Oil Market OutlookGuy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration November 30, 2004 Houston, TX... Crude Oil Price ProjectionsShort-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 West Tex
Trang 1Oil Market Outlook
Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration
November 30, 2004 Houston, TX
Trang 2Major Events and World oil Prices
Iran-Iraq War Saudis abandon
"swing producer" role
Iraq Invades Kuwait
Operation Desert Storm
Asian economic crisis;
Iraq oil-for-food
OPEC cutbacks
9/11 attacks
Venezuela Unrest Strong Demand Growth
Oil prices fluctuate widely over past three decades
Trang 3Crude Oil Price Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004
West Texas Intermediate
Crude oil prices rise again in 2004
Trang 4World Oil Demand Growth
World oil demand growth currently surging at very high rates
Trang 5U.S Petroleum Products Demand Growth
(Change from Year Ago)
* Sum of distillate and residual fuel.
U.S demand growth likely to slow in 2005 under high prices
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004
Trang 6Non-OPEC Supply (Change from Year Ago)
Trang 7Yearly OPEC Crude Oil Production
Trang 8World Oil Spare Production Capacity
Trang 9OECD* Commercial Petroleum Stocks
Previous 5-year min/max range
Projection
OECD oil stocks remain in low range
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004
Trang 10U.S Commercial Crude Oil Stocks
Monthly
US crude oil stocks likely to remain tight (again) this winter
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004
Trang 11Million Barrels per Day
The World’s 15 Largest Oil Suppliers, 2004
Saudi Arabia and Russia remain leading world oil suppliers Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2004)
Trang 121970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0
50 100 150 200 250 300
World Marketed Energy Consumption by
Trang 131970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0
50 100 150 200 250
Oil remains the dominant energy source through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 14World Energy Use in the Transportation
Sector, 2001-2015
Transportation sector remains large share of total oil use Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 15World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Trang 16OPEC EE/FSU Other
World Oil Consumption and Production
2001, 2010, and 2015
Developing Asia drives oil consumption growth Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 17Middle East OPEC Non-Middle East OPEC Non-OPEC
U.S Dependence on Imported Oil
2002, 2010, and 2015
US reliance on oil imports rises Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 18Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait
Venezuela
Russia
Libya Nigeria
United States
China
Mexico
Qatar Algeria
Norway
Kazakhstan
Brazil Azerbaijan
Trang 190.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Price Cases, 2001-2015
Nonconventional oil production on the rise Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 204.2 1.8
1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9
1.7
Saudi Arabia
Canada Iraq Kazakhstan Kuwait Russia United Arab Emirates
Brazil Venezuela Mexico Azerbaijan Angola
Other
Million Barrels per Day
Net Additions in World Oil Productive Capacity,
2001-2015
A number of countries are expected to add capacity Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 21Middle East Oil Productive Capacity by
Country, 2001 and 2015
The Middle Eastern share of world oil production capacity grows
through 2015 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Trang 22• In the short-term, tight markets and political tensions
keep world oil prices high.
• Through 2015, oil remains the dominant source of
worldwide energy use (39% of total energy
• U.S dependence on Persian Gulf OPEC will increase, but other OPEC and non-OPEC producers will remain important U.S suppliers.