted older data management methods to modern web-based systems The U.S Energy Information Administration has a similar compilation of energy data Public and scientific scrutiny of these data has

be applied in China Although China has made progress in reporting air quality indices to the public, the data needed for successful energy and air quality man-agement are still difficult to obtain and analyze Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have also played important roles in setting air quality and energy priori-ties in the United States; environmental NGOs are on the rise in China, but their active involvement is predicated on access to information

KEY INTERVENTIONS Energy Efficiency

Improved energy efficiency provides benefits for air quality and energy security, while reducing costs Energy efficiency can provide gains similar to,

or greater than those provided by specific pollution controls and can reduce the need for new power generators Cost-effective technology is currently available

to greatly improve energy efficiency across all energy use sectors Overall, energy intensity (a measure of energy consumption divided by GDP) has been declining

in the United States over the past 20 years; China’s intensity also declined from

1985 to 2000, but, since 2000, it has been increasing However, this broad measure does not always accurately reflect changes in energy efficiency The U.S economy has experienced a reduction in energy-intensive industries, as part of a transition

to a more service-based economy, and in many cases these energy-intensive tries have relocated in China Still, both countries have made important sectoral improvements, which could be implemented more broadly Energy efficiency has been an underutilized resource in both the United States and China

indus-China can make substantial and immediate gains through improvements in supply-side energy efficiency Its power generation and industrial sectors have lagged behind international standards for energy efficiency, although there is increasing interest in utilizing more efficient coal technologies (ultra-supercritical pulverized coal combustion or integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal combustion) China has made strong efforts to integrate energy systems, such as

in combined heat and power (CHP) and in combined cooling, heat, and power (CCHP) plants, both of which efficiently capture waste heat from power genera-tion and utilize it to provide heating and cooling for residential and commercial buildings CHP plants represent roughly 12 percent of total installed electrical capacity in China, and there are plans to double this share by 2020

Efficiency in the transportation sector is another area in which both the United States and China can improve In the United States, fuel economy standards imposed in the 1970s led to rapid improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, but owing to the popularity of less stringently regulated light duty trucks coupled with low fuel prices, overall fleet fuel efficiency has declined since the early 1990s China has developed fuel economy standards which surpass those of the United

States, though it is not yet clear how effectively these are being or will be enforced Hybrids, which combine electric batteries with conventional fuel tanks, are avail-able in both countries and offer substantial fuel savings However, higher initial costs and battery replacement costs make these vehicles prohibitively expensive for some consumers One additional means of improving efficiency in the urban transportation sector is by decreasing congestion and increasing the use of more efficient modes (e.g., public transportation).

Combustion and Pollution Control Technologies

It is less costly to plan for and implement pollution controls up front than to install them later Due to a lack of knowledge of pollution effects and controls, the United States did not act early enough to provide for emission controls on station-ary and mobile sources Thus, retrofitting is an important but expensive part of the U.S strategy to meet current air quality goals Fortunately, in the U.S experience, pollution control costs have declined and equipment costs are now anywhere from one-half to one-tenth the cost of older systems, and are more effective at pollutant removal China is mandating SO2 scrubbers on new power plants, and this is an important first step But monitoring and enforcement will be needed to ensure that controls are properly installed, maintained, and continually operated Future solutions to air quality goals may necessitate additional retrofits in China, such

as adding scrubbers to existing plants and reducing NOx emissions with low-NOxburners, or through selective catalytic reduction systems Coal-fired boilers have long lifespans (> 50 years) and decisions made at the time of construction persist for many decades; this is particularly important, given the rate at which China

is currently constructing new coal-fired power sets Lack of available technical expertise, supply bottlenecks, financing, short-sighted economic decisions, and/or political opposition may continue to limit the up-front implementation of the best available control technology; but leaving room for it in the future will make it easier to install when the necessary resources are available

Future pollution controls for stationary sources in the United States will focus on further reducing SO2 and NOx emissions from older facilities, reducing

Hg emissions from coal-fired power stations, and decreasing the introduction of

CO2 into the atmosphere Mercury capture is, in some cases, a co-benefit of other installed pollution controls, but ongoing research is focused on improving tech-nologies specifically designed for mercury control (e.g., activated carbon) Carbon capture and sequestration, though not currently mandated, are being studied and could be regulated in the United States in the future It is for this reason that IGCC technology is of great interest, as it permits the most efficient capture of CO2 and other pollutants from coal gas, before it is used to drive a turbine China has been

a world leader in developing coal gasification technologies, though it is currently used almost exclusively for chemical production One notable project involving both countries is FutureGen, a DOE-led venture which seeks to utilize IGCC with

to realize co-benefits such as the use of the captured CO2 as a medium to drive enhanced oil recovery

Renewable Energy

Renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, geothermal, energy, and biofuels, constitute important, but not large, fractions of energy portfolios in both countries But the current rate of growth in renewables is insufficient to meet the projected needs for fossil fuel energy Hydropower and wood to produce electricity are the dominant renewable resources currently being utilized, and are projected to remain so—although other technologies, notably wind turbines, have been improving and their use is rapidly expanding Several applications, such as solar water heating and wind turbines to generate electric-ity, are economical in the long term, but can require larger up-front investments and backup power versus more conventional sources Therefore, energy prices influence the market penetration of renewable technologies Government man-dates also play a role, as both countries (including state and local governments) have set targets for renewable energy consumption For the time being, except for hydroelectric, renewable electricity generation sources mostly fulfill niche applications, but they are showing promise as distributed or off-grid energy sup-plies, as they are cleaner and can be more cost-effective than extending existing power lines China has been expanding its capacity of small hydropower units, in order to electrify remote areas China has also made great strides in developing its domestic capacity to produce wind turbines, and it is already the world leader

waste-to-in production and use of solar water heaters Renewable technologies will also be critical to the eventual pursuit of a hydrogen economy Hydrogen can currently

be produced economically from natural gas for industrial purposes, but scale production will almost certainly rely on renewable energy for production,

large-if hydrogen is to be considered a clean alternative energy carrier

It is unclear whether some biofuels, including ethanol from non-cellulosic sources, provide more renewable energy than they consume in non-renewable energy for their production Biodiesel production has been increasing, but it still constitutes a minor fraction of total biofuel production In the United States, ethanol is predominantly derived from corn, while in China its sources are slightly more diversified, but still grain-based In both cases, this production is viewed as competitive with food markets and, ultimately, the future of ethanol as a viable petroleum alternative will depend on advances in cellulose-based production technologies and their successful commercialization However, ethanol has been effectively used as an additive for reformulated gasoline (RFG) for a number of years, in order to reduce certain harmful emissions; experiences in U.S metro-politan areas have shown that use of ethanol in RFG can help reduce total CO emissions, as well as toxics such as benzene

LESSONS FROM CITIES

In the United States, many cities, including Pittsburgh and Los Angeles, have successfully implemented policies and technologies to reduce various emissions and to improve air quality Local pollution prevention measures showed benefits

as early as the 1940s in Pittsburgh, when smoke controls in place likely saved the city from a severe air pollution episode that caused loss of life in nearby Donora Civil society played an important role in Pittsburgh’s approach to air quality management Early activist groups raised awareness of air pollution issues and paved the way for an open stakeholder process which allowed NGOs, such as the Group Against Smog and Pollution, to take part in policy formulation

Pittsburgh has diversified its economy since its industrial prime As local lution sources have been cleaned up or closed down, the city has focused more

pol-on regipol-onal pollutipol-on issues such as O3 and PM2.5 Indeed, as many U.S cities remediated local air pollution problems, it became apparent that some issues required regional solutions, as current pollution levels derive from a variety of energy uses and sectors on local and regional scales All of these sectors must participate in solutions to pollution As demonstrated in Los Angeles, emission controls can be applied to many small and medium-size sources that collectively have a large effect on pollution levels Federal intervention often leads to local regulations to solve what are ultimately regional challenges Air pollution does not obey boundaries, and while many Chinese cities are pointing out the impact that regional pollution has on local conditions, to date there have been few examples

of regional cooperation In the United States, the Los Angeles situation is more common, where regional and statewide organizations such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District and the California Air Resources Board both play critical and complementary roles in air quality management

Both U.S and Chinese cities have benefited from research, development, and technology transfer efforts in their universities, research institutes, and pro-fessional associations These efforts also provide local expertise for states and provinces and train professionals needed for regulatory, industrial, and educational enterprises Pittsburgh and Los Angeles both continue to rely on their local uni-versities and research institutes to address emerging challenges in energy and air pollution An ongoing challenge for many U.S cities is that U.S transportation and economic development policies have created the need to drive long distances, resulting in high personal vehicle use and automobile emissions A similar pattern

is now occurring in many Chinese cities, and their response has been to build more roads to alleviate congestion The rapid growth of traffic in Dalian and in similar Chinese cities will repeat the air quality and energy consumption mistakes

of Los Angeles and other U.S cities, if not better managed Chinese cities can benefit from their greater densities (relative to most U.S cities) and take steps to limit the need for personal vehicle use, as the cities continue to grow Some U.S cities are attempting to undo the effects of their sprawling development, but these efforts are slow and costly

Both cities benefited from efforts to relocate key industries away from urban centers and from closing down inefficient, highly polluting industries However, the net impacts of industrial relocation are not yet fully understood; moving pol-luting industries away from densely populated city centers has lowered the risk and exposure for numerous city dwellers, but the relocated industries may transfer the risk to rural or suburban residents; moreover, depending upon the location of the industries, the air quality impacts may not be fully reflected by data generated

at urban air quality monitoring stations Huainan has improved its air quality, though future plans to develop the city into a regional base for energy and chemi-cal production will necessitate further strengthening of the air quality management system As a coal-rich city, Huainan has benefited from local research and devel-opment, which has allowed it to begin harnessing coalbed methane and to utilize coal gasification technologies These may be usefully applied to the energy needs

of numerous other cities Dalian has enjoyed a reputation as one of the cleanest cities in China, and it has often established environmental quality standards which exceed national standards Other Chinese cities could benefit from adopting and pursuing similar aggressive standards

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

To meet the challenges of increasing energy consumption while achieving air quality goals, the U.S and Chinese governments (national and local) should consider the committee’s specific recommendations in 15 areas Some of the key recommendations are presented below A discussion of all of the committee’s recommendations and study findings may be found in Chapter 12

 Learn from experience China should learn from the successes and ures of the United States and other developed countries in reducing the influence

fail-of energy use on air quality Mistakes already made in the United States and elsewhere should be identified (as this report has attempted to do) and avoided

in China (Recommendation 1-a) Continued dialogue and information exchange among U.S and Chinese scientists and policy makers should be promoted through professional organizations, government support programs, and the National Acad-emies in both countries, to promote joint development of energy and pollution control strategies (Recommendation 1-b)

 Recognize and respond to external costs of energy production and use Recognize and respond to external costs of energy production and use

Both countries need to improve permitting policies and economic mechanisms that reflect the external costs of pollution that are being paid by others (e.g., through adverse health effects and degraded quality of life) These might include high enough taxes on emissions to make the addition of controls economically

attractive, and rebates or subsidies to encourage use of higher efficiency and renewable technologies (Recommendation 2-a)

 Establish and implement standards that protect human health Establish and implement standards that protect human health Both the United States and China should adopt minimum standards based on healthful air quality, which may require revising currently accepted standards Local govern-

ments should be able to enact more stringent local standards, but there should not

be a sliding scale based on the level of economic development (Recommendation 3-a) PM2.5 control should be emphasized over, but not at the expense of, PM10and O3 reductions (Recommendation 3-f)

 Address pollution sources comprehensiely Address pollution sources comprehensiely There has to be participation

in emissions reductions by all sectors, not just by the major industries ment and monitoring, as well as incentives, are needed to assure that emission reductions are implemented and maintained (Recommendation 4-e) Governments must improve policy incentives to adopt specific control technologies Policies requiring the implementation of pollution controls are a positive first step, but these policies must be developed in tandem with appropriate incentives to over-come financial or other barriers (Recommendation 4-g)

Enforce- Strengthen SEPA�s role in oerseeing air �uality planning and enforce� Strengthen SEPA�s role in oerseeing air �uality planning and enforce� ment The Chinese government needs to expand SEPA’s staff and influence over local air quality surveillance, management, and enforcement Better coordination

is needed between national and provincial authorities (Recommendation 5-a) As

in the United States, China needs formal emission reduction plans specific to cities

and regions that are independently evaluated and enforced at the national level

These plans should specify the activities that will bring areas into compliance with standards and that will keep areas already in compliance from becoming

more polluted (Recommendation 5-b)

 Realize the potential of energy ef��ciency improements Realize the potential of energy ef��ciency improements The United States and China should consider evaluating the best energy efficiency standards for all energy sectors that have been formulated by each country, by their states/prov-inces, or by other countries Efficiency standards, like air quality standards, will need to be properly enforced in order to be effective (Recommendation 6-a)

 Promote ef��cient transportation systems and sustainable urban design Promote ef��cient transportation systems and sustainable urban design

Transit-oriented design and smart growth policies should be implemented to develop new urban areas or to redevelop existing areas, particularly in rapidly developing cities with high projected growth Bus rapid transit (BRT) should be considered in a number of U.S and Chinese cities, as it represents a low-cost (relative to subways and light-rail) transit system easily adapted to existing infra-

Traffic management systems, such as the system in place in Dalian, should be implemented in other Chinese cities, in order to manage the rapidly expanding vehicle fleets and to limit congestion (Recommendation 7-c)

 Accelerate improements in fuel economy and reductions in mobile source Accelerate improements in fuel economy and reductions in mobile source emissions The United States should examine the present Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards or alternative incentives to improving fuel economy, to develop standards tailored to the U.S market and vehicle stock (Recommendation 8-a) China should enforce their fuel economy standards and consider other, possibly more effective alternatives as well (Recommendation 8-b) China should continue to increase its vehicle emission standards and to enforce those standards; China should also improve the quality of its refined fuels (Recommendation 8-d)

 Improe energy ef��ciency in buildings Improe energy ef��ciency in buildings Building codes in both countries should be updated to require energy-saving technologies (e.g., CCHP; Recom-mendation 9-a) Subsidies, incentives, and low cost financing should be enhanced

in both countries to encourage up-front investments in energy efficient gies that will be paid back in future cost savings (Recommendation 9-b) Both countries should allow or encourage utilities to decouple profits from energy sales This is occurring to some degree in the United States, but needs to be accelerated, and must be implemented in China (Recommendation 9-c)

technolo-0 Promote cleaner technologies for heat and po�er generation Promote cleaner technologies for heat and po�er generation Incentives are needed in the United States and China to implement cleaner coal conversion technologies (e.g., IGCC), more efficient generation methods, and productive use

of waste heat (Recommendation 10-a) Coal washing and sieving rules should be implemented and enforced in all sectors of the coal industry in China, to reduce

SO2 and to increase combustion efficiency (Recommendation 10-b) Following the example of cities such as Huainan, coal-rich areas should implement systems

to recover and make effective use of CBM and coke oven gas (Recommendation 10-d)

 Plan in adance for pollution control Plan in adance for pollution control Better evaluation tools need to

be promulgated, specific to the United States and China, which assist project designers in evaluating the costs and benefits of different energy conservation/pollution control alternatives (Recommendation 11-a) Projects need to be planned with the expectation that pollution controls and retrofits may be required, or deemed economical, in the future, even if benefits do not exceed costs by today’s standards (Recommendation 11-b)

 Accelerate deelopment and use of rene�able energy sources Accelerate deelopment and use of rene�able energy sources Both countries should continue to encourage the development, production, and use of renewable energy wherever possible, through various policy instruments (e.g., renewable portfolio standards, tax rebates, preferential purchasing) (Recommen-dation 12-a)

 Expand public participation in Chinese air �uality management efforts Expand public participation in Chinese air �uality management efforts

SEPA needs to convince public officials that the advantages of disseminating energy use, emissions, and air quality data outweigh the disadvantages Such transparency will result in better data quality, by providing feedback on deficien-cies to data generators (Recommendation 13-a) SEPA and provincial agencies

in China should continue to increase their efforts in outreach and education to engage the public in helping address air pollution problems, and to encourage public participation in environmental impact studies and decisions affecting the environment (Recommendation 13-d) Local governments in China should encourage more volunteer groups focused on improving the environment (Recom-mendation 13-f)

 Improe capacity to address current and future issues through research Improe capacity to address current and future issues through research and education Both countries need to strengthen research and development in clean energy, energy efficiency, and air quality research There is also a need for improved research across disciplines, in order to better understand the linkages between energy and air quality (Recommendation 14-a) Chinese cities need to develop local and regional technical training centers and professional education centers, in order to build the capacity to operate and maintain pollution controls

and advanced technologies (Recommendation 14-e)

 Expand cooperation on energy and air �uality issues, including efforts to Expand cooperation on energy and air �uality issues, including efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Given the existing interest in climate change,

it is imperative that the United States and China begin substantial cooperation

on issues to reduce greenhouse gas emissions In addition to energy efficiency, there is great potential for collaborative research on improving CO2 capture and sequestration technologies (Recommendation 15-a) China will benefit from fur-ther cooperation on developing regional air quality management Future activities should complement the ongoing work between Guangdong and Hong Kong, and efforts to develop SEPA’s regional offices Research universities and governments should also increase collaboration on measuring and monitoring PM2.5 and O3, as well as air quality forecasting (Recommendation 15-c)

The United States and China are the two largest consumers of energy in the world, and projections for both countries indicate that their consumption will continue to rise in the foreseeable future Both countries are mostly dependent upon fossil fuels for their energy supplies (over 85 percent in the United States and over 90 percent in China); thus, in addition to meeting increasing energy demands, the United States and China must confront the air quality challenges that result from fossil fuel consumption on such a large scale While the United States has made progress in remediating much of the air pollution experienced

in its heavy industrial period in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, it still faces air pollution challenges resulting from electricity production, vehicle use, and numerous other sources China is presently in the midst of a period of rapid industrialization accompanied by meteoric economic growth on a very short time scale and, thus, it is experiencing similar if not more severe pollution than has plagued the United States

Air pollution has historically been viewed as a nuisance, but also, in some cases, as a sign of economic progress; it was and sometimes still is thought to be

a requisite to development However, research on air pollution effects has led to

an increased understanding of the linkages between fossil fuel combustion and air quality and, more importantly, the links between health and air quality Health studies in the United States and elsewhere in the mid-20th century raised aware-ness that air pollution, whether from industrial sources or from a then emerging new source, the automobile, had major impacts on morbidity and mortality This improved understanding paved the way for regulation and other efforts to combat air pollution in its various forms, and further research has exposed its effects on ecosystems, agriculture, and general quality of life This research, in turn, has

1 Introduction

made on balancing the interplay between energy consumption and air quality

On the whole, the U.S experience provides some rich lessons which China, with the benefit of this hindsight, may incorporate into its quest for environmentally sustainable development

China presents a particularly interesting case, because, in addition to its known economic growth and industrial transition, it is also undergoing a demo-graphic transition of rapid urbanization, which will play a central role in its ability

well-to manage its energy use and air quality China’s urban population in 1980 was less than 20 percent of its total population; today approximately 40 percent of residents live in cities (compared to over 80 percent in the United States), and this share will increase to 60 percent of the population by 2030 (UN, 2005) China is home

to over 100 cities with 1 million or more residents in each city—fewer than half

of which achieve China’s own minimum standards for air quality (SEPA, 2007) Further complicating this trend is the fact that urbanization in other countries has brought with it increased rates of energy consumption and vehicle use

Although the United States continues to face air quality challenges, the lessons it has learned (successes and failures) in managing air quality should be relevant to the Chinese experience Additionally, there are lessons to be learned from developments within China, which might be instructive to any number of developing cities facing similar challenges Finally, in consideration of the glo-balized economy, increasing competition for finite resources, and a shared global environment, it is important to keep in mind that the decisions that one country

or city makes today can certainly have a lasting impact on the opposite side of the world

In order to examine the challenges faced today by China and the United States

in terms of energy use and urban air pollution, the U.S National Academies, in cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy

of Sciences, developed this comparative study, building on nearly a decade of inter-Academy collaboration In addition to informing national policies in both countries, the study is intended to assist Chinese cities in assessing their chal-lenges, including the dual challenges of continued use of coal as the dominant source of energy and the rapidly increasing use of private vehicles, in the context

of rapid economic growth, preservation of the environment, and ensuring the quality of life for their citizens This report is geared towards policy and decision makers at all levels of government, as they seek to balance urban energy con-sumption with air quality management It identifies lessons learned from the case studies of four cities (Pittsburgh and Los Angeles in the United States, Huainan and Dalian in China); the study addresses key technological and institutional chal-lenges and opportunities, and highlights areas for continued cooperation between the United States and China on energy and air quality issues Specifically, the study was designed to:

• Describe current and planned energy uses for different economic sectors

in China and the United States and their effects on air quality;

• Compare and contrast the evolution of energy use and air quality ment between two pairs of cities in China and the United States;

manage-• Specify energy strategies that have been successful and unsuccessful in improving urban air quality, and identify leapfrogging opportunities; and

• Compare successful energy and air quality approaches with current cies in China and the United States and recommend potential modifications to current trends

poli-These issues are discussed in detail in the chapters that follow One lary benefit of the study process was that it provided useful cross-sector and cross-country exchanges, particularly among local stakeholders Having local environmental managers interact with scientific and technical experts, and being able to “kick the tires” on a technology, is valuable to any city seeking to meet its energy needs without compromising air quality However, owing to the small number of case studies, the committee decided against making many recommen-dations specifically tailored to the case study cities, or to cities in general, based solely on the experience of the four case studies Instead, the case studies provide insight into how energy use and air quality are managed at a local level, and how our cities might learn from one another’s experience

ancil-MAJOR ISSUES

Coal supplies are abundant in both countries, but conventional coal bustion is a major source of criteria air pollutants (e.g., SO2), as well as of CO2emissions In recent decades, the United States has favored natural gas as a cleaner-burning substitute, but supply constraints and increased prices have led to renewed interest in coal and other alternatives China’s rapid economic growth has largely been supported by coal (~ 2 billion metric tons1 consumed annually); but China is also seeking cleaner sources such as natural gas and renewable or alter-native fuels for its transport sector and for use in selected urban areas Petroleum remains the dominant transportation fuel in both countries, and rising imports have cautioned both countries to focus on energy security as part of their overall energy policy strategies Chapter 2 examines these and other issues related to major energy resources, specifically coal, petroleum, natural gas, and nuclear In addition to a discussion of current resources and consumption, the chapter looks

com-at future projections for the continued use of energy resources

The impacts of urban air pollution as a result of conventional coal combustion are substantial and well known The traditional mix of particulate matter (PM)

1 Due to the broad range of units used in energy calculations, between countries and across sectors, energy figures will be reported in both the commonly accepted unit as well as a standardized unit (exajoules or EJ) for comparison See Appendix D for information on energy conversions.